Patrick J. Kelly National Center for Higher Education Management Systems

Mounting Pressures Facing the U.S. Workforce and the Increasing Need for Adult Education and Literacy

Patrick J. KellyNational Center for Higher Education Management Systems

Percentage of Adults with at Least a High School Diploma by Age-Group 2004

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Korea

Norw

ay

Japan

Slovak R

epublic

Czech R

epublic

Sw

eden

Canada

Finland

Sw

itzerland

Austria

United S

tates

Denm

ark

Germ

any

New

Zealand

Hungary

France

Netherlands

Belgium

Ireland

Australia

Luxem

bourg

Greece

United K

ingdom

Iceland

Italy

Spain

Poland

Portugal

Turkey

Mexico

25 to 34 Year Olds

45 to 54 Year Olds

The United States ranks 11th among OECD countries in the percentage of young adults with a high school diploma – the only country in which the younger adults are less educated than the previous generation.

Source: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Economic Development, 2006 Education at a Glance

Percent of Adults with a High School Diploma by Age-Group – The U.S. and Leading OECD Countries (2004)

Source: Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development, Education at a Glance 2005

97.0

95.5

94.0

93.7

93.6

91.4

90.6

89.4

88.7

87.2

87.1

85.9

92.1 94

.0

90.9 92

.8

88.7

87.6

86.3

86.1

84.3 88

.0

57.2

86.2

82.0 84

.1 86.7

80.8 83

.4

75.9

83.2

77.5

89.7

33.8

77.6

65.0

64.0

82.2

70.6 72

.8

58.6

78.9

69.3

86.4

0

20

40

60

80

100

Korea Norway Japan SlovakRepublic

CzechRepublic

Sweden Canada Finland Switzerland Austria UnitedStates

25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Canada

Japan

Kore

a

Sw

eden

Belg

ium

Irela

nd

Norw

ay

Unite

d S

tate

s

Spain

Fra

nce

Fin

land

Austra

lia

Denm

ark

Unite

d K

ingdom

Neth

erla

nds

Icela

nd

Luxem

bourg

Sw

itzerla

nd

New

Zeala

nd

Gre

ece

Pola

nd

Germ

any

Austria

Mexico

Hungary

Portu

gal

Italy

Slo

vak R

epublic

Cze

ch R

epublic

Turke

y

25 to 34

45 to 54

Differences in College Attainment (Associate and Higher) Between Young and Older Adults – The U.S. and OECD Countries, 2004


Percent of Adults with an Associates Degree or Higher by Age-Group – The U.S. and Leading OECD Countries (2004)


53.351.6

49.1

42.340.7 40.4

39.2 39.0

47.045.1

33.535.7

32.3

28.9

34.1

39.441.4

32.7

16.4

32.9

25.2

21.5

29.4

40.7

34.5

19.2

9.7

27.3

20.0

15.7

23.2

36.2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Canada Japan Korea Sweden Belgium Ireland Norway United States

25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64

Changing Workforce Needs: The Projected Percentage Employment Growth in the U.S. from 2004 to 2014 by Level of Education Required

19.0%

30.8%

18.8%

16.6%

19.6%

25.1%

17.7%

9.6%

8.7%

8.5%

11.4%

0% 7% 14% 21% 28% 35%

Professional Degree

Doctorate Degree

Masters Degree

Postsecondary Degree Plus Work Experience

Bachelor's Degree

Associates Degrees

Postsecondary Vocational Award

Work Experience in Related Occupation (No Formal Award)

Long-Term On-the-Job Training (No Formal Award)

Moderate-Term On-the-Job Training (No Formal Award)

Short-Term On-the-Job Training (No Formal Award)

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Changing Workforce Needs: The Projected Number Employment Growth in the U.S. from 2004 to 2014 by Level of Education Required

(In Thousands)

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

8,526

1,057

960

2,473

5,891

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

Employment RequiringSome Level of

Postsecondary Education

Work Experience in RelatedOccupation (No Formal

Award)

Long-Term On-the-JobTraining (No Formal Award)

Moderate-Term On-the-JobTraining (No Formal Award)

Short-Term On-the-JobTraining (No Formal Award)

Participation in the Workforce by Level of Education, 2000 (Percent)

Source: Integrated Public Use Microdata Series 5% sample, www.ipums.org

56.8

73.0

79.382.7

87.6

43.2

27.0

20.717.3

12.4

84.6

15.4

0

20

40

60

80

100

Less than HS High School Some College Associate Bachelor's Graduate/Prof.

Participating in the Workforce Not Participating in the Workforce

Projected Change in U.S. Population by Age and Race/Ethnicity From 2000 to 2020 (In Millions)

Source: US Census Bureau, Population Projections based on the 2000 Decennial Census

Note: Projections based on the 2000 Census are not available for Native Americans

-1.83

-0.88

-6.59

7.12

12.40

1.110.42

2.03

3.69

2.29

6.50

1.87

5.49

7.32

2.97

1.200.33

1.41

2.79

1.57

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

0 to 17 18 to 24 25 to 44 45 to 64 65 and Older

White African-American Hispanic /Latino Asian /Pacific Islander

The majority of expected growth in our young population from 2000 to 2020 is among segments of our population that have the lowest levels of education – while whites are projected to decline.

Transition and Completion Measures from High School to College Completion for the U.S. – 2004

Source: National Center for Education Statistics; Common Core Data, Digest of Education Statistics, and IPEDS Graduation Rate Survey

69.3% 68.8%

31.1%

58.2%

47.8%

62.5%

24.3%

39.7%

54.5%

61.8%

30.3%

45.8%

57.4%

28.6%

36.5%

78.4%

32.7%

64.6%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Graduating from High

School Within Four Years

Attending College Directly

Out of High School

Three-Year Graduation Rate

at Two-Year Colleges

Six-Year Graduation Rate at

Four-Year Colleges

Not Available

White

African-American

Hispanic /Latino

Asian /Pacific Islander

Native American

Roughly half of Hispanics and African-Americans don’t complete high school within four years.

Number Changes in Educational Attainment from 2000 to 2020 as a Result of the Projected Changes in Race/Ethnicity (25 to 64 Year Olds)

7,378,402

4,834,077

3,656,845

1,096,163

2,368,743

1,382,160

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

Less than High School

High School

Some College

Associates

Bachelor’s

Graduate/Professional

Source: NCHEMS, As America Becomes More Diverse: The Impact of State Higher Education Inequality

Given current educational attainment disparities by race/ethnicity and projected changes in the population, it is likely that the segment of our population with less than a high school diploma will grow more than any other – unless successful intervention takes place.

Target Populations

• Adults with no high school diplomas (or equivalent)• High school only completers unprepared for the

workforce or to enter college (the best proxy we have – those whose family incomes are less than a living wage)

• English as a Second Language (ESL) – with less than a high school diploma (or equivalent) or just a high school diploma

• Incarcerated population

Percent of Adults 18 to 64 Year Old with Less than a High School Diploma (or Equivalent) 2005

Source: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey

19.8

%18

.9%

18.8

%17

.6%

17.1

%16

.9%

16.9

%16

.6%

16.2

%15

.9%

15.8

%15

.8%

15.5

%15

.5%

14.6

%14

.2%

14.1

%13

.8%

13.6

%13

.6%

13.3

%13

.3%

13.1

%13

.0%

12.7

%12

.5%

12.2

%12

.2%

11.7

%11

.4%

11.3

%11

.3%

11.0

%10

.8%

10.3

%10

.3%

10.2

%10

.1%

9.9%

9.6%

9.4%

9.4%

9.3%

8.9%

8.9%

8.8%

8.4%

8.3%

8.1%

8.0%

7.8%

6.9%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Texas

California

Mississippi

Nevada

Kentucky

Louisiana

Alabam

aN

ew M

exicoA

rizonaG

eorgiaA

rkansasS

outh Carolina

Tennessee

North C

arolinaW

est Virginia

Oklahom

aU

nited States

Florida

New

York

Dist of C

olIndianaD

elaware

Rhode Island

IdahoM

issouriIllinoisO

regonV

irginiaO

hioC

oloradoW

ashingtonN

ew Jersey

Maryland

Michigan

Utah

Kansas

Pennsylvania

Massachusetts

Connecticut

Alaska

Nebraska

South D

akotaW

isconsinN

ew H

ampshire

Iowa

Maine

Verm

ontW

yoming

Haw

aiiM

ontanaM

innesotaN

orth Dakota

Percent of Adults 18 to 24 Year Old with Less than a High School Diploma (or Equivalent) 2005


25.2

%24

.9%

24.1

%23

.5%

23.5

%23

.1%

23.1

%22

.4%

22.3

%22

.3%

22.0

%22

.0%

21.5

%20

.9%

20.8

%20

.6%

20.5

%20

.4%

19.7

%19

.6%

19.6

%19

.6%

19.5

%19

.2%

19.2

%19

.1%

18.8

%18

.7%

18.0

%17

.9%

17.9

%17

.6%

17.6

%17

.5%

17.3

%17

.1%

17.0

%16

.9%

16.2

%16

.2%

16.0

%16

.0%

15.9

%15

.8%

15.8

%15

.6%

15.5

%15

.4%

15.3

%14

.4%

11.9

%8.

3%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Nevada

Mississippi

Georgia

Delaw

areT

exasN

ew M

exicoA

laskaA

labama

Arizona

Louisiana

North C

arolinaS

outh Carolina

IndianaK

entuckyO

klahoma

Florida

Washington

California

Arkansas

United S

tatesIdahoC

oloradoT

ennesseeO

regonM

issouriN

ew Y

orkS

outh Dakota

Ohio

West V

irginiaW

yoming

IllinoisN

ew H

ampshire

Rhode Island

Virginia

Michigan

Maryland

Maine

Dist of C

olP

ennsylvaniaIow

aN

ebraskaM

innesotaM

assachusettsN

ew Jersey

Kansas

Wisconsin

Connecticut

Montana

Utah

Verm

ontN

orth Dakota

Haw

aii

Distribution (%) of Residents 18 to 64 with Less than a High School Diploma by Grade-Level Completed and State, 2005

Source: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey Note: Excludes 18 to 24 year olds enrolled in school

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

California

Texas

Arizona

IllinoisN

evadaM

assachusettsR

hode islandN

ew Y

orkN

ew Jersey

Haw

aiiN

ebraskaC

oloradoIdahoC

onnect icutU

nited StatesD

ist of Col

New

Mexico

Washington

Oregon

North C

arolinaK

entuckyFloridaV

irginiaK

ansasG

eorgiaM

innesotaA

rkansasSouth D

akotaIow

aM

arylandD

elaware

Maine

Tennessee

Louisiana

South Carolina

West V

irginiaO

klahoma

IndianaU

tahM

iss issippiV

ermont

Alabam

aM

issouriN

orth Dakota

PennsylvaniaW

isconsinM

ichiganM

ontanaA

laskaO

hioW

yoming

New

Ham

pshire

9th to 12th Grade (No Completion) 5th to 8th Grade Less than 5th Grade No School

Number of Residents Ages 18 to 64 Who Speak English Poorly or Not at All by State, 2005


U.S. = 8,339,734

2,57

9,65

61,

274,

890

661,

822

572,

991

405,

061

291,

011

266,

011

204,

657

160,

927

159,

443

137,

938

131,

889

117,

677

117,

279

108,

092

88,6

1886

,029

74,4

34

68,4

2862

,005

59,1

81

55,9

4150

,621

48,5

4047

,318

46,6

92

45,4

6943

,355

39,8

98

33,6

9232

,805

31,2

6329

,476

28,4

53

26,8

2326

,484

23,8

03

20,7

5817

,203

14,7

4714

,360

10,6

84

6,46

94,

344

4,32

6

3,42

52,

840

589

516

465

336

0

600,000

1,200,000

1,800,000

2,400,000

3,000,000

California

Texas

New

York

Florida

IllinoisA

rizonaN

ew Jersey

Georgia

North C

arolinaM

assachusettsW

ashingtonC

oloradoP

ennsylvaniaN

evadaV

irginiaM

arylandO

regonM

ichiganC

onnecticutN

ew M

exicoIndianaM

innesotaW

isconsinU

tahO

hioT

ennesseeS

outh Carolina

Oklahom

aK

ansasA

rkansasM

issouriR

hode islandN

ebraskaA

labama

IdahoH

awaii

Iowa

Louisiana

Kentucky

Delaw

areM

ississippiD

ist of Col

New

Ham

pshireA

laskaM

aineS

outh Dakota

Wyom

ingM

ontanaV

ermont

West V

irginiaN

orth Dakota

Number of U.S. Residents Ages 18 to 64 Who Speak English Poorly or Not at All by Level of Education Completed, 2005


3,997,270

1,883,319

2,459,145

696,499

269,852

530,690

204,856

0

1,500,000

3,000,000

4,500,000

Less than 9thGrade

9th to 12thGrade (NoDiploma)

High School SomeCollege

Associate Bachelor's Graduate orProfessional

U.S. = 8,339,734

Number of Residents Ages 18 to 64 with Just a High School Diploma or Less in Families with Incomes Below a Living Wage* by State, 2005


3,70

7,70

53,

038,

986

1,76

1,94

51,

723,

791

1,09

0,71

1

1,08

9,27

11,

034,

744

1,00

1,58

997

3,24

784

3,11

9

789,

126

629,

606

611,

202

611,

190

595,

907

588,

529

568,

872

555,

734

542,

814

514,

962

498,

705

432,

751

410,

267

395,

163

394,

303

382,

354

365,

538

338,

720

337,

262

289,

130

265,

229

255,

476

242,

116

228,

546

218,

909

189,

630

170,

458

151,

810

131,

886

121,

427

84,5

7176

,359

75,6

3870

,149

69,5

87

66,1

4258

,646

54,3

8747

,705

40,8

62

33,7

67

0

1,500,000

3,000,000

4,500,000

California

Texas

Florida

New

York

Pennsylvania

Ohio

IllinoisG

eorgiaN

orth Carolina

Michigan

Tennessee

Arizona

Alabam

aL

ouisianaIndianaM

issouriK

entuckyV

irginiaN

ew Jersey

South C

arolinaW

ashingtonM

ississippiO

klahoma

Massachusetts

Arkansas

Wisconsin

Colorado

Oregon

Maryland

Minnesota

West V

irginiaN

ew M

exicoN

evadaIow

aK

ansasC

onnecticutU

tahIdahoN

ebraskaM

aineM

ontanaH

awaii

Rhode island

New

Ham

pshireD

elaware

South D

akotaA

laskaD

ist of Col

Verm

ontW

yoming

North D

akota

U.S. = 28,770,543

* 200% of Poverty Level

Number of U.S. Residents Ages 18 to 64 in Families with Incomes Below a Living Wage by Education Level Completed, 2005


4,919,256

8,050,077

15,801,210

7,144,389

2,030,7292,765,001

887,438

0

3,000,000

6,000,000

9,000,000

12,000,000

15,000,000

18,000,000

Less than 9thGrade


High SchoolDiploma

Some College Associates Bachelor's Graduate andProfessional

U.S. = 28,770,543

Proportion of Residents Ages 18 to 64 in Families with Incomes Below a Living Wage Within Each Education Attainment Category, 2005


61.0%

46.5%

29.9%

17.5%14.5%

8.9%5.5%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Less than 9thGrade


High SchoolDiploma

Some College Associates Bachelor's Graduate andProfessional

Sources: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey: Public Use Microdata Samples

19,524,074

14,494,128

8,339,734

Target Population (Exclusive Categories)

138,127,986

18 to 64 Year Olds, 2005

Target Population42,357,936

(23.5%)

ESL: High School Diploma Only or Less – No or Poor Ability to Speak English

Not Prepared for College or Work: High School Diploma Only, In Families Earning Less than a Living Wage (Not ESL)

No High School Diploma or Equivalent (Not ESL)

Note: Incarcerated population not separated out. All of the above categories include incarcerated individuals.

Adult Education and Literacy: Target Population in 2005

Sources: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey: Public Use Microdata SamplesNote: Incarcerated population not separated out. All of the above categories include incarcerated individuals.

Adult Education and Literacy: Target Populations as a Percentage of all 18 to 64 Year Olds by State, 2005

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Mississippi

Arkansas

Texas

Louisiana

West V

irginiaA

labama

Kentucky

New

Mexico

Tennessee

South C

arolinaC

aliforniaN

evadaG

eorgiaO

klahoma

Nor th C

arolinaA

rizonaF

loridaIdahoU

nited States

Missouri

IndianaD

ist of Col

New

York

Ohio

Delaw

areO

regonA

laskaIllinoisP

ennsylvaniaR

hode islandM

aineS

outh Dakota

Michigan

Virginia

Kansas

Washington

Montana

Colorado

New

JerseyU

tahIow

aM

arylandW

yoming

Nebraska

Massachusetts

Wisconsin

Verm

ontH

awaii

Connecticut

New

Ham

pshireM

innesotaN

or th Dakota

ESL: High School Diploma Only or Less, No or Poor Ability to Speak English

High School Diploma, Earning Less than a Living Wage (Not ESL)

Less than a High School Diploma or Equivalent (Not ESL)

32.4

30.5

30.3

29.9

29.7

29.3

29.0

28.9

28.2

27.5

27.2

27.1

26.3

25.9

25.9

25.8

24.6

24.2

23.5

23.1

17.9

17.5

17.4

17.3

16.9

16.8

16.2

16.1

15.9

15.0

13.6

13.6

22.9

22.9

22.7

21.9

21.5

21.2

21.2

20.9

20.8

20.2

20.1

20.0

19.6

19.4

18.8

18.7

18.6

18.4

18.4

17.9

Incarceration Rate in the U.S. – Prisoners Under Federal and State Jurisdiction Per 100,000 Residents, 1980 to 2005

Source: US Bureau of Justice Statistics, US Census Bureau

146

211

311

428

494515

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

There were 1,525,924

prisoners in 2005

Incarceration Rate by State in 2005 – Prisoners Under Federal and State Jurisdiction Per 100,000 Residents

Source: US Bureau of Justice Statistics, US Census Bureau

823

798

739

725

702

700

612

564

554

544

537

531

515

505

490

488

486

482

477

472

471

467

460

446

442

419

410

406

402

400

390

375

368

352

341

341

340

334

330

326

314

295

292

276

258

253

218

193

181

167

153

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

Delaw

areL

ouisianaT

exasA

laskaM

ississippiO

klahoma

Alabam

aA

rizonaC

onnecticutS

outh Carolina

Georgia

Missouri

United S

tatesF

loridaM

ichiganN

evadaA

rkansasH

awaii

IdahoC

aliforniaK

entuckyV

irginiaC

oloradoS

outh Dakota

Tennessee

North C

arolinaW

isconsinM

arylandW

yoming

Ohio

IndianaM

ontanaO

regonIllinoisP

ennsylvaniaN

ew M

exicoR

hode IslandV

ermont

Kansas

New

York

New

JerseyIow

aW

est Virginia

Washington

Utah

Nebraska

North D

akotaN

ew H

ampshire

Minnesota

Massachusetts

Maine

Educational Attainment of 18 to 64 Year Olds – Total U.S. Population vs. the Prison Population

Source: US Bureau of Justice Statistics 2002 data, US Census Bureau 2005 data

4.5%

9.6%

29.3%

22.6%

34.0%

12.3%

31.6%

43.1%

10.1%

2.9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Less than 9th Grade 9th to 12th Grade,No Diploma

High SchoolGraduate (Includes

Equivalency)

Some CollegeNo Degree

College Graduate orMore

Total Population Prison Population

Performance

• ABE Participation (data available only for state administered adult education programs)

• GED Production

• College Participation of Non-Traditional Adults

Enrollment in State-Administered Adult Education Programs per 1,000 Residents with Less than a High School Diploma by Age-Group, 2005

(United States)

Source: US Department of Education

* 16 to 24 year olds with no high school diploma or equivalent, not enrolled

278

107

22

0

70

140

210

280

350

16 to 24* 25 to 44 45 and Older

Enrollment of 16 to 24 Year Olds in State-Administered Adult Education Programs per 1,000 16 to 24 Year Olds with Less than a High School Diploma, 2005

Source: US Department of Education* 16 to 24 year olds with no high school diploma or equivalent, not enrolled

788

606

533

481

446

429

405

381

380

365

361

341

339

322

321

320

308

298

296

278

272

251

245

236

231

229

226

220

219

212

208

207

206

195

195

192

192

190

186

185

181

176

153

152

150

139

118

116

109

95 9263

0

200

400

600

800

Florida

Connecticut

Haw

aiiN

orth Dakota

North C

arolinaA

rkansasM

innesotaC

aliforniaS

outh Carolina

Verm

ontU

tahM

aineD

is of Col

Tennessee

IllinoisG

eorgiaN

ebraskaIndianaN

ew M

exicoU

nited States

Mississippi

Wisconsin

Delaw

areL

ouisianaK

entuckyW

est Virginia

South D

akotaA

laskaR

hode IslandN

ew Y

orkW

yoming

Iowa

Missouri

Washington

Montana

Pennsylvania

Oklahom

aN

ew H

ampshire

Ohio

Oregon

Kansas

Maryland

Alabam

aN

ew Jersey

IdahoV

irginiaM

ichiganM

assachusettsT

exasC

oloradoA

rizonaN

evada

Enrollment of 25 to 44 Year Olds in State-Administered Adult Education Programs per 1,000 25 to 44 Year Olds with Less than a High School Diploma, 2005

Source: US Department of Education

250

213

187

168

158

153

146

141

139

138

129

128

127

123

115

107

107

103

98 96 95 94 94 93 89 89 87 86 85 85 84 82 80 80 79 77 76 75 74 73 71 70 68 6655 54 52 52 48 48

42 38

0

70

140

210

280

Minnesota

Florida

Utah

South C

arolinaC

onnecticutA

rkansasIllinoisC

aliforniaN

ew M

exicoW

ashingtonH

awaii

New

York

North C

arolinaM

aineA

laskaN

ebraskaU

nited States

Georgia

Rhode Island

New

Ham

pshireM

issouriW

isconsinD

elaware

South D

akotaN

ew Jersey

Kentucky

Tennessee

Pennsylvania

Maryland

Iowa

Dis of C

olO

regonW

yoming

IndianaM

ississippiN

orth Dakota

Ohio

Oklahom

aM

assachusettsW

est Virginia

IdahoM

ontanaV

irginiaM

ichiganV

ermont

Louisiana

Kansas

Arizona

Colorado

Texas

Nevada

Alabam

a

GEDs Awarded Per 1,000 Adults with Less than a High School Diploma or Equivalent by Age-Group, 2005

(United States)

Source: GED Testing Service, US Census Bureau 2005 ACS data


84.5

14.9

4.70.5

0

20

40

60

80

100

16 to 24* 25 to 34 35 to 49 50 and Older

GEDs Awarded to Adults Ages 16 to 24 per 1,000 Adults Ages 16 to 24* with Less than a High School Diploma or Equivalent, 2005



202

185

183

156

153

141

141

138

130

129

128

125

123

121

120

117

117

114

110

110

109

109

106

106

106

106

105

100

96 95 94 92 92 88 85 84 84 82 79 78 76 75 74 71 70 70 6863 62

33 31

0

60

120

180

240

North D

akotaV

ermont

Haw

aiiM

ontanaA

laskaM

aineW

yoming

Virginia

South D

akotaU

tahA

rkansasW

est Virginia

Oregon

Massachusetts

Minnesota

Kansas

New

York

Tennessee

Nebraska

Wisconsin

Dis of C

olC

oloradoIdahoN

ew M

exicoK

entuckyW

ashingtonO

klahoma

Florida

Mississippi

Georgia

Rhode island

IndianaP

ennsylvaniaIow

aN

ew H

ampshire

United S

tatesO

hioM

issouriC

onnecticutIllinoisA

labama

North C

arolinaL

ouisianaM

ichiganA

rizonaN

ew Jersey

Maryland

South C

arolinaN

evadaT

exasC

aliforniaD

elaware

North Dakota = 340


3935 35

32 3130 29

2726

25 25 25 2523 23 23

21 21 20 20 20 1918 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 17 17 17 17 17 16

15 15 15 14 14 14 13 13 13 1312

1110 9 9

6

0

15

30

45

Alaska

North D

akotaM

aineW

yoming

Wisconsin

South D

akotaM

ontanaIow

aK

entuckyO

hioT

ennesseeW

est Virginia

Oklahom

aM

innesotaV

irginiaN

ew H

ampshire

Arkansas

Washington

Pennsylvania

Missouri

IndianaIdahoM

ississippiL

ouisianaN

ebraskaG

eorgiaU

tahH

awaii

Oregon

Kansas

New

York

Colorado

New

Mexico

Connecticut

Arizona

New

JerseyN

orth Carolina

IllinoisU

nited States

Massachusetts

Rhode island

Florida

Michigan

Verm

ontM

arylandA

labama

South C

arolinaT

exasD

elaware

Nevada

Dis of C

olC

aliforniaGEDs Awarded to Adults Ages 25 to 34 per 1,000 Adults Ages 25 to 34

with Less than a High School Diploma or Equivalent, 2005

Percent of All GEDs Awarded to High School Aged Students (16 to 18 Years Old), from 1990 to 2005

Source: GED Testing Service

21.9

27.2

32.433.7

0

10

20

30

40%

1990 1995 2000 2005

Distribution (%) of GEDs Awarded by Age-Group, 1990 and 2005

Source: GED Testing Service

1.0

6.8

14.1 13.9

25.1

12.7

9.5

6.0 6.2

2.3

0.8

3.9

13.7

16.1

10.9

25.6

11.9

6.7

4.4 4.9

1.50.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30%

16 17 18 19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-49 50-59 60 +

1990 2005

Age

Change in the Percentage of All GEDs Awarded to High School Aged Students (Ages 16 to 18) by State from 1990 and 2005

Source: GED Testing Service Note: 1990 data not available for CA, HI, ID, IL, LA, NV, WV

33.7

25.9

25.7

25.6

22.3

21.8

20.7

20.4

20.1

20.1

19.6

19.3

18.0

15.8

15.6

14.8

14.6

13.7

13.6

13.5

13.4

12.4

12.4

12.3

11.8

11.8

11.6

10.6

10.3

10.2

9.8

9.5

9.3

9.2

9.1

8.9

7.0

6.6

5.2

4.1

1.9

-0.1

-0.5

-3.0

-21.

9

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Massachusetts

IndianaK

entuckyN

orth Dakota

Georgia

Flor ida

Arkansas

Alabam

aM

ichiganO

klahoma

Montana

Rhode Island

Maryland

Nebraska

Washington

Utah

Verm

ontM

issouriN

orth Carolina

Virginia

Oregon

Mississippi

South D

akotaW

isconsinU

nited States

Maine

Delaw

areN

ew H

ampshire

Iowa

New

York

Tennessee

Alaska

New

JerseyN

ew M

exicoC

oloradoK

ansasS

outh Carolina

Texas

Ohio

Minnesota

Connecticut

Distr ict of C

olumbia

Arizona

Pennsylvania

Wyom

ing

Enrollment of 25 to 49 Year Olds as a Percentage of 25 to 49 Year Olds with a High School Diploma But No College (2005)

Sources: NCES, IPEDS Enrollment Survey; US Census Bureau 2005 ACS data

40.1

%24

.1%

23.2

%22

.0%

19.8

%18

.6%

17.7

%17

.0%

16.9

%16

.7%

16.1

%15

.1%

15.0

%14

.8%

14.7

%14

.7%

14.5

%14

.5%

14.4

%14

.3%

14.0

%14

.0%

13.9

%13

.7%

13.2

%13

.1%

13.0

%12

.9%

12.8

%12

.2%

12.0

%12

.0%

11.4

%11

.1%

11.1

%10

.9%

10.9

%10

.7%

10.7

%10

.6%

10.5

%10

.5%

9.7%

9.6%

9.6%

9.1%

9.0%

8.6%

8.5%

7.6%

7.5%

0%

15%

30%

45%

Arizona

Utah

California

New

Mexico

Colorado

IllinoisW

ashingtonN

orth Dakota

Iowa

Oregon

Nebraska

Minnesota

Kansas

Maryland

Alaska

IdahoM

ichiganO

klahoma

Texas

United S

tatesS

outh Dakota

Wyom

ingN

orth Carolina

Florida

Nevada

Missouri

Virginia

Haw

aiiW

isconsinK

entuckyR

hode IslandA

labama

New

York

Montana

IndianaG

eorgiaA

rkansasO

hioM

assachusettsM

ississippiN

ew Jersey

Delaw

areM

aineC

onnecticutS

outh Carolina

Tennessee

Verm

ontW

est Virginia

New

Ham

pshireP

ennsylvaniaL

ouisiana

The Importance of the “Re-Entry” Pipeline and the Ability of the U.S.

to Remain Globally Competitive

Current Educational Attainment, Educational Attainment in 2025 with Current Degree Production, and the Best Performing Countries in 2025

(United States)

37.4%41.9%

45.9%

55.0%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Current Percentage ofAdults 25 to 64 with

College Degrees(2005)

Projected Percentagein 2025 with Current

Annual DegreeProduction

Projected Percentagein 2025 with Current

Annual DegreeProduction and Net

Migration

Percentage Needed toReach Best-Performing

Countries by 2025

How Can the U.S. Reach International Competitiveness?

Current Degree Production Combined with Population Growth and Migration, and Best Performance* on the Student Transition and Completion Measures

63,127,642

60,790,073

7,347,209

3,270,900

1,265,118

7,045,932

1,255,167

40,605,747

0 20 40 60 80

Degrees Needed to Meet Best Performance (55%)

Total Degrees Produced from 2005 to 2025 If All ofthe Above

Reaching Best Performance In Rates of DegreeProduction Per FTE Student

Reaching Best Performance In College-Going Ratesby 2025

Reaching Best Performance In High SchoolGraduation Rates by 2025

Additional Degrees from Net Migration of College-Educated Residents

Additional Degrees from Population Growth

Degrees Produced from 2005 to 2025 with CurrentRate of Production

Millions

Performance Measures Are Cumulative and Are

Based on Traditional College-Age Students

* Best performance is the average of the top three states.

Even Best Performance with Traditional College-Aged Students at Each Stage of the Educational Pipeline Will Leave Gaps in More than 30 States

2,7888,89810,87523,54224,74125,32628,65934,54737,70639,43644,75747,42053,57453,99562,33265,85374,752

110,495112,681114,375115,120122,061132,748

159,765186,640

204,814287,565

307,956320,720

560,688893,504

1,333,645

0 300,000 600,000 900,000 1,200,000 1,500,000

IndianaMissouri

ConnecticutMarylandWyoming

GeorgiaHawaii

MontanaIdahoMaine

WisconsinNew Mexico

MichiganOregon

OklahomaAlaska

West VirginiaAlabama

South CarolinaOhio

MississippiArizona

North CarolinaKentuckyArkansasLouisiana

NevadaTennessee

New JerseyCalifornia

FloridaTexas

In order to reach international competitiveness by 2025, the U.S. and 32 states can’t close the gap with

even best performance with traditional college students. They must rely on the re-entry pipeline – getting older adults back into the education system

and on track to attaining college degrees.

The Benefits

Average Personal Income of 25 to 64 Year Olds by Level of Education Completed, 2005

$91,797

$107,353

$66,919

$54,532

$37,716

$34,644

$27,367

$22,319

$19,095

$18,031

$17,189

$15,840

$14,894

$15,531

$0 $30,000 $60,000 $90,000 $120,000

Doctorate degree

Professional degree

Masters degree

Bachelors degree

Associate degree

Some college, no degree

High school graduate, or GED

12th grade, no diploma

11th grade

10th grade

9th grade

5th-8th grade

1st-4th grade

No school completed



$91,797

$107,353

$66,919

$54,532

$37,716

$34,644

$27,367

$0 $30,000 $60,000 $90,000 $120,000

Doctorate degree

Professional degree

Masters degree

Bachelors degree

Associate degree




11th grade

10th grade

9th grade

5th-8th grade

1st-4th grade

No school completed


If these residents were to complete high school or equivalent, and the

additional earnings associated it, the U.S. would experience a $191 billion

increase in personal income


$91,797

$107,353

$66,919

$54,532

$37,716

$34,644

$0 $30,000 $60,000 $90,000 $120,000

Doctorate degree

Professional degree

Masters degree

Bachelors degree

Associate degree




11th grade

10th grade

9th grade

5th-8th grade

1st-4th grade

No school completed


If these residents were to complete an associates degree, and the additional earnings associated it, the U.S. would experience a $848 billion increase in

personal income

AK

AZ

AR

DE

GA

HI

IL

INIA

KS

LA

ME

MD

MA

MT

NE

NV

NJ

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

OR

PARI

SC

SD

VT

VA

WA

US

AL

CA

CO

CT

FL

IDKY

MI

MN

MS

MO

NH

NM

TNTX

UT

WV

WI

WY

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

$45,000

$2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

Personal Income Per

Capita, 2003

Actual Tax Revenues Per Capita, 2003

The Relationship Between Personal Income and Tax Revenues

Correlation = 0.84

Percent of Adults with a High School Diploma or

Higher

The Relationship Between Education and Health

State Health Index, United Health Foundation

Correlation = 0.76

AK

AZAR

DE

GA

HI

ILIN

IA

KS

LA

ME

MD

MA

MT

NE

NV

NJ

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

OR

PA

RI

SC

SD VT

VA

WA

US

AL

CA

CO

CT

FL

ID

KY

MI

MN

MS

MO

NH

NMTN

TX

UT

WV

WI

WY

80

85

90

95

-25 0 25

Summary• For the first time in history, the U.S. is losing ground to other

countries in educational attainment of its workforce

• Increasing demand for higher levels of education within our own workforce – particularly in occupations that pay a living wage

• Shifting demographics – within our workforce, race/ethnic populations that are growing at the highest rates are the least-educated, the most likely to drop out of high school, and the least successful in college.

• Large Target Populations that Are Underserved

• We are leaving a large segment of this population behind

• Improvements in adult education and literacy are vital for the U.S. to remain competitive

• There are tangible benefits to increasing the levels of education of those who fell out of the education system.

Documents

Patrick J. Kelly National Center for Higher Education Management Systems