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MEĐUNARODNI PROBLEMI INTERNATIONAL ... MEĐUNARODNI PROBLEMI INTERNATIONAL PROBLEMS Vol. LXVIII Beograd No. 1/2016. RASPRAVE I ČLANCI Slobodan JANKOVIĆ, Pravci turske spoljne politike:

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  • MEĐUNARODNI PROBLEMI

    INTERNATIONAL PROBLEMS

    Vol. LXVIII Beograd No. 1/2016.

    RASPRAVE I ČLANCI

    Slobodan JANKOVIĆ, Pravci turske spoljne politike: šta je ostalo od strategije za 2023. godinu? (na engleskom)

    Vladimir AJZENHAMER, Kako „čitati” savremene američko-turske odnose: analitički osvrt na akademsku i stručnu literaturu

    Željko BJELAJAC, Islamska država: između mita i stvarnosti

    Mihajlo VUČIĆ Procena uticaja na životnu sredinu u praksi Međunarodnog suda pravde

    Marko NOVAKOVIĆ Upotreba geografskih karata kao dokaza u praksi Međunarodnog suda pravde

    Dejan TADIĆ, Primena koncepta meke moći u ruskoj spoljnoj politici u 21. veku

    INSTITUT ZA MEĐUNARODNU POLITIKU I PRIVREDU INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL POLITICS AND ECONOMICS

  • ISSN 0025-8555 UDK 327

    MP, 68, (2016), br. 1, str. 1–144

    Izdavač Institut za međunarodnu politiku i privredu

    Beograd, Makedonska 25

    Za izdavača Prof. dr Branislav ĐORĐEVIĆ

    direktor

    Glavni i odgovorni urednik Prof. dr Branislav ĐORĐEVIĆ

    Zamenik urednika Dr Srđan KORAĆ

    Sekretar Dr Mihajlo VUČIĆ

    IZDAVAČKI SAVET

    Prof. dr Predrag BJELIĆ, Univerzitet u Beogradu, Ekonomski fakultet, Beograd Prof. dr Dražen DERADO, Univerzitet u Splitu, Ekonomski fakultet, Split Dr Robert HEJDEN, Centar za ruske i istočnoevropske studije, Pitsburg

    Prof. dr Zoran JEFTIĆ, Univerzitet u Beogradu, Fakultet bezbednosti, Beograd Prof. dr Irena KIKERKOVA, Univerzitet Sv. Ćirilo i Metodije, Ekonomski fakultet, Skoplje

    Dr Sandro KNEZOVIĆ, Institut za međunarodne odnose, Zagreb Prof. dr Jelena KOZOMARA, Univerzitet u Beogradu, Ekonomski fakultet, Beograd

    Dr Natalia VLADIMIROVNA KULIKOVA, Ruska akademija nauka, Ekonomski institut, Moskva Dr Aleksandar LUKIN, Moskovski državni institut za međunarodne odnose, Moskva

    Prof. dr Dragana MITROVIĆ, Univerzitet u Beogradu, Fakultet političkih nauka, Beograd Prof. dr Jasmina OSMANKOVIĆ, Univerzitet u Sarajevu, Fakultet za ekonomiju i biznis, Sarajevo

    Dr Miroslav ANTEVSKI, Institut za međunarodnu politiku i privredu, Beograd Prof. dr Gordana ILIĆ POPOV, Univerzitet u Beogradu, Pravni fakultet, Beograd

    Dr Čaran VODVA, Centar za istraživanje politike, Nju Delhi

    MEÐUNARODNI PROBLEMI

    INTERNATIONAL PROBLEMS

  • UREĐIVAČKI ODBOR

    Dr Vladimir BILANDŽIĆ, Misija OEBS u Srbiji, Beograd Dr Dragan ĐUKANOVIĆ, Institut za međunarodnu politiku i privredu, Beograd

    Dr Miša ĐURKOVIĆ, Institut za evropske studije, Beograd Prof. dr Demetrius ANDREAS FLOUDAS, Hjuz Hol koledž, Kembridž Mr Dejan GAJIĆ, Institut za međunarodnu politiku i privredu, Beograd

    Prof. dr Slobodan MILAČIĆ, Univerzitet za pravo, političke studije i ekonomiju, Bordo MA Petar PETKOVIĆ, Institut za međunarodnu politiku i privredu, Beograd MA Stevan RAPAJIĆ, Institut za međunarodnu politiku i privredu, Beograd

    Prof. dr Edita STOJIĆ-KARANOVIĆ, Institut za međunarodnu politiku i privredu, Beograd Prof. dr Biljana VANKOVSKA, Filozofski fakultet, Institut za odbranu, Skoplje

    Kompjuterska obrada Sanja BALOVIĆ

    Lektorka za srpski jezik Maja JOVANOVIĆ

    Lektorka za engleski jezik Maja NIKOLIĆ

    Štampa „Mala knjiga +”, Novi Sad

    Tiraž: 300 primeraka

    Pretplata Zahteve za pretplatu za Srbiju slati na adresu:

    Međunarodni problemi, Makedonska 25, 11000 Beograd, Poštanski fah 413, Uplata na račun 205-142866-36,

    Komercijalna banka Beograd, Makedonska 32

    Zahteve za pretplatu za inostranstvo slati na adresu: BiFS doo, Books and periodicals, Supilova 10, 11000 Beograd, Srbija

    Tel/fax +381 11 20 84 229, E-mail: [email protected]

    U izdavanju časopisa učestvuje: Ministarstvo prosvete, nauke i tehnološkog razvoja Republike Srbije

  • SADRŽAJ

    RASPRAVE I ČLANCI

    Slobodan JANKOVIĆ, Pravci turske spoljne politike: šta je ostalo od strategije za 2023. godinu? (na engleskom) ............................ 7

    Vladimir AJZENHAMER, Kako „čitati” savremene američko-turske odnose: analitički osvrt na akademsku i stručnu literaturu ............................................................................................. 24

    Željko BJELAJAC, Islamska država: između mita i stvarnosti ....................... 54

    Mihajlo VUČIĆ, Procena uticaja na životnu sredinu u praksi Međunarodnog suda pravde ............................................................... 72

    Marko NOVAKOVIĆ, Upotreba geografskih karata kao dokaza u praksi Međunarodnog suda pravde ................................................................ 95

    Dejan TADIĆ, Primena koncepta meke moći u ruskoj spoljnoj politici u 21. veku ................................................................... 112

    PRIKAZI KNJIGA .................................................................................................. 133

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    MEÐUNARODNI PROBLEMI

    GODINA LXVIII BEOGRAD BROJ 1/2016

    ČASOPIS INSTITUTA ZA MEÐUNARODNU POLITIKU I PRIVREDU

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    INTERNATIONAL PROBLEMS A JOURNAL PUBLISHED BY THE INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL

    POLITICS AND ECONOMICS

    VOL. LXVIII BELGRADE No. 1/2016

    CONTENTS

    ARTICLES

    Slobodan JANKOVIĆ, Vectors of turkish foreign policy: what remains of the strategy for 2023? (in english) .......................................... 7

    Vladimir AJZENHAMER, How to read U.S.-Turkish relations: An analysis of scholar literature ......................................................................... 24

    Željko BJELAJAC, Islamic state: between myth and reality ............................. 54

    Mihajlo VUČIĆ, Environmental impact assessment in the practice of International court of justice ................................................... 72

    Marko NOVAKOVIĆ, Geographic maps as evidence in practice of the International court of justice .................................................. 95

    Dejan TADIĆ, The concept of soft power in russian foreign policy in the twenty-first century .................................................................................. 112

    REVIEWS ................................................................................................ 133

  • Slobodan JANKOVIĆ1 UDK:339.9(560) Biblid: 0025-8555, 68(2016)

    Vol. LXVIII, br. 1, str. 7–23 Originalan naučni rad

    januar 2016. DOI:10.2298/MEDJP1601007J

    VECTORS OF TURKISH FOREIGN POLICY: WHAT REMAINS OF THE STRATEGY FOR 2023?

    ABSTRACT

    The article examines the probability of achieving the self-imposed criteria for Turkey to become a macro-regional power by 2023. The author analyses components of variables in Davutoğluʼs equation of power and the results of the “zero problems with neighbours” policy as an essential prerequisite for Turkey becoming one of the poles of power at the global level. Presenting the state of progress in military industries, in the development of technological infrastructure and in the economy, the author assesses the limited progress and failure to materialise the country’s expected goals. After years of progress in various fields, the leading AKP party is now troubled by conflicts inside and outside the country. The author concludes that Turkey will not be able to realise its 2023 strategy due to combination of failures in internal, foreign and economic policies. Key words: Turkey, AKP, Turkish vision 2023, economy, Kurds.

    Turkish cities under curfew in August and in September 2015, with the parallelburning and attacks on offices across the country of the pro-Kurdish liberalHDP party-are these signs of an end to the previous political, economic and cultural growth of this country? Or those are Cizre and the Sur district of Diyarbakir, with heavy fighting and death tolls in hundreds on both sides in less than two

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    RASPRAVE I ČLANCI

    1 The author is Research Fellow at the Institute of International Politics and Economics, Belgrade. E- mail: [email protected] This paper was created within the project “Serbia in contemporary international relations: Strategic directions of development and firming the position of Serbia in international integrative processes – foreign affairs, international economic, legal and security aspects”, Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Serbia, No. 179029 (2011–2015).

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    JANKOVIĆ S., Vectors of turkish foreign policy: what remains of the strategy for 2023? MP 1, 2016 (str. 7–23)

    months? Maybe it is only a sad, but temporary episode, a challenge in the period of regaining strength for a new rise of Turkey on the basis of its historical and geographical depth? Is Turkish downing of the Russian military jet and the resulting economic war with Russia a policy of the new regional assertive power?

    In 2001 the author of the new Turkish strategy in foreign affairs, Prof. Ahmet Davutoğlu, published his analysis of Turkish and Ottoman history, looking at the situation in the world and in international relations and security in particular. He assessed that there were historical and geographical depths that characterized Turkey and were the structural and permanent bases of its power. In reaching this assessment, Davutoğlu relied on the classical geopolitical thought of Karl Haushofer, Nicholas Spykman, Halford Mackinder and other representatives of classical geopolitics. He also borrowed some understandings of in

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