Soil ecosystem services and farmers economy:

preliminary results of the SOIL SERVICE research project

Katarina Hedlund Lund university Sweden

Land use projections

•  Mitigate climate change •  Higher demand of food,

timber, clean water –  Production of goods

is increasing –  Natural habitats are

declining –  Increased intensity of

land management

Agriculture and soil threats

Declinein: Leadto:soilcarbon soilerosionbiologicalac2vity soilcompac2onsoilbiodiversity reducedresistance

topestsnutrientreten2on eutrofica2on

Intensification of agriculture

Soil is a natural capital

Soil Ecosystem Services

Nutrient retention Carbon storage Water retention Resistance to pests Regulation of above ground diversity

Goods

Food Feed Biofuel Clean water Easthetic values Cultural values

Soil biodiversity

Actions and inter-actions among soil organisms

feeding digging burrows mycorrhiza

Soil biodiversity

How can we use ecosystem services for promoting a sustainable use of soils in agriculture?

SOIL SERVICE research project

FP7 research project (2008-2012) http://www.kem.ekol.lu.se/soilservice/index.html

SOIL SERVICE project aims

•  Link soil biodiversity and ecosystem services in agricultural production

•  Value soil ecosystem services as a part of farmers economy

•  Predict future land use changes, based on farmers economy and sustainable use of soils

SOILSERVICE,decisionmaking&science

Ecosystems&biodiversity

Ecosystemservices

Decisions

Ins2tu2ons(farmers,EC)

Values

agricultural land use

Biodiversity tool box

Economy tool box

Information sustainable soil use

incentives

(Decision loop after Daily et al 2009)

Biodiversity tool box

Soil biodiversity

Ecosystem services

Quantify ES:

nutrient retention carbon retention resistance to pests stability of services

Agricultural land use:

crop rotation biofuel crops pastures

Link diversity to functions:

biodiversity food webs

SOIL SERVICE study regions

Agricultural regions for economy and soil biodiversity studies

SOIL SERVICE Field studies

Gradient of intensive crop rotation to pastures in each region

Sweden Greece

Results: diversity & food web structure

Predators Microbial feeders Microorganism

Pastures

Intensiv crop rotation

Predators Microbial feeders Microorganism

Results: soil carbon retention

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

CZ GR SE UK

C %

crop

rotation

pasture

Results: nutrient and water retention

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

CZ GR SE UK

ng N

LFA

/g s

oil

Biomass AM fungi

Crop Rotation Pasture

AM fungi: Plant nutrient uptake (P, N)

Soil aggregate formation

Plant water uptake

Conclusions:

•  Reduced species diversity •  Lower food chain length •  Microbial biomass: 50% reduction •  Soil carbon: 10 - 100% reduction •  Phosphorous uptake: from 150 to 15 kg/ha •  Reduced soil mixing: from 100 to 5 tons/ha •  Reduction of soil aggregates: more than 50%

Pastures to crop rotation:

Ecosystemservices Values

Link production of services with economy develop production functions of services

Value ecosystem services model farmers economy test policies in economy models develop models for predicting future land use

Economy tool box

Ecosystem services & farmers economy

•  Value of ecosystem services is based on: –  Farmers profit –  Benefits of society

•  Cannot value diversity on its own •  Value contribute to yield or reduction of costs

Income= yield*price – costs + ecosystem services

Economy tool box - production functions

Model effects of agricultural practices •  On yield

–  N response –  Impact of changing soil C stock on yield

•  Soil ecosystem services –  Soil C –  Soil N –  Biotic resistance

Regional study: soil carbon decline

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

1950 1970 1990 2010

kgwhe

at/ha

WinterwheatyieldFarmC

50kgN/ha 150kgN/ha

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

1950 1970 1990 2010

Soil

Car

bon

%

Soil carbon decline rate

Farm A Farm B Farm C

Farm A

Economy tool box - production functions

Yield response to N input with different levels of soil Carbon

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

0 50 100 150 200

Yie

ld in

crea

se (k

g/ha

)

Nitrogen fertilizer (kg/ha)

C increase 2.5% 1.5% 0.5%

Agent-based model of farmers economy

Actions

Interactions

Farms

Factor endowment

Economy tool box: farmers profits

AgriPoliS - Agricultural Policy Simulator (Happe 2004, Brady et al 2007)

Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO), Halle, Germany

Key variables in AgriPoliS

Income Costs •  Agricultural products

–  Crop yields (t) –  Livestock (numbers) –  Milk (kg) –  Stable manure (N & P kg)

•  Soilservices –  Soil C (kg) –  N mineralization (kg) –  Biotic resistance (index)

•  Fertilizer –  N (kg) –  P (kg)

•  Energy (diesel equivalents) •  Pesticides (index) •  Labour (regional wage) •  Land (ha)

Technological development   Higher yields per unit

input

Output from AgriPoliS

•  Future prediction –  1-25 years

•  Farm structure –  Average farm size –  Number of farms

•  Land use –  Composition of crops –  Distribution of field

size

•  Econ. Performance –  Farm income –  Farm profit –  Investment activity –  Returns to labour

•  Livestock –  Numbers of livestock –  Animal density

Scenarios for predicting the future

Scenario World Market Regional Enterprise

Global Sustainability

Local Stewardship

Yields High Medium Medium Low Crop Price Low Low Low Medium Energy price Low Medium Medium High

Global pop Low High Low Medium

Adopted from the ACCELERATES project (Abildtrup, et al. 2006

Regional study: Soil carbon decline

0 0.5

1 1.5

2 2.5

3 3.5

4 4.5

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Soil

Car

bon

%

Year

Soil carbon decline rate in Sweden

Farm A Farm B Farm C

1% decline per year

Profits and C change in 2035

NochangeinC 2010 WM RE GS LS

Yield(kg/ha) 7593 13130 10427 10395 7965

Totalrevenues(€/ha) 990 1277 1202 1400 1207

Farmersprofit(€/ha) 34 291 134 64 ‐142

Cchange‐1%/yr WM RE GS LS

Yield(kg/ha) 12325 9788 9758 7477

Totalrevenues(€/ha) 1199 1128 1315 1133

Farmersprofit(€/ha) 213 60 ‐22 ‐216

Cchange+1%/yr WM RE GS LS

Yield(kg/ha) 14153 11240 11204 8586

Totalrevenues(€/ha) 1377 1295 1510 1301

Farmersprofit(€/ha) 391 227 173 ‐48

AgriPoliS projections 25 years:

140 145 150 155 160 165 170 175 180 185

ha

Average farm size

0 20 40 60 80

100 120 140

x100

0 (€

) Average farm profit

Model predicts future - profits of farmers - size of farms of an agricultural region

SOILSERVICEandfurtherwork

Ecosystems&biodiversity

Ecosystemservices

Decisions

Ins2tu2ons(farmers,EC)

Values

agricultural land use

Biodiversity tool box

Economic tool box

Information sustainable soil use

incentives

SOIL SERVICE expected results

•  Predict farmers economy with current and future land use

•  Determine the value of ecosystem services as a part of agricultural production

•  Value soil carbon as a natural capital for farmers economy

•  Test policy options on future decisions of farmers and societies

SOIL SERVICE partners

SOIL SERVICE partners

Lund University, Sweden, Prof Katarina Hedlund Agri Food Economics Centre, Sweden, Dr. Mark Brady, University of Copenhagen, Denmark Prof. Søren Christensen, University of Helsinki, Finland Prof. Heikki Setälä, Netherlands Institute of Ecology, NL, Prof. Wim H. Van der Putten, Wageningen University, NL, Prof. Peter C. de Ruiter, Justus-Liebig-University of Giessen, Germany, Prof. Volkmar Wolters, Biology Centre of the Academy of Sciences, Czech Republic Dr. Jan Frouz, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece, Dr. Stefanos Sgardelis Lancaster University, United Kingdom, Prof. Richard D. Bardgett University of Reading, United Kingdom, Dr. Simon Mortimer