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1 Nordea efter den finansiella krisen Falun 2 September 2010 Rodney Alfvén Head of Investor Relations

Nordea – the leading Nordic bank…

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Nordea efter den finansiella krisen Falun 2 September 2010 Rodney Alfvén Head of Investor Relations. Nordea – the leading Nordic bank…. A unique customer base Approx. 7.7 mill. household customers in programmes, 0.7 mill. active corporate customers. Global Other Group ¹ 10%. Norway 15%. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Nordea – the leading Nordic bank…

1

Nordea efter den finansiella krisen Falun2 September 2010

Rodney AlfvénHead of Investor Relations

Page 2: Nordea – the leading Nordic bank…

2

Nordea – the leading Nordic bank…

Corporate lending % % Share of Group income (size of bubbles)

Finland21%

Norway15%

Denmark25%

Sweden23%

Global Other

Group¹10%

New E

uropea

n Marke

ts

6%

1) Shipping, Oil Services & International, Financial Institutions, International Private Banking and Group Functions

A unique customer baseApprox. 7.7 mill. household customers in programmes, 0.7 mill. active corporate customers

Strong distribution powerApprox. 1,400 branches of which 270 in NEM

Financial strengthEUR 20.5bn in tier 1 capital Tier 1 ratio 11.1% excl transition rules

Market capitalisationEUR 28bn

DiversificationNo single market accounts for more than one quarter of Nordea’s incomeHousehold lending %

Page 3: Nordea – the leading Nordic bank…

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29.7

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Allied Irish Banks

Bank of Ireland

Commerzbank

Swedbank

SEB

Erste

KBC

Danske Bank

SHB

DnBNOR

Intesa Sanpaolo

Nordea

Societe Generale

RBS

BBVA

Unicredit

Barclays

Lloyds

BNP Paribas

Santander

…and one of the larger banks in Europe

EURbn

Source: ThomsonReuters Datastream

Page 4: Nordea – the leading Nordic bank…

4

Macro economic stabilisation in the Nordic region

Growth rates expected to be solid in the Nordic countries

In 2010, all Nordic countries are expected to have:

Positive growth rates

Modest inflation

Relatively strong public finances

Improvements in labour markets

GDP growth, %, y/y

Source: Nordea Markets

08 09 10 11 12-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6 % y/y % y/y

Finland Norway Denmark Sweden

Public finances, % of GDP

08 09 10 11 12-10.0

-7.5

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

-10.0

-7.5

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0 % of GDP % of GDP

USA

Euro area

Denmark

Finland

Sweden

Norway +12-18%

Page 5: Nordea – the leading Nordic bank…

5

Continued strong customer business

Q2 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010

Q2 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010

Q2 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010

Impaired loans

Income in Corporate segment

Income in Household segment

Q2 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010

Number of Gold customers

Q2 2009 Q2 2010 Q2 2010

Lending volumes

Q2 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010

Total income

Page 6: Nordea – the leading Nordic bank…

6

Result highlights

EURm H1/10 H1/09 Chg % H2/09 Chg %

Net interest income 2,484 2,661 -7 2,620 -5

Net fee and commission income 1,013 793 28 900 13

Net result from items at fair value 887 1,109 -20 837 6

Other income 80 75 7 78 3

Total income 4,464 4,638 -4 4,435 1

Staff costs -1,388 -1,352 3 -1,372 1

Total expenses -2,350 -2,206 7 -2,306 2

Profit before loan losses 2,114 2,432 -13 2,129 -1

Net loan losses -506 -781 -35 -705 -28

Operating profit 1,608 1,651 -3 1,424 13

Net profit 1,182 1,245 -5 1,073 10

Risk-adjusted profit 1,194 1,524 -22 1,262 -5

Page 7: Nordea – the leading Nordic bank…

7

1,305 1,2991,235 1,249

1,321

Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10

EURm

Net interest income held up well in H1 2010, despite the low interest rate level

Solid trend in customer operations continues

Lending and deposit volumes up

Margins stable

Remains subdued by the low interest rate levels

Lower contribution from Group Treasury

Slight increase in average funding cost when maturing long-term funding was prolonged at higher market rates

Page 8: Nordea – the leading Nordic bank…

8

% change in unchanged currency Q2oQ1June 2010 /

June 2009

Total Lending, excl. reversed repurchase agreements 2 4

–Nordic household mortgages 2 9

–Nordic consumer lending 1 7

–Nordic corporates 2 0

–New European Markets 4 1

–FID and Shipping 3 -3

Total Deposits, excl. repurchase agreements -1 -1

–Nordic households 2 3

–Nordic corporates 1 1

–New European Markets -2 -6

–FID and Shipping 4 -19

Underlying volume trends

Page 9: Nordea – the leading Nordic bank…

9

Interest rate sensitivity- 3 components

Structural interest income risk (SIIR)

Reflecting the effect on NII from re-pricing gaps*

Dynamic effects on net interest income

Changes in deposit margins – mainly transaction accounts

Market risk in the interest-bearing investment portfolios

Market risk has an immediate effect on the net result from items at fair value

Increased market rates, 100 bps Q2/10 Q1/10

EURm

Annualised positive impact on Net interest income, approx.

430 450

Non-recurring negative impact on Net result from items at fair value, approx.

-230 -100

* Accumulated mismatch between assets and liabilities with an interest rate duration of less than 12 months, with the assumptions that non-maturity accounts are re-priced immediately following a interest rate change, without effecting margins

Page 10: Nordea – the leading Nordic bank…

10

412

463 475

538

437

Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10

EURm

Strong net fee and commission income

Higher income contribution from corporate advice

Continued strong performance in the savings area

High activity in capital markets

Page 11: Nordea – the leading Nordic bank…

11

468

-91

425413

-82

358452

-135

346358

-97

261316

-128

245

58

4827

29

Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10

Gross loan losses Danish guarantee scheme

DK, 42%

OTHER, 2%NEM, 17%

SOSI, 6%

SE, 0%

NO, 4%

FI, 29%

Loan losses by area Q2 2010

EURm

Credit quality improving during 2010

Net loan losses down to 36 bps in H1 2010 (55 bps last year)

30 bps individual (42 bps)

6 bps collective (13 bps)

140 bps in the Baltic countries (166 bps)

Excluding guarantee scheme provisions, net loan loss ratio down to 32 bps (51 bps)

Decreased loan losses in most areas

Impaired loans gross down 1% in Q2 52% of impaired loans performing

Reversals Net loan losses

Page 12: Nordea – the leading Nordic bank…

12

Strong capital position maintained –and strong funding despite challenging quarter

9.2 9.2 9.010.3 10.1 10.0

Q2/09 Q1/10 Q2/10

Transition rules Fully implemented Basel II

Core tier 1 capital ratio (excl. hybrids), % Core tier 1 ratio 10.0%

High volume increase but stabilising rating migration affect RWA

EUR 20.9bn of long-term funding issued in H1 2010

In June, after several weeks of no market supply, Nordea reopened the senior unsecured market

22 23

31

20.9

2007 2008 2009 H1 2010

Total long-term funding issued, EURbn

Page 13: Nordea – the leading Nordic bank…

13

Basel III – the answer to the financial crises

Page 14: Nordea – the leading Nordic bank…

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The crises was built up during a long time period

70

75

80

85

90

95

93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07

32%

34%

36%

38%

40%

42%

Share of Home mortage debtin total non federal debt

Construction spending as % of GDPleft scale

70

75

80

85

90

95

93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07

32%

34%

36%

38%

40%

42%

Share of Home mortage debtin total non federal debt

Construction spending as % of GDPleft scale

Source: Bloomberg

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

96 98 00 02 04 06 08

6.2

6.4

6.6

6.8

7

7.2

7.4

Mortgage Bankers FRM 30y

New home sales (in log)right scale

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

96 98 00 02 04 06 08

6.2

6.4

6.6

6.8

7

7.2

7.4

Mortgage Bankers FRM 30y

New home sales (in log)right scale

New home sales and 30-year mortgage rates Construction as a % of GDP and weight of mortgage debt in the US

Page 15: Nordea – the leading Nordic bank…

15

Total Issuance of Structured Finance by Region (US$bn)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

U.S Euro Area Asia

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

U.S Euro Area Asia

Source: BIS

Page 16: Nordea – the leading Nordic bank…

16

Total leveraged loans – including Finance Leveraged Buyouts

Source: Datastream

0

50

100

150

200

250

T1 99 T1 00 T1 01 T1 02 T1 03 T1 04 T1 05 T1 06 T1 07

Total Leveraged Loans

Loans to Finance Leveraged Buy-outs

0

50

100

150

200

250

T1 99 T1 00 T1 01 T1 02 T1 03 T1 04 T1 05 T1 06 T1 07

Total Leveraged Loans

Loans to Finance Leveraged Buy-outs

US$ bn by quarter

Page 17: Nordea – the leading Nordic bank…

17

Leading to “super-profit” in financials

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009

Financials

All

Financials' super-profits

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009

Financials

All

Financials' super-profits

Source : Datastream

Profits relative to nominal GDP in Europe(base 100 = Q1 1973)

Page 18: Nordea – the leading Nordic bank…

18

Losses and write-downs

Rescue packages

Bail-outs

Capital injections State-sponsored

hybrid capital

Fiscal stimulus packages

Funding guarantees

Rate cuts Liquidity injections

The financial crisis – impact and response

Funding problems

Capital problems

Regulatory initiatives for ”Never again”

Some clarity

Capital Liquidity Systemic risk Remuneration

2007 2008 2009 2010

Response

Page 19: Nordea – the leading Nordic bank…

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Broad agreement in July 2010 on Basel III changes and implementation plan

Nordea anticipates final details towards the end of the year – including new proposal on NSFR and capital buffers

Uncertainty remains high – questions around NSFR and leverage ratio

Increased cost of capital expected, likely to impact pricing to customers

?Oct 2010July 2010 Dec 2010 Dec 2012 Jan 2018

Basel release of details for 2012 and new

proposals for 2018

Basel Oversightbody, broad agreement

Basel Committee meeting Implementation

capital regulation+ LCR

Implementation leverage ratio +

NSFR

G20 meeting

Test/observation phase for leverage

ratio + NSFR 2013-2017

Page 20: Nordea – the leading Nordic bank…

20

Capital position strong, for regulations and growth

Limited impact from capital base adjustments

Tier 1 hybrids assumed to be replaced by new tier 1 capital types

Uncertainty on capital buffers Nordea assessed to be in a good position

Leverage ratio Netting approach for derivatives

Nordea assessed to be above threshold of 3%

Nordea’s capital ratios well above targets and current regulatory threshold

9.010.0

11.8

Core Tier 1 ratio(excl. hybrids)

Tier 1 ratio Capital ratio

Transition rules Fully implemented Basel II

10.011.1

13.2

11.5

9.08.0

Capital ratios H1 2010, %

Targets Threshold

Page 21: Nordea – the leading Nordic bank…

21

Liquidity – changes in right direction, but proposal still conservative and challenging for the industry Changed parameters for Liquidity Coverage Ratio, LCR

Broader definition of qualifying assets in liquidity buffer

Milder stress scenarios

But internal covered bonds still not eligible, despite high quality and central bank eligibility

Prolonged observation phase for Net Stable Funding Ratio, NSFR Observation phase 2013-2017, final version from 2018

Still challenging for the industry given the size of the funding gap relative to funding market capacity

Uncertainty remains high around the final regulation and the implementation

Page 22: Nordea – the leading Nordic bank…

22

Journey to Great Nordea

Page 23: Nordea – the leading Nordic bank…

23

Great Nordea framework

Profit orientation & prudence

Ambitious vision & targets

Strong customer- oriented values &

culture

Growth to free up resources to improve customer satisfaction

Growth to create value to our shareholders

Without this as the foundation, there is no bank – through the cycle

Need to set targets to be able to reach the goals

Motivation to perform extraordinarily

Nine countries, and everything different

Common values and platform to form one team

Rationale

Clear growth strategy

Page 24: Nordea – the leading Nordic bank…

24

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

H1

2002

H2

2002

H1

2003

H2

2003

H1

2004

H2

2004

H1

2005

H2

2005

H1

2006

H2

2006

H1

2007

H2

2007

H1

2008

H2

2008

H1

2009

H2

2009

H1

2010

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Bps

Strong credit management – moderate creditrisk appetite over the cycle

Credit risk appetite 25 bps

Profit orientation and prudence

Loan loss ratio

Page 25: Nordea – the leading Nordic bank…

25

%

Source: Swedish Riksbank, Standard & Poor’s

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Nor

dea

HS

BC

DnB

NO

R

Dex

ia

SE

B

Sw

edba

nk

SH

B

KB

C

San

tand

er

Bar

clay

s

Cre

dit S

uiss

e

Cre

dit A

gric

ole

Soc

iété

Gén

éral

e

LBB

W

Uni

Cre

dit

Inte

sa S

anpa

olo

Dan

ske

Ban

k

Deu

tsch

e B

ank

BN

P P

arib

as AIB

Bay

eris

che

LB

UB

S

Citi

grou

p

Strongest capital position among a selected group of major international banks

Risk-adjusted capital ratios

Profit orientation and prudence

Page 26: Nordea – the leading Nordic bank…

26

One of the most stable profit development among banks in Europe

Profit before tax development through the financial crisis (Indexed)

Index = 100

* Calculation based on covariance of 13 quarters operating profits 2007 – Q2 2010** Nordic peers: Danske Bank, DnB NOR, SEB, SHB, Swedbank

Profit orientation and prudence

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

07Q1

07Q2

07Q3

07Q4

08Q1

08Q2

08Q3

08Q4

09Q1

09Q2

09Q3

09Q4

10Q1

Nordea

European peers

Nordic peers

Page 27: Nordea – the leading Nordic bank…

27

Delivery on long-term targets

Top quartile

Total shareholder return1 Jan 2007- 16 Aug 2010

Risk-adjusted profitrolling 4 quarters development

2007 – Q2 2010

RoE 2007 – Q2 2010

Nordea has reported one of the highest average return on equity (RoE) of Nordic peers¹, 14.4%

¹Nordic peers: Danske Bank, DnB NOR, SEB, SHB, Swedbank

41.4%

25.5%

Q107 Q207 Q307 Q407 Q108 Q208 Q308 Q4/08 Q1/09 Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10

Rolling four quarters compared with FY 2006 EUR 1,957mLong-term target for average yearly growth

Ambitious vision & targets

0.0

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

Alli

ed Ir

ish

Ban

ks

RB

S

Ban

k of

Irel

and

Com

mer

zban

k

Lloy

ds

KB

C

Uni

cred

it

Soc

iete

Gen

eral

e

Sw

edba

nk

SE

B

Inte

sa S

anpa

olo

Bar

clay

s

Dan

ske

Ban

k

Ers

te

BB

VA

BN

P P

arib

as

San

tand

er

Nor

dea

DnB

NO

R

SH

B

Page 28: Nordea – the leading Nordic bank…

28

Strong customer-oriented values and culture –become part of DNA

Foundation:Profit orientation and

prudent cost, risk and capital management

A Great European Bank,acknowledged for its people, creating

superior value for customers and shareholders

Great customer experiences

It’s all about people One Nordea team

Values

Page 29: Nordea – the leading Nordic bank…

2929

Customer satisfaction improving versus competitors

Nordea

2007 2009

Peers

-0.6 3.9

71.267.6

70.6+0.9

- 3.6

CSI index (aggregate) 2007-2009*

71.5

*Corporate and high involvement customers, corresponding to Gold and Silver segment customers

Values

Page 30: Nordea – the leading Nordic bank…

30

Prudent growth strategy – Group initiatives andstrong business development

Page 31: Nordea – the leading Nordic bank…

31

We continue on the journey to Great and to deliver on our long-term target

Great Nordea

07 08 09 10 11 12

Middle of the road

Keep income growth momentum

Cost, risk and capital take the lead

Enable us to accelerate out of the crisis

Profitable organic growth Prudent growth

Organic growth strategyNext level strategy based

on stronger position

Group initiatives launched to support the strategy

Next generation of initiatives launched

Page 32: Nordea – the leading Nordic bank…

32

Benefits of universal relationship banking –clearly in focus for the growth

Why relationship banking?

Satisfying customer needs … … while focusing on the most attractive customer groups

Capital efficiency through full customer wallet …

… at a low risk

• Safety and stability

• “Someone who cares”

• Full range of advice

• Customer needs driven innovation

• Most profitable

• Highest potential

• Most satisfied and loyal

• High efficiency in service

• Balanced and diversified business mix, e.g., lending and deposits

• Complemented by, e.g., capital-efficient asset management products

• Low losses, eg, Gold customers with automated credit scoring

• Knowing and being close to Corporate customers

• Diversification from Corporate and Household mix

Growth strategy

Page 33: Nordea – the leading Nordic bank…

33

Trustworthy brand name

Quality of people

Demand-driven products

Proximity Customer base

Capital position

You need the right platform

One customer team

One value chain

Great customer experiences

Foundation: Profit orientation and prudent cost, risk and capital management

It’s all about people One Nordea team

A great European bank,

acknowledged for its people, creating superior

value for customers and shareholders

Customer-oriented values

Growth strategy

Page 34: Nordea – the leading Nordic bank…

34

Nordea has built the platform

One customer team

Customer base

Capital position

Trustworthy brand name

Quality of people

One value chain

Great customer experiences

Foundation: Profit orientation and prudent cost, risk and capital management

It’s all about people One Nordea team

A great European bank,

acknowledged for its people, creating superior

value for customers and shareholders

Customer-oriented values~ 8 m household

customers in programmes, 0.5 m corporate

One of strongest capital and funding positions in Europe

~6,000 PBAs, SRMs and RMs trained in -09

Nordea brand stronger than ever

1400 branches (160 Corporate), contact centres and netbank

E.g., top Morningstar ratings, No 1

Greenwich rating

Proximity

Demand-driven products

Growth strategy

Page 35: Nordea – the leading Nordic bank…

35

Prudent growth strategy supported by next generation of Group initiatives

Increase business with existing Nordic customers and attract new customers

Supplement Nordic growth through

investments in New European Markets

Exploit global and European business lines

Take Nordea to the next level of operational efficiency, support sustained growth

1. Future distribution

2. New customer acquisition

3. Growth plan Finland

6. Growth plan Poland

5. Customer-driven Markets business

4. Growth plan CMB Sweden

8. Product platforms7. Top league IT and operations

9. Infrastructure upgrade

Growth strategy

Page 36: Nordea – the leading Nordic bank…

36

Solid trend accelerated in 2010 – up 7.2% from one year ago

110,000 new Gold and Private Banking customers in H1 2010 – more than 70% new customers in Nordea

Improved market share in all countries

Significant increase of number of pro-active customer meetings

Continued strong customer demand in household segment – increased volumes with stable margins

Total income in household segment up 5%

Household strategy delivery: Value proposition attracts customers in premium segments

2,6902,812

2,885

Q2 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010

Number of Gold customers, ‘000

0.3

0.1 0.1

0.2

DK FI NO SE

Lending market share increase, %

Page 37: Nordea – the leading Nordic bank…

37

136 139144

Q2 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010

Increased business confidence - lending volumes up 4% in H1 2010

Continued strong demand for risk management products

Improved market share in Corporate Banking - strategy to build house-bank relations proven successful

Corporate strategy delivery: High activity – income up 7% in H1

Corporate lending, EURbn

0.1 0.1

-0.1

0.1

DK FI NO SE

Lending market share increase, %

Page 38: Nordea – the leading Nordic bank…

38

315342

372

Q2 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010

Strong income growth in Corporate Merchant Banking (CMB)

Strengthened market position – increased share of wallet

Improved position in capital markets Leading arranger of Nordic syndicated loans

Participation in execution of main Nordic transactions

New area established – Corporate Merchant Banking and Capital Markets

Ensure that all service and product competences of Nordea reach the large corporate customers

Headed by newly recruited – Casper von Koskull

Nordea’s relationship banking approach further strengthened

Total income CMB, EURm

Page 39: Nordea – the leading Nordic bank…

39

Concluding remarks

Page 40: Nordea – the leading Nordic bank…

40

Key messages

We are delivering according to our plan

Credit quality improving – impaired loans decreased in second quarter

More clarity with the agreement around Basel III, but some uncertainty remains

Continued strong customer business Income from corporate customers up 7% and from household customers up 5% in H1

Increased lending, deposits and AuM volumes

Solid inflow of new customers – increased market shares in all markets

Positive development in corporate finance business – relationship banking approach further strengthened

Focus on prudent growth and the execution of the Group initiatives On track in all areas