Upload
others
View
17
Download
1
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
© 2017 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively “STR”) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.
Hotel Industry Overview
Lodging Conference
Ali HoytSenior Director, Consulting and Analytics
© 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Agenda
Total U.S. Review
Class Review
Segmentation
Pipeline
Forecast
© 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Total U.S. Review
© 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.
September 2017
RevPAR +2.4%
ADR +1.0%
Highest September Room Demand: 108 Million
Transient ADR %: -1.0% (first decline since the recovery)
Top 25 ADR %: -0.4% (first decline since the recovery)
© 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Demand Growth Continues to Hold
Sep YTD 2017, Total US Results
Actual % Change
Room Supply 1.8% p
Room Demand 2.5% p
Occupancy 67.4% 0.6% p
ADR $127 2.0% p
RevPAR $86 2.6% p
© 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.
US September YTD RevPAR: 2 Markets Dragged Down US Results
Total US YTD: +2.6%NYC: - 0.7%San Francisco: - 3.5%Miami: - 3.9%
Total US excluding NYC, SF & Miami : +3.1%
RevPAR % Change, YTD September 2017
© 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.
US September RevPAR: 2 States Helped Mask Very Mediocre Results
Total US: +2.4%Florida: +10.0%Texas: +18.3%
Total US excluding Florida and Texas: +0.7%
RevPAR % Change, September 2017
© 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Quarterly RevPAR % Change: Slow is The New Normal
6.7
8.0
9.1 8.8
7.8
6.4 5.8
4.8
2.6 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.5
2.7 1.9
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2014 2015 2016 2017
Total US, RevPAR % Change, by Quarter, Q1 2014 – Q3 2017
© 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Demand Growth Strong, Well Above 2%
-0.8
-4.7
-7.1
7.7
-8
-4
0
4
8
1990 2000 2010
Supply % Change Demand % Change
Total U.S., Supply & Demand % Change, 12 MMA 1/1990 – 9/2017
© 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Occupancy Growth Continues To Hold
-3.4
-6.7
-9.7
0.6
6.8 7.5
2.1
-10
-5
0
5
1990 2000 2010
Occ % Change ADR % Change
Total U.S., ADR & OCC % Change, 12 MMA 1/1990 – 9/2017
© 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Declining Occupancies and Rising ADRs Are Not Unprecedented
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
OCC % Change ADR % Change
24 Months
42 Months
Total U.S., ADR & OCC % Change, 12 MMA 1/1990 – 12/1999
© 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.
RevPAR Growth: 7 Years And Counting
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1990 2000 2010Total U.S., RevPAR % Change, 1/1990 – 9/2017
56 Months 91 Months111 Months
© 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Class Review
© 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Class: Demand Growth Outpaces Supply Growth Across Most Classes
2.4
1.7
4.1 4.0
0.3
-0.4
2.21.6
4.4 4.4
1.5
0.5
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy
Supply % Change Demand % Change
Supply / Demand % Change, by Class, September 2017 YTD
© 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.
ADR Growth Drives RevPAR Growth
-0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.31.2 0.9
1.6 1.61.5 1.6
2.3 3.0
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy
Occ % Change ADR % Change
RevPAR % Change by Contribution of OCC / ADR % Change, by Class, September 2017 YTD
© 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Upper End Hotels Still Selling 7 Out Of 10 Rooms
72.274.1 73.8
69.2
62.260.3
72.474.2 73.6
68.9
61.459.8
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy
2017 2016
OCC %, by Class, September 2017 & 2016 YTD
© 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.
September YTD 2017: New Supply Hits NYC, Miami
Market OCC % ADR % Change Influenced By
Nashville, TN 75.4 5.8
Detroit, MI 68.0 4.6
Orlando, FL 79.5 4.5
Seattle, WA 79.8 4.5
Washington, DC-MD-VA 74.0 4.4 Inauguration / Women’s March
Minneapolis/St Paul, MN-WI 68.9 -1.5
New York, NY 86.0 -1.9 New Supply
San Francisco/San Mateo, CA 84.5 -2.2Superbowl L 2016 / Moscone Center
Closed April – September
Miami/Hialeah, FL 76.6 -3.0 New Supply
Philadelphia, PA-NJ 69.0 -3.4 DNC 2016
September 2017 YTD ADR % Change in Top 25: 5 Best / 5 Worst Performing ADR % Markets
© 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Segmentation
© 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Transient Performance: Steady Demand IncreasesLift U.S. Numbers
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17
Demand % Change ADR % Change
Transient Demand and ADR % Change, 12 MMA, 1/2014 – 9/2017
© 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Group Performance: ADR Growth Still Healthy
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17
Demand % Change ADR % Change
Group Demand and ADR % Change, 12 MMA, 1/2014 – 9/2017
Easter Shift
Jewish Holiday Shift
© 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Demand Growth is Transient Driven
0
50
100
150
200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 R12 2017
Mill
ion
s
Transient Demand
Group Demand
Total Number of Rooms Sold, Group and Transient, by year 2011 – R12 2017
Demand % Change ‘11 – R12 ’17:Transient: +18%
Group: +6%
© 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Pipeline
© 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Hurricanes Impact Pipeline Numbers, U/C Growth only +6%
Phase 2017 2016 % Change
In Construction 188 178 6%
Final Planning 222 197 13%
Planning 175 174 0.5%
Under Contract 585 549 7%
Total US Pipeline, by Phase, ‘000s Rooms, September 2017 and 2016
© 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Total US Pipeline; Rooms In Construction, in ‘000s; 1/2006 – 9/2017
0
50
100
150
200
250
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Low: May ‘1150K
Sep ‘17188.5K
High:Dec ‘07
211K
22.5K
U/C Pipeline Is Growing But Still Below Prior Peak
Tho
usa
nd
s
© 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Limited Service Construction Is The Name Of The Game
8.6
24.2
59.463.7
9.8
2.6
20.2
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Unaffiliated
US Pipeline, Rooms In Construction , ‘000s Rooms, by Scale, September 2017
83%
© 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Large Metros Grow Rapidly
Market Rooms In Construction % Of ExistingNashville, TN 5,497 13.5%New York, NY 13,533 11.5%Seattle, WA 4,228 9.4%Denver, CO 4,091 8.8%Dallas, TX 7,047 8.4%
US Pipeline, Rooms U/C and as % of Existing Supply, Largest % In Top 26 Markets, September 2017
© 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Top 26 Markets Have 47% of U/C Rooms
88.799.7
84.7
137.2
75.0
99.9
Top 26 Markets Rest of the US
In Construction Final Planning Planning
US Pipeline, Rooms (‘000s), Top 26 Markets vs. All Other Markets, September 2017
© 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.
2017 / 2018 Forecast
© 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.
U.S. Industry Forecast
Outlook
2017Forecast
2018Forecast
Supply 2.0% 2.1%
Demand 2.0% 1.9%
Occupancy 0.0% -0.2%
ADR 2.3% 2.5%
RevPAR 2.3% 2.3%
Questions?
© 2017 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively “STR”) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.
© 2017 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively “STR”) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.
Thank You!
Ali Hoyt
Senior Director, Consulting & Analytics
@ahoyt_STR
www.linkedin.com/in/alisonhoyt