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Working Class Tories not Labour Traditionalists: why UKIP is damaging the Conservatives
Eric [email protected]
Twitter: @epkaufm
Data
• Understanding Society (UKHLS) – 3 waves of 40,000 people, 2009-12.– 1,188 UKIP supporters or voters– Lower sample, but concentrated 2009-onward– Longitudinal– LA and ward census data appended
• Local Election Data, 2010-12– UKIP results in 1006 electoral wards of 2940– Ward and LA census data appended
….
• British Election Study Internet Panel 2015, Wave 1– Feb-March 2014; Wave 2 May-June 2014 (Fieldhouse et. al)– 35,000 sample size– LA is lowest geographic identifier– Panel study, with second wave to come– LA level electoral data appended
Con; 44.4%
Lab; 10.3%
Lib Dem; 15.8%
UKIP; 10.2%
Green; 0.4%
BNP; 2.8%
Other; 1.1%
None; 10.8%
DK; 2.1%
Sources of UKIP 2015 General Election Vote Inten-tion
(by 2010 vote). BES 2015 wave 1
Nonvoter6%
Con47%
Lab13%
Lib Dem15%
SNP2%
Pl. Cym1%
BNP3%
Green1%
UKIP11%
Other1%
DK1%
Sources of UKIP European Election Support (by 2010 vote), BES ’15 Wave
2
Con; 24.2%
Lab; 9.9%
Lib Dem; 2.2%
UKIP; 38.2%
Green; 0.4%
BNP; 0.8%
Other; 0.8%
None; 17.8%
DK; 4.7%
Sources of 2014 UKIP General Election Vote Intention by 2014 Party Identity. BES 2015 wave 1
None Con Lab Lib Dem
11.5%10.0%
3.7% 3.6%
8.9%
16.4%
4.7%
8.8%
Share of 2014 UKIP Vote Intenders by
Party ID and 2010 Vote (BES 2015 wave 1)
2014 Party ID 2010 Vote
Nonvote
Tory
Labour
Lib Dem SN
P
Pl Cym BNP
Green
Respec
tUKIP
Other DK0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2014 UKIP Vote Intenders' Recalled 2010 Vote (BES Feb-Apr 2014, N = 20,
881)
DK Con Lab Lib UKIP BNP Green Celtic Nat
None Other0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
UKIP Voters & Supporters, former Vote/Support, 2009-12, Understanding Society, N (UKIP) = 417
Wave 1 to 2
Wave 2 to 3
Wave 1 to 3
2010 Vote Only (full data)
2010 Vote Only (multilevel
data)+Labour
Contextuals
+Attitudes +Labour Contextuals
+Attitudes
Beta S.E. Beta S.E. Beta S.E. Beta S.E. Beta S.E.
Age .017 .002 .014 .003 .014 .003 .007* .003 .007* .003
Personal Income -.001 .006 -.003 .009 -.002 .009 -.006 .010 -.006 .010Tabloid/Broadsheet .525*** .072 .550*** .082 .549*** .079 .164* .079 .158* .074Education level -.285*** .045 -.340*** .037 -.344*** .038 -.113* .050 -.124* .053Female -.336*** .040 -.414*** .086 -.416*** .085 -.445** .132 -.451** .131
2010 Tory Voter .477** .145 .241** .083 -.137 .163 -.115 .123 -.703** .230
2010 Labour Voter -.839*** .087 -.781*** .129 -.763*** .129 -.688*** .160 -.644*** .154
2010 BNP Voter 1.908*** .232 1.798*** .337 1.815*** .343 .850** .433 .895** .439
2010 UKIP Voter 2.641*** .163 2.575*** .173 2.579*** .180 2.028*** .261 2.038*** .275Labour % of LA Vote -.003 .004 -.009* .004Labour % of LA Vote x Tory voter in 2010 .011** .004 .017*** .005Immigration Cultural Benefits -.352*** .027 -.353*** .028Out of EU 1.721*** .101 1.724*** .102Satisfied UK Democracy
-.465*** .035 -.471*** .035
_cons -2.516*** .218 -1.929*** .197 -1.803*** .188 -.516* .215 -.133 .225
Pseudo R2 .11 .104 .105 .2586 .2601
N 18235 6595 6595 6025 6025
Method: Logistic, clustered on LA; also multilevel
Hartlepool
Hartlepool
HartlepoolHartlepoolHartlepool
HartlepoolHartlepoolHartlepool
Hartlepool
Hartlepool
WarringtonWarrington
Kingston upon Hull, City of
Kingston upon Hull, City of
Kingston upon Hull, City of
Kingston upon Hull, City ofKingston upon Hull, City of
Kingston upon Hull, City of
Kingston upon Hull, City of
Kingston upon Hull, City of
Kingston upon Hull, City ofNorth East Lincolnshire
North East LincolnshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth East Lincolnshire
North East Lincolnshire
North East Lincolnshire
North East LincolnshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth East Lincolnshire
North East Lincolnshire
North East LincolnshireNorth East Lincolnshire
DerbyDerby
Derby
Derby
DerbyDerbyBristol, City ofBristol, City of
PlymouthPlymouthPlymouth
PlymouthPlymouthPlymouth
PlymouthPlymouth
Plymouth
Plymouth
PlymouthPlymouthPlymouth
Plymouth PlymouthPlymouth
PlymouthPlymouthPlymouth
Swindon
SwindonSwindonSwindon
SwindonSwindonSwindonSwindonSwindonSwindonSwindonSwindon
SwindonSwindonSwindonSwindonPeterboroughPeterboroughPeterboroughPeterboroughPeterboroughPeterborough
Peterborough
PeterboroughPeterboroughPeterboroughSouthend-on-SeaSouthend-on-SeaSouthend-on-SeaSouthend-on-SeaSouthend-on-Sea
Southend-on-SeaSouthend-on-SeaSouthend-on-SeaSouthend-on-SeaSouthend-on-Sea
Southend-on-SeaSouthend-on-SeaSouthend-on-Sea
Southend-on-SeaSouthend-on-SeaSouthend-on-SeaSouthend-on-SeaThurrockThurrockThurrock Thurrock
Thurrock
Thurrock
Thurrock
Thurrock
ThurrockThurrockThurrock ThurrockThurrock
Thurrock
ReadingReading
SloughSlough
Slough
SloughSlough
Slough
SloughSlough
SloughSlough
SloughSloughSlough
WokinghamWokinghamWokinghamWokinghamWokinghamWokinghamWokinghamWokinghamWokingham
Milton KeynesMilton KeynesMilton KeynesMilton KeynesMilton KeynesMilton KeynesMilton KeynesMilton Keynes
Milton Keynes
Milton KeynesMilton KeynesMilton Keynes
Milton KeynesMilton KeynesMilton KeynesMilton KeynesMilton Keynes
SouthamptonSouthamptonSouthamptonSouthamptonSouthamptonSouthamptonSouthamptonCambridgeCambridge
Cambridge
Cambridge
HuntingdonshireHuntingdonshireHuntingdonshireHuntingdonshireHuntingdonshire HuntingdonshireHuntingdonshireHuntingdonshireHuntingdonshireHuntingdonshireHuntingdonshireHuntingdonshireSouth CambridgeshireSouth CambridgeshireSouth CambridgeshireSouth CambridgeshireSouth CambridgeshireSouth CambridgeshireSouth CambridgeshireSouth CambridgeshireSouth Cambridgeshire
Barrow-in-Furness
Barrow-in-FurnessCarlisle
Carlisle
CarlisleCarlisle
CarlisleCarlisle
CarlisleCarlisleCarlisleCarlisle
CarlisleCarlisleAmber ValleyAmber Valley
ExeterExeter
ExeterExeterExeterExeter
Exeter
Exeter
Exeter
Exeter
Exeter
ExeterExeter
Purbeck
Basildon
BasildonBasildonBasildonBasildon Basildon
BasildonBasildonBasildonBasildon
Basildon
Basildon
BrentwoodBrentwoodBrentwoodBrentwoodBrentwoodBrentwood
BrentwoodBrentwoodBrentwoodColchesterColchester
Colchester
Colchester
Colchester
ColchesterEpping ForestEpping ForestEpping ForestEpping ForestEpping ForestEpping Forest
Harlow
RochfordRochfordRochfordCheltenhamGloucesterGloucesterGloucesterGloucesterGloucester
GloucesterGloucesterGloucester
Basingstoke and DeaneBasingstoke and DeaneBasingstoke and DeaneBasingstoke and Deane
Basingstoke and DeaneBasingstoke and DeaneEastleigh
EastleighEastleighEastleigh
Eastleigh
EastleighEastleighEastleighEastleighEastleighEastleighEastleighEastleighEastleighEastleighFareham FarehamFarehamFarehamGosportGosportGosport
GosportGosportGosportGosport
GosportHavantHavantHavantHavantHavantHavantHavant
RushmoorWinchesterBroxbourneBroxbourneBroxbourneBroxbourneBroxbourneBroxbourneBroxbourneBroxbourneBroxbourneBroxbourneBroxbourneBroxbourneBroxbourneBroxbourneHertsmereHertsmereHertsmereNorth HertfordshireNorth HertfordshireNorth Hertfordshire
North HertfordshireNorth HertfordshireNorth Hertfordshire
North HertfordshireStevenageStevenageStevenageStevenageStevenage
StevenageStevenageStevenageStevenage
StevenageStevenage
StevenageStevenage
Three RiversThree RiversThree RiversThree RiversWatfordWatford
WatfordWatford
MaidstoneMaidstoneMaidstoneSwaleSwaleSwaleSwale
SwaleSwaleSwaleSwale
SwaleTunbridge WellsTunbridge WellsTunbridge WellsTunbridge WellsTunbridge WellsTunbridge WellsTunbridge WellsTunbridge WellsTunbridge WellsTunbridge WellsTunbridge WellsTunbridge Wells
BurnleyBurnley
Burnley
Chorley
ChorleyChorley
ChorleyChorleyChorleyChorleyChorley
Chorley
ChorleyChorleyChorleyChorley
HyndburnHyndburnPendle
Pendle
Preston
RossendaleWest LancashireLincoln
LincolnLincoln
LincolnLincolnLincolnLincolnLincoln
LincolnLincolnLincoln
West LindseyWest LindseyWest LindseyWest Lindsey
Great YarmouthGreat YarmouthGreat Yarmouth
Great YarmouthGreat YarmouthGreat Yarmouth
Great YarmouthGreat Yarmouth
Great YarmouthGreat Yarmouth
Norwich
NorwichNorwichNorwich
Norwich
Harrogate
OxfordOxfordOxford
Newcastle-under-LymeNewcastle-under-Lyme
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Newcastle-under-LymeNewcastle-under-Lyme
Newcastle-under-LymeNewcastle-under-LymeNewcastle-under-LymeNewcastle-under-LymeNewcastle-under-Lyme
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Newcastle-under-Lyme
WaveneyWaveneyWaveney
WaveneyWaveneyWaveney
WaveneyWaveneyWaveneyWaveneyElmbridgeElmbridge
ElmbridgeMole ValleyMole ValleyMole ValleyMole ValleyMole ValleyReigate and BansteadReigate and BansteadReigate and BansteadReigate and BansteadReigate and BansteadReigate and BansteadReigate and BansteadReigate and BansteadReigate and BansteadReigate and BansteadReigate and BansteadReigate and BansteadReigate and BansteadReigate and BansteadRunnymedeRunnymedeRunnymedeRunnymedeRunnymedeRunnymedeRunnymedeRunnymedeRunnymedeRunnymede
RunnymedeTandridgeTandridgeTandridgeTandridgeTandridgeTandridgeTandridgeTandridgeTandridgeTandridgeWokingWokingWokingWokingWokingWokingWokingWokingWokingWoking
WokingWokingNuneaton and BedworthAdurAdurAdurAdurAdur AdurAdurAdurAdurAdurAdurAdur
Crawley
CrawleyCrawley
WorthingWorthingWorthingWorthingWorthingWorthingWorthingWorthingWorthingWorthingWorthingWorthing
Worcester
WorcesterWyre ForestWyre ForestWyre ForestWyre ForestWyre ForestWyre Forest
Bury
BuryBury
BuryBury
BuryBuryBury
Bury
BuryBury
BuryBury
BuryBury
Manchester
Manchester
ManchesterManchester
Manchester
Manchester
Manchester
Manchester
ManchesterManchester
Oldham
Rochdale
Salford
Salford
Salford
Salford
SalfordSalford
SalfordSalford
Salford
SalfordSalford
SalfordSalford
Salford
SalfordSalford
StockportStockportStockport
Stockport
StockportStockportStockportStockportStockport
TamesideTameside
Tameside
TamesideTamesideTamesideTamesideTameside
Tameside
TamesideTameside
Tameside
TamesideTameside
TamesideTameside
Tameside
Tameside
TamesideTraffordTraffordTraffordTraffordTrafford
TraffordWigan Wigan
Wigan
Wigan
Wigan
Liverpool
Liverpool
Liverpool
LiverpoolLiverpool
LiverpoolLiverpool
Liverpool
Liverpool
Liverpool
Liverpool St. Helens
Sefton
Sefton
Sefton
SeftonSefton
Sefton
Sefton
Sefton
Sefton
Sefton
SeftonSefton
Sefton
Sefton
Sefton
SeftonSefton
Sefton Sefton
Sefton
Sefton
Wirral
WirralWirralWirral
Wirral
Wirral
WirralWirral
Wirral
Wirral
Wirral
Wirral
WirralWirralWirralWirralWirral
Wirral
Wirral
Wirral
Wirral
Wirral
Barnsley
Barnsley
BarnsleyBarnsley
Barnsley
Doncaster
DoncasterDoncasterDoncaster
DoncasterDoncasterDoncaster
Doncaster
RotherhamRotherhamRotherham
Rotherham
RotherhamRotherham
Rotherham
Rotherham
Rotherham
RotherhamRotherham
Rotherham
Rotherham
RotherhamRotherham
Rotherham RotherhamRotherham
SheffieldSheffield
Sheffield
Sheffield
Sheffield
Sheffield
SheffieldSheffield
Sheffield
Sheffield
Sheffield
Sheffield
SheffieldSheffield
Sheffield
SheffieldSheffield
SheffieldSheffield
Sheffield
SheffieldSheffield
SheffieldSheffield
Sheffield
Sheffield
Sheffield
SheffieldNewcastle upon Tyne
SunderlandSunderland
Sunderland
Sunderland
Sunderland
Sunderland
Sunderland
BirminghamBirmingham
BirminghamBirmingham
Birmingham
BirminghamBirmingham
BirminghamBirminghamBirmingham
Birmingham
Birmingham
Birmingham
Birmingham
BirminghamBirmingham
Birmingham
Birmingham
Coventry
CoventryCoventry
Coventry
Coventry
DudleyDudley
Dudley DudleyDudley
Dudley
DudleyDudleyDudleyDudleyDudley
DudleyDudleyDudley
DudleyDudley
Dudley
Dudley
DudleyDudleyDudley
Dudley
SolihullSolihullSolihullWalsall
WalsallWalsallWalsallWalsallWalsall
Walsall
Walsall
WalsallWalsallWalsall
WalsallWalsall
Wolverhampton
WolverhamptonWolverhampton
WolverhamptonWolverhampton
WolverhamptonWolverhampton
WolverhamptonBradfordBradfordBradfordBradford
Bradford
Bradford
BradfordBradfordBradford
BradfordBradford
BradfordBradford
Kirklees
KirkleesLeeds
LeedsLeeds
LeedsLeeds
Leeds
Leeds
Leeds
LeedsLeeds
Leeds
Leeds
Leeds
Leeds
LeedsLeeds
Wakefield
Wakefield
Wakefield
WakefieldWakefield
Wakefield
WakefieldWakefield
Wakefield
Wakefield
Barking and Dagenham
Barking and DagenhamBarking and Dagenham
Barking and Dagenham
Barking and Dagenham
Barking and Dagenham
Barking and Dagenham
BexleyBexleyBexleyBexleyBromleyBromleyBromleyBromleyBromleyBromleyBromleyBromleyBromleyCamden
Camden
CroydonCroydonCroydonCroydonCroydon
Croydon
CroydonCroydonCroydon
CroydonEalingEaling
EnfieldEnfieldEnfieldEnfieldEnfield
EnfieldGreenwichHammersmith and Fulham
Haringey
HarrowHarrowHarrowHaveringHaveringHaveringHaveringHavering
HaveringHavering
HaveringHaveringHaveringHaveringHaveringHillingdon
HounslowIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKensington and ChelseaLambeth
Merton
MertonMerton
Merton
Merton
Newham
RedbridgeRedbridgeRedbridge
RedbridgeRichmond upon ThamesSuttonSuttonSutton
SuttonSutton
Waltham ForestWaltham ForestWestminster
WestminsterWestminster
Westminster
05
1015
20
Labo
ur/C
ons
erv
ativ
e R
atio
of V
otes
in w
ard
0 1 2 3 4
UKIP/Conservative Ratio of Votes in ward
wards Fitted values
Labour/Conservative Ratio v. UKIP/Conservative RatioSource: Local Election Data 2010-12 (Plymouth Elections Centre)
UKIP-Tory vote ratio
UKIP-Labour vote ratio
DV: Labour-Tory vote ratio
Amber ValleyAmber ValleyAmber ValleyAmber ValleyAmber ValleyAmber Valley
Lincoln
Amber Valley
Lincoln
Amber ValleyAmber ValleyAmber Valley
LincolnLincolnLincolnLincoln
Amber Valley
Lincoln
Amber Valley
Lincoln
Amber ValleyAmber Valley
LincolnLincolnLincoln
Amber Valley
Peterborough
Thurrock
Harlow
Great Yarmouth
PeterboroughPeterborough
WatfordWatford
Thurrock
Southend-on-SeaSouthend-on-Sea
WatfordWatford
Great Yarmouth
Colchester
Waveney
Great Yarmouth
Watford
Waveney
Harlow
Southend-on-SeaSouthend-on-Sea
Peterborough
Harlow
Waveney
ColchesterColchester
Harlow Watford
Colchester
Harlow
Great Yarmouth
Harlow
Waveney
Southend-on-Sea
Thurrock
Peterborough
Great Yarmouth
ColchesterColchester
Harlow
Waveney
Southend-on-Sea
Colchester
Peterborough
Colchester
Peterborough
Waveney
Great Yarmouth
Thurrock
Great Yarmouth
Watford
WaveneyWaveney
Peterborough
Southend-on-Sea
Peterborough
Great Yarmouth
Thurrock
Waveney
Great Yarmouth
Peterborough
Waveney
Colchester
Thurrock
Peterborough
Harlow
Peterborough
Southend-on-Sea
Thurrock
Peterborough
ThurrockThurrock
Colchester
Peterborough
Thurrock
Waveney
Great Yarmouth
Thurrock
Southend-on-Sea
Peterborough
Southend-on-SeaSouthend-on-SeaSouthend-on-Sea
Waveney
Southend-on-Sea
Harlow
Thurrock
Colchester
Waveney
Peterborough
Southend-on-Sea
Great Yarmouth
Southend-on-Sea
Peterborough
Southend-on-Sea
Colchester
Peterborough
Colchester
Waveney
Colchester
Watford
Southend-on-Sea
Harlow
Great Yarmouth
Watford
Waveney
Colchester
Thurrock
PeterboroughPeterborough
Watford
Thurrock
ColchesterColchester
WatfordHarlow
Colchester
Great Yarmouth
Watford
Thurrock
Colchester
Thurrock
Colchester
Waveney
Redbridge
Barnet
Westminster
Hammersmith and Fulham
Enfield
HounslowEaling
HaveringBexley
Hillingdon
Hounslow
WandsworthWestminster
Hillingdon
Bexley
Enfield
Hillingdon
Harrow
EnfieldMerton
Havering
Barnet
HarrowHarrow
Bexley
Wandsworth
Harrow
Bexley
Westminster
Camden
Hounslow
Enfield
Camden
Croydon
Hounslow
Enfield
Croydon
Westminster
Bexley
Hounslow
Hammersmith and Fulham
Camden
BexleyBexley
Westminster
Hounslow
Hammersmith and Fulham
Croydon
MertonMerton
Harrow
Barnet
HounslowEaling
Wandsworth
EnfieldEalingMerton
HaveringWandsworth
Hammersmith and Fulham
Harrow
WandsworthHavering
Barnet
Westminster
Havering
Redbridge
Hillingdon
Havering
Hillingdon
Camden
Redbridge
Harrow
Enfield
Hounslow
Havering
Hammersmith and Fulham
Hillingdon
Ealing
Wandsworth
Hillingdon
MertonMerton
CroydonCroydon
Camden
Hillingdon
Redbridge
Ealing
Camden
Hammersmith and Fulham
Redbridge
HaveringBexley
Wandsworth
CroydonCroydon
Wandsworth
Harrow
Bexley
Barnet
Croydon
Westminster
Merton
Harrow
Enfield
Hillingdon
Barnet
Westminster
Camden
Barnet
Merton
Croydon
Redbridge
Westminster
Enfield
HounslowHounslowMerton
Wandsworth
Ealing
Harrow
Enfield
Havering
Hillingdon
Barnet
Westminster
Harrow
Hillingdon
Wandsworth
Harrow
Barnet
Havering
Croydon
Enfield
WandsworthWestminsterWestminster
Merton
Bexley
Camden
Merton
HarrowHarrow
Bexley
Barnet
Ealing
Hammersmith and Fulham
Camden
Croydon
Camden
Ealing
Barnet
RedbridgeRedbridge
Hounslow
Westminster
Harrow
Barnet
Westminster
Bexley
HarrowCroydon
Harrow
Merton
Westminster
Bexley
Westminster
Merton
Hammersmith and FulhamBarnet
Bexley
Croydon
RedbridgeRedbridge
HillingdonHillingdon
Ealing
Harrow
Ealing
BarnetBarnet
Croydon
EalingEalingEalingEaling
Hillingdon
Enfield
Hounslow
Redbridge
Croydon
Wandsworth
Bexley
Merton
Hammersmith and Fulham
MertonHounslow
Redbridge
Bexley
EnfieldEnfieldEnfieldMertonEnfield
Hillingdon
Hammersmith and Fulham
Hounslow
Hammersmith and Fulham
Hounslow
Wandsworth
Enfield
Croydon
Hounslow
HaveringWandsworth
Hillingdon
Camden
Redbridge
Barnet
Hillingdon
Wandsworth
Bexley
Enfield
HaveringBexleyBexley
Ealing
Croydon
Hammersmith and Fulham
Enfield
Croydon
Redbridge
Hillingdon
CamdenCamden
Wandsworth
Hounslow
Hammersmith and Fulham
Westminster
Bexley
Wandsworth
Harrow
Hammersmith and Fulham
Hounslow
Bexley
Redbridge
Merton
RedbridgeEnfield
Hillingdon
Hammersmith and FulhamBarnet
Redbridge
Hillingdon
Croydon
Camden
Hillingdon
Croydon
Barnet
Havering
Croydon
Havering
EalingMerton
Croydon
Hounslow
HaveringWandsworthWestminsterWestminsterWandsworth
Croydon
Ealing
Redbridge
Wandsworth
Redbridge
Barnet
Redbridge
EalingEalingMerton
Hammersmith and Fulham
Hounslow
Westminster
Ealing
Hillingdon
Ealing
Camden
Harrow
Havering
Redbridge
Havering
Camden
EalingEnfield
Camden
Ealing
Camden
Havering
Barnet
Merton
Croydon
Barnet
Harrow
CarlislePendle
Stockport
CarlislePendle
West LancashireWest Lancashire
ChorleyChorleyRossendale
Trafford
Chorley Pendle
South Lakeland
West Lancashire
Stockport
Rossendale
Trafford
CarlisleRossendaleRossendale Pendle
South Lakeland
StockportStockport
Chorley
TraffordTrafford
Stockport
Rossendale
West Lancashire
Chorley Pendle
West Lancashire
ChorleyChorley
South Lakeland
Chorley
West Lancashire
Pendle
Trafford
Stockport
Carlisle
West Lancashire
Pendle
South Lakeland
Carlisle
Trafford
Carlisle
South Lakeland
Stockport
West Lancashire
Pendle
West Lancashire
Trafford
West Lancashire
CarlisleCarlisleRossendale Carlisle
South LakelandSouth Lakeland
Trafford
Rossendale
Stockport
South Lakeland
Trafford
CarlisleCarlisle
Stockport
Rossendale
Stockport
Trafford
West Lancashire
South Lakeland
CarlisleRossendale Carlisle
Trafford
West Lancashire
RossendaleChorley
Stockport
South Lakeland
Stockport
South Lakeland
Chorley
Trafford
Stockport
West Lancashire
South LakelandSouth Lakeland
ChorleyChorley
West LancashireWest Lancashire
Pendle
West Lancashire
South Lakeland
West Lancashire
Stockport
Pendle
Trafford
Chorley
Trafford
Pendle
Trafford
Carlisle
West Lancashire
Trafford
Stockport
Trafford
Stockport
Trafford
Pendle
Stockport
South Lakeland
ChorleyCarlisle
Chorley
Stockport
TraffordTrafford
Rossendale
South Lakeland
CarlisleCarlislePendlePendle
Stockport
PendleChorley
South Lakeland
Stockport
Rossendale
Stockport
Chorley
Trafford
Swale
Adur
Southampton
Portsmouth
Basingstoke and Deane
Milton KeynesCrawley
Basingstoke and Deane
Portsmouth
Milton Keynes
Southampton
Swale
Portsmouth
Milton Keynes
Basingstoke and DeaneBasingstoke and Deane
AdurAdur
Portsmouth
Reading
SouthamptonSouthampton
Adur
Swale
Adur
Basingstoke and Deane
Portsmouth
SwaleSwale
Reading
Basingstoke and Deane
Milton Keynes
Southampton
Adur
ReadingReading
Crawley
Adur
Basingstoke and DeaneBasingstoke and Deane
CrawleyMilton Keynes
Swale
PortsmouthPortsmouth
Adur
Milton Keynes
Basingstoke and Deane
PortsmouthPortsmouth
Adur
Milton KeynesCrawley
Swale
Milton KeynesMilton KeynesCrawley
Adur
Crawley
Portsmouth
Reading
Milton Keynes
Reading
Portsmouth
Southampton
Reading
Southampton
Milton Keynes
Reading
Adur
Swale
Adur
Southampton
SwaleBasingstoke and Deane
Milton Keynes
Southampton
Basingstoke and Deane
Southampton
Crawley
Basingstoke and Deane
Portsmouth
Crawley
Adur
Swale
Portsmouth
Basingstoke and Deane
Reading
Basingstoke and DeaneBasingstoke and Deane
Southampton
Basingstoke and Deane
Reading
Basingstoke and DeaneSwale
Reading
Crawley
Reading
Milton KeynesMilton Keynes
Reading
CrawleyMilton Keynes
Southampton
Basingstoke and Deane
Milton Keynes
Southampton
Reading
SouthamptonSouthampton
SwaleBasingstoke and Deane
Portsmouth
Swale
CrawleyCrawley
Swale
Adur
Milton Keynes
Basingstoke and DeaneSwale
Southampton
Reading
Swale
Bristol, City of
Swindon
Weymouth and Portland
Swindon
Plymouth
Gloucester
Plymouth
Gloucester
StroudStroud
Gloucester
Weymouth and Portland
Stroud
Swindon
Bristol, City of
Weymouth and Portland
Bristol, City of
Gloucester
Swindon
Stroud
Weymouth and Portland
Swindon
StroudStroud
SwindonSwindon
Stroud
Swindon
PlymouthBristol, City ofBristol, City of
Stroud
PlymouthPlymouthPlymouth
Weymouth and Portland
Plymouth
Swindon
PlymouthBristol, City of
Gloucester
Bristol, City of Plymouth
Swindon
Stroud
Bristol, City of PlymouthPlymouth
Gloucester
Bristol, City ofBristol, City of
Swindon
Bristol, City of
Weymouth and Portland
Bristol, City of
Gloucester
Bristol, City of
Swindon
Stroud
Gloucester
PlymouthPlymouth
Weymouth and Portland
Bristol, City ofBristol, City of
GloucesterGloucester
Stroud
SwindonSwindonSwindon
Weymouth and Portland
Bristol, City ofBristol, City of
Gloucester
Plymouth
Weymouth and Portland
Swindon
Stroud
Swindon
Gloucester
Stroud
Plymouth
Weymouth and Portland
Stroud
Plymouth
Weymouth and Portland
Bristol, City ofBristol, City ofBristol, City of
Gloucester
Swindon
Bristol, City of
Weymouth and Portland
Gloucester
PlymouthPlymouthBristol, City of
Stroud
Gloucester
Swindon
PlymouthBristol, City of
Stroud
Dudley
Worcester
Rugby
Dudley
Rugby
Cannock Chase
Redditch
Cannock Chase
Rugby
Wyre Forest
Rugby
Dudley
Rugby
Tamworth
Wyre ForestWyre Forest
Rugby
Worcester
Dudley
TamworthWorcesterWorcesterRedditch
WorcesterRedditch
WorcesterWorcester
Wyre Forest
Cannock Chase
DudleyDudley
Rugby
Tamworth
Cannock Chase
Worcester
Rugby
Dudley
TamworthTamworth
Rugby
Wyre Forest
Cannock Chase
Dudley
Wyre Forest
Cannock Chase
Tamworth
Cannock Chase
Dudley
Cannock Chase
Wyre Forest
Dudley
Cannock Chase
Rugby
Dudley
Tamworth
Rugby
Redditch
Rugby
Dudley
Wyre Forest
Worcester
Dudley
Tamworth
Rugby
Wyre ForestWyre Forest
Rugby
Redditch
Dudley
Tamworth
Dudley
Tamworth
Redditch
Rugby
Worcester
Dudley
Redditch
Wyre Forest
Rugby
Dudley
Wyre Forest
Rugby
Wyre ForestWyre Forest
Worcester
RugbyRugby
Cannock Chase
Dudley
Cannock Chase
Worcester
Cannock Chase
Dudley
Redditch
Dudley
Redditch
DudleyDudley
Cannock Chase
Calderdale
North East LincolnshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth East Lincolnshire
Calderdale
North East Lincolnshire
Calderdale
North East Lincolnshire
Calderdale
North East LincolnshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth East Lincolnshire
Calderdale
North East Lincolnshire
CalderdaleCalderdaleCalderdaleCalderdaleCalderdaleCalderdaleCalderdaleCalderdaleCalderdaleCalderdaleCalderdaleCalderdale
North East LincolnshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth East Lincolnshire
-20
-10
010
Labo
ur E
dge
ove
r C
onse
rva
tives
in L
oca
l Aut
horit
y
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10Margin by which UKIP Trailing Conservatives in LA
UKIP in Labour-Tory Marginal LAs
UKIP harms Tories….but also hurts the Left?
• UKIP damaging Tories, but:
• Right-wing parties gain in combined share over time as UKIP share rises
• Canadian example ??
1999
2004
2009
2014
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Trends in EU Elections, UK, 1999-2014 Left Bloc
Right Bloc
