HLDI

Casualty Actuarial Society1999 Seminar on Ratemaking

Kim L. Hazelbaker Senior Vice President

Nashville, TN March 11-12, 1999

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Light Truck Sales By Model YearPercent of New Vehicle Sales

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1908 1918 1928 1938 1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998

47.5%

HLDI

Percent of Passenger Vehicle Registrations By Vehicle Type, Weight, and Model Year

Vehicle type Weight(lb) 1975 1985 1995 1996 1997

Cars <2,500 12 28 15 13 12 2,500- 27 37 39 40 37 3,500+ 41 8 9 7 8

Passenger vans 0 2 8 8 6 Total 81 76 71 69 64

Pickups <3,500 1 12 4 5 5 3,500- 9 2 5 3 3 4,000+ 3 2 6 8 11 Total 13 16 16 16 19

Utility <3,500 1 4 2 2 3vehicles 3,500- 1 0 5 5 5

4,000+ 1 1 5 6 8 Total 2 5 11 13 15

HLDI

1998 Model Ford Passenger Vehicles

Escort 2,585 lbsExplorer 4,325 lbsExpedition 5,290 lbs

curb weight

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Metro 2,065 lbsBlazer 4,225 lbsSuburban 5,640 lbs

curb weight

1998 Model GM Passenger Vehicles

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1997 Ford Escort 1997 Ford Expedition

HLDI1997 Ford Escort

1997 Ford Expedition

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1997 Ford Escort 1997 Ford Expedition

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Ford Excursion - 2000 Model Year

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Ford Super Concept Truck

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0

100

200

300

400

<2500 2500- 3000- 3500- 4000- 4500- 5000+

cars/passenger vans

utility vehicles

pickups

vehicle weight (lb)

Occupant Death Rates 1990-95 Passenger VehiclesDeaths per Million Vehicles per Year

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Occupant Death Rates in Single-Vehicle Crashes 1990-95 Passenger VehiclesDeaths per Million Vehicles per Year

20

80

140

200

<2500 2500- 3000- 3500- 4000- 4500- 5000+

cars/passenger vans

utility vehicles

pickups

vehicle weight (lb)

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Occupant Death Rates in Two-Vehicle Crashes 1990-95 Passenger VehiclesDeaths per Million Vehicles per Year

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

<2500 2500- 3000- 3500- 4000- 4500- 5000+

cars/passenger vans

utility vehicles

pickups

vehicle weight (lb)

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Occupant Death Rates in Other Vehicles inTwo-Vehicle Crashes, 1990-95 Passenger Vehicles Deaths per Million Vehicles per Year

0

40

80

120

160

200

<2500 2500- 3000- 3500- 4000- 4500- 5000+

cars/passenger vans

utility vehicles

pickups

vehicle weight (lb)

HLDI

Mix of Other Vehicles in Two-Vehicle Fatal Crashes 1990-95 Passenger Vehicles

<2500 2500- 3000- 3500+

deaths in carsOTHER

MEDIUM/HEAVYTRUCK

UTILITIES

CARS3500-

CARS2500-

CARS <2500

PICKUPS

<3000 3000- 3500- 4000+

vehicle weight (lb)

deaths in pickupsOTHER

MEDIUM/HEAVYTRUCK

UTILITIES

CARS3500-

CARS2500-

CARS <2500

PICKUPS

<3000 3000- 3500- 4000+

deaths in utility vehicles

OTHER

MEDIUM/HEAVYTRUCK

UTILITIES

CARS3500-

CARS2500-

CARS <2500

PICKUPS

100

80

60

40

20

100

80

60

40

20

100

80

60

40

20

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Characteristics That Influence Compatibility/Aggressivity in Crashes Between Two Passenger Vehicles

Weight Differences decrease risk in the heavier vehicles and increase risk in the lighter vehicles

Structural Mismatches contribute to override/underride

Stiffness Differences can decrease the risk if the heavier vehicles are less stiff than the lighter vehicles

High Performance is associated with increased crash severity

HLDI Crash compatibility

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Companies that Supply Data to HLDI

Aetna/Travelers

Allstate

American Family

Auto Club of Michigan

Farmers

GEICO

The Hartford

Kemper

Liberty Mutual

Mass. CAR

Motors

Nationwide

Progressive

Prudential

SAFECO

State Farm

USAA

HLDI

VINDICATORInformation Decoded from Vehicle Identification Numbers

VIN Positions 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12-17

World ManufacturerIdentification

Vehicle Attributes:

Car LineSeries

Body TypeEngine

Restraints

Check Digit

Model Year

Plant Code

SequentialNumber

also: antilock brakes, antitheft devices, daytime running lights

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Size of HLDI DatabaseNumber of Vehicles in Files, December 1997

Model Year Number of Vehicles

1990 12,906,0891991 12,649,0431992 12,104,9871993 12,856,6151994 12,517,6611995 12,129,4751996 8,898,2631997 7,759,4901998 1,319,290

Total 93,139,913

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Collision Losses vs. Property Damage Losses1995-97 Models

Average LossPayment Per Insured

Vehicle YearAverage Loss

Payment Per Claim

collision propertydamage

Claim Frequency(claims per 100

insured vehicle years)

collision propertydamage

9.0

6.0

3.0

collision propertydamage

$270

$180

$90

$3,000

$2,000

$1,000

passenger cars, and passenger vans

pickups, utility vehicle,and large vans

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Collision and Property Damage Liability LossesBy Vehicle Type and Size Class, 1995-97 ModelsAverage Loss Payment per Insured Vehicle Year

$ relative $ relative

Cars small $268 120 $79 98 midsize $250 112 $73 90 large $206 92 $62 77

Passenger Vans $165 74 $64 79

Pickups small $200 89 $101 125standard $168 75 $95 117

Utility small $211 94 $94 116Vehicles midsize $212 95 $98 121

large $135 60 $107 132

All passenger vehicles $224 100 $81 100

CollisionProperty

Damage Liability

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$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120

Collision vs. Property Damage LiabilityAverage Loss Payment Per Insured Vehicle Year, 1995-97 Models

property damage liability

High CollisionLow Property Damage

Low CollisionLow Property Damage

Low CollisionHigh Property Damage

High CollisionHigh Property Damage

collision

smallsports

mdsizesports

mdsizeluxury

minisports

large luxury

very lg luxury

mdsize2-dr

mdsize4-dr

very lg sw

2-dr and 4-dr cars, station wagons, & passenger vans

sports and luxury cars

pickups, utility vehiclesand large vans

all vehicle average

very lg 4-dr

large4-dr

passvans

small4-dr

mini4-dr

mini 2-dr

small2-dr

smallutility

stdpickup

midsizeutility

largevan

largeutility

smallpickup

mdsizesw

large2-dr

HLDIThe Washington Post — January 24, 1999

HLDINew Yorker — March 9, 1998

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Miami Herald — February 14, 1998

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Nissan SUT - 2000 Model Year

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Ford Explorer SportTrac - 2001 Model Year

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Lincoln Blackwood - 2001 Model Year

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