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Please see Disclaimer for analyst certifications and all other important disclosures.
Au
to &
Au
to A
ncillarie
s
Anish Rankawat Research Analyst, Auto & Auto Ancillaries
+91-022-42159100 [email protected]
In
stitutio
nal R
esearch
Company Update
India I Auto & Auto Ancillaries
03 March, 2021
ADD Price: Rs632
Target Price: Rs700 Forecast return: 11%
TVS Motor Co Ltd Double digit margin in sight?
Financial and valuation summary
After losing 100bps YoY of market share in FY20 in domestic two wheelers, due to underperformance of its motorcycle and moped sales, TVS as recovered most of it in FY21 with the help of mopeds sales amid strong rural recovery. While motorcycles continue to underperform, TVS has gained further market share in scooters. As schools, colleges and offices are expected to open up in FY22, we see scooters catching up the revival. Even, 2W exports have seen a sharp recovery, and sales are now up 3% in YTDFY21. Similarly, 3W exports have also recovered well. We expect volumes to grow by 18.4% CAGR over FY21-23E. Performance is improving on the operational front as well as the company reported 9.3% and 9.5% EBITDA margin in 2Q and 3Q this year. We expect this to continue even as commodity prices will act as a headwind. We expect PAT to grow by 50.6% CAGR for FY21-23E. We value the standalone business at 26x FY23 EPS, 10% higher than its long term average of 23.6x and we add TVS Credit business valued at investment value to it. Our SoTP base target price is Rs700 and we assume coverage with ADD rating.
We expect 18% CAGR growth in 2Ws over FY21-23E TVS is the only player in India with a presence in all forms of 2Ws – Scooters, Motorcycles, Mopeds, and EVs. The company has successfully established brands like Apache, Jupiter, Ntorq, etc. which have helped it to gain market share in the last five years. We expect these brands will push the company’s share further. These, along with exports have created a healthier mix for the company which will help it with better margins as well.
Exports demand has come back strongly Export sales volumes rose 20% in 3QFY21 despite the scarcity of availability of containers. The demand in export markets is robust as we have noticed for Bajaj Auto as well. For TVS, all its 2W brands have done well as per the management. Exports markets remain strong for the reasons of stable oil prices, availability of foreign currency, and stable currency. Export contribution to total volumes is seen at 27% in FY21 as compared to 14.4% in FY17. We expect it to be at these levels over our estimated period.
Higher growth calls for higher valuations Between FY13-19 TVS outperformed the industry with 11.5% volume growth, 17% revenue, and 21.5% earnings growth on a CAGR basis. During this period, its one year fwd. average PER was 24.5x. In our estimated period FY21-23, we expect 18%, 22%, and 50% CAGR for volumes, revenue, and PAT respectively. Due to higher growth, we value the standalone business at 26xFY23 earning which is 10% premium to its long term average of 23.5x and we add Rs28 per share of invested value in TVS credit to it. Thus we arrive at our target price of Rs700 and we assume coverage with ADD rating.
Market Data
Bloomberg: TVSL IN
52 week H/L: 660/240
Market cap: Rs300.4bn
Shares Outstanding: 475.1mn
Free float: 34.6%
Avg. daily vol. 3mth: 3,887,617 Source: Bloomberg
Changes in the report
Rating: NA
Target price: NA
EPS: NA Source: Centrum Broking
TVSL relative to Nifty 50
Source: Bloomberg
Shareholding pattern Dec-20 Sep-20 Jun-20 Mar-20
Promoter 57.4 57.4 57.4 57.4
FIIs 11.2 10.6 10.5 11.4
DIIs 19.8 20.2 20.9 21.2
Public/other 11.7 11.8 11.1 10.0
Source: BSE
YE Mar (Rs mn) FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E
Revenues 182,099 164,233 162,338 206,265 241,022
EBITDA 14,333 13,459 13,296 18,976 23,379
EBITDA margin (%) 7.9 8.2 8.2 9.2 9.7
Adj. Net profit 6,701 6,246 5,415 9,387 12,282
Adj. EPS (Rs) 14.1 13.1 11.4 19.8 25.9
EPS growth (%) 1.1 (6.8) (13.3) 73.4 30.8
PE (x) 44.8 48.1 55.5 32.0 24.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 21.9 23.6 22.9 16.7 13.4
PBV (x) 9.0 8.3 7.5 6.5 5.4
RoE (%) 21.5 17.9 14.2 21.7 24.1
RoCE (%) 16.8 13.5 10.5 15.9 18.5
Source: Bloomberg, Centrum Broking
40
65
90
115
140
165
Mar-20May-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Oct-20 Dec-20 Feb-21
NIFTY 50
TVSL
TVS Motor Co Ltd 03 March, 2021
Centrum Institutional Research 2
Thesis Snapshot
Centrum vs consensus Valuations
YE Mar (Rs bn) Centrum
FY22E Consensus
FY22E Variance
(%) Centrum
FY23E Consensus
FY23E Variance
(%)
Revenue 206,265 194,968 5.8 241,022 221,066 9.0
EBITDA 18,976 17,613 7.7 23,379 21,145 10.6
EBITDA margin (%) 9.2 9.0 20bps 9.7 9.6 10bps
Adj. PAT 9,387 8,544 9.9 12,282 11,006 11.6
Source: Bloomberg, Centrum Broking
TVS Motor versus Nifty 50
1m 6m 1 year
TVSL IN (1.9) 45.3 49.8
Nifty 50 2.1 31.0 33.6 Source: Bloomberg, NSE
Key assumptions Y/E Mar FY22E FY23E
Volume (Units) 3,687,670 4,176,673
YoY (%) 23.7 13.3
Revenue (Rs Mn) 206,265 241,022
YoY (%) 27.1 16.9
EBITDA Margin (%) 9.2 9.7
PAT (Rs Mn) 9,387 12,282
YoY (%) 73.4 30.8
Source: Centrum Broking
In our estimated period FY21-23, we expect 18%, 22% and 50% CAGR for volumes, revenue and PAT respectively. Due to higher growth, we value the standalone business at 26xFY23 earnings which is 10% premium to its long term average of 23.5x and we add Rs28 per share of invested value in TVS credit to it. Thus we arrive at our target price of Rs700 and we assume coverage with ADD rating.
SoTP Valuations Rs/share
Standalone EPS 25.9
Multiple (x) 26
Value 672
TVS Credit 28
Fair value (Rs) 700
P/E mean and standard deviation
EV/EBITDA mean and standard deviation
Peer comparison
Source: Company, Centrum Broking, *Bloomberg
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Mar
-15
Sep
-15
Mar
-16
Sep
-16
Mar
-17
Sep
-17
Mar
-18
Sep
-18
Mar
-19
Sep
-19
Mar
-20
Sep
-20
Mar
-21
P/E Mean
Mean + Std Dev Mean - Std Dev
5
10
15
20
25
30
Mar
-15
Sep
-15
Mar
-16
Sep
-16
Mar
-17
Sep
-17
Mar
-18
Sep
-18
Mar
-19
Sep
-19
Mar
-20
Sep
-20
Mar
-21
EV/EBITDA Mean
Mean + Std Dev Mean - Std Dev
Company Mkt Cap CAGR (FY19-21E) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) FY19
(Rs mn) Sales EBITDA EPS FY21E FY22E FY23E FY21E FY22E FY23E RoE (%) ROCE (%) Div. Yield
TVS Motors 300,445 21.8 32.6 50.6 55.5 32.0 24.5 22.9 16.7 13.4 17.9 13.5 0.6
Bajaj Auto 1,141,278 22.6 24.1 21.5 24.1 19.1 16.3 21.9 16.8 14.2 25.6 32.5 3.0
Hero MotoCorp* 694,516 16.0 22.0 21.2 23.8 18.5 16.2 15.9 12.3 10.7 26.9 NA 2.7
Eicher Motors* 711,294 25.0 36.1 44.0 49.5 29.6 23.9 35.2 22.7 19.0 19.3 NA 0.5
TVS Motor Co Ltd 03 March, 2021
Centrum Institutional Research 3
The year of the pandemic Gaining market share in 2Ws
FY20 was a forgetful year for TVS motors as it lost share in all segment of two wheelers. Overall the 2W market share declined by 100bps to 13.8% after gaining 300pbs over 5 years prior to that. It lost 70bps in motorcycles and 20bps in scooters. Mopeds also lost share in the overall 2W pie.
Mopeds declined by 28% YoY in FY20 vs 17-18% decline in Scooters and motorcycles mainly due to:
Weak rural sentiments especially in the southern markets where mopeds are popular and the region was impacted by weaker monsoons.
Increase in cost due to insurance and CBS plus heavy discounting in entry level bikes like Bajaj CT100 reduced the price gap.
In FY21, even though the industry is impacted by the pandemic, mopeds have done better and is on course to see growth. This is on the back of faster recovery in rural segments with better monsoon and better crop yields. Also, the technology upgrades with BS6 has made it a superior product with lower price increase as compared to entry level bikes. Discounting in the entry level bikes have also come off. Scooter market share has also improved with the help of demand for Ntorq and Scooty Pep. Ntorq is now 27% of total scooter sales of the company
We expect scooters to grow faster in FY22 driven by gradual opening up of schools, colleges and offices in the IT industry.
Exhibit 1: Gained market share back in FY21
Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking
Exhibit 2: Motorcycle share declined for the second year
Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking
Exhibit 3: Scooter share crossed 20% for the first time
Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking
Exhibit 4: Strong revival in mopeds
Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking
12.8
11.8
13.113.4
14.2 14.214.8
13.8
14.5
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
Mar
ket
shar
e (%
)
TVS share in 2Ws
5.5 5.5
6.2
6.7
7.0
7.37.4
6.7
6.4
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
7.5
8
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
Mar
ketr
sh
are
(%)
TVS Market share in Motorcycles
14.5
12.7
15.1 15.414.7
16.4
18.5 18.3
20.5
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
Mar
ket
shar
e (%
)
TVS share in Scooter5.7
4.94.7
4.4
5.1
4.3 4.2
3.7
4.3
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
Mar
ket
Shar
e (
%)
Moped share in 2Ws
TVS Motor Co Ltd 03 March, 2021
Centrum Institutional Research 4
Exhibit 5: Sharp recovery in monthly sales
Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking
Exhibit 6: Ntorq contribution improves
Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking
Exhibit 7: Lost share in premium segment
Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking
Exhibit 8: Apache sales trend
Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000A
pr-
16
Au
g-1
6
Dec
-16
Ap
r-1
7
Au
g-1
7
Dec
-17
Ap
r-1
8
Au
g-1
8
Dec
-18
Ap
r-1
9
Au
g-1
9
Dec
-19
Ap
r-2
0
Au
g-2
0
Dec
-20
Mo
nth
ly s
ales
Mopeds
17.2
26.0 27.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
FY19 FY20 FY21
Share of Ntorq in TVS scooter sales (%)
8.39.6
12.2
15.315.9
19.1 19.418.3
15.8
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
Mar
ket
shar
e (%
)
TVS share in Premium
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Ap
r-1
2
No
v-1
2
Jun
-13
Jan
-14
Au
g-1
4
Mar
-15
Oct
-15
May
-16
Dec
-16
Jul-
17
Feb
-18
Sep
-18
Ap
r-1
9
No
v-1
9
Jun
-20
Jan
-21
Apache Domestic sales
TVS Motor Co Ltd 03 March, 2021
Centrum Institutional Research 5
Inching closer to double digit margin
One of the biggest investor concerns with TVS was the amount of time it is taking to achieve double digit margins. It has been guided time and again by the management for last many years but it continued to miss achieving it. For the last 2 quarters TVS has surprised us with above 9% EBITDA margins and thus getting closer to the feat. This can be explained by improving mix as the contribution of Apache+Scooter+exports has reached to 68.4% in FY21 as compared to 39% in FY13. We expect this to remain at this level for next couple of years. Also, better cost management has contributed to the margins in FY21. Going forward, higher commodity prices and marketing costs will restrict the margins expansion to some extent. However we expect the trajectory to remain upwards.
Exhibit 9: Improving margin with improving mix
Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E
Sale
s M
ix
Apache -Domestic Scooter -Domestic Exports Mopeds -Domestic Others EBITDA Margin (%) (RHS)
TVS Motor Co Ltd 03 March, 2021
Centrum Institutional Research 6
Financials and Valuations TVS is the only player in India with presence in all forms of 2Ws – Scooter, Motorcycle, Mopeds and EV. The company has successfully established brands like Apache, Jupiter, Ntorq etc which have helped it to gain market share in last 5 year. We expect these brands will push its share further. These, along with exports have created a healthier mix for the company which will help it with better margins as well.
We expect volumes to be driven by strong recovery in scooter segment with strong brands like Jupiter and Ntorq. Strong demand in the Mopeds will sustain as rural economy outlook is positive. We expect 2Ws to growth by 18% CAGR over FY21-23E. 3Ws have recovered well owing to export demand. We expect domestic 3Ws to be better in FY22-23 with gradual opening up of schools and colleges. We expect 3Ws to grow by 27.7% CAGR over FY21-23E. Total volume growth estimate for FY21-23E is 18.4% CAGR.
Our revenue growth estimate of 21.8% CAGR for FY21-23E is ahead of the volume growth as we expect ASPs to grow with better mix and the company’s ability to increase prices to pass on the commodity price increase.
EBITDA margins in the last couple of quarters have been strong at 9.3% and 9.5% on the back of price increases, cost reductions, better mix, and lower marketing costs due to digital, and operating leverage. Most of these are expected to sustain going forward. However, sharp rise in commodity costs would act as a head wind. We expect Margins to be at 8.2%/9.2%/9.7% for FY21E/22E/23E.
We expect PAT to grow by 51% CAGR over FY21-23E led by strong operations and lower depreciation owing to lower capex in FY21.
TVS Motor Co Ltd 03 March, 2021
Centrum Institutional Research 7
Exhibit 10: Volume trend and assumptions
FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E
2W
Domestic 3,134,477 2,410,740 2,154,613 2,661,684 3,023,435
YoY(%) 9.0 -23.1 -10.6 23.5 13.6
Motorcycles 1,012,868 755,391 625,287 750,028 825,030
YoY(%) 10.5 -25.4 -17.2 19.9 10.0
Scooter 1,241,366 1,018,409 886,016 1,107,520 1,273,648
YoY(%) 12.9 -18.0 -13.0 25.0 15.0
Moped 880,243 636,940 643,309 804,137 924,757
YoY(%) 2.4 -27.6 1.0 25.0 15.0
Exports 622,019 678,841 704,221 853,465 954,838
YoY(%) 26.4 9.1 3.7 21.2 11.9
Total 2Ws 3,756,496 3,089,581 2,858,834 3,515,149 3,978,273
YoY(%) 11.6 -17.8 -7.5 23.0 13.2
3W
Domestic 16,709 11,934 8,354 13,784 15,851
YoY(%) 1.7 -28.6 -30.0 65.0 15.0
Exports 139,719 161,977 113,384 158,737 182,548
YoY(%) 69.9 15.9 -30.0 40.0 15.0
Total 3Ws 156,428 173,911 121,738 172,521 198,399
YoY(%) 58.5 11.2 -30.0 41.7 15.0
Total Sales 3,912,924 3,263,492 2,980,572 3,687,670 4,176,673
YoY(%) 12.9 -16.6 -8.7 23.7 13.3
Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking
Exhibit 11: Revenue trend and estimates
Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking
Exhibit 12: PAT trend and estimates
Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E
Revenue (Rs Mn) YoY (%) (RHS)
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E
PAT (Rs Mn) YoY (%) (RHS)
TVS Motor Co Ltd 03 March, 2021
Centrum Institutional Research 8
Exhibit 13: Margins to improve further
Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking
Between FY13-19 TVS outperformed the industry with 11.5% volume growth, 17% revenue
and 21.5% earnings growth on a CAGR basis. During this period, its one year fwd. average
PER was 24.5x. In our estimated period FY21-23, we expect 18%, 22% and 50% CAGR for
volumes, revenue and PAT respectively. Due to higher growth, we value the standalone
business at 26xFY23 earnings which is 10% premium to its long term average of 23.5x and
we add Rs28 per share of invested value in TVS credit to it. Thus we arrive at our target price
of Rs700 and we assume coverage with ADD rating.
Exhibit 14: TVS Motors historical one year forward PER trend, 10 yr avg is 23.6x and 5yr avg is 34.4x
Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking
Risks
Pandemic: As cases increase in certain parts of the country, regional level lockdowns could be imposed that could impact overall demand for the industry
Margins: We expect the cost saving measure and ability to pass on commodity costs increases to sustain margin growth. If the underlying demand is slower than expected, the risk on margin improvement will increase.
Exports: Quite a few of the export geographies depends on crude oil for their GDP. If oil prices drop below $50/barrel levels then these markets will suffer and hence their demand could get weaker.
7.9
8.2 8.2
9.2
9.7
7
7.5
8
8.5
9
9.5
10
FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E
EBITDA Margins (%)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Feb
-10
Au
g-1
0
Feb
-11
Au
g-1
1
Feb
-12
Au
g-1
2
Feb
-13
Au
g-1
3
Feb
-14
Au
g-1
4
Feb
-15
Au
g-1
5
Feb
-16
Au
g-1
6
Feb
-17
Au
g-1
7
Feb
-18
Au
g-1
8
Feb
-19
Au
g-1
9
Feb
-20
Au
g-2
0
Feb
-21
x
PE Average PE 1 SD -1 SD
TVS Motor Co Ltd 03 March, 2021
Centrum Institutional Research 9
P&L YE Mar (Rs mn) FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E
Revenues 182,099 164,233 162,338 206,265 241,022
Operating Expense 138,423 121,359 123,864 156,762 181,971
Employee cost 9,226 9,384 9,205 10,726 13,015
Others 20,118 20,031 15,974 19,801 22,656
EBITDA 14,333 13,459 13,296 18,976 23,379
Depreciation & Amortisation 3,993 4,890 5,361 5,814 6,466
EBIT 10,340 8,568 7,934 13,162 16,913
Interest expenses 806 1,022 1,067 1,042 967
Other income 75 321 369 425 467
PBT 9,610 7,867 7,236 12,545 16,413
Taxes 2,908 1,622 1,821 3,157 4,131
Effective tax rate (%) 30.3 20.6 25.2 25.2 25.2
PAT 6,701 6,246 5,415 9,387 12,282
Minority/Associates 0 0 0 0 0
Recurring PAT 6,701 6,246 5,415 9,387 12,282
Extraordinary items 0 (323) 0 0 0
Reported PAT 6,701 5,923 5,415 9,387 12,282
Ratios YE Mar FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E
Growth (%)
Revenue 20.4 (9.8) (1.2) 27.1 16.9
EBITDA 26.9 (6.1) (1.2) 42.7 23.2
Adj. EPS 1.1 (6.8) (13.3) 73.4 30.8
Margins (%)
Gross 24.0 26.1 23.7 24.0 24.5
EBITDA 7.9 8.2 8.2 9.2 9.7
EBIT 5.7 5.2 4.9 6.4 7.0
Adjusted PAT 3.7 3.8 3.3 4.6 5.1
Returns (%)
ROE 21.5 17.9 14.2 21.7 24.1
ROCE 16.8 13.5 10.5 15.9 18.5
ROIC 9.5 8.1 6.7 9.4 10.8
Turnover (days)
Gross block turnover ratio (x) 3.6 2.8 2.7 2.9 3.0
Debtors 24 30 27 24 27
Inventory 28 33 35 31 29
Creditors 72 87 102 86 74
Net working capital (3) 4 13 6 7
Solvency (x)
Net debt-equity 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.2
Interest coverage ratio 17.8 13.2 12.5 18.2 24.2
Net debt/EBITDA 0.9 1.2 0.3 0.9 0.6
Per share (Rs)
Adjusted EPS 14.1 13.1 11.4 19.8 25.9
BVPS 70.5 76.2 84.1 98.0 116.2
CEPS 22.5 23.4 22.7 32.0 39.5
DPS 4.2 4.1 3.5 5.8 7.6
Dividend payout (%) 29.9 32.8 30.7 29.5 29.3
Valuation (x)
P/E 44.8 48.1 55.5 32.0 24.5
P/BV 9.0 8.3 7.5 6.5 5.4
EV/EBITDA 21.9 23.6 22.9 16.7 13.4
Dividend yield (%) 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.2
Source: Company, Centrum Broking
Balance sheet YE Mar (Rs mn) FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E
Equity share capital 475 475 475 475 475
Reserves & surplus 32,998 35,706 39,457 46,072 54,750
Shareholders fund 33,473 36,181 39,932 46,547 55,225
Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 0
Total debt 13,779 20,843 21,843 19,843 18,843
Non Current Liabilities 597 929 1,031 1,144 1,270
Def tax liab. (net) 0 0 0 0 0
Total liabilities 81,567 92,031 108,623 107,866 122,090
Gross block 50,536 58,071 61,071 71,071 81,071
Less: acc. Depreciation (24,743) (29,071) (34,433) (40,247) (46,713)
Net block 25,793 28,999 26,638 30,824 34,358
Capital WIP 2,572 2,854 2,854 2,854 2,854
Net fixed assets 28,365 31,854 29,492 33,678 37,212
Non Current Assets 0 0 0 0 0
Investments 23,007 26,059 29,059 32,059 35,059
Inventories 11,759 10,389 13,343 13,563 15,848
Sundry debtors 14,141 12,814 11,119 16,388 19,150
Cash & Cash Equivalents 439 4,192 17,973 3,527 5,045
Loans & advances 0 0 0 0 0
Other current assets 5,982 8,305 9,218 10,232 11,357
Trade payables 29,239 28,864 40,029 33,907 39,620
Other current liab. 3,893 4,381 4,863 5,397 5,991
Provisions 586 834 926 1,028 1,141
Net current assets (1,397) 1,621 5,836 3,378 4,648
Total assets 81,567 92,031 108,623 107,866 122,090
Cashflow YE Mar (Rs mn) FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E
Profit Before Tax 9,610 7,867 7,236 12,545 16,413
Depreciation & Amortisation 3,993 4,890 5,361 5,814 6,466
Net Interest 75 321 369 425 467
Net Change – WC (2,405) 1,068 9,668 (11,875) 374
Direct taxes (2,264) (2,167) (1,821) (3,157) (4,131)
Net cash from operations 9,009 11,656 20,813 3,751 19,588
Capital expenditure (7,328) (8,379) (3,000) (10,000) (10,000)
Acquisitions, net 0 0 0 0 0
Investments (2,653) (3,052) (3,000) (3,000) (3,000)
Others 0 0 0 0 0
Net cash from investing (9,981) (11,431) (6,000) (13,000) (13,000)
FCF (972) 225 14,813 (9,249) 6,588
Issue of share capital (28) (1,274) 0 0 0
Increase/(decrease) in debt 3,410 7,064 1,000 (2,000) (1,000)
Dividend paid (2,005) (1,940) (1,663) (2,772) (3,604)
Interest paid (806) (1,022) (1,067) (1,042) (967)
Others 0 0 0 0 0
Net cash from financing 572 2,827 (1,730) (5,814) (5,571)
Net change in Cash (401) 3,052 13,083 (15,063) 1,017
Source: Company, Centrum Broking
TVS Motor Co Ltd 03 March, 2021
Centrum Institutional Research 10
Disclaimer
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Any such person shall be responsible for conducting his/her/their own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this document and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in the securities forming the subject matter of this document. The projections and forecasts described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the projections and forecasts were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results, and such variances will likely increase over time. All projections and forecasts described in this report have been prepared solely by the authors of this report independently of the Company. These projections and forecasts were not prepared with a view toward compliance with published guidelines or generally accepted accounting principles. No independent accountants have expressed an opinion or any other form of assurance on these projections or forecasts. You should not regard the inclusion of the projections and forecasts described herein as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of the Company, Centrum, the authors of this report or any other person that these projections or forecasts or their underlying assumptions will be achieved. For these reasons, you should only consider the projections and forecasts described in this report after carefully evaluating all of the information in this report, including the assumptions underlying such projections and forecasts. The price and value of the investments referred to in this document/material and the income from them may go down as well as up, and investors may realize losses on any investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of original capital may occur. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Centrum does not provide tax advice to its clients, and all investors are strongly advised to consult regarding any potential investment. Centrum and its affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Foreign currencies denominated securities are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have an adverse effect on the value or price of or income derived from the investment. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, the value of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency risk. 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The opinions and projections expressed herein are entirely those of the author and are given as part of the normal research activity of Centrum Broking and are given as of this date and are subject to change without notice. Any opinion estimate or projection herein constitutes a view as of the date of this report and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions, estimate or projection. This document has not been prepared by or in conjunction with or on behalf of or at the instigation of, or by arrangement with the company or any of its directors or any other person. Information in this document must not be relied upon as having been authorized or approved by the company or its directors or any other person. Any opinions and projections contained herein are entirely those of the authors. None of the company or its directors or any other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Centrum and its affiliates have not managed or co-managed a public offering for the subject company in the preceding twelve months. Centrum and affiliates have not received compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for service in respect of public offerings, corporate finance, debt restructuring, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger/acquisition or some other sort of specific transaction. As per the declarations given by him, Mr. Anish Rankawat, research analyst and and/or any of their family members do not serve as an officer, director or any way connected to the company/companies mentioned in this report. Further, as declared by them, they are not received any compensation from the above companies in the preceding twelve months. They do not hold any shares by them or through their relatives or in case if holds the shares then will not to do any transactions in the said scrip for 30 days from the date of release such report. Our entire research professionals are our employees and are paid a salary. They do not have any other material conflict of interest of the research analyst or member of which the research analyst knows of has reason to know at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of the public appearance. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, Centrum, its associated companies, their directors and employees are under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent Centrum from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or Centrum policies, in circumstances where Centrum is acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or any certain other circumstances. This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject Centrum Broking Limited or its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. Specifically, this document does not constitute an offer to or solicitation to any U.S. person for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction to any U.S. person unless otherwise stated, this message should not be construed as official confirmation of any transaction. No part of this document may be distributed in Canada or used by private customers in United Kingdom. The information contained herein is not intended for publication or distribution or circulation in any manner whatsoever and any unauthorized reading, dissemination, distribution or copying of this communication is prohibited unless otherwise expressly authorized. Please ensure that you have read “Risk Disclosure Document for Capital Market and Derivatives Segments” as prescribed by Securities and Exchange Board of India before investing in Indian Securities Market.
Ratings definitions
Our ratings denote the following 12-month forecast returns:
Buy – The stock is expected to return above 15%.
Add – The stock is expected to return 5-15%.
Reduce – The stock is expected to deliver -5-+5% returns.
Sell – The stock is expected to deliver <-5% returns.
TVS Motor Co Ltd
Source: Bloomberg
TVS Motor Co Ltd 03 March, 2021
Centrum Institutional Research 12
TVS Motor Co Ltd
4 Whether Research analyst’s or relatives’ have any financial interest in the subject company and nature of such financial interest No
5 Whether Research analyst or relatives have actual / beneficial ownership of 1% or more in securities of the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the document.
No
6 Whether the research analyst or his relatives has any other material conflict of interest No
7 Whether research analyst has received any compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months and nature of products / services for which such compensation is received
No
8 Whether the Research Analyst has received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report
No
9 Whether Research Analysts has served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company No
10 Whether the Research Analyst has been engaged in market making activity of the subject company. No
11 Whether it or its associates have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past twelve months; No
12 Whether it or its associates have received any compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months;
No
13 Whether it or its associates have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months;
No
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Disclosure of Interest Statement
1 Business activities of Centrum Broking Limited (CBL)
Centrum Broking Limited (hereinafter referred to as “CBL”) is a registered member of NSE (Cash, F&O and Currency Derivatives Segments), MCX-SX (Currency Derivatives Segment) and BSE (Cash segment), Depository Participant of CDSL and a SEBI registered Portfolio Manager.
2 Details of Disciplinary History of CBL CBL has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority from accessing /dealing in securities market.
3 Registration status of CBL: CBL is registered with SEBI as a Research Analyst (SEBI Registration No. INH000001469)
TVS Motor Co Ltd 03 March, 2021
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Centrum Broking Institutional Equities Team Details
Nischal Maheshwari CEO [email protected] +91-22-4215 9841
Research Analyst Sector E-mail Phone number
Anish Rankawat Auto & Auto Ancillary [email protected] +91-22-4215 9053
Gaurav Jani BFSI [email protected] +91-22-4215 9110
Milind S Raginwar Cement & Metals [email protected] +91-22-4215 9201
Shirish Pardeshi FMCG [email protected] +91-22-4215 9634
Ashish Shah Infra & Aviation [email protected] +91-22-4215 9021
Probal Sen Oil & Gas [email protected] +91-22-4215 9001
Cyndrella Carvalho Pharma [email protected] +91-22-4215 9643
Sparsh Chhabra Economist [email protected] +91-22-4215 9035
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