Global telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2019 2024

Global telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2019–2024

Global telecoms market:

trends and forecasts 2019–

2024

Ibraheem Kasujee

February 2020, based on data up to 1Q 2019


This report provides:

▪ a 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs

for the worldwide telecoms market, as a whole and for

eight regions modelled

▪ an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast

assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and

for key countries

▪ an overview of operator strategies and country-specific

topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by

means of a cross-country comparison

▪ a summary of results, key implications and

recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

Our forecasts are informed by on-the-ground regional market

experts from our topic-led research programmes and our

consulting division, as well as external interviews. In addition to

our robust set of historical data, our forecasts draw on a unique

and in-house modelling tool, which applies a rigorous

methodology (reconciliation of different sources, standard

definitions, top-down and bottom-up modelling).

2

About this report

1 Includes USB modem, and mid- and large-screen, but not handset-based data.2 IoT connections and revenue figures include mobile services only.3 Service revenue is the sum of retail and wholesale revenue.

REPORT COVERAGE

Geographical Key performance indicators

Regions modelled

▪ Western Europe

(WE)

▪ Central Eastern

Europe (CEE)

▪ Emerging Asia–

Pacific (EMAP)

▪ Developed Asia–

Pacific (DVAP)

▪ Middle East and

North Africa (MENA)

▪ Sub-Saharan Africa

(SSA)

▪ Latin America

(LATAM)

▪ North America (NA)

Connections Revenue

Mobile

▪ Handset, mobile

broadband,1 IoT2

▪ Prepaid, contract

▪ 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G

▪ Smartphone,

non-smartphone

Fixed

▪ Voice, broadband,

IPTV, dial-up

▪ Narrowband voice,

VoBB

▪ DSL, FTTP/B, cable,

BFWA, 5G, other

Mobile

▪ Service,3 retail


▪ Handset, mobile

broadband,1 IoT2

▪ Handset voice,

messaging, data

Fixed

▪ Service,3 retail

▪ Voice, broadband,

IPTV, dial-up,

specialist business

services

▪ DSL, FTTP/B, cable,

BFWA, other

ARPU

Voice traffic Mobile

▪ SIMs, handset


▪ Handset voice, data

Fixed and mobile

▪ Outgoing minutes,

MoUOur forecasts are refined throughout the year. This report presents the results

at the time of publication and will continue to give useful background

information about key drivers. However, we recommend that you always use

the Analysys Mason DataHub to view the latest data associated with this report.

http://www.analysysmason.com/datahub


9. Executive summary

10. Growth in the global telecoms service revenue will be driven by growth in

both the number of fixed broadband connections and mobile handset data

revenue

11. Retail revenue growth will be limited or negative in developed regions, but

emerging markets’ retail revenue will continue to grow at a healthy rate

12. Geographical coverage: the 4G/5G share of mobile connections in North

America and developed Asia–Pacific will reach 100% by 2024

13. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets

14. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison

15. Market context: the telecoms share of GDP ranges from 1.4% in CEE to

2.0% in SSA

16. Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries

17. Key drivers at a glance for each region

18. Market overview: growth in fixed broadband and mobile handset revenue

will drive the total telecoms service revenue growth

19. Mobile: the 5G share of mobile connections will reach 22% worldwide by

2024

20. Mobile: market competition will prevent mobile ARPU from rising during the

forecast period, despite the boost due to new 5G connections

21. Mobile: operators will have to find new sources of revenue growth due to

saturated markets in developed regions and high levels of mobile

competition

22. Fixed: the FTTP/B share of fixed broadband connections will increase from

56% in 2019 to 64% in 2024

23. Fixed: North America will be the only region with significant fixed

broadband ASPU growth due to its limited market competition

24. Fixed: fixed broadband penetration will continue to grow in developing

regions; operators in developed markets will focus on the consumer

experience

25. Specialist business services: revenue from all segments of business

services will grow during the forecast period; IT service providers will

dominate the market

26. IoT: the total number of IoT connections worldwide will grow sevenfold

between 2018 and 2028 to reach 5.3 billion

27. Pay TV: growth in pay-TV revenue will primarily be driven by OTT video

services as revenue from traditional pay-TV will begin to decline

28. Individual country forecasts

29. Western Europe: the total revenue will remain flat due to declining revenue

from legacy services and intense competition in the mobile market

30. Western Europe: blended mobile ARPU will increase marginally, thanks to

growing data usage and customers’ migration to contract plans

31. Western Europe: the total telecoms service revenue will grow only slightly

because only the fixed broadband market offers potential for significant

revenue growth

32. Western Europe: forecast changes

33. Central and Eastern Europe: telecoms service revenue growth will be

driven by the demand for data and the monetisation of network

investments

34. Central and Eastern Europe: mobile ARPU will increase, stimulated by LTE

expansions and the associated increase in mobile data usage

35. Central and Eastern Europe: total revenue growth will be driven by a rise in

the number of mobile contract subscriptions and increasing fixed

broadband coverage

36. Central and Eastern Europe: forecast changes

3

Contents [1]


37. Emerging Asia–Pacific: both mobile and fixed service revenue will continue

to grow as penetration increases

38. Emerging Asia–Pacific: monthly data consumption per connection will more

than triple during 2019–2024

39. Emerging Asia–Pacific: rising levels of competition and regulatory pressure

will limit the growth in mobile ARPU and fixed broadband ASPU

40. Emerging Asia–Pacific: forecast changes

41. Developed Asia–Pacific: fixed broadband, IoT and business services

revenue will grow, but not by enough to offset declines in legacy services

42. Developed Asia–Pacific: the take-up of 5G services in DVAP will be rapid

thanks to favourable demand-side conditions

43. Developed Asia–Pacific: operators will focus on rolling out NGA networks

and 5G services

44. Developed Asia–Pacific: forecast changes

45. Middle East and North Africa: the fast adoption of fixed broadband and

mobile data services will help to maintain service revenue growth

46. Middle East and North Africa: mobile services will account for most of the

telecoms revenue in the region, driven by the fast migration from 3G to 4G

47. Middle East and North Africa: monetising high-speed internet and mobile

data access will be crucial to achieve telecoms retail revenue growth

48. Middle East and North Africa: forecast changes

49. Sub-Saharan Africa: mobile revenue will be the dominant contributor to the

total telecoms revenue growth, but fixed broadband revenue will also grow

strongly

50. Sub-Saharan Africa: the prepaid share of mobile connections will remain

above 95%; this will play a role in keeping the ARPU low

51. Sub-Saharan Africa: SSA is a highly mobile-centric region with a strong

potential for fixed broadband revenue growth

52. Sub-Saharan Africa: forecast changes

53. Latin America: mobile handset, fixed broadband and pay-TV revenue will be

the main drivers of telecoms retail revenue growth in Latin America

54. Latin America: 4G and 5G will account for a majority of the mobile

connections in Latin America by 2024

55. Latin America: fixed broadband revenue will account for the majority of the

total telecoms retail revenue, driven by expansions in network coverage

56. Latin America: forecast changes

57. North America: a lack of competition will allow both mobile and fixed

service revenue to continue to grow

58. North America: the number of 5G connections will grow rapidly, thanks to

an early market launch in the USA

59. North America: fixed broadband will be the main driver of the total

telecoms revenue growth, thanks to growth in both ARPU and household

penetration

60. North America: forecast changes

61. Methodology

62. Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge

63. Examples of forecast input drivers

64. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]

65. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]

66. About the author and Analysys Mason

67. About the author

68. Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned

69. Research from Analysys Mason

70. Consulting from Analysys Mason

4

Contents [2]


Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type, and total service

revenue, worldwide, 2014–2024

Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country,

worldwide, 2018–2024

Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed

broadband connections by region, worldwide, 2018 and 2024

Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for worldwide

forecasts

Figure 5: Metrics for the eight regions modelled individually, 2018

Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes worldwide

Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2018) and future trajectory

(2019–2024), by region, worldwide

Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, worldwide (USD

billion), 2014–2024

Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, worldwide (million), 2014–2024

Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, worldwide,

2014–2024

Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, worldwide (million), 2014–2024

Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, worldwide (million), 2014–2024

Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, worldwide (USD per month), 2014–2024

Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), worldwide,

2014–2024

Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, worldwide (GB per month),

2014–2024

Figure 16: Mobile penetration by country, worldwide, 2014–2024

Figure 17: Mobile ARPU by country, worldwide, 2014–2024

Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, worldwide (million), 2014–

2024

Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, worldwide (USD billion), 2014–2024

Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of

broadband connections, worldwide, 2014–2024

Figure 21: Fixed internet traffic per broadband connection, worldwide (GB per

month), 2014–2024

Figure 22: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, worldwide,

2014–2024

Figure 23: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, worldwide, 2014–2024

Figure 24: Total market revenue from specialist business services, worldwide,

2014–2024

Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, worldwide, 2014–2024

Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay TV, worldwide, 2014–2024

Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Western Europe

(USD billion), 2014–2024

Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Western Europe (million), 2014–2024

Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Western

Europe, 2014–2024

Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Western Europe (million), 2014–2024

Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Western Europe,

2014–2024

Figure 32: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Western

Europe (USD per month), 2014–2024

Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, Western Europe (GB per month),

2014–2024

5

List of figures [1]


Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, Western Europe (million),

2014–2024

Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts,

Western Europe, 2014–2024

Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Central and

Eastern Europe (USD billion), 2014–2024

Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Central and Eastern Europe (million),

2014–2024

Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Central and

Eastern Europe, 2014–2024

Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Central and Eastern Europe (million),

2014–2024

Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Central and

Eastern Europe, 2014–2024

Figure 41: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Central

and Eastern Europe (USD per month), 2014–2024

Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Central and Eastern Europe (GB

per month), 2014–2024

Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Central and Eastern Europe

(million), 2014–2024


Central and Eastern Europe, 2014–2024

Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, emerging Asia–

Pacific (USD billion), 2014–2024

Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, emerging Asia–Pacific (billion), 2014–

2024

Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, emerging

Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024

Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, emerging Asia–Pacific (million), 2014–

2024

Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, emerging Asia–

Pacific, 2014–2024

Figure 50: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, emerging

Asia–Pacific (USD per month), 2014–2024

Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, emerging Asia–Pacific (GB per

month), 2014–2024

Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, emerging Asia–Pacific

(million), 2014–2024


emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024

Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, developed Asia–

Pacific (USD billion), 2014–2024

Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, developed Asia–Pacific (million), 2014–

2024

Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, developed

Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024

Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, developed Asia–Pacific (million), 2014–

2024

Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, developed Asia–

Pacific, 2014–2024

Figure 59: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU,

developed Asia–Pacific (USD per month), 2014–2024

Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, developed Asia–Pacific (GB per

month), 2014–2024

Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, developed Asia–Pacific

(million), 2014–2024

6

List of figures [2]



developed Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024

Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Middle East and

North Africa (USD billion), 2014–2024

Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, Middle East and North Africa (million),

2014–2024

Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Middle East

and North Africa, 2014–2024

Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, Middle East and North Africa (million),

2014–2024

Figure 67: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Middle East and

North Africa, 2014–2024

Figure 68: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Middle

East and North Africa (USD per month), 2014–2024

Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, Middle East and North Africa (GB

per month), 2014–2024

Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, Middle East and North Africa

(million), 2014–2024


Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2024

Figure 72: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Sub-Saharan Africa


Figure 73: Mobile connections by type, Sub-Saharan Africa (billion), 2014–

2024

Figure 74: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Sub-

Saharan Africa, 2014–2024

Figure 75: Fixed connections by type, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 2014–2024

Figure 76: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Sub-Saharan

Africa, 2014–2024

Figure 77: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Sub-

Saharan Africa (USD per month), 2014–2024

Figure 78: Mobile data traffic per connection, Sub-Saharan Africa (GB per

month), 2014–2024

Figure 79: Broadband connections by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa (million),

2014–2024


Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2024

Figure 81: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Latin America (USD

billion), 2014–2024

Figure 82: Mobile connections by type, Latin America (million), 2014–2024

Figure 83: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Latin

America, 2014–2024

Figure 84: Fixed connections by type, Latin America (million), 2014–2024

Figure 85: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Latin America,

2014–2024

Figure 86: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Latin

America (USD per month), 2014–2024

Figure 87: Mobile data traffic per connection, Latin America (GB per month),

2014–2024

Figure 88: Broadband connections by technology, Latin America (million),

2014–2024


Latin America, 2014–2024

7

List of figures [3]


Figure 90: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, North America


Figure 91: Mobile connections by type, North America (million), 2014–2024

Figure 92: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, North

America, 2014–2024

Figure 93: Fixed connections by type, North America (million), 2014–2024

Figure 94: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, North America,

2014–2024

Figure 95: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, North

America (USD per month), 2014–2024

Figure 96: Mobile data traffic per connection, North America (GB per month),

2014–2024

Figure 97: Broadband connections by technology, North America (million),

2014–2024


North America, 2014–2024

Figure 99a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key

drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores

Figure 99b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key

drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores

8

List of figures [4]


Mobile handset revenue will account for 49% of the total retail

revenue worldwide in 2024 due to the mobile-centric nature of

developing regions.

The total mobile service revenue worldwide will grow at a CAGR of

0.9% between 2018 and 2024. This growth will be driven by a rise

in the number of mobile handsets in developing markets such as

Latin America (LATAM), emerging Asia–Pacific (EMAP) and Sub-

Saharan Africa (SSA). The latter two regions, as well as a

significant part of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), are

particularly mobile-centric, and the fixed markets in these regions

are still highly underdeveloped. As such, the mobile retail market

is a key driver of telecoms service revenue growth in these areas.

Fixed revenue will increase due to a growing demand for high-

speed connections.

Fixed voice retail revenue worldwide will fall from USD125 billion

in 2019 to USD97 billion in 2024, but the total fixed retail revenue

will increase due to growth in fixed broadband revenue. The fixed

broadband market will benefit from an increase in the number of

next-generation access (NGA) networks in all regions. SSA will

have the lowest NGA share of all regions (58% in 2024) because

low incomes and a high rural population makes investment in

infrastructure difficult. The NGA share in North America (NA),

developed Asia–Pacific (DVAP) and Western Europe (WE) will be

more than 96% by 2024, aided by government incentives and

operator investments motivated by cost savings.

Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type, and total

service revenue, worldwide, 2014–2024

Growth in the global telecoms service revenue will be driven by growth in both the

number of fixed broadband connections and mobile handset data revenue

0

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Re

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Mobile handset Mobile broadband

Mobile IoT Fixed voice

Fixed broadband Specialist business services

Pay TV Service revenueSource: Analysys Mason


Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by region, worldwide, 2018 and 20241

12

Geographical coverage: the 4G/5G share of mobile connections in North America

and developed Asia–Pacific will reach 100% by 2024

1 For a full list of countries modelled as part of each region, please see the accompanying data annex. Mobile connections exclude

IoT connections. NGA share of fixed broadband connections is calculated as cable, VDSL and FTTP/B connections (that provide

access speeds of 30Mbit/s or more) divided by the total number of fixed broadband connections.

E M E R G IN G

A S I A – P A CIF IC

D E V E LO P E D

AS I A – PACIF IC

N O R T H

A M E R I CA

L A T I N

A M E R I CA

C E N T R AL A N D

E A S T E R N E U R O P E

W E S T E R N

E U R O P E

S U B - S A H ARA N

A F R I CA

MIDDLE EAST

AND NORTH AFRICA4G/5G share in 2018

KEY

4G/5G share in 2024

NGA share in 2024

NGA share in 2018


ContentsExecutive summary

Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison

Individual country forecasts

Methodology

About the author and Analysys Mason


About the author

67

Ibraheem Kasujee (Research Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team in London, contributing primarily to the Telecoms

Market Matrix and European Country Reports research programmes. Ibraheem holds a BSc in Economics from the University of Warwick, and

wrote his dissertation on the impact of technology on sleep.


Consulting

We deliver tangible benefits to clients across the telecoms

industry:

▪ communications and digital service providers, vendors,

financial and strategic investors, private equity and

infrastructure funds, governments, regulators, broadcasters

and service and content providers

Our sector specialists understand the distinct local challenges

facing clients, in addition to the wider effects of global forces.

We are future-focused and help clients understand the challenges

and opportunities new technology brings.

Research

Our dedicated team of analysts track and forecast the different

services accessed by consumers and enterprises.

We offer detailed insight into the software, infrastructure and

technology delivering those services.

Clients benefit from regular and timely intelligence, and direct

access to analysts.

Analysys Mason’s consulting services and research portfolio

68

Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned


Research from Analysys Mason

69


Consulting from Analysys Mason

70


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FEBRUARY 2020

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Global telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2019 2024