Population decline in Poland – country, regions and cities. Some insights to policy responses

Dr Anna Kurowska

Warsaw University

Seminar on population shrinking, March 23, 2011, Brussels

Mind map of the presentation:

Characteristics of population shrinkage at the central, regional and local level

Main direct causes of population shrinkage at each level

Deaper causes of population shrinkage at the local level (case study)

RECENT POLICY RESPONSES TO THE POPULATION SHRINKAGE AT THE CENTRAL AND REGIONAL LEVEL

Graph 1. Population in Poland 1946-2009

20000

22000

24000

26000

28000

30000

32000

34000

36000

38000

40000

1946

1948

1950

1952

1954

1956

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1960

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1968

1970

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1978

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1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

in t

ho

usa

nd

s

growth stabilisation slight decline

-2,5

-2,0

-1,5

-1,0

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1948

1950

1952

1954

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1958

1960

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1970

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2008

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usa

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-5

0

5

10

15

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25

1946

1948

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pe

r 1

00

0 p

op

ula

tio

n

Graph 2. Natural increase (per 1000 population) in Poland 1946-2009

Fertility rate ab 1,38

Graph 3. Net international migration (per 1000 population) in Poland 1948-2009

post-accession (EU) emigration

Graph 4. Population prognosis for Poland 2010-2035

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

in t

ho

usa

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s

Total Population Population in the cities Population in the rural areas

Map 1. Polish regions in Europe – population progosis

Map 2. Subregions in Poland – population density in 2008 and population change 2000-2008

Population density (inh. per 1km)

Population change 2000-2008

increase

decline

Source: Krajowa Strategia Rozwoju Regionalnego 2010-2020

Map 3. Regions in Poland – population and prognosis on population change 2008-2030

Population in thousands

Population prognosis 2008-2030 (%)

increasedecline Source: Krajowa Strategia Rozwoju Regionalnego 2010-2020

> -5%

> -10%

Map 4. Regions of the highest population decline between 2010-2035 (prognosis)

Map 5. Natural increase in 2009 by regions in Poland

Source: Polish Demographic Yearbook 2010

Map 6. Intensity of international migrations (immigrations) in the pre- and post-accession period in Polish regions.

Pre-accesion period

Post-accesion period

Number of international migrants per 1000 inhabitants

Source: Polska 2030

Map 7. Contribution of the regions to the Polish GDP (2007)

In percent

In absolute value

Within voivodship centres

Outside voivodship centres

Source: Krajowa Strategia Rozwoju Regionalnego 2010-2020

Map 8. Average GDP per capita in subregions as a percent of country average in the years 2004-2007

Source: Krajowa Strategia Rozwoju Regionalnego 2010-2020

Average subregional GDP per capita as a % of Polish average in 2004-2007

Map 9. Subregional GDP growth compared to the country average 2004-2007

The difference between the average growth in Poland and GDP dynamics in the regions in 2004-2007

Higher than the average

Lover than average

Shrinking cities in Poland - tendencies:

Number of inhabitants (in thousands) of medium size cities

Number of inhabitants (in thousands) in large cities

http://www.gazetaprawna.pl

Between 1990-2004 (transformation period):

From 38 cities with over 100 thous. inhabitants - 24 shrinked

After accession to EU (2004-2009):

From 38 cities with over 100 thous. inhabitants - 35 shrinked

Map 10. Cities with the highest intensity of socio-economic problems

Source: Polska 2030

Problem intensity

Low

Very high

0

50

100

150

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400

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2009

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Katowice Sosnowiec Bytom

Systemic transformation:

Deindustrialization

+ Suburbanization

Graph 5. Population change in Katowice, Bytom and Sosnowiec 1950-2009

Recent policy responses at the central level:Responses to low natural increase:

Family policy:

-longer than UE average: maternity (2009) and parental leaves

-child tax credits (+joint family taxation) (2007)

-family benefits: means-tested and universal – „becikowe” (2005) (low efficiency)

-public kindergartens

-new (2011) Act on childcare for children up to 3 years

Responses to negative net international migration:

- Program „Powrót” 2007 (Homecoming):

*e-services for Polish emigrants:

www.powroty.gov.pl

*tax-credits and lowering social security contributions for returning Polish emigrants-entrepreneurs

*social campaigns

*language lessons for children of Polish emigrants

-Immigration policy

Responses internal migration and depopulation of some regions and cities:

-New National Strategy for Regional Development (2010-2020):

*polarization-diffusion model (PDM)

*restoring functionality to strategic cities within the frames of (PDM): Szczecin, Łódź, Upper Silesian Conurbation: e.g. Katowice, Sosnowiec, Bytom

* Improving accessibility to regional growth centers

Exaples of support to the regional and local authorities within the frames of NSRD 2010-2020:

Investments in infrastructure (highways, express roads, high-speed railways, air connections) and institutional relations between provincial centers

Modernization of public services in order to increase consistency, access and efficiency

Investments in education, science and technology in those provincial cities that are loosig their functionality

Promoting enterpreneurship in the East Poland an other areas loosing their current socio-economic functionality

Supporting socio-economic specialization of different regions and local areas based on their comparative advantages (supporting the development of clusters)

NSRD 2010-2020 – examples of targets (indicators):

Target/indicators Value in the base year Expected value in 2020

Number of passenger transport per 1 inhabitant in the urban areas(Poland = 100)

174,5 226,8

The connection of provincial cities with expressways and highways

6/18 18/18

Population living in 60 minutes isochrone from provincial city

57,9% 68%

Number of businesses registered in the national REGON per 1000 inhabitants aged (15-64 years) in the cities and other areas losing their current socio-economic functionality

143,9 193

Concentration of GDP in the functional areas of provincial cities:

Vivodship=100 Poland=100

50,8 51,6

Net migration to the communal permanent residence per 1000 population in cities and other areas losing the current functionality

-0,4 0

Policy responses at the regional and local level – case study of (Upper) Silesian Voivodship :

Zoning + Development Strategy of Silesia Voivodship (2004 and 2010):

1. Not much attention paid strictly to the problem of shrinking population

2. In the context of shrinking population of the central and North-West parts of Voivodship, the planned directions are:

• strengthening the functions of the nodal centers of the settlement network (II)

• protection of environmental resources, strengtheningsystem of protected areas and multifunctional development of open areas (III)

• development of supra-local infrastructure systems (IV)

• stimulate innovation in the regional systemof space management (V)

• interregional cooperation in the space planning (VI)

Examples of actions in the Upper Silesian Conurbation:

Creating 2 high technology centers

Creating technology parks on post-industrial areas i.a. in Sosnowiec

Raising the rank of cultural heritage objects (recognition as a historic monument – to enter the UNESCO World Heritage List), including historic churches, post-industrial buildings,timber  building

Investments in turistic areas i.a. near Katowice (Dolina Trzech Stawów) & Częstochowa (Jura Krakowsko-Częstochowska)

Investments in local and interregional transport

CONCLUSIONS:

Since the end of the XX century Polish population started to shrink. The prognosis show that this process will continue in the next 25 years.

The major cause of the population decline is close to 0 or negative natural increase. The second problem is the negative net international immigration rate.

Poland is characterized by significant regional differences in the natural increase and net immigration rate. The Central-South voivodships and the East Poland are the regions that are especially threatened by population decline.

One of the local areas that are shrinking quickly is Upper Silesian Conurbation – highly urbanized area that experienced intensive deindustrialization during the transformation period.

As the depopulation is regionally highly correlated with slower economic growth and social problems, the Polish policy at the central, regional and local level is concentrated on solving socio-economic problems and not directly on depopulation processes. The regional policy follows the ideal of diffusion-polarization model.

The important policy actions are: enforcing regional growth centers (provincial cities), investing in local and interregional transport, supporting entrepreneurship and investing in technology/science and education/cultural centers.