July 2014 Nyeri County Early Warning Stages and Trends

NDMA Nyeri County Kieni Sub-County Drought Monitoring Bulletin for June 2014 Page 1 Email: [email protected]

KIENI SUB-COUNTY DROUGHT MONTHLY BULLETIN FOR JULY 2014

July 2014 Nyeri County Early Warning

Stages and Trends

Early Alert: Worsening

Early Alert: Worsening


Situation Overview

The month of July was generally dry and windy. Light showers were realized in some parts of

the Kieni Sub County which had no significant impact on both crops and livestock production.

On average, 39.95 mm of rainfall were realized during the month.

Due to the erratic and depressed rains experienced in the area, the current river flows are at the

minimum base flow. Water holding structures and pans are drying up while the boreholes are

currently not recharged though the static levels have been maintained. Average distances to

water sources have increased in the region

Livestock body condition was fair tending to poor. Observed body conditions could be

attributed to deteriorating pasture conditions as well as long trekking distances to and from

watering points and grazing areas. Available pastures are expected to last for 2 to 3 weeks if the

current situation does not change. Browse condition remained good across all the livelihood

zones.

March-April-May (MAM) season crop suffered from moisture stress as the season rains were

below average. Crop were affected at critical production stages as maize dried at tasseling stage,

wheat dried at knee height while beans were lost at flowering and pod formation stage.

However, only small yields might be realized by few households that planted early before MAM

season onset.

Due to the deteriorating livestock body conditions cattle average prices dropped by 28 percent,

from Kshs 36,083.30 in June to 25,964 in July. Sheep and goat prices also declined by 27.2

percent and 11.8 percent from Kshs 4,051.80 and Kshs 3,800 in June to Ksh 2,947.90 and Ksh

3,350 in July respectively.

Milk production was on a downward trend registering a 9.8 percent drop from 6.8 bottles in

June to 6.1 bottles in July. Drop in the production is attributed to the deteriorating pasture

condition and long trekking distance in search of pasture. Milk consumption decreased by 10.5

percent from 2.0 bottles in June to 1.79 bottles in July. A bottle of milk retailed for 1.04 percent

more from Kshs 20.48 in June to 20.77 in July.

Majority of the household relied on markets to meet household needs during the month under

review. A kilo of maize retailed for 5.3 percent higher from Kshs 47.47 June to Kshs 50 July.

A kilo of beans retailed for 4.4 percent less from Kshs 83.1 last month to Kshs 79.45 in July.

Nutrition status of children below the age of five during the month under review stood at 3.07

percent. Highest malnutrition rates were reported in Naromoru of 7.3 percent followed by Thegu

at 2.4 percent, Mwiyogo 2.1 percent and Kabaru at 1.3 percent. Observed status was above the

normal threshold. This could be attributed to poor feeding habits, decline in exclusive

breastfeeding and food shortage.

Recommendations to CSG and KFSSG

Vaccination for cattle against Lumpy Skin Disease. (LSD) and Foot and Mouth Disease

(FMD). In addition, livestock disease surveillance should be intensified (Action: CDVS)

Provision of certified seeds to needy households in preparation for the October to December

short rains planting season (Action CDA)

Campaigns on early destocking and promotion of supplementary feeding as a dry season

feeding strategy should be undertaken (Action CDLP)

Hold peace building meetings to enhance dialogue, cohesion and negotiation on resource

sharing between pastoralists and Kieni residents (Action: CSG)

Provision of supplementary feeding for children at risk of malnutrition (Action DNO)

Provision of water for irrigation purposes should be increased to improve on food production.

Water harvesting at community and household level should also be promoted (Action CDW)


1.0 ENVIRONMENTAL INDICATORS (STABILITY) 1.1 Rainfall

The month of July had been dry and windy. On average 39.95 mm were realized in the region,

which were poorly distributed. The rains did not have any positive impact on the livestock and

crop production.

Image 1: below represent rainfall distribution in July 2014 for Kieni East and West sub counties

Image source: NOAA/USGS/FEWSNET/USAID

The region had rainfall coverage of between 0-10 mm though some pockets realized rains of

between 40-80 mm. Percentage of normal rains ranged between 80-120 percent with few

pockets recording higher percentages above 300 percent as observed in image 1 above.

Rainfall estimates comparison

MF-lz registered rainfall averages of 24.94 mm distributed as 13.29, 4.79 and 6.89 in the first,

second and third dekad respectively.

MMF recorded average rainfall of 15.01 mm distributed as 7.38 mm, 3.63 mm and 4 mm in the

first, second and third dekad respectively. Long-term averages for the month of July in both

livelihood zones is zero mm as highlighted in figure 2 below.


Figure 2: Shows rainfall distribution estimates in MF and MMF livelihood zones

1.2 Condition of natural vegetation and pasture

Quality:

Pasture quality was below normal as compared to a similar period last year. This is attributed to

the low precipitation, frost attacks and windy conditions. However the browse situation was

good.

Kieni low lands were the most affected with most of its natural pastures having dried up. High

attitude zones bordering the mountains registered fair pasture quality, which was also on a

deteriorating trend.

Quantity:.

Pastures quantity was low throughout the region and are fast getting diminished due to over

grazing, vagaries of weather most specifically frequent frost attacks coupled with strong winds

blowing off loose pasture. Influx of pastoralists and about 300 herds of cattle have been reported

in Kieni East areas of Gakawa, Naromoru, Solio ranch headed to Mt Kenya and Kabaru

depleted visible pastures.

Livestock hardly have enough for their upkeep with most farmers opting to fetching pastures

along road reserves through cut and carry methods, while others are secretly moving their

livestock into private ranches. The available pastures are expected to last for 2-3 weeks if the

current situation does not revert..

Average Tropical Livestock Unit in mixed farming livelihood zone was 3.5 while in the

marginal mixed livelihood zones stood at 4.5, registering a high carrying capacity compared to

normal.

Distance to grazing areas

Average grazing distance for July increased by 2.04 percent from 1.47 Km in June to 1.5 Km in

July. Registered distances were however lower by 21 percent, compared to the 2011-2013 long

term averages of 1.9 Km as highlighted in the image 3 below.


Figure 3: presentation of average return distances from grazing fields and households’ to water

points

<Source: NDMA sentinile sites. Total sample size (n) 330 HH.>

Trekking distances to watering point in FE/CWL/B-lz and MMF-lz registered a 14.2 percent

and 5.8 percent rise from 0.7 Km and 1.7 Km in June to 0.8km and 1.8Km in July respectively.

However, distances at MF-lz dropped by 5.2 percent from 2 Km in June to 1.9 Km in July.

1.3 Water Sources and Availability

Tapped water and natural rivers were the main water sources for the majority of household

during the month under review as highlighted in figure 4 below. There was a drop in water

usage from natural rivers to stand at 33 percent.

Figure 4: Shows main water sources for the region

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

11-13 ave. grazing dist 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.9

11-13 ave. hh dist 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3

2014 ave grazing dist 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5

2014 ave hh dist 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Dis

tan

ces i

n k

m

Average 2014 grazing and household return distances to water points for Kieni vs 2011-2013

averages

33%

67%

Main water sources and % of users in July 2014

Natural rivers

Other water sources


1.3.1 Households’ access to water

Household distances to water sources increased by 3.33 percent from 0.9 Km in June to 0.93

Km in July. Average waiting time also dropped by 21.25 percent from 0.8hr in June to 0.63hr in

July. Compared to the 2011-2013 long term averages of 1.3 Km the distances were good as

indicaed in figure 3 below.

MMF-lz and FE/CWL/B-lz registered a rise in distances from 1.3 Km and 0.7 Km in June to 1.4

and 0.8 in July respectively. Distances in MF-lz dropped by 33.3 percent from last month to

stand at 0.6 Km.

1.4 Emerging issues

1.4.1 Insecurity/Conflict/Human Displacement

No conflicts incidences were reported during the period of monitoring.

1.4.2 Migrations.

Influx of pastoralists and about 300 herds of cattle have been reported in Kieni East areas of

Gakawa, Naromoru, Solio ranch headed to Mt Kenya and Kabaru in search of pasture of water.

1.5 Implications on Food Security

Due poor performance of the MAM season and below normal precipitation during the month

under review the current pasture is poor in quality and quantity. Current pastures are expected to

last for 2-3 weeks. Livestock body condition has also deteriorated leading to a drop in milk

production

River flows are at the base flow while the water holding structures have dried up. Distances to

water source from grazing field and household level have increased leading to a deterioration of

the body condition further. Issues of water related conflict and rationing are expected to

increase.

In migration of large herds of animals from neigbouring counties combined with livestock

disease outbreaks as a result of uncontrolled livestock movements will only worsen an already

deteriorating situation. Increased cases of livestock diseases and conflict among communities

are expected.

2.0 RURAL ECONOMY INDICATORS (FOOD AVAILABILITY)

2.1 Livestock Production

2.1.1 Livestock Body Condition

Livestock body condition was fair in high attitude zones and fair tending to poor in lower zones

of Kieni Plains. Observed body conditions could be attributed to deteriorating pasture

conditions as well as long trekking distances to and from watering points and grazing areas to

those doing roadside and forest grazing. Road side grazing did contribute to deteriorating

livestock body conditions as most grass species along the road reserves consists of

unpalatable species.

2.1.2 Livestock Diseases

Suspected cases of Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) have been reported in Mweiga- Kieni West and

a ring vaccination is being undertaken. In addition, unconfirmed cases of the same were

reported in Solio settlement. Cases of Foot and Mouth disease (FMD) have been reported in

Maragima in Kieni East Sub County, and investigations are still ongoing for necessary action

to be taken. Common livestock diseases in Kieni sub county include ECF, Anaplasmosis, Eye

infections and NCD in fowls.


2.1.3 Milk production

Milk production was on a downward, registering a 9.8 percent drop from 6.8 bottles in June to

6.1 bottles in July. Drop in the production is attributed to the deteriorating pasture condition,

which has an effect in the livestock body condition and health. Compared to 2011-2013 long-

term averages of 4.8 bottles the observed production was above threshold.

Deteriorating livestock body condition due to poor pasture conditions and long trekking

distances from grazing field and watering points has led to a 12.8 percent and 8.9 percent drop

production in MMF-lz and MF-lz from 8.7 bottles and 11.24 bottles to 7.6 bottles and 10.22

bottles in July.

Figure 5: Presentation of average milk production and consumption for the region


2.2 Crop Production

2.2.1 Timeliness and condition of various crop production activities

The March-April-May (MAM) season crops suffered moisture stress at various critical stages of

development, with little or no yields expected if any. Maize and wheat dried at tussling and knee

height stage, while beans dried at flowering and pod formation stage. Horticulture crops are

doing fair under supplemental irrigation.

The region is on the brink of fourth consecutive season of total crop failure if current weather

conditions persist.

2.2.3 Harvest

Minimal crop harvests continued being realized in high attitude zones bordering the mountains


Milk consumption(2011-2013

ave) 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.6

Milk consumption yr. 2014 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.8

Milk production(2011-2013 ave) 5.1 4.7 5.1 5.4 5.3 5.4 4.8

Milk production yr. 2014 6.8 6.5 7.2 7.6 7.2 6.8 6.1

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Mil

k c

on

sum

pti

on

in

75

0 m

l b

ott

les

Mil

k p

rod

uct

in i

n

75

0 m

l b

ott

les

Average household daily milk production and consumption in year

2014 as compared to 2011-2013 averages


where households are harvesting Irish potato chats. However, some households in upper

livelihood zones are currently harvesting beans though negligible.

2.2.4 Implications on Food Security

There is a drop in on farm activities and in extension a drop in casual engagements to majority

of the households. Crops performance was also poor as season loses were massive having

experienced a fourth total crop failure.

Negligible yields will be realized to few households. More so none of the household monitored

held food reserves thus majority of the households continue to rely on markets as their main

food supply.

Reported losses were further aggravated by frost bites and emergence of pests and diseases like

Tuta abosoluta and MLND.

3.0 ACCESS TO FOOD

3.1 Livestock marketing

3.1.1 Cattle prices

Markets reacted to deteriorating livestock body conditions, with a 28 percent drop in prices.

Cattle sold for an average of Ksh 25,964.30 in July, down from Ksh 36,083.30 registered in

June. Compared to 2011-2013 price averages of Ksh 19,2601.10 the months prices were high

as highlighted in figure 6 below.

There was a decline in prices across livelihood zones with MMF-lz and Mf-lz registering

average prices of Kshs 24,928.60 and 27,000 in July down from Kshs 39,333.30 and 32,833.30

in June respectively.

Figure 6: Presentation of average cattle and sheep prices


3.1.2 Sheep prices


2011-2013 ave sheep prices 2676.6 2719.4 2582.3 2452.6 2422.7 2512.2 2415.6

Yr 2014 ave. sheep prices 3910.0 3598.8 3740.5 3669.1 3733.4 4051.8 2947.9

2011-2013 ave cattle prices 21079.3 20841.0 22306.2 22565.1 21448.4 21765.6 19260.1

Yr 2014 ave. cattle prices 26500.0 0.0 22375.8 24450.0 29632.0 36083.3 25964.3

0.0

500.0

1000.0

1500.0

2000.0

2500.0

3000.0

3500.0

4000.0

4500.0

5000.0

0.0

5000.0

10000.0

15000.0

20000.0

25000.0

30000.0

35000.0

40000.0

Sh

eep

pri

ces

in k

sh

Ca

ttle

pri

ces

in k

sh

Average prices of cattle and sheep year 2014 as compared

to 2011-2013 average prices


Sheep prices dropped by 27.2 percent, from Ksh 4051.80 in June to Kshs 2947.9 in July.

Compared to 2011-2013 long-term averages of Kshs 2415.60, current prices were above

average.

Prices of Ksh 3,345.80 and Kshs 2,550 were registered in MMF and MF livelihood zones during

the month under review.

3.2 Livestock sales

During the period of monitoring, livestock sale numbers increase by 75 percent for goats while

for sheep decreased by 13.2 percent. Number of cattle offered for sale remained the same as for

last month. 11 cattle, 38 sheep and 16 goats were sold during the month under review.

3.2 Milk consumption.

Milk consumption decreased by 10.5 percent from 2.0 bottles in June to 1.79 bottles in July.

The month’s consumption was below 2011-2013 long term averages of 1.6 bottles as outlined in

figure 5 above.

MMF and MF-lz registered 12.2 percent and 11.1 percent drop in consumption from 2.8 bottles

and 3.1 bottles in June, to 2.4 bottle and 2.7 bottles in July. FE/CWL/B-lz recorded 17.6 percent

rise in consumption from 0.15 bottles in June to 0.18 bottles in July.

3.4 Crop Marketing

3.4.1 Maize prices

Maize prices increased by 5.5 percent as compared to last month, to retail for Kshs 50.0 a kilo

in July up from Ksh 47.40 in June. Compared to the 2011-2013 long term averages of Kshs

41.9 the prices were above normal averages as outlined in figure 7 below.

FE/CWL/B-lz and MF-lz registered 1.47 percent and 3.5 percent rise in price, with a kilo

retailing for Ksh 48 and Ksh 47.7 respectively in July, up from Ksh 47.3 and 46.1 in June

Figure 7: Outlines average price trends for maize and beans

<Source: NDMA sentinile sites. Total sample size (n) 330 HH.

3.4.2. Beans prices

Beans prices were on a downward trend, dropping by 4.2 to retail at Ksh 79.45 a kilo in July


from Ksh 83.10 in June. Observed drop in beans prices was attributed to realization of some

beans yields from the MAM season harvests. Compared to the 2011-2013 long term averages

of Ksh 75.10, the prices were within the normal threshold as can be observed in figure 7 above.

At livelihood zones, a kilo retailed for 83.1 in MF-lz down from 92.1 last month while in

MMF-lz prices registered 9.5 percent increase in prices from Ksh 69.20 in June to 75.8 in July.

3.5 Incomes

3.5.1 Crop income

Income from sale of crops dropped by 47% as compared to last month. Sales were mainly from

onions, carrots, cabbages and potatoes although in small scales. Sale of crops income

accounted for 2.8 percent of total households’ source of income.

In MMF-lz crop sales decreased by 62 percent while in MMF-lz they remained as was reported

last month.

Reported sales especially for potatoes and carrots were obtained from forest farming under

plantation establishment and livelihood improvement scheme (PELIS).

Figure 8 below is a tabulation of household’s income sources.

Figure 8: Tabulation of households’ income sources


3.5.2 Livestock incomes.

Sale of livestock products and specifically milk sales is the second most relied upon source

of household income from casual labour, accounting for 24.5 percent of total household

income sources. During the month under review, income from sale of livestock products

slightly dropped by 1.2 percent compared to the previous month.

A 750 ml bottle retailed for 1.42 percent more, from Ksh 20.48 in June to Ksh 20.77 in

July.

3.5.3 Other sources of income

Number of persons in employment dropped 2.3 percent from last month. Casual labour


increased by 3.7 percent with wage incomes from casual labour accounting for 34.6 percent of

total household source of incomes in July up from 33.4 percent reported in June. Daily wage

rate registered 0.5 percent rise from Ksh 203.67 in June to Ksh 204.67 in July.

Petty trading increased by 2 percent and accounted for 15.8 percent of total household source

of income. Remittances and formal employment declined by 33.3 percent and 8 percent

accounting for 2.5 percent and 8 percent of total household source of income respectively

3.6 Households terms of trade;

Cereal : meat price ratio

Terms of trade ratio increased by 27 percent from 0.33 in June to 0.42 percent in July as

pointed out in the figure below.

A kilo of maize-posho retailed for an average of Ksh 49.50 up from Kshs 48.87 while a kilo of

shoat live meat retailed for Kshs 121.58 down from Kshs 151.03 last month. A kilo of live

meat was equivalent to 2.5 kilograms of cereals during the month under review.

Figure 9: Analysis of households terms of trade


4.0 HUMAN WELFARE INDICATORS (UTILIZATION OF FOOD)

4.1 Nutrition Status

Nutrition status of children below the age of five during the month under review stood at 3.07

percent. Observed status was above the 2011-2013 long term averages of 1.3 as outlined in

figure 10.

Figure 10: Presentation of nutrition status of children below five years


Cereal:meat price ratio(11-13 ave)

0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5

Cereal:meat price ratio yr 2014

0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

July 2014 vs (2011-2013) averages Cereal:Meat price ratio



Out of 1143 children monitored during the month, 16 registered MUAC below 135 mm with

Narumoru registering the highest percentage of children at risk of malnutrition of 7.3 percent

followed by Thegu at 2.4 percent.

4.2 Health

No observable human diseases outbreaks were noted in the region for the period of monitoring.

5. CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES AND COPING STRATEGIES

5.1 Non-food interventions

No interventions were ongoing.

5.2 Food Aid

No food assistance was reported during the period of monitoring.

5.3 Coping strategies Coping strategy index stood at 1.17 in July down from 1.2 in June accounting for 2.5 percent drop as

indicated in the figure 11 below.

Most households in the region employed low coping strategies below the score of 14. Gatarakwa

registered high coping in the region of 1.7 score, Kabaru 0.9 and Gakawa 0.5 and Endarasha at 0.3.

Figure 11: presentation of the region coping strategies


2011-2013 % of under fives at risk of mulnutrition

0.9 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.3

Yr 2014 % of under fives at risk of malnutrition

1.7 1.2 2.4 3.9 4.1 4.3 3.1

0

1

2

3

4

5

% a

t ri

sk o

f m

aln

utr

itio

n

Percentage Nutritional status of children aged between 13-59 months at risk of malnutrition compared to 2011-2013 averages



Some of the coping mechanisms employed by households included borrowing from friends and

relatives, remittances, gifts, charcoal burning and skipping meals.

6.0 RECOMMENDATIONS TO CSG AND KFSSG

Vaccination for cattle against Lumpy Skin Disease. (LSD) and Foot and Mouth Disease

(FMD). In addition, livestock disease surveillance should be intensified (Action: CDVS)

Provision of certified seeds to needy households in preparation for the October to December

short rains planting season (Action CDA)

Campaigns on early destocking and promotion of supplementary feeding as a dry season

feeding strategy should be undertaken (Action CDLP)

Hold peace building meetings to enhance dialogue, cohesion and negotiation on resource

sharing between pastoralists and Kieni residents (Action: CSG)

Provision of supplementary feeding for children at risk of malnutrition (Action DNO)

Provision of water for irrigation purposes should be increased to improve on food production.

Water harvesting at community and household level should also be promoted (Action CDW)


Coping strategy index yr.2013

0.9 0.9 1.1 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.2

Coping strategy index(11-13 ave)

0.9 1.1 1.0 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.0

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Household coping strategy index year 2014 vs (2011-2013) averages

Documents

July 2014 Nyeri County Early Warning Stages and Trends