IISS news July 2014

The 13th IISS Shangri-La Dialogue, convened in Singapore from 30 May–1 June 2014, marked a step-change from previous events in the annual series. Following a year of tension among the major actors in Asia-Pacific security affairs, addresses by senior government figures were often more direct and pointed than in the past, and the subsequent discussions involving delegates were equally robust. In addition, the Dialogue was considerably larger, with approximately 450 government and non-government delegates, representing a 25% increase over the previous year.

Most of the 27 countries that routinely partici-pate in the Shangri-La Dialogue were represented

at ministerial level. There were particularly strong delegations from not only China, Japan, and the United States, but also Australia, Cambodia, France, Indonesia, Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore, the United Kingdom and Vietnam. There was also a European Union delegation, and several other countries’ high-level representatives were present as special guests of the IISS. In addi-tion to the usual top-level defence ministry and armed forces delegates, foreign ministries were represented more strongly than in previous years.

The keynote address to the Dialogue was delivered by Shinzo Abe, Prime Minister of Japan, maintaining the tradition of a head of government

speaking at the opening dinner. Introducing him, John Chipman, IISS Director-General and Chief Executive, said the Asia-Pacific is geo-politically highly charged. ‘It is a place where strategic swagger mixes with diplomatic caution; where solemn proclamations of principle intermingle with selective breaches of norms.’ The prime min-ister, Chipman noted, is seeking to stimulate and reform the Japanese economy with his eponymous ‘Abenomics’ policies, and has introduced the coun-try’s first-ever national security strategy that set out the argument for a ‘proactive contribution to peace’. Economic revival has provided the basis for a more extroverted Japanese foreign policy.

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The 13th IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2014

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Chuck HagelSecretary of Defense, US

Shinzo AbePrime Minister of Japan

Lieutenant General Wang GuanzhongDeputy Chief, General Staff Department, People’s Liberation Army, China

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Abe began by declaring: ‘Peace and prosper-ity in Asia, for evermore.’ One way to achieve this is through thriving growth and free trade. It is also imperative that peace and stability are ‘absolutely rock solid’ – and for this, it is essen-tial that ‘all countries must observe international law’. Japan, with its new proactive approach, intends to play a greater role in ensuring peace in Asia and the world.

While the Asia-Pacific has achieved tremen-dous growth, Abe said, too much of the resulting revenue is being spent on military expansion and arms. In addition, stability is threatened by weapons of mass destruction and by ‘attempts to change the status quo through force or coer-cion’. Japan is strengthening its relations with the US, Australia and India, and the prime min-ister last year visited all ten ASEAN member countries. He said: ‘Freedom, democracy, and the rule of law, which undergirds these two, form the Asia-Pacific’s rich basso continuo that supports the melody played in a bright and cheery key.’

Elaborating on his theme of the necessity for the rule of law, Abe turned to maritime secu-rity. The principle of freedom on the high seas is long established. What is now known as the international law of the seas was not created by any particular country or group, he noted, but was ‘the product of our own wisdom, cultivated over a great many years for the well-being and the prosperity of all humankind’.

‘The first principle’, the prime minister said, ‘is that states shall make their claims based on international law. The second is that states shall

not use force or coercion in trying to drive their claims. The third principle is that states shall seek to settle disputes by peaceful means…

I urge all of us who live in Asia and the Pacific to each individually uphold these three principles exhaustively.’

Japan strongly supported the Philippines’ call for a resolution to the dispute in the South China Sea that is consistent with these three principles, and also backed Vietnam in its efforts to resolve issues through dialogue. Abe said: ‘Movement to consolidate changes to the status quo by aggregating one fait accompli after another can only be strongly condemned as something that contravenes the spirit of these three principles.’ It is time, Abe declared, to return to the spirit and the provisions of the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, and to refrain from unilat-eral actions, coercion and threats.

Abe said it was unfortunate that an agreement he had concluded in 2007 with then-Chinese premier Wen Jiabao, setting up a maritime and air communication mechanism to prevent unexpected situations, had not been put into effect. ‘It is my firm belief that commenc-ing the operation of this agreement between our two countries will lead to peace and stability of the region as a whole.’

Abe commended ASEAN’s foreign-minister and defence-minister forums, and the East Asia Summit. He proposed that a permanent com-mittee be established to prepare a road map to bring renewed vitality to the Summit itself, and to make all three meetings function better

together. Within such a framework, Abe pro-posed mutual disclosure of military budgets, on the principle that ‘sunshine is the best dis-infectant’. He emphasised Japan’s support for ASEAN’s security, pointing to its provision of new patrol vessels to the Philippine Coast Guard, Indonesia and, in the future, Vietnam, as an example.

Meanwhile, Abe stated, Japan is altering its defence policy. Because no nation can secure peace by itself, ‘it is incumbent upon us in Japan to reconstruct the legal basis pertinent to the right of collective self-defence and to interna-tional cooperation, including United Nations peacekeeping operations. … It is precisely because Japan is a country that depends a great deal on the peace and stability of the interna-tional community that Japan wishes to work even more proactively for world peace’, he said.

‘Abenomics’, the prime minister said, goes far beyond economic policy. ‘It is nothing less than an undertaking to foster “new Japanese” who will shoulder the responsibilities of the coming years.’ Among other traditional qualities, he said, the new Japanese would be ‘determined ultimately to take on the peace, order, and sta-bility of this region as their own responsibility.’

Opening the second day of the Dialogue, in the first plenary session US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel forcefully challenged what he described as China’s ‘destabilising, unilateral’ behaviour in disputed waters of the South China Sea, at the same time underscoring America’s strategic staying power in the region. Anticipating scepticism about that strategic sus-

Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS

Shinzo Abe, Prime Minister of Japan

SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE TERRITORIAL DISPUTES CONFLICT PREVENTION JAPAN

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tainability, Hagel referred to President Obama’s recent speech in which had spoken of America as ‘the hub of alliances unrivalled in [the] history of nations’. This is a key element of American strength, Hagel insisted. Hagel’s speech had already given a tour of this system of alliances and security partnerships, including at least one historically ironic relationship: Hagel pointed to ‘emerging defence ties’ between the US and Vietnam.

Secretary Hagel insisted that the proclaimed American rebalance towards the Asia-Pacific ‘is not a goal, not a promise or a vision – it’s a reality’. He devoted many of his remarks to enu-merating the substance of that reality. Among the elements he listed: President Obama’s visits to the region including to Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and Malaysia; an agreement with the Philippine president for the rota-tional presence of US forces there; progress on negotiating the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement; enhanced capabilities in Korea; 1000 marines rotating through Australia; introduc-tion of the Joint High Speed Vessel in the Pacific; another submarine forward-deployed in Guam; and up to four Littoral Combat Ships to be deployed over the next three years in Singapore.

The most contentious part of Hagel’s speech was his challenge to China. China’s provoca-tive actions, he said, included restricting access to Scarborough Reef, exerting pressure against the ‘long-standing Philippine presence at the Second Thomas Shoal’, various land-reclama-tion projects in disputed seas and the movement of an oil rig into waters near the Paracel Islands.

Hagel promised that the US would ‘oppose any effort – by any nation – to restrict overflight or freedom of navigation’, and that it would ‘not look the other way when fundamental principles of the international order are being challenged.’ This includes American refusal to ‘abide by China’s unilateral declaration of an Air Defence Identification Zone in the East China Sea’. And he reiterated President Obama’s earlier state-ment that the disputed Senkaku Islands (called Diaoyu Islands by China) fall under the rubric of America’s mutual defence treaty with Japan.

Hagel also strongly endorsed the new activism in Japan’s foreign and military poli-cies under Prime Minister Abe. In particular, Hagel endorsed Japan’s efforts ‘to reorient its Collective Self Defence posture’ towards a more activist and less explicit pacifist defini-tion. However, the US Defense Secretary did emphasise American and Chinese ‘shared com-mitment to develop a new model of relations – a model that builds cooperation, manages compe-tition, and avoids rivalry’. He spoke specifically of upgrading military-to-military engagement through a variety of ‘joint exercises, exchanges, and other confidence-building measures’.

In the second plenary session, Japanese defence minister Itsunori Onodera said that his Prime Minister’s speech underscored Japan’s ‘commitment to peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific’. Japan’s security efforts, said Onodera – with reference to the move to reinterpret Japan’s post-war constitution – ‘do not mean any change to our path as a peace-loving nation’. The importance of this military-to-military

cooperation, Onodera said, was highlighted by the range of disasters and accidents in Asia over the preceding year. The organisation and self-sufficient nature of military forces makes them particularly useful, and it is essential to enhance military-to-military cooperation in humanitar-ian assistance and disaster relief (HADR).

However, for Japan to be ‘proactively involved in military-to-military cooperation’, he explained, the three challenges have to be addressed. The first is the establishment of a framework that helps countries offer assistance. Essential to this is joint planning in peacetime,

Chuck Hagel, Secretary of Defense, US

Mr Lee Kuan Yew (left), greets Shinzo Abe, Prime Minister of Japan (centre), as Lee Hsien Loong, Prime Minister, Singapore (right) and Chuck Hagel, Secretary of Defense, US (far right), look on

SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUEMILITARY COOPERATION DEFENCE POLICYUNITED STATES

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as well as a legal framework that allows the swift despatch of forces overseas. Agreements that enable armed forces to supply each other in HADR contingencies are also important.

The second challenge is to expand capacity-building assistance. Tokyo needs, Onodera said, ‘to make security assistance seamless by enhancing coordination between defence and development agencies’. The third challenge for Japan is in promoting equipment and techno-logical cooperation. One way Japan’s defence ministry could help transfer defence equip-ment and technology would be by establishing a ‘Defence Equipment and Technology Agency’.

Onodera said Japan perceives an ‘increas-ingly severe regional security environment’. Frank dialogue about crisis management is required. Agreement on the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea is an important step, and he said he hopes to see the conclusion of an effec-tive Code of Conduct for the South China Sea. Japan does not accept unilateral action that tries to change the status quo by force, and defence exchanges should be promoted to help generate a ‘norm’ of continual dialogue. Japan’s review of the right of collective self-defence would ‘con-tribute to the peace and stability of the region’.

The United Kingdom’s Secretary of State for Defence Philip Hammond said that mili-tary modernisation across the region brings opportunities, as well as threats, including ‘the development of more capable forces’ which might bring with it ‘the potential for greater burden-sharing in policing the global commons’. As Asian countries’ armed forces

develop, and deploy further from home, the ‘proximity of their respective forces, and the frequency with which they come into contact, is bound to increase’. Military cooperation is at the heart of the UK’s planning. As British forces return to a posture of contingency, ‘defence engagement’ is becoming embedded within the UK defence doctrine, so as to make ‘active use of our standing forces in peacetime to contribute to global stability through partnering, engage-ment and upstream conflict prevention and capacity building’. It is, Hammond concluded, in the interests of states in the Asia-Pacific to ‘seize the opportunity for greater cooperation and engagement, to help prevent conflict in the first place, to reduce the risk of miscalculation through unfamiliarity during periods of ten-sion, and ultimately to enhance interoperability with allies should the need for operations arise’.

Malaysian defence minister Dato’ Seri Hishammuddin bin Tun Hussein discussed the changing nature of the security environment. Globalisation and increasing participation in the global commons brings with it new threats to security, which demand new thinking, he said. Military-to-military cooperation has to be bal-anced with competing domestic requirements; stable geopolitics is, he said, ‘also driven by the stability of each nation state in and around the region’. There is greater benefit for all ‘if we stand solidly together’. This is also a lesson from the search for Malaysian Airlines flight MH370. Malaysia has always championed the idea that ‘a strong ASEAN is a stabilising influ-ence in the region’. While there is no need for a

‘one size fits all’ defence policy for ASEAN, it has to be united on several key issues. Common positions are needed on important issues like maritime security and major power relations.

In the third plenary session, Purnomo Yusgiantoro, Indonesia’s Minister of Defense, reminded delegates that Southeast Asia has plenty of positive experience in managing stra-tegic tensions. After the region suffered division and proxy wars during the Cold War, he noted, ASEAN had been built ‘brick by brick’. Conflicts have been resolved or brought under control. Maritime border disputes have been solved, although the region was not always given full credit for this. ASEAN’s members have trans-formed relations among themselves and with major powers. Indonesia has worked hard to improve relations with neighbouring states. Looking ahead, Purnomo said, the challenge is to ensure that power shifts at the regional and global level do not stoke tensions. There are causes for concern: rivalries, suspicion, historical animosity and territorial disputes. However, the region should also focus on new opportunities to build security. The search for MH370 was one such opportunity; work on the long-expected Code of Conduct for the South China Sea is another.

Purnomo called on regional states to reaf-firm their mutual commitment to common norms, in particular the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation. Observance of those norms as well as the Bali Principles, he argued, would help to create a stable regional order. He added that building trust is essential in the context of

Itsunori Onodera, Minister of Defense, Japan Philip Hammond, Secretary of State for Defence, UK Dato’ Seri Hishammuddin bin Tun Hussein, Minister of Defence and Acting Minister of Transport, Malaysia

SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE UNITED KINGDOM MALAYSIA JAPAN

IISS NEWS JULY 2014 | 5

military modernisation. Indonesia’s defence budget has grown significantly but it is not directed against anyone, the minister averred. Military modernisation does not equate to an arms race, but it is necessary to have a posi-tive regional security framework including confidence-building measures to ensure trans-parency. Conflict is not inevitable, he argued, because the region is large enough to accom-modate all powers, and the regional security architecture should accommodate this ‘evolv-ing dynamic equilibrium’.

David Johnston, Australia’s Minister for Defence, noted that the global trading system, based on a free flow of goods and services, has served Asia well since 1945. Regional states should strive to preserve unhindered move-ment through sea lines of communication, he said, adding that tensions should be resolved peacefully and in accordance with international law. As the twenty-first century will be the Asia-Pacific century, with rapid urbanisation and the rise of a huge middle class, there is a great deal at stake.

Key to capturing those gains, Senator Johnston argued, is successful management of the region’s social, economic and strategic transformation. While Australia takes no posi-tion on competing maritime claims, it does have a legitimate interest in international law, unimpeded trade and freedom of navigation, he said. The unilateral use of force or coercion to alter the status quo in the East and South China Seas is not acceptable, the defence minis-ter emphasised. He urged all parties to exercise

restraint and to clarify and pursue their claims in accordance with international law, including UNCLOS.

Johnston singled out the US for its role in underpinning regional stability for 70 years. Australia welcomes the US ‘rebalance’, but also Japan’s determination to make a greater contri-bution to regional peace and security. A central role for ASEAN and ADMM is likewise of great value, he added.

The search for Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 showed the benefit of greater military interoperability, the minister noted, but it also showed the need to step up collective efforts as it followed years of discussion about search and rescue. In order to manage future crises effectively, ‘We would all have to acknowledge that we can and must do better collectively’, he said. To that end, Johnston proposed that Australia should facilitate regular multilateral search-and-rescue exercises, focusing on practi-cal skills.

General Phung Quang Thanh, Vietnam’s minister of national defense, argued that, in light of continuing tensions and the danger of conflict, building trust is ever more important. He placed particular emphasis on major powers acting responsibly, observing international law and not using force or the threat of force to settle disputes. It is incumbent on major powers to take the lead in developing strategic trust, he added. The minister said it was important for decision-makers to remain calm, exercise restraint and put national interests in the con-text of regional and global interests. Without

restraint, a minor mistake could turn tension into conflict.

Vietnam’s relations with China have grown strongly, the minister noted, although a sov-ereignty dispute arose when on 1 May China unilaterally moved a drilling rig into an area that Vietnam regards as its EEZ. Vietnam is committed to the peaceful resolution of the dis-pute via UNCLOS and other means, and this is underlined by the fact that it has exercised restraint, eschewing the deployment of combat aircraft or warships. He demanded, however, that China should withdraw the rig and negoti-ate peacefully.

Opening the fourth plenary session on the Dialogue’s Sunday morning, Lieutenant General Wang Guanzhong, Deputy Chief, General Staff Department, People’s Liberation Army characterised China’s security concept for Asia in terms of a constructive, proactive and positive force aimed at ‘win-win’ for all. China, he said, pursues a path of peaceful development, upholds a ‘banner of fairness and justice’, advo-cates dialogue and cooperation and stands for coordinated progress of security and develop-ment. He enumerated China’s friendly military exchanges and cooperation with countries in the Asia-Pacific and the nation’s participation in multilateral defence and security cooperation. China is committed to handling territorial and maritime disputes through peaceful negotia-tions between the states directly involved.

Halfway into his remarks, General Wang departed from the pre-prepared script and criti-cised the speeches made over the previous two

Purnomo Yusgiantoro, Minister of Defense, Indonesia

Senator David Johnston, Minister for Defence, Australia

General Phung Quang Thanh, Minister of National Defense, Vietnam

SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUECONFLICT PREVENTIONDEFENCE POLICYFOREIGN POLICY

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days by Abe and Hagel, referring to a Chinese proverb that states that it is impolite not to reciprocate. Wang called those speeches ‘staged provocations to China’ that were pre-coordi-nated and ‘simply unimaginable’. In contrast to Abe’s indirectness in not criticising China by name, Wang said he preferred Hagel’s more direct approach. Yet Hagel’s accusations sought to ‘stir up disputes and trouble’ with ‘tastes of hegemony’ and ‘expressions of coercion and intimidation’. From those speeches and from Japanese and US actions, one could judge ‘who is really stirring up trouble and tension in the region’. China has never initiated disputes over territorial sovereignty and the delimitation of maritime boundaries, he said; it has only taken countermeasures against provocations by others.

Returning to his original text, Wang expressed the willingness of the PLA to work with other militaries to contribute more to regional and global peace and development. Specifically, he proposed: the promotion of mutual strategic trust by deepening dialogue and exchanges; supporting common develop-ment by strengthening security cooperation; promoting disaster relief cooperation; maritime cooperation and managing differences by estab-lishing security mechanisms. China is exploring establishing telephone links with ASEAN countries of the kind already established with Russia and the US. Finally, he noted that next year marks the 70th anniversary of the ‘victory of the world’s anti-Fascist war’. He said China will never allow ‘ruthless fascist and militarist aggression to stage a comeback’.

Russian Deputy Minister of Defence Anatoly Antonov emphasised that ‘Russia has always been, and will remain, an integral part of the Asia-Pacific’, where its primary role is to ensure peace and security. Most of the regional states, he said, have realised the need to create a durable system of regional security based upon ‘collective non-bloc foundations’ and principles of equality and indivisible security, alongside strict compliance with international law.

Cooperation is necessary, Antonov said, to cope with the threat of terrorism and the risk of proliferation of weapons of mass destruc-tion. Like General Wang, Antonov referred to a return of fascism: ‘This is what we see in Ukraine, exposed to the most violent face of so-called “colour revolution”.’ He encouraged countries to stand together to counter the new threat: ‘We have to figure out how to keep colour revolutions away from our home, the Asia-Pacific.’

Antonov decried unilateral attempts to estab-lish regional order, including through regional elements of global missile defence. Russia pre-fers to rely on coordinated efforts under the aegis of the UN and regional structures such as the ADMM-Plus. He noted that Russia has con-cluded agreements with four Pacific neighbours on preventing dangerous military activities near their borders and is working on similar agree-ments with Japan and North Korea. Looking to the future, he suggested creating a compre-hensive regional mechanism for preventing dangerous military activities. Voluntary trans-parency of military activities would also be

conducive to strengthening regional security, he said.

French Minister of Defence Jean-Yves Le Drian initiated the final plenary session by high-lighting the crisis prevention and management lessons learnt by France in recent years. The first is that crises cannot be managed effectively without political determination that disruptive behaviour will not be tolerated. This requires firm resolve by the international community, of the kind that brought Iran to the negotiat-ing table and would be necessary to engage with North Korea. It also requires decisiveness of the sort demonstrated by France in 2013 in Mali. Failure to engage there at the critical moment would have jeopardized the entire region’s security and posed a threat to Europe. Such decisiveness is necessary within a wider framework sanctioned by the international community at a global or regional level. Those taking the lead need to have credibility derived from legitimacy, and a capacity to implement concrete actions.

The second lesson is that crisis management requires an unwavering sense of responsibility in three specific areas: respecting the law; con-stant acceptance of the principle of dialogue, a need evident in the case of competing territorial claims in the Asia-Pacific region; and good faith and transparency, meaning that actions have to be in conformity with stated principles.

In applying these lessons to the Asia-Pacific, a key principle is freedom of maritime navigation and air traffic which is becoming increasingly important during this period of global ‘maritimi-sation’. Early resolution of disputes in the South China Sea is imperative. The time has perhaps come for a bold collective effort. Cooperation also has a clear role to play in regional crisis management, as does dialogue, an area where ASEAN is already doing much useful work in building a regional security framework.

In the final address, Singapore’s Minister for Defence, Dr Ng Eng Hen, observed that the 2014 Shangri-La Dialogue had seen some hard-hit-ting presentations, though these were preferable to the alternative. When it comes to dealing with crises in an agile way, a major problem is the impossibility of predicting where the next crisis will come. Just a month before Russia’s annexa-tion of Crimea, former French President Giscard d’Estaing had spoken about Europe having eliminated the concept of war. But if it is hard to anticipate crises, one certainty is that their impact in today’s interconnected world will be transnational. Much is being made of a grow-ing approximation between Russia and China,

Lieutenant General Wang Guanzhong, Deputy Chief, General Staff Department, People’s Liberation Army, China

Anatoly Antonov, Deputy Minister of Defence, Russia

SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE CHINA RUSSIA FOREIGN POLICY

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accelerated by the Ukraine conflict and seen by many as polarisation against those partnered with the US. But if such polarisation does exist it is not driven by ideology.

The minister noted that it is clear that the temperature has gone up in the Asia-Pacific region. At an earlier security summit this year, former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger observed that Europe is in a post-modern mode, reluctant to engage in military conflict, whereas Asia more resembles nineteenth-century Europe in not excluding that possibility. Was Kissinger right? Defence spending in Asia is rising, while regional safeguards and structures to mitigate disputes are still embryonic. Asia collectively does not have Europe’s ‘never again’ mentality towards conflict, though individual Asian states have their own never-agains: for China, the humiliations of the nineteenth century; for Japan, the baggage associated with World War II; and for ASEAN, colonisation and exploitation. The political challenge is to ensure that the circles of aspiration and ambition of individual Asian states intersect as widely as possible to enable protection of common goods. This requires

the building of more resilient mechanisms to forge consensus and political will; multilateral frameworks to promote trust; practical coop-

eration and interaction between militaries; and concerted action to deal with humanitarian assistance and disaster relief.

Jean-Yves Le Drian, Minister of Defence, France Dr Ng Eng Hen, Minister for Defence, Singapore

Special Session 1: THE CHALLENGES OF MAINTAINING AND MANAGING OPEN SEAS

There was substantial agreement in this ses-sion on the importance of maintaining open seas, given the crucial role that freedom of navigation has played in promoting prosper-ity, particularly in the Asia-Pacific: there are state, commercial and individual interests at stake. Confirming Beijing’s subscription to these common interests, one delegate noted China hosted six of the world’s eight larg-est container ports. Attention quickly turned to more contentious issues: managing free-dom of navigation within national Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) and in zones where claimed EEZs overlap. In discussing the prin-ciple of freedom of navigation, including for military assets, within EEZs, the session heard that the implications of challenges to this right extend beyond Asia. Some 38% of all ocean ter-ritory is within EEZs, as are all major maritime chokepoints.

The session discussed the usefulness of UNCLOS in managing overlapping claims to EEZs, in particular given the conven-tion’s lack of enforcement mechanisms. Amidst discussion of the relevance of inter-national law, one panellist was clear about

the principles at stake: whatever the com-peting claims, there is no place for the use or threat of force as a means of advancing national interests. One Southeast Asian del-egate spoke eloquently about the need for a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea, where there is a widening gap between the rhetoric of respect for the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties and the reality at sea. Another panellist raised China’s ‘nine-dashed line’, questioning its compatibility

with UNCLOS and its implications for the principles of open seas.

The session also discussed the potential for maritime cooperation. There was agreement that Humanitarian and Disaster Relief, and Search and Rescue provided good opportuni-ties for collaboration which could help to build trust among the armed forces of the region. The search for Malaysian Airlines Flight MH370 in early 2014 had provided an opportunity for shar-ing of information on an unprecedented scale.

The US Navy amphibious transport dock ship USS Denver passes along side the Singapore navy Endurance-class amphibious transport dock ship Resolution (US Navy/Geronimo C . Aquino)

SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUEINTERNATIONAL LAWTERRITORIAL DISPUTESNAVY

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Military capabilities of particular concern mentioned in this session included navies with extended operational reach, advanced missile technologies, unmanned aerial vehicles, and the military applications of cyber-technology, the deployment and use of which could exacer-bate inter-state tensions and create instability. However, there was agreement that advanced surveillance and command and control tech-nologies could also enhance regional armed forces’ capacity to respond to humanitarian emergencies.

The Chinese perspective highlighted the risks posed by nuclear-weapons prolifera-tion, including by North Korea and potentially non-state actors. Moreover, in the Chinese view, ballistic missile defences and US global conventional strike concepts are both destabi-lising. Militarisation of the global commons, particularly outer space and cyber-space, was also of concern. Both economic growth and insecurity are driving regional armed forces’ modernization, and more states are deploying air-capable ships and advanced submarines.

In the German government’s view, confi-dence-building measures including enhanced military transparency could help control regional tensions as Asian armed forces mod-ernise.

Panellists mentioned the relevance of new military capabilities to the search for MH370 which, at its peak involved eight countries’ ships and aircraft, coordinated by Australia. A wide range of advanced sea and air capabilities had been used, sometimes in unanticipated roles. The search benefitted not only from existing Five Power Defence Arrangements links, but also from previ-ous cooperation between the Australian and Chinese armed forces. It illus-trated how HADR and SAR operations require a multilateral approach. In Singapore’s view, the ADMM-Plus HADR exer-cise in Brunei in 2013 was

useful, but the importance of improving mili-tary planning and coordination in the first 24-48 hours of any HADR crisis was clear. To this end, Singapore had offered to establish a regional HADR coordination centre.

Some delegates asked whether military programmes might be harmonised in order to reduce intra-regional misunderstanding and tension. There was agreement that the ADMM-Plus provided an important frame-work for discussion, and that HADR would be an enduring role for regional armed forces.

Special Session 2: THE IMPACT OF NEW MILITARY CAPABILITIES IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC

An unmanned aerial vehicle alongside a US Navy aircraft carrier (Erik Hildebrandt/US Navy)

The session addressed the issue of coop-eration in preventing, mitigating, and responding to, climate change and its impact. Speakers and delegates agreed on a number of issues. Above all was the realisation that climate change is a key security regional secu-rity threat and a threat multiplier capable of precipitating future security problems. In par-ticular, climate change-induced humanitarian crises, population displacement, mass fatali-ties, resource scarcity, and food and water shortages could heighten social tension and inequality, exacerbating existing conflicts.

The session heard that climate-change has the potential effectively to ‘wipe out’ small states. In this regard, Pacific island states such as Tonga find themselves in a highly vulnera-ble position and needed international support to face the challenge of climate-change. This predicament underlines the importance of regionalism and the need for smaller states to join international debates as part of regional groupings, rather than individually.

Countries such as Bangladesh and the Philippines that have experienced the cata-strophic impact of climate-change have

developed mitigation and management strategies and built up a capacity to deal with natural disasters. Nevertheless, chal-lenges remain, including managing foreign assistance, as shown in the case of Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines. Additional com-plications lie in the need to enhance military capacity to intervene in HADR contingencies. There is also a need for increased informa-tion-sharing.

Some delegates claimed that HADR provides an opportunity for regional coop-eration even among states that might not be natural partners. However, it was admitted that the need to react rapidly in the event of disaster often resulted in national or bilateral initiatives coming to the fore. Some argued that legal formalities relating to the entry of foreign forces and nationals should be relaxed to allow quicker responses to natu-ral disasters. Others believed that in spite of bureaucratic requirements, the process of granting and deploying assistance was rela-tively swift.

Special Session 3: CLIMATE CHANGE, HADR, AND SECURITY IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC

The Pacific island nation of Kiribati has already been affected by climate change (UN/Eskinder Debebe)

SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE DEFENCE POLICY DEFENCE ECONOMICS ENVIRONMENT & CLIMATE CHANGE

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The themes of this session were the roles of security institutions in the regional order, and whether ASEAN possessed the capacity to play a more assertive part. Participants agreed that ASEAN – despite its inadequacies in decision-making and coherence – has emerged as a central actor in regional affairs. Amy Searight from the US Department of Defense said that Americans have moved away from old debates questioning the need for Washington to engage with ASEAN. The US now seeks to accelerate such engagement. The fact that US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel had visited Southeast Asia five times in just over a year testified to Washington’s interest in the sub-region. The US also viewed with satisfaction the multilateral exercises conducted by the ADMM-Plus in 2013.

Optimism about ASEAN’s prospects was qualified by calls for the group to play a more assertive role in regional security. There was clearly difficulty on ASEAN’s part in finding a coherent strategy that could help Southeast Asia and the wider region respond effectively

to China’s rise. The session heard that ASEAN should continue to engage with the major powers, and should establish a clearer commit-ment among them to principles that will shape the region’s strategic culture. This included an adherence to international law, peaceful dispute-resolution and open discussion of diffi-cult issues. Some delegates argued that ASEAN should push harder on thorny concerns such as concluding a legally-binding Code of Conduct with China in the South China Sea.

Delegates generally agreed that sustained progress on such proposals would prove critical in maintaining ASEAN as the regional order evolved. The grouping can no longer depend on lowest-common denominator type decision-making; rather, it needs sus-tained leadership to make progress on major issues. ASEAN would need to avoid the fate of the European Union, the collective weight of which in strategic terms is less than the sum of its parts.

Special Session 4: ASEAN AND THE EMERGING REGIONAL SECURITY ORDER

24th ASEAN Summit, Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar, 10-11 May 2014 (ASEAN)

Special Session 5: THE FUTURE OF NORTH KOREA: IMPLICATIONS FOR REGIONAL SECURITY

Panel speakers emphasised that the threat posed by North Korea’s nuclear weapons programme and evasion of international sanctions has evolved from a regional prob-lem into a global dilemma. Kim Jong-un is currently consolidating his dictatorship by placing close aides in key party, govern-ment and military posts. North Korea has amassed plutonium, continues uranium enrichment and has improved yield and min-iaturisation technology through three nuclear tests.

The nuclear weapons programme is not only inextricably bound to Kim Jong-un’s regime legitimacy but is also a vital source of state rev-enue. Kim has felt compelled to accelerate his nuclear programme after observing the fates of regimes in Iraq and Libya, and Ukraine’s loss of territory. The Kim family regime is pursuing a ‘blackmail-balance’ strategy consisting of a cycle of broken promises in return for conces-sions. All panellists agreed that the only viable solution was a negotiated settlement. There was some speculation about how Pyongyang might

respond to a five-party discussion in its absence about the security of the Korean Peninsula.

The US is uninterested in talks for their own sake on North Korea’s terms, but remains pre-pared to talk with Pyongyang if and when the regime indicates that it is serious about denu-clearisation. For this reason, the international community must show unity in exerting pres-sure on North Korea to comply with its UN obligation of irreversible, verifiable denucle-arisation. France and the US both stressed that China could exert greater pressure on North Korea: they did not accept Chinese assertions that all effort had been exhausted. The US is concerned that China remains a crucial source of high technology and materials for North Korea’s nuclear programmes. Inadvertent facilitation of North Korea’s proliferation activities and sanctions evasion also remains a concern. Concerted international pressure on the DPRK to choose the path of denuclearisa-tion should continue, and the US stressed that tightened sanctions were important to prevent North Korea from importing proscribed items and profiting from illicit exports.

A North Korean soldier at Panmunjom (Roman Harak)

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IISS–Fullerton Lecture: a conversation with K . Shanmugam, Singapore’s Minister for Foreign Affairs

On 30 June, Singapore Minister for Foreign Affairs (and also Minister for Law) K. Shanmugam gave 200 corporate leaders, scholars and journalists a tour d’horizon of Singapore’s foreign policy approaches to major strategic prob-lems. The republic’s foreign policy, the minister said in conversation with Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director of IISS–Asia, is based on a mix of critical components – a history of success as a nation-state, the ability to defend itself and an emphasis on international law as an avenue for resolving disputes.

Mr Shanmugam said that Singapore’s leadership took the world ‘as it is’, rather than taking an ‘idealistic view’. This enables the city-state to maintain ‘positive relations’ with many countries.

During exchanges with Dr Huxley and the invited audience, Mr Shanmugam took issue with the international media’s portrayal of China as a ‘big bully’, in light of China recently moving a US$1 million oil rig near Triton Island, which forms part of the Paracel Islands claimed by both China and Vietnam.

Stressing that he didn’t ‘hold the brief’ for China, Mr Shanmugam said that one has to ‘face the facts’. In the early stage of the Vietnam War in 1958 – when China lent support to communist North Vietnam – Beijing declared its ownership of the Paracels and their waters. At that time, North Vietnam agreed with the declaration.

That said, he noted that China did not do itself any favours by remain-ing ambiguous about its apparent ‘nine-dashed line’ claim to the South China Sea. The most rational way forward for China and ASEAN is to ‘try to manage conflict and make sure common sense prevails’ by forging a more formal Code of Conduct to establish norms of behaviour.

On the power balance in the Asia-Pacific, Mr Shanmugam noted that all of the region’s three major powers – China, Japan and the United States – have vast interests to protect. The US is intent on keeping its strategic footprint in the region, while China has ‘huge interests’ in mainland Asia. Yet the three countries also face massive challenges. The Chinese leadership is seeking to manage growing socio-economic inequi-ties, while Japan grapples with a falling fertility rate and a consequently ageing society.

While China has recently espoused the concept of ‘Asia for Asians’ – suggesting that the US should be excluded from Asia – Shanmugam said that it would be more rational for Beijing and Washington to arrive at a modus vivendi. Neither major power would want trouble with the other given their mutual dependence. However, the prevailing political atmosphere in China, Japan and the US might not allow for the rational understandings necessary for ‘give and take’.

Mr Shanmugam was equally dispassionate when it came to the issue of the ASEAN Economic Community and the goal of regional economic inte-gration by 2015. While such a project holds promise, ASEAN members are diverse in their levels of development and value systems and, as a result, cannot be expected to follow the model of the European Union. One has to be ‘realistic’ about this, said Mr Shanmugam, conceding that this word is prominent in his strategic lexicon.

A video and transcript of the Fullerton Lecture can be viewed here.Read a full report by William Choong and Alex Neill, IISS Shangri-La

Dialogue Senior Fellows for Asia-Pacific Security.

A Chinese coast guard ship passes Chinese drilling equipment located in waters off the Paracel Islands, May 2014 (Asahi Shimbun/Getty)

K . Shanmugam, Singapore’s Minister for Foreign Affairs in conversation with Dr Tim Huxley

FULLERTON LECTURES SINGAPOREIISS–ASIA

Survival: Global Politics and StrategyIn the August–September 2014 issue of Survival, David C. Gompert and Martin Libicki examine the risks of a cyber war between the United States and China; William W. Burke-White discusses the changing international legal order in the context of the Ukraine crisis; and Behlül Ozkan analyses Ahmet Davutoglu’s influence on Turkish foreign policy. Also in the issue: Leif-Eric Easley on US surveillance programmes and trust among allies; Antônio Sampaio on democracy and protest in Brazil; and Yogesh Joshi and Frank O’Donnell on India’s submarine pro-gramme and nuclear proliferation in Asia.

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Address by Li Keqiang, Premier of the People’s Republic of China

After over 30 years of reform, China has lifted more than 600 million people out of poverty, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang told an audience at the Mansion House. Addressing a special joint meeting of the IISS and Chatham House on 18 June, he outlined plans to sustain China’s growth by ‘inclusive development’.

Li began by calling for a new kind of urbanisation to cope with the hun-dreds of millions of rural migrants expected to arrive in cities in central and western China by 2020. He also stressed the need to redevelop deprived inner cities.

Li then said that modernisation of China’s industry would continue, allowing the country to produce more high-end goods and products. He also promised that Beijing would pursue green and low-carbon develop-ment and step up efforts to conserve energy and reduce emissions. Reform would continue to open China up to market forces, he added, pointing to the upsurge in new businesses following recent changes to the registration system as an example of this. Addressing fears that China’s growth was slowing, Li played down the chances of a ‘hard landing’ for the country’s economy and predicted it would meet the 7.5% growth rate target for the year.

Li went on to argue that China’s development was only possible with a peaceful international environment and stable regional security, denying that China had any hegemonic or expansionist goals. He emphasised that

China is ready to work with other countries, saying, ‘I believe as long as countries in the region engage in dialogue and negotiations with sincerity and in good faith, peace will be maintained.’

In conclusion, Li described the UK and China as ‘distant neighbours’, pointing to plans for the two countries to expand their trade and invest-ment. He added, however, that China–UK cooperation is not limited to the economic domain. Li welcomed moves to simplify the visa application system for Chinese visitors and noted that more than half the Chinese stu-dents in the EU study in the UK.

The address was followed by a brief Q&A with questions on climate change, China’s aerospace industry and prospects for further political reform. Watch the event on our website.

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang is greeted by Dr John Chipman, IISS Director-General and Chief Executive

US and Georgian soldiers board an aircraft in Helmand province, Afghanistan, July 2013 (USMC/Alejandro Pena)

KEY ADDRESSESCHINA

The End of America’s Long War in Afghanistan

On 25 June, Karl Eikenberry, former US ambassador to Afghanistan and commander of US-led coalition forces, gave his assessment of the future of Afghanistan following the imminent US withdrawal and the country’s recent presidential elections.

After illustrating some of the political, social and military conflicts plaguing the country prior to the intervention, Eikenberry outlined five different strategies the US had pursued in Afghanistan. These included what he described as the ‘light footprint’ from 2001–04; state building from 2005–08, although this effort suffered from a lack of resources as supplies were largely concentrated in Iraq; ‘the surge’ from 2009–11 and ‘the transi-tion’ from 2012–14.

Alongside several infrastructure and social care improvements, the former ambassador pointed to important progress achieved in the political arena: the development of a progressive constitution; the allo-cation of 25% of parliamentary seats for women; and the emergence of a unified, centralised democratic republic. Yet for the constitution to be successful, Eikenberry noted, institutions were required to effectively implement it.

The former ambassador also described ‘extraordinary progress’ in the expansion of media outlets, epitomised by the emergence of 76 TV stations. Eikenberry suggested that these are playing an invaluable role in keeping the country democratic.

Yet despite promising signs, Eikenberry admitted that the future Afghan president – be it Ashraf Ghani or Abdullah Abdullah – faced a ‘daunting list of problems’. These included what many perceive as Pakistan’s indirect support of the Afghan Taliban, the high cost (US$4–4.5 billion per year) of maintaining the Afghan national security forces, high unemployment (35%), declining foreign assistance and narco-traf-ficking.

This meeting took place at Arundel House and was chaired by Adam Ward, IISS Director of Studies. Watch the discussion on the IISS website.

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Assembling a circuit board (Dreamstime)

Growing rice in Thailand (Dreamstime)

Implications of Cyber Securitization and Militarization: A Private Sector Perspective

At an IISS–UK discussion meeting, Dr Jarno Limnéll, Director of Cyber Security at McAfee (Intel Security), spoke on the crucial role of the private sector in maintaining cyber security. In light of our increasing depend-ence on digital systems, he explained, cyber security has expanded from a centralised, government or military concern to a global issue impact-ing the everyday lives of individuals and daily operations of businesses. Noting that 80–90% of Western critical infrastructure is now owned and operated by private sector companies, he proposed an increased role for such entities in national cyber security efforts. He outlined a series of steps to address the digital threat, emphasising the importance of accurately assessing other countries’ cyber capabilities. He also recommended a focus on limiting human error by investing more in recruiting talented and con-scientious workers than in simply winning the ‘technological arms race’. The event, held on 19 May, was chaired by IISS Senior Fellow for Cyber Security, Eneken Tikk-Ringas.

Webinar: Food Security in Asia

Dr Monika Barthwal-Datta, International Security lecturer at the University of South Wales, launched her Adelphi book, Food Security in Asia: Challenges, Policies and Implications, at Arundel House on 21 May. Barthwal-Datta clas-sified Asian food insecurity as a worldwide problem, given the region’s large population and status as a major global food supplier. She identi-fied recent demographic and environmental changes that are disrupting food production, including the industrial appropriation of farmland and the shift in weather patterns due to climate change. She added that along-side an overall supply shortage, food security is often limited by physical, social, and economic barriers. All of these factors, she explained, have rendered farming an increasingly unviable vocation, further intensifying the crisis. Barthwal-Datta advocated a solution focusing on small farm-ing communities that would increase their involvement in agricultural policymaking, incentivise ecosystem protection activities, and invest in social services to improve farmers’ quality of life. Adelphi Editor and IISS Senior Fellow for Geopolitical Risk and Economic Strategy, Nick Redman, chaired the event. Read a full report or watch the presentation.

EVENTS CYBER SECURITY FOOD SECURITY

Women on their way to market, Mandalay, Myanmar (iStock)

Myanmar: Towards 2015 and Beyond

Myanmar is now at a very sensitive moment: the peace process with ethnic armed groups is in a delicate phase; the divisive 2008 constitution is being debated in parliament; and Buddhist nationalism pervades sectors of soci-ety with increasingly violent repercussions.

On 10 July Dr Matthew Walton, Senior Research Fellow in modern Burmese studies, and Andrew McLeod, Stipendiary Lecturer in Law, both at the University of Oxford, came to the IISS to discuss the nature of differ-ent challenges to Myanmar’s transition.

Dr Walton discussed the complex makeup of Burmese political identity, and how this affects the possible range of responses to inter-communal vio-lence. The incentive to incite such violence is only likely to increase in the lead-up to the 2015 election, while there are also numerous complications to the peace process stemming from the activities of ethnic armed groups.

McLeod said the 2008 constitution, which was always meant as a temporary document, plays a central role in Myanmar’s political reform process. While a move towards a more federal model appears likely, the military is unlikely to agree to amending those parts of the constitution

that ensure it a prominent role in Burmese politics, or the clause that pre-vents Aung San Suu Kyi from becoming president. Myanmar’s transition may yet lead to a more democratic society, but could also create a new form of authoritarianism, akin to other states in the region.

This meeting was chaired by Hervé Lemahieu, Research Associate to the Director of Studies, with Jens Wardenaer, Research Analyst, Armed Conflict Database, acting as discussant. An audio recording of the event is available here.

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Political Crisis and Instability in Venezuela

On 5 June, IISS Research Analyst for Latin America Antônio Sampaio chaired a discussion meeting on the attempts to solve the political crisis in Venezuela. Academic and El Universal columnist Daniel Lansberg-Rodríguez identified a failure on both sides to recognise and address their own flaws, citing endemic corruption and damaging economic policies within the government and a passive, ‘victim’ pathology among oppo-sition leaders. Both groups, he added, also promote overly simplistic narratives of Venezuelan domestic politics. While the government pre-sents a censored, ‘Panglossian’ perspective, opposition leaders denounce their opponents as irrevocably misguided and solely responsible for the country’s problems. Given this shared aversion to compromise, Lansberg-Rodríguez was unsurprised by the failure of negotiations between the two parties in April. He concluded that while current President Nicolás Maduro’s government has done little to improve conditions in Venezuela, widespread corruption and a weak and disorganised opposition limit prospects for significant political or economic change.

Adelphi Launch: Beyond Air–Sea Battle

Concurrent with the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, on 30 May Aaron L. Friedberg, Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University, launched his Adelphi book, Beyond Air-Sea Battle: The Debate Over US Military Strategy in Asia. The monograph examines the ‘rapidly evolving’ military dimension to the ‘emerging Sino-American rivalry’, a topic that found increasing relevance at the Dialogue as the US and Asia-Pacific nations discussed the future of the region.

Since the 1990s, the People’s Republic of China has heavily invested in military capacity building: its stockpile of conventionally armed ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and torpedoes would now allow it to target the infrastructure (for example, ports, air bases and surface vessels) ‘on which the US depends to sustain its presence in the Western Pacific’. Furthermore, the ‘ongoing modernisation of China’s nuclear forces’ significantly raises the stakes for the US rebalance to Asia. As Friedberg explains, the American presence in the region is largely contingent on ‘security guar-antees’ and ‘alliances’, and if China succeeds in ‘dramatically rais[ing] the potential costs’ of the US ‘pivot’, it may succeed in eroding confidence in the US ability to maintain a significant foothold in the Asia-Pacific.

This Adelphi traces the ‘evolution of the military challenge posed by China’, and examines the causes of the West’s seemingly belated response to China’s increasing military might. It also discusses the ‘alternative counter-strategies’ that are under consideration in the US, including the ‘Air-Sea Battle doctrine’.

The launch was chaired by Nicholas Redman, Senior Fellow for Geopolitical Risk and Economic Security, and Editor, Adelphi books.

Read a blog piece about the launch by Aaron L Friedberg and watch a video of the event.

Protestors in Caracas, June 2014 (Carlos Díaz)

The launch of North Korea’s Kwangmyongsong-3 satellite in 2012 (Getty/KCNA)

EVENTSVENEZUELAUNITED STATES

UN Sanctions on North Korea: Prospects and Problems

On 9 July 2014, the IISS organised a workshop in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia – the latest in a series of meetings discussing sanctions on North Korea in support of the UN Panel of Experts. The workshop brought together representatives from Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mauritania, Nigeria, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda, as well as Interpol and the African Development Bank, to explain the panel’s mandate, provide guidance on sanctions implementation best practices and highlight North Korea’s evasion meth-ods. The meeting concluded with an engaging discussion of challenges to regional implementation of UN sanctions on North Korea.

NON-PROLIFERATION AND DISARMAMENTEXPERTS NORTH KOREA

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The Iran and Syria Alliance: Holding Strong?

On 19 May Arundel House hosted Jubin Goodarzi, Deputy Head of the International Relations Department at Webster University, and Julien Barnes-Dacey, Senior Policy Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, at the European Council on Foreign Relations, for a discus-sion meeting centred on the evolving relationship between Iran and Syria.

In recent years the events in Syria have presented a complex challenge to the Tehran-Damascus partnership, an alliance that has played a significant role in the stability and political landscape of the region. As Dr Goodarzi noted, that significance has been misunderstood and misinterpreted. As Iran pursues a two-track policy of supporting the Syrian president Bashar al-Assad while hoping to remain part of the diplomatic effort to end the crisis, perception of the alliance between these nations must shift to allow for the intricacies of an Iran that is attempting to reconfigure its role both in the Middle East and on the world stage.

Mr Barnes-Dacey asserted that while Iran maintains a degree of confi-dence in Assad, the costliness of the current situation is far from ideal, in regards to security risks, military assistance, the humanitarian fallout and the already delicate political balance of the region. But crucially, the zero-sum game promoted by some Western powers is an equally unattractive option for a nation that has nurtured a relationship with Syria for some 35 years. Tehran desires an end to the crisis and, as the panel stated, the coun-try is willing to play a constructive role in achieving that, but on terms that enshrine its own interests in the region.

The meeting was chaired by Dina Esfandiary, Research Associate, Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Programme. A video of the event can be watched here.

Refugees at a camp in Atmeh, Syria, January 2013 (iStock)

US forces dispose of unexploded ordnance at Camp Fallujah, Iraq, 2005 (Bobby J . Segovia/USMC)

EVENTS SYRIA IRAN

Accountability and the Environmental Legacy of Armed Conflict

War not only creates death and destruction, it also frequently leaves a toxic environmental legacy. From the residues of Agent Orange herbicide in Vietnam and depleted uranium in Iraq to everyday chemical waste from military bases, environmental contamination during war makes it more difficult for countries to recover from armed conflict.

At IISS on 3 July, the Toxic Remnants of War (TRW) Project presented its new report on the long-lasting detrimental impact of harmful materi-als released during war – whether via alloys or compounds in munitions, harmful substances looted from unguarded industrial sites, noxious fumes from military burn pits or other processes.

With the effect of unexploded landmines and ordnance already widely documented, TRW and its ‘Pollution Politics’ report focus on poisonous and radiological substances. Project manager Doug Weir and researcher Aneaka Kelly said some militaries are recognising the need to treat hazardous materials more carefully or to devise alternatives. However, this is more out of an interest in protecting their own troops’ health or extending the working life of military facilities than in the wider public-health implications. This is an important omission, given the risks of birth defects, increased rates of certain cancers and damage to ecosystems.

The lack of accountability for war-time environmental damage is a major problem, and there are deficiencies in current treaty-based interna-tional law, especially because of the high threshold of damage required for it to take effect. From several case studies Weir and Kelly discussed, the only instance in which reparations had been ordered to be paid for war-time environmental damage was by Iraq for the destruction of property and the cost of putting out deliberately lit fires in Kuwaiti oil wells during the 1991 Gulf War.

The meeting was chaired by Dr Jeffrey Mazo, IISS Consulting Senior Fellow for Environmental Security and Science Policy and Consulting Editor, Survival, and can be listened to here.

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US Marines use experimental technology in a training area during RIMPAC 2014 exercise (USMC/Sarah Dietz)

ITS Aviere from the NATO Mine Counter-Measures Group berths at Burgas, Bulgaria during deployment to the Black Sea, July 2014 (NATO)

Rise of the machines? The increasing role of Unmanned Ground Systems in land operations

In recent years, the use of unmanned ground systems (UGVs) in land oper-ations has not been given the same media attention as unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), despite the increasing sophistication of the technology and its proliferation in both military and civilian spheres. At an IISS discus-sion meeting on 22 May, Brigadier (retired) Ben Barry, Senior Fellow for Land Warfare, redressed this neglect by examining the current status of these systems and positing future trends, as well as exploring the impacts and concerns that arise as these technologies develop and weaponised sys-tems play an amplified role.

Barry reasoned that UAVs and UGVs will continue to be used by armies for low-level tactical operations with increasing variety. Considerable com-mercial R&D investment means that the rapid development of autonomous civilian cars and trucks creates potential in the ‘long run’ for ‘completely unmanned full-scale ground vehicles, for the full range of land warfare roles’.

With the attention that ‘increasing autonomy’ engenders come the safety, moral, ethical and legal issues. Barry argued that if these issues arise in the civilian sector first, they will be easier for the military to handle, and indeed, ‘it will be quite hard to argue that civilian technol-ogy should not be transferred over to the military, particularly where it saves lives’. Barry highlighted the continuing relevance in this context of the Law of Armed Conflict (LOAC). While these issues merit discussion, it is important to note that even if Western nations have ‘some scruples’ over ‘completely autonomous unmanned systems, especially if they are

armed’, other countries in the world may have no such reservations. This consideration makes it likely that unmanned systems will continue to pro-liferate worldwide.

The event was chaired by Alexander Nicoll, Senior Fellow for Geo-economics and Defence. Read a follow-up blog post and listen to a recording of the event.

DEFENCE TECHNOLOGY DEFENCE AND MILITARY ANALYSISEXPERTS

The Changing International Order and NATOOn 16 June IISS welcomed Dr Andrew Murrison MP, Minister for International Security Strategy, who delivered a keynote address as an opener to a series of NATO-focused IISS workshops and discussion meetings, taking place in the run-up to the NATO Summit Wales 2014 in September.

Murrison presented a clear agenda for the future of NATO. Laying out a series of propositions, the minister first advocated strong investment in maritime defence, reasoning that ‘we certainly need to recapture some-thing of the strong contingent maritime capability of the 1980s’ in light of recent aggression and increasing tensions.

Secondly, although, as he acknowledged, ‘appetite for intervention has diminished’ since Iraq and Afghanistan, the countries of NATO must continue to partner investment with a clear strategic vision. Murrison reit-erated the notion that ambiguity of intent can result in both a breakdown in relations and escalation to conflict, as the recent example of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the resultant situation in Ukraine demonstrates. ‘NATO’s core purpose, its badge and its burden’, remains the ‘solemnity’ of Article V and the pledge of collective self-defence. To this end, Murrison espoused contingency planning, and crucially, the need for any and all capacity building to be part of a move to ‘reinvigorate and revitalise our network of alliances and groupings’. Integrating national resources can create flexibility and allow for more rapid response, which is vital in

a world facing the reverberations of the US pivot to Asia, the end of the International Security Assistance Force’s presence in Afghanistan, and the continuing squeeze on defence budgets.

This event was chaired by Alex Nicoll, Senior Fellow for Geo-economics and Defence. A video including the Q&A session can be watched here.

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India’s Maritime Security: Challenges and Opportunities

On 16 June, Vice President of the Indian Maritime Foundation Commodore (retired) A.J. Singh discussed the future of Indian maritime security at an IISS-UK event chaired by Senior Fellow for South Asia Rahul Roy-Chaudhury. Among many domestic concerns, Singh pointed to India’s underdeveloped industrial base, which leaves the country reli-ant on imported materials to build up its navy. He also noted the effects of chronic underfunding, which continue to delay naval expansion pro-grammes, often rendering new ships technologically obsolete by the time they have been completed. Externally, Singh identified Chinese regional expansion as one of India’s primary concerns, as this is likely to initiate competition for naval bases, trade routes, and seabed resources. He also cited the proximity of several declared and undeclared nuclear states as another key threat to regional stability. Yet despite these challenges, Singh expressed optimism in light of maritime security being declared a ‘top pri-ority’ by the new Modi government. India, he declared, is ‘on the cusp of fulfilling its manifest destiny as a regional power’. Listen to a recording of the event on our website.

India’s New Modi Government: What to Expect on Foreign and Security Policies

IISS Senior Fellow for South Asia Rahul Roy-Chaudhury spoke on newly elected Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at a 19 June discussion meeting held at Arundel House. The event, chaired by IISS Director for Transnational Threats and Political Risk Nigel Inkster, saw Roy-Chaudhury present his foreign and security policy predictions for the new government. He identified several indications that Modi, whose electoral mandate was evident through his landslide victory, would advocate a bolder approach to both issues. However, Roy-Chaudhury also noted that Modi’s capacity to pursue such a course would be significantly affected by the success of his domestic policies. Support for more assertive foreign and security policies would depend, he explained, on the extent to which Modi is able to improve key internal issues such as slow economic development and inefficient governance methods. Read the full transcript or watch the event on the IISS website.

The Accidental Prime Minister: The Making and Unmaking of Monmohan Singh

IISS Director for Geo-Economics and Strategy Dr Sanjaya Baru spoke on his recent book, The Accidental Prime Minister, at an 8 July discussion meet-ing held at Arundel House. The event, chaired by IISS Senior Fellow for South Asia Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, saw Baru explore why the government of former Indian Prime Minister Monmohan Singh became so unpopular during his second term (2009–14), despite its impressive re-election vic-tory. He revealed that although Singh had introduced successful foreign and economic policies during his first term, his failure to sustain high eco-nomic growth and tackle high-level corruption in his second contributed to his defeat in 2014. These concerns allowed Narendra Modi of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to successfully project himself as a strong national leader, meeting the aspirations of a new generation of young voters unhappy with

Singh’s weak second-term leadership. Baru noted that Modi’s victory and the decline of Sonia Gandhi’s Congress Party had marked the emergence of a ‘Second Republic’ in India, in which the ideas and policies of Modi and the BJP will replace those defined by the Congress Party over the past seven decades. Watch the event on our website.

India’s two aircraft carriers: INS Viraat (behind) and INS Vikramaditya (Indian navy)

Narendra Modi and other BJP leaders at an election rally, West Bengal (iStock/SaikatP)

Construction workers and their children returning to temporary dwellings in New Delhi (iStock/Daniel Berehulak)

SOUTH ASIA EXPERTSPAKISTAN CONFLICT PREVENTIONINDIA

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Imperatives of Stability in South Asia

IISS Visiting Fellow for South Asia (Strategic Affairs) Brigadier Zahir Kazmi examined the region’s key security concerns at a 3 July discussion meeting held at Arundel House. Kazmi noted that while both India and Pakistan consider nuclear weapons a factor of stability in their relation-ship, the potential for crisis and conflict cannot be completely ruled out. Reducing this risk, he explained, is contingent on political, military and multilateral nuclear-diplomacy imperatives. In the first instance, Kazmi emphasised the necessity of breaking the political stalemate to allow for reasonable discussion and compromise, rather than relying solely on nuclear deterrence to prevent the escalation of bilateral tensions. Militarily, he warned against efforts to circumvent established nuclear deterrence pol-icies in an attempt to allow for strike action below established thresholds.

Lastly, Kazmi advocated the induction of both India and Pakistan into the global nuclear non-proliferation regime by providing both countries with non-discriminatory and uniform criteria-based access to peaceful nuclear technology. The event was chaired by Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, IISS Senior Fellow for South Asia.

Pakistan: Fostering Regional Cooperation and Stability

At a 7 July event, Amer Hashmi, advisor at Islamabad’s National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST) and President of the NUST Global Think Tank Network (GTTN), examined South Asia’s potential for comprehensive development. IISS Senior Fellow for South Asia Rahul Roy-Chaudhury chaired the discussion at Arundel House. Hashmi argued that Pakistan is actively contributing to the strength-ening of South Asian security and stability through mature diplomacy

distinguished by a continuing commitment to the peaceful resolution of regional differences. These efforts, he added, are being reinforced by the country’s on-going democratic transition, new civil-military alliance, and dedication to eliminating terrorist activities from its soil.

Hashmi also identified positive domestic and regional trends that complement this commitment to stability, including a youth bulge, rapid urbanization, and the spread of education. He concluded that the para-digm of power maximization dominating international relations must be transcended in South Asia. This, he argued, would facilitate devel-opment by addressing the friction produced by regional and domestic disparities.

Listen to an audio recording of the event.

Pakistani IRBMs at a defence exhibition in Karachi (Wikipedia)

A rally for the missing Chibok school girls in Lagos, Nigeria, May 2014 (Pius Utomi/Getty)

SOUTH ASIAEXPERTS ELECTIONSTERRORISM AND SECURITY

#BringBackOurGirls: The Incident That Put Boko Haram on the MapFollowing the April abduction of over 200 girls by Boko Haram Islamists in northern Nigeria, international outrage led to an unprecedented social media campaign and several world leaders offered to assist in Nigeria’s recovery efforts.

At a joint event hosted by the new IISS Security and Development Programme and Women in International Security–UK (WIIS–UK), Virginia Comolli, IISS Research Fellow for Security and Development; Paul Edwards, Head of Political Section, British High Commission, Abuja and Bala Mohammed Liman, PhD Candidate, School of Oriental and African Studies, analysed the incident and its broader reper-cussions, including the further weakening of President Jonathan’s credibility.

The panel discussed the role of foreign partners, particularly the United Kingdom and the United States, in attempting to resolve the situation in Nigeria. This crisis goes well beyond the recent abductions to include a deadly on-going insurgency campaign in the northeast of the country and deepening widespread political and social tensions that are unlikely to

fade ahead of the 2015 presidential elections. The discussion, held on 21 May, was off-the-record.

SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT

18 | JULY 2014 IISS NEWS

Is there an Arms Race in Asia?

The IISS–US hosted Christian Le Mière, IISS Senior Fellow for Naval Forces and Maritime Security and Douglas Paal, Vice President for Studies and Director of the Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace on 26 June. The two discussed trends of increased military procure-ment in Asia, and specifically, the implications of the renewed US focus on the region.

According to Le Mière, an ‘arms race’ implies competition in military procurement between nation states with no specific end goals, which is

often driven by security dilemmas—but that is not necessarily what is currently being witnessed in the Asian context. While defence spending has grown in Asia, defence spending in terms of GDP across the region remains relatively limited. In addition, the nature of Asian state relations is counterintuitive to the concept of a regional arms race because there are different bilateral relationships, and no single relationship dictates the dynamic in the region. Indeed, China’s assertiveness has pushed its neigh-bours to be more accepting of the US presence. Le Mière pointed out the US has always been a strong presence in the region, and while there is a rebalance within Asia occurring, it is not so much a ‘pivot’.

Douglas Paal explained that when considering the rapid growth of the Chinese military it is important to factor in their relatively weak starting point. China began to build military capabilities as its economy took off over the past two decades. The country has expanded its capacity and assertiveness over time; this is not a new trend. Nevertheless, while the idea of an arms race might not accurately depict Asian military trends, Paal contends that the US has refocused on supporting allies in the region. China’s view of this rebalance is as an organised effort orchestrated against them, while the American government’s response is that the US strategy in Asia is not necessarily containment. Paal explained the US is there to pro-tect its interests. To conclude, Le Mière noted that while the US and China have a deep sense of mistrust toward each other, there are possibilities for military-to-military engagement, such as in the event of natural disasters and humanitarian relief missions, which provide opportunities for joint cooperation.

Syria After Geneva, the Elections, and ISIS

Emile Hokayem, IISS Senior Fellow for Middle East Security, spoke at the IISS–US about the origins and implications of the Syrian Civil War. Hokayem explained that Syria is essentially undergoing a de-facto par-tition, but that such a partition is not a viable solution to the conflict. Consequently, political settlement is unlikely any time soon. The conflict, Hokayem posited, is liable to endure another 5–10 years before any sort of settlement is reached. Despite insurgency from an increasingly diverse number of rebel groups, the Syrian government has retained an upper hand in the conflict. Hokayem explained that the regime’s survival has become less dubious over the past two years; in fact, pro-Assad forces are at their strongest since 2012. The event was chaired by Bryce Campbell, Managing Director, IISS–US and can be watched here.

The Ukraine Crisis: Origins and Outlook

On 19 June, Dr Samuel Charap gave a talk in the IISS–US New York series with Thomas Graham of Kissinger Associates as the discussant, hosted by Rick Grove at the office of Rutter Associates in Manhattan. Charap, IISS Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, spoke on the origins of the Ukraine crisis; scenarios for its future evolution; and the Western policy response, including EU and US sanctions and their implications. Charap highlighted the significant lack of diplomatic contact between the various parties involved in the conflict and how that communications gap was worsening odds for a collective compromise or substantial negotiations in the imme-diate term.

USS Lake Erie leads ships of the US navy and South Korean navy during an exercise in the East China Sea, March 2014 (Michael Achterling/US Navy)

Images of Bashar al-Assad, President of Syria, in a Damascus street (James Gordon)

Pro-Russian forces in Crimea, March 2014 (iStock/AndreyKrav)

IISS–US EXPERTSSYRIAASIA-PACIFIC UKRAINE

IISS NEWS JULY 2014 | 19

How the US is Perceived in the Cyber Domain by Other Major Actors

On 25 June IISS–US hosted a public discussion on how the US is perceived by Russia, China, and other major actors in the cyber domain. Nigel Inkster, Director for Transnational Threats and Political Risk; Dr Eneken Tikk-Ringas, Senior Fellow for Cyber Security; and Rafal Rohozinski, Consulting Senior Fellow for Cyber Security, spoke to an audience at the Washington office on the concerns of Russia and China with the United States’ bilateral approach to cyber regulation, coalition formation in shaping cyber policy, and the challenges of regulating and enforcing cyber laws across interna-tional boundaries. They also discussed future challenges and the potential for industry to take the lead in determining state cyber strategy.

Tikk-Ringas addressed Russian perceptions of US cyber policies, spe-cifically Russia’s concerns with American unwillingness to bring cyber issues to international forums. The United States’ track record of solving cyber issues bilaterally is troubling to Russia, although the commonly held

belief among Russian policymakers is that China’s rapid growth will soon make it the largest cyber power. Inkster echoed this sentiment, explaining how a growing China sees itself as a future cyber leader and is concerned that the US is seeking to stem its rise. China sees the US as trying to domi-nate and militarise the cyber domain, and thus officials within the People’s Liberation Army and foreign policy communities view US criticism of Chinese cyber tactics as hypocritical. Finally, Rohozinski discussed how the US experience with Edward Snowden in 2013 led to increased state power over the cyber domain in the former Soviet Union.

US 24th Air Force cyber facility, Lackland Air Force Base (US DoD)

An oil terminal in Feodosiya in the Crimea (iStock)

IISS–USEXPERTS CYBER SECURITY

The Ukraine Crisis and the Future of the Russia-EU Gas Relationship

Pierre Noël, the IISS Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah Senior Fellow for Economic and Energy Security, spoke at Arundel House on 12 May as Russia moved closer to cutting the gas supply to Ukraine over unpaid bills, and against the background of a crisis in bilateral relations. Dr Noël argued that Ukraine had for years leveraged its monopoly over the transit of Russian gas to Europe, in order to keep its own gas prices low and so avoid eco-nomic reform. The latest crisis is a result of a joint decision by Russia and some European firms to erode Ukraine’s monopoly by building bypass pipelines.

Looking to Europe, Dr Noël drew a sharp distinction between inte-grated markets in northwestern Europe and those in eastern Europe that are dependent on Russia. The fault for this, he argued, lies largely with the European Commission, which has failed to establish a unified market and

prevents the establishment of a gas monopsony in the less-integrated parts of the continent.

This meeting was chaired by Dr Nicholas Redman, Director of Editorial and Senior Fellow for Geopolitical Risk and Economic Security. A video of the event can be watched here.

RUSSIA–EURASIA

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20 | JULY 2014 IISS NEWS

IISS Manama Dialogue Preparatory Sherpa Meeting

On 19 May, the IISS convened its annual Manama Dialogue Preparatory Sherpa Meeting in the Kingdom of Bahrain. Each year, this meeting launches the IISS Manama Dialogue process, an established component of the regional security architecture advancing Gulf policy that culminates with the IISS Manama Dialogue in December. This year’s Sherpa meeting endeavoured to shape the 2014 Manama Dialogue research agenda. This programme will serve as a framework for both the conference itself and for IISS–Middle East headquarters research activities, which generate key analysis for regional leaders in defence and diplomacy. The agenda’s cen-tral themes are The Spillover from Syria, The Role of Outside Powers in the Gulf and Iran’s Nuclear Negotiations and Afterwards. IISS senior staff and selected government officials, expected to play a pivotal role in this year’s Manama Dialogue, assessed each one of these themes at the Sherpa meeting, which was entirely off the record.

IISS and the Norwegian Embassy in the UAE

On 8 June, the IISS and the Royal Norwegian Embassy in Abu Dhabi convened a joint panel discussion at the St Regis Hotel, Abu Dhabi. Ambassador Sten Anders Berge delivered the opening remarks, after which the following IISS experts spoke on the panel: Dr Sanjaya Baru, Director for Geo-Economics and Strategy; Dr Pierre Noël, Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah Senior Fellow for Economic and Energy Security; Emile Hokayem, Senior Fellow for Regional Security; and Dr Samuel Charap, Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia. The participants explored a range of topics, such as the crisis in Ukraine and its subsequent regional impact, as well as over-arching regional security issues, including the future of GCC relations with Iran. This panel discussion served as the IISS–Middle East headquarters’ preparatory framework for the forthcoming IISS Global Strategic Review (GSR). This year’s GSR will be held from 19–21 September in Oslo, Norway.

Outside Powers in the GulfOn 11 June, the IISS–Middle East convened a workshop on the role of outside powers in the Gulf as part of its work on the Manama Dialogue research agenda. The event included the following sessions: ‘The Gulf in Global Perspective’, chaired by Dr Sanjaya Baru, IISS Director for Geo-

Economics & Strategy and ‘Outside Powers in the Gulf and The Effects of the “Pivot” on the Foreign Policy Behaviour of the Gulf States’, chaired by Dr Toby Dodge, IISS Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East. The workshop convened senior government officials, military officials and other key players from the region, and will produce a series of special papers to be made available at this year’s IISS Manama Dialogue.

The Business and Foreign Policies of the New Government in India

On 12 June, the IISS–Middle East convened an off-the-record panel dis-cussion to explore the future of the new Indian government. The event, part of the IISS Global Perspectives Series, was chaired by IISS Director for Geo-economics and Strategy Dr Sanjaya Baru. Ambassador Mohan Kumar, Ambassador of India to the Kingdom of Bahrain; Dr Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, IISS Senior Fellow for South Asia; and Arun Kumar, Senior Private Equity Professional and Angel Investor, participated as panellists. They noted that the Modi government is expected to focus on two key priorities – economic revival, as the recent reduction in growth has affected investor confidence, and domestic governance, amidst several allegations

of corruption during the previous, Congress-led government. They also examined Modi’s indications that his government will be more open to foreign investment in a number of areas, including strategic sectors. The discussion was followed by a lively question and answer session.

GCC members meet in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, June 2014 (Getty/Fayez Nureldine)

Commuters on the Delhi metro (iStock/Daniel Berehulak)

EU–Iran discussions during the nuclear negotiations in Vienna, April 2014 (EU)

IISS–MIDDLE EAST EXPERTSIRANMANAMA DIALOGUE SYRIA INDIA

IISS NEWS JULY 2014 | 21

New Dossier Launched at the Shangri-La Dialogue

On the opening day of the 13th IISS Shangri-La Dialogue a panel of IISS experts convened for the launch of the Regional Security Assessment 2014: Key developments and trends in Asia-Pacific Security, the first IISS Strategic Dossier to be released in association with the Singapore summit. The Dossier focuses on issues that reflect the most important themes to emerge from successive Dialogues, including the evolving regional roles of the major powers, most significantly the US, China, Japan and India.

Within the assessment experts provide their perspectives on potential flashpoints in Asia-Pacific stability, notably the Korean Peninsula, Taiwan and the territorial disputes in the East and South China seas. Questions of military competition in the region and the ever-crucial task of creating a stable regional order are discussed alongside an appraisal of the pervasive low-intensity security concerns that have emerged in recent years, such as insurgencies in South Asia and the increasing threats to cyber security.

This IISS Strategic Dossier underlines the extent to which the Asia-Pacific’s contemporary security environment is hugely complex, rapidly

evolving and potentially dangerous. At the same time, it highlights the intractability of the most important security dilemmas and emphasises the need for sophisticated and agile policymaking, in order to prevent a fur-ther deterioration in regional security.

Adam Ward, Director of Studies at the IISS, chaired both the Singapore launch on 30 May and the subsequent UK launch on 15 June. Both events featured Q&A sessions after presentations from the experts: the Singapore launch can be watched here, and the UK launch can be watched here.

New IISS Strategic DossierREGIONAL SECURITY ASSESSMENT 2014Key developments and trends in Asia-Pacific security

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Since 2002, the International Institute for Strategic Studies has organised the Shangri-La Dialogue in

Singapore as a venue at which defence ministers, military and top-ranking defence officials from Asia-

Pacific states, and other powers heavily involved in the region, are able to discuss the most important

regional security matters of the day . The Dialogue has become a fixture in the calendars of key Asia-Pacific

defence decision-makers from 27 countries, and in mid-2014 it convened for the thirteenth time .

This Regional Security Assessment 2014 is the first IISS Strategic Dossier to be issued in association

with the Shangri-La Dialogue . It focuses on issues reflecting the most important themes to emerge from

successive Dialogues:

• The evolving regional roles of the major powers,

particularly the United States and China, but also

Japan and India, among others .

• The dangers posed by potential flashpoints,

notably the Korean Peninsula, Taiwan and territorial

disputes in the East and South China seas .

• Pervasive low-intensity security concerns, from

insurgencies in Southeast Asia to transnational threats

relating to maritime, resource and cyber security .

• The crucial overarching questions of military

competition in the region and how best to

construct a more secure and stable regional order .

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