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Seafood weekly
22 April 2016
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Company ranking and recommendations
2 •
Source: Company data, FactSet and Nordea Markets
Nordea Nordea Consensus Consensus MNOK
Company Rec . Targe t p. Current price Upside % P/E (2017 ) EV/EBITDA (2017 )P /E (2017 ) EV/EBITDA (2017 )MCAP
Marine Harvest BUY 155.0 123.6 25.4% 10.0 x 6.9 x 10.8 x 7.6 x 55,620
SalMar BUY 230.0 192.5 19.5% 8.3 x 6.3 x 11.1 x 8.1 x 21,753
Leroy Seafood Group BUY 450.0 388.0 16.0% 7.6 x 5.0 x 9.5 x 6.0 x 21,146
Bakkafrost BUY 360.0 284.7 26.4% 8.9 x 5.9 x 12.7 x 8.8 x 13,908
Austevoll Seafood BUY 80.0 65.0 23.1% 5.8 x 4.5 x 7.7 x 3.9 x 13,182
Average la rge /mid cap 22 .1% 8 .1 x 5 .7 x 10 .4 x 6 .9 x 25 ,122
Norway Royal Salmon BUY 125.0 102.0 22.5% 8.7 x 6.0 x 8.7 x 6.2 x 4,590
Grieg Seafood ASA BUY 57.0 42.5 34.1% 6.2 x 4.6 x 7.7 x 5.3 x 4,718
Havfisk BUY 42.0 33.4 25.7% 11.0 x 6.1 x 11.2 x 7.1 x 2,772
Average sma ll cap 27 .5% 8 .6 x 5 .5 x 9 .2 x 6 .2 x 4 ,027
72.3082.76
124.06 124.78 134.66
158.77
222.29
0
50
100
150
200
250
SSC GSF NRS LSG MHG SALM BAKKA
EV
(N
OK
)/kil
o 2
016
EV/kg 2016E Average
Company EV/kg 2016E % of average
SSC 72.30 55 %
GSF 82.76 63 %
LSG 124.78 95 %
NRS 124.06 94 %
MHG 134.66 102 %
SALM 158.77 121 %
BAKKA 222.29 169 %
Average 131.37 100 %
Salmon supply and markets
3 •
Feed sales
4 •
Source: FHL and Nordea Markets
Feed sales, 2014-16 (weekly)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
fee
d s
ale
s (to
nnes)
2014 2015 2016
Sea temperature
5 •
Source: Lusedata.no
Norwegian Sea Temperatures - average
Average harvesting weight gutted
6 •
3.60
4.10
4.60
5.10
5.60
w 1
w 3
w 5
w 7
w 9
w 1
1
w 1
3
w 1
5
w 1
7
w 1
9
w 2
1
w 2
3
w 2
5
w 2
7
w 2
9
w 3
1
w 3
3
w 3
5
w 3
7
w 3
9
w 4
1
w 4
3
w 4
5
w 4
7
w 4
9
w 5
1
Avr
harv
esti
ng
weig
ht (
kg)
Avr 2004-2014 Avr weight gutted (2015)
Avr weight gutted (2014) Avr weight gutted (2016)
Source: FHL, Kontali and Nordea markets
Prices in Europe and USA
7 •
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
55.00
60.00
65.00
NO
K p
er
kilo
HO
G w
eig
ht
Norway Chile filet Canada HOG (8-10 lb)
Price development last Q2 2011 - today
Source: Kontali
Europe: NOS salmon prices 2012-15 and long term
8 •
Source: Kontali /NOS
NOS price development
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
NO
K p
r kg
Week
Range 2003-15 2013 2014 2015 2016
USA prices
9 •
Filets FOB Miami (UB 2-3 lb fresh D-trim) USA WC 8-10 lb
Source: Kontali
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
US
D/k
g
2014 2015 2016
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
US
D/k
g
2014 2015 2016
Brazil prices
10 •
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Week
1
Week
3
Week
5
Week
7
Week
9
Week
11
Week
13
Week
15
Week
17
Week
19
Week
21
Week
23
Week
25
Week
27
Week
29
Week
31
Week
33
Week
35
Week
37
Week
39
Week
41
Week
43
Week
45
Week
47
Week
49
Week
51
US
D p
er
kilo
HO
G
2014 2015 2016
Fresh salmon HOG, observed price in the Brazilian market
Norway
11 •
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
55.00
60.00
Pri
ce
NO
K/k
g H
OG
salm
on
Norway Cost Norway
Price development and cost - Norway
Source: Kontali
Chile
12 •
Source: Kontali
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
Pri
ce
NO
K/k
g H
OG
salm
on
Chile filet Cost Chile
Price development and cost - Chile
Salmon prices - France
13 •
Source: Kontali
13.514.4 14.6
13.0 12.513.2
14.5 14.8 15.314.2 14.6 14.5
15.7
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
EU
R/k
g
Fillets salmon average(2010-2015)
French retail prices – Atl.Salmon fillets – EUR/kg
Salmon supply growth 2012-17E
14 • Source: Kontali and Nordea Markets estimates
1431.30 1387.30 1465.80 1500.0 1451.692 1485.0
571.60 662.90
771.0 826.0
717.0 648.0 23.7 %
2.4 %
9.1 %
4.0 %
-6.8 %
-1.6 %
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
Gro
wth
rate
%1000 tons
Europe Total Other Supply growth% Demand growth (15Y avg)
15
Pelagic sector
16
Fish Meal and Soy bean meal prices
Source: Kontali and Nordea Markets
Fish Meal price development USD Soy Bean Meal price development
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
US
D/ton
2014 2015 2016
200
240
280
320
360
400
440
480
520
560
600
640
US
D/ton
2013 2014 2015 2016
17
Fish oil prices
Source: Kontali and Nordea Markets
Fish Oil price development
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2,400
2,800
US
D/ton
2013 2014 2015 2016
18
Fish Meal ratio
Source: Kontali and Nordea Markets
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
2014 2015 2016 10 YR av.
Q1 2016 financial calendar
19 •
Financial Calendar - Q1 2016
Company Reporting date
Havfisk 25.04.2016
Norw ay Royal Salmon 04.05.2016
Bakkafrost 10.05.2016
Marine Harvest 11.05.2016
SalMar 11.05.2016
Austevoll Seafood Group 12.05.2016
Lerøy Seafood Group 12.05.2016
Grieg Seafood 12.05.2016
AkvaGroup 12.05.2016
The Scottish Salmon Company 27.05.2016
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