Progress of HM & POP modelling from global to country scale Ilya Ilyin, Oleg Travnikov, Victor Shatalov, Alexey Gusev Meteorological Synthesizing Centre

Progress of HM & POP modelling from global to country scale

Ilya Ilyin, Oleg Travnikov, Victor Shatalov, Alexey Gusev

Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

16th TFMM Meeting, 5 – 8 May, 2015

Outline

Overview of the GLEMOS (Global EMEP Multi-media Modelling System) model

Multi-model study of Hg processes and pollution levels

Research activities related to global POP transport

Country-scale modelling: HM case study for Belarus


Anthropogenicemissions

Atmosphere

Land

Ocean

Human & environmentexposure (CCE)

Met

eoro

logy

,

ocea

n da

ta

Geophysics

Atm

osp

her

icd

epo

siti

on

Co

ncen

tration

in m

edia

Model development

Global EMEP Multi-media Modelling System (GLEMOS)

Main features:

• Multi-pollutant (heavy metals, POPs, aerosol, …)

• Multi-media formulation

• Multi-scale consistent approach (from global to local)

• Based on parameterisations of previous MSC-E models

GLEMOS – new generation EMEP model for HMs and POPs aimed at replacement of previously used MSCE-HM and MSCE-POP models

GLEMOS general scheme


Multi-model study of mercury

Hg processes in the atmosphere

GLEMOS model development

EU GMOS Mercury Modelling Task Force

Model ensemble:

GLEMOS EMEP/MSC-E

ICHMERIT CNR-IIA (Italy)

GRAHM Environment Canada

GEOS-Chem MIT (USA)

CMAQ-Hg-Hem Lamar University (USA)

WRF-Chem CNR-IIA (Italy)

CMAQ-Hg HZG (Germany)

Objectives:

• Multi-model evaluation of Hg atmospheric processes

• Assessment of Hg intercontinental transport and future scenarios


Evaluation of Hg atmospheric processes

RV Urania

Ground-based sites

Marine cruises

Aircraft measurements

0

2

4

6

88 90 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 108 110

DOY

No

rma

lize

d G

OM

co

nc. Observations

Run 3

Run 5

Run 9

Hg0 + O3

Hg0 + OHHg0 + Br

Observations

Effect of different Hg oxidation processes on Hg(II)gas concentration at Waldhof (DE2)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

-130 -110 -90 -70 -50 -30 -10 10

Longitude

TG

M,

ng

/m3

Frankfurt - Vancouver (23 Jul 2009)

Stratosphere

Troposphere

Effect of Hg0 depletion in the stratosphere during CARIBIC flights




Industrial sources

Hg deposition from different emission sectors (2013)(UNEP/AMAP expert estimates)

Stationary combustion


Intentional use and product waste

Speciation of global Hg emissions

0 300 600 900

Intentional use & product waste

Industrial sources

Stationary combustion

Hg emissions, t/y

Hg0

HgIIgas

HgIIpart



Assessment of future emission scenarios (2035)2035

Current policy

New policy

Maximum feasible reduction

Simulated Hg deposition in 2010 and 2035

2010

Emission data source: GMOS/AMAP estimates




Investigation of global POP transport using GLEMOS

Research activities:

Investigation POP long-range transport and role of secondary sources

Assessment of intercontinental transport and source-receptor relationships (TF HTAP)

Multi-model study of global POP pollution

Verification of modelling results against UNEP SC GMP measurement data

Models:

GLEMOS (EMEP/MSC-E)

BETR-Research (ETH, Switzerland and SU, Sweden)

Substances:

PCBs, PCDD/Fs, HCB, …



Annual mean concentrations of PCB-153 for 2012 (one-year model run)

Investigation POP long-range transport and role of air-surface exchange

Air concentrations due to single-hop and multi-hop transport from non-

EMEP emissions sources (one-year model run)

Long-range transport of POPs

Single-hop

Continent B

Multi-hop

Continent A

0E+00

2E-03

4E-03

6E-03

8E-03

Single-hop Multi-hop

Air

co

nc

en

tra

tio

ns

, pg

/m3


EMEP region


Source-Receptor modeling experiments using new HTAP division sources/receptor (HTAP2)

Modeled annual mean PCB-153 air concentrations for 2012

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

PC

B-1

53 c

once

ntra

tion,

pg/

m3

Anthropogenic

Secondary sources

Intercontinental POP transport: Influence of secondary sources

EMEP

Source/receptor regions



0.1

1

10

100

0.1 1 10 100

Observed, fg TEQ/m3

M

od

elle

d,

fg T

EQ

/m3 North America

0.1

1

10

100

0.1 1 10 100

Observed, fg TEQ/m3

M

od

elle

d,

fg T

EQ

/m3 Eastern Asia

Modelled vs. observed PCDD/F air concentrations

Comparison of modelled PCDD/F air concentrations against UNEP GMP measurements in South America in 2012 (Schuster et al., EST, 2015)

Modelling with experimental emission scenario based on UNEP SC dioxins inventory

Investigation of global transport and fate of PCDD/Fs


0.1

1

10

100

0.1 1 10 100

Observed, fg TEQ/m 3

M

od

elle

d,

fg T

EQ

/m3 Europe

0.1

1

10

100

0.1 1 10 100

Observed, fg TEQ/m3

Mo

de

lled

, fg

TE

Q/m

3

South America

Outcome of POP research activities will be presented to UNEP SC

(SC conference, Geneva, May 2015)

Measurements: Global Monitoring Plan of SC


From global to regional scale

Nested simulations on the new EMEP grid

Hg total deposition over the globe (1°×1°)

Hg deposition over the new EMEP grid (0.2°×0.2°)

National scale Case Studies

Belarus



Country-scale pollution assessment

Case studies of HM pollution in selected EMEP countries

Approach:

Evaluation of pollution levels in a country with fine spatial resolution involving variety of national data

Requirements:

• Detailed emissions data (fine resolution, source categories, LPS)

• Additional measurements from national monitoring networks

• Participation of national experts in joint analysis of the results

Countries involved:

Country Czech Rep Croatia Netherlands Belarus Poland

Status complete complete complete in progress planned

Croatia

Netherlands

Czech Republic

EMEP HM case study


Preparation of input dataemissionsmeasurementsmeteorology concentrations in soilsboundary concentrations

…..

Major steps of HM case study for Belarus (Pb, 2012) 50x50 km2

- EMEP countries: CEIP- Belarus: national experts

Data sources:

EMEP HM case study

10x10 km2


EMEP HM case study

Preparation of input dataemissionsmeasurementsmeteorology concentrations in soils boundary concentrations…..

Major steps of HM case study for Belarus (Pb, 2012)

BY urban stations (national experts)Berezinskiy reserve (national experts)EMEP station (CCC)PL stations (AirBase)



Modelling over for selected domain with fine (10x10 km) resolution

Analysis of the results (together with national experts)

EMEP HM case study





Modelling over for selected domain with fine (10x10 km) resolution

Analysis of the results (together with national experts)

EMEP HM case study




Modelling of pollution levels in the EMEP domainPurpose: to generate boundary concentrations for country-scale modelling domain

ng/m3

- obs. sites

50x50 km2 10x10 km2

Pb in air, 2012

The model reasonably well reproduces Pb pollution in the EMEP region, keeping in mind existing uncertainties (EMEP/MSC-E status report 2014)

~ 40 stations

EMEP domain

Agreed domain

EMEP HM case study

Boundary conditions

0.1 1 10 50

0.1

1

10

50Pb air conc.

Mod

el, n

g/m

3

Observed, ng/m3

Bias = 7.9 %Rcorr = 0.9NRMSE = 0.57F2 = 69%F3 = 89%

Pb in air


PL0538Brz

PL5PL0531

PL0148

PL0507

PL0214

Country-scale modelling (Pb, 2012)

Total deposition Air concentration

ng/m3kg/m3/y

10x10 km2 10x10 km2

EMEP stationPL5, Poland

Background urban stations, Poland (AirBase)

EMEP HM case study

Background station Belarus (non-EMEP)


PL0538

Brz

PL5PL0531

PL0148

PL0507

PL0214

Modelled concentrations in air in 2012 with 10x10 km2 resolution

Modelled vs. observed air concentrations at station Berezinskiy reserve (non-EMEP station)

ng/m3

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 101 111 121 131 141 151 161 171 181 191 201 211 221 231 241 251 261 271 281 291 301 311 321 331 341 351 361

Day of year

Con

cent

ratio

n in

air,

ng/

m3 Observed

Modelled (10x10)Obs. mean: 2.3 ng/m3

Mod. mean: 0.8 ng/m3

Uncertainly of measurements can be estimated through participation of BY in intercalibration tests (is to be discussed with CCC)

EMEP HM case study


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 101 111 121 131 141 151 161 171 181 191 201 211 221 231 241 251 261 271 281 291 301 311 321 331 341 351 361

Day of year

Con

cent

ratio

n in

air,

ng/

m3 Observed

Modelled (10x10)

04 - 08 Mar. 2012

Future work: application of inverse modelling approach and develop emission scenarios

Analysis of back trajectories (Berezinskiy reserve)

27 – 29 Apr. 2012

EMEP HM case study


Modelled vs. observed air concentrations at Polish stations

PL0148A

0

5

10

15

20

25

Jan

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Jun

Jul

Au

g

Se

p

Oct

No

v

De

c

Co

nc

en

tra

tio

ns

in a

ir, n

g/m

3

Observed

Modelled

PL0538A

0

5

10

15

20

25

Jan

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Jun

Jul

Au

g

Se

p

Oct

No

v

De

c

Co

nc

en

tra

tio

ns

in a

ir, n

g/m

3

Observed

Modelled

PL0531A

0

5

10

15

20

25

Jan

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Jun

Jul

Au

g

Se

p

Oct

No

v

De

c

Co

nc

en

tra

tio

ns

in a

ir, n

g/m

3

Observed

Modelled

PL0214A

0

5

10

15

20

25

Jan

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Jun

Jul

Au

g

Se

p

Oct

No

v

De

c

Co

nc

en

tra

tio

ns

in a

ir, n

g/m

3

Observed

Modelled

PL0507A

0

5

10

15

20

25

Jan

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Jun

Jul

Au

g

Se

p

Oct

No

v

De

c

Co

nc

en

tra

tio

ns

in a

ir, n

g/m

3 Observed

Modelled

PL5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Jan

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Jun

Jul

Au

g

Se

p

Oct

No

v

De

c

Co

nc

en

tra

tio

ns

in a

ir, n

g/m

3 Observed

Modelled

EMEP station

National experts from PL need to be involved into analysis

Reasonable agreement in warm period; underestimation in cold period No seasonal variability is officially reported in emission data

EMEP HM case study


-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Poland

Czech

Rep

.

Germ

any

Spain

Belaru

s

Pb

air

co

nc

en

tra

tio

ns

, ng

/m3

Observed Pb air concentrations at urban stations

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Poland

Czech

Rep

.

Germ

any

Spain

Belaru

s

Me

an

em

iss

ion

flu

x, k

g/k

m2 /y Pb

emission flux

Observed conc.

Observed air conc. in BY and other countries are comparable

Discussion on emission and measurement issues with national experts (BY, RU…) and with EMEP centres (CEIP, CCC) is needed

EMEP HM case study

0

100

200

300

400

500

Poland

Czech

Rep

.

Germ

any

Spain

Belaru

s

Me

an

em

iss

ion

flu

x, k

g/k

m2 /y PM2.5

emission flux


Further steps on Case Study activity with Belarus

2. Application of inverse modelling approach. Construct emission scenarios.

3. Cooperation with national experts from other neighboring countries (PL, RU, UA…) and EMEP centres (CCC, CEIP) is needed. Possible extension of modeling domain to include neighboring countries.

4. Pay attention to other pollutants. Compare results for Pb with traditional pollutants (S, N, PM), involving MSC-W.

1. Case study for Belarus can be used to test approach of pollution level assessment in other countries of the EECCA region.

5. Prepare detailed country-specific information for Belarus with fine spatial resolution:

Maps of pollution levels Contributions of foreign and secondary sources Pollution levels in individual regions Contribution of emission source categories Background levels for cities

EMEP HM case study

Documents

Progress of HM & POP modelling from global to country scale Ilya Ilyin, Oleg Travnikov, Victor Shatalov, Alexey Gusev Meteorological Synthesizing Centre