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Islamism, Religiosity and Fertility in the Muslim world
Eric Kaufmann, Birkbeck College, University of London/Belfer
Center, Kennedy School, Harvard
Religiosity
• Affiliation/Denomination (Do you consider yourself a member of…)
• Attendance (How often do you attend?)
• Religiosity (Are you a religious person?)
• Religious Traditionalism (Belief in Hell, Devil, Bible as word of God)
Different studies use one or more of these measures
Religiosity and Fertility
"One of the most central injunctions of virtually all traditional religions is to strengthen the family, to encourage people to have children, to encourage women to stay home and raise children, and to forbid abortion, divorce, or anything that interferes with high rates of reproduction." (Norris and Inglehart 2004)
Second Demographic Transition Theory
• van de Kaa 1987; Surkyn and Lesthaeghe 2004
• Lestaheghe and Neidert 2006
Thesis: As societies modernize, religiosity becomes a more important determinant of fertility
Studies on Religiosity and Fertility
• Adsera 2004 on Spain between 1985 and 1999
• Also finding a link: Lehrer 1996; Berghammer, Philipov, and Sobotka 2006; Kaufmann 2007, 2008
• Mixed Results: Westoff and Jones (1979); Frejka and Westoff 2006
Religious Traditionalism and Fertility
• Fargues (2000) and Berman (2000) on ultra-Orthodox Jews
• Hout, Wilde and Greeley (2001) on Evangelical Protestants; Sherkat (2001) on Mormons and Hispanic Catholics
• Berman and Stepanyan (2003) on Madrassa-attending Muslims
• Little else on Islamism
Source: ‘The Moment of Truth’, Ha’aretz, 8 February 2007
Decline of Liberal Protestants
• Based on affiliation (ie baptism for Christians)• Applying affiliation data to country demographic
projections
Past and Projected Global Religious Affiliation (World Religious Database)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Christian Muslim Hindu Nonreligious +Atheist
Other
1900
1970
2000
2025
coun
try
relig
tot fertility rate1.4048 7.1
.592294
.98574
Source: 2000 WVS and World Bank.
Religiosity and Fertility in Muslim Countries, 2000
Tanzania
Jordan
Egypt
Algeria
Bosnia
Iran
Azerbaijan
'95-97
Bangladesh
Albania 2000
Turkey
Indonesia
Pakistan
Morocco
Nigeria
Uganda
Albania '95-97
Is Islam Different?
• Most Muslim countries more conformist in religious terms (ie fewer seculars, less switching)
• Second Demographic Transition More Muted
• Puritanical Islam associated with cities, vs. rural heterodoxy/folk religion
Islamism and Fertility• ‘Our country has a lot of capacity. It has the
capacity for many children to grow in it…Westerners have got problems. Because their population growth is negative, they are worried and fear that if our population increases, we will triumph over them.’ – Mahmoud Ahmadinedjad, 2006
• ‘You people are supporting…the enemies of Islam and Muslims...Personnel were trained to distribute family planning pills. The aim of this project is to persuade the young girls to commit adultery’ – Taliban Council note to murdered family planning clinic employee, Kandahar, 2008
Attitudes to Shari'a and Fertility, Islamic Countries, by Urban and Rural, 2000 WVS (Muslims Only)
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.3
3.5
Str. Agree Agree Neither Disagree Str. Disagree
Ch
ildre
n E
ve
r B
orn
city > 100k
town < 10k
Source: WVS 1999-2000. N = 2796 respondents in towns under 10,000 and 1561 respondents in cities over 100,000. Asked in Algeria, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Jordan, Pakistan, Nigeria and Egypt.
But Islamism shows significant individual-level effects
Source: Westoff and Frejka 2007
European Islam: A Reflection of Things to Come?
Conclusions: Fertility
• At the individual level, religiosity and Islamism predict higher fertility
• At the country level, no compositional effects are evident
• Evidence for SDT effect in more 'modern' contexts, i.e. Cities
• We would expect a sharpened SDT effect with modernization
• Islamist population growth in Muslim settings appears to be a long-term process, unlike Israel, thus unlikely to affect politics until after 2050
• Future Research: projections of religious and Islamist populations for Muslim world, Europe, North America
• Own project: http://www.sneps.net/RD/religdem.html
• IIASA projections project: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/~terama/Relig.html
Less Fertility Good for Country v Islamic System of Govt
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
very good(N=896)
fairly good(N=578)
fairly bad(N=260)
very bad(N=43)
Islamic System
Les
s fe
rtil
ity
go
od
Agree
Disagree
Having an Islamic government, where religious authorities have absolute power
ARDA Youth, Emotional Energy, and Political Violence: The Cases of Egypt and Saudi Arabia Survey, 2005
Sharia as Law of Land and Desirable Fertility in the Country
Sharia and the Need for Fewer Children in the Country, Muslim Youth in Egypt and Saudi Arabia, 2005
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
v. important important somew hat imp less imp not imp
Sharia as Law
Fewer Children Better
Disagree
ARDA Youth, Emotional Energy, and Political Violence: The Cases of Egypt and Saudi Arabia Survey, 2005
Fertility, Religiosity and Islamist Voting, Turkey, by province, 2007
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%K
asta
mon
u
Kar
abük
Gire
sun
Ord
u
Bile
cik
Kar
aman
Küt
ahya
Siv
as
Ela
zig
Sak
arya
Mu?
la
Yoz
gat
Kon
ya
I?d?
r
Mu?
Ni?
de
Mal
atya
Koc
aeli
Yal
ova
Ank
ara
?sta
nbul
AK
P V
ote
, 200
7
AK vote 2007
Mosques per Pop
total_fertility_rate
Source: Turkish National Statistics 2007, and own calculations.
