White Flight in England? Opposition to Diversity and Mobility Decisions in Britain, 1991-2012 Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, Birkbeck College [email protected]@bbk.ac.uk;

White Flight in England?

Opposition to Diversity and Mobility Decisions in Britain, 1991-2012

Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris,Birkbeck College

[email protected]; [email protected]

http://www.sneps.net/research-interests/whiteworkingclass twitter: @epkaufm

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.sneps.net/research-interests/whiteworkingclass

White Flight?

-30

00-2

000

-10

000

1000

Cha

nge

in w

hite

Brit

ish

pop

ulat

ion

in w

ard

2001

-11

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000Change in minority population in ward 2001-11

White British Change and Minority Change, London, 2001-11

Save our Census!• The permission of the Office for National Statistics to use the

Longitudinal Study is gratefully acknowledged, as is the help provided by staff of the Centre for Longitudinal Study Information & User Support (CeLSIUS). CeLSIUS is supported by the ESRC Census of Population Programme (Award Ref: ES/K000365/1). The authors alone are responsible for the interpretation of the data.

• Census output is Crown copyright and is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland.

• The results presented are based on a test version of the LS database incorporating 2011 Census data. Figures may be subject to change when the final version of this database is released in November 2013.

Predicted Ward Minority Change among Inter-ward Movers, 1991-2011 (BHPS/UKHLS)

% Ethnic Minority in Ward a year ago

% C

hang

e in

Eth

nic

Min

oriti

es in

War

d

Simpson (2007) Method

Wards% White

Quintile 1 7554 98Quintile 2 726 87Quintile 3 288 73Quintile 4 180 57Quintile 5 102 34Total 8850 91

Toward diversityAway from diversity

0.1

.2.3

.4P

r(Q

c01_

11=

=-1

)

1 2 3 4 5white01quint

whbrit11=0 whbrit11=1

Predictive Margins with 95% CIs

Predicted Probability of Move Away from Diversity, Inter-ward Movers, 2001-11 (ONS LS)

Most Diverse Ward

Whitest ward

Prob

abili

ty o

f mov

e to

less

div

erse

war

d qu

intil

e

Ordered Logit of Change in White Quintile in the direction of % White, 2001-11. Inter-ward movers only. (ONS Longitudinal Study):

White Flight?:Yougov-ESRC-BBK Survey, August 2013

Moved To Whiter Ward past 10 yrs

Moved To More Diverse Ward past 10 yrs Sample

Not White British 53% 47% 47

White British 62% 38% 239

Total 60% 40% 286

Comfort with spouse of different race among ward movers, White British only (Yougov/ESRC survey)

To WhiterTo Diverse Sample

very comfortable 61% 39% 83

fairly comfortable 67% 33% 33neither comfortable n 57% 43% 46

fairly uncomfortable 64% 36% 11

very uncomfortable 76% 24% 25don't know 58% 42% 24Total 63% 37% 222

Cultural Amenities not Ethnocentrism

• “If the church bulletin board is where people advertise rooms for rent, blacks will rent rooms from blacks and whites from whites because of a communication system…correlated with color” – Thomas Schelling 1978

• White British family/friend/association networks and minority networks differ in England, affecting where people relocate once they decide to move

• Cultural amenities (food, recreation, religion) are also correlated with ethnic composition

Unconscious Segregation I: Social Ties

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Change in distance from mother and share of minori-ties in ward post-move, white British,

2009-12

Chan

ge in

% m

inor

ities

in w

ard

after

m

ove

Change in distance from mother (in scale points). Negative values repres-ent move toward, positive away from, mother

Source: UKHLS 2009-12

Unconscious Segregation II: Amenities

Whitest

wards

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Least white wards

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

'Very important' to self-identity, minority respondents,

by ward minority share, 2007-11

Ethnicity

Religion

% sa

ying

'ver

y im

port

ant'

for i

denti

ty

Whitest

wards

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Least white wards

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

'Very important' for self-identity, white British, by ward diversity,

2007-11

Neighbourhood

Religion

% sa

ying

'ver

y im

port

ant'

for i

denti

ty

Source: Citizenship Surveys 2007-11

Future Research

• Look at individual ethnic minorities to screen out friends & family effect

• Each ethnic group is relatively attracted to own area, i.e. Caribbeans to Caribbean areas, but white/minority appears to remain important

Documents

White Flight in England? Opposition to Diversity and Mobility Decisions in Britain, 1991-2012 Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, Birkbeck College [email protected]@bbk.ac.uk;