Upload
quilla
View
26
Download
1
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections. Trend reversal in Childlessness in Sweden. Lisbon 28-30 April 2010. Lotta Persson Forecast Institute Statistics Sweden. The model for fertility assumptions. Assumptions for 7 groups. Different methods. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections
Trend reversal in Childlessness in Sweden
Lotta Persson
Forecast InstituteStatistics Sweden
Lisbon 28-30 April 2010
2389Vill du avs1
2
The model for fertility assumptions
Group % 2009
Swedish-born 77Foreign-born
Nordic countries 2 EU-countries 3 remaining Europe 4 countries with high HDI 2 countries with medium HDI 10 countries with low HDI 2
Assumptions for 7 groups
3
Different methods
• Swedish-born: assumptions on the probability to give birth to the first, second, third or fourth (or more) child for each age and cohort
• Foreign-born: The age specific fertility is projected forward
4
Method for Swedish-born
First birth incidence rates for cohorts born 1970, 1975 and 1980
1970
1975 1980
5
Method for Swedish-born
Fertility for cohort born in 1975
Observed Predicted
First child
Second
child
Third child
Fourth child
6
Development of childlessness
Percent childless
17 %
15 %
7
Development of childlessnessSwedish born
Percent childless
1960
1965
19701975
1977
8
Rapid educational expansion
Educational level at age 30
0
20
40
60
80
100
1960 1965 1970 1975Cohort
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary education < 3
Tertiary education > 3
Year
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
0
Mean age at first birth
9
Educational level and childlessness
1960
1965
1970
1975
1977
10
Possible reasons for the trend reversal in childlessness
• Increased possibility to get infecundity treatments (IVF treatments increased from 3 000 in 1991 to 12 000 in 2007).
• Survey in 2009 shows that it is common to have used aid to have children (40 percent of those who had their child after age 34 had used aid).
11
Aid to have children – more common among women with higher education
05
101520253035404550
Primary school
Secondary school
Tertiary education
-27 years
28-33 years
34-40 years
Share of women who used aid to have children by educational level
and age at birth of first child
12
More positive attitude towards having children among women with higher education
Share of childless cohabiting or married women who answer “yes” to
the question: Do you think you will have children in the future?” by
age and educational level
and age at birth of first child
0102030405060708090
100
Primary school
Secondary school
Tertiary education
-27 years
28-33 years
34-40 years
13
Future development?
Percent childless
Thank you for listening!
14
How many of them will be childless in the
future?