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School of GeographyFACULTY OF EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
Relationships between migration, commuting and household structure
Oliver Duke-Williams
www.geog.leeds.ac.uk/people/.o.duke-williams/
Counting migrants and groups of migrants
• Migrants move from origins to destinations
• People may move singly or in groups
• Up until the 2001 Census, migrants were counted (in the Census) in two ways
• As individual migrants
• As wholly moving households
A wholly moving household
Wholly moving households or not?
Counting migrants in the 2001 Census
The 2001 Census introduced the concept of the moving group
• Migrants within households are grouped on the basis of their common origins
Moving groups
Absolute numbers of migrants
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
0-4
5-9
10-1
4
15-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75-7
9
80-8
4
85-8
9
90+
Age
Mig
ran
ts
Male Female
Migrants within UK, 2000-1 Source: 2001 Census Special Migration Statistics
Migration rates
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
3500-
4
5-9
10-1
4
15-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75-7
9
80-8
4
85-8
9
90+
Age
Mig
ran
ts /
100
0 p
erso
ns
Male Female
Migrants within UK – rates per 1000 at destination, 2000-1 Source: 2001 Census Special Migration Statistics
Absolute numbers of migrants by origin type
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
0-4
5-9
10-1
4
15-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75-7
9
80-8
4
85-8
9
90+
Age
Mig
ran
ts
UK district Unknown Outside UK
Migrants within and into UK, 2000-1 Source: 2001 Census Special Migration Statistics
Migration connectivity
Migration connectivity is a simple measure of how well places are connected to other places
• It is affected by geography, but useful for comparing alternative characteristics given a fixed geography
Origin connectivity
oic_wmhh3
0.01 - 0.08
0.09 - 0.13
0.14 - 0.21
0.22 - 0.31
0.32 - 0.48
oic_whmm1
0.01 - 0.13
0.14 - 0.20
0.21 - 0.28
0.29 - 0.38
0.39 - 0.70
oic_whmm2
0.01 - 0.10
0.11 - 0.16
0.17 - 0.23
0.24 - 0.33
0.34 - 0.57
Destination connectivity
dic_whmm3
0.01 - 0.09
0.10 - 0.13
0.14 - 0.19
0.20 - 0.27
0.28 - 0.44
dic_whmm1
0.00 - 0.13
0.14 - 0.21
0.22 - 0.31
0.32 - 0.48
0.49 - 0.90
dic_whmm2
0.01 - 0.10
0.11 - 0.16
0.17 - 0.23
0.24 - 0.33
0.34 - 0.51
About the BHPS
The British Household Panel Survey
• A multi-purpose panel survey
• Interviews all adults in a set of representative households
• First wave in 1991: 5,500 households, 10,000 individuals
BHPS: Migrants
The BHPS is a useful source of information about migrants
• Individuals are tracked over many years
• The household context is clear
• Respondents are asked about intentions to migrate, and about reasons for recent migration events
Limitations
• The sample size is small
• The geography is limited
• Migration tends to be a cause of attrition in longitudinal data sets
BHPS data studied
Individuals from wave J (2000-1) were studied
• This roughly matches the transition period over which migration is recorded in the 2001 Census
• The data were linked to the next wave, in order to identify those who had moved during the period
Characteristics of migrants in the BHPS
Net balances by region, for movers within UK
Region Outflow Inflow Net gain
Inner London 244 246 2
Outer London 514 514 0
R. of South East 1736 1728 -8
South West 846 852 6
East Anglia 395 402 7
East Midlands 794 811 17
West Midlands Conurbation 348 352 4
R. of West Midlands 489 483 -6
Greater Manchester 380 376 -4
Merseyside 177 180 3
R. of North West 429 434 5
South Yorkshire 235 229 -6
West Yorkshire 315 314 -1
R. of Yorks & Humberside 324 323 -1
Tyne & Wear 222 226 4
R. of North 362 365 3
Wales 2548 2567 19
Scotland 3010 3026 16
Northern Ireland 146 146 0
Total 13633 13633 0
Characteristics of migrants in the BHPS
All respondents are asked when they moved to their present address
• Data are highly dominated by recent moves
• Other moves tend to be within last 10 years or so
• The same pattern is apparent in other waves
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1930 1950 1970 1990
Year moved to present address
Co
un
t
1
10
100
1000
10000
1970 1980 1990 2000
Year moved to present address
Co
un
t
Characteristics of migrants in the BHPS
Age profile of migrants
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 20 40 60 80 100
Age
Fre
qu
ency
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
0-4
5-9
10-1
4
15-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75-7
9
80-8
4
85-8
9
90+
Age
Mig
ran
ts
Male Female
Wishes to move
Separate questions ask whether respondents would
• prefer to move
• expect to move within the next year
Prefers to move? Frequency Percent
Don't know 191 1%
Stay here 9915 66%
Prefer to move 4975 33%
Total 15081 100%
Expect to move in next yearFrequencyPercent
Don't know 641 4%
Yes 2073 14%
No 12367 82%
Total 15081 100%
Preference and expectation
How to preference and expectation relate to each other?
Prefer to move?
Expect to move
Don't know Yes No Total
Don't know 19% 18% 63% 191
Stay here 2% 6% 91% 9915
Prefer to move 8% 29% 64% 4975
Prefer to move
Does preference vary by age or sex? Age group
Prefer to move 16-24 25--44 45-64 65+
Male
Don't know 1% 2% 1% 1%
Stay here 57% 54% 66% 78%
Prefer to move 37% 40% 27% 18%
Total 1071 2752 2119 1235
Female
Don't know 2% 1% 1% 1%
Stay here 54% 58% 69% 79%
Prefer to move 42% 39% 27% 17%
Total 1213 3108 2417 1688
Does preference vary by household type?
Prefer to move? Age group
16-24 25-44 45-64 65+
Single Non-Elderly
Don't know 2% 2% 2% 0%
Stay here 55% 50% 62% 67%
Prefer to move 43% 48% 35% 33%Base 148 448 486 3
Single Elderly
Don't know 2% 1%
Stay here 75% 84%
Prefer to move 23% 15%
Base 104 1133
Prefer to move? Age group 16-24 25-44 45-64 65+
Couple No ChildrenDon't know 2% 1% 1% 1%Stay here 53% 59% 73% 79%Prefer to move 45% 40% 26% 20%Base 251 1073 1725 1357
Couple: dep childrenDon't know 1% 1% 1% 0%Stay here 60% 60% 70% 90%Prefer to move 39% 39% 29% 10%Base 738 3054 751 20
Couple: non-dep childrenDon't know 2% 1% 1% 0%Stay here 57% 56% 71% 82%Prefer to move 41% 42% 28% 18%Base 450 344 910 135
Prefer to move? Age group
16-24 25-44 45-64 65+
Lone par: dep children
Don't know 2% 2% 2% 0%
Stay here 53% 52% 57% 64%
Prefer to move 45% 46% 41% 36%
Base 220 460 104 11
Lone par: non-dep children
Don't know 1% 2% 1% 1%
Stay here 66% 50% 69% 85%
Prefer to move 33% 48% 30% 14%
Base 127 122 183 104
Prefer to move? Age group
16-24 25-44 45-64 65+
2+ Unrelated adults
Don't know 2% 3% 5% 0%
Stay here 58% 54% 52% 80%
Prefer to move 40% 44% 43% 20%
Base 208 112 21 15
Other Households
Don't know 0% 0% 0% 2%
Stay here 47% 50% 68% 72%
Prefer to move 53% 50% 32% 26%
Base 58 64 87 53
Is expectation realised?
How well does an expectation of a move predict an actual move?
• Link waves
• Compare expect to move vs. actual move status
• Can look at:
• Preference to move
• Expecting to move
PreferenceIndividual
mover status Total
Non-moverMover
within GB
Don't know 86% 14% 164
Stay here 95% 5% 9068
Prefer to move 82% 18% 4395Total 91% 9% 13627
Expectation
Individual mover status Total
Non-moverMover within
GB
Don't know 86% 14% 561
Yes 53% 47% 1679
No 97% 3% 11387Total 91% 9% 13627
What about a year later?
What about a year later?
• Are expected moves deferred?
Expectation
Individual mover status Total
Non-mover Mover within GB
Don't know 84% 16% 385
Yes 73% 27% 696
No 95% 5% 9101
Total 93% 7% 10182
PreferenceIndividual mover status
Total
Non-moverMover within
GB
Don't know 84% 16% 116
Stay here 95% 5% 7150Prefer to move 88% 12% 2916
Total 93% 7% 10182
Reasons stated for moving
1. Those who expected to move and did move
2. Those who did not expect to move, but did move
Reasons for moving
Stated reasons for an actual move incude employment reasons (various) and non-employment related
Moved for employment
reasonsExpected to
move Yes No Total
Yes 20% 80% 257
No 10% 90% 100
Moved for
employment reasons
Preference Yes No Total
Don't know 24% 76% 21
Stay here 10% 90% 383
Prefer to move 11% 89% 761
Non-employment reasons
Look at reasons for moving amongst those who expected to move and did move
Reason Frequency PercentOther 34 14%Mve to college 33 14%Mve in wth partn 30 13%Evicted, reposs 19 8%Split from partn 15 6%Larger accom 12 5%Smaller accom 11 5%Better accom 10 4%Job reasn, self 9 4%Closr fam, friend 8 3%Own accom 8 3%Mve from family 7 3%Wants change 6 3%To specfc place 6 3%Job reasn, othr 5 2%Mve in wth family 4 2%Area unsafe 4 2%Area unfriendly 4 2%Buy accom 3 1%Left college 2 1%Dislkd area 2 1%Mve in wth friend 1 0%Retirement 1 0%Health reasons 1 0%To rural envirn 1 0%Total 236 236
Reasons for moving
What about those who moved, but had not expected to do so?
Reason Frequency Percent
Other 11 12%
Split from partn 10 11%
Larger accom 10 11%
Evicted, reposs 9 9%
Smaller accom 9 9%
Better accom 9 9%
Mve in wth partn 7 7%
Mve to college 6 6%
Own accom 6 6%
Mve in wth family 3 3%
Mve from family 3 3%
Health reasons 3 3%
Other aspects 2 2%
To specfc place 2 2%
Closr fam, friend 1 1%
Job reasn, self 1 1%
Dislkd prev acc 1 1%
Area unfriendly 1 1%
Dislkd area 1 1%
Total 95 95
Reasons for moving
Are reasons for moving different for those who do / do not move?
• If respondents indicated that they would like to move, they were asked for reasons why
• Did those who followed through on this wish quote different reasons?
Individual mover status Reason to move Non-mover Mover within GB
Larger accom 16% 16%Other 5% 9%Dislikes area 10% 8%Own accommodation 3% 6%Feels isolated 5% 5%Other aspects 5% 5%To specific area 8% 5%Area unsafe 5% 5%Family reasons 4% 5%To buy somewhere 1% 5%Smaller/cheaper acc 3% 4%Unfriendly area 6% 4%Wants a change 5% 4%Another type 3% 3%Better accom 2% 3%Reduce travelling 1% 2%Occupation reasons 1% 2%To rural environ 6% 2%Noise 2% 2%No stairs 3% 2%Dislikes accom 1% 1%For childs education 1% 1%Traffic 2% 1%From urban environ 1% 1%Health reasons 0% 0%Retirement 0% 0%More privacy 1% 0%No reason 0% 0%Total 3590 794
Reasons for moving
Do stated reasons for moving vary by household type?
• Look at most commonly cited reasons by individuals in different household types
Household type Reasons PercentSingle Non-elderly Mve to college 17%
Other 11%
Split from partn 11%
Base 160
Single-elderly Health reasons 22%
Closr fam, friend 16%
Evicted, reposs 11% Base 37
Reasons for moving
Household type Reasons PercentCouple No Children Mve in wth partn 20%
Buy accom 11%
Smaller accom 8%
Base 340
Couple: dep children Larger accom 28%
Other 12%
Mve in wth partn 9%
Base 364
Couple: non-dep children Smaller accom 15%
Other 12%
Split from partn 10% Base 41
Household type Reasons Percent
Lone par: dep children Split from partn 25%
Other 13%
Evicted, reposs 13%
Base 55
Lone par: non-dep children Split from partn 20%
Evicted, reposs 20%
Mve in wth family 20%
Base 20
Household type Reasons Percent
2+ Unrelated adults Evicted, reposs 23%
Mve to college 21%
Better accom 11%
Base 73
Other Households Other 22%
Evicted, reposs 17%
Mve in wth partn 17%
Base 23
Effect of migration
To what extent has migration been associated with a change in circumstances?
RG Social class
Do migrants experience a change in Registrar General’s Social Class?
RG Social Class Wave J Wave K Change
Professional occ 46 50 9%
Managerial & technical occ 233 252 8%
Skilled non-manual 177 170 -4%
Skilled manual 146 137 -6%
Partly skilled occ 110 105 -5%
Unskilled occ 26 25 -4%
Armed forces 1 0 -100%
Tenure
Change in tenure
• Using all persons
• Use person 1 only
Tenure Wave J Wave K Change
Owned Outright 140 145 4%
Owned with Mortgage 502 529 5%
Local Authority rented 171 142 -17%
Housing Assoc. rented 49 62 27%
Rented from Employer 18 18 0%
Rented private unfurnished 132 127 -4%
Rented private furnished 186 174 -6%
Tenure Wave J Wave K Change
Owned Outright 97 91 -6%
Owned with Mortgage 325 319 -2%
Local Authority rented 123 98 -20%
Housing Assoc. rented 35 40 14%
Rented from Employer 13 13 0%
Rented private unfurnished 89 93 4%
Rented private furnished 121 148 22%
Change in household type
• Select movers in wave K
• Compare household type in wave K with household type wave J
• Fluctuations to household type due to age of children
• Moves out of families into households of unrelated adults
Household type Wave J Wave K Change
Single Non-Elderly 971 986 2%
Single Elderly 1115 1150 3%
Couple No Children 2077 2163 4%
Couple: dep children 1926 1931 0%
Couple: non-dep children 617 547 -11%
Lone par: dep children 554 479 -14%
Lone par: non-dep children 262 255 -3%
2+ Unrelated adults 133 153 15%
Other Households 100 91 -9%
Conclusions
• BHPS permits detailed analysis of relationships between migrants and their household context
• Demonstrates changes in household structure associated with migration events
• Motivations for moving are many and varied
