IISS news April 2015

President Juan Manuel Santos opened the Cartagena Dialogue: The Trans-Pacific Summit on 6 March 2015 with a keynote address. He described the integration of Colombia with the Asia-Pacific as ‘a dream, almost an obsession’ during the past two decades. The Dialogue – which brought together the four Pacific Alliance states of Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru, plus observer states from Latin America and Asia – represented a further step in Colombia’s trans-Pacific relationships, Santos said. The country’s GDP growth has averaged 5% annually in recent years, surpassing neighbouring countries. It attracts today more foreign investment than ever, thanks to the control of inflation and the reduction of poverty. Approximately two million people have been lifted out of poverty in the past four years, the president said, adding that the goal is to eradicate poverty entirely within a decade.

President Santos told delegates that the peace process with the FARC paved the way for more

social and economic progress. It held out the promise of ending the oldest conflict in the west-ern hemisphere, which had run for 50 years. He spoke candidly about the difficulties of striking a balance between peace and justice for victims in the talks with FARC being held in Havana, Cuba. Colombia’s goal, he said, is to achieve a level of jus-tice that allows peace. On a positive note, he shared with the audience the experience of victims of the conflict who journeyed to Havana and returned home more willing to forgive than before.

Colombia entered the talks from a position of strength and increased security that was a result of the strengthening of the armed forces and the police, President Santos said. The security forces were able to achieve significant victories that debilitated FARC during the years prior to the Havana talks. Improved security has also been one of the pillars of Colombia’s economic and social progress, he added. These advances have been

supported by integration with the global economy: Colombia now has preferential access to 1.5 billion consumers in the Americas, Europe and soon the Asia-Pacific. The Pacific Alliance, he said, is such a promising trade initiative because it seeks ‘deep integration’ between the four current member countries. The Alliance, he added, is the most dynamic platform for economy and trade in Latin America, pursuing the free circulation of goods, services, capital and people.

The president highlighted the deepening inte-gration of the Pacific Alliance countries into Asian political and economic fora such as ASEAN and APEC. One of the challenges for Colombia is to diversify the range of its exports to Asia-Pacific countries. Santos said Colombia will exploit its agricultural potential to sell more food prod-ucts to Asian countries, where populations and incomes are rising, stoking increased demand for food products. The IISS Cartagena Dialogue, the

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Juan Manuel Santos, President of Colombia

Juan Carlos Varela Rodríguez, President of Panama

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president concluded, reaffirms Colombia’s role as a point of contact between Asia and Latin America.

Shortly before President Santos gave the keynote address, Caracol Television organised a debate involving delegates and speakers at the Dialogue, chaired by News Director Juan Roberto Vargas and broadcast to 27 Latin American countries.

He began by asking panellists to assess the importance of the relationship between Latin America and Asia. Juan Carlos Pinzon Bueno, Minister of National Defence of Colombia, described Asia as a benchmark for the world economy and a centre of technological develop-ment; he noted that Latin America was smaller

but that the Pacific Alliance nevertheless con-stituted a market of comparable size to Brazil or India, and thus was an attractive partner for Asia. Dr Chung Min Lee, Korea’s Ambassador for National Security Affairs, agreed with that assessment, predicting that the Pacific Alliance would become a growth driver and core region within the Americas.

Luis Alberto Moreno Mejia, president of the Inter-American Development Bank, noted the increased trade flows: Asia’s share in Latin American trade rose from 8% in 2000 to almost 25% in 2014, although the distribution varied widely with Mexico and Brazil dominating. A south–south dialogue could help Latin America close the gap with Asia on technology and

education, he said, but also help Asia handle the transitions associated with urbanisation – a process that Latin America has largely com-pleted. Dr Min Zhu, deputy director general of the IMF, also noted the rapid increase in trade flows and said that Latin America was already integrated in some Asian vertically integrated supply chains. The closeness of the economies was apparent in the high degree of correlation between Asian and Latin American stockmar-kets, he added.

Senator Gabriela Cuevas Barron, chair of the Mexican Senate’s foreign affairs committee, noted that the lack of pan-Pacific institutions to stimulate contacts between Latin America and Asia, aside from the Trans-Pacific Partnership

Juan Carlos Pinzon Bueno, Minister of National Defence, Colombia; Dr Chung Min Lee, Korea’s Ambassador for National Security Affairs; Luis Alberto Moreno Mejia, President, Inter-American Development Bank; Dr Min Zhu, Deputy Managing Director, IMF; Senator Gabriela Cuevas Barron, Chair of the Mexican Senate’s Foreign Affairs Committee

CARTAGENA DIALOGUE ASIA-PACIFIC COLOMBIAPACIFIC ALLIANCE

Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS

Juan Manuel Santos, President of Colombia

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(TPP) trade initiative. The Pacific Alliance, she added, has great potential as a market and an exporter of some important commodities such as silver and copper.

Mr Vargas then turned attention to the question of insecurity and how that affected business decisions. Senator Cuevas observed that, according to the UN, seven of the world’s ten most dangerous countries are located in Latin America; and yet this had not proven to be a barrier to investment. Insecurity, even in the worst-afflicted states, was not uniform, she noted. Chung Min Lee suggested that percep-tions of Asian investors sometimes failed to keep pace with improving realities in Colombia and Mexico, while also noting that Asia suf-fered from inter-state tensions that were largely absent in Latin America.

Minister Pinzon added that it was important to boost security in order for investors to feel comfortable – noting that economic develop-ment was vital to underpin the security gains made in Colombia in recent years. Touching on Chung Min Lee’s comparison of security in Asia and Latin America, he said that the latter enjoyed considerable security at the inter-state level but low levels of security at the personal level.

Plenary 1: the Pacific Alliance Countries and AsiaOpening the first plenary session, María Ángela Holguín Cuéllar, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Colombia, outlined the importance of the Pacific Alliance in supporting Colombia’s devel-

opment and integration in Asia. Colombia’s partners share our vision, she said, but they have already built links to Asia through trade agreements and we have benefited from their experience and the ability to share diplomatic missions. The Pacific Alliance is focused on Asia because it believes the region is the lynchpin of the global economy in the 21st century, the min-ister remarked.

Within Latin America, the agenda for coop-eration within the alliance includes migration, easing travel between the regions. Already these nations are reaping the benefits of easier freedom of movement, the minister remarked, and are continuing to work together despite changes of government in member-countries. In Asia, the Pacific Alliance has started a rela-tionship with ASEAN – a grouping that, like the alliance, is a good example of open regionalism and ensuring stability and prosperity.

Jose Antonio Meade Kuribrena, Secretary of Foreign Affairs, Mexico, reflected on the failure of Latin America until recently to make a success of regional integration, despite com-monalities of language, culture, values, history and aspirations. The Pacific Alliance, he sug-gested, marks a change for the better. It has been assisted by having two main objectives: to build a single, deeply integrated economic space; and to create a platform to promote the coun-tries in the wider world and especially in Asia. A great deal of progress has been made on the first objective over the last three years, not only regarding trade but also visa and stockmarket integration, he said.

Secretary Meade said that the next step is to promote the Pacific Alliance countries in the Pacific region and to create opportunities for business-to-business contacts. To that end, they hope to hold an APEC-Pacific Alliance meeting on the margins of the Latin American Economic Forum in April.

The theme of the Pacific Alliance being a response to previous failed integration efforts was taken up by Claudio de la Puente Ribeyro, Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, Peru. Broader integration projects have been stymied by ideo-logical and developmental differences among states, he said, prompting Peru’s then-president Alen Garcia to establish a vanguard for integra-tion based on a core group of solid democracies with similar outlooks on economic and trade policy. The Pacific Alliance is the first integra-tion venture based on common interests rather than geographical proximity, the vice minister said. It is open to other states in the region, so long as they share the alliance’s values and stan-dards.

Looking to Asia, the vice minister vowed to help and support Colombia’s desire to join APEC. There is considerable Asian interest in the Pacific Alliance, he added, noting that there are 32 observer states, half of which are Asian. Speaking of Peru’s own ties to Asia, he recalled that diplomatic relations with China and Japan were established in the 1870s and that today the country is home to the largest Chinese com-munity in Latin America and the second-largest Japanese community. Today China is Peru’s leading trade partner and a major investor too.

CARTAGENA DIALOGUELATIN AMERICA & THE CARIBBEAN

María Ángela Holguín Cuéllar, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Colombia

Jose Antonio Meade Kuribrena, Secretary of Foreign Affairs, Mexico

Claudio de la Puente Ribeyro, Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, Peru

Edgardo Riveros, Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, Chile

GEO-ECONOMICS

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Addressing another aspect of the Pacific Alliance, Edgardo Riveros, Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, Chile, observed that the world is now comprised of trade groupings, making integration a necessity in order to create effi-cient development and foreign-trade policies. The individual states of the Pacific Alliance have forged many bilateral Free-Trade Agreements (FTAs), he said, but acting individually is no longer sufficient. The Pacific Alliance stands out because of its desire to become a genuine regional platform. He affirmed Chile’s commit-ment to far-reaching trade liberalisation and opening the trade in services and government procurement within the Alliance.

The Pacific Alliance’s Asian focus can help with important domestic objectives, in particu-lar the cause of reducing inequality within Latin America, the vice minister said. Asian exper-tise and experience in science, technology and innovation can help to narrow disparities of income and opportunity within the Pacific Alliance states.

The debate that followed the speeches touched on the question of whether the Pacific Alliance’s Asian focus represented an effort to reduce economic reliance on China, and also on the difficulty of balancing close security ties with the US and growing trade ties with China – a dilemma that is common to some Asian and Latin American states. Dr Felipe Larraín Bascuñán, Chile’s former Minister of Finance, raised the question of the Alliance widening or deepening, and whether that necessitated institutional development. The two foreign

ministers were emphatic in their response. Secretary Meade said the Pacific Alliance’s limited bureaucracy and institutionalism has been hugely advantageous. Minister Holguín warned that the creation of a bureaucracy could deprive the alliance of dynamism and creativ-ity. It is essential to not create a bureaucratic machine, she added.

Plenary 2: Asian Perspectives on the Pacific AllianceDr Min Zhu, Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, observed that Latin America’s exports to Asia had risen substantially. Moreover, China and Japan were providing significant capital flows to Latin America and equity markets had become closely aligned. Asian economies were now moving from export-led policies towards the development of domestic economies, the expan-sion of the middle class and a strong financial sector. China’s current spending on invest-ment, at 44% of GDP, is unsustainable: a cut to 34% of GDP over several years would have significant adverse impacts on Latin American commodity markets. The challenge is to estab-lish a ‘new normal’ in relations between Asia and Latin America, moving beyond the com-modity cycle towards a more broad-based relationship involving increased consumerism, services and agriculture. This should involve not just the major corporations but also small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Such an evolution would have profound social and cultural implications. It would be character-

ised by greater levels of technology transfer and increased investment in infrastructure and edu-cation, which would bring substantial benefits including reductions in income inequality.

Cho Taeyul, Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, Republic of Korea, emphasised the importance for South Korea of the Pacific Alliance. Already Seoul is negotiating bilateral Free-Trade Agreements (FTAs) with the four Alliance states. Although Korea has a long-standing relationship of trust with Colombia, dating back to the Korean War, Seoul feels a sense of camaraderie with all four Pacific Alliance states based on a shared outlook. Latin America has been a laboratory for competing theories of economic development, he said, but it now appears that the open, free-trade model espoused by the Pacific Alliance is carrying the day. Latin America as a whole faces a shortfall in infrastructure: the cost of remedying it is expected to rise to US$120 billion by 2020, the vice minister stated. South Korean companies are well placed to work in this sphere, creating high-quality jobs and added value.

Cesar Purisima, Secretary of Finance, the Philippines, observed that the trans-Pacific alli-ance was not a new idea. Some 450 years ago there had been a galleon trade between Acapulco and Manila involving bullion on one side and Chinese manufactured goods on the other. At that time, and for most of recorded history, China had been the world’s largest economy and it was now resuming that status. Asia as a whole would soon account for two-thirds of the world’s middle class, he stated. Re-establishing the gal-

Min Zhu, Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund

Cho Taeyul, Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Korea

Cesar Purisima, Secretary of Finance of the Philippines

Toshiro Suzuki, Ambassador at Large for International Economic Issues, Japan

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leon trade will require clarity of vision. The Pacific Alliance, for instance, should be clear about its role within Latin America. If it is to be a hub for inter-American trade, it requires increased connectivity and the negotiation of gold-standard FTAs ideally involving the abo-lition of tariffs, since the transportation costs of trans-Pacific trade already constitute a sig-nificant tariff. Secretary Purisima added that the Pacific Alliance should serve as a channel for information, to overcome the cultural and linguistic barriers hampering trans-Pacific trade.

Ambassador Toshiro Suzuki of Japan said that his country would shortly have FTAs with all Pacific Alliance nations once its negotiations with Colombia were concluded. The keidanren has set up a Pacific Alliance task force, and in 2014 Prime Minister Shinzo Abe brought 250 Japanese businessmen on his visits to Colombia, Mexico and Chile. To fulfil its potential, he said, the Pacific Alliance has to overcome several challenges including diversifying its production base and increasing its manufacturing capacity. Japan is investing heavily in Latin America and its involvement in Mexico’s automotive indus-try included the local sourcing of parts. The Pacific Alliance should also integrate its value chain into the global supply chain, improve infrastructure and logistics, harmonise regula-tions and provide greater support for its SMEs. Finally, the Alliance should raise productivity through investments in education, training and technology. Japan was ready to play a greater role in assisting in all these areas, the ambassa-dor concluded.

Questions and comments to speakers included an emphasis on the need for the Pacific Alliance project to move from a negotiated elite project to one that was more organic and com-manded broad popular support. It should move beyond a focus on FTAs and address security and climate change. Greater engagement with SMEs in the Pacific Alliance was also needed, as currently they view greater engagement with Asia as a source of unwelcome competition rather than an opportunity. There was also dis-cussion of the political implications of greater trans-Pacific trade including the need for states to maintain a balance in their relations with the USA and with China.

Plenary 3: The Trans-Pacific Opportunity: Perspectives from the Business CommunityThis session was chaired by Bill Emmott, former editor, The Economist and an IISS Trustee. In his opening remarks Emmott emphasised the sig-nificance of the IISS inviting business leaders to speak at the Cartagena Dialogue. Relationships between nations are mediated not just by gov-ernments but also through people-to-people and business-to-business interactions, he said. Business plays an important role in the interac-tion between the Pacific Alliance countries and the countries of the Asia-Pacific, with growing trade and investment relations.

Speaking first, Yorihiko Kojima, Chairman of the Board, Mitsubishi Corporation, focused on three issues, namely, the importance of free trade to economic development in the Asia-Pacific region, in the context of the growing

economic integration through Global Value Chains (GVC); the expectations of Japanese business from the Pacific Alliance countries and the relations between Japan and the Pacific Alliance countries. He viewed the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade initiative as an attempt to address the needs of multinational companies with trans-border investments through GVCs. With an aggregate income of US$2 trillion the Pacific Alliance economies were together as big as Italy’s and, therefore, offered an attractive market opportunity for Japanese companies. However, Mr Kojima felt, for trans-Pacific trade to flourish it is necessary that there is political stability and security in the Asia-Pacific region. Japan seeks a stable, secure and peaceful Pacific region. Mr Kojima commended the Japan-Colombia Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) and viewed it as a good framework for increasing trade and investment flows. He believed this would encourage Japanese firms to invest in the region and also set up joint ventures with Latin American firms in third markets, especially Southeast Asia.

The second speaker, Omar Lodhi, Partner and Regional Head of East Asia, The Abraaj Group, drew attention to the growing signifi-cance of south-south trade and capital flows and viewed the Pacific Alliance as an initiative that would strengthen such flows. He identified three ‘drivers of change’ in Asia-Latin America relations: demographic change in both regions; urbanisation; and the rise of a new middle class. While Asian investment in the Latin American region was still very low, he saw this rising,

Yorihiko Kojima, Chairman of the Board, Mitsubishi Corporation

Omar Lodhi, Partner and Regional Head of East Asia, The Abraaj Group

Katia Bouazza, Head, Latin America and Capital Financing, HSBC Bank USA

David Bojanini García, Chief Executive Officer, Suramericana Investment Group

CARTAGENA DIALOGUEGLOBALISATION

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especially with the new regulatory convergence in the region owing to regional blocs such as the Pacific Alliance. In fact the Pacific Alliance had progressed further than ASEAN as far as finan-cial integration and regulatory convergence was concerned.

The third speaker, Katia Bouazza, Head, Latin America and Capital Financing, HSBC Bank USA, emphasised the relevance of the globalisation and integration of financial mar-kets for policy makers, especially in emerging markets, in dealing with the challenges posed by cross border flows of capital. She said global banks like HSBC have opened up investment opportunities in Latin America to international investors and have also been active in taking Latin American investors to attractive invest-ment destinations. Any investor seeks four pre-conditions for taking a cross-border invest-ment decision. Firstly, trade liberalisation and the free flow of goods and services. Secondly, transparent dispute settlement mechanisms. Thirdly, an initial level of protection to facilitate growth of business. Fourthly, policy transpar-ency and stability. ‘No one likes uncertainty’, she emphasised.

The last speaker, David Bojanini García, Chief Executive Officer, Grupo SURA, listed the strengths of the Pacific Alliance economies and emphasised the relevance of financial ser-vices integration within the region for domestic and overseas investors. While the integration of regional stock markets was an important step forward in this regard, he sought further liberalisation of policy with regard to pen-

sion funds and outlined the potential benefits. Policymakers should promote the benefits of regional integration within the Pacific Alliance to businesses, he insisted, as many business leaders were unaware of the opportunities offered by Pacific Alliance economic integration. He saw the assertion of the rule of law and the freedom of markets and democratic governance as important attributes of the Pacific Alliance that would reassure investors. He believed events like the Cartagena Dialogue would play an important role in increasing local and global awareness regarding the Pacific Alliance.

In the discussion that followed participants underscored the fact that the economic integra-tion of the region had been made possible by each of the governments pursuing sensible eco-nomic policies. However, they emphasised the need for greater regulatory convergence. In his intervention, Felippe Larrain Bascunan, former finance minister of Chile, underscored the importance of economic growth, policy trans-parency and stability and democracy and the rule of law to the success of the Pacific Alliance economies.

Plenary 4: Conflict Resolution and Rebuilding SocietiesThe session dwelt on the respective experi-ences of Asia and Latin America in ending long-running internal conflicts and then under-pinning post-conflict stability. Gen (Retd) Oscar Adolfo Naranjo Trujillo, Counsel Minister for Post-Conflict Human Rights and Security, Colombia, began by announcing an

agreement at the peace talks in Havana on con-flict de-escalation measures that will allow for demining work immediately. The Havana talks, he said, are not the result of a military stale-mate; rather, they are the result of 15 years of strengthening the military, police and justice system. The decision to negotiate rather than seek outright military victory was ethical, the general said. It is important to show that politics can work for all Colombians, so there is no need to take up arms.

Gen Naranjo recalled that the authorities studied 37 negotiation models before embark-ing on its peace initiative, to avoid repeating past failures. Planning for the post-conflict phase is already underway, he said, because this is vital to securing peace. In Havana, funda-mental agreements have been reached on rural and agricultural issues. Progress has been made on political participation and the controversial topic of narcotics. The government insists that FARC acknowledges its reliance on the drug trade and explicitly renounce it, otherwise nar-cotics could become a threat to post-conflict stabilisation.

Dr Dino Patti Djalal, former vice minister for Foreign Affairs, Indonesia, recounted the steps that ended the three-decade long con-flict in Aceh that resulted in tens of thousands of deaths. GAM and the Free Aceh Movement were a formidable military force but the 2004 tsunami changed the conflict dynamic entirely, he said, killing 200,000 people and causing so much devastation that GAM was prompted to negotiate. Peace talks were completed in

CONFLICT RESOLUTION

Dr Dino Patti Djalal, former vice minister for Foreign Affairs, Indonesia

Senen Bacani, Member, Government of Philippines Peace Negotiating Panel

Dr Gino Costa, former minister of the Interior, Peru

Gen (Retd) Oscar Adolfo Naranjo Trujillo, Counsel Minister for Post-Conflict Human Rights and Security, Colombia

CARTAGENA DIALOGUE INSURGENCY

IISS NEWS APRIL 2015 | 7

six months. The key to this success lay in five attributes: leadership, pragmatism, a forward-looking mindset, reconciliation and patience. President Yudhoyono’s leadership and his insistence that a military solution would not provide a sustainable end to the conflict was vital; he changed society’s perception of what constituted victory. Once negotiations began, pragmatism and flexibility were essential to making progress. Thus the Indonesian gov-ernment agreed to demilitarisation of territory and the deployment of international observers. Equally important was the agreement of both sides to face the future rather than dwelling on past violations of human rights. All these steps enabled reconciliation, by which enemies became political partners, he concluded.

In contrast with the rapid resolution in Aceh, the conflict involving the Moro Islamic Liberation Front in the Philippines took 17 years of protracted negotiations. Senen Bacani, Member, Government of Philippines Peace Negotiating Panel, spoke about a process that is still potentially vulnerable. A confidence-build-ing programme has been put into effect and in 2014 the government and MILF launched the Bangsamoro Development Plan to help sustain-able peace and development. Decomissioning is vital, Mr Bacani said. He identified four essen-tial elements for success in resolving conflicts: leadership, trust, historical justice and support-ive consensus. Whereas the points regarding leadership and trust were largely in line with those offered earlier by Mr Djalal, Mr Bacani argued that a commitment to look honestly at past crimes, to right wrongs and make recom-pense, was vital for peace. It was also vital, he insisted, to have a national consensus in support of conflict resolution.

Returning to the Latin American context, Dr Gino Costa, former minister of the Interior, Peru, argued that El Salvador’s experience of ending an internal conflict was more relevant for Colombia than Peru’s. In El Salvador there was no ready military solution to the conflict, he said. The negotiation centred on how the guerrillas could be brought into the political mainstream and what price the state would pay to achieve their demobilisation. Politics has triumphed: two of the six presidents since the peace was made have been from the ranks of former guerrillas. However, the post-conflict period has been very violent, with high levels of crime, perhaps due to the failure to secure eco-nomic development.

Colombia’s explicit focus on planning for post-conflict stabilisation was wise in the con-

text of El Salvador’s troubles, Dr Costa said. However he cautioned that the drug trade made the FARC conflict more difficult to solve while the Statute of Rome and the existence of the International Criminal Court made a political pact less easy to construct.

The following debate touched on demobilisa-tion questions, societal attitudes and the tension between populism and statecraft when address-ing conflict resolution. Lieutenant General (Retd) Syed Ata Hasnain, Senior Fellow, Delhi Policy Group praised the prudence of the Indonesian government in redefining its con-cept of victory. Too often national ego gets in the way of peace, he said.

Gala Dinner and Special Address: Reflections on the Trans-Pacific ChallengeSpeaking at the Gala Dinner, Colombian Defense Minister Juan Carlos Pinzón Bueno highlighted Colombia’s counter-insurgency success during the past 15 years. The country was able to strengthen the public security forces thanks to a special tax aimed at expanding its capabilities and to Plan Colombia, the aid pack-age promoted by the US. Thanks to these efforts, he said, approximately 90% of municipalities are now free of conflict.

The security forces in Colombia have devel-oped capacities for complex operations and were able to go from defensive to offensive operations that pushed the guerrillas to remote regions of the country. Minister Pinzón added that security strategies such as Sword of Honour and Green Heart were built on the capacity of the forces to adapt according to the shifting dynamics of the armed groups. The country’s

security forces are now skilled in planning and coordinating joint operations involving mul-tiple agencies.

Building a long-term sense of security, Pinzón added, will take several years. The signing of a peace treaty would be just the first step toward peace and the public forces will be charged with maintaining the security environ-ment in order to achieve social and economic prosperity. He also highlighted the armed forces’ involvement in the technical talks with FARC to pave the way for the end of the conflict, despite their 50-year-long struggle against the guerrilla group.

Minister Pinzón expounded on the con-cept of ‘comprehensive security’ (seguridad integral) – the combination of law enforcement and military tools with other state institutions and services. He argued that the armed forces are tasked with providing the basic security guarantees for the state, but these need to be followed by strong institutions alongside edu-cation, health and job opportunities.

This comprehensive approach is needed, he said, to tackle the shifting security dynamics in Colombia. Hybrid threats operating through diffuse networks will continue to pose chal-lenges and require the attention of the armed forces. Hybrid groups, the minister added, are driven both by political and economic aims and benefit from technological innovations, global capital flows and migration. He highlighted ter-rorism, cyber attacks and transnational criminal groups linked to natural-resources exploitation, such as illegal mining and illegal fishing, as key security challenges ahead. These complex threats underscore the important role that the

CIVIL CONFLICT

Juan Carlos Pinzón Bueno, Defence Minister, Colombia

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armed forces have to play in the future, as guar-antors of peace, development and prosperity.

The Colombian armed forces and police have adapted to these transnational and diffuse networks of armed groups through a process of modernisation, said Pinzón. Its public forces are now in a position to share their experiences with other countries. A total of 24,000 members of the military or police agencies from 70 coun-tries have undertaken training with Colombian security practitioners. This experience and the growing links with the Asia–Pacific, he said, reinforce the role of Colombia as a key regional and global actor.

Plenary 5: An Agenda for Trans-Pacific CooperationOpening the session, Mauricio Cárdenas Santamaría, Minister of Finance and Public Credit, Colombia, noted that his country’s strong economic performance of recent years was based on the achievement of a level of trust among consumers, business and foreign inves-tors. The minister noted that the Pacific Alliance was conceived at a time of high commodity prices, but now that the supercycle has passed the true value of alliance has become apparent, as it offers increased markets for the non-com-modity sectors.

In addition, the Pacific Alliance helps Colombia and its partners internationally, he said, noting the support that Mexico and Chile had offered his country in joining the OECD. The focus on Asia also underscores the connec-tions between peace, development and global

integration for Colombia. The country’s peace process will enable the state to establish its pres-ence in territory where currently it is weak, he said. That in turn will open rich territories for agricultural production, and Asia will be the principal market for this output, creating pros-perity that will sustain peace.

Surveying trans-Pacific exchanges, Dr Marty Natalegawa, former minister of Foreign Affairs, Indonesia, noted the expansion of ASEAN’s initiatives to build the security archi-tecture in the western Pacific in recent years, as well as multilateral initiatives such as the East Asia Summit and ASEAN Regional Forum. He also touched upon APEC, TPP and the Forum for East Asia-Latin America Cooperation (FEALAC) as institutions that serve as a bridg-ing function to Latin America.

Dr Natalegawa offered a a two-point agenda for cooperation, focused firstly on physical, institutional and people-to-people connectivity, and secondly on promoting a peaceful Pacific Ocean. It is important to not let sensitivities get in the way of addressing this important subject and confronting reality, he said. In building a new security architecture for the new cen-tury, he pointed to three objectives: improving strategic trust, managing territorial disputes peacefully and accommodating the rise of new powers.

Celso Amorim, Brazil’s former minis-ter of Foreign Affairs and former minister of Defence, took up the theme of peace and secu-rity by suggesting that the Pacific could draw lessons from the South Atlantic by establishing a

zone of peace and cooperation. Central to this success, he said, was the effort to separate the South Atlantic from the broader ocean in a political sense. The former minister reminded delegates that Mercosur was larger than the Pacific Alliance and currently enjoyed higher levels of intra-bloc trade; that organisation and UNASUR, moreover, are overtly political projects designed to establish a zone of peace in which war is inconceivable. By contrast, he noted, the Pacific Alliance has no defence aspi-ration. Mr Amorim said Brazil is trying to create a Defence Council of South America that would stimulate high-technology industry across the continent and ensure that more of the military equipment procured in Latin America would be produced there.

Returning to the theme of trans-Pacific cooperation, Lee Ark Boon, Singapore’s Deputy Secretary (Trade), Ministry of Trade and Industry spoke about the importance of boosting connectivity between governments, business and people. He argued for a strong regulatory infrastructure that went beyond FTAs, also embracing investment protection and double-taxation agreements.

Trade negotiations are often difficult because of the internal dynamics in the par-ticipant states, he said, but insisted that it was beneficial to tackle trade and investment barri-ers, because the benefits are felt broadly. This refers in particular to SMEs, that otherwise lack the resources to do business across the Pacific Ocean. The deputy secretary concluded with a bold proposal: to think strategically by con-

GEOPOLITICS

Dr Marty Natalegawa, former minister of Foreign Affairs, Indonesia

Lee Ark Boon, Singapore’s Deputy Secretary (Trade), Ministry of Trade and Industry

Celso Amorim, Brazil’s former minister of Foreign Affairs

Mauricio Cárdenas Santamaría, Minister of Finance and Public Credit, Colombia

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IISS NEWS APRIL 2015 | 9

PANAMA

cluding an FTA between the Pacific Alliance and ASEAN, rather than focusing on bilateral FTAs. A region-to-region FTA could have huge benefits under rules of origin, he said, and would allow companies in ASEAN and the Pacific Alliance to access global value chains. It could also be a stepping stone towards an Asia-Pacific FTA, he added.

The ensuing discussion touched on the pos-sibility that the Pacific Alliance could one day become a body embracing all of Latin America, as the European Union – which started as the European Coal and Steel Community in 1951 – has done in Europe. There was also discus-sion around whether there could be functional integration between the Alliance on one hand and Mercosur and other regional bodies on the other. Minister Cardenas stressed that the Pacific Alliance is open to all states who share the alliance’s outlook and values, but it was essential that they adhere to the stan-dards already agreed and implemented. Celso Amorim argued that Mercosur had much better prospects of becoming the EU of Latin America than Mercosur; he also warned that it was important not to avoid dividing Latin America between a pro-business, free-trading Pacific and a statist South Atlantic. This would put peace in jeopardy, he warned.

Concluding Keynote Address: President of Panama, Juan Carlos Varela RodríguezPresident Juan Carlos Varela Rodríguez of Panama delivered the closing keynote address

at the IISS Cartagena Dialogue. His inspiring speech focused on three intertwined themes: good governance, regional and international cooperation, and prosperity.

The president urged fellow world lead-ers and civil servants not to look at politics as a ‘business’ but as a way of serving soci-ety and addressing issues affecting citizens. Strengthening democracy is, he argued, as cru-cial as dealing with the challenge of organised crime currently affecting many countries in Latin America. State resources must be used to improve life, he said. Leaders ought to lead by example and prove that the state is capable of caring for its people and the youth in particu-lar. In this way, it would be possible to break the foundation of criminal groups.

These considerations should be at the core of interactions between the region and Asian countries, the president insisted. Priority should be given to human development and continued efforts to eliminate inequality and unemploy-ment, and to ensure universal access to basic services and education. This will consolidate and unify society, while also bolstering peace and making the environment less attractive to transnational criminal networks. In this context, he lauded the Colombian peace process as a model worthy of emulation.

Turning to the Pacific Alliance, President Varela noted that Panama is in the process of accession. He promised cooperation with other regional powers on all fronts and cited the many initiatives undertaken to contribute

Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS

Juan Carlos Varela Rodríguez, President of Panama

to national and regional prosperity. Panama is expected to see GDP growth of 6-7% annually from 2016, fired by government investments, and is positioning itself as a passenger and cargo hub. Initiatives include the expansion of the Panama Canal, the expansion of the interna-tional airport, and the development of the South Caribbean cruise route.

Increasingly, the president noted, Asian countries and companies are investing and operating in Panama. China, the second larg-est user of the Panama Canal, has invested in construction. Singapore sponsored the building of a technical school. South Korean technology can be found in local hospitals and the country has invested in energy and mining. Japan is to finance and provide tech-nical support to improvement works in the Panama City bay.

These forms of cooperation no doubt foster prosperity but ought to be accompanied by information exchanges such as in the context of migration and border control, and by joint efforts to ensue that the international financial system is not exploited for criminal or terroris-tic purposes, the president said. He concluded his address by stressing the need to build trust among nations to foster cooperation against transnational challenges such as organised crime, natural disasters and pandemics. In this respect, the Cartagena Dialogue was a wel-come mechanism to promote the creation and strengthening of bilateral and international ties, he averred.

CARTAGENA DIALOGUE

10 | APRIL 2015 IISS NEWS

Special Session II: Trans-Pacific Connections: Commodities, Trade and Investment

DRUGS TRADE

Simultaneous Special Session I: Insurgencies, Drugs and InsecurityThe overarching theme was that both Asia and Latin America are struggling to deal with the insurgents that rely on the drug trade and other forms of criminality, and have in some cases become full-time criminals. Across Latin America, organised crime groups are highly adaptable and resilient. They have diversified their business activities, which include drug production and smuggling but also extortion, illegal mining, contraband, counterfeiting and human- and arms-trafficking. Cartels are now vertically integrated in all these criminal activi-ties which, a few years ago, they controlled only tangentially.

There is a relationship between the organisational level of crime, and security. The fragmentation of cartels in Mexico, as a result of government policies, has produced a more disorganised criminal structure that is in flux and features high levels of violence. Elsewhere, violence is increasingly used for coercive reasons and the pattern of attacks has become more selective.

Colombia’s conflict with the FARC is unique, because it is the only ideological con-

flict that predates the end of the Cold War but continues today. Assuming that the peace process reaches a successful conclusion, it will have regional implications. One of the nega-tive likely outcomes is that it will intensify the level of criminal activity.

The slide of insurgency towards criminal-ity is a global phenomenon. In Myanmar, there is evidence of close links between insurgents and organised crime. The country is believed to be the second-largest opium producer in the

world; illegal mining and logging are also evi-dent. Some armed groups in the north of the country even operate their own drug-control policies. Although ethnic Chinese groups are deeply involved in Myanmar’s drug-traffick-ing, it would be a mistake to blame certain ethnic groups while ignoring the reality that crime-enabled corruption reaches high into the state apparatus. Until recently, the gov-ernment has focused on arresting addicts and low-level traffickers but now it is considering a development-led approach that will involve local communities and address the issue of land rights, which goes to the heart of discon-tent, instability and criminality.

Some European states recognise the nexus between insurgency and organised crime, as well as the transnational nature of the threat. The UK, for instance, is providing strategic assistance to partners to improve the socio-economic environment, strengthen gov-ernance and institutions, build criminal justice systems and disrupt crime. Yet there is also a responsibility in Western societies to work on demand reduction.

Drug seizures from organised crime (Colombian National Police)

TRADE

Trade has been the foundation of increased commercial ties between Latin America and Asia in recent years, but the cyclical downturn in commodity prices has revealed a structural problem: Latin America is overdependent on commodity exports to Asia. The discussion addressed two principal themes: the impor-tance of investing in mineral exploration to ensure sufficient capacity in the next decade; and the challenges of achieving diversifica-tion, through a broader range of exports and the attraction of more foreign, especially Asian, investment.

In Mexico, the government has embarked on an ambitious reform of the oil sector with the aim of attracting the resources necessary to increase output by 1m-2m barrels per day. This has involved constitutional reform and political controversy, in order to establish a new environment characterised by sectoral liberalisation, protection for investment and higher levels of transparency. In Peru, meanwhile, the authorities have cut taxes in response to falling copper prices and are seeking to attract still-higher levels of foreign investment in order to address an expected

2m tonnes per year shortfall in supply to the global market by the end of this decade. Companies from China, Japan and Korea are all heavily involved. Chile, Peru and Mexico together could account for 40% of global copper output. In Peru and Mexico there is a challenge for investors to ensure that new projects are undertaken in a way that ensures the support of local communi-ties. Partnership and development are key to success.

Diversification of exports from Latin America to Asia will depend partly on how ready Latin American states are to receive investment; currently, not all are. There is potentially an investment bonanza at hand: up to half of inward investment to Latin America could be of Asian origin within the next five years, and some investment could flow in the other direction too. Here the Pacific Alliance states seem particularly well-placed, because of their commitment to free markets, open competition and a rules-based system. Investment will contribute to easing three structural impediments on Latin American economies: informality and low productiv-

ity; inadequate infrastructure; and income inequality.

With the right preconditions in place, Latin America will be able to diversify its export of goods and services to Asia, and in particular to take advantage of the expected growth in Asia’s middle class. This offers considerable opportunities for services, in particular tourism. For instance, the number of Chinese tourists going abroad each year is expected to double to 200m by 2020 and their appetites will become more sophisti-cated. Another growth area is agriculture, as improving security in Latin America makes it possible to cultivate undeveloped land; this could help to feed a growing Asia while also lifting large numbers of Latin Americans out of poverty and unemployment. The further development of the Pacific Alliance econo-mies will not only boost trade with Asia, but also raise trade among members. Today, only 10% of the Pacific Alliance’s trade is within the bloc but the alliance’s recogni-tion that trade is important for development should have a positive influence across the continent.

CARTAGENA DIALOGUE INSURGENCY

IISS NEWS APRIL 2015 | 11

The session examined the links between crimi-nal groups and informal miners, an issue of growing concern for the mineral-producing countries of the Pacific Alliance. The boom in commodity prices during the 2000s boosted formal economies but also encouraged non-state armed groups, both guerrillas and organised criminals, to deepen their operations in mineral-rich areas. Participants highlighted how attractive the activity has become for inhabitants of rural areas, since mining is now usually more profitable than agriculture.

In some parts of Colombia and Peru, armed groups are now more likely to engage in infor-mal mining than drug trafficking, encouraged by state weakness. In Colombia, over 80% of mineral extraction is unlicensed. Illegal actors are able to conceal their involvement by tapping into trading companies, which then mix the ille-gally-extracted minerals with the legal supplies.

China is not only the main buyer of minerals from the Pacific Alliance, but also has its own domestic problems with informality. Efforts to tackle the problem started in earnest in 1997. By

then, approximately half of China’s coal output was informal. The activity prospered thanks in part to corrupt local officials, especially in regions where coal mining represented a big portion of the economy. Criminal gangs have also had involvement with the activity. But thanks to new laws, regulations and a cam-paign by the national government, several informal mines have been closed. The govern-ment has offered training for small farmers and set a nation-wide inspections programme on coal safety, enforcing technical standards, safety measures and promoting best practices.

Many international policies regarding informal mining were discussed. Efforts by West African countries to apply common regulations and tracking systems could serve as examples for the Pacific Alliance, as long as these are carefully adapted to local realities. On that front, speakers highlighted that there still is little exchange of ideas and best prac-tices between member countries of the alliance.

Some incentives for small miners to seek entry into the legal mining sector have been

successful. Some Latin American countries, for instance, have established official institu-tions to help small miners to become legal and increase productivity while complying with environmental regulations. The guarantee of a minimum price for small miners was cited as a particularly successful incentive because it protects producers from variations in interna-tional commodity markets.

As Asia-Pacific countries are significant consumers of mineral supplies, the session analysed the scope for greater trans-Pacific cooperation. It was proposed that countries in both sides of the Pacific increase infor-mation exchange to ensure that minerals sent to Asia are from legal producers. At the moment the monitoring of the supply chain is done occasionally by importers (mostly in Asia), on their own initiative. The exchange of information between law enforcement authorities and the establishment of a trans-Pacific system to monitor mineral supplies could help reduce informality and weaken organised crime.

Speakers in this session discussed financial services integration, considering four main opportunities: the acceleration of growth in the four economies of Pacific Alliance states com-pared to other South American players; the size of the Pacific Alliance market as a major incentive in attracting capital; the appetite to diversify investment streams; and the aim to harmonise the taxation of capital flows and currency exchanges.

While there was agreement on matters of incentivising investment by reducing tariffs and taxes on transactions, there was controversy about sources of investment in the Pacific Alliance countries. This discrepancy was based on what each speaker perceived to be the immediate needs and best ways to deliver the economic and social goals of the Pacific Alliance. Infrastructure was one topic of contention, with some in the panel maintain-ing that it is critical to invest in infrastructure to ensure that the states in the Pacific Alliance can thrive long-term, while others referred to the need to balance risk in portfolios, infra-structure being on the risky side of investment. Pension funds were brought up as a major ele-ment in the integration agenda, so the matter

of whether or not infrastructure should be a large part of portfolios was heatedly debated.

In discussing diversification of income streams and business alliances, speakers con-curred that in both regions SMEs are critical, far more than in Europe and the US. Integration there, they claimed, needs to revolve around ensuring that lending mechanisms become far more robust. The relative absence of suitable capital markets, especially for new enterprises, and the perceived lack of support from the state to small businesses, suggests that cre-ative Asian models can be shared across the two regions. For example, the panel discussed how Hometown Investment Trust Funds can

go a long way to provide financing to SMEs, having been successfully exported as a model from Japan to Peru, Cambodia and Vietnam.

The panel made clear that creating the mechanisms to inject capital is only part of the solution. The session also addressed the impor-tance of harmonising taxation, as well as matters of currency and liquidity. The Chiang Mai Initiative was raised as a particularly successful model of currency reserve fund. Its success is attributable to the fact that participant countries have a high level of trust and knowledge of each other’s macroeconomic features. Members of the Pacific Alliance, moving towards financial integration, will need to consider that unlike trade integration, financial integration is about sharing risks and promoting transparency in ways that enhance their relationship as well as an understanding of the upside and downside of currency collaboration.

The session also yielded a consensus on MILA (Mercado Integrado Latinoamericano), namely that efforts are not as yet sufficient to ensure financial integration, and that structural issues will be best addressed in coordinated micro-reforms which, in turn, will help deliver a broader Pacific Alliance framework.

Special Session III: Organised Crime and the Informal Mining Sector

Special Session IV: Financial Services Integration: Asian and Pacific Alliance Experiences

ORGANISED CRIME CARTAGENA DIALOGUEPACIFIC ALLIANCE

IX Summit of the Pacific Alliance, Mexico, 2014 (Alianza Pacifico)

12 | APRIL 2015 IISS NEWS

The Ukrainian Crisis: A Test for Europe and the World

Hours after a ceasefire declaration with rebel forces on 9 December, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko delivered an impassioned IISS Fullerton Lecture demonstrating his determination to achieve the ‘Ukrainian dream’ of becoming a democratic European state. He described the resilience of the Euromaidan protestors in November 2013, followed by what he saw as Russia’s betrayal of Ukraine through its annexation of Crimea.

Poroshenko expressed his intent to concurrently pursue both peace and political reform through the ‘Ukraine 2020’ presidential programme, with anti-corruption high on the agenda. He described a Europe that is out of balance and under threat, facing a choice between liberal democratic or repressive authoritarian values. He warned that the international com-munity must not be deluded by the ‘comfortable lie’ that the civil war in Ukraine is solely a domestic crisis, but rather acknowledge the uncomfort-able truth that Europe stands at the core of the conflict. Watch the lecture here.

Petro Poroshenko, Ukrainian President

Sihasak Phuangketkeow, Permanent Secretary, Thai Ministry of Foreign Affairs

A Conversation with Sihasak Phuangketkeow

On 16 December, Sihasak Phuangketkeow, Permanent Secretary of the Thai Ministry of Foreign Affairs, participated in a conversation with Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director of IISS-Asia. The discussion focused on recent political developments in Thailand, and particularly on the back-ground to and aftermath of the 22 May 2014 coup. The coup led to the installation of a military junta led by army commander-in-chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha, who was subsequently appointed prime minister. Dr Huxley also discussed with Khun Sihasak the impact of the coup on Thailand’s foreign relations, including the country’s links with the United States and other Western countries. Following the conversation, Khun Sihasak took questions from members of the audience. Watch the event on the IISS website.

FULLERTON LECTURESIISS–ASIA

China’s Political System and Its Evolution

On 12 February, CEO of Chengwei Capital and IISS Council Member Eric Li delivered a Fullerton Lecture on what he regarded as China’s ability to surpass Western political systems. Li cited the arguments of three political scientists who point towards political decay within Western liberal democ-racies, and juxtaposed these against the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) ability to deliver reform. Li pointed to the reform programme launched at the November 2013 Third Plenum, as well as Xi Jinping’s re-centralisation of power and anti-corruption drive. As part of this move, he added, Xi had established the Central Reform Commission to drive economic policy and the Central National Security Commission to oversee both domestic and international security policy. Li argued that the CCP may eventually suc-cumb to ossification, but was young and robust enough to continue reform for the next few decades. Watch the event on the IISS website. Eric Li, CEO of Chengwei Capital and IISS Council Member

IISS NEWS APRIL 2015 | 13

Dr Ng Eng Hen, Singaporean Defence Minister

Strengthening Cooperation to Enhance Regional Security in Asia

During his keynote address to the third Fullerton Forum, Singaporean Defence Minister Dr Ng Eng Hen discussed the threat of Islamic extremism in Asia following the emergence of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS). He suggested that this development should be seen as part of the same continuum precipitated by the historic 11 September attacks on the United States in 2001. Speaking to 66 delegates from 22 countries at this Sherpa Meeting for the next Shangri-La Dialogue (29–31 May 2015), Dr Ng

said that when the threat of ISIS had been cur-tailed, other rogue groups would emerge to replace it, just as ISIS itself replaced al-Qaeda.

Another issue relevant to this year’s Shangri-La Dialogue concerned relations among Asia’s great powers, said Dr Ng. For example, on the sidelines of the 2014 APEC Summit the United States and China announced bilateral deals, and China joined the US-organised Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) Exercise for the first time.

Other important issues challenging regional security included the stability of particular Asian countries such as Thailand and Myanmar, and transnational threats arising from natural disasters and cyber vulnerabilities. To manage these challenges, countries needed to improve multilateralism and focus on practical measures to help tackle ‘hard security’ problems, said Dr Ng. Brunei, for example, had proposed a direct

communication link between ASEAN Defence Ministerial Meeting (ADMM) members, and Vietnam had suggested a no first use of force agreement. After his address, Dr Ng responded to questions from Fullerton Forum delegates. Watch the address on the IISS website.

The Military Balance 2015 Launch

The IISS launched the 2015 edition of The Military Balance, the annual assessment of global military capabilities and defence economics, before an international press audience on 11 February.

The ‘salient strategic reality of the year’, said IISS Director-General and CEO Dr John Chipman, ‘was the re-emergence of conflict in Europe and the ever complicating and widening nature of extreme Islamic terrorist groups’ activity in the Middle East and Africa.’

While a revisionist Russia has challenged the European security order, the threat from extreme Islamic terrorists also strengthened during the year, and ‘the rise of ISIS and the flow of jihadists in and out of vari-ous Middle East theatres of war has become a major pre-occupation for European states.’ While coalition air operations might lead to tactical victories against ISIS, these alone cannot strategically defeat it. Complex security dynamics across the Middle East and North Africa meant that regional defence spending was already high. Growing insecurity and conflict have contributed to a further acceleration. ‘In 2011, average real defence spending growth in the Middle East and North Africa region was 3.5%. In each year since, we estimate it has increased by an average of 10%.’

Europe’s NATO members, confronted with an increasingly complex security environment on the continent and in their near-abroad, were

mindful of a defence spending trend that, overall, was still downward. European defence spending was, ‘in 2014 cumulatively 8% lower, in real terms, than in 2010.’ As in previous years, there was a marked contrast with Asia where overall defence spending again increased – since 2010 by more than a quarter in nominal terms, growing to more than US$340bn in 2014. In some cases, this spending is supporting a growth in advanced-capability platform procurements and defence-related research and development. In 2014 spending increases in emerging economies more than offset Western reductions; ‘overall, real global defence expenditure in 2014 rose by 1.7% after three years of reductions.’

Following the London launch, members of the Institute’s Defence and Military Analysis Programme (DMAP) travelled to Berlin on 23–24 February for meetings hosted by the Koerber Foundation and the German Defence Ministry to present insights from The Military Balance 2015. Newly appointed DMAP Director Dr Bastian Giegerich was accompanied by Brigadier Ben Barry (retd), Senior Fellow for Land Warfare, and Douglas Barrie, Senior Fellow for Military Aerospace. Two meetings at Koerber, one with young leaders, the other with German government officials and parliamentarians resulted in wide-ranging discussion of contemporary defence and security concerns. A similarly fruitful event was held with German Defence Ministry officials. The group, this time joined by James Hackett, Editor of The Military Balance, travelled to Brussels on 24–25 March to engage officials from NATO and the EU as well as government representatives and academics in a discussion of the 2015 book. Hosted by the Egmont Institute and the Belgian Royal Higher Institute for Defence, the IISS team explained global strategic trends analysed in the book and assessed defence-capability developments in Europe, Russia, and China.

The Military Balance 2015 is packed with defence facts and objective analysis, as well as charts, graphics and maps supporting the trends outlined in the book. Specialist essays focus on: military space systems, directed energy weapons, and hybrid warfare, while this year’s wall chart carries analysis of Russia’s military modernisation process and selected force dispositions. Watch the launch here.

IISS experts talk to the press following the launch

IISS–ASIA

EXPERTS EVENTS

FULLERTON FORUM

14 | APRIL 2015 IISS NEWS

Countering Ebola in Sierra Leone: The British Military Contribution

Last year’s outbreak of Ebola in West Africa rapidly became a regional medical emergency. Part of the international response was the deployment of a British inter-agency task force to assist the government of Sierra Leone in countering the disease, as was discussed at an IISS event on 11 March. The deployment included volunteer medical staff from the National Health Service, military medical staff, logisticians, communication special-ists and engineers as well as Royal Marines and naval helicopters.

Command and control was provided by the headquarters of the British Army’s 104 Logistic Support Brigade, commanded by Brigadier Steve McMahon. At Arundel House he described the establishment of a Joint Inter-Agency Task Force conjoining British military personnel, the Department for International Development and the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, with the participation of NGOs, the World Health Organization and the government and armed forces of Sierra Leone, as ‘opening a new chapter in cross-government integrated operations’.

The urgency of the situation and need for a comprehensive approach compelled diverse actors to achieve a ‘tactical trinity of unity of command, unity of purpose and unity of effort’. Clear political directives were trans-lated into sound command-and-control arrangements at all layers, thus effectively integrating a wide range of capabilities, from logisticians and engineers to analysts and medical staff. The infection was successfully con-tained by the deployment of combined teams down to village level, the construction of six UK-funded treatment units to provide isolation and care, and the conduct of a large influence campaign to change behaviours.

Meeting NATO’s Future Ambitions: IISS Workshop

At the September 2014 Wales Summit, NATO leaders pledged to reverse the downward trend in defence spending and to provide the capabilities that will be needed to meet future challenges. They agreed on measures to boost military readiness, and on new forms of cooperation such as the Framework Nations Concept.

On 17 March, in the last of a series of events sponsored by NATO, the UK Ministry of Defence and the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, rep-resentatives from the three sponsors, as well as diplomats, government officials, military officers, academics and IISS staff gathered at Arundel House for an off-the-record seminar to consider the key factors influenc-ing NATO’s future level of ambition. Keynote talks were given by Danish General Knud Bartels, Chairman of the NATO Military Committee, and Lord George Robertson, former UK defence Secretary and NATO secre-tary general.

Delegates discussed a wide variety of topics including whether cur-rent levels of ambition were appropriate to deal with modern threats and the ability of governments to generate the defence policies, capabilities and budgets that will allow them to put these commitments into practice. They also considered the prospects for reversing the decades-long trend of declining defence funding and improving cooperation between NATO states, as well as what new themes might be contained in NATO’s next Political Guidance.

DEFENCE AND MILITARY ANALYSIS EXPERTS

Unloading an RAF C17 in Sierra Leone during the UK’s response to combating Ebola (MoD/Crown copyright)

Flags at half mast outside the NATO headquarters, January 2015 (NATO)

BUY THE MILITARY BALANCE 2015 ONLINE: www.iiss.org/publications/military-balance

NEW FEATURES FOR 2015 � New country analyses including China, Colombia,

France, Israel, Japan, Kenya, Ukraine and the United Arab Emirates, as well as analysis of regional defence and security developments such as ISIS in Syria and Iraq .

� New thematic analytical essays on hybrid warfare, directed energy weapons and US space systems .

� A new Military Balance Wall Chart, with a focus on Russia’s armed forces .

� New technical equipment-focused graphics, including on the development of Russia’s Flanker combat-aircraft variants, the US Navy’s Zumwalt-class destroyer and Israel’s Merkava IV main battle tank .

� Updated graphics feature on comparative defence statistics, with a focus on defence economics, defence industry and major land, sea and air capabilities .

� Updated national capability summaries .

� A new section detailing ‘observed equipment’ for selected non-state armed groups, includ-ing the Peshmerga in northern Iraq, separa-tist forces in eastern Ukraine and Boko Haram in Nigeria, among others .

� A table of military training exercises, arranged by region .

� New maps on France’s realigned military pres-ence in Africa, the conflict in eastern Ukraine, and AMISOM’s Operation Indian Ocean in Somalia .

THEMILITARY BALANCEThe annual assessment of global military capabilities and defence economics

IISS NEWS APRIL 2015 | 15

The Geo-economics and Geopolitics of Transnational Organised Crime

On 1 February, a Global Perspectives Series discussion panel was organised by IISS-Middle East following a three-day conference on organised crime. Diplomats, subject experts and corporate members attended a ninety-minute session chaired by Sir John Jenkins, IISS-Middle East’s Executive Director. Leading on the various topics covered were IISS experts Nigel Inkster, Director of Transnational Threats and Political Risk, Ben Barry, Senior Fellow for Land Warfare, and Virginia Comolli, Research Fellow for Security and Development.

Discussions covered a wide range of issues concerning the movement and prosperity of transnational organised crime, the technology employed in criminal activities and the movement of people and goods. Additional topics included state-weakening factors and severe regional crises, with a focus on opportunities for crime organisations to benefit from the current geopolitical status and further develop their income sources and stake-holder ties.

The panel also gave details on the implications of transnational organ-

ised crime on the MENA and the Saharan and East African regions, including the increase in human trafficking there. Highlighted were the roles of failed states and civil strife in bringing criminal organisations and jihadist movements closer. The event concluded with a discussion of the cyber-crime challenge faced by countries and organisations, and the dif-ficulties of rounding up perpetrators and legally persecuting them. Watch the event here.

The IISS Forum for Arctic Climate Change and Security

On 18 March, the IISS Forum for Arctic Climate Change and Security held a workshop at Arundel House on the ‘Benefits and Limitations of Arctic Development: Arctic Peoples’ and Industry Views’.

Climate change, market dynamics and technological advances are cur-rently shaping an economic agenda for the Arctic for the coming decades, which in turn will drive geopolitical and military trends in the region. An important aspect of economic development in the Arctic that is often overlooked or under-emphasised is the position of the Arctic Peoples, who have histories, identities, lifestyles and languages that are separate from those of the Westphalian states in which they live. There is a diversity of views between and within the Arctic Peoples about development in the region, and the issues – political, social and economic – vary between dif-ferent parts of the Arctic. The complexity of these views is not always well represented in discussions of Arctic affairs beyond the region.

The workshop was intended to bring a nuanced understanding of Arctic Peoples’ viewpoints on Arctic economic development to a wider policy audience, and offer space for Arctic and industry representatives to engage on questions important to the socio-economic future of the region. Among the speakers were Athabaskans, Inuit and Sami from Alaska, Canada, Norway and Sweden, representing indigenous peoples’ civil-society, commercial and political organisations. Other speakers included senior corporate officials from the fishing, engineering and oil and gas

industries. Workshop participants included London-based diplomats from most of the Arctic nations, UK diplomats and MPs, several members of the House of Lords Select Committee on the Arctic, academics, analysts and industry leaders. The workshop centred around four overlapping and interconnected themes: economic growth, environmental stewardship, respecting the Arctic way of life and interaction and engagement between industry and Arctic Peoples.

The workshop was chaired by Dr Jeffrey Mazo, Consulting Senior Fellow for Environmental Security and Science Policy.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITYEXPERTS

The village of Siorapaluk, Greenland (US National Snow and Ice Data Center/Andy Mahoney)

UN and National Police in Timor-Leste targeting human trafficking (UN/Martine Perret)

GEO-ECONOMICS AND STRATEGYEXPERTS IISS–MIDDLE EAST

16 | APRIL 2015 IISS NEWS

Upholding the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty

On 6 March the US State Department’s Assistant Secretary for International Security and Non-proliferation, Thomas Countryman, spoke at Arundel House. His remarks provided an optimistic assessment of the state of the non-proliferation regime. Yet although Countryman ranked the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as the ‘most successful multilateral treaty in the history of diplomacy’, he recognised that it faces numerous chal-lenges ahead of an international Review Conference taking place in April and May. These included the lack of progress towards a WMD-free zone in the Middle East and the pace of nuclear disarmament as viewed by nuclear- and non-nuclear-weapon states. Read the transcript here.

Kuala Lumpur Workshop

On 25 February, the IISS also organised a workshop in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia entitled ‘Furthering the Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Agenda: Challenges and Expectations Relating to the UN Sanctions on North Korea’. The event was the latest in a series of meetings in support of the UN Panel of Experts on North Korea. With the assistance of the Institute of Strategic and International Studies Malaysia (ISIS Malaysia), the work-shop brought together representatives from the Panel, Cambodia, China, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, as well as practitioners from the private sector in several of these countries. It was designed to explain the Panel’s mandate, provide guidance on sanc-tions implementation best practices and highlight North Korea’s evasion methods. The workshop also provided an opportunity for participants to discuss the difficulties involved in implementing sanctions.

UN Sanctions Workshops

As part of ongoing collaboration with the United Nations Panel of Experts on Iran, the IISS held a workshop in Amman, Jordan on 11–12 February to discuss the challenges of implementing sanctions against Iran and share best practices for compliance. The workshop convened more than 50 gov-ernment officials and industry representatives from six states in the region along with experts from the UN Panel, North America and the IISS. The meeting was mainly devoted to UN sanctions and export-control meas-ures and included sessions on conventional arms transfers and the current negotiations, accompanied by an assessment of potential future sanctions developments. Participants also discussed unilateral sanctions imposed by the EU, the US and Canada, many of which have a secondary impact.

Eliminating Chemical Weapons

The successful destruction of Syria’s chemical-weapons stockpile last year fanned hopes for universalising the Chemical Weapons Convention, to which only six states are currently not party. Two of them are in the Middle East, Egypt and Israel. Both are being asked if there is a compel-ling strategic rationale for remaining on the outside. On 15 January the Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Programme organised a meeting to discuss this question and the status of efforts to eliminate chemical weap-ons featuring: Peter Sawczak, Head of the Government Relations and Political Affairs Branch of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), based in The Hague; Ambassador Shimon Stein, a former Israeli diplomat and Senior Research Fellow at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies; and Nomi Bar-Yaacov, an Associate Fellow at Chatham House and a member of the board of the ACRONYM Institute for Disarmament Diplomacy.

NON-PROLIFERATION AND DISARMAMENT EXPERTS

A chemical weapons destruction facility Ruwagha, Libya (OPCW)

IAEA inspectors making an inventory of fuel assemblies on a training exercise (IAEA)

Iranian heavy-water production facility at Arak, south of Tehran (iStock/EdStock)

Victory Day parade, Pyongyang, North Korea 2013 (Stefan Krasowski)

NON-PROLIFERATION SANCTIONS

IISS NEWS APRIL 2015 | 17

Indian military trucks delivering supplies in Jammu & Kashmir (iStock/zanskar)

Emergency workers clear rubble following a bomb blast in Peshawar, Pakistan (iStock/EdStock)

An Indian soldier near the border with China (Shankar S .)

SOUTH ASIAEXPERTS

Resumption of India–Pakistan Talks: The Way Forward

Ambassador Kanwal Sibal, former Foreign Secretary of India, provided a pessimistic perspective on the prospects for the renewal of official talks between India and Pakistan. Speaking at Arundel House on 25 March, he declared that India had initiated talks several times in the past, but that these discussions had been disrupted by Pakistani or Pakistan-based terrorists. He also suggested that Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif might no longer be interested in pursuing talks, given his recent, strongly-worded statements on the Kashmir dispute during a visit to the UN General Assembly. Ambassador Sibal emphasised that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi remained keen on conducting outreach to Pakistan in order to increase regional stability and thereby facilitate the work of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). He added, however, that if and when talks were resumed their format would need to change before any significant ‘breakthrough’ regarding relations would be possible.

Pakistan’s Fight Against TerrorismOn 24 February, Pakistani Minister for the Interior and Narcotics Control Chaudhry Nisar Ali discussed his country’s fight against terrorists, describing them as those ‘who take up arms against the state [and] do not subscribe to any law, religion or norms of civilisation’. He noted that the ongoing Zarb-e-Azb anti-terrorist operation in the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan had been stepped up, and that a new 20-point National Action Plan against terrorism had been instituted with a full political consensus. Moreover, the Twenty-First Amendment Act, 2015, had been passed to provide the required constitutional validity for the establishment of new military courts where terrorists would be tried. Nisar also explained that as the minister responsible for Pakistan’s counter-terrorism policy, he had been able to ensure coordination and sharing of intelligence among Pakistan’s 33 intelligence agencies. He added that madrassa reform was also taking place. Yet the minister also emphasised that Pakistan should be given more time to implement its new anti-terrorism policy, and warned

that a change of attitude was required within the government to allow for ‘unity of implementation’. Finally, he urged the West to stop drawing a conclusive connection between Islam and terrorism, but to instead partici-pate in a unified international anti-terrorism effort. Watch the discussion here.

Pakistan’s Security PerspectivesIn a rare event of its kind, Army Chief of Pakistan General Raheel Sharif addressed a select private gathering at Arundel House on 16 January during his first official visit to the UK. According to a report issued by government news agency the Associated Press of Pakistan, the general said

that the Zarb-e-Azb operation against militants in Pakistan was making good progress. He also discussed cooperation with the UK on security matters, relations with Afghanistan and the resettlement of Temporarily Displaced Persons (TDPs) from the North Waziristan Agency. General Sharif then referred to Pakistan’s National Action Plan (NAP), describing it as a comprehensive long-term strategy to address extremism and terror-ism in the country.

India’s Policy Toward China: Land Border Challenges and Opportunities

On 11 December 2014, senior Indian journalist Dr Manoj Joshi spoke at Arundel House on the complex nature of Sino-Indian relations. Joshi, also a Distinguished Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) in New Delhi, discussed Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s policy objectives with regard to China, identifying trade as a prominent concern. He noted that China had similar goals, as demonstrated by its recent pledge to invest US$20billion in India by 2019. He then discussed the various obstacles to Sino-Indian engagement, citing a September 2014 border confrontation as a key reminder of ongoing tensions between the neighbouring countries. Watch the event here.

PAKISTANINDIACHINA

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Asian Engagement in Africa: Chinese and Japanese Experiences in South Sudan

Asian engagement in the African continent over the past 15 years has increased considerably both at the geo-strategic level, in terms of large investment-driven infrastructure projects, and at lower levels through events such as the opening of supermarket chains and the development of small manufacturing.

China and Japan are playing a key role on the continent and South Sudan provides an interesting case study of Asian involvement. The newest country in the world is, in spite of an ongoing conflict, ‘open for business’, and while it will continue to maintain close ties with the United States it welcomes investors from all over the world. China and Japan, albeit by adopting different approaches, have both proved to be valuable partners.

These were the issues explored at a 16 March roundtable with Dr Mitsuaki Furukawa, Chief Representative for the South Sudan Office of the

Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), Akok Madut, PhD candi-date at SOAS and diplomat at the South Sudanese Embassy in London, and Jeremy Taylor, also a PhD candidate and Commonwealth Scholar at SOAS with extensive experience working in post-conflict African states. Watch the event here.

International Responses to Hybrid Conflict in Fragile States

NATO, like other national and international forces, has been adapting to the challenges accompanying hybrid conflict – as exemplified by the Ukrainian crisis and the rise of ISIS – in which non-state groups use a wide array of regular and irregular tactics. Dr Jamie Shea, Deputy Assistant Secretary General for Emerging Security Challenges at NATO, presented his views at an off-the-record event on 24 February.

The event highlighted the challenges that hybrid armed groups pose for the international community. There are calls for international actors to build rapid-intervention capabilities and at the same time to increase the resilience of state armed forces against hybrid tactics. There are also concerns about the increasing involvement of non-state armed groups with criminality, since this makes negotiations for a political solution to conflicts more difficult.

The Strategic Implications of Organised Criminal Markets

A joint initiative by the Security and Development and Geo-economics and Strategy programmes brought to the IISS-Middle East offices an interna-tional conference aimed at strengthening understanding of transnational organised crime (TOC). Moreover, the event sought to explore the impli-cations of TOC through the sharing of ideas and best practices among law-enforcement practitioners and members of the business and academic communities across countries and sectors.

Participants in the conference, held from 30 January to 1 February, looked at TOC’s implications for the corporate sector as well as for stability, good governance and economic development in emerging and developing regions. Through the use of case studies and real-life experience, attendees examined concrete examples and, more importantly, engaged in a pro-ductive discussion on counter-measures to be implemented at the local, national and international levels. The full conference report and agenda are available here.

Unloading seized drugs from USS Carr during counter transnational organised crime operations (US Navy/Corey Barker)

Military figures without insignia seen during the conflict in Ukraine (NATO)

Japan SDF Personnel in South Sudan (Government of Japan)

SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT EXPERTS

IISS NEWS APRIL 2015 | 19

An Update on the Ukraine Crisis: The New Minsk Agreements and Beyond

On 3 March, Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia Samuel Charap spoke at a members’ event at Arundel House. He provided an update on the 12 February ‘Minsk 2’ agreement on the conflict in eastern Ukraine and dis-cussed its implications for Ukraine, Russia and Western policy.

Following renewed violence in early 2015, the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany met for over 16 hours in Minsk to finalise a new 13-point agreement to address the conflict in eastern Ukraine. The stipulations included a ceasefire and significant political concessions from the central government to the rebel-held areas.

While acknowledging that this new agreement was an important step forward, Charap called it ‘the end of the beginning, rather than the beginning of the end’. The document put Ukrainian domestic political compromise at the centre of the conflict-resolution process. It also laid out a very clear sequence for the most controversial provisions.

In the short and medium terms, there were serious risks to the agree-ment’s implementation, including escalation on the ground. In the long term, if the document is fully implemented, the political compromise

detailed in the plan would actually need to function. The Minsk agree-ment transforms Ukraine into a de facto asymmetrical confederation. Not only will that provide Russia a lever of instability in eastern Ukraine that it can use to prevent Kiev’s Western integration, but this new arrangement will be hard to sustain within Ukraine given the disproportionate powers accorded to two parts of the country.

Moreover, Charap noted that any Ukraine-only agreement is necessar-ily a temporary ceasefire in the broader conflict between Russia and the West; conflict would break out again, in Ukraine or elsewhere, as long as the core dispute over the regional order in Eastern Europe and Eurasia remained unresolved.

Singapore’s Strategic Outlook and Challenges

On 4 March, IISS–Asia Executive Director Dr Tim Huxley addressed a members’ meeting at Arundel House regarding what he saw as some of the most important and enduring elements of Singapore’s foreign and security policies. He then assessed the potential major challenges to Singapore’s external security over the coming decade. Dr Huxley pointed in particular to the potential for more complicated relations with the city-state’s immediate neighbours, Indonesia and Malaysia. Moreover, he discussed the ongoing need to manage relations with the United States and China with dexterity. He also outlined the threat posed by domestic politi-cal developments to Singapore’s capacity to manage its external security environment effectively. Dr Huxley concluded by highlighting the need

for new strategic thinking that might go some way towards matching the strategic flair displayed by Lee Kuan Yew, S. Rajaratanam and Goh Keng Swee in Singapore’s early years. Their leadership, he noted, was crucial to the country’s survival as a small state in a turbulent region.

Women in Violent Extremist Organisations

On 24 March, Virginia Comolli, Research Fellow for Security and Development, chaired a discussion event on ‘Women in Violent Extremist Organisations’ at Arundel House. Two prominent women in the field spoke to an engaged audience and a lively Q&A followed; moreover, the attendees had the opportunity to speak to the panel further during a drinks reception after the event. Joana Cook, a PhD candidate at the War Studies department at King’s College London, shared some of her research into the

motivations and experiences of women in violent organisations such as the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS). She explained the importance of paying attention to the choices these women make and the reasons behind them, and provided insight into the roles these women can play within such organisations. Rachel Briggs OBE, a Senior Fellow at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue, showed the room a video made by extremedialogue.org, a Canadian activist enterprise that seeks to explore the experiences of those affected by extremist propaganda. The discussion that followed touched on a range of issues relating to the specific involvement of women in groups like ISIS, and highlighted the importance, especially in relation to counter-terrorism efforts, of listening to their stories. Watch the discus-sion at the IISS website.

OSCE monitoring of the withdrawal of heavy weapons, Ukraine, March 2015 (OCSE)

Singapore Navy frigate RSS Stalwart ahead of two US vessels in the Pacific Ocean (Nicolas C . Lopez/US Navy)

MEMBERSHIPUKRAINESOUTHEAST ASIASECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT

20 | APRIL 2015 IISS NEWS

International Diplomacy and the Ukraine Crisis

On 15 December, Dr Samuel Charap, Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, chaired a panel at the IISS–US on international diplomatic efforts in response to the Ukraine crisis. The speakers were experienced former diplomats and negotiators from Russia, the US and the EU: Vladimir Lukin, former Russian Ambassador to the US and Special Envoy of the Russian President for the February 21st Negotiations on Ukraine; Richard Burt, Managing Director, McLarty Associates, former US Ambassador to Germany and Chief US Negotiator for the START Agreement; and Michael Leigh, Senior Advisor, German Marshall Fund (GMF) and former Director-

General for Enlargement, European Commission. They discussed ongoing efforts to address the Ukraine crisis and presented their perspectives on the prospects for a diplomatic solution.

Lukin asserted that the central reasons for shortcomings in earlier attempts were the deterioration of US–Russia relations and the percep-tion of Russia’s subordinate status in the relationship over the past twenty years.

Burt described a diplomatic deficit between the West and Russia, which had worsened since the start of the crisis. He argued that the absence of political will, a lack of responsiveness from the Obama administration and domestic narratives of American and Russian exceptionalism hindered a diplomatic resolution to the crisis.

Leigh identified two misguided narratives of EU involvement in the crisis. Firstly, he explained that the EU Association Agreement with Ukraine was designed as an alternative to EU membership and that the EU was not open to Ukraine’s accession to the bloc. Secondly, he argued that the Association Agreement did not force Ukraine to choose between Russia and the West. Leigh emphasised that the EU’s goals were the stabilisation, democratisation and modernisation of Ukraine, not the isolation of Russia.

According to the panellists, a resolution to the crisis would require the full implementation of the Minsk Accords, the adoption of some form of decentralisation in Ukraine, and Russian acceptance of Ukrainian sov-ereignty and territorial integrity. This event can be watched on the IISS website here.

Nikishina, Ukraine, March 2015 (People in Need/EC Echo)

RUSSIA–EURASIA EXPERTSUKRAINE

New Publication: Armed Conflict Survey 2015

The Armed Conflict Survey (ACS) is a new annual publication that provides yearly data on fatalities, refugees and internally displaced people for all major armed conflicts, alongside in-depth analysis of their political, mili-tary and humanitarian dimensions. The first edition of the book covers the key developments and context of more than 40 conflicts, including those in Afghanistan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Iraq, Myanmar, Syria and Yemen.

The ACS features essays by some of the world’s leading authorities on armed conflict, who write on subjects such as:

• the development of jihadism after 9/11;• hybrid warfare;• refugees and internally displaced people;• criminality and conflict;• the evolution of peacekeeping operations

The authors discuss the principal thematic and crossregional trends that have emerged over the past year, complementing the granular approach to each conflict at the core of the book.

PUBLICATIONS

The ACS also includes maps, infographics and multi-year data, as well as the highly regarded IISS Chart of Conflict.

The book is edited by Nigel Inkster, Director of Transnational Threats and Political Risk at the IISS.

The Armed Conflict Survey will be launched 20 May 2015. It is available for pre-order; copies will be dispatched after the launch. IISS members can claim a 25% discount on the cover price.

See the website for details.

IISS NEWS APRIL 2015 | 21

Pakistan 2015 and BeyondOn 24 February, Dr Kiran Hassan discussed the state of democratisation in Pakistan and potential implications of President Hussain’s rule for the nation’s future. She explained that due to widespread corruption, a poor human rights record and military involvement in politics, the Pakistani population might soon ‘lose the appetite for democracy’. Unlike its neigh-bour to the East, Dr Hassan argued, the Pakistani democratic process has only deteriorated over the years.

On the other hand, 2015 presents Islamabad with an opportunity to invigorate political ties with India and Afghanistan. Pakistani-Indian relations might improve due to mutually beneficial trade and be further fuelled by India’s aspirations for a seat on the UN Security Council (which requires easing tensions with its nuclear-armed neighbour). Pakistan’s rapport with Afghanistan may also improve because new leadership in

both nations could create the necessary political space for restarting rela-tions from ‘a clean slate’.

While Dr Hassan’s assessment of the country’s foreign policy was largely optimistic, her view of internal problems provided a stark contrast. Well-known challenges, ranging from violent extremism to shortcomings in the country’s human-rights record clearly remain. The military leader-ship continues its crackdowns on non-state actors in a selective manner, targeting only those elements that are hostile to Pakistani authorities while turning a blind eye to more regime-friendly extremists. Moreover, minorities and women in the country continue to face oppression and dis-crimination on social and institutional levels.

Dr Hassan concluded by describing her optimism for Pakistan on many fronts. She noted, however, that while the nation has real prospects for advancing its diplomacy in 2015, any gains would be unsustainable without effective counter-terrorism measures and progress on its other domestic challenges.

IISS–USEXPERTS

Power Shifts and New Blocs in the Global Trading System

On 11 March, the IISS–US hosted a launch event for the Adelphi book Power Shifts and New Blocs in the Global Trading System. The event featured the vol-ume’s editor and Director of the Geo-Economics and Strategy Programme at the IISS, Dr Sanjaya Baru, and two of the collection’s authors, Professor of International Economics and Business at Johns Hopkins University, Dr Pravin Krishna, and Senior Associate in the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Dr Ashley Tellis. Dr Baru described the origin of the edited volume and outlined many of the key themes in the book, including the rise of a multipolar trading system, and the subsequent impact on global trading patterns, including the specific phenomenon of an increasing number of bilateral and regional

preferential trade agreements. This topic was further developed by Dr Krishna, who described many of the challenges in progressing beyond the current global trading system and the inherent limitations to a strict PTA approach at the expense of a truly global, WTO-focused agreement. Dr Tellis, on the other hand, explained that trade imbalance, deficits and other ‘side effects’ of the expansion of free trade present a wide range of challenges for US foreign policy in particular, as the established power adapting to a rising China.

The speakers also discussed the future of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations and the agreement’s potential impact on the global political and economic landscape. A particular emphasis was placed on the role of TPP in East Asia, where the US aspires to remain engaged in the ‘vibrant economic communities’ of the region, in light of growing Chinese trading ties with the same states. During the audience question and answer session, the discussion focused on the role of emerging powers, like China and India, as well as the assessment of policy choices for the United States in adjusting to the realities of the new world. The event was chaired by IISS–US Managing Director Bryce Campbell.

Chaired by Dr Nicholas Redman, Director of Editorial; Editor, Adelphi books at the IISS, this Adelphi book was also launched at Arundel House, London on 12 March. Speakers included Dr Sanjaya Baru, Director for Geo-Economics and Strategy, IISS and Philip Stephens, Associate Editor and chief political commentator, Financial Times. The discussion can be viewed on the IISS website.

A meeting in Berlin with Germany’s Chancellor, Angela Merkel, and the heads of the WTO, the World Bank, the IMF, the OECD and the ILO (OECD/Axel Schmidt)

PAKISTAN GEO-ECONOMICS

The Rise of the Islamic State, the US Military Campaign, and the Future of Iraq

On 26 February, Professor Toby Dodge, Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East, spoke at the IISS–US about the political climate that led to the

rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) and the prospects for the US military campaign. Far from being an aberration, Dodge asserts that ISIS is a violent symptom of a set of systemic social and political problems and that, as such, a rote military response will not be an effective long-term solution. He discussed the structural failures of the post-2003 Iraqi state that enabled ISIS to gain power, and criticised the use of proxies like the Kurdish Peshmerga and primarily Shiite militias for worsening Sunni mar-ginalisation. The event was chaired by IISS–US Managing Director Bryce Campbell and can be viewed on the IISS website.

22 | APRIL 2015 IISS NEWS

IISS–US EXPERTS

Responding to the Growing Threat of Homegrown Terrorists in Europe

On 27 January, IISS–US hosted Dr Angel M. Rabasa, Senior Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation and Dr Jackson Janes, President of the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies (AICGS) at Johns Hopkins SAIS to address the growing threat of home-grown terrorism in Europe.

Dr Rabasa began the conversation with a high-level analysis of the state of radicalism in Europe. He discussed the relationship between the integration of Muslim communities in Europe and radicalisation, which share a weak correlation. He posited the argument that home-grown ter-

rorism is a transfer of conflict from the home countries to their diaspora communities in Europe, using Pakistanis in the United Kingdom and Turks in Germany as contrasting examples. He discussed the challenge of containing radicalisation in European prisons, where converts to Islam are particularly vulnerable to extremist rhetoric, and where authorities face an uphill battle in monitoring developments. Finally, Dr Rabasa identified areas of progress in European counter-radicalisation programmes, along with the challenges those programmes face going forward.

Dr Janes provided the German perspective, specifically pertaining to the sizeable Turkish community in Germany. He compared the experi-ence of diaspora communities in the United States to those in Germany, framing the contrast as ‘immigration versus integration’, and noting that this contrast determines how diaspora communities identify them-selves. He pointed out that the communities in Europe typically have stronger ties to their home countries than in the US, and that these ties create a sense of sub-nationalism in the host countries. He argued that the next chapter of Europe’s history lacks a cohesive narrative or the requisite leadership to write that narrative, and that radicalisation plays into this problem. Dr Janes concluded by discussing the need for more role models in the Turkish community in Germany to counter radicalism among youth.

Finally, the panellists responded to several questions from the audi-ence, including how to properly define and identify success, how to deal with an ideology that justifies and embraces murder, and ideas for broader cooperation in combating radicalism. Bryce Campbell, IISS-US Managing Director, served as the moderator for this discussion, and it can be viewed on the IISS website.

NPT Review Conference PreviewIn anticipation of the upcoming Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference in New York, the IISS–US held a discussion event featuring Director of the Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Programme at the IISS Mark Fitzpatrick; Professor at Georgetown University and Foreign Affairs Officer at the State Department, Dr Edward Ifft; and Managing Editor of Survival and IISS Research Fellow, Dr Matthew Harries. The meeting took place on 26 March at the IISS–US office in Washington.

Dr Ifft explained that his predictions for the conference were rather pessimistic due to the unsuccessful track record of recent NPT Review Conferences, rising political tensions worldwide and fundamental dis-agreements between nuclear and non-nuclear states. In particular, the refusal of nuclear powers to eradicate their missile stockpiles is increas-ingly irksome to non-nuclear states in light of a focus on non-proliferation, rather than disarmament. In contrast, Fitzpatrick was more optimistic, particularly in light of an expected deal between the P5+1 and Iran over Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. In his opinion, a nuclear deal with Iran would possibly revamp NPT negotiations on a global scale and possibly over-shadow the pallor over the failure to hold a conference in Helsinki to promote a Middle East WMD-Free Zone.

Fitzpatrick also outlined a set of five meaningful objectives should the conference fail to produce a substantial outcome document as a means of demonstrating progress towards the ultimate aims of the NPT despite a lack of universal agreement on a wider platform.

Finally, Dr Harries mentioned the difficulty in managing expectations ahead of each subsequent Review Conference, based both on the histori-cal trajectory of the events and political developments. He then outlined potential fissures in and amongst both the nuclear and non-nuclear states based on recent events, as well as responses to the Austrian Pledge ema-nating from the December humanitarian campaign conference in Vienna. As such, Dr Harries warned against lofty promises in an outcome docu-ment that go unimplemented or other outcomes that could undermine the purpose of the review conference process and the NPT as a whole. The panellists concluded by taking several questions from the audience.

An armed soldier in Brussels, January 2015 (Thierry Roge/AFP/Getty)

2010 Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)

TERRORISM AND SECURITY NON-PROLIFERATION

IISS NEWS APRIL 2015 | 23

New Adelphi BooksAdelphi 450Power Shifts and New Blocs in the Global Trading SystemEdited by Sanjaya Baru and Suvi DograAs economic powers from the developing world, particularly China, have emerged in the past few decades, their weight has altered the balance in the global trading system. This has presented challenges in the World Trade Organisation (WTO), where the Doha Round of multilateral negotiations has dragged on for more than a dozen years. Frustrated by this stalemate, many countries have sought alternatives. Among these are ‘mega-regional’ trade agreements such as the proposed Transatlantic Trade and Investment

Partnership (TTIP) between the US and EU, and a 16-member Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).

In this volume, leading commentators – including two former heads of the WTO – examine the possible consequences of this shifting trade land-scape. Is globalisation in reverse, and have countries been retreating from liberalisation since the world financial crisis of 2008–09? Are the ‘mega-regional’ deals an existential threat to the WTO regime, or can they be used as building blocks towards wider multilateral agreement on a broad range of issues, from industrial standards to intellectual property rights? And what does it all mean for the balance of geopolitical power between the developed and developing world?

Adelphi 449Spoiler Groups and UN PeacekeepingPeter Nadin, Major General (retd) Patrick Cammaert, and Professor Vesselin PopovskiUN peacekeepers today do far more than patrol a ceasefire line. In most cases, there is no frontline, no truce, numerous parties and among them some armed groups seeking to undermine a settlement. In short, the UN is attempting to conduct peacekeeping in places where there is no peace to keep. Unfortunately the UN has failed to adequately develop the instru-ments to identify armed groups, and then deal with the challenge they pose. This book is a policy guide for UN missions. It analyses the nature of non-permissive UN mission environments and argues that the UN should think afresh about its approach to missions in these settings. By embracing and developing three concepts – robust peacekeeping, political processes, and the protection of civilians – the UN can arrive at a stabilisation doc-trine.

Survival: Global Politics and Strategy

In the April–May 2015 issue of Survival, Bruce Gilley and David Kinsella explore the potential for states to coerce others into action on climate change; Charles D. Freilich explains Israel’s inability to win conclusive military victories; David A. Shlapak calls for a more modest US military strategy; Steven Pifer, Egon Bahr, Götz Neuneck, Lukasz Kulesa, Mikhail Troitskiy, Matthew Kroenig, Samuel Charap, Jeremy Shapiro and Maria Rost Rublee discuss the strategic dimensions of the Ukraine crisis; and Donald Holbrook and Vicken Cheterian delve into the relationship between al-Qaeda and ISIS.

PUBLICATIONS

AppointmentsThe IISS welcomes the following;

Bastian Giegerich

Director of Defence and Military Analysis

Alice Hine

Assistant Editor

Krupa Patel

HR Administrator

Nancy Turner

Editorial Manager

IISS–Middle East

Sir John Jenkins

Executive Director, IISS–Middle EastThe International Institute for Strategic Studies is delighted to announce the appointment of Sir John Jenkins as Executive Director of the IISS–Middle East, based in Manama, Bahrain, as of 27 January 2015. Read the Press Release.

Katadah Zaman

Managing Director, IISS–Middle East

Mahmood Abdulla

Research Assistant, Geo-economics and Strategy programme

Imran Khan

Consultant, Geo-Economics and Strategy Programme

Yusuf Mubarak

Arabic Editor; Media & Communications Officer, IISS–Middle East

24 | APRIL 2015 IISS NEWS

Sir Robert Wade-Gery KCMG KCVO (1929–2015)It was with great sadness that the Institute learned of the death on 16 February 2015 of Sir Robert Wade-Gery, a scholar, diplomat and banker who served his country in all three roles with great distinction. As important for the IISS, however, was the vital part he played in the devel-opment of the Institute, first as a member for more than 50 years, having been introduced to it by his colleague Sir Michael Palliser when they served together in the Foreign Office’s then-nascent planning department, and later as honorary treasurer from 1991–2005. It was in this latter role that I came to know and value him as both a wise col-league and friend.

It was typical of Robert that when, as treasurer, he was required to produce his CV for the Institute’s website, he restricted it to only 14 lines, encompassing a life and career of outstanding achievement and success. This diffidence and modest brevity provided a telling illustration of the character and personality of the man who had lived that life. A congratulatory double first in Mods and Greats from Oxford was followed by a fellowship of All Souls (where, with a few interruptions, he was to remain a fellow for a total of 29 years) and a brilliant Foreign Office career.

As a diplomat he was not only a close witness to some of the major events and personalities of the second half of the twentieth century, from occupied Berlin to Suez, the Tet offensive in Vietnam, the fall of Franco and the assas-sination of Indira Gandhi, but also played a key role in advising and shaping British policy on issues as diverse as Trident, the Falklands War and the birth-pangs of the initial Anglo-Irish agreement, serving under eight prime ministers, from Churchill to Thatcher. Retiring from the Foreign Office after five years as high commissioner to India, he then moved seamlessly into banking as vice-chairman of Barclays Capital.

His knowledge of the financial world (he once served an interesting six months in the Bank of England learning about the City) and his skilled diplomacy were to prove invaluable to the Institute, steering it as it grew – and out-grew its accommodation – through occasionally choppy waters to the comparatively secure haven, both in its bal-ance sheet, and in Arundel House, which it occupies today.

At a time in the late 1990s when many UK charitable institutions saw their endowments evaporate on a plung-ing stock market, Robert’s advice secured our future and

financial stability. But his importance to the Institute extended far beyond his role as honorary treasurer. In 2002 when I became chairman of the executive commit-tee, changes in UK charity law brought about a necessary re-structuring of the Institute, a complex process whose smooth passage owed much to his diplomatic skill. It also imposed new fiduciary responsibilities on the execu-tive committee (now the board of trustees.) The fact that, despite these demands and responsibilities, I was able to sleep well at night was due in no small measure to his wise counsel. That this counsel was always offered with charm and a disarming diffidence in no way deceived us into misjudging its importance.

When he eventually retired – to indulge in happy schol-arship at All Souls, or his new passion for the art of dry stone walling and his old passion for opera – he main-tained his membership of an Institute whose contribution to international discourse he had held in high regard since his days as a very young diplomat. That regard was returned with interest by everyone at the IISS privileged to know and work with him.

During the 57 years of its existence the success and reputation of the IISS has owed a great deal to the con-tribution and dedication of a few great men. Sir Robert Wade-Gery was one of that number.

Fleur de Villiers CMG

Chairman of the IISS Trustees

OBITUARY

For details of how to contact the IISS >