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KIC InnoEnergy – Thematic Field Renewable Energy - Strategy and Roadmap v2 2014-2019 Page 1 of 56
KIC InnoEnergy – Thematic Field Renewable Energy - Strategy and Roadmap v2 2014-2019
Page 2 of 56
Table of Content
1. Market Challenges and Business Drivers ............................................................................................... 3
2. Technologies and solutions to address those challenges .................................................................... 20
3. Roadmap: Overview ............................................................................................................................. 31
4. Roadmap: Details per topic selected ................................................................................................... 35
ANNEX List of participants in the WG ..................................................................................................... 56
KIC InnoEnergy – Thematic Field Renewable Energy - Strategy and Roadmap v2 2014-2019
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1. Market Challenges and Business Drivers
The priorities of renewable energies technologies have been defined in the four sectors where its impact
is potentially the most important, in terms of lowering energy costs, market volume, CO2 emission
savings and grid integration in the period 2015-2019: wind energy, solar photovoltaic, Solar Thermal
Electricity (STE) and ocean energies.
WIND ENERGY
Wind energy has become one of the renewable energy sources with the highest impact on the energy
supply system. Its technological evolution is being characterized by patterns, which also apply to other so
called renewable energy sources such as solar energy. Lessons were learned in up scaling the technology
in terms of the capacity of wind energy plants, growth of the industry, a worldwide market and how to
deal with regulatory and environmental aspects. Nowadays, onshore wind technology is well proven and
economically competitive with respect to conventional energy technologies at favourable sites in terms
of wind resource and grid connection possibilities. For offshore wind energy systems, the situation is
different. Typically the cost of electricity generated by offshore wind farms, has to be reduced by at least
40% before it can compete with present electricity cost of conventional sources. There are ample
options to reduce the costs by technical innovations, learning by doing, improved planning procedures
and reduced financing cost by decreasing or mitigation of risks. However, the huge potential of the
offshore wind resource, which is locally available in many European countries, and the possibility of up
scaling wind farms make this technology very attractive.
Energy from renewable sources was estimated to have a contribution of 14.1 % of EU final energy
consumption in 2012, with the medium term objective target being 20 % by 2020 and the long-term
target of 27%. Wind energy will be key in complying with these objectives, not only because the resource
is available all over Europe, but also because its associated levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) will be very
competitive compared to other options. If the cost continues to reduce as in the past, it is allowed to
extrapolate the present market development as shown in Figure 1, into the future. Therefore, the main
challenge for wind energy is a cost reduction in order to become really competitive with respect to other
energy sources on one hand; on the other hand, the value of wind energy as a clean and inexhaustible
and well integrated energy source needs to be increased, which is only possible, if the electricity market
is designed in such a way that prices reflect the full value of electricity. If conventional energy is getting
cheaper, the challenge becomes greater and when the cost of conventional energy become more
expensive the transition to a sustainable energy system becomes easier.
KIC InnoEnergy – Thematic Field Renewable Energy - Strategy and Roadmap v2 2014-2019
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Figure 1 Accumulated and yearly added wind power in the world
However, we have also seen that the growth of wind energy is being threatened by a number of barriers,
which can be translated into challenges for the entire energy sector to overcome.
Hurdles to be overcome or opportunities to be exploited in order to become successful in the wind
energy technology market depend on a company’s position in the wind energy supply chain. A
component manufacturer encounters different challenges than a wind turbine supplier does. A wind
farm designer/future owner’s scope of work depends on whether he is also responsible for grid
connection or not. For instance, if the wind farm developer is responsible for both, he will be more
sensitive to maximize the number of annual equivalent full load hours realising the wind farm and the
grid connection to the national grid, than when the grid connection is just under TSO’s responsibility. The
more energy is produced per unit of installed power (MW), the lower the relative cost of the electrical
components, including cables as the cost of these components are approximately proportional to rated
power.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
0
9,000
18,000
27,000
36,000
45,000
54,000
1983 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013
Cu
mu
lati
ve M
W
MW
per
year
Year
Installed Wind Power in the World- Annual and Cumulative -
Installed MW in year Accu. MW
Source: BTM Consult - A Part of Navigant - March 2014
KIC InnoEnergy – Thematic Field Renewable Energy - Strategy and Roadmap v2 2014-2019
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Based on the concise representation of the wind energy supply chain, Figure 2, the main market
challenges will be described.
Figure 2 Schematic overlook on the wind energy supply chain over life time
Project design and development
Apart from the operational period of a wind energy farm, the project development phase is the longest
phase of the supply chain: it is very costly and contains most risks.
Site selection is a critical factor both for onshore and offshore applications. In the case of offshore sites,
the wind resource, water depth, wave heights, seabed morphology, soil conditions and ocean currents,
but also grid connection cost (distance to sub stations) and possible impacts on the natural environment
are important parameters. For onshore sites, the accessibility for trucks and cranes is increasingly more
important along with the growth of wind turbine dimensions and its components. In particular, the
terrain imposes more extreme demands in the search for new sites on land on accessibility as more and
more suitable sites on land are being used up.
KIC InnoEnergy – Thematic Field Renewable Energy - Strategy and Roadmap v2 2014-2019
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An efficient methodology and experience with local conditions and regulations determines the later
success of a project to a large extent. Possession of a development site with all permits (construction,
EIA (Environmental Impact Assessment), Social impact assessment, grid connection) is to be considered
as a very valuable asset by itself.
The next important topic is the wind farm design, which should include the following elements: layout of
the wind turbine locations (patters and distances), external dimensions of wind turbines and relative
power rating of wind turbines (W/m2 swept rotor area). Furthermore a PPC (Power Purchase Contract)
or an electricity sales strategy forms the basis for the financing scheme of the project and negotiations
for the hardware components. Having a complete understanding of the interaction between various
design parameters, the effects on energy generation cost and the price of the produced electricity is a
necessary condition to maximize the financial effectiveness of a project.
These elements are the major challenges for developing a successful business case, which is the most
critical phase of the project.
Connecting a relatively large power plant with variable power output, such as a wind farm, to the grid, is
not trivial. However the increased controllability and predictability of the power output, makes grid
integration much more convenient compared to the situations some 15 years ago. Control and electricity
conversion systems based on power electronic devices today provides possibilities to support the grid
and improve power quality. These ancillary grid services represent a value, which is being reflected in the
price of the electricity generated.
The wind is a variable energy source of which statically characteristics are well known. For high
penetration degrees of wind energy in the grid, forecasting the output of wind farms up to 24 hours
ahead and load management might be insufficient to balance energy supply and demand in the grid.
Introducing storage systems can solve this problem. Storage systems managed in coordination with wind
farms will not reduce cost of wind energy, but could increase the value, and thus price of wind
electricity. Wind electricity could become a dispatchable form of electrical energy.
Technology development and selection
Conditions used in the previous phase to construct a business case have to be used as specifications for
selecting and purchasing wind turbines, electrical equipment and civil engineering structures.
Verification of performance parameters by means of certificates and or field trials are the basis, not only
for securing quality and lifetime of equipment, but also for presenting a bankable proposal. Since the
wind and weather conditions cannot be influenced and fully simulated, field tests of prototypes and new
technologies are necessary, supplementary to design simulations, in order to decrease the risk. In
particular, selecting the size of wind turbines is critical. Up-scaling the wind turbine does not
automatically provide cheaper LCOE. When up-scaling a wind turbine, engineers have to circumvent the
“cube law”, which means that up-scaling, while keeping the concept and materials the same, leads to an
(almost proportional to size) increase of the generation cost of electricity by an individual wind turbine.
The most profitable strategy is in general applying materials with an improved strength-to-mass ratio.
Additionally, the aerodynamics and aero-elastics of the rotor change, which could be improved by
KIC InnoEnergy – Thematic Field Renewable Energy - Strategy and Roadmap v2 2014-2019
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advanced aerodynamic controls (distributed blade control) and more compliant components in the
structure. These so-called smart rotor concepts are in full development and might lead to more cost
effective large and very large wind turbines. Especially, for offshore wind energy this might lead to
significant cost reductions as the applications of very large wind turbines causes cost reductions in other
sub systems of a wind farm. As a result, the cost of foundations and O&M cost could be reduced.
Depending on the sites (offshore, onshore moderate climate, onshore extreme hot, dry and abrasive
climate and cold climate) the development of wind turbines measured in rotor diameters and installed
power levels will show different routes in the future. This can be illustrated by means of the wind turbine
product cycles from Germany. The product life time of larger turbines is longer, some, like the one of the
60 – 90 meters category might be continuing in parallel to the > 90 meters category which is a reflection
of offshore applications. See Figure 3. Note that the vertical axis indicates market shares in percentages
and not in absolute numbers.
Figure 3 Market share on yearly new installed turbine power of wind turbine rotor diameter over the years in Germany. (Source: DEWI)
From Figure 3 it can be concluded that the market share of small wind turbines (rotor diameter smaller
than approximately 16 m) is very small. This however does not imply that there is no market at all. In
situations where an electricity grid is weak or absent, small wind turbines can play an important role.
Providing electricity to remote inhabited sites might become an interesting niche market as the wind
turbine technology becomes more and more reliable and lessons learnt from larger turbines are
implemented in smaller units.
KIC InnoEnergy – Thematic Field Renewable Energy - Strategy and Roadmap v2 2014-2019
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Transport, assembly and installation and operation and maintenance
Operation and maintenance, transport, installation and in most cases turbine assembly provides local
employment, which makes wind energy very attractive for remote regions, with high unemployment
rates. Fishermen and ship industry could take advantage to use their know-how and infrastructures to
provide specialized and cost effective services to the wind farm operators and contribute to the
development of the local economy.
Transport, assembly and installation
From the cost breakdown of offshore turbines, it is evident that transport, assembly and
installation constitute a category with high cost reduction potential. Methods to realise these
cost strategies include the development and construction of dedicated offshore integrated
transport and installation vessels. The availability of sufficient vessels to realise the offshore
plans which are now being launched and realised in the UK, Germany, Denmark, Netherlands,
Belgium, France, etc. is critical. An interesting question is which methodology in the future will
become the dominant one: Installation of complete wind turbine structures on a foundation in
one operation, or installation subsystem by subsystem while these subsystems are delivered
directly from the export ports to the wind turbine locations.
The potential of offshore wind can be increased significantly by also utilizing deep waters.
Floating structures need to be used here since bottom based foundation would become too
expensive, as the substructures become too big. The technology of floating structures, including
the design tools are less immature compared to structures for shallow and medium depths.
Separate categories form the locations for large turbines on land. Dedicated systems for
transport and installations are needed for soft soil types, for areas where the physical properties
of the soil may vary considerably during the year, such as in cold climate regions. In the case in
which turbines are to be installed in remote areas where no installation facilities are available,
dedicated self-installation systems have to be (re)-invented. Access roads, local storage facilities,
workshop and personnel lodging facilities are needed.
Operation and Maintenance
The cost of wind energy is determined by the cost of investment capital and operation and
maintenance. In general onshore installations can be accessed more than 90% of the time during
maintenance and repair interventions. In those cases the time of outages and thus the loss of
energy output can be minimized by fast repair and inspection actions. The number of those
actions and thus the cost of O&M can be decreased by increasing the reliability level of turbines.
For remote locations, such as offshore, desert and cold climate sites, the situation is basically
different. Here accessibility can be very low and the cost of lost energy output can be dominant
compared to the proper cost of O&M interventions. Specific access technologies are being
developed in order to keep O&M cost at bay, but also most importantly is to bring up the
reliability parallel to specific O&M technologies. Large cost reductions are expected from a
KIC InnoEnergy – Thematic Field Renewable Energy - Strategy and Roadmap v2 2014-2019
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transition from corrective and preventive maintenance strategies towards condition based
strategies. Although relatively many efforts have been undertaken to research into and develop
condition-based strategies, there are considerable room for improvement. In particular, the
translation of measured data from condition monitoring systems in lifetime consumption of
components poses a challenge.
Advances in O&M technology also provides essential data to design O&M cost prediction and
O&M planning tools. The combination of forecast of weather conditions for onshore and also sea
states for offshore, failure statistics of components, condition monitoring, exchange of failure
data and failure modes will result in tools to reduce O&M cost. Forecasting is also a major topic
to provide services for power systems and electrical grids.
Evaluating energy performance of operating wind and solar systems, depending on stochastically
varying external conditions (wind speed and respectively solar irradiation), is a complex process.
Improvements are still possible. Intelligent performance monitoring and evaluation systems will
provide opportunities for reduction of cost of energy in particular by detecting loss of energy
output caused by undetected system failure.
End-of-life solutions, repowering and lifetime extension
Solutions for removing wind turbine systems after their lifetime receive relatively little attention within
the present day R&D spectrum. Probably the reason is that the cost associated with this phase are being
realised at the very end of a project’s lifetime or so after 20 years. How to deal with this issue? Some
governments are considering funds for end-of-life processes to be created in the beginning of a project.
In such a way end-of-life cost become relevant during the design phase. About 20 years ago wind energy
became really professional and the installation of the first big commercial wind farms started. According
to international standards the design lifetime of wind turbines is 20 years, which means that we are now
entering in the time in which many first generation wind turbines reach the end of their design life time
and they will be massively decommissioned in the next years. Thus this issue can now be considered as a
challenge for the next future wind energy development.
Some topics to be addressed include:
1. design for separating different materials at low cost,
2. straightforward recycling of materials,
3. recycling in such a way that original material characteristic are maintained or restored.
4. re-use of main components, such as foundations and towers, after the remaining life time has
been established.
KIC InnoEnergy – Thematic Field Renewable Energy - Strategy and Roadmap v2 2014-2019
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Lifetime cost of Energy for a typical 2013 offshore wind farm
In the previous paragraph the main components of the value chain were described and critical topics were highlighted. These life cycle components
all contribute to either capital expenditures (CAPEX) or to the recurring expenditures for operation and maintenance (OPEX). In Figure 4 and Figure
5, the results of a detailed cost analysis for onshore wind energy is shown, including all cost over the entire lifetime of a wind energy system (LCOE).
As can be concluded from this figure, CAPEX consists of 66% of the LCOE, OPEX 33% and decommissioning (end-of-life solutions) 1%.
Figure 4 Breakdown of LCOE for a typical offshore wind farm, construcuted in 2013 (source, BVG Associates 2014)
Figure 5 Break down of LCOE for a typical onshore wind farm, constructued in 2013 (source KIC InnoEnergy 2014)
KIC InnoEnergy – Thematic Field Renewable Energy - Strategy and Roadmap v2 2014-2019
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SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC
The photovoltaic sector has experienced a breath-taking growth over the last decade.
According to Figure 6 the rapid technological development and the impressive market growth have
contributed to a decrease in the price of PV systems between 50 to 80%, opening the door for further
growth of the PV sector without the support of the incentive schemes necessary in the past, since the
costs of electricity generated with PV systems are now below residential electricity retail prices in major
parts of the South of Europe.
Figure 6 PV module price experience curve (source: Navigant Consulting)
Nevertheless, the Photovoltaic sector is in a period of transition.
This transition from incentive-driven to self-sustained markets is an indicator of the PV sector rapidly
becoming mature. In some European countries like Germany and Italy, PV already provides more than
5% of the annual electricity demand, levels originally anticipated to achieve only in or after 2020. In view
of this impressive progress, the European vision in this domain and its implementation has resulted in
major success.
According to Figure 7 the Photovoltaic market reached the figure of 139 GW in 2013.
KIC InnoEnergy – Thematic Field Renewable Energy - Strategy and Roadmap v2 2014-2019
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Figure 7 Solar PV total capacity, 2004-2013
Germany with 35 GW of cumulative installed capacity and Italy with more than 18 GW became the two
biggest markets worldwide.
Europe’s role as the unquestioned leader in the PV market has come to an end. While Europe accounted
for 74% of the world’s new PV installations in 2011, and even around 55% the year after, the region only
represented 29% of the world’s new PV installations in 2013. That said, various markets in Europe still
have strong and almost untapped potential for significant PV growth in the coming years.
As shown in Figure 8 for the third year in a row, PV in 2013 was amongst the two most installed sources
of electricity in the European Union. While wind energy exceeded PV in 2013 by some hundreds of MW,
these two sources of electricity are the clear leaders of new generation sources of installations. PV now
covers 3% of the electricity demand and 6% of the peak electricity demand in Europe. As the share of PV
in the electricity mix increases, grid and market integration challenges are becoming more and more
important for the future development of PV.
KIC InnoEnergy – Thematic Field Renewable Energy - Strategy and Roadmap v2 2014-2019
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Figure 8 Installed power generating capacity per year in MW and renewable energy share (source EWEA)
This immediately raises a number of new questions:
• What is next and what role would Europe want to play in photovoltaic technology?
• What drives further PV R&D and what are the opportunities for the development of new
industrial activity and issue in Europe?
The answers to these questions are strongly linked to the scenarios for large-scale penetration of PV and
need the establishment of a renewed PV Energy Roadmap considering the changing PV landscape. This
new roadmap will be focused, not only in cost reduction but also on maximizing the value of PV as
electricity source.
To fully exploit the modularity of PV-systems and to avoid, postpone or reduce the high costs associated
with the extension of transmission grids in case of alternative scenarios where PV would be primarily
placed in large-scale PV power plants in Southern European and neighbouring regions with high
insolation levels. A direct consequence of the advocated approach is the challenge to integrate PV-
systems in a seamless way with:
• The environment (energy-efficient buildings, Smart Cities, infrastructure)
• The electricity grid
As available space in such environments is limited, it goes without saying that highly efficient
technologies are necessary, and in order to realise such value-optimized solutions, tight collaboration
with the building and construction sectors, the Smart Grid community, the storage sector, and others will
be required.
KIC InnoEnergy – Thematic Field Renewable Energy - Strategy and Roadmap v2 2014-2019
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The described solution leads to a real paradigm shift. Instead of a logic based on a “one size fits all” view
leading to mass-scale production of standard commodity products, the module manufacturing industry
has to provide differentiated products for different regional markets as well as for different applications.
Therefore, the industry has to evolve to a more differentiating approach based on PV-systems which
obviously have to deliver low-cost electricity, but combined with additional functionalities as modules
being integral part of the building envelope and flexibility in the design to ensure physical integration in a
wide variety of applications at low cost and easy to install at the same time.
This additional functionality is to result in high energy yield under broadly varying environmental and
spectral conditions (both in time and space), guaranteed quality of supply over a long period of time and
ensuring maximal value generation from PV electricity in a dynamic electricity pricing environment by
delivering ancillary services to the grid. Moreover, physical integration of a wide variety of applications
at low cost requires flexibility in the design and ease of installation. Also prefab building solutions need
to be available. Last but not least, seamless integration will often require products, which besides their
technical excellence also exhibit aesthetical attractiveness.
As a consequence of the above lines of reasoning, it is clear that in the future, cell and module
technology development will be much more influenced by system requirements than in the past where
cell and module technology acted as independent drivers. To realize the described scenario PV
generation costs need to be reduced to the range of 6 to 8 €/kWh or even below in most of Europe, to
allow competition in major parts of the total electricity market. This requires turnkey system prices (i.e.
including sustainable margins and all advanced functionality mentioned in the foregoing) well below
1 €/Wp. It is considered impossible to reach this by further economies of scale & volume and
incremental technology improvements alone.
Therefore substantial increases in conversion efficiency and electricity yield as well as new high
throughput high yield and low cost manufacturing technologies are essential for success. Note that
increasing efficiency and/or energy yield is a key lever for cost reduction at all levels: cell, module and
system.
These high-performance and low cost systems will often require cell efficiency levels of 22% and higher,
as a start. Crystalline silicon based PV will certainly go part of the way, but it is likely that crossing the
25% barrier will require new concepts which are not necessarily fully disruptive but at least require
combination of the best of crystalline Si PV-technology and thin-film technologies into one module
concept for 1-sun applications. This value proposition will unite the crystalline silicon and thin-film PV-
communities in a joint endeavor and propel the European PV cell and module industry using both
optimized supply chains and coordinated innovation schemes, allowing them to rebuild their competitive
edge.
Besides cell and module manufacturing, new and innovative solutions for the seamless integration of PV
systems offer the possibility for economic growth and local wealth creation. Building markets are
dominated by local regulations and codes, but the building material market can develop to a worldwide
market with huge opportunities for the European industry. The development of PV modules as a
standard building material for roof or wall elements needs a multidisciplinary research and development
KIC InnoEnergy – Thematic Field Renewable Energy - Strategy and Roadmap v2 2014-2019
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programme involving the PV manufacturing industry and the building materials industry as well as
certification bodies.
The combination of local electricity generation with PV systems and local storage combined with local
supply and demand management makes buildings the smallest independent unit and requires a smart
grid. Europe is home to a number of leading inverter companies, which have already developed inverters
capable to perform grid management functions. Further developments to combine the different
functions of PV power generation, grid management functions, storage, and home energy management
systems will enable the next step of combining multiple units into, for instance a smart city. Such a
technology development will then lead to a widespread deployment of the smart grid technology.
Europe needs to develop such an innovative concept to take the industrial leadership, driving the
development and industrialization of this technology.
KIC InnoEnergy – Thematic Field Renewable Energy - Strategy and Roadmap v2 2014-2019
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SOLAR THERMAL ELECTRICITY
Solar-thermal electricity (STE) – also well known as Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) – describes the
heating of some kind of fluid by solar irradiation in order to generate electricity by means of a
conventional thermodynamic cycle. Commercial technologies therefore concentrate the incoming
irradiation thus multiplying the spectral flux density and guide the light to be absorbed by the fluid
(directly or indirectly). The three technologies addressed in this document are the ones that will most
likely take part in future electricity generation within the next five years – parabolic troughs, central
receivers and linear Fresnel reflectors.
STE power plants cannot yet be considered competitive with respect to other conventional power plants.
Therefore the deployment of STE power plants will nowadays depend on specific support measures of a
country’s new energy policy programs. Consequently the market development could basically only be
influenced by policy maker’s decisions.
This situation however has different implications in industrialised or developing countries. The current
trends of “being more green” can be achieved in industrialised countries with cheaper but intermittent
renewable technologies as the electrical system has enough backup capacity to cope with shortage of
the renewable resources.
This is certainly not the case in countries that need to multiply by 2 or 3 times the power installed in the
next decade with the requirement of a firm supply of electricity at any time, i.e. at the evening peak. In
these cases STE is already likely a better option than PV or wind plants plus the necessary investment in a
combined-cycle power plant (CCGT).
Responding to this need is the biggest challenge for STE technology today. This has to be approached at
the same time by reducing the cost of the technology on the supply side and convince policy makers on
the advantages – at technical and macroeconomic level – of this technology. On the demand side (not
consumers but planners and decision makers in the generation companies) the flexible dispatch profile –
decoupling capture from delivery - will contribute to position STE plants as an attractive choice in their
business models.
Again, reducing the gap to be filled up with public support measures is the key point for a quicker
deployment of this technology, as performances and reliability are not called into question.
STE plants are capable of storing thermal energy that is gained by the solar field. The possibility of
utilising this thermal energy at a later time for generating electricity increases the value of STE compared
to PV or wind power, which are only available with their primary resource (sun or wind). This property –
known as dispatchability – will contribute to the implementation of renewable energies in electric grids
in the future as it will be necessary to provide enough balance capacity to compensate fluctuations in
generation and/or demand.
Making policy makers aware of the distinct value proposition of STE technologies is essential. This will be
certainly linked more to structural aspects of the electrical system (regulation, long term planning, etc.)
rather than to the conjuncture. STE plants are “slow animals” compared with PV that can better respond
KIC InnoEnergy – Thematic Field Renewable Energy - Strategy and Roadmap v2 2014-2019
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to immediate needs.
Measuring the macroeconomic effects over the time of such support programs could be a good idea to
be monitored. Apart from the Spanish or the USA case – where the studies already exist – there are good
examples in South Africa, India, Morocco, etc., where interesting data can be obtained. This could
certainly help in the adoption of support decisions in a given country and could also help to understand
the positive impacts of this technology globally.
As it is shown in the Figure 9, the LCOE is strongly dependent on the DNI of each potential plant site.
Actually, the existence of a correlation between DNI and LCOE is recognizable. Therefore a plant with
higher irradiation is also more profitable due to higher solar gains. This also proposes emerging markets
where STE technology can enjoy a better competitiveness towards conventional power plants.
Figure 9 LOCE dependance to external factors (source, Estela Strategic Research Agenda 2020 - 2025, Dec. 2012)
KIC InnoEnergy – Thematic Field Renewable Energy - Strategy and Roadmap v2 2014-2019
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OCEAN ENERGIES
Ocean energy can be derived from several sources - waves, tidal stream, ocean currents, salinity gradient
and OTEC. Macroalgae (seaweed) for the production of bio-combustibles whilst not normally considered
as an ocean energy source may also be included here as a potential energy source. As the European
ocean energy market is predominately related to wave and tidal sources we will not consider ocean
currents, salinity gradient, OTEC or macroalgae here.
Significant progress has been made over the last 5 years in ocean energy particularly in tidal where
leading OEMs are testing full-scale prototypes and preparing to develop a number of small pilot arrays.
Wave technologies have continued to advance but still require further development and significant
investment before progressing to the commercial stage. It is still unclear which will be the winning
technologies and space for game changers still exists.
The cost of energy from wave and tidal sources is presently high compared to that of mature
technologies. However, costs can be reduced through a combination of technical improvement, installed
volume, performance improvement, reduction in O&M costs through predictive monitoring, and greater
understanding of the working environment. There is also a push for the industry to reduce costs, as most
OEMs understand this is critical. The predictability of both wave and tidal energy gives them an
advantage over other forms of renewable energy.
Europe has ~20% of the world’s tidal energy and a significant share of the world’s wave energy resources
which could provide skilled employment, significant clean, secure and sustainable energy for generations
to come. The UK's Carbon Trust estimated that the global wave and tidal energy market could be worth
up to €535 billion between 2010 and 20501 and the final IEE SI Ocean project report2 indicates a target of
100 GW of ocean energy in Europe by 2050.
Following the 2008 Communication on offshore wind energy, the 2014 Communication from the
European Commission on Blue Energy3 considers the potential of the ocean energy sector to contribute
to the objectives of the Europe 2020 Strategy as well as EU's long-term greenhouse gas emission
reduction goals. It also looks over the horizon at this promising new technology and outlines an action
plan to help unlock its potential. This is the reason for the European Commission to set up a strategy for
ocean energy on two phases, the first for 2014-16, which comprises the creation of the Ocean Energy
Forum with three axis: Technology, Finance and Administrative and Environment, and the second for
2017-2020 with a European Industrial Initiative and sector-specific guidelines for the implementation of
relevant legislation3.
1 Carbon Trust (2011), Marine Renewables Green Growth Paper
2 SI Ocean project final report: Wave and Tidal Energy Market Deployment Strategy for Europe, June 2014
3 COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND
SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS: Blue Energy - Action needed to deliver on the potential of ocean
energy in European seas and oceans by 2020 and beyond, 20 January 2014.
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The Table 1presents the SI Ocean views on SI Ocean project Summary Industry Priority and Goals taken
from the SI Ocean Wave and Tidal Energy Market deployment Strategy published last June 2014.
Table 1 Priorities and goals of the SI Ocean market Deployment Strategy
Milestone Priorities Goals
By 2020 Innovation – TRL progress
Demonstration and testing
Financial close on up to ten pilot arrays
Technology innovation: reduce costs, increase reliability, increase yields
By 2030 Continued innovation
Supply chain engagement
Acceleration cost reduction: standardization and scaling up
Commercial array installations (30MW+)
By 2050 Rapid cost reduction – volume production
Mass market roll-out
Supply up to 100 GW of clean energy
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2. Technologies and solutions to address those challenges
WIND ENERGY
In the paragraph about market challenges and business drivers, a number of technologies, tools and
methodologies were mentioned in connection with their position in the value chain. The solutions,
meeting KIC criteria (topic still under development, close to be commercialized, significant impacts on
cost reduction, environment, etc.), and analysed in the KIC wind energy project, all fit in the value chain.
In the table below the relation between selected technology and supply chain priorities is represented.
Position in Supply Chain
KIC Wind Energy Thematic
Specific KIC topic
Project design/development Wind farm design Wind farm (WF) lay-out (multi parameter) optimization
Grid and power transmission
Grid for extreme climates
Grid integration (wind energy supply spatial correlation, ancillary services, inertia
Energy storage
Long distance electricity transport
Technology development & selection
Wind turbines & Substructures
Design tools for components and systems
Improvement of existing wind turbines
New concepts/scaled prototypes/tests
Manufacturing processes
Materials
Wind farm design Overall WF control
Optimization floating wind farm
Transport, assembly, installation
Wind farm design Wind farm installation/cost optimization
Wind turbines & Substructures
Logistics & Installation
Operation and Maintenance O&M Condition monitoring
O&M optimization
(Near) free maintenance concepts
Midterm forecasting of wind & sea states for optimization
End of life solutions Wind turbines & Substructures
Materials
The appropriate technologies to address the challenges for improvements are categorized as follows:
#1: Wind turbines & Substructures
#2: Wind Farm (design)
#3: Operations and Maintenance (O&M)
#4: Power transmission and grid integration
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SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC
Updated PV Roadmap should include the necessary R&D topics and priorities able to impact on the
market, based on the above considerations, within the short-medium term.
Considering the Implementation plan of the Solar Energy Industrial Initiative as a reference document,
the Updated PV Roadmap should keep similar structure and can also be based on the three main pillars
established there. It is quite important to maintain the new document in accordance with the
Implementation Plan priorities but actualising the contents according to the new developments of the
technology.
These would be the three pillars as described in Figure 10 The three pillars of PV R&D development:
Figure 10 The three pillars of PV R&D development
Pillar A: Performance enhancement & energy cost reduction.
This pillar should address the technology developments required for both performance enhancement
and associated cost reduction but at the PV system level (this is the very new concept).
Figure 11 Sensitivity analysis for the forecasts for LCOE of small PV power plants, investment 1500 €/kW, GHI=1050 kWh/(m
2a). (Source Fraunhofer ISE)
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All different PV technologies will be analysed considering commercial cell/module technologies and
those that are under development and with potential to make a commercial contribution in the short
and medium term (five years). The main topics defined in the previous roadmap for the different PV
technologies would remain but actualising the goals and KPIs according to the new technological
developments. R&D topics for all technologies should keep similar goals aimed to significantly reduce the
costs per Watt: Sustainably reduce manufacturing costs per watt; optimisation of production yield,
increased efficiencies and production output (power/energy).
Figure 12 Historical and near future evolution of PV Cells efficiencies (source: NREL)
There will be some specific topics for the different technologies, as:
Crystalline technologies
Thin film technologies
CPV (Concentration PV) This new PV roadmap will establish two different types of priorities, depending on the higher or lower
impact of the topic on the LCoE reduction and its penetration in the market (commercialisation) within
five years.
This pillar should also consider topics at the systems and application level, namely building integrated PV
systems and Balance of Systems.
Building integration PV (BIPV) should be one of the main topics for all technologies
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For Balance of System (BoS) it is necessary to increase energy yields by reducing system losses, fault
prediction and long term reliability of systems, and of course to consider that lower BoS costs and
maintenance means lower system cost.
It is important to also include cross cutting issues such as testing, modelling and technology
demonstration, which leads to increase overall system performance/reduced losses, reduce system costs
and enhance PV system bankability.
All these topics under pillar A should directly address performance and lifetime enhancement, as well as
the reduction of manufacturing costs but as the main process for system cost reduction.
Pillar B: Quality assurance, long term reliability and sustainability.
This pillar should address the issue of quality and lifetime enhancement. It details cross technology
projects addressing quality assurance, reliability at module and system level, considering the surrounding
environment (tropical, salinity, high UV radiation,... areas), and issues of sustainability including life-cycle
assessment and recycling of components.
It is important for the contribution of these topics to increase PV competitiveness (economical and
technical), to minimize the environmental impact and use of materials, to develop recycling processes
and to develop harmonised EU quality standards and guidelines, not only for PV elements (modules,
inverters...) but for the whole PV system.
• Develop and apply system Design techniques for achieving high outdoor long-term performance
>25 years at 90% 0f the initial performance ratio, at low cost
• New low cost, long-lifetime material alternatives and module designs for longer term reliable PV
systems and reduced degradation.
• Development of design criteria facilitating low-cost efficient recycling processes and easy to
access recycling infrastructure
• Low energy processes and production control techniques and procedures, total quality
management, rapid on site quality control of modules.
• Improvement of guidelines for optimum transportation, installation, configuration, fulfilment of
safety requirements and monitoring/evaluation for enhancing the energy yield and overall
performance at the system level.
• Improve life-cycle assessment (e.g. carbon footprint) For all PV technologies and BoS under
detailed guidelines and feedback of the results to the industry
Pillar C: Electricity system integration.
This pillar should address the implementation and integration of PV technology, especially with regards
to grid connection and the integration with the built environment. Large-scale integration of PV into the
grid is one of the major issues for the PV deployment. To accommodate a high penetration of
intermittent or non-continuous energy source needs a great flexibility of the power electricity system, a
continuous control of the grid network situation and the interaction between generation and demand. In
this respect TICs and PV technologies (renewables) will go hand in hand in the future development of the
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grid networks. In other words there should be concrete answers and solutions for the main questions
appearing related to PV and smart grids:
• How much PV can the grid take?
• What happens when 25%/50%...100% of the houses have PV systems?
• How the grid has to be enforced?
• Which technical solutions are available?
• What are the costs?: PVcost = LCOEPV +/- Grid Integration costs
• What are the cost effective solutions?
The topics as variability, flexibility of supply, aggregation, quantification of solar resources and active
monitoring and control should be implemented as well as the active role of end users (now denominated
prosumers).
To enable large-scale deployment of PV, this topic’s projects should be focus on:
• Enabling high penetrations of PV whilst minimizing the impact on cost: proof of concept for
technical feasibility of very high levels of PV penetration, either in urban or isolated environment
• Integrate storage solutions in PV systems
• Increase the overall flexibility of the power system by improved PV forecasting techniques and
electricity prediction models and/or energy efficiency solutions and/or demand side
management solutions
• Overcome bottlenecks in the distribution grid
• Development of simulation and monitoring tools (early fault detection, weather forecasting,
modelling and simulation of ancillary services, etc.)
• Proof of concept for smart grid projects in combination with smart PV systems (meters and
relevant hardware/software).
• Identification of grid cost generated by high shares of PV into the system and solutions based on
a cost-benefit analysis to minimize the costs.
• For each chapter of R&D topics, the following information will be provided:
• Context: Advanced application possibilities and the contribution to increase the competitiveness
of the EU industry at global level.
• Goals:
o Sustainably reduced manufacturing/installation cost (If possible per generated kWh) o Optimization of production output (power/energy) o Optimization of production yield (for manufacturing products)
• Priority level, EU added value, level of risk, commercial application, timing and socioeconomic
aspects.
• Specific KPIs per topic, including always the expected reduction in the electricity generation cost
(€/kWh).
In this respect and in order to facilitate the evaluation of the contribution of some specific project to the
reduction of the PV electricity generation cost (the main KPI for PV), it would be necessary to develop a
tool which could easily calculate the incidence of any particular development, not only in the cost
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reduction of the product (module, inverter..) but in the energy cost. This would be the best test to
evaluate the real contribution of certain development to the PV deployment.
Summarizing, the updated photovoltaic roadmap will emphasize sustainability and energy cost reduction
facilitating high penetration of PV into the electricity network and into the built environment. In other
words: increasing the value of PV.
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SOLAR THERMAL ELECTRICITY
By utilizing STE now, a lowering of costs to a competitive level towards conventional electricity
generation can be achieved until 2025. This can be a chance for STE to prove its advantages in
dispatchability in order to meet the requirements of future electricity grids. However, the
competitiveness of STE will not only be influenced by the lowering of the energy costs but also be
influenced by the outlook on prices of conventional fuels.
As mentioned before, there are three main technologies that are interesting for the development of STE.
The Figure 13 shows the share of each of these technologies in different development stages within the
STE branch. It can easily be seen that most of STE projects – whether built, under construction or under
projecting – are based on parabolic troughs and central receivers (solar towers). The linear Fresnel
technology is another relevant technology option that is still in its development stadium. However, it
could offer significant price optimizations in future, once the technology is established. Parabolic dishes
have yet a too small impact on STE to be taken into consideration for the purposes of this document.
Figure 13 STE pipeline projects by technology (Source: SBC Energy Institute/Schlumberger on basis of IEA SolarPACES database (1st March 2013), June 2013)
In the past years the use of STE was strongly dominated by parabolic trough and central receiver
technologies. An evaluation by IRENA took record of some important projects and analysed their costs.
The Figure 14 shows the results of the estimated LCOE (in USD per kWh), and compares it with the year
each project was carried out and the size of the plant. Also proposals for sample projects for the present
situation are given to show the decrease as part of the experience curve effect.
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Figure 14 Historical data on LCOE of STE power plants (Source: IRENA, Renewable Energy Technologies: Cost Analysis Series – Concentrating Solar Power, June 2012)
However, regarding the previous figure, there are some aspects to take care of since there might be
some incompletions of data as they are available on the public domain. Furthermore, technologies may
be different as both plants with storage and those without are presented together. Same applies to the
DNI – the project sites (and the location specific irradiation) have influence on the LCOE as a higher DNI
is reciprocal to a higher energy output (see above).
In order to reach appropriate performance STE requires large amounts of land for the collection of the
solar irradiation. In most cases this land is lost for other applications such as agriculture. Therefore, the
efficiency of STE plant is not only an economic issue in order to decrease costs, but also can quickly turn
into an ethic discussion. An analysis of the momentary status of the different concepts (including their
development stage) shows that nowadays implemented technologies are still rather inefficient in the
overall conversion of solar irradiation to electricity. However, developments in more than one area
promise results with almost twice the plant efficiency compared to current commercial plants. The
Figure 15 shows the annual net solar to electricity efficiency considering different technologies and their
current development level, industrial, demonstration, field R&D, laboratory and concept).
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Figure 15 Potential of the different STE technology in terms of conversion efficiency (Source: Robert Pitz-Paal)
This section further contains appropriate technologies to overcome the challenges that have been
identified in section one.
For STE the following segments were determined:
Higher plant efficiency
Lower investment and O&M costs
Better dispatchability
Development of market in countries with specific constraints (scarce water, sand storms)
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KIC STE Segments
Specific KIC topic
Higher plant efficiency
More efficient plant monitoring and control.
Equipment for on-site checking of optical, geometrical and thermal quality of solar concentrators and receivers.
Better selective coatings for PTC and LFR receivers.
More efficient designs and better selective coatings for high temperature receivers in solar towers.
New working fluids for higher temperatures.
Software development at component level.
Software development at system level to optimize electricity production.
Lower investment and O&M costs
More cost-effective sun tracking systems.
Improved solar concentrators design.
Advanced cleaning systems for concentrator mirrors and receivers, or low soiling characteristics maintaining lifetime.
Improved durability of key components.
Better dispatchability and grid integration
Improved sensible heat storage concepts.
Tools for solar radiation forecasting and nowcasting.
Development of markets with specific constraints (scarce water, sand storms)
More efficient dry-cooling systems.
Methodology to analyse degradation and predict lifetime of key components.
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OCEAN ENERGIES
As mentioned in previous section, there are no commercial wave and tidal technologies. However there
are several technologies that have reached prototype tests at sea and, to a greater extent in the case of
tidal energy, consistent ability to produce energy for 2 or 3 years at sea.
The Figure 16 presents in a compact way the different levels of maturity and foreseen timing of
technological improvements/developments.
Figure 16 Level of maturity and time to market of technology improvements/developments.
Research
Time
An
tici
pat
ed C
ost
s o
f Fu
ll-Sc
ale
Demonstration Mature Technology
Tidal barrage
Tidal turbines
Articulated attenuator
Submerged surge plates
Cable driven point absorb.
Liner Gen. Point Absorb.
Dielectric membranes WEC
Shoreline OWC
Tidal Kites
Negative springs; Controlled submergence;
Compact arrays; Mooring’s sharing
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3. Roadmap: Overview
WIND ENERGY
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SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC
Wafer based crystalline silicon
10 - 15% decrease in production costs
Commercial efficiency between 18 & 22%
Minimum lifetime >30 years with remaining performance ratio 90%
Thin film photovoltaics
30% decrease in production costs
Commercial efficiency between 12 & 17%
Minimum lifetime >25 years with remaining performance ratio 85%
CPV
Increase of efficiency up to 30 to 35%
BIPV
Low cost flexible and building adapted PV materials
Grid integration
10 to 15% reduction on the BoS CAPEX
Quality assurance, long term reliability and sustainability
Increase of specific component lifetime (inverters)
OPEX decrease around 20%
Concentrated Photovoltaic
Silicon materials needed for crystalline silicon photovoltaic
Pro
du
cts
& S
erv
ice
s
Cost-effective processes
Module efficiency
Process and design needed for crystalline silicon photovoltaic
Module silicon PV
2014 2020 2016 2018
Building Integrated Photovoltaic
Performance enhancement and energy cost reduction
Quality assurance, long term reliability and sustainability
Electricity system integration
20
20
Ch
alle
nge
s
Target
TCO’s and antireflective coatings
Encapsulation and Modularization
Quality assurance, long term reliability and sustainability
Implementation and integration of PV technology
Components for grid integration
SOLAR PHTOVOLTAIC (PV)
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SOLAR THERMAL ELECTRICITY
Higher plant efficiency
LCOE reduction between 24,1% (PTC)
and 21,5% (LFR) is possible on midterm.
Lower investment and O&M costs
LCOE reduction between 8% (CR) and
4,4% (LFR)is possible on midterm.
Better dispatchability
LCOE reduction between 3,6% (PTC) and
1% (LFR)is possible on midterm.
Development of markets with specific constraints (scarce water, sand storms)
In order to achieve lower environmental
influences even an increase on the LCOE
of 2,3% is accepted.
Improved sensible heat storage concepts
Tools for solar radiation forecasting and nowcasting
Plant monitoring, control, and continuous on-site quality control of solar equipment
Software development at component and system level
Increasing competitiveness of STE plants and reduce land requirement
Lowering investment and O&M costs in order to reduce LCOE
Better dispatchability and grid integration allow a higher market penetration
Finding solutions for countries with specific constraints (scarce water, sand storms)
20
20
Ch
alle
nge
s P
rod
uct
s &
Se
rvic
es
Improved durability of key components & lower water consumption for cleaning mirrors
Target
Improved solar concentrators designs & more cost-effective sun tracking systems.
Improved selective coatings; more effective designs for CRs
New working fluids and/or receiver conditions for higher temperatures
2014 2020 2016 2018
Advanced dry-cooling systems
Methodology to analyse degradation and predict lifetime of key components.
SOLAR THERMAL ELECTRICITY (STE)
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OCEAN ENERGIES
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4. Roadmap: Details per topic selected
WIND ENERGY
Topic Comments (Cost or value impact evaluation later)
1. Wind turbine and substructures (Rotor, nacelle, drive train (mech. /electrical) tower, foundation or offshore substructure)
Improvement for existing turbines
Improvement of existing wind turbines to increase their energy output: Aerodynamic devices (vortex generators, spoiler…), pitch optimization, yaw misalignment corrections etc.
Fully integrated control and monitoring, smart control systems including improvements in the reliability of embedded sensors
Devices to increase the operability of wind turbines: For instance Blade de-icing systems, protection against abrasion in desert climates.
By relatively low cost modifications, annual energy yield improvements of some percent can be obtained.
New conceptual designs – scaled prototype / test benches
Improvements of upfront feasibility studies for innovative wind turbine concepts for an improved de-risking and LCOE targeting:
New conceptual designs for turbines and components (floaters for floating turbine, new foundation concept for fixed turbines, hydraulics drivetrains, blades, nacelle etc.)
Scaled-up prototypes and measurements for design tool improvements and validation for innovative concepts (new wind turbine: floating, new conversion concepts: hydraulics, superconductors etc.)
Test benches and test equipment. Methods to monitor performance improvement in the field.
Accelerated life time test benches for subsystems: design validation for pitch, yaw, bearings and new materials erosion and corrosion testing, lightning testing, etc.
The validation of design tools by tests and scaled prototype tests is key for the economic viability of the turbines and wind farm projects
About test benches: it provides operability improvements by further testing and feedback for the robustness of the designs and ensures the reliability of the OPEX model
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Design tools for wind turbine components and systems
Integrated design tools and design tool validation for a better management of safety factors and improvements in performance and design certainty.
Numerical wind tunnels (substitution of hardware tests by highly reliable and proven calculations)
Design integration, fully integrated multi-body design tools for aeroelasticity and hydrodynamic models. Deeply validated by full scale data
Full scale and integrated analysis of substructures including new hydrodynamic models
Reduced order models for control design
Fatigue tool predictions for metallic and composites components together with systematic methodologies for material coupon testing
Mastering the numerical design tools and their related uncertainties is key for robust designs of turbines and components, which should last for 20 - 25 years.
This is particularly important for O&M costs and reliability OPEX costs prediction.
Better and validated software allows to design closer to the reality with reduced uncertainty. Less uncertainty means less material and finally more cost effectiveness.
Innovative materials and manufacturing processes including new quality control systems
Industrialization, new materials, new manufacturing process and innovative quality control to improve cost and reliability of components
Integration of new materials
Industrial design and mass production of components especially blade manufacturing,
Industrial process to reduce costs and increase reliability especially for high dimensions composite parts
New automatic quality control means and FAT (Final Acceptance Test) test bench (not accelerated)
Non-destructive test methods and devices, even remotely controlled
Wind turbine components are a key element in the risk and OPEX impact. The mastering of new better designed fatigue materials and better testing can ensure a better OPEX and lower CAPEX.
Wind turbine logistics and installation
Component packaging to limit potential damage or shocks during storage or transport
New lifting/hoisting tools onshore and offshore
New installation procedures (blade by blade, complete rotor, floating turbine, etc) with larger weather windows
Protective measures and tools for turbines waiting for grid connection offshore for instance
Installation and logistic costs are a significant factor for offshore CAPEX. With increasing turbine size the item is still more important.
Since the technology is still relatively young, there is space to optimize. Labour health and safety aspects are also really substantial
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2. Wind Farm
Design of the global control of the wind farm for optimizing the AEP
Concept of (global) Wind Farm power curve tool
Short term Wind Assessment Chain
Sensor improvements (e.g. nacelle Lidar,...)
Control (e.g. yaw and pitch optimization)
Wind Farm design tools
Tool to calculate capacity factor for different wind turbine ratings (rotor sweep area and installed power).
Pervasive system for birds and bats
It is much easier and efficient to optimize the control of the wind farm prior to its construction
Optimization of Wind farm layout under multiple constraints to reduce the LCOE of the whole wind farm Several tool modules:
Power output assessment tool: Wind resource prediction tool, wake effect estimation tool, Annual Energy Production tool
Number of sub-stations and localization for offshore plants,
Cable (i.e. export and inter-array cables) layout assessment tool
Geotechnical assessment tool
Spatial planning tool
Reduction of the global cost of the wind farm by optimizing the placement of the different components,
Reducing cost of electrical components and grid integration
Optimization of floating wind farm LCOE
Floating substation design
Optimizing dynamic/floating cables for offshore wind turbine
Equipment for floating wind farms, such as e.g. ROVs
A floating wind farm is completely new and gives therefore the opportunity to reduce and optimize costs in several details and components, but also by optimizing distances and placing of necessary components
Wind farm installation cost optimization
Transport and installation equipment for on- and offshore
Equipment to access offshore wind turbines and wind farms to improve accessibility under weather constraints
Logistics: selection of the best installation technologies/ships and selection of suitable ports
Delay due to weather conditions is an important cost factor for installation.
Analysis tools for risks regarding weather and sea and the availability of the ships or other mean of transportation to reduce the risk to postpone the installation
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3. Operations and Maintenance (O&M)
Condition monitoring
Replacement of corrective and preventive maintenance strategies by condition based (CB) maintenance. For CB maintenance condition monitoring systems need to be developed which operate accurately and reliably during the life time of a wind turbine component. Parameters to be monitored such as: mechanical loads, fatigue loads accumulation, ice build-up, drive train dynamics and wear and tear of gearboxes.
Ways and methods for lifetime extension based on monitored real loads versus the design loads
Remote and smart technologies and control will allow a reduction of O&M costs by replacing the fixed schedule maintenance by a conditional maintenance.
Enhanced operation & maintenance
New capabilities for remote O&M, ROVs,…
Advanced communications systems (i.e.. Replacement of slip-ring communication by wireless systems) and optimal performance in real time (optimal yaw and pitch management)
Development of automated solutions to reduce cost and H&S risks for maintenance personal
Design of the mid-term wind and sea state Assessment Chain
Improved weather condition (wind + sea state) prediction on mid-term in order to plan for suitable time windows for O&M interventions offshore and thus reduce costs of lost energy output.
If we reduce the uncertainty in mid-term weather/sea state condition forecast, we can reduce the access costs, standby costs of equipment but also the health risk of workers.
Near-free maintenance
Developing of new products which are nearly maintenance free to minimize maintenance costs
Offshore maintenance is much more expensive than onshore maintenance due to the extreme high access time and costs. For offshore a more expensive but maintenance-free component can reduce significantly O&M costs.
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4. Power transmission and grid integration
Grid and power transmission adaptation on extreme climate
Adaptation on cold climate and icing problems in transmission
Special cooling systems for hot climate, including dust protection for dessert use
In extreme climate, transmission availability could be improved by special extreme climate protection.
It is observed that standards for power transmission systems are not well focusing on extreme climate conditions and therefore the design of the power transmission is not adequate with the consequence that wind turbines are sensitive to extreme climate conditions.
Energy storage
Wind turbines based storage (flywheel, etc.)
Wind farm level based storage (deep water pressure tanks storage, converter in gas, storage in gas pipelines….)
Region level based storage (storage in e-cars with smart grids, conversion in gas and storage in gas pipelines,...)
Hybrid energy storage systems for different time frame applications Note: Energy storage is a deeply treated in other KIC-Roadmaps
One of the mayor problems for wind and solar energy is that energy is only available when wind is blowing or the sun is shining. This is a problem for the grid operator, since the demand is independent from these conditions. Storage allows supplying energy when the market demands. This would make renewable much more attractive for the system and the need for back-up plants would be smaller. Note: Energy storage does not reduce directly LCOE. It will increase the value (and price) and will increase the penetration degree of wind energy in the grid.
Improve grid transmission, especially for long distance by new technologies, incl. offshore substations
Point to Point HVDC - Link power transmission
MultiTerminal HVDC transmission grid
Grid transmission cost optimizing tools
Optimized operational frequency on wind farm collector grid and transmission.
For offshore wind farms the energy consumer is typically fare away >100-300km from the wind farm. Transmission losses are really an issue and should and can be improved. The scenario of such long distance transmission is completely different to the current or onshore scenarios
Optimization of contribution of wind energy to the global electricity supply system, including ancillary services and inertia
Better adapting on grid code requirements (frequency control, reactive power control, LVRT,…)
Optimization tools for market regulations.
In many countries, energy prices are higher if power station (wind farm) fulfils grid requirements. Here the energy yield will not be higher, but the market price. Also this topic does not primarily reduce LCOE; it mainly allows the wind farm to sell energy at higher prices. Also wind energy contribution to the grid can be improved.
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SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC
TOPICS COMMENTS (Impact evaluation)
1- Wafer based crystalline silicon
1.1- Silicon materials needed for crystalline silicon photovoltaic Better use of materials, reusing and recycling wastes (cost reductions in consumables and materials will remain a major task). Reducing energy pay back time. Increasing performance and reducing cost but always at the PV system level. Silicon usage should be reduced to 4 g/W Price reduction for wafers (including Si Feedstock, consumables and energy) will be up to 10 % in the next ten years.
New Si Feedstock based on advanced process purification.
Reusable crucibles with lower impurity content
Lower defect (high electronic quality) silicon wafers. (Defects management)
In line process control for defect detection.
1.2- Process and design needed for crystalline silicon photovoltaic All these developments aim to significantly reduce cost per kWh generated in a sustainable way. Optimizing the production yield, increased efficiencies and production output (power/energy) These developments (higher efficiencies and higher throughput of processing tools) should represent a reduction in CAPEX for cells production lines around 10% in the ten years period.
Integration of high throughput and inline control for industrial processing equipment and quality insurance
Back contact cells structures and selective emitters and laser processing
New generation of cell heterojunction design
Advanced cell architecture for recombination losses reduction
Advanced concepts (tandem or multijunction) for high efficiencies η>25%
Bifacial cells
1.3- Module silicon PV Optimization of module performance (cell to module power ratio even higher than 1, due to Improving light management) Assure longer term and higher energy output : 30 years as minimum life time and 90% of remaining performance) New materials development to reduce PV system costs, recyclable and easily integrated in automated manufacturing processes Module efficiency in the range of 18-22% (commercial level) CAPEX for module assembly lines should be reduced by 15%.
Test for accelerated ageing - Advanced ageing simulation (avoiding PID)
Development of advanced interconnections for ultra-thin cells; advanced metallization and advanced cell concepts.
New encapsulation based on lighter and thinner material with cost and weight reduction; lower encapsulation losses and higher performance (secure higher life time >30 years)
Ant soiling and antireflective surface solutions: integrated in manufacturing process or applicable to existing modules
Back sheets– new materials having a positive impact on cost, processing time, reliability and durability
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2- Thin film photovoltaics
2.1- Cost-effective processes Advanced application possibilities Significant reduction in generation costs, through: Reducing manufacturing costs per watt Increase efficiencies: Optimization of production output (power/energy) Increase life time
Improvement of deposition and patterning concepts with higher reproducibility, and higher yield and higher efficiencies. Development of atmospheric-based printing technologies
Replacement of scarce or supposed strategic materials: Te, In, Ga, etc;
New concepts and predictive modelling tools
Life time >30 years involving cost reduction to 75% for CIGS
2.2- Module efficiency Module efficiency in the average of 12-17% for 2018 for all inorganic TF technologies Life time higher than 25 years with a performance ratio of 85% CAPEX for manufacturing lines should be reduced by 30% in the next 5 years. Module cost lower than 0.5 $/Wp.
Improvement of process integration. Uniformity/large scale deposition techniques
Increase aperture and total area efficiency (e.g by reduction of non-active interconnection zones)
Reduction of degradation mechanisms
Material, process and architecture improvements targeting efficiency increase
Experimental and modelling studies facilitating the lab to factory performance transfer
New transparent contacts
Backsheets (replacement of glass back sheet) – new materials having a positive impact on cost, processing time, reliability and durability
2.3- TCO’s and antireflective coatings Improvement and standardization of manufacturing tools for large area and high performance processes.
Development of cost-effective routes (preferably chemical/electrochemical non-vacuum) for large area TCO’s preparation. Verification in pilot plant.
Improved antireflective, antisoiling and anti-abrasive coatings increasing module efficiency, Management of TCO surface for anti-reflecting proposes
New approach for surface texturing to absorbed layers
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2.4- Encapsulation and Modularization Longer term stability is the key. Assuring energy output in the long term.
Development of encapsulates with improved properties for higher resistance to ambient conditions (temperature, humidity) decrease of module weight, suppression of at least one glass (glass-glass modules)
3- CPV
High throughput, high precision low-cost assembly technology Improve the whole CPV system efficiency, yield and cost Increase cell and module efficiencies. Sustainably reduced manufacturing cost Optimization of production yield Advancements in this area will be achieved by putting more focus on system development. It is necessary to look at the whole system to ensure that the full potential of cost reduction is achieved. Efficiencies should reach 35% at DC level and 30% at AC level.
Increase the cell efficiency towards 50% by new cell architectures and industrial equipment to produce these cell structures
Industrial low cost, automated and optimized manufacturing processes for high efficiency concentrator cells and optics, including specific equipment and control methods
Improve the reliability and the accuracy of the tracking system, develop automated systems to monitor the proper functioning of trackers and to detect failure
4- Photovoltaic building system integration (BIPV)
Flexible and conformable PV modules: Development of advanced encapsulation solutions at low cost;
Development of low cost multifunctional BIPV products that can be used as certified construction materials Design of flexible production lines for manufacturing a wide variety of products, in different scales and on different substrates. Development of new multifunctional PV based products including new installation concepts. Industrial automated low-cost manufacturing process and control methods, including development of new flexible equipment for different production lots with different geometries (e.g. small or large production lots, flexible compounds, different substrates as constructive elements).
Material and system solutions to integrate the PV function into existing products and materials of the building envelope
Design of flexible production lines for manufacturing a wide variety of products, in different scales and on different substrates
Smart junction boxes: Integration of DC-DC or DC-AC conversion devices; integration of protection, switch-off devices..
HV module development;
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5- Grid integration
5.1- Components for grid integration All these topics under this section 4.1 should directly address performance and lifetime enhancement, coupled with the reduction of manufacturing costs but as the main way for system cost reduction. BOS and monitoring systems have become a crucial factor in overall system costs For 2025 a 10-15% reduction in the BOS cost should be achieved.
Integrated electronics: improvement of lifetime, durability, and reliability. Development of plug-and-play designs
Devices and new services for an improve of controllability and forecasting of PV systems output, active and reactive power, frequency behaviour and decentralized voltage regulation
Low cost and highly reliable components for micro-grid, island and off grid PV systems and PV-hybrid systems.
Implementation and integration of PV technology. Accommodate a high penetration of intermittent or non-continuous energy source into the electricity grid. The topics as variability, flexibility of supply, aggregation, quantification of solar resources and active monitoring and control should be implemented as well as the active role of end users (now denominated prosumers). To enable large-scale deployment of PV this topics should be focus on implementation of active monitoring and control as well as the active role of end users (now denominated prosumers) to overcome topics as variability, flexibility of supply aggregation and quantification of solar resources. LCoE for PV must include the grid integration cost or storage costs Currently LCoE values for PV are between 0,06 and 0,14 €/KWh, depending on insolation level and financial possibilities. For 2018 it is expected a LCoE value between 0,045 and 0,085 €/kWh
Enable high penetrations of PV whilst minimizing the cost impact: proof of concept for technical feasibility of very high levels of PV penetration, either in urban or isolated environment
Demand side management combined with smart grid solutions.
Increase the overall flexibility of the power system by improved PV forecasting techniques and electricity prediction models and/or energy efficiency solutions
Development of simulation and monitoring tools (early fault detection, weather forecasting, modelling and simulation of ancillary services, etc.)
Proof of concept for smart grid projects in combination with smart PV systems (meters and relevant hardware/software).
Integrate cost effective storage solutions in PV systems
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6- Quality assurance, long term reliability and sustainability
Develop and apply system design techniques for achieving high outdoor long-term performance >25 years with a decrease yearly ratio lower than 0.5% of the initial performance ratio, at low cost
The items under this topic should address the issue of quality and lifetime enhancement. It details cross technology projects addressing quality assurance, reliability at module and system level, considering the surrounding environment (tropical, salinity, high UV radiation,... areas), and issues of sustainability including life-cycle assessment and recycling of components. Inverters life time higher than 25 years on 2020 CAPEX for large PV systems (€/Wp) will be reduced from the current range 1,1 to 1,6 €/Wp to 0,85 to 1,10 €/Wp OPEX cost reduction around 20%.
New low cost, long-lifetime material alternatives and module designs for longer term reliable PV systems and reduced degradation.
Reduction/suppression of toxic material: Cd-based active or buffer layers...
Increase energy yields by reducing system losses, fault prediction and long term reliability of systems, reduce BoS and maintenance cost
PV inverters optimized for different PV technologies with improved lifetime, lower cost and monitoring systems
Testing, modelling and technology demonstration leading to increase overall system performance/reduced losses
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SOLAR THERMAL ELECTRICITY
Each topic’s target is applied to a reference plant for each technology and its social and economic (CAPEX, OPEX, and LCOE) impact is evaluated. The data on these reference plants is presented in Annex ¡Error! No se encuentra el origen de la referencia.5.
Topic Economic and social impact comments
1. Higher plant efficiency
More efficient plant monitoring and control
The implementation of more efficient operational strategies by
means of control instrumentation and actuators allows to maximize
the amount of solar radiation collected by the solar field and
reflected onto the receiver (higher electricity production)
Target: Increase of overall plant efficiency (+5%)
At a same level of investment costs, higher annual energy output can be attained with a reduction of the OPEX (-1%) and the LCOE (-5%).
Equipment for on-site checking of optical, geometrical and thermal quality of solar concentrators and receivers
The topic refers to new tools and procedures to check the optical,
geometrical and thermal quality of solar concentrators and
receivers during the plant lifetime in a fast and accurate way.
Identifying maintenance needs and corrective actions, both lower
operational costs and higher plant efficiency can be obtained.
Target: Higher efficiency of the solar field during its life time (+5%) and lower solar field OPEX (-5%).
An increase in efficiency of the solar field by 5%, as well as an OPEX decrease of 1%, lead to a lower LCOE (-5%).
Better selective coatings for PTC and LFR receivers
The quality of used selective coatings is directly related to the
temperature levels that can be achieved in receiver tubes. By
improving the temperature behaviour of selective coatings, receiver
temperatures above 500°C are possible. Therefore, efficiency of
sensible-heat TES and power cycles can be enhanced.
Target: °C and s > 0,96.
s above 0,96, at 450°C, the LCOE can be lowered by 1,5% for PTC and 1% for LFR. A higher OPEX (+0,3%) is expected for PTC.
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More efficient designs and better selective coatings for high temperature receivers in solar towers
Higher solar absorptivity, lower thermal losses (radiant and
convective), and lower thermal stresses can be achieved by means
of more efficient and innovative designs and better selective
coatings.
Target: Annual efficiency of solar tower receivers higher than 85% in surround solar field configuration.
Although higher CAPEX may be expected (+1%), the improvement of the annual overall efficiency of a central receiver could decrease LCOE by 3%.
New working fluids and/or receiver conditions for higher temperatures
Higher temperature levels of the HTF allow both higher efficiency of
the power block and higher storage capacity per unit volume. The
main challenge to overcome is widening up the operational bands of
the working fluids.
Target: T > 425°C for PTC/LFR; T > 600°C for CR.
For PTC and LFR, operating temperatures above 425°C reduce the LCOE (-5% and -3% respectively). For CR, working temperatures higher than 600°C lower LCOE by 3%. For PTC and LFR investment costs would be lowered by 1%, whereas CR plants would experience an increase of 1%. In all cases OPEX is higher: 1% for PTC; 0,8% for CR and LFR.
Software development at component level.
Development of well certificated and validated advanced software
tools for the design and optimization of different plant components
(receivers, TES systems, steam generators for molten salts, dry-
cooling condensers, etc.) considering their dynamic behaviour.
Target: Reduction of the CAPEX (-3%).
A CAPEX reduction of 3% can lead to a LCOE reduction of 2,6%.
Software development at system level to optimize electricity production
Development of well certificated and validated software tools to
optimize the plant electricity production by designing new plant
configurations and operation strategies to get higher efficiencies.
Target: Higher overall plant efficiency (+5%).
The potential of this topic is expected in the lowering of OPEX by 1%, the increase of the overall plant efficiency by 5%, and the decrease of LCOE by the same amount.
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2. Lower investment and O&M costs
More cost-effective sun tracking systems
More cost-effective sun tracking systems without reducing their
accuracy would lower investment and operational costs.
Target: Cost reduction of the equipment (-10%).
For PTC plants, the impact of these equipment cost reduction on CAPEX is low (-0.1%), with no influence on both the OPEX and LCOE. For CR plants a decrease of CAPEX by 2%, of OPEX by 1% and of the LCOE by 2% is to be expected. For LFR technology CAPEX, OPEX, and LCOE would decrease by 0,5%.
Improved solar concentrators design
Higher automation will reduce the manpower requirements for the
manufacture and on-site assembly processes. Furthermore, new
concentrator structures using cheaper materials and/or easy to
process, as well as the development of new structure designs
lowering wind forces, will reduce the cost of the concentrator
structure themselves, as well as the cost of the related civil works.
Target: Lower costs of the solar concentrator (-15%), and/or lower solar field OPEX (-5%).
Expected CAPEX decreases are 5% for PTC, 4% for CR, and 3% for LFR. The OPEX are lowered for both PTC and CR by 3% and for LFR by 1,5%. This results in an overall LCOE reduction of 4,6% for PTC, 5% for CR and 2,7% for LFR.
Advanced cleaning systems for concentrator mirrors and receivers, or low soiling characteristics maintaining lifetime
Low-soiling surfaces for concentrator mirrors and receivers, as well
as new cleaning procedures requiring less personnel and/or water
consumption, allow lower maintenance needs of STE plants.
Target: Cost reduction for mirror cleaning (-60%); water reduction for washing (-50%)
This topic not only has positive influence on the environmental impact of STE plant, but it will also result in lower OPEX (-2%) and an improvement of the LCOE (-0,3%).
Improved durability of key components
Due to the rough environmental conditions that STE plants often
have to withstand, more reliable behaviour of key components
(receiver tubes, ball-joints, TES, heat exchangers, steam generators,
pumps, etc.) is needed. The use of scratch-resistant surfaces and
coatings for mirrors, reflectors, and glass tubes is preferable
especially when high dust exposure is expected.
Target: Lower reduction of the average plant efficiency during its lifetime (<4%) and/or lower OPEX (-5%).
Assuming measures providing durability will lower OPEX by 5%, it can lead to a LCOE reduction of 0,7% for PTC and CR, and 0,9% for LFR.
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3. Better dispatchability and grid integration
Improved sensible heat storage concepts
Development of more efficient sensible heat TES current designs at
lower costs as well as the development of new concepts are needed.
Widening the operational temperature band will also have a
relevant effect on the costs of both the TES system and the plant
efficiency.
Target: Lower investment costs (per kWhth) of the TES systems (-20%).
For PTC, a 3% decrease in investment results in a lowering of the LCOE by 2,6%. For CR, CAPEX decreases by 1,2% and LCOE by 1%. This technology is not considered for LFR systems.
Tools for solar radiation forecasting and nowcasting
Modern tools for predicting and analysing the solar irradiation have
to be addressed at different levels. The data acquisition of current
states by ground measurement networks, and the weather
prediction by means of numerical prediction models and satellite
imaging have to be combined in order to get accurate forecasts for
the following hours and days.
Target: Error < 15% for nowcasting (1-6 h); error < 25% for forecasting (24 h)
At mildly higher operational costs (+0,2%) an improvement in efficiency is possible that would lower LCOE (-1%).
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4. Development of markets with specific constraints (scarce water, sand storms)
More efficient dry-cooling systems
In order to get rid of the waste heat, the STE plant has to be cooled.
By the use of dry cooling systems instead of wet cooling– that is
especially valuable in regions with high DNI – water consumption
can be significantly reduced. The challenge of this topic is to achieve
efficiency values similar to the wet cooling ones.
Target: Lower reduction of the plant efficiency in comparison to wet cooling (<3%).
The impact of this topic lies mostly in the lowering of the environmental footprint as the costs of the system rise. The investment would be 1% higher but the operation would be cheaper (-0,3%). However, due to the lower plant efficiency, the LCOE would increase by 2,3%.
Methodology to analyse degradation and predict lifetime of key components
Adequate methods and accelerated aging procedures to analyse
degradation and predict lifetime of key components (reflectors,
absorbers, tracking mechanisms, flex-joints, etc.) are necessary in
extreme environments.
Target: Open new markets in countries with adverse ambient conditions (sand storms).
The quantitative values are difficult to be determined, and yet to be calculated.
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OCEAN ENERGIES
Topic Economic and social impact comments
1. Subsea electrical infrastructure
Device or system to facilitate the cost effective subsea interconnection of multiple wave converters or tidal turbines to form an array with a single cable to onshore grid connection.
The cost of offshore operations is high and carries various levels of inherent risk. It is therefore important to avoid unnecessary risks and minimise both the CAPEX and OPEX of the array. To that end the ability to safely interconnect devices subsea limiting the cost of cabling while allowing easy retrieval of individual devices without compromising the performance of the array is key to reducing the cost of energy.
Low cost and reliable wet-mate medium voltage connectors (3.3kV, 6.6kV, 33kV) based on agreed standards for use in depths up to 100 – 150m both for wave and tidal energy converters.
It is also essential to minimise disturbance of the array and device cabling when carrying out O&M. Wet-mate connectors allow the fast separation of electrical (and control) cabling without placing strain on the cable.
Effective low cost cable protection and installation system for inter-array and shore connection cables in tidal sites and other sites requiring this type of protection (rocky bottoms, surf zones, etc.).
There is limited experience of cable installations in high tidal flows. But indications are that to ensure a long working life great attention must be given to prevent damaging the cables. This requires the effective protection of the cables against tidal forces such as abrasion, strumming and accidental damage throughout the 20 - 25 year life of the project. Traditional solutions are expensive and have a significant impact on the project CAPEX (also, into a certain extent, on the OPEX) where the protection can limit O&M activities.
High reliable dynamic electrical cables. Similarly, protection, inspection and monitoring tools, and systems and improved design for fatigue handling and control of dynamic electrical cables for wave energy converters (designed to oscillate significantly) are important to increase reliability and reduce costs over their expected lifetime of 20 – 25 years.
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2. Operation & Maintenance
Development of smart condition monitoring systems, including sensors, for foundations, converters, connections, etc. to minimise maintenance costs in wave and tidal energy.
O&M costs have a significant impact on the commercial viability of a technology and array. Small arrays are particularly sensitive to O&M cost as the energy produced and income are small. While the specific O&M to be carried out depends on the specific technology, some general principles apply to all:
Minimise the duration of any operation;
Minimise any weather restrictions;
Improve inspection and monitoring tools and methodologies,
including subsea vision to aid inspection and operations, CMS
integration and fault-tolerant control;
Improve O&M decision tools intended to reduce down time costs,
best management of appropriate weather windows and available
infra-structure.
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3. Foundations and Moorings
Low cost "fixing" device/system to secure tidal turbine foundations to rock seabed. Also relevant for wave technologies with the submerged part connected to the seabed.
Tidal foundations, their installation and eventual decommissioning represent a significant project cost. The cost of the structure is often less than its associated installation cost. The installation cost is dominated by the time spent by the installation vessels and their availability (large DP heavy lift vessels are limited and in high demand by the oil and gas industry). Very significant cost savings could be achieved by developing a foundation design that allows the use of more readily available vessels. The cost of the anchoring method is highly dependent on the time spent on site drilling and grouting the foundation.
Solutions for reducing the cost, complexity and environmental impacts of mooring arrangements for wave energy converters, in particular at the scale of farms in the range of hundreds of megawatts.
Offshore wind energy economics show that offshore farms should be in the range of 400 MW. Typical wave energy converters are below 1 MW of installed power and some may require 3 mooring lines with typical lengths in the range of 250 meters. So, 400 MW offshore wave farms may involve more than 400 devices and up to 300 km of mooring lines if no appropriate solution is found. The environmental impacts, inspection requirements and reliability issues associated with such length of the mooring lines may be a significant threat to wave energy development.
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4. PTO Components
BoP - high reliability power electronics, storage systems, electrical auxiliary and control systems (including fault-tolerant control) for use in wave converters or tidal turbines and subsea infrastructure.
Highly reliable and efficient power electronics, auxiliary and control systems are essential in the generation of grid code compliant power. It is necessary to install this equipment within the submerged turbines and wave converters or power modules making access for O&M difficult and costly. While this type of equipment is largely well developed and is in use in numerous applications around the world its subsea use requires a higher level of reliability than that normally achieved. Similar equipment is responsible for a relatively high percentage of wind turbine outages. Access restrictions means that this is not acceptable for ocean energy in the long term. Additionally, both tidal and particularly wave energy are not continuous and so the ability to store power, either in the short term for power smoothing, either in longer term for improved continuity of supply, are potentially important.
Improved tidal turbine components (blades, sealing, etc.): Design optimization, weight reduction, etc.
It is possible that a significant impact on cost reduction could come from innovative changes to existing turbine concepts. Based on the growing collective volume of operational experience and on the greater understanding of the working environment, new and/or improved components design are possible. These components will offer improvements in performance, in reliability as well as operating costs, all of which have a beneficial effect on the LCOE.
Innovative and generic power take-off systems for wave energy converters, including those based in electric-active polymers and negative springs for point absorbers.
Electro-active polymers are materials that produce electrical energy when deformed. This direct drive material may be a game changer in wave energy as it avoids the use of electro-mechanical components and systems that are expensive and less reliable due to the approximately 3 million annual fatigue cycles that they need to support. The development of these materials for wave energy application was initiated a few years ago with interesting results at laboratory scale (TRL 3).Negative springs are systems that react opposite to common springs (they create a force in the direction of the displacement). Negative springs will thus reduce the hydrostatic spring, which is responsible for high resonance frequency (in comparison to the typical wave frequencies). Negative springs also enlarge the frequency response of heaving devices and are less demanding for the power take-off
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equipment. Recent developments in this area are interesting and deserve attention.
5. Materials
Integration of innovative materials and coatings on blades and turbine moving parts and structure in tidal and wave energy.
Materials may play an important role in ocean energy both in reducing CAPEX and OPEX, namely through auto-regenerative, auto-sensorial, fatigue resistant and corrosion resistant materials. Coatings may also play an important role. In wave energy, deformable materials to adjust the shape (and resonance) of the device to the incoming waves or to submerge them to increase their survivability in stormy conditions, may be very interesting options.
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6. Wave and Tidal energy converters and farms
Demonstration of innovative and differentiating concepts with potential for significant decrease of LCOE presently at TRL7.
These units demonstrate, at full scale in real sea conditions, a single device that has the ability to deliver a significant reduction in the LCOE compared to more traditional turbine designs. They will have already demonstrated the concept at scale and have compelling verifiable evidence to substantiate any claims made.
Development of disruptive (game changer) concepts with potential for a large decrease of LCOE presently at TRL5.
The challenge of reducing the LCOE is both significant and urgent if tidal energy is to become a sustainable industry. There is opportunity for a radical approach that takes advantage of solutions/technologies developed for other purposes that could provide tidal with a step change in performance. These could be at component or system level but will share one thing in common in that their adoption will result in a significant and wide scale improvement over existing solutions. As such, they can be grouped under the heading of game changers.
Second generation/game changers tidal devices (e.g., floating, multiple rotor, reduced O&M, use/production in low tidal energy sites) even if at TRL5.
The majority of leading turbine concepts are designed for medium and high flow areas and are single, bottom mounted three blade horizontal axis machines. These designs are very similar to wind turbines and so it is possible to project their LCOE based on installed MWs and expected development. Second generation devices will capitalise on lessons learnt and develop designs that will increase yield significantly (kWh/kg) and/or reduce CAPEX and OPEX and open new lower energy sites to commercial arrays.
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ANNEX List of participants in the WG
List of institutions that have contributed to the Thematic Strategy and Road mapping v2:
WIND ENERGY
Frieder Schuon IREC, Spain (Coordinator)
Andreas Rettenmeier University of Stuttgart, Germany
F. Javier Alonso Gas Natural Fenosa, Spain
Christine de Jouëtte, Paul Deglaire AREVA Wind, France
Stephanie Muller, Vincent Maupu EDF, France
Jos Beurskens External Advisor, The Netherlands
SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC
Emiliano Perezagua Consultores Energía Fotovoltaica (Coordinator)
Joan Ramon Morante IREC
Marc Vermeersch TOTAL
Philippe Malbranche CEA-INES
SOLAR THERMAL ELECTRICITY
Carlos-David Pérez-Segarra UPC (Coordinator)
Eduardo Zarza PSA-CIEMAT
Luis Crespo ESTELA Solar, Protermosolar
Marcelino Sánchez CENER
Robert Pitz-Paal DLR
OCEAN ENERGIES
António Sarmento WavEC (Coordinator)
Ken Street Alstom
Tore Gulli Fred Olson
Ana Novack GDF Suez
João Gonçalo Maciel EDP
Alfonso Babo IST
Pablo Ruiz Minguela Tecnalia
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