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ex
rketView
1
mpanyUpdate 2
undthe
nomy 3
wledgeCorner 3
tualFund 4
mmodityCorner 5
exCorner 6
ortCard 7
rtTermCallStatus 8
or&Contributor
rgi Shah
cialContributors
eshTrivedi
tyaNahar
suggestions,feedback
queries
[email protected]
Market View
The market has left behind the worries of BREXIT local issues
are in focus
The last weeks performance of market was stunning and has left
behind the worries emanating f
BREXIT. The local investors and the international fraternity are
of the view that the issues on
BREXIT will be confined more to Europe and Britain. So far as
India is concerned, the investo
that the local issues including the earnings are more important.
The market is reflecting th
sentiment and has conquered a recent high. The market is
expecting reasonably good monsoon
first quarter earnings. It is also expected that the first
quarter earnings will be better than the
expectations. The pace with which The Government is moving for
reforms is also providing
vibes in the general economic atmosphere and amongst the
international investors. The G
overtaken almost all hurdles and is ready to be passed in the
monsoon session of parliament. 10approved in many sectors has
generated lot of interest for India amongst the big
multinationals.
the following chart indicating the research centers to be opened
by the multinational compa
various countries announced from April 2015 to December
2015.
Considering the above factors, if the monsoon progresses well,
any dip in the market will be aopportunity. Technically any rise
above 8360 will take the market to 8500-8600.
K a m a l J h a v e r i
M D - J h a v e r i S e c u r i t i e s
1 -
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Company Basics
E Code 532938
E Symbol CAPF
UITY ( in Cr.) 90.98
T.CAP ( in Cr.) 149.74
Financial Basics
FV () 10.00
EPS () (TTM) 17.2
P/E (x) (TTM) 31.1
P/BV (x) (TTM) 181.88
BETA 1.31
RONW (%) 8.38
Share Holding Pattern
Holder's Name % Holdin
Foreign 8.37
Institutions 9.91
Promoters 65.2
Non. Promoters 1.43
Public & Others 15.09
Govt Holding 0.00
mpany Overview
pital First (CAPF) is the retail financing NBFC formed in 2012
as a result of a management buyoutting NBFC. Post Mr. Vaidyanathan
taking reigns in FY11 and revamping the business model, the who
ding entity was catapulted to grow into a strong retail NBFC.
CAPF lays greater thrust on retail, SMolesale segments; within
retail CAPF offers LAP, two-wheelers and consumer durable loans.
Catering
derserved traditional market, CAPF has carved its own niche in
the MSME and two-wheelers segment sed to replicate success on the
lines of Bajaj Finance in the consumer finance market.
estment rational
ong AUM growth with the shift towards retail assets
L has been able to manage AUM (assets under management) CAGR of
44% over FY11-FY15 on the backed strategy, strong processes,
superior financing skills, strong promoter and the ability to raise
funds onail AUM posted 90% CAGR over FY11-FY15, whereas
corporate
L emerging as a specialized player in financing MSMEs
L emerging as a specialized player in financing MSMEs by
offering different products for their various
needs. Capital First has a comprehensive product suite to meet
the multiple financial needs of its custodate, the Company has
financed more than 1.4 million customers, including more than
6,00,000 M
Company provides finance to its customers with the help of
contemporary scoring solutionhisticated technology. The Company,
through its extensive reach, provides essential debt capital to
MSM
uick, affordable and convenient manner.
versified loan mix translating into robust AUMs
ording to the needs of the customers, CAPF has carved its own
niche in the under-presented tradrket through its extensive reach.
With greater focus on MSME, two wheelers and customer finance sePF
caters to the under-served market characterized.
uation : CAPITAL FIRST is t rading at 615. We recommend
Accumulate with target price of 660 ,
k 30xFY18E EPS of 22.The stock current ly trades at 30x of
FY16E, 27.93xof FY17E and 22.98x of FY18E.
mpany Update : Capital First Ltd.
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eekly Market Recap :
The Union Cabinet on Wednesday, 29 June 2016, approved the
implementation of the recommendations of 7th CPay Commission (CPC)
on pay and pensionary benefits. The recommendations will benefit
over 1 crore employeencludes over 47 lakh central government
employees and 53 lakh pensioners. There will be payment of arrears
as t
plementation of the 7th Pay Commission recommendations will take
effect from 1 January 2016.
Coal India and Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI) signed
two agreements on Tuesday, 28 June 2016, for mentation of 200
megawatts (MW) solar power projects in Madhya Pradesh for the
beneficial utilisation of solar by Northern Coalfields (NCL) and
South Eastern Coalfields (SECL) at an estimated cost of Rs 650
crore.
arket Eye Week ahead :
Among domestic macro economic data, the Nikkei India Services
PMI will be declared on Tuesday, 5 July 2016. Tkei India Services
PMI fell sharply to 51 in May of 2016 from 53.70 in April.
UK Construction PMI data for June 2016 will be unveiled on
Monday, 4 July 2016. The data gives an indication abhealth of the
construction section in the UK.
UK Manufacturing Production data for May will be unveiled on
Thursday, 7 July 2016. Data on crude oil invent
he US will be unveiled on Thursday, 7 July 2016.
US Nonfarm Payrolls data will be unveiled on Friday, 8 July
2016. US Unemployment Rate data will be unveiledday, 8 July
2016.
Events / Factors to Watch
Tue : India services PMI data
Pass-Through Security
A pool of fixed-income securities backed by a package of assets.
A servicing intermediary collects the monthly payments fromnd,
after deducting a fee, remits or passes them through to the holders
of the pass-through security. It is also knowpass-through
certificate" or "pay-through security."
Pass-through securities are much like bonds. Most offer
semi-annual or monthly income, and this payment frequency enhan
ompounding effects of reinvestment.
round The World
301uly,2016
owledge Corner :
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utual Fund Corner
4-
Source : - www.valueresearchonlin
nd Name
heme Name Franklin India Taxshield Fund
CFranklin Templeton Asset Management IndiaPrivate Ltd
pe Tax Planning
egory Open-ended and Equity
nch Date April 1999
nd Manager Lakshmikanth Reddy
Assetsn crore )
Rs. 2146.4 crore as on May 31, 2016
Top 10 Sector Break-Ups
Sector Weights Fund
Financial 30
Automobile 10
Technology 9.
Healthcare 7.
Engineering 6.
Services 5.
FMCG 4.
Communication 4.
Diversified 3.
Chemicals 3.
Composition (%)
Equity 93
Debt 0
Cash 6
Risk Analysis
Volatility Measures
Standard Deviation 14
Sharpe Ratio 1
Beta 0
R-Squared 0Alpha 10
tory 2013 2014 2015 2016
(Rs) 256.14 401.94 418.22 447.30
l Return (%) 6.14 56.92 4.05 6.95
ifty 50 -0.62 25.53 8.11 2.14
Nifty 500 2.53 19.10 4.77 2.44
k (Fund/Category) 25/37 12/73 28/73 17/78
eek High (Rs) 256.59 405.89 447.57 447.30
Week Low (Rs) 210.69 246.33 398.79 372.01
Assets (Rs. Cr) 966.96 1500.10 1834.68 1800.73
ense Ratio (%) 2.47 2.42 2.39 -
Fund StyleInvestment StyleGrowth Blend Value
Large
Medi
Sma
301uly,2016
nd Performance v/s S&P CNX Nifty
FundCNX Nify
based to 10,000)
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mmodity Corner
5-
DAMENTAL: Last week, bullion prices gained supported by a weaker
dollar and prospects for further monetary policy easing in the in's
vote to leave the European Union. Concerns over the trajectory of
global growth, dovish comments from the U.S. Federal Reserve Ch
en and retail demand had supported gold ahead of last week's
Brexit vote. Silver gained to 22 months high as continued
uncertainty folloit vote and concerns over a slowdown in China lent
support to the safe-haven. Concerns about the global economy have
made chances orise in coming months less likely, but much will
depend on U.S. economic data and markets will be watching non-farm
payrolls due on Jcular for clues. Safe-haven demand for the metal
spurred most of the gains as investors rushed to protect them
against the uncertainty in o Britain's shock vote to exit the
European Union, dubbed 'Brexit.' Concerns over the trajectory of
global growth, dovish comments from eral Reserve Chair Janet Yellen
and retail demand had supported gold ahead of last week's Brexit
vote. Gold demand in Asia remained sweek as higher prices continued
to deter physical traders from making fresh purchases, with
discounts in India widening to a record hightered its biggest
monthly gain since February in June, on the back of safe-haven
buying spurred by political and economic concerns followvote to
leave the European Union last week. Gold demand in Asia remained
sluggish this week as higher prices continued to deter
physicamaking fresh purchases, with discounts in India widening to
a record high. Bullion registered its biggest monthly gain since
February in Jack of safe-haven buying spurred by political and
economic concerns following Britain's vote to leave the European
Union last week. Phys
and in top consumer China remained subdued as consumers
preferred to stay on the sidelines with bullion turning dearer
after Brexit. Bulliohina were seen at a discount of $1-$2 per ounce
to the global spot benchmark, which has been rallying for five
weeks. Prices were at a preast week. Meanwhile, in India, the
world's second largest consumer, dealers were offering a discount
of up to $47 an ounce as consumey from making new purchases.
Discounts rose to a record high of $57 an ounce on Monday, compared
with $30 to $55 Last week.OMMENDATION : BUY GOLD @ 31200 SL 30800
TGT 31800-32200. BUY SILVER @ 46500 SL 44000 TGT 48500-50000
DAMENTAL : Base metals prices last week rallied amid got support
from a weaker dollar and hopes for more stimulus in China while
nickest in nearly eight months on concern about developments in
Philippines, the biggest supplier of nickel ore to China. The new
mining mmitted environmentalist, announced plans to review all
mines operating in the country. Zinc prices gained by over five
percent on weekly bnued its firm trend rising for a fourth straight
session as funds continue to pile into the market. Expectations of
potential shortages have fue
n zinc but an inventory overhang means the metal is readily
available for consumers. Total world stocks of zinc at the end of
April stood at aon tonnes, according to the International Lead and
Zinc Study Group. Output of zinc, used to rust-proof steel, will
trail use by 144,000 mewill remain in deficit until at least 2020.
The shuttering of two of the worlds biggest mines, Chinas MMG Ltd.
Century mine and Vedanta ReLisheen mine, is helping push the zinc
market into deficit. Combined zinc inventories in Shanghai, Tianjin
and Guangdong fell 1,000 to
es this week. Zinc stocks in Guangdong and Tianjin grew
noticeably. Arriving shipments increased as zinc smelters sold
proactively at hs. Activity in the US manufacturing sector
accelerated its growth in June, the latest private survey revealed.
The Institute for Supply Mana) reported that its index of
purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector climbed over
estimates to 53.2 points in the final month of Qa's manufacturing
activity shrank more than expected in June as a drop in new orders
prompted factory owners to cut back production a
e jobs, a private business survey showed. The Caixin/Markit
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index (PMI) fell to 48.6 last
month, belowctations of 49.1 and May's reading of 49.2. Zambias
copper output in the first four months of this year grew 4%
year-on-year or 8,000 to600 tonnes due to higher output from three
mines Kalumbila, Kansanshi and Lumwana, according to Economic &
Commercial Counselloe Embassy of the People's Republic of China in
the Republic of Zambia. Output from Kansanshi, Lumwana and
Kalumbila mine was 77,46,400 tonnes and 37,400 tonnes,
respectively.OMMENDATION : BUY COPPER @ 328 SL 318 TGT 345-356. BUY
ZINC @ 142 SL 136 TGT 148-156. UY NICKEL @ 640 SL 6710. BUY
ALUMINIUM @ 110 SL 106 TGT 114.50-118. BUY LEAD @ 122 SL 118 TGT
126-130
DAMENTAL : Crude oil prices ended with small gains on weekly
basis after a bullish run on strong buying following Britain's vote
in favor o
European Union. However gains were perished on Friday as the
market's focus returned to oversupply as production from Nigeria
and Cad, and OPEC output reached a record high in June. In Canada,
oil sands output was also gradually increasing after wildfires had
curtailed As of Wednesday, around 400,000 barrels per day of
production were still affected in the Fort McMurray area. The
global oil market shly and demand in balance by 2017 though it will
remain structurally well-supplied for the next couple of years,
U.S.Energy Secretary ErneSpeaking to reporters after meeting with
Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih at the G20 energy
meeting in Beijing, Moniz saidagreed that despite short-term
production impacts, oil supply still exceeds demand. Natural gas
prices ended with around 10 percent ga
k as traders bet that warmer weather will help to ease a glut of
supplies in the U.S. The Energy Information Administration said
total workinerground storage rose 37 billion cubic feet to 3.14
trillion cubic feetabove the five-year historical average. Storage
levels may be near reor this time in the injection season, but the
rate of storage injections have been well below average, the
American Gas Association said in ar ago, the EIA reported a build
of 73 Bcf and the five-year average climb is 78 billion, according
to S&P Global Platts. Even now, productiogh that some expect
stockpiles by November to set a record high for the start of the
winter. But production has fallen slightly from its recorduary and
investors have bet hard that the market will rebalance within the
next year. Weather forecasts widely predict higher- than-avertures
throughout this summer, driving demand for gas-fired power to run
air. Natural gas prices are up nearly 45% since late May as
expegrown that hot summer weather will lead to heavy demand.
OMMENDATION : BUY CRUDE OIL @ 3240 SL 3100 TGT 3380-3500. BUY
NATURAL GAS @ 192 SL 184 TGT 202-210
BULLION
BASE METALS
ENERGY
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mmodity Corner
USD/INR
6-
rex Corner
EUR/INR
GBP/INR
JPY/INR
rket Eye Week ahead :
n the past session, pair broke out from the falling channel with
a huge positive gap and ended well above the sammore consecutive
closes will confirm the bullish breakout that can take of 68.39 .
and weekly support 67.20. Dailyhas started inching positive zone.
US dollar index is trading at 96 .35, as demand for the safe haven
continunvestors remaining uncertain about the repercussions of
Britains decision to leave the EU. US dollar is likely ton demand,
though further rate hikes have been written off for the year. We
see further appreciation of the USagainst pound and yen and thus
depreciation of rupee.
Level S2 S1 CP R1 R2 High Low Cl
SD/INR 67.46 67.54 67.65 67.73 67.84 67.77 67.58 67
Level S2 S1 CP R1 R2 High Low Cl
PY/INR 65.61 65.74 65.89 66.02 66.17 66.05 65.74 65
Level S2 S1 CP R1 R2 High Low Cl
BP/INR 89.27 89.65 90.19 90.57 91.11 90.74 89.82 90
Level S2 S1 CP R1 R2 High Low Cl
UR/INR 74.81 75.01 75.15 75.35 75.49 75.30 74.96 75
rket Recap :
The Indian rupee on Monday strengthened for the
ourth consecutive session to hit a two-week high
against the US dollar, after local equity markets
gained for the sixth consecutive session.
The home currency was trading at 67.24, up 0.12%
rom its previous close of 67.32.
The local currency opened at 67.22 and touched ahigh of 67.15 a
dollar.
The dollar index, which measures the US currencys
trength against major currencies, was trading at
95.751, up 0.11% from its previous close of 95.649.
301uly,2016
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Nifty last week opened at 8039.35, attained a low at 8039.35 and
moved up 8356.75. Nifty finally closed the w328.34 thereby showed a
net rise of 239 points on week to week basis .Next Week Weaker
opening and corre241-8126 can be used for buying with a stop loss
of 7927. Expect higher range of 8443-8761 to be tested. Intermop
will be formed if breakdown and close below 7927 is witnessed.
Expect Nifty to move towards 8498-86olatility .
Macroeconomic data, trend in global markets, investment by
foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and domestic instnvestors
(DIIs), the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil
price movement will dictate market trendear term.
7-
treet Recommendations Report Card
Top Fundamental Stocks
Stocks Rec. Date CMP on Rec. CMP TargetAbsoluteReturn @
CMPSta
nderla Holidays 25/04/2016 387 398 498 3% Accum
d-Tek Packaging 04/04/2016 138 189 179 37% Bu
mna Auto 22/02/2016 133 174 181 31% Bu
Educare 01/02/2016 164 169 230 3% B
ware-Wall Ropes 28/12/2015 425 399 550 -6% Bu
M Syntax 23/11/2015 121 101 223 -16% Bu
co Pharma 02/11/2015 509 593 636 17% Bu
F 21/09/2015 1140 1317 1374 16% Bu
uwal ia contracts 24/08/2015 235 282 368 20% Bu
nite Computer20/07/2015 190 212 255 12% Bu
dbhavgineering Ltd.
04/05/2015 298 287 430 -4% Bu
kar specialityemicals
16/03/2015 152 165 251 8% Bu
FL 16/02/2015 252 211 368 -16% Accum
Today Network 27/01/2015 222 302 337 36% Bu
M 12/01/2015 1238 1466 1452 18% Bu
vells India 27/10/2014 274 365 346 33% Bu
C India Fin. Ser. 07/07/2014 39 39 45 0% Bu
ani Port 05/07/2014 280 213 347 -24% Accum
pital First 06/06/2016 552 615 660 11% Accum
snotimportantwhetheryouarerightorwrong,Itsabouthowmuchmoneyyoumakewhenyou'rerightandh
chyou
lose
when
you're
wrong.
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7-
treet Short Term Call Status
301uly,2016
DATE
STOCK
BUY/SELL
RANGE
RANGETRIGGER
PRICETGT
SL
STATUS
RE
18May16 GRASIM BUY 4250 4350 4300.00 4450 4180 TA
19May16 CASTROLIND SELL 380 388 384.00 370 399 TA
20May16 BANKBARODA SELL 135 138 136.50 129.00 142 TA
23May16 ADANIENT SELL 69 70.5 69.75 65 72.8 SL
24May16WOCK
PHARMASELL 895 920 907.50 855 945 TA
25May16 SRTRANSFIN BUY 1145 1170 1157.50 1220 1110 TA
26May16 TATAMTRDVR BUY 267 273 270.00 285 258 TA
30May16 TATACHEM BUY 428 436 432.00 445 416 EXPIRE
31May16HEROMO
TOCOBUY 3050 3110 3080.00 3180 2990 TA
1Jun16 SBIN BUY 200 206 203.00 214 192 TA
2Jun16 ACC BUY 1535 1575 1555.00 1600 1505 EXPIRE
3Jun16 YESBANK BUY 1035 1065 1050.00 1110.00 1005 TA
6Jun16 TATAMOTORS BUY 451 461 456.00 482 438 TA
7Jun16 HINDALCO BUY 105 109 107.00 114 103 TA
8Jun16 ULTRACEMCO BUY 3310 3370 3340.00 3520 3240 SL
9Jun16 SIEMENS BUY 1251 1275 1263.00 1330 1225 EXPIRE
10
Jun
16
SIEMENS
BUY
1240
1265
1252.50
1330.00
1200
EXPIRE
13Jun16 LUPIN SELL 1430 1460 1445.00 1400.00 1370 SL
14Jun16 YESBANK BUY 1054 1080 1067.00 1130 1030 TA
15Jun16 VOLTAS BUY 327 333 330.00 340 318 EXPIRE
16Jun16 HDFCBANK BUY 1150 1170 1160.00 1220 1135 EXPIRE
17Jun16 VEDL BUY 121 124 122.50 126 118 TA
20
Jun
16
GODREJCP
BUY
1518
1548
1533.00
1580.00
1480
TA
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treet Short Term Call Status
301uly,2016
DATE STOCKBUY/
SELLRANGE
TRIGGER
PRICETGT SL STATUS CMP
RE
21Jun16 GODREJIND BUY 367 373 370.00 380.00 358 TA
22Jun16 BANKINDIA BUY 95 97 96.00 100.00 92 TA
23Jun16 HDFC BUY 1228 1252 1240.00 1275.00 1200 OPEN
24Jun16 BAJAJAUTO BUY 2654 2705 2679.50 2750.00 2600 TA
27Jun16 BAJAJAUTO BUY 2654 2705 2750.00 2810.00 2600 TA
28Jun16 ULTRACEMCO BUY 3365 3433 3500.00 3565.00 3300 OPEN
29Jun16 BRITANNIA SELL 2723 2777 2680 2663.00 2830 OPEN
30Jun16 SKSMICRO BUY 725 745 760.00 775.00 705 OPEN
STAUTS
CALLS
RATIO
TA+PB 18 59.25
SL+EXIT 11 40.74
TOTAL 27 100
One call on daily basis is given keeping view of short term
trading on closing basis.Time frame and expected % of return is
also mentioned with the suggested call.
This call are purely given on technical trading system generated
by the Technical Research Desk.Generally Expected Return on
investment is 5-6 % with time horizon of 6-7 days.Profit Booking
update is considered if on an average expected return exceed
3.50-4.00 % against Expected return of 5-6%Risk- Reward ratio
percentage wise depends on the volatility of stock Normally it
stands ( 3 : 9)
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