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© OECD/IEA 2015
The start of a new energy era?
Energy sector turns green?
Paris agreement: pledges of 180+ countries account for over 90% of energy-related emissions
Energy accounts for at least 2/3 of greenhouse gas emissions
Renewables capacity additions at a record-high of 130 GW in 2014
Fossil-fuel subsidy reform, led by India & Indonesia, reduces the global subsidy bill below $500 billion in 2014
Carbon pricing covers 13% of global emissions, but China intention of trading system in 2017 will triple this share
Multiple signs of change, but are they moving the energy system in the right direction?
© OECD/IEA 2015 The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on maps included in this publication do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the IEA.
Pledges submitted
…the global coverage of climate pledges is impressive
Pledges from countries that account for 95% of global energy-related GHG emissions; their full implementation would be consistent with a temperature rise of 2.7 °C
OECD Asia Oceania
2.2 Gt
Russia and Caspian
2.0 Gt Europe
3.8 Gt
North America
6.1 Gt
South America
1.2 Gt
Africa
1.1 Gt
Middle East
2.0 Gt
1.7 Gt
Other Asia India
1.9 Gt
China
8.6 Gt
© OECD/IEA 2015
Growth in energy demand and emissions has tracked economic growth closely
but decouples over time, with emissions growth slowing to a crawl by 2030
Energy sector starts to go its own way
Growth in the global economy, primary energy demand and related CO2 emissions
75
100
125
150
175
200
1995 2000 2005 2010 2020 2025 2030
Inde
x (1
995
= 10
0)
2014
GDP Primary energy demand Energy-related CO2 emissions
GDP
Primary energy demand
Energy-related CO2 emissions
75
100
125
150
175
200
1995 2000 2005 2010 2020 2025 2030
Inde
x (1
995
= 10
0)
2014
GDP
Primary energy demand
Energy-related CO2 emissions
© OECD/IEA 2015
but – for oil & gas – the gains are offset by the move to more complex fields
Policies spur innovation and tip the balance towards low-carbon
Costs in 2040 for different energy sources/technologies, relative to 2014
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Solar PV Onshore wind
Efficient industrial heat production
Efficient lighting
Upstream oil and gas
Innovation reduces the costs of low-carbon technologies & energy efficiency,
© OECD/IEA 2015
Mtoe
-300
0
300
600
900
1 200
Demand growth in Asia – the sequel
By 2040, India’s energy demand closes in on that of the United States, even though demand per capita remains 40% below the world average
European Union
United States
Japan Latin America
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Africa China India
Change in energy demand in selected regions, 2014-2040
© OECD/IEA 2015
Energy demand
GDP
A new chapter in China’s growth story
Along with energy efficiency, structural shifts in China’s economy favouring expansion of services, mean less energy is required to generate economic growth
3 000
6 000
9 000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Ener
gy d
eman
d (M
toe)
20
40
60
GDP
(tril
lion
dolla
rs, P
PP)
Energy demand
GDP
Total primary energy demand & GDP in China Energy demand in China
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear Renewables
Energy demand
GDP
3 000
6 000
9 000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Ener
gy d
eman
d (M
toe)
20
40
60
GDP
(tril
lion
dolla
rs, P
PP)
© OECD/IEA 2015
India moving to the centre of the world energy stage
Change in demand for selected fuels, 2014-2040
New infrastructure, an expanding middle class & 600 million new electricity consumers mean a large rise in the energy required to fuel India’s development
Solar PV
0
500
1 000
1 500 (TWh)
Oil
-16
-8
0
8
16
24 (mb/d)
Coal
-1 000
-500
0
500
1 000
1 500 (Mtce)
China
India United States European Union
Africa Middle East
Japan
India
China
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
United States
Japan
European Union
India
Southeast Asia
Africa
European Union
United States
© OECD/IEA 2015
Power is leading the transformation of the energy system
Global electricity generation by source
Driven by continued policy support, renewables account for half of additional global generation, overtaking coal around 2030 to become the largest power source
3 000 12 000 15 000 TWh
Change to 2040
2014 Renewables
Coal
Gas
Nuclear
Oil
Hydro
Wind
Solar
Other renewables
Of which:
6 000 9 000
© OECD/IEA 2015
Efficiency measures on the rise, but significant potential still exists
Share of global mandatory efficiency regulation of final energy consumption
Energy efficiency policies are introduced in more countries and sectors; they continue to slow demand growth but more can be done
10%
20%
30%
40%
2005 2014 2040
Industry Steam boilers Process heat Motors
Buildings Heating/Cooling Lighting/Appliances
Transport Cars Trucks Ships
© OECD/IEA 2015
A new balancing item in the oil market?
Change in production (2015-2020) of US tight oil for a range of 2020 oil prices
Tight oil has created more short-term supply flexibility, but there is no guarantee that the adjustment mechanism in oil markets will be smooth
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
$40/bbl $50/bbl $60/bbl $70/bbl $80/bbl $90/bbl $100/bbl
mb/d
© OECD/IEA 2015
A 2 °C pathway is still some further efforts away
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Gt
Baseline
450 Scenario
17.9 Gt
A peak in emissions by around 2020 is possible using existing policies & technologies; technology innovation and RD&D will be key to achieving the longer-term goal.
Energy efficiency
Fuel & technology switching in end-uses
Renewables
Nuclear
CCS
Other
© OECD/IEA 2015
Conclusions
The energy transition is underway, but needs continued strong signal from governments to attract necessary investment
Existing technologies are enough to enable a peak in energy-related emissions, but innovation is needed for scenarios compatible with 2 C
Models give essential insights on key technologies needed for the transition, and costs associated with the lack of one of them
Models also help understanding the speed of transition linked to infrastructures and economic development
With looming energy security and environmental challenges, international cooperation on energy has never been more vital