Master in Urban Studies and Territorial Management

Master in Environmental Engineering Strategic Environmental Assessment

2015-2016

Pathways for sustainability

Prof. Doutora Maria do Rosário Partidário

Decision problem Object of assessment Problem framework Governance framework Strategic Reference framework Assessment framework - Critical decision factors,

assessment criteria, indicators

Follow-up: monitoring, control, evaluation

Stage 1 Stage 2

Context and strategic focus Pathways for sustainability and Guidelines

Engagement, process links Continuous Stage

Trend analysis Strategic options Assessment of opportunities and risks Guidelines

What  are  major  trends?  

•  in  the  web  of  inter-­‐related  natural  and  socio-­‐ecological  systems,  social  and  economic  issues  and  governance  issues  

 

 

 

How  to  start?  

•  decision  problem  •  strategic  objec:ves  •  vision  •  object  of  assessment    

 

 

   

 

What  do  we  need  to  know?  

•  problem  framework  •  governance  framework  •  strategic  reference  

framework  •  :ming  –  process  links  

   

How  to  get  focused?  

•  priority  se=ng  •  CDF  assessment  framework    

 

 

How  to  communicate  and  engage?  

•  different  types  of  stakeholders  •  appropriate  techniques  •  stakeholders  engagement  

 

 

   

What  are  the  op8ons?  

•  strategic  pathways  •  assessment  of  opportuni:es  

and  risks  

How  to  deal  with  uncertainty?  

•  dialogues  •  guidelines  •  follow-­‐up  

 

How  to  follow-­‐up?  

•  programme  •  monitoring  and  

evalua:on  instruments    

Road-map, 2012 Guide

Partidário, 2012

Trend Analysis

Trend Analysis

•  The collection of facts, over a period of time, to spot a pattern, or trend, in relation to a given theme / situation.

•  Trend analysis need to consider the driving forces that may eventually change current trends.

•  In trend analysis we observe patterns of change and relate to driving forces.

Partidário, 2012

Baseline and Trend Analysis

•  Describe the existing situation

•  Dynamic analysis: Drivers and trends provide us the context of where we are, and will help us to understand where we might move to.

6

Baseline Studies Trend Analysis

Dynamic Analysis Variation of the amount of urban waste, per capita, per final destination in Tomar Municipality and Médio Tejo Region (Landfill / Recycling)

Source: INE

Synthesise •  SWOT

–  Highlights key internal issues (strength and weaknesses) and the key external issues (opportunities and threats) that should be considered in the planning or in the assessment process

•  Stand-out critical trends: Those that MUST be read

Data, Information and Knowledge

Data, Information, Knowledge •  Data: raw observations and measurements

•  Information: data collected from various sources, analyzed in context and integrated based on relationships across areas

•  Knowledge: a mix of contextual information, expert opinion, skills and experience.

Data, Information, Knowledge

6/11/13 MIAmb / MUOT - SEA - Trend Analysis

11

Data Information Knowledge

Data, Information, Knowledge Building’s distribution in Tomar

•  Dispersion with consequent fragmentation of natural areas, consequence of settlement and construction rules in rural areas in 1994

•  Main settlements are located near the city: Rural settlements do not provide jobs and services ?

 

Source: Municipal Plan’s studies

Qualitative & Quantitative Indicators

INDICATOR: municipal costs variation in municipal cultural activities / variação das despesas culturais municipais em atividades culturais

Source: INE

INDICATOR: Variation of resident population

Source: Master Plan studies

INDICATOR: Public participation in cultural activities

Source: INE,  Anuário  EstaHs:co  -­‐  Norte  2003,  2006,  2008

Indicadores

culturais  

Cinema   Museus   Despesa da cultura no total

de despesas (%)  

Taxa de ocupação (%)  

Espectadores por habitante (N.º)  

Visitantes por museu (N.º)  

2003  200

6  200

8  200

3  200

6  2008   2003   2006   2008   2003   2006  

2008  

Portugal   14,7   14,5   12,5   1,8   1,5   1,5  34

315  35 447  

36 286  

11,6   11,2   10,8  

Continente   14,7   14,6   12,6   1,8   1,6   1,5  

36 412  

36 909   36

982  11,8   11,3   10,9  

Norte   15,7   15,4   13,9   1,6   1,3   1,3  25

770  28 459  

34 360  

13,7   12,3   12,0  

Cávado   13,5   11,7   11,5   2,0   1,4   1,5  22

147  19 453  

15 790  

31,2   16,6   10,7  

Barcelos   21,9   x   x   …   x   x  

34 657  

24 974   …   19,6   13,5   9,2  

INDICATOR: Education equipment occupancy by type of equipment

Source: Carta Educativa de Tomar, 2008

Equipamento de Ensino  

Situação de Ocupação a nível concelhio   Situações particulares  

Equipamento pré-escolar  

Não há problemas de excesso de procura  

Carência na cidade de Tomar  

Ensino Básico 1 1º Ciclo  

Garantida a cobertura da procura nas freguesias rurais - Excesso de o fe r t a nas freguesias rurais, carência na cidade de Tomar  

A l g u n s e q u i p a m e n t o s sobrelotados na cidade de T o m a r ( t o d o s o s estabelecimentos funcionam em regime duplo)  

Ensino Básico 2,3

2º e 3º Ciclos  

Capacidade suficiente.   Todos situados em Tomar.  

Ensino Secundário  

Instalações adequadas à procura  

Alguma sobrecarga devido à incapacidade dos EB2,3 sem justificar alarme  

INDICATOR: Air quality index in Lisbon

Source: Agência Portuguesa do Ambiente (APA), www.qualar.org

Quantitative & Qualitative

Primary energy consumption by sector in 2008 in Lisbon Source: Estratégia Energético-Ambiental para Lisboa - Lisboa e-nova

Evolution of surface water quality in Estação da Albufeira de Castelo de Bode Source: SNIRH

Quantitative & Qualitative Actions in the energy management field in Lisbon •  “To take action against the increasing trends of energy

consumption, the municipality of Lisbon has been developing several measures: -  Implementation of the Environmental-Energetic Strategy -  Implementation of the first charging points for electric vehicles (plug-in) -  Presentation of the Mobility Plan of the Campo Grande building -  Presentation of the building Energy Certificate of Campo Grande and the

specifications that define the optimization of energy performance -  Begining of the DISPLAY Project in municipal buildings”

-  (etc.)

Source: SoE Report

Quantitative & Qualitative Occupied area by forest production and construction in Serra da Carregueira

Source: Municipality (CMS)

The need for Context

Context Criminality Rate Variation: Lisbon

Criminality Rate Variation: Lisbon and Lisbon Metropolitan Area

Source: INE

INDICATOR: Water consumption variation per inhabitant

Source: INE

 

Context Vulnerability to seismic risk in Serra da Carregueira “Sintra municipality has characteristics which fall in Zone A of higher seismicity, thus presenting a high vulnerability to seismic risk”

Source: Urbanization Plan’s Complementary studies (CMS)

On the other hand....

Source: ANPC

Context Variation of population density in Vila Franca de Xira Municipality “The municipality of Vila Franca de Xira has had an increase of 16% in population density in the 1990’s”

Variation of population density in Vila Franca de Xira Municipality, by Freguesia

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 7 000

Cachoeiras

Vila Franca de Xira

Calhandriz

S. João dos Montes

Castanheira do Ribatejo

Vialonga

Sobralinho

Alverca do Ribatejo

Forte da Casa

Alhandra

Póvoa de Sta. Iria

(hab / km2)1991 2001

Source: INE

Dealing with Excess Data

What is Relevant ? Public participation and public spending in cultural activities Source: INE,  Anuário  EstaHs:co  -­‐  Norte  2003,  2006,  2008

Cultural Indicators  

Cinema   Museums   Cultural spending in total

budget (%)  Occupancy Rate (%)  Spectators per resident (N.º)  

Visitors per museum (N.º)  

2003   2006   2008   2003   2006   2008   2003   2006   2008   2003   2006   2008  

Portugal   14,7   14,5   12,5   1,8   1,5   1,5   34 315   35 447   36 286   11,6   11,2   10,8  

Continent   14,7   14,6   12,6   1,8   1,6   1,5   36 412   36 909   36 982   11,8   11,3   10,9   North Region   15,7   15,4   13,9   1,6   1,3   1,3   25 770   28 459   34 360   13,7   12,3   12,0  

Cávado Sub-Reg.   13,5   11,7   11,5   2,0   1,4   1,5   22 147   19 453   15 790   31,2   16,6   10,7  

Barcelos Municip.   21,9   x   x   …   x   x   34 657   24 974   …   19,6   13,5   9,2  

Is it useful ? Variation of public participation and public spending in cultural activities (2003 -2008) Source: INE,  Anuário  EstaHs:co  -­‐  Norte  2003,  2008

Cultural Indicators  

Cinema   Museums   Var. Cultural

spending in total

budget (%)  

Var. Occupancy Rate 2003-2008

(%)  

Var. Spectators per resident 2003-2008

(%)  

Var. Visitors per museum

2003-2008 (%)  

Portugal   -15% -17% 6% -7%

Port. Mainland   -14% -17% 2% -8%

North Region   -11% -19% 33% -12%

Cávado Sub-Reg.   -15% -25% -29% -66%

Barcelos Municip.   ? ? ? -53%

Make it clear Variation of public participation and public spending in cultural activities (2003 -2008) Source: INE,  Anuário  EstaHs:co  -­‐  Norte  2003,  2006,  2008

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

2003 2006 2008

Variation of average nº of visitors per museum

Portugal

Port. Mainland

North Region

Cávado Sub-Reg.

Barcelos Municip.

Integrating data

Integration Relationship between land use, traditional settlement and urban perimeters of the existing Masterplan

Source: Original data: Masterplan’s Studies Final Map: SEA’s Report

Possible Sources and Key Words

Sources (examples) •  Plan’s studies: Recognized source. No use in

duplicating the effort •  INE •  Agenda 21, SoE Reports •  Local studies from recognized source (sectoral

studies, etc) •  Agência Portuguesa do Ambiente (APA),

www.qualar.org •  Sistema Nacional de Informação de Recursos

Hídricos (SNIRH) http://snirh.pt •  ...

Key Words •  Dynamic: expose the evolution of critical issues

(CDF) and probable path if nothing is done •  Context: A trend has to be analysed in it’s local/

regional/national context to show relevance •  Integration: cross-interpretation of data builds

information and knowledge ! •  Objective: Show what’s critical to understand the

system, not everything you know about it

What  are  major  trends?  

•  in  the  web  of  inter-­‐related  natural  and  socio-­‐ecological  systems,  social  and  economic  issues  and  governance  issues  

 

 

 

How  to  start?  

•  decision  problem  •  strategic  objec:ves  •  vision  •  object  of  assessment    

 

 

   

 

What  do  we  need  to  know?  

•  problem  framework  •  governance  framework  •  strategic  reference  

framework  •  :ming  –  process  links  

   

How  to  get  focused?  

•  priority  se=ng  •  CDF  assessment  framework    

 

 

How  to  communicate  and  engage?  

•  different  types  of  stakeholders  •  appropriate  techniques  •  stakeholders  engagement  

 

 

   

What  are  the  op8ons?  

•  strategic  pathways  •  assessment  of  opportuni:es  

and  risks  

How  to  deal  with  uncertainty?  

•  dialogues  •  guidelines  •  follow-­‐up  

 

How  to  follow-­‐up?  

•  programme  •  monitoring  and  

evalua:on  instruments    

Partidário, 2012

Strategic options

Optional pathways to achieve the strategic objectives

Future      Visions  Objec:ves  Targets  Scenarios  

Optional pathways

Trends    Strengths,  Weaknesses  Conflicts,  Opportuni:es  

Policies and principles

"

Opportunities and Risks" ""Assess conditions for development "Indicate the direction of a trend for a specific pathway. "

""Assess benefits to the natural, social and cultural values and what this means in relation to sustainable development processes""

Are opportunities worth the risk? Move carefully

Not worth the effort Top priority

Opportunities and risks

-

Ris

ks

+

- Opportunities +

SRF

Key Principles IZCM Demonstration Programme)

Strategic priorities

CFD

Assessment criteria

Assessment of the ENGIZC

risks and opportunities

ENGIZC

Thematic Options

Naturalization

Artificialization

Socio-ecological Systems

Institutional options

Fragmented competences

Centralized competences

Articulated competences

Governance Options

Strengthening the role of the State and of public policies

Mainly private investment

Public-private cooperation

Figure 2. Strategic options for NSICZM

CFD! Assessment criteria!Ecological systems and coastal landscapes"

Ecossystem approach"Safeguard and valuation of natural and cultural heritage and biodiversity"

Coastal resource and uses"

Economy of the sea"Integrated management of coastal and marine resources"Territorial and maritime connectivity"Local communities"

Natural and technological risks"

Environmental quality, health and safety"Vulnerability to climate change"Limits of acceptable change"

Management and governance"

Integrated policy for coastal zone planning and management"Interdisciplinary knowledge, monitoring and information management"Education, training and professional capacity-building"Adaptive management"Institutional cooperation and stakeholders engagement

SEA Methodology

SEA of the National Strategy for Integrated Coastal Zone Management in Portugal, 2008 Journal of Coastal Research, ICS 2009 special issue

Maritime Spatial Plan – strategic assessment framework

Maritime Spatial Plan – strategic axes and options

Strategic Options – Room A

Geostrategy, Knowledge and

Governance (1/2)

Options assessment Risks & Opportunities

(+): opportunity (-): risk (+/-): opportunity and risk (0): no relevance

AAE do PU da Serra da Carregueira