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Republic of MozambiqueNATIONAL INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY
(INAM)
SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM (FIFTH SESSION)
SEYCHELLES, 19-23 SEPTEMBER 2016
Mozambique: East coast of Southern Africa (10 º 27 ‘, 26 º 52' S and 30 º 12 ‘, 40 º 51' E), downstream of 9 major regional rivers.
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Surface: 799,380 km2
Extension: 2.700 km of coastline
Climate: Tropical with 2 Seasons
Summer - Rainy and hot (October-March)
Winter – Dry (April-September)
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• In Mozambique the mandated institution to prepare and providemeteorological information is the National Institute ofMeteorology (INAM).
• INAM is a public Institute, under the Minister of Transport andCommunication that among other activities, provides climatemonitoring and forecasting through the Research Department.
In the beginning of the rainy season, INAM prepares a seasonalforecast using the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT).
Predicters are the SST’s, Prec, Geopotential, etc. and predictantsare data from ground stations and gridded data (mozgrid2 andarc2).
This forecast is discussed in a regional forum called SouthernAfrica Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) and a regionalstatement is produced.
Seasonal Forecast
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Regional Maps
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Downscaling of the seasonal Forecast
Downscaled maps from the SARCOF Forecast
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After the downscale, the forecast is sent to the stakeholdersfor the preparation of the Sectorial Outlook. This process isfollowed by a pre-meeting for intersectorial outlookharmonization and interpretation, and then is issued aunique document composed by a brief Climate outlook forthe season that is finally presented in a public session ofNCOF.
NCOF is a dialogue framework which its main purpose isto bring together the producers of the climate informationand the users. The members of this forum are the followingSectors: Meteorology (INAM), Water (DNGRH) ,Agriculture (DINAS), Health (DNSP) and DisasterManagement (INGC).
National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF)
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Interpretation of seasonal outlook for Agriculture/food security
Given the expected seasonal Forecast, the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security (DINAS)produce water requirement satisfaction index map (above-right).
National Downscaled Water Satisfaction map
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Interpretation of seasonal outlook for Water Authorities
Given the expected seasonal Forecast, the water authorities (DNGRH) produce flood riskmap (above-right), which highlights the area in risk of floods.
National Downscaled Flood risk map
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The Seasonal forecast is updated in a monthly base for theperiods NDJ, DJF, JFM and FMA and it is disseminatedthrough the Internet, email and media to differentstakeholders.
Challenges:
To have forecast for 1 month;
To include forecast of cyclones;
To include forecast of temperatures; and
To include health sector outlooks;
Updates and Challenges
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