Portfolio Results Industry Day

Air Armament CenterAir Armament Center

Dr. L. Bruce SimpsonDirector308th Armament Systems [email protected]

War-Winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost

Portfolio ResultsPortfolio ResultsIndustry Day Industry Day

DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

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Strategy for Seamless Transition

– Co-located key Personnel for Maximum Synergy

– Utilized “Best Practices” from the 3 Organizations

– Conducted Leadership Off-sites to Ensure Collaboration

– Initiated Feedback Loop for Group Workflow Managers

– Streamlined Administrative Processes

Air-to-GroundAir-to-Ground Air-to-Air

Air-to-AirCombat Support

Combat Support

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Acquisition Wing

308th ARSWDr. Bruce Simpson, CL

308th ARSWMr. John Batog, DV (Navy)

308th ARSWCol Michelle Miller Peck, DV

Technical DirectorMr. Christopher Clay

Chief Financial OfficerMs. Della McPhail

Chief of ContractingMr. Gary Williams

Chief of LogisticsMs. Margaret Villagran

675th ARSSJASSM Intrnat’l

690th ARSSOperation Spt

680th ARSSJDAM Intrnat’l

694th ARSSAMRAAM Intrna’l

671st ARSSWeaponeering

408th ARSGArmament Support

Mr. May, CL

678th ARSSJDAM

688th ARSSAgile Combat Spt

679th ARSSFuze

708th ARSGDirect Attack

Ms. Rutledge, CL

676th ARSSJASSM

683rd ARSSSFW

677th ARSSJASSM-ER

684th ARSS WCMD

692nd ARSS MALD

308th ARSGLong Range Systems

Col Griggs, CC

693rd ARSSLethal SEAD

696th ARSS AIM-120D

695th ARSS AIM-120C

Det 1Short Range Msl

328th ARSG Air DominanceCol Rumph, CC

728th ARSGTest and Training

Col Socha, CC

689th ARSS Range Inst Sys

672nd ARSS CRIIS

691st ARSS Aerial Targ Sys

808th ARSGAdvanced Programs

Mr. Rutledge, CL

685th ARSS Sys Interf & Integ

687th ARSS Adv Programs

686th ARSS Spc Prog/Proj

918th ARSG Miniature Munitions

Col Justice, CC

681st ARSS SDB Inc 1

682nd ARSSSDB Inc 2

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308 ARSW Highlights

308 ARSGLong Range Attack

328 ARSGAir Dominance

408 ARSGArmament Support

708 ARSGDirect Attack

728 ARSGTest & Training

808 ARSGAdvanced Programs

918 ARSGMiniature Munitions

FLM– Transferred Technology from AFRL Mar 07

– Testing Successful

– Residuals in Warfighter Hands Early

ADS– Gov’t Acceptance Testing Ongoing

at Kirtland

– Ops Eval planned for April 08

– Transitioning to 808 ARSG May 08

P5 CTS– Pods Fielded at 10 of 25

Planned AF/Navy Bases

– Sortie Success Rate: 97.7%

– 40,956 Sorties Flown

LJDAM –CENTAF Urgent Operational Need

–Completing Ops Utility Evaluation

–On Track for April 08 fielding

Weaponeering– Developed & Published New

Collateral Damage Estimation Tables Used in OIF / OEF

– Release of JWS 2.0, 1st Qtr FY09

AMRAAM–AIM 120C7: Completed OT &

Fielding Proceeding Well

–AIM 120D: Developmental Testing Shots Underway

MALD–Completed

Developmental Testing

–Milestone C in 3rd Qtr FY08

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GWOT Successes

– 2007: Delivered 34,377 Fuzes – 3,120 Combat Drops– Operational Reliability 98% (95% requirement)

Government / Industry Team Delivering Capability to the Warfighter

Over 28,000 Total Combat Drops OEF/OIF(JDAM, DSU-33, JPF, SDB, SFW, WCMD)

– 2007: Delivered 124,546 Units – 3,455 Combat Drops– Proven Ability to End Combat Engagements!

– 2007: Delivered 131,504 Units - 1180 Combat Drops

– 49 Total Combat Drops– ~40,000 Captive Flight Hours on F-15E

• JDAM

• JPF

• DSU-33

• SDB

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GWOT Lessons Learned

Solving Present Day Challenges While Developing Capabilities to Fight and Win the Next Conflict

• Changing Face of War Causes Changes in How We Fly/Fight

– Increased Precision– Ability to Attack Moving Targets

– LJDAM: On Track for Fielding Apr 08

– Minimize Collateral Damage – FLM: Tested and Delivered 50 Assets to Warfighter 3 Months Early

– Dramatic Increase in Captive Carry Hours for Air-to-Ground Munitions

– SDB approx. 40,000 hours

• GWOT Has Presented Us With Challenges– Our Tactics Must Evolve as Our Enemy Adapts

– ADS: Non-lethal DE Weapon; Perimeter Protection-- Deters Advancing Adversary

– Advancements in Technology Required to Counter Increasingly Mobile Enemies Located in Dense Populations

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AAC Portfolio MARs Performance

Ove

rall

Cos

t

Sch

edul

eP

erfo

rman

ceFu

ndin

g

Jan 07 62% GREEN28% YELLOW10% RED O

vera

ll

Cos

t

Sch

edul

e

Per

form

ance

Fund

ing

PoP

S

Jan 0875% GREEN12.5% YELLOW12.5% RED

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– Disciplined Integrated Assessment Approach

– Sound Systems Engineering

– Realistic Planning

– Robust Risk Reduction

– Life Cycle Considerations Up Front

– Design for the “ilities”

– Relevant Capability

On Schedule, On Cost

– Customer/Requirement Focus

Acquisition Challenges

AcquisitionAcquisition

StrategyStrategy

High

Confidence

Source

Selection

High

Confidence

Source

Selection

Systems

Engineering

AssessmentSystems

Engineering

Assessment

Manufacturing

Readiness

Assessment

Manufacturing

Readiness

Assessment

Technology Readiness

Level / Technology

Readiness

Assessment

Technology Readiness

Level / Technology

Readiness

Assessment

Suffic

iency

Rev

iew

Suffic

iency

Rev

iew

Probability of Program

SuccessProbability of Program

Success

Cost Sufficiency ReviewCost Sufficiency Review

Integrated Assessment Process Leads to Higher Confidence Programs

Integrated Assessment Process Leads to Higher Confidence Programs

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Focus Areas

• Identify and Manage Risk

• Probability of Success

• Sufficiency Reviews

• Program Reviews

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• Standard processes integral part of doing business

• Activity before Risk ID is standard work with defined solutions

• Expanding the suite of tools to ID and Analyze risk

PoPS

PMRs

Identify and Manage Risk

WBS

Risk Cube

SufficiencyReviews

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Probability of Program Success

Intent

• Agreed-to risk levels documented and recorded

• Don’t shoot messenger when program encounters problems

• Predictive metrics can identify watch areas to a PM before problem erupts

• Better prediction of future issues

• Ability to look at scoring trends over time

2007 Probability of Program Success

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Months

Program Take Aways

• Beginning to institutionalize

• Windshield chart affects decisions on resources

• Trend of red to green as mitigation plans implemented

• Synergy generated by effective assessments

• Audits since June raising confidence

• Focused program priorities

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Sufficiency Reviews

Investment

• 22 reviews in 2007

• Program reviewed by about 40 senior and experienced experts

• Approx 5000 man hours in reviews

Issues Identified

• Cost risk in planning for averages

• Need specific exit criteria

• Test schedule and resources

• Sustainment planning

• Production phasing

• Leadership awareness of resource requirements

Benefits

• Realistic planning early

• Instills discipline

• Encourages communication between functionals

• Forums for exchanging best practices

• Gives team a clear vector

• More efficient ASP—Establishes baseline

“Plans are nothing; planning is everything” Dwight D. Eisenhower

O N D J F M A M J J A SO N D J F M A M J J A S

AIR-TO-AIR PROGRAMS

AIR-TO-GROUND PROGRAMSNotes

COMBAT SUPPORT PROGRAMS

NEW CONCEPT PROGRAMS

AAC Totals 3 1 4 3 2 3 1 1 1 0 1 2 22

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Integrating Program and Cost Risk

• Integrate “risk cube” and PoPS into cost estimate

• Dependencies between WBS elements

• Specific risks determine funding for confidence• Monte Carlo simulation• Better risk ID and modeling

$

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PMR “Deep Dives”

• Conducted by Wing Director/SPDs—1 per Wk• Each Program Reviewed Every 12 Weeks• Program Manager’s Format • Areas Reviewed: Schedule, Financials, Risks,

PoPS Action Plans• Raises leadership awareness—addresses

PMs needs• Foundation for Advising PEO

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Industry’s RoleIndustry’s Role

• Robust Systems Engineering

• Vendor and Supplier Management

• Reliable, Quality Products

• Cost and Schedule Realism

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Summary

• Trends Moving in the Right Direction

• Implementing Processes for Continuous Improvement

Our GoalWith Higher Confidence Provide

War-Winning Capabilities. . .On Time. . .On Cost

Documents

Portfolio Results Industry Day