People in the EU - population projections Statistics Explainedec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/pdfscache/44711.pdf · Eurostat’s projections indicate that the EU-28’s

People in the EU -population projections Statistics Explained

Source Statistics Explained (httpseceuropaeueurostatstatisticsexplained) - 11062020 1

Data extracted in November and December 2017Planned update December 2020

This is one of a set of statistical articles that forms Eurostat rsquos flagship publication ArchivePeople in the EUwho are we and how do we live it presents a set of population projections for the European Union (EU)covering the period 2016 to 2080

A paper edition of the publication was released in 2015 In late 2017 a decision was taken to update theonline version of the publication (subject to data availability) Readers should note that while many of thestatistical sources that have been used in People in the EU who are we and how do we live have been revisedsince its initial 2015 release this was not the case for the population and housing census as a census is onlyconducted once every 10 years across the majority of the EU Member States As a result the analyses presentedoften jump between the latest reference period mdash generally 2015 or 2016 mdash and historical values for 2011 thatreflect the last time a census was conducted

The size of a population changes in a dynamic fashion over time as a function of three demographic fac-tors births deaths and migratory flows each of which shapes the populationrsquos structure over time Themain outcome of the current low levels of fertility and mortality in the EU-28 is a progressive ageing of thepopulation This is an ongoing demographic process and its consequences are analysed by policymakers fromsocial economic and labour-related perspectives

Population projectionsThe latest population projections released by Eurostat provide a main scenario and four variants for pop-ulation developments from 2015 to 2080 across 29 European countries all of the EU-28 Member States aswell as Norway These projections were produced using data for 1 January 2015 as a starting point and there-fore include any modifications made to demography statistics resulting from the 2011 population census exercise

Eurostatrsquos population projections result from the application of a set of assumptions on future developments forfertility mortality and net migration The projections should not be considered as forecasts as they show whatwould happen to the resulting population structure if the set of assumptions are held constant over the entiretime horizon under consideration in other words the projections are rsquowhat-ifrsquo scenarios that track populationdevelopments under a set of assumptions As these projections are made over a relatively long time horizonstatements about the likely future developments for the EUrsquos population should be taken with caution andinterpreted as only one of a range of possible demographic developments

This article presents a concise summary of the results from the rsquomain scenariorsquo It is restricted to the periodcovering 2015 to 2080 and hence the time-series shown begin with the most recent official statistics available atthe time of writing (namely those for 2015 or 1 January 2016) for a more detailed presentation of this dataplease refer to an article on ArchiveDemographic changes mdash profile of the population

Population projections suggest there will be a fluctuating pattern of developments during thenext six decades

Eurostatrsquos projections indicate that the EU-28rsquos population will grow overall by 17 between 1 January2016 and 1 January 2080 with the number of inhabitants increasing by 85 million persons The EU-28rsquospopulation is projected to peak around 2045 reaching 529 million persons an increase of 188 million (or 37) compared with the situation as of 1 January 2016 The size of the EU-28rsquos population is then projected toprogressively fall with a population of 519 million persons by the start of 2080 (see Table 1)

Figure 1 Projected population EU-28 1 January 2016-2080(2016 = 100)Source Eurostat(demo_gind) and (proj_15npms)

People in the EU - population projections 2

Table 1 Demographic balance 1 January 2016-1 January 2080(thousands)Source Eurostat(demo_gind) and (proj_15npms)

An ageing societyEurostatrsquos main scenario projects that the pattern of population ageing within the EU-28 is likely to continuethrough to 2080 Ageing may be measured through an analysis of various demographic indicators including

bull the median age

bull the proportion of the population in each of the main demographic age groups mdash namely children (definedhere as those aged 0-14 years) the working-age population (15-64 years) and the elderly population (65years and over) and

bull age dependency ratios mdash such as the young-age dependency ratio the old-age dependency ratio or thecumulated age dependency ratio (which combines the young-age and old-age ratios and therefore measuresthe ratio of dependent children and elderly persons compared with the number of working-age persons)

Median age of the EU-28 population expected to increase by 42 years between 2015 and 2080

The median age of the EU-28rsquos population is projected to increase by 42 years from 424 years in 2015 to466 years in 2080 Although the total EU-28 population is projected to increase modestly during the period2015 to 2080 the relative and absolute sizes of the different population age groups are expected to followcontrasting developments (see Figure 2) The proportion of children is projected to decrease slightly in bothrelative and absolute terms from a share of 156 (or 795 million children) at the start of 2016 to 152 (or789 million children) by 2080 with the share falling to a low of 147 in 2040 before recovering somewhat Theshare of the working-age population in the EU-28rsquos total population is also expected to decrease falling from3330 million persons at the start of 2016 (or 653 of the total) to 2884 million persons by 2080 (556 ) theoverall reduction in the working-age population during the next six and a half decades is therefore projectedto be 445 million persons with the share of the working-age population projected to fall below 60 by 2035and to remain below this level through to 2080 The share of the elderly in the total population of the EU-28is projected to increase from 192 (or 977 million elderly persons) at the start of 2016 to 291 (or 1510million elderly persons) by 2080 As such the share of the elderly is projected to rise by 99 percentage points reflecting an additional 533 million elderly persons by 2080

Figure 2 Population by broad age group EU-28 2016-2080( of total population)SourceEurostat (demo_pjanbroad) and (proj_15ndbims)

Population projections suggest there will be 661 million people aged 80 years and over in theEU-28 by 2080

Eurostatrsquos projections indicate there will be substantial increases in the number of very elderly persons inthe EU-28 with a progressively ageing population The share of the very old mdash defined here as those aged 80years and over mdash in the total EU-28 population is projected to increase from 54 in 2016 to 127 by 2080In absolute figures their number is projected to more than double rising from 273 million very old persons in2016 to 661 million by 2080

These changes in the EU-28rsquos population structure can be seen clearly in Figure 3 which provides a graphicalpresentation of population changes by age and by sex by superimposing two population pyramids (for 2016 and2080) The differences between these pyramids show the projected changes in the composition of the EU-28rsquospopulation namely that

bull the already low number of births is projected to continue as the base of the pyramid will remain relativelyunchanged indicating that there will be little or no natural population growth

bull the working-age population will shrink considerably between 2016 and 2080 thus further increasing theburden on those of working-age to sustain the dependent population

bull the proportion of elderly persons will grow much larger mdash as shown by the broadening at the top of thepyramid mdash reflecting the ageing of the EUrsquos population as a result of lower mortality rates

bull the number of centenarian women is projected to be considerably higher than the number of centenarianmen

The 2016 population pyramid may be described as a rhomboid (a parallelogram where the adjacent sides areunequal) due to the relatively high number of men and women aged 45-55 a cohort who were born in the second

half of the 1960s and early 1970s These people will in the coming years gradually move into retirement whilethere are fewer persons of working-age in the generations that follow Indeed this shift in age distribution pro-vides further confirmation of the ongoing process of population ageing as the share of the EU-28rsquos working-agepopulation declines and the proportion of elderly persons increases

Figure 3 Population pyramids EU-28 2016 and 2080( of total population)Source Eurostat(demo_pjan) and (proj_15npms)

By 2080 there will be less than two persons of working-age for each elderly person

Demographic dependency ratios are based on the age structure of the population rather than their employ-ment status Figure 4 shows projected age dependency ratios for the EU-28 covering the period 2016 to 2080The young-age dependency ratio is projected to increase modestly rising by 35 percentage points from 239 in 2016 to 274 by 2080 By contrast the EU-28 old-age dependency ratio is projected to increase at a rapidpace through to 2045 reflecting the on-going process of retirement among the baby-boomer and subsequent agecohorts Indeed the old-age dependency ratio is projected to increase by 230 percentage points from 293 in 2016 to 523 by 2080 As such while there were more than three persons of working-age for every elderlyperson in 2016 by 2080 this ratio is expected to be less than 2 1

Figure 4 Age dependency ratios EU-28 2016-2080()Source Eurostat (demo_pjanind) and(proj_15ndbims)

Population projectionsBy 2080 Germany is likely to be the third largest EU Member State in population terms behindthe United Kingdom and France

Among the individual EU Member States the projected changes in population structures vary considerablyboth in terms of when the highest level of population is reached and the scale of population increasesdecreasesA closer analysis of the projections for 2080 reveals that the EU Member States with the largest populations mdashassuming no changes in the membership of the EU mdash will be the United Kingdom (824 million inhabitants)France (787 million) Germany (778 million) Italy (538 million) and Spain (510 million)

Figure 5 presents the projected changes to the populations of the EU Member States during the period 2016to 2080 with an increase in the number of inhabitants foreseen for 13 Member States as well as for NorwayPopulation numbers are predicted to rise by more than 35 overall in three of these countries Luxembourg(where the population is projected to increase by 851 ) Sweden (up 461 ) and Norway (up 374 ) Therapid population increase in Luxembourg is largely due to an assumption that relatively high levels of net inwardmigration observed during the last decade will continue over the coming years Slightly lower increases in therange of 25-35 are projected in Ireland the United Kingdom and Belgium while the number of inhabitantsis expected to rise by 15-20 in Denmark Malta Cyprus France the Netherlands and Austria and by lessthan 10 in Spain and Finland

The largest reductions in population numbers by 2080 are projected in several eastern and south-ern EU Member States

By contrast the number of inhabitants is projected to fall between 2016 and 2080 in 15 of the EU Mem-ber States Among these there will be a relatively modest decline in the total number of inhabitants living

in Germany Slovenia and the Czech Republic (where the population is expected to contract by 5-7 ) Thedecline in the number of inhabitants is projected to be within the range of 11-13 in Italy Hungary Slovakiaand Estonia while reductions of 22-27 are projected for Croatia Poland Romania and Portugal Largercontractions mdash with the total number of inhabitants falling by approximately one third mdash are projected forGreece Latvia and Bulgaria while the largest reduction of all is projected in Lithuania as its population ispredicted to fall by 426 between 2016 and 2080

Figure 5 Projected population change 2016-2080()Source Eurostat (demo_gind) and(proj_15npms)

By 2080 all of the EU Member States will have aged compared with 2016 although the pace of change willvary considerably These differences are reflected in the projected changes for median ages and age dependencyratios This pattern of population ageing is already being experienced in some Member States and is projectedto continue and in some cases develop at an even faster pace with a growing number of persons becomingdependent on the working-age population As a result population ageing will likely have a considerable impacton public expenditure plans for example in relation to pensions healthcare and long-term care costs

Figure 6 shows that during the period 2016 to 2080 the median age of the EU-28 population is projectedto increase by 40 years to reach 466 years Cyprus and Poland are the only EU Member States projected tosee their median ages rise by more than 10 years (increases of 154 years and 105 years respectively) whileall of the remaining Member States are expected to see their median ages continue to increase The smallestincrease is projected in Spain where the median age of the population is projected to increase by just 02 yearsfrom 428 years to 430 years by 2080 As such Spain is projected to have the second lowest median age amongthe Member States by 2080 behind Ireland (427 years) which will continue to have the youngest populationwhen based on an analysis of the median age

Eurostat projections indicate that there will be 16 EU Member States where the median age in 2080 is likely tobe higher than the EU-28 average Among these the median age is expected to rise above 50 years in Polandand Greece (both 504 years) Italy (506) Portugal (524) and Cyprus (526) by 2080

code=proj_15ndbims

Age dependency ratiosThe share of children in the total EU-28 population is projected to fall at a modest pace during the period 2016to 2040 with a 09 percentage point reduction as those aged 0-14 are projected to account for 147 of thetotal number of inhabitants in the EU-28 thereafter the share of children in the total EU-28 population willincrease slowly Over the period 2016-2040 the share of young persons in the total population is projected toincrease in just two of the EU Member States and to decrease for the others Germany and Malta are the onlyMember States where the share of young persons is expected to increase (in both cases the share of childrenrising by just 01 percentage points) while Ireland (-50 percentage points) Cyprus (-42 points) and Greece(-31 points) are projected to have the largest contractions

The EU-28 young-age dependency ratio mdash which compares the number of children with the number of peoplein the working-age population mdash is projected to rise during the period 2016 to 2054 when it is expected toreach 265 The ratio will then increase at a more modest pace through to 2070 when it is projected to havereached 268 before accelerating to 274 by 2080

Among the EU Member States the young-age dependency ratio is expected to increase the most between2014 and 2080 in Spain (up 69 percentage points) and to rise by 50-60 points in each of Slovenia LatviaRomania Bulgaria Lithuania Malta and Slovakia The ratio is projected to increase in all but two of the

remaining Member States the exceptions being Ireland and Cyprus where the young-age dependency ratio isprojected to fall by 35 and 24 percentage points By 2080 12 of the EU Member States are expected to havea young-age dependency ratio that are at least as high as the EU-28 average (274 ) with this ratio peakingat more than 300 in Ireland and Sweden

The share of the working-age population is projected to fall in each of the EU Member Statesduring the period 2016-2080

In 2016 the EU-28rsquos working-age population accounted for almost two thirds (653 ) of the total popula-tion This share is expected to fall to 561 by 2060 then to rise slightly before continuing its downward pathto reach 556 by 2080 In all 29 countries for which projections are available (the 28 EU Member Statesand Norway) the share of the working-age population in the total population is projected to contract duringthe period 2016 to 2080 The pace at which the share of the working-age population is projected to decline isexpected to be faster than the EU-28 average (-97 percentage points between 2016 and 2080) in 19 of the EUMember States with the largest relative declines expected in Slovakia Poland Cyprus and Portugal

By contrast the share of elderly persons in the total population is projected to increase in all 29 countriesduring the period 2016 to 2080 Across the whole of the EU-28 this proportion is projected to increase from192 to 291 (a rise of 99 percentage points) Among the EU Member States the relative share of theelderly in the total population is projected to increase by between 60 percentage points in Sweden and 190percentage points in Cyprus Eurostatrsquos population projections indicate that the share of elderly persons inthe total population will increase by at least 10 percentage points in more than half of the EU Member Statesbetween 2016 and 2080

A shrinking number of working-age persons and a growing number of elderly persons compound the impact onold-age dependency ratios Within the EU-28 the old-age dependency ratio is projected to rise from 293 in2016 to 523 by 2080 (an increase of 230 percentage points) The vast majority of this change will take placeduring the period 2014 to 2050 as the EU-28 old-age dependency ratio is projected to increase from 503 to523 between 2050 and 2080

Among the EU Member States the largest increases for the old-age dependency ratio are projected for CyprusPoland Portugal Slovakia and Greece with projected gains in excess of 30 percentage points for the whole ofthe period 2014 to 2080 The old-age dependency ratio was expected to increase in all 31 countries with thehighest ratios in 2080 being projected for Portugal (691 ) Greece (653 ) Italy (627 ) Cyprus (625 )and Poland (615 )

By 2050 projections indicate that there will be fewer than two working-age persons for eachelderly person in 14 of the EU Member States

Figure 7 depicts developments for the old-age dependency ratio between 2016 and 2050 after which the pace atwhich the EU-28rsquos old-age dependency ratio grows is projected to slow In half (14) of the EU Member Statesthe old-age dependency ratio is projected to be higher than 50 by 2050 mdash in other words there will befewer than two working-age persons for each person aged 65 and over For 8 out of these 14 Member States mdashSlovakia Poland Spain Greece Lithuania Romania Portugal and Slovenia mdash the old-age dependency ratio isprojected to more than double between 2016 and 2050 this is also the case for Ireland

Figure 7 Old-age dependency ratio 2016 and 2050()Source Eurostat (demo_pjanind) and(proj_15ndbims)

Ireland recorded the lowest old-age dependency ratio in 2016 and is projected to do so again in2080 when Portugal is projected to have the highest old-age dependency ratio

Maps 1 and 2 provide an alternative picture of the old-age dependency ratio presenting the situation in 2016and 2080 In 2016 the old-age dependency ratio ranged across the EU Member States from lows of just over200 in Ireland Luxembourg and Slovakia to highs of 343 in Italy and 331 in Greece By 2080 thesituation is predicted to have changed considerably as the old-age dependency ratio is projected to range from45-46 in Ireland Sweden and Spain up to highs of 690 in Portugal and 653 in Greece

Map 1 Old-age dependency ratio 2016()Source Eurostat (demo_pjanind)

Map 2 Projected old-age dependency ratio 2080()Source Eurostat (proj_15ndbims)

A similar pattern of development is projected for the share of the very old in the total population The pro-portion of the EU-28 population aged 80 years and over stood at 54 in 2016 and is projected to rise by 73percentage points to reach 127 by 2080 Eurostatrsquos projections for 2080 indicate that the share of the total

population aged 80 years and over will range among the EU Member States from 99 in Ireland to 159 inPortugal

There are 21 EU Member States where the latest projections indicate that the share of the very old in thetotal population will increase between 2016 and 2080 by more than the EU-28 average (74 percentage points)with the largest gains expected in Cyprus (125 points) Poland (115 points) Slovakia (108 points) and Malta(103 points) By contrast the shares of the very old in the total populations of Spain France Sweden andBelgium are expected to increase by no more than 60 percentage points during the period 2014 to 2080

The combined effect of a slightly declining proportion of children and a continuously rising proportion of olderpersons is a considerable increase in the total age dependency ratio In 2016 17 of the EU Member States andNorway had more than 50 dependents for each 100 working-age persons while by 2080 it is expected that allof the EU Member States will have more than 74 dependents per 100 working-age persons

The impact of births and deaths on population changeIn 2016 there were almost 16 thousand more deaths than births in the EU-28 However projections for 2017and 2018 indicate that this pattern would be reversed with a natural increase (the difference between birthsand deaths) in EU-28 population numbers after which there would be a return to natural population decreasesthroughout the remainder of the period to 2080 Figure 8 shows that the projected number of deaths in theEU-28 will be higher than the projected number of births for the whole of the period 2019 to 2080 with thelargest gap between deaths and births being recorded during the period 2055-2060

Eurostatrsquos projections indicate that there will be considerable differences in natural population changes duringthe period 2016 to 2080 with

bull natural population increases projected for most (or all) years in four of the EU Member States (IrelandFrance Sweden and the United Kingdom) as well as Norway

bull natural population decreases projected for most (or all) years in 15 Member States (Bulgaria the CzechRepublic Germany Estonia Greece Croatia Italy Latvia Lithuania Hungary Poland Portugal Ro-mania Slovenia and Slovakia) and

bull a mixture of positive and negative natural population developments for the remaining nine Member States(Belgium Denmark Spain Cyprus Luxembourg Malta the Netherlands Austria and Finland)

Figure 8 Projected number of live births and deaths EU-28 2016-2080(million)Source Eurostat(demo_gind) and (proj_15ndbims)

Migratory patterns mdash immigration and emigration mdash also have an impact on population age structures result-ing from either positive net inward migration (more people arriving in a country than leaving it) or negativenet inward migration (more people leaving a country than arriving) In those EU Member States that arecharacterised by positive net inward migration it is possible that the process of population ageing may beslowed down as migrant populations are often characterised as having a high share of working-age persons Onthe other hand where there is negative net inward migration the ageing process may be accelerated as thoseleaving the country may also tend to be relatively young thereby reducing the number of working-age personsin the population while also reducing the fertility rate as well

Figure 9 shows the contributions of natural population change and net inward migration to overall popula-tion change in the EU-28 during the period 2016 to 2080 These long-term projections suggest that the naturaldecrease in population numbers during the period 2019 to 2060 will accelerate However the rate at whichthe EU-28 population decreases as a result of natural changes is subsequently expected to slow although theoverall effect on the total population change will continue to outweigh the contribution of net migration Acloser examination of each component shows that

bull net inward migration will be positive over the entire period and will be the main contributing factor tothe overall change in population numbers up until 2040 when net inward migration will be much higherthan the natural population decrease

bull natural population change will be negative over the entire period (from 2019 onwards) with the number ofdeaths exceeding the number of births during the period from 2045 onwards the negative natural changein population numbers will outweigh the positive change from net inward migration thereby leading to afall in overall population numbers although these two counteracting forces are projected to almost canceleach other out by 2080

During the period 2016 to 2080 Eurostatrsquos projections suggest there will be 3323 million births and 3900million deaths in the EU-28 equivalent to a net reduction of 577 million inhabitants as a result of natural

changes in the population During the same period the cumulated impact of positive net inward migration isprojected to be 662 million resulting in an overall change in the total population of 85 million inhabitants

Figure 9 Projected natural population change net migration and total population change EU-28 2016-2080(million)Source Eurostat (demo_gind) and (proj_15ndbims)

A demographic future mdash concluding remarksEurostatrsquos population projections indicate that population ageing will continue across all of the EU MemberStates and Norway Although the EU-28rsquos population is projected to be slightly higher in 2080 than it was in2016 its structure will be increasingly old with a considerable reduction in the number of and share of working-age persons The ageing process that is underway may be highlighted through the increasing number of veryold persons whereby the elderly population is itself in the process of ageing While migration has the potentialto help delay the ageing process in some of the EU Member States it may also speed up the process of ageingin those Member States which are characterised by a relatively high proportion of their working-age populationleaving for example in search of work Indeed the latest projections indicate that age dependency ratios arelikely to continue increasing highlighting challenges for public expenditure in relation to pensions healthcareand long-term care costs

Source data for tables and graphsbull Demographic challenges mdash population projections tables and figures

Other articlesbull All articles from ArchivePeople in the EU who are we and how do we live

Main tablesbull Population (t_demo_pop)

bull Population projections (t_proj)

Databasebull Population (demo_pop)

bull Population projections (proj)

Dedicated sectionbull Population

Legislationbull Demographic statistics a review of definitions and methods of collection in 44 European countries

bull Legislation relevant for population statistics

bull Methodological notes concerning population projections

External linksbull European Commission mdash the 2018 ageing report

View this article online at https ec europa eu eurostat statistics-explained index php People_in_ the_ EU_ -_ population_ projections

Population projections

An ageing society

Age dependency ratios

The impact of births and deaths on population change

A demographic future mdash concluding remarks

Source data for tables and graphs

Other articles

Main tables

Database

Dedicated section

Legislation

External links

Eurostatrsquos projections indicate that the EU-28rsquos population will grow overall by 17 between 1 January2016 and 1 January 2080 with the number of inhabitants increasing by 85 million persons The EU-28rsquospopulation is projected to peak around 2045 reaching 529 million persons an increase of 188 million (or 37) compared with the situation as of 1 January 2016 The size of the EU-28rsquos population is then projected toprogressively fall with a population of 519 million persons by the start of 2080 (see Table 1)

Figure 1 Projected population EU-28 1 January 2016-2080(2016 = 100)Source Eurostat(demo_gind) and (proj_15npms)

bull the median age

code=proj_15ndbims

An ageing society

Other articles

Main tables

Database

Dedicated section

Legislation

External links

bull the median age

code=proj_15ndbims

An ageing society

Other articles

Main tables

Database

Dedicated section

Legislation

External links

code=proj_15ndbims

An ageing society

Other articles

Main tables

Database

Dedicated section

Legislation

External links

code=proj_15ndbims

An ageing society

Other articles

Main tables

Database

Dedicated section

Legislation

External links

code=proj_15ndbims

An ageing society

Other articles

Main tables

Database

Dedicated section

Legislation

External links

code=proj_15ndbims

An ageing society

Other articles

Main tables

Database

Dedicated section

Legislation

External links

code=proj_15ndbims

An ageing society

Other articles

Main tables

Database

Dedicated section

Legislation

External links

An ageing society

Other articles

Main tables

Database

Dedicated section

Legislation

External links

An ageing society

Other articles

Main tables

Database

Dedicated section

Legislation

External links

An ageing society

Other articles

Main tables

Database

Dedicated section

Legislation

External links

An ageing society

Other articles

Main tables

Database

Dedicated section

Legislation

External links

An ageing society

Other articles

Main tables

Database

Dedicated section

Legislation

External links

An ageing society

Other articles

Main tables

Database

Dedicated section

Legislation

External links

An ageing society

Other articles

Main tables

Database

Dedicated section

Legislation

External links

An ageing society

Other articles

Main tables

Database

Dedicated section

Legislation

External links

Documents

People in the EU - population projections Statistics Explainedec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/pdfscache/44711.pdf · Eurostat’s projections indicate that the EU-28’s