Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2018-2024 · 2018-10-26 · Projection System (COPS) and labour market forecasts prepared for particular industries by sector councils,

INVEST. BUILD. GROWMANITOBA

LABOUR MARKET OCCUPATIONAL FORECASTS2018-2024

SUMMARY FINDINGS

The findings in this report are based on labour market supply and demand projections for Manitoba occupations at the one-digit 2016 National Occupational Classification (NOC) level.

manitoba.ca/lmi

iManitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2018-2024

TABLE OF CONTENTSPREFACE .................................................................................................................................................. 1

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................... 2

RÉSUMÉ ................................................................................................................................................... 4

CHAPTER 1: MANITOBA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK SUMMARY FINDINGS, 2018 to 2024....... 6

1.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 6

1.2 Manitoba’s Labour Demand ...................................................................................................... 7

1.2.1 Sources of Labour Demand ........................................................................................... 7

1.2.2 Job Openings by Occupation ........................................................................................ 8

1.2.3 Job Openings by Skills, Education and Training ......................................................... 14

1.2.4 High-demand Occupations by Industry Sector ............................................................ 15

1.3 Manitoba’s Labour Supply ....................................................................................................... 18

1.3.1. Labour Force Outlook .................................................................................................. 18

1.3.2 Labour Force Participation ........................................................................................... 19

1.3.3 Sources of Labour Supply ............................................................................................ 20

1.4 Gaps: Labour Demand less Labour Supply ............................................................................. 22

CHAPTER 2: ECONOMIC AND LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOKS ....................................................... 25

2.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 25

2.2 International, National and Provincial Economies ................................................................... 25

2.2.1 International and National Outlook ............................................................................. 25

2.2.2 Provincial Review and Outlook .................................................................................... 26

2.2.3 Major Construction and Investment Projects in Manitoba ........................................... 27

2.2.4 SECINC’s Occupation Model: Underlying Economic Scenario for Manitoba’s 2018 Custom Projection ....................................................................... 28

2.3 National and Provincial Labour Markets: Current Status ......................................................... 29

2.3.1 National Labour Market ............................................................................................... 29

2.3.2 Manitoba’s Labour Market ........................................................................................... 30

2.4 Population................................................................................................................................ 31

CHAPTER 3: SECINC FORECASTING MODEL .................................................................................... 34

3.1 Model Summary of Methodology and Assumptions ............................................................... 34

ii Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2018-2024

APPENDICES ......................................................................................................................................... 35

Appendix 1: Components of Manitoba’s Future Labour Force, 2017 to 2024 .................................. 36

Appendix 2: Detailed Occupation Summary One-digit NOC Level, Supply and Demand, 2018 to 2024 ................................................................................ 38

Appendix 3: Job Openings at Three-digit NOC Level, Total 2018 to 2024 ....................................... 44

Appendix 4: Job Openings and Labour Market Tightness at the 4-digit NOC level, 2018-2024 ........................................................................................ 50

CHART LIST

Chart 1: Manitoba Labour Demand – 2018 to 2024 ............................................................................. 7

Chart 2: Total Job Openings by Source – 2018 to 2024 ....................................................................... 8

Chart 3: Occupation Groups (One-digit NOC) by Job Openings, Replacement and Expansion Demand – 2018 to 2024 ......................................................... 10

Chart 4: Manitoba Job Openings by Skill Level – 2018 to 2024 ........................................................ 14

Chart 5: Manitoba Labour Force, Estimated and Projected – 2017 to 2024 ..................................... 18

Chart 6: Manitoba Labour Force Participation Rate, Estimated and Projected – 2017 to 2024 ........ 19

Chart 7: Sources of Labour Force Change, Manitoba – 2018 to 2024 ............................................... 21

Chart 8: Chart 8: Manitoba Population, Estimated and Projected – 2017 to 2024 ........................... 32

Chart 9: Manitoba Age Distribution, Estimated and Projected – 2017 to 2024 ................................ 33

Chart 10: Manitoba Age Distribution Change – 2017 to 2024 ............................................................. 33

iiiManitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2018-2024

TABLE LIST

Table 1: Job openings by one-digit NOC and Source – 2018 to 2024 ............................................... 11

Table 2: Job openings by Two-digit NOC and Source – 2018 to 2024 ............................................... 12

Table 3: Job openings by NOC Skill Level Requirements, 2018 to 2024 ........................................... 15

Table 4: Top Occupations by job openings and sector, 2018-2024 .................................................... 16

Table 5: Labour Demand and Supply Gap Indicators, 2018 to 2024 .................................................. 22

Table 6: Occupations experiencing Labour Market Tightness in at least 3 years, 2018 to 2024 ....... 24

Table 7: Selected key Economic growth Indicators – 2018 to 2024 ................................................... 28

Table 8: Manitoba Labour Force Statistics (Working Age Population Age 15+) – 2013 to 2017 ....... 31

1Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2018-2024

PrefaceThe Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts Report is produced by Manitoba Growth, Enterprise and Trade. We acknowledge the assistance, feedback and support from other Manitoba government departments consulted, as well as the external stakeholders who played a role in validating results.

We would like specifically to acknowledge the assistance of the Alliance of Manitoba Sector Councils (AMSC), Manitoba Bureau of Statistics, Manitoba Hydro and the following provincial government departments: Manitoba Education and Training and Manitoba Finance.

The Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts Report 2018 to 2024 identifies expected trends for the labour market. The report helps to improve our understanding of the state of Manitoba’s labour market and the key issues involved in achieving future labour market goals. It has been developed as a tool to support workforce policy and programming. The information presented in this report provides a scenario on the future demand of occupations across industry sectors and describes the supply of workers required to meet this demand.

The labour market outlook estimates in this report are based on the work of Manitoba Growth, Enterprise and Trade with Stokes Economic Consulting (SECINC). SECINC senior economists have created an occupation model that simulates the effect of changes in market conditions and enables clients to produce an annual provincial forecast of labour market supply and demand by occupation. In 2017, SECINC used this occupation model to create a custom projection of Manitoba’s labour force, with results for the seven years between 2018 and 2024 provided in this report.

It provides a quantitative assessment of Manitoba’s occupation demand forecast and supply requirements, including new entrants, international immigrants, interprovincial migrants and inter-occupation migrants, over the next seven years.

While the results of Manitoba’s custom projection offer an internally-consistent and comprehensive picture of the occupational labour markets across Manitoba, it is cautioned that precise conclusions should not be drawn on small samples, occupations or industry groups. Occupations with fewer people will have less reliable information than those with more people. The projection results should be used to observe general trends and relative comparisons, rather than to cite precise numerical forecasts. For example, while some Manitoba occupations are forecasted to see a higher demand for workers than others, estimates of precise numeric demand for workers in a given year of the forecast scenario should be treated with caution.

Further, while the projection provides an average of the overall Manitoba jobs outlook, it is not able to reflect granular, local level labour market realities or regional, niche labour market scenarios. Occupational demand may differ across Manitoba regions and communities.

Within occupations, there may be unique conditions that are not captured in the analysis. Economic and demographic assumptions and conditions may change over time. Despite best efforts, actual conditions may differ from those presented in this report.

The Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts Report and the results of Manitoba’s custom projection are intended to complement existing work on occupation projection and forecasting, including the Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS) and labour market forecasts prepared for particular industries by sector councils, government departments and other groups. While the approaches and purposes of various projection models may differ, Manitoba officials will continue to engage these groups to understand the differences and build consistencies where feasible.

2 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2018-2024

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY• The Manitoba economy will see a total of

168,700 job openings between 2018 and 2024, with 66 per cent of these openings to replace worker retirements and deaths. The forecasts predict approximately 24,100 total job openings per year.

• Manitoba’s economy will see 168,400 new workers join the labour force between 2018 and 2024, or approximately 24,100 workers a year.

• Manitoba’s unemployment rate is expected to remain constant at 5.3 per cent both in 2018 and 2024.

• After adjusting for inflation, Manitoba’s economy is expected to grow by an average of 1.7 per cent annually from 2018 to 2024.

• Manitoba’s labour market is expected to lift hourly labour income by an average of 2.3 per cent annually over the next seven years. Over the same period, this is expected to push up personal incomes in Manitoba by an average of 3.6 per cent annually.

Total Labour Demand

• A total of 168,700 job openings will be createdbetween 2018 and 2024.

• Expansion demand (new jobs due toeconomic growth) is forecasted to create58,000 job openings (34 per cent of the total).Replacement demand (job openings fromretirements and deaths) is forecasted to create110,700 job openings (66 per cent of the total).

• The occupation group with the most expectedjob openings is sales and service at 33,300or 19.7 per cent of the total Manitoba jobopenings outlook.

• Job openings in business, finance andadministration occupations are estimated at26,400 or 15.7 per cent; and occupations ineducation, law and social, community andgovernment services at 23,600 or 14.0 percent.

• Within the sales and service occupationgroup, the highest number of job openingsis expected for the following sub-groups:cleaners, retail salespersons, and food counterattendants, kitchen helpers and relatedoccupations.

• For all occupation groups, replacementdemand is more prominent than expansiondemand over the forecast period. However, inoccupations in Health and Sales and Service,expansion demand almost equals replacementdemand.

• With regard to educational requirements, ofthe 168,700 forecasted job openings over theseven-year period, approximately 60 per centare forecasted to require some post-secondaryeducation and training (ex: college, university,trade certification). The remaining 40 per centmay not necessitate post-secondary training oreducation, but may have occupation-specific oron-the-job training requirements.


Total Labour Supply

• It is forecasted that there will be an additional168,400 workers over the forecast period tooffset the total labour demand.

• The additional supply is forecasted to consistof 92,600 new entrants, 38,600 net in-migrantsand 37,200 net other in-mobility workers.

• With 168,400 workers joining the labour forceand 110,700 people leaving due to retirementsand deaths, the total labour force in Manitobais projected to increase by 57,700 persons overthe forecast period.

Gaps in Demand versus Supply

• Overall, Manitoba’s labour market is expected to remain balanced over the projection period, with the overall supply for labour adequate to meet labour demand. However, labour shortages or surpluses may exist for individual occupations and in some regions of the province. In each year from 2018 to 2024, labour supply exceeds labour demand by an average of 6,400 workers.

• The unemployment rate is expected remain fairly consistent over the forecast period. Overall, the unemployment rate is forecasted to decline from 5.3 per cent in 2018 to 5.2 per cent over the next 5 years, before rising to 5.3 per cent again in 2024.

Why do the numbers change?

• As the economy changes, the macro-economicassumptions and data underlying this reportare updated regularly with the best dataavailable at the time. For example, economicchanges like the oil-price decrease of 2014/15and ongoing, weaker than expected domesticeconomic performance, have widespreadimplications for the labour market in Manitoba,Canada and around the world. In this latestiteration, the model has also been updated toreflect results of Census 2016.

• In addition, with every update of the report,it covers a new seven-year period. As a result,direct comparison of the labour supply anddemand forecasts year-over-year is not advised.

• Please see Chapter 3 and Appendix 1 for moreon the methodology and macro-economicassumptions behind this report.

4 Prévisions par profession pour le marché du travail du Manitoba de 2018 à 2024

RÉSUMÉ• L’économie manitobaine verra l’ouverture

d’un total de 168 700 emplois au cours dela période 2018-2024, dont 66 pour cent enraison de départs à la retraite et de décès.Selon les prévisions, le nombre total d’emploisà pourvoir par année sera d’environ 24 100.

• L’économie manitobaine verra 168 400nouveaux travailleurs se joindre à la populationactive pendant la période 2018-2024, soitenviron 24 100 travailleurs par an.

• Le taux de chômage au Manitoba devraitdemeurer à 5,3 pour cent en 2018 et en 2024.

• Après le rajustement pour l’inflation,l’économie du Manitoba devrait connaître unecroissance moyenne de 1,7 pour cent par andurant la période 2018-2024.

• Sur le marché du travail manitobain, le revenuhoraire du travail devrait augmenter de 2,3pour cent par an en moyenne pendant lessept prochaines années. Pendant cette mêmepériode, on s’attend à une augmentationmoyenne de 3,6 pour cent par an du revenupersonnel au Manitoba.

Demande totale de main-d’œuvre

• Un total de 168 700 emplois seront ouverts àl’embauche entre 2018 et 2024.

• Selon les prévisions, la demande d’expansion(c’est-à-dire, le besoin de nouveaux postescausé par la croissance économique) devraitouvrir 58 000 emplois (soit 34 pour cent dutotal). La demande de remplacement (emploisouverts en raison de départs à la retraite etde décès) devrait quant à elle créer 110 700ouvertures de poste (66 pour cent du total).

• Le groupe professionnel qui devrait connaîtrele plus grand nombre d’ouvertures de posteest celui de la vente et des services avec 33300 postes à pourvoir, soit 19,7 pour cent dutotal des perspectives d’ouverture d’emplois auManitoba.

• Dans le domaine des affaires, des finances etde l’administration, on estime qu’il y aura 26400 postes à pourvoir (soit 15,7 pour cent).Dans le domaine de l’éducation, du droit etdes services sociaux, communautaires ougouvernementaux, ce chiffre s’élèvera à 23 600emplois (soit 14,0 pour cent).

• Au sein du groupe professionnel de la venteet des services, la plus grande partie desoffres d’emploi devrait avoir lieu dans lessous-groupes suivants : nettoyeurs, vendeursde commerce de détail, serveurs et serveusesau comptoir, aides de cuisine et personnelassimilé.

• Pour la période envisagée, la demande deremplacement est plus importante que lademande d’expansion dans tous les groupesprofessionnels. On note cependant que,dans le domaine de la santé ainsi que danscelui des ventes et des services, la demanded’expansion est presque égale à la demandede remplacement.

• En ce qui concerne les exigences relatives auniveau de scolarité, pendant la période desept années envisagée, environ 60 pour centdes 168 700 offres d’emploi prévues devraientnécessiter un certain niveau de formation etd’études postsecondaires (p. ex. un diplômecollégial ou universitaire ou un certificatprofessionnel). Les 40 pour cent restants nenécessiteront peut-être pas d’études ou deformations postsecondaires, mais pourraientdemander une formation spécifique à l’emploiou une formation en cours d’emploi.

5Prévisions par profession pour le marché du travail du Manitoba de 2018 à 2024

Offre totale de main-d’œuvre

• Il devrait y avoir 168 400 travailleursadditionnels au cours de la période envisagéepour contrebalancer la demande totale demain-d’œuvre.

• L’offre supplémentaire de main-d’œuvre devraitse ventiler comme suit : 92 600 personnesfaisant leur entrée sur le marché du travail, untotal net de 38 600 personnes provenant de lamigration et un total net de 37 200 personnesprovenant de la mobilité de la main-d’œuvre.

• Étant donné que 168 400 nouveaux travailleursse joindront à la population active et que 110700 postes deviendront vacants en raison dedéparts à la retraite et de décès, la populationactive du Manitoba devrait s’accroître de 57700 travailleurs pendant la période envisagée.

Écarts entre l’offre et la demande

• Dans l’ensemble, le marché du travail duManitoba devrait demeurer équilibré au coursde la période envisagée, avec une offre globalede main-d’œuvre en mesure de répondre à lademande du marché du travail. Toutefois, ilpourrait y avoir une pénurie ou un excédent demain-d’œuvre pour certaines professions etdans certaines régions de la province. Chaqueannée entre 2018 et 2024, l’offre de main-d’œuvre devrait être supérieure à la demandede 6 400 travailleurs en moyenne.

• Le taux de chômage devrait demeurerrelativement constant tout au long de lapériode envisagée. Dans l’ensemble, le taux dechômage devrait baisser, passant de 5,3 pourcent en 2018 à 5,2 pour cent au cours des cinqannées suivantes, pour remonter de nouveau à5,3 pour cent en 2024.

Pourquoi les chiffres changent-ils?

• Au fur et à mesure que l’économie évolue, leshypothèses et données macroéconomiquesqui sous-tendent le présent rapport sont misesà jour, et ce, régulièrement, en utilisant lesmeilleurs chiffres existant à chaque moment.Par exemple, les changements économiquestels que la baisse du prix du pétrole en2014-2015 et la performance économiquenationale inférieure aux prévisions ont desrépercussions importantes sur le marché dutravail au Manitoba, au Canada et dans lemonde entier. D’autre part, chaque mise à jourdu rapport couvre une nouvelle période desept ans. De ce fait, il n’est pas recommandéde comparer directement l’approvisionnementet la demande de main-d’œuvre d’une année àl’autre.

• Veuillez consulter le chapitre 3 et l’annexe 1pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie et leshypothèses macroéconomiques utilisées dansce rapport.


Chapter 1: Manitoba Labour Market Outlook Summary Findings, 2018 to 2024

1.1 IntroductionIn this chapter, the summary findings from Manitoba’s custom projection are reviewed and the overall outlook for Manitoba’s labour market is presented based on a number of indicators. These include the expected number of future job openings as well as labour demand and supply by occupational group. Based on these indicators, an estimate for future training requirements and occupational and skill demands is provided.

The model used to produce Manitoba’s custom workforce outlook starts with the use of macroeconomic models of the province’s economy to create an outlook for Manitoba’s economic performance and then estimates the number and sources of workers required considering the province’s expected future economic and demographic performance. Finally, it explores possible sources for these requirements and the number of workers needed from those sources to meet these future requirements.

The possibility of labour shortages is identified by examining the supply sources to determine if it is possible to achieve the required supply from these sources. For example, the model estimates the number of young people leaving the education

system required to meet future supply needs from this source. If there is insufficient capacity to provide education and training to a sufficient number of individuals, there will be a shortage of workers.

An important difference in this approach from that adopted by other models is that the occupational projections contained in this report provide an estimated amount of immigration required to meet labour market needs, rather than setting an assumption for migration that is not directly linked to the expected future performance of the economy. Workforce demand and supply at the aggregate level adjusts over time to meet labour requirements.

The glossary of terms below describes some of the key concepts throughout the Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts report.

GlossaryJob openings = expected change in workforce demand over a specific time periodExpansion demand = determined by changes in economic performance that lead to changes in employment and the amount of excess workers required to meet normal turnover in the workforceReplacement demand = job openings created by people retiring from the labour force or dying, influenced by the aging of the populationNew entrants = people between 15 and 30 years old joining the workforce for the first time after completing their education

Deaths and retirements = these subtract from the labour forceNet in-migration = people moving into or out of a geographic area to take or find a jobNet other mobility = all other sources of labour force change, including people changing occupations, workers re-entering the labour force and changes in participation ratesNet in-mobility = net in-migration plus net other mobility, which can add to or subtract from the labour force


1.2 Manitoba’s Labour Demand

The outlook for labour demand in the economic model is determined by the expected growth of the economy, along with the impact of changing market conditions. For example, changes in the cost of labour relative to that for capital will have an effect on the demand for workers. Tightening labour markets raise wages relative to capital costs, causing employers to substitute capital for workers.

The model also considers the impact of migration on economic growth and labour market activity, as well as assumptions about trend growth in productivity that impacts the need for workers.

Labour demand in Manitoba is projected to grow from 680,300 in 2018 to 731,600 in 2024 – an increase of 51,300 jobs, through economic growth. Over the forecast period, this means an estimated 7.5 per cent growth in labour demand, or an average of 1.2 per cent each year.

Thousands

740

730

720

710

700

690

680

670

660

650

Chart 1: Manitoba Labour Demand2018 to 2024

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

680.3

731.6

1.2.1 Sources of Labour Demand

New jobs created as a result of economic growth are referred to as expansion demand. Expansion demand is expected to be strongest in 2019, 2020 and 2021, when it is forecasted to be 9,800, 9,100 and 8,900 respectively.

In addition to the expansion demand of 58,000, people exiting the labour market on account of retirements and deaths (replacement demand) will result in an additional 110,700 job openings

between 2018 and 2024. In the first and last year of the forecast period, replacement demand is expected to be more than twice as high as the job openings expected due to expansion demand.

Overall, expansion plus replacement demand are projected to result in a total of 168,700 job openings between 2018 and 2024.


Number

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0

Chart 2: Total Job Openings by Source2018 to 2024

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Deaths Retirements Expansion Demand

1.2.2 Job Openings by Occupation

The occupation group with the highest number of projected job openings is sales and service at 33,300 or 19.7 per cent of the total Manitoba job openings outlook. This is followed by business, finance and administration occupations at 26,400 or 15.7 per cent; and occupations in education, law and social, community and government services at 23,600 or 14.0 per cent. Together, these three occupation groups account for 50 per cent of total projected job openings. The occupation group with the fewest projected job openings is natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations with only 2,300 projected job openings over the forecast period.

Analysis of job openings by more detailed three–digit National Occupational Classification (NOC) codes show that within sales and service occupations, the highest number of job openings will be for the following three occupation sub-groups:

• cleaners

• retail salespersons

• food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related occupations


Similarly, within the business, finance and administration occupation group, the highest number of job openings is expected for the following sub-groups:

• general office workers

• administrative and regulatory occupations

• office administrative assistants - general, legal and medical

Within occupations in education, law and social, community and government services, the highest number of job openings will be for the following three occupation sub-groups:

• home care providers and educational support occupations

• secondary and elementary school teachers and educational counselors

• paraprofessional occupations in legal, social, community and education services

Refer to Appendix 3 for job openings by three-digit NOC codes, recalling the caution around interpretation of data pertaining to smaller occupation groups.

As Chart 3 illustrates, for all occupation groups, replacement demand is more prominent than expansion demand over the forecast period. Approximately 66 per cent of projected new job openings are due to replacement demand (retirements and deaths), which will affect recruitment in all occupation groups. Expansion demand, or new jobs that result from economic growth, will account for 34 per cent of the 168,700 total job openings over the forecast period.

Comparing occupational groups, all net gains in job openings in occupations in natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations are the result of replacement demand because expansion demand in this occupational group is negative. Management occupations (78 per cent) and Trades occupations (77 per cent) also have relatively high shares of openings due to replacement demand amongst occupational groups, while occupations in Sales and Service and Health will see a relatively large share of openings due to economic growth.

Table 1 shows projected job openings between 2018 and 2024 for the 10 major occupation groups based on the 2016 NOC codes (one-digit level). Table 2 presents the same information by more detailed occupation groupings (NOC codes at the two-digit level).


Chart 3: Occupational Groups (One-digit NOC) by Job Openings,Replacement and Expansion Demand - 2018 to 2024

-5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000

Occupations in manufacturing and utilities

Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations

Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations

Sales and service occupations

Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport

Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services

Health occupations

Natural and applied sciences and related occupations

Business, finance and administration occupations

Management occupations

Number of Workers

Expansion Demand Replacement Demand


Table 1: Job openings by one-digit NOC and Source - 2018 to 2024

Expansion Replacement Total jobopenings

Replacementdemand %

Management occupations 5,100 18,400 23,500 78.3%


8,100 18,300 26,400 69.3%


2,300 5,300 7,700 69.8%

Health occupations 8,100 9,500 17,600 53.8%


9,600 14,000 23,600 59.2%


2,000 2,200 4,200 53.4%

Sales and service occupations 15,700 17,600 33,300 53.0%


4,900 16,700 21,600 77.3%

Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations

-200 2,500 2,300 110.0%


2,400 6,200 8,600 71.9%

Total 58,000 110,700 168,700 65.6%


Table 2: Job openings by Two-digit NOC and Source - 2018 to 2024

Expansion Demand

Replacement demand

Total hiring demand

Senior management occupations 500 1,900 2,400

Specialized middle management occupations 1,900 4,800 6,700

Middle management occupations in retail and wholesale trade and customer services

2,200 4,800 7,000

Middle management occupations in trades, transport, production and utilities

500 6,900 7,400

Professional occupations in business and finance 1,300 2,900 4,200

Administrative and financial supervisors and administrative occupations

2,700 6,500 9,200

Finance, insurance and related business administrative occupations

500 1,600 2,100

Office support occupations 2,700 5,300 8,000

Distribution, tracking and scheduling co-ordination occupations

900 2,100 2,900

Professional occupations in natural and applied sciences

1,100 2,400 3,500

Technical occupations related to natural and applied sciences

1,200 2,900 4,100

Professional occupations in nursing 2,600 3,000 5,600

Professional occupations in health (except nursing) 1,200 1,400 2,700

Technical occupations in health 1,500 1,800 3,300

Assisting occupations in support of health services 2,800 3,200 6,000

Professional occupations in education services 2,600 4,500 7,100

Professional occupations in law and social, community and government services

1,500 2,500 4,100

Paraprofessional occupations in legal, social, community and education services

2,300 2,400 4,800

Occupations in front-line public protection services 500 700 1,200

Care providers and educational, legal and public protection support occupations

2,700 3,700 6,500

Continued on next page.


Expansion Demand

Replacement demand

Total hiring demand

Professional occupations in art and culture 900 900 1,900

Technical occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport

1,000 1,300 2,400

Retail sales supervisors and specialized sales occupations

1,300 2,100 3,400

Service supervisors and specialized service occupations

2,400 2,700 5,000

Sales representatives and salespersons - wholesale and retail trade

2,500 3,200 5,700

Service representatives and other customer and personal services occupations

3,100 3,300 6,400

Sales support occupations 2,000 1,500 3,500

Service support and other service occupations, n.e.c.* 4,400 4,900 9,300

Industrial, electrical and construction trades 1,800 5,000 6,800

Maintenance and equipment operation trades 1,400 3,700 5,100

other installers, repairers and servicers and material handlers

700 1,400 2,000

Transport and heavy equipment operation and related maintenance occupations

700 5,600 6,200

Trades helpers, construction labourers and related occupations

400 1,000 1,400

Supervisors and technical occupations in natural resources, agriculture and related production

-200 600 400

Workers in natural resources, agriculture and related production

-300 1,300 1,000

Harvesting, landscaping and natural resources labourers

300 600 900

Processing, manufacturing and utilities supervisors and central control operators

300 1,200 1,600

Processing and manufacturing machine operators and related production workers

1,000 2,100 3,100

Assemblers in manufacturing 400 1,600 2,100

Labourers in processing, manufacturing and utilities 700 1,300 1,900

*n.e.c. – not elsewhere classified


1.2.3 Job Openings by Skills, Education and Training

It is projected that of the 168,700 forecasted job openings, approximately 102,000 positions (60 per cent) will require some post-secondary education and training (e.g. college, trade certification, university).

These positions are managerial and professional occupations, classified as NOC 2016 skill level 0/A, or technical and skilled occupations at NOC 2011 skill level B.

The remaining 40 per cent of projected job openings, or 66,700 positions, may not require

post-secondary training or education, but may have occupation-specific or on-the-job training requirements. The majority of these job openings are intermediate, clerical and operator occupations (skill level C), which usually require secondary school and/or occupation-specific training. Elemental and labour occupations (skill level D), which usually require on-the-job training, make up a smaller portion.

Chart 4 shows the total job openings outlook between NOC skill levels 0 and A combined, B, C and D for 2018 to 2024.

Chart 4: Manitoba Job Openings by Skill Level2018 to 2024

49,80030%

49,400 29%

52,60031%

16,900 10%

Managerial and Professional Usually Requiring a University Education

Technical and Skilled Usually Requiring College or Apprenticeship Training

Intermediate, Clerical and Operator Usually Requiring Secondary School and/or Occupation Specific Training

Elemental and Labouring Usually Providing On the Job Training


Replacement demand is projected to be highest for the subgroup of managerial occupations at NOC Skill Level 0 with 78.3 per cent while almost half of Elemental and Labouring occupation job openings will be due to expansion (45.6 per cent).

In terms of total openings, the largest numbers of expansion demand-driven jobs are expected in skill level B and C at 16,800 and 17,100 respectively (refer to Table 3).

Table 3: Job openings by NOC Skill Level Requirements, 2018 to 2024

NOC Skill Levels Expansion demand

Replacement demand

Total jobopenings

Replacementdemand %

NOC 0/A - Managerial and Professional

16,400 36,200 52,600 68.8%

NOC B - Technical and Skilled 16,800 32,600 49,400 66.0%

NOC C - Intermediate, Clerical and operator

17,100 32,700 49,800 65.7%

NOC D - Elemental and Labouring 7,700 9,200 16,900 54.4%

Total 58,000 110,700 168,700 65.6%

1.2.4 High-demand occupations by Industry Sector

Manitoba’s occupational forecasting model estimates the number and sources of workers required to address the expected future economic and demographic performance of the province through the application of macroeconomic models. The projected demand for workers is also impacted by changing market conditions, for example the cost of labour relative to that for capital.

Table 4 shows the occupations in each industry sector with the highest number of expected job openings created over the forecast period through both changes in economic performance (expansion demand) and through normal turnover in the workforce through retirements and deaths (replacement demand).

Readers are cautioned against drawing precise conclusions based on individual occupations or industry groups. The projection results should

instead be used to observe general trends and relative comparisons, rather than to cite precise numerical forecasts.

While these projections provide an average of the overall Manitoba jobs outlook, they are not able to reflect granular, local level labour market realities or regional, niche labour market scenarios. Occupational demand may differ across Manitoba regions and communities.

Finally, there may be unique conditions within specific occupations that are not captured in the analysis, and economic and demographic assumptions and conditions may change over time.

Refer to Appendix 4 for job openings by four-digit NOC codes, recalling the caution around interpretation of the data, particularly for smaller occupation groups.


Table 4: Top Occupations by job openings and sector, 2018-2024

Sector Occupation Number of Job Openings

Management

Retail and wholesale trade managers 4,700

Managers in agriculture 3,400

Restaurant and food service managers 1,100

Manufacturing managers 1,100

Construction managers 800

Business, Finance and

Administration

General office support workers 2,900

Administrative officers 2,500

Administrative assistants 2,400

Accounting and related clerks 1,800

Financial auditors and accountants 1,600

Natural and applied sciences

and related occupations

Information systems analysts and consultants 800

Electronic service technicians (household and business equipment) 600

Computer programmers and interactive media developers 500

Computer network technicians 500

Civil engineers 400

Health occupations

Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses 5,400

Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates 5,300

Licensed practical nurses 800

Specialist physicians 600

General practitioners and family physicians 600

Occupations in education,

law and social, community and

government services

Elementary school and kindergarten teachers 3,400

Elementary and secondary school teacher assistants 2,800

Social and community service workers 2,200

Home support workers, housekeepers and related occupations 2,100

Early childhood educators and assistants 2,000

Continued on next page.


Sector Occupation Number of Job Openings

Occupations in art, culture, recreation and

sport

Musicians and singers 500

Graphic designers and illustrators 500

Program leaders and instructors in recreation, sport and fitness 400

Authors and writers 300

Painters, sculptors and other visual artists 300

Sales and service

occupations

Retail salespersons 4,600

Janitors, caretakers and building superintendents 2,900

Light duty cleaners 2,800

Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related support occupations 2,400

Cooks 2,000

Trades, transport and

equipment operators

and related occupations

Transport truck drivers 3,100

Automotive service technicians, truck and bus mechanics and mechanical repairers 1,600

Material handlers 1,400

Carpenters 1,300

Welders and related machine operators 1,100

Natural resources, agriculture and related occupations

General farm workers 900

Landscaping and grounds maintenance labourers 900

Fishermen/women 200

Agricultural service contractors, farm supervisors and specialized livestock workers 100

Contractors and supervisors, landscaping, grounds maintenance and horticulture services 100

Occupations in

manufacturing and utilities

Labourers in food, beverage and associated products processing 900

Mechanical assemblers and inspectors 700

Other labourers in processing, manufacturing and utilities 600

Industrial butchers and meat cutters, poultry preparers and related workers 500

Power engineers and power systems operators 400


1.3 Manitoba’s Labour Supply

1.3.1 Labour Force Outlook

The occupational forecasting model uses population estimates produced by the Manitoba Bureau of Statistics combined with projected age-specific labour force participation rates produced by SECINC to project Manitoba’s labour force. The model estimates Manitoba’s labour force at 681,000 people in 2017.

Manitoba has observed growth in the labour force over the past 10 years and is projected to see continued growth throughout the seven-year projection period.

Over the forecast period, Manitoba’s labour force is expected to grow by 52,000 people (7.6 per cent) to 739,000 people by 2024. This represents an average annual growth rate of 1.2 per cent, or an average of 8,300 persons per year.

Within the projection period, Manitoba’s labour force is expected to grow at the highest rates in 2019 and 2020 (1.3 and 1.4 per cent respectively), while sitting between 1.1 and 1.2 per cent over the remainder of the forecast period.

Thousands

750

740

730

720

710

700

690

680

670

660

650

Chart 5: Manitoba Labour Force,Estimated and Projected - 2017 to 2024

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

680,9 (e)

687,1 (f)

738,6 (f)


1.3.2 Labour Force Participation

Manitoba’s overall labour force participation rate is projected to stay relatively constant between 2018 and 2024. It is expected to increase slightly to a value of 67.3 percentage points in 2021, before declining back to its 2018 rate of 67.0 percentage points by 2024. The slight decline in the latter years of the forecast period reflects the combined effects of a recent downward trend in participation for more than half of the age-sex cohorts, particularly among age groups with the highest participation, and the increasing proportion of elders in the labour force population.

Per cent67.4

67.3

67.2

67.1

67.0

66.9

66.8

Chart 6: Manitoba Labour Force Participation Rate, Estimated and Projected - 2017 to 2024

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

67.2

67.0

67.2


1.3.3 Sources of Labour Supply

Over the forecast period, Manitoba’s labour market supply outlook estimates that approximately 92,600 new entrants, 38,700 net in-migrants and 37,200 net other mobility workers (for a total 168,400 workers) will be required due to people leaving the labour force due to deaths or retirements and to fill new jobs created as a result of economic growth. With 168,400 workers joining the labour force and 110,700 people leaving due to retirements and deaths, the total labour force in Manitoba is projected to increase by 57,700 persons.

The components of the projected change in Manitoba’s labour force are:

• new entrants (persons entering the labour force for the first time), which add to the labour force

• deaths and retirements, which subtract from the labour force

• net in-mobility (net in-migration plus net other mobility), which can add or subtract from the labour force

• Net in-migration refers to people moving into or out of a geographic area to take or find a job.

• Net other mobility includes all other sources of change in the labour force, such as people changing occupations, workers re-entering the labour force (e.g. after an illness) and changes in participation rates caused by increased wage rates or social factors (e.g. increased desire for people to enter the labour force).

New entrants remain a consistent and significant component of the estimated supply over the forecast period, averaging about 13,200 per year. The labour force is projected to lose approximately 15,800 workers per year because of retirements and deaths. As a result, a steady supply of net in-migrants over the period is projected to be required to meet job opening requirements.


Number of Workers30,000

20,000

10,000

0

-10,000

-20,000

Chart 7: Sources of Labour Force Change2018 to 2024

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

New EntrantsNet In-MigrationNet Other In-Mobility RetirementsDeaths Labour Force Change

1.4 Gaps: Labour Demand less Labour Supply

Overall, the labour market is expected to remain generally balanced over the projection period, meaning the supply of labour will be adequate to meet labour demand. However, labour shortages may exist for certain occupations and in local labour markets.

Table 4 shows the gap between labour demand and labour supply for each year between 2018 and 2024.

In all seven years of the projection period, labour supply in Manitoba is expected to be higher than

labour demand. This gap between the supply of labour and labour demand averages 6,400 workers per year. The expected gap is highest for 2018 and 2024, closing slightly to an average of 6,100 workers over the remainder of the forecast period.

For each year of the forecast period, the gap between labour demand and supply as a percentage of the total labour force is small (ranging from 0.8 to 1.0 per cent) and therefore, the labour market is expected to remain relatively balanced.


Table 5: Labour Demand and Supply Gap Indicators, 2018 to 2024

Variable 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Labour Force Demand 680,300 690,100 699,200 708,100 716,100 724,600 731,600

Labour Force Supply 687,100 695,900 705,300 714,100 722,500 730,900 738,600

Excess Supply -6,800 -5,800 -6,100 -6,100 -6,400 -6,300 -7,000

Labour shortages by occupation groups

Labour markets are expected to remain balanced for each of the 10 major occupational groups (one-digit NOC level). For all occupation groups, supply exceeds demand in all years of the projection period. It should be noted that this does not mean that shortages or surpluses may not exist for individual occupations within the broad occupation groups.

The labour supply forecasting model is based on the assumption that the labour force for an occupation in the long run will be determined by the demand for the occupation. Labour supply adjusts to labour demand in various ways, including inter-occupation mobility and increased labour force participation rate (net other mobility).

Between 2018 and 2024, net other mobility is forecasted to add 37,200 persons to Manitoba’s labour supply. In other words, the model forecasts that the increased demand for labour over the next few years will be partly met with an increase in the number of Manitobans re-entering the labour force (higher labour force participation rates) and Manitobans moving to occupations in higher demand.

If these assumptions are not met, more labour shortages could be expected.

Occupations with significant labour market tightness

MethodologyThe occupational model used to create Manitoba’s labour market occupational forecasts estimates the supply requirements needed to meet the demand for individual occupations.

Accordingly, there are no significant shortages or persistent surpluses for the occupations in these projections and analysts should examine the estimated requirements to see if it is possible to achieve them.

To assist in identifying potential areas of future labour market tightness, a ranking approach is employed to provide an indication of the “relative” risk or difficulty across occupations of obtaining their estimated supply requirements.

This relative risk is referred to as a supply risk and originates from the fact that the supply requirements estimated by the models may not be forthcoming in reality.

This ranking is not intended to indicate that an occupation with a relatively high supply risk will not obtain the required supply. Rather, it signals that there is a higher risk relative to other occupations.

Four ranking measures are used to determine the supply risk. One focuses on demand, one on supply, one on the demand supply balance and the other is a combined rank that is a weighted average of the other ranks.

The demand measure focuses on “demand pressure” as measured by the number of job openings for an occupation divided by the size of the occupation’s labour force in the previous year, which is similar to the labour force growth rate for the occupation. If the demand growth for an occupation is high relative to that for other occupations, it will receive a higher rank as it will likely require relatively more effort to find the workers needed.


The supply measure focuses on migration and is measured as the ratio of required net in-migration and the occupation’s labour force in the previous year. Occupations where supply requirements are largely met through migration may be at risk if these requirements are not accommodated through additional immigration or if Canadian workers do not wish or are not available to move to the province.

The third measure is the difference between an occupation’s actual and normal unemployment rate, the unemployment rate gap. Occupations with negative unemployment rate gaps reflect tighter labour markets and vice-versa.

There are three ranks numbered from 1 to 3 for each measure:

• Rank of 1: a situation where there are more than sufficient workers available to meet demand. Demand pressure is lower than normal, there is less reliance than normal on migrants to fill jobs, and the unemployment rate is noticeably higher than the normal rate. It should be relatively easy to find workers;

• Rank of 2: represents a normal market situation where organizations can rely on their traditional methods for obtaining workers. Demand pressure is normal, organizations may have to rely on migrants to meet supply, but this situation is not different from what they have faced in the past, and the unemployment rate gap is small; and

• Rank of 3: a type of market situation where demand pressure is quite strong, more emphasis than normal must be placed on organizations to access migrants to meet their worker requirements and the unemployment rate is below its normal rate. It will be relatively more difficult to find workers.

It should be noted that it is important to consider the size of the occupations when using the supply risk results, as occupations with small sizes can produce ranks that may be misleading.

For example, an occupation with a labour force of only 20 that sees its labour force increase to 40 shows a 100 per cent increase as the demand pressure measure. This would certainly put it near the top of occupations for supply risk through the demand pressure rank.

The data provided in this report is accordingly restricted to occupations where the employment is 150.

ResultsLabour market tightness may exist temporarily in an occupation for only a few consecutive years, for example because of anticipated major projects, and may disappear after completion. In some occupations however, labour market tightness may persist over a longer period of time, potentially due to rising numbers of retirements and deaths as the population ages. In order to identify occupations where more research may be required to address potential long-term supply risks, occupations with a weighted average combined rank of 3 in at least 2 years of the 7-year forecast period are highlighted in Table 5. For these occupations, the weighted average of the supply, demand and unemployment rate gap measures exceeds 2.5. As noted above, only occupations with at least 150 individuals employed in 2017 have been considered for the analysis. These occupations are likely to display a higher degree of demand pressure and relatively higher difficulty filling job openings over the forecast period compared to other occupations.

In terms of industry sectors, natural and applied sciences and related occupations display the highest degree of relative labour market tightness over the forecast period, with 24.4 per cent of occupations showing high demand pressures in at least one year, followed by health occupations (19.4 per cent).

Refer to Appendix 4 for labour market tightness rankings for each of the 7 years of the forecast period by four-digit NOC codes, recalling the caution around interpretation of the data.


Table 6: Occupations experiencing Labour Market Tightness in at least 3 years, 2018 to 2024

Occupational group Occupation

Business, finance and administration

Property administrators

Library assistants and clerks

Health information management occupations

Health

Optometrists

Chiropractors

Respiratory therapists, clinical perfusionists and cardiopulmonary technologists

Practitioners of natural healing

Education, law and social, community and government services

Secondary school teachers

Firefighters

Occupations in art, culture recreation

and sport

Authors and writers

Painters, sculptors and other visual artists

Library and public archive technicians

Announcers and broadcasters

Artisans and craftspersons

Sales and service Tailors, dressmakers, furriers and milliners

Trades Tool and Die Makers

Natural resources, agriculture and

related occupationsFishermen/women

Manufacturing and Utilities

Paper converting machine operators

Assemblers and inspectors, electrical appliance, apparatus and equipment manufacturing

*n.e.c. – not elsewhere classified


Chapter 2: Economic and Labour Market Outlooks

2.1 IntroductionEconomic and demographic variables such as gross domestic product (GDP), domestic consumption, commodity prices, population and immigration serve as inputs for the occupational model that is used to generate custom occupational forecasts for Manitoba. This chapter provides a review of the economic and labour market outlook from internal and external forecasting sources.

2.2 International, National and Provincial Economies

2.2.1 International and National Outlook

The global economic upswing that began around mid-2016 has become broader and stronger according to the World Economic Outlook report. Advanced economies as a group will continue to expand above their potential growth rates this year and next before decelerating.

World growth strengthened in 2017 to 3.8 per cent, driven by investment recovery in advanced economies; continued strong growth in emerging Asia; a notable upswing in emerging Europe; and signs of recovery in several commodity exporters. Looking ahead, global growth is expected to increase to 3.9 per cent in 2018 and 2019. This rise is due to strong momentum, favorable market sentiment, accommodative financial conditions, and the domestic and international repercussions of expansionary fiscal policy in the United States. The partial recovery in commodity prices should allow conditions in commodity exporters to gradually improve.

According to the Bank of Canada Monetary Policy report of Spring 2018, the outlook for growth in the United States is strong due to new fiscal stimulus. The US economy has been expanding at a solid pace, with private domestic demand rebounding at the end of 2017. The US economy

is now forecast to grow on average at about 2 3/4 per cent over 2018–19, well above the rate of potential growth. Consumption is expected to rise at a healthy pace, underpinned by a strong labour market and fiscal stimulus.

An active labour market in the US has contributed to more than 200,000 new jobs created per month, on average, over the past six months. Rising prime-age labour force participation in recent years has also led to a higher estimate of potential output.

Business investment should be supported by a solid expansion of private demand, as well as by tax changes. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth is projected to ease to around 2 per cent in 2020, close to US potential growth, as support from fiscal and monetary policy diminishes.

Canada’s economic growth has moderated, and the economy is operating close to capacity. Temporary factors impacted performance in 2017, particularly trade volatility and transportation issues, and shifts in the housing market due to regulatory changes. Real GDP growth is now projected to be about 2 per cent in both 2018 and 2019 and to ease to 1.8 per cent in 2020.


Over the projection horizon, the composition of growth is expected to shift, with a declining contribution from household spending and a rising relative contribution from business investment and exports. Higher interest rates are anticipated to contribute to this adjustment. Monetary and fiscal policy are expected to support economic activity over the projection horizon and to help mitigate the drag on business investment and exports associated with trade-policy uncertainty and competitiveness challenges.

While real GDP is expected to grow at around 2 per cent, on average, in the first half of 2018, the Bank of Canada anticipates a swing in quarter-over-quarter growth rates. Fluctuations are found mainly in exports, housing and investment.

The estimate for economic growth in the first quarter of 2018 is also revised down, largely reflecting the shifting of activity across quarters.

Potential output growth is expected to be stronger than estimated in April 2017, at 1.8 per cent between 2018 and 2020, and 1.9 per cent in 2021 (Box 2 and the Appendix). Growth of trend labour productivity is expected to improve, owing to stronger business investment. Trend labour input growth will continue to slow, due to population aging, with immigration providing only a partial offset.

The economy continues to operate close to capacity for three consecutive quarters according to the Bank of Canada report. Although firms added to the economy’s potential in recent quarters by increasingly investing in machinery, equipment and structures and expanding employment, some continue to face significant production constraints.

2.2.2 Provincial Review and Outlook

Manitoba’s economy will expand steadily over the forecast but at a slower pace than over the past decade as mentioned by the Conference Board Manitoba Outlook (Winter 2017). Mine closures, including the Birchtree nickel mine and Hudbay’s 777 are impacting the pace of growth. Alongside a booming agriculture sector, large investments

in housing and hydroelectric power are forecast to keep real GDP growth positive. However, weak employment growth, partly due to reductions in mining, will lead to relatively low growth in overall consumption, which will be reflected in retail sales.

The Manitoba Finance Survey of Economic Forecasts of May 10, 2018 indicates that Manitoba’s real GDP is expected to increase by 2.0 per cent compared to 2.1 per cent growth for Canada. Manitoba ranks fifth among the provinces. In 2019, Manitoba’s real GDP is expected to increase by 1.7 per cent compared to 1.9 per cent for Canada. Manitoba ranks sixth, tied with Quebec.

Key IndustriesAccording to the Conference Board mining output, construction activity, and business investment are forecast to decline substantially throughout the later years of the forecast. Once construction of the Bipole III transmission line is completed this year and spending on construction of the Keeyask Generating Station starts to ease in 2019, Manitoba’s real GDP growth will slow to an average of 1.3 per cent per year over 2020–22. However, the prospects are brighter for several sectors, including agriculture and real estate.

AgricultureReal agriculture output rose 3.8 per cent last year, despite excess moisture in the spring followed by dry conditions across most of the province.

ManufacturingReal manufacturing output is forecast to rise 2.6 per cent this year, after expanding 3.1 per cent in 2017. Shipments of transportation equipment have been growing rapidly over the last five years and are expected to continue growing through the forecast as demand expands for sustainable and fuel-efficient buses and tractors.

While growth in food manufacturing sales has been relatively low in the last five years, the trend seems to be reversing as the agriculture sector improves. Food manufacturing is the top source of revenue in Manitoba’s manufacturing sector,


followed by the production of transportation equipment. The new pea-processing plant in Roquette is expected to improve food manufacturing sales when it begins operation in mid-2019. Overall, manufacturing output will grow at an average annual rate of 2.1 per cent over the next three years.

MiningVale’s Birchtree nickel facility in Thompson was put on care and maintenance status late last year, releasing around 150 employees on site and up to 50 employees in downstream processing. Layoffs at Vale’s Manitoba operations will grow to 837 by the end of this year, according to the vice-president of Vale’s Manitoba operations. Hudbay Minerals has scheduled the closure of its Reed mine in late 2018 and its 777 mine in 2020.4 In turn, Hudbay will be looking to divert its focus from the Flin Flon region to Lalor, which has sizable deposits of zinc, copper, and gold. Overall, because of soft metal prices and dwindling reserves, real output from metal mining is forecast to decline 4 per cent this year and 12 per cent in 2019. Without new projects on the horizon, mining production will continue to decline through the forecast, dampening overall economic growth in Manitoba.

EmploymentThe Conference Board Manitoba Outlook estimates that employment growth will slow to 0.5 per cent in 2018 after over 10,000 net jobs were added last year, which was almost double the expansion of the labour force. The services sector will continue to lead job growth throughout the forecast. After completion of the Bipole III transmission line the construction sector is projected to lose a net 2,370 jobs in 2018–19, reducing employment growth to 0.2 per cent in 2019. Job losses in metal mining will also contribute to lower employment growth over the next few years.

Sluggish employment growth implies muted growth in household disposable incomes over the next few years. Real household consumption will rise only 1.5 per cent in 2018 and 1.3 per cent in 2019, after increasing 2.3 per cent last year. This will be reflected in wholesale and

retail trade which are both forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 1.1 per cent over the next few years. Consumption of services related to dwellings and property will expand 2.7 per cent in 2018 and 3.3 per cent in 2018, after housing starts grew by a staggering 41 per cent last year.

2.2.3 Major Construction and Investment Projects in Manitoba

ConstructionAccording to Buildforce Construction and Looking Forward Maintenance report for 2018- 2027, a strong surge in housing starts and non-residential building demands raised construction employment in Manitoba to record levels in 2017. Construction activity may decrease from 2018 onward as engineering construction and non-residential ICI (industrial, commercial, and institutional) building demands decline, while housing starts come off record levels. Total construction employment is expected to remain near historically high levels over the next decade.

Engineering construction, the dominant source of employment growth between 2014 and 2016, is expected to trend down through 2024 due to completion of major projects. Over the same period, related employment should fall by 2,600 jobs, or 21 per cent from the 2017 starting point.

Manitoba’s construction workforce has grown to meet the pace of increased activity over the past decade, attracting new workers and drawing down unemployment to historically low levels. However, coming retirements are expected to have an impact, and recruitment of new entrants will be needed to sustain the construction workforce at this level.

InvestmentManitoba experienced impressive growth in the housing market in 2017. While housing starts are expected to cool this year, residential investment is forecast to continue growing. Major projects such as True North Square, and the 40-storey condominium tower at 300 Main Street are also positive. Non-residential investment grew 16.3 per cent in 2017, adding $4.6 billion to total business investment.


Overall, business investment is forecast to expand 8.1 per cent this year and decrease 2.8 per cent next year and 4.9 per cent in 2020. In February, J.R. Simplot Company announced a $460-million expansion of its food processing operations in Portage la Prairie; construction is expected in the spring.

Other projects contributing to economic growth include the Enbridge Line 3 replacement, adding $1.2 billion in non-residential investment between 2019 and 2021. The Manitoba–Minnesota transmission project is expected to increase Manitoba Hydro’s export capacity by 38 per cent once approved.

The announcement by J.R. Simplot of a $460 million expansion of their food processing operations in Portage la Prairie will offer a boost to the local economy and Manitoba’s manufacturing sector at large.

2.2.4 SECINC’s Occupation Model: Underlying Economic Scenario for Manitoba’s 2018 Custom Projection

The performance of the economy, as measured by various economic and demographic indicators, is the main driver of the SECINC occupation model’s workforce outlook. Economic growth drives labour demand, while population and age distribution have influence over labour supply.

Projected growth rates from 2018 to 2024 for some of the key indicators utilized to produce Manitoba’s custom projection are shown in Table 5. Manitoba Growth, Enterprise and Trade, the Manitoba Bureau of Statistics (MBS), Manitoba Finance, Manitoba Education and Training and Manitoba Hydro assisted with the verification of macro-economic data utilized by the SECINC model to produce this labour market projection.

Table 7: Selected key Economic growth Indicators - 2018 to 2024

Per cent Change (%)

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Real GDP ($Millions) 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.6

Hourly Labour Income 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5

Real Hourly Labour Productivity 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6

Retail Sales 3.2 4.0 3.9 4.0 3.9 4.2 3.9

Personal Income 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.9 4.0 4.0


2.3 International, National and Provincial Labour Markets: Current Status

US Labour Market Projections Employment in the United States is projected to increase by 11.5 million to 167.6 million, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Projections: 2016-2026. Health care industries are expected to account for a large share of new jobs projected through 2026, as the aging population continues to drive demand for health care services.

Real GDP is projected to grow at an annual rate of 2 per cent from 2016 to 2026. Projected GDP growth is faster than the annual rate of 1.4 per cent from 2006 to 2016. Increased labor productivity will contribute to faster GDP growth.

The aging population is projected to result in a decline in the overall labor force participation rate over the 2016 to 2026 decade. The civilian labor force is projected to reach 169.7 million in 2026, growing at an annual rate of 0.6 per cent. As the labor force continues to get older, the overall labor force participation rate is projected to decrease to 61.0 per cent in 2026. This rate is down from 62.8 per cent in 2016 and from the peak of 67.1 per cent in 2000, prior to the 2007–09 recession.

As the baby boom generation ages, the share of workers age 55 and older--a cohort with a low labor force participation rate--is projected to grow to 24.8 per cent in 2026. This share is up from 22.4 per cent in 2016 and 16.8 per cent in 2006.

US Industry EmploymentTotal employment is projected to grow by 11.5 million jobs over the 2016–26 decade, reaching 167.6 million jobs in 2026. About 9 out of 10 new jobs are projected to be added in the service-providing sector from 2016 to 2026, resulting in more than 10.5 million new jobs, or 0.8 per cent annual growth. Employment in the health care and social assistance sector is projected to add nearly 4.0 million jobs by 2026, about one-third of all new jobs. The share of health care and social assistance employment is projected to increase

from 12.2 per cent in 2016 to 13.8 per cent in 2026, becoming the largest major sector in 2026.

The goods-producing sector is expected to increase by 219,000 jobs, growing at a rate of 0.1 per cent per year over the projections decade. Employment in construction and mining shows positive growth of 864,700 and 90,800 respectively. Manufacturing employment will decrease by 736,400 over the period, with fewer losses than the previous decade of 1,807,700.

2.3.1 National Labour Market

According to the Conference Board Spring outlook report, job creation in Canada surged at the end of last year, with a total of 146,000 new jobs created in the final two months of 2017. However, much of that gain was reversed at the beginning of the year, with 88,000 jobs lost in January. Labour market weakness was also evident in February, when only 15,000 new position were created. Job gains are expected to average just over 16,000 per month for the year as a whole, which, while not as strong as last year, is still a decent performance. We expect similar gains in 2019, as the economy continues to expand at a modest pace.

Employment growth will be held back by a decline in labour force participation. The labour force participation rate is now lower than it was at this time last year. And, at 65.5 per cent, the share of Canadians in the labour force during the first two months of the year was tied for the lowest level in nearly 20 years. While some of this decline is due to lower participation among those in the core working-age cohort (25 to 54) and those aged 20 to 24, it is also being driven by the retirement of baby boomers, as more and more of them are reaching prime retirement age and beginning to exit the labour market.

The combination of low labour force participation and strong employment growth has driven the unemployment rate to a record low, and this diminishing labour market slack has put upward pressure on wages. Wage gains were already strong heading into the year, and the first quarter


has seen similar gains. In February, average weekly wages were up 3.3 per cent. Overall, wages are expected to rise by better than 3.0 per cent this year. While much of this gain is due to tight labour markets, the minimum wage increase in Ontario is also a contributing factor. Strong wage gains will support continued robust growth in income despite the sharp slowdown in employment growth.

2.3.2 Manitoba’s Labour Market

The labour market has shown resilience in absorbing a record increase in population, while maintaining the second-lowest unemployment rate and the third-highest labour force participation rate in Canada.

Last year was an exceptional year for Manitoba’s labour market. Supply and demand are balanced, with employment and labour force growing at a steady 1 per cent annual pace since 1976.

The number of working age Manitobans surpassed 1,000,000 individuals for the first time. The number of jobs increased by 10,500, the largest gain in 15 years. An average of 644,100 workers were employed during the year, the highest ever.

Most of the employment growth was due to full-time jobs, which increased by 9,200 or 1.8 per cent. Part-time employment increased by 1,300 workers, or 1.1 per cent. Youth employment increased by 2,200 jobs, the first increase in three years and the largest increase in 11 years. Employment growth in the private sector was exceptionally strong and rose by 11,800 workers, or 2.5 per cent. This was the largest increase in private sector jobs in 15 years.

The strong growth in jobs reduced the number of unemployed by 4,600 workers, the largest annual reduction in the number of unemployed since 1998. It also cut the unemployment rate for 2017 to 5.4 per cent from 6.1 per cent in 2016.

The service sector added 9,700 jobs or 92 per cent of all the jobs in 2017 and the goods

producing sector added 800 jobs. The leading job creating industries were finance and insurance (3,500), retail trade (1,600), business, building and support services (1,200), construction (1,200), transportation and warehousing (1,100) and mining and oil extraction (1,000). Some of the gains were offset by losses in utilities (-1,000), forestry, logging and fishing (-500), real estate and leasing (-400) and agriculture (-300).

Private sector jobs grew 2.5 per cent from 2016 to 2017, and accounted for 75 per cent of employed positions. Employment in the public sector declined 0.8 per cent in the same time frame, accounting for 25 per cent of employed positions. Between 2016 and 2017, Manitoba’s labour force expanded by 0.9 per cent or 6,000 persons, making Manitoba fifth among the provinces.

Manitoba’s unemployment rate fell from 6.1 per cent in 2016 to 5.4 per cent in 2017, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points. Manitoba ranked second among the provinces and lower than Canada’s rate of 6.3 per cent.

Manitoba’s average participation rate decreased from 67.6 per cent in 2016 to 67.2 per cent in 2017, a difference of 0.4 percentage points. Manitoba ranked third among the provinces and above Canada’s rate of 65.8 per cent.

As the labour market tightened, compensation for employees improved in 2017. Average weekly earnings rose by 2.4 per cent in 2017 after gaining 1 per cent in 2016. Correspondingly, labour income increased by 4.7 per cent last year following a 0.8 per cent gain in 2016.

The Manitoba Finance Survey of Economic Forecasts determines that Manitoba’s employment in 2018 is forecast to grow by 0.7 per cent, ranking Manitoba sixth and tied with Nova Scotia. The unemployment rate is forecast at 5.4 per cent, ranking second lowest among the provinces. In 2019, employment is forecast to grow by 0.7 per cent, ranking Manitoba sixth. The unemployment rate is forecast at 5.4 per cent, tying Manitoba with Quebec for second lowest.


Table 8: Manitoba Labour Force Statistics (Working Age Population Age 15+) - 2013 to 2017

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Labour Force (000s) 661,500 662,100 674,100 674,900 680,900

Employment (000s) 625,800 626,500 636,200 633,600 644,100

Participation Rate (%) 68.6 67.8 68.3 67.6 67.2

Unemployment Rate (%) 5.4 5.4 5.6 6.1 5.4

2.4 PopulationManitoba’s Budget 2018 estimates Manitoba’s population at 1,338,109 persons in 2017, an annual increase of 19,994 persons or 1.5 per cent. This follows a record annual increase of 22,693 persons or 1.8 per cent in 2016. In the past decade, population increased by 1.2 per cent annually, 50 per cent higher than the long-term average rate of 0.8 per cent. In the last three years, Manitoba showed the fastest population growth among provinces, averaging 1.5 per cent annual growth, well above the national average of 1.1 per cent.

Most of this growth is due to a concerted effort by the Manitoba Provincial Nominee Program (MPNP) to use immigration to recruit for labour market and entrepreneurial needs. The MPNP is an economic immigration program designed to attract job-ready skilled workers and active investors. It has been an important part of the immigration system since 1998.

Recent enhancements will make it easier for international students with a Manitoba education to build careers and settle in the province. For skilled workers, priority will be given to candidates with close family connections in Manitoba and spouses who have the language proficiency, training and experience to quickly find in-demand jobs. Given a younger demographic arriving through immigration and the echo boom cohort maturing into the prime child rearing age, the number of births has increased to noteworthy levels. From a low of 13,764 births in 2001-02, the number of births has increased to a record 17,641 births in 2016-17.

As the proportion of younger people increase, the median age has declined, making Manitoba’s overall population age younger. The median population age peaked at 37.8 years from 2008 to 2013 and has since declined. In 2017, the median age fell to 37.4 years, the third lowest among provinces and below Canada (40.6 years).The demographic dynamics are reflected in the labour market.

Since 1990, Manitoba once again has the majority of the working age population in 20 to 29 year age cohort, surpassing the 50 to 59 year age cohort in 2016. The second-largest working age cohort is aged 30 to 39 years. In addition, Manitoba has a proportionally higher share of youth in the population compared to other provinces. As a result, the labour supply is expected to continue to increase over the medium term.

According to the projections, Manitoba’s total population will increase to 1,469,100 in 2024. This represents a total gain of 121,800 people or 9.0 per cent over 2017.

Between 2018 and 2024, Manitoba’s population is projected to increase by an average of 17,400 people annually, yielding an average annual growth rate of 1.2 per cent. The Manitoba Bureau of Statistics estimates that the average annual growth rate over the previous seven years, from 2011 to 2017, was 1.3 per cent. The natural increase is expected to add 47,100 people, while total net migration is expected to add 74,600 to the total population.


Thousands

1,480

1,440

1,400

1,360

1,320

1,280

Chart 8: Manitoba Population, Estimated and Projected - 2017 to 2024

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

1347.3

1469.1

It is projected that by 2024, most age groups will record increases in their population levels relative to the 2017 estimates. As illustrated by Chart 10, the 65-plus age group is expected to show the largest gain, increasing by 48,000 (23.3 per cent).

The 35 to 44 and 25 to 34 age groups are also projected to have strong gains, with increases of 16.7 per cent and 6.8 per cent respectively. No age group is anticipated to record population declines over the seven-year projection period.


Thousands120

80

40

0

Und

er 1

0-4

5-9

10-

14

15-

19

20-

24

25-

29

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34

35-

39

40-

44

45-

49

50-

54

55-

59

60-

64

65-

69

70-

74

75-

79

80-

84

85-

89

90+

Chart 9: Manitoba Age Distribution, Estimated and Projected - 2017 to 2024

2024 2017

Age group

Thousands

60

40

20

0

Chart 10: Manitoba Age Distribution Change2017 to 2024

Age0 to 14

Age15 to 24

Age25 to 34

Age35 to 44

Age45 to 54

Age55 to 64

Age65 +

+26

+13

+29

+1

+48

+2 +3


Chapter 3: SECINC Forecasting Model3.1 Model Summary of Methodology and Assumptions

The labour market outlook estimates in this report are based on SECINC’s occupational forecasting model, which includes macroeconomic, industrial and occupational models. These models are produced externally by senior economists at SECINC using international best practices in economic and labour market forecasting.

SECINC’s macroeconomic model incorporates certain major projects to capture current and upcoming economic activity and the subsequent labour market needs driven by these industry initiatives. For Manitoba’s custom projection, SECINC’s model used qualitative data collection, analysis and reporting by Manitoba government departments and Manitoba sector councils for proposed industry initiatives and current economic development activities.

Key economic indicators, including GDP, investment, consumer price index, income, employment, labour productivity, capital stock and housing starts are incorporated into the model. For Manitoba’s custom projection, GDP and employment growth assumptions supplied by SECINC are aligned, where feasible, with Manitoba Finance’s averaging of key private sector economic forecasts. Manitoba’s custom projection incorporates over 1,500 variables.

SECINC’s macroeconomic model incorporates 70 individual industry clusters. Economic and industry growth drive employment demand for each unique industry. Occupational employment demand is based on expected employment in the industries with these occupations.

Occupational labour supply and its components of change are primarily driven by demographic shifts and economic performance. For Manitoba’s custom projection, labour force participation rates were forecasted based on assumptions about Manitoba’s labour force supply, including detailed demographic modelling by age and sex.

The SECINC occupational model is based on the assumption that, in the long run, the labour force for an occupation will be determined by the demand for that occupation. In the short run, there will be deviations between the growth rate in supply and demand because of mobility restrictions, such as the time required to attract workers to the occupation either from other occupations or through the education and training system. Deviations also occur when attempting to get workers to move from a different geographic area.

A further restriction placed on the adjustment of the labour force for an occupation is that employers requiring the occupation must compete with each other and with other occupations to gain a share of the economy’s overall labour force. The latter variable is produced in the macroeconomic models. The ability to compete for additional supply of an occupation is driven by the occupation’s share of overall labour requirements in the economy. For a given occupation, the higher its requirements compared to other occupations, the larger its share of the economy’s overall labour force.

For further information about the methodology, please contact the Labour Market Information Unit at [email protected] or 204-945-8836.


APPENDICES

• Appendix 1: Components of Manitoba’s Future Labour Force, 2017 to 2024

• Appendix 2: Detailed Occupation Summary One-digit National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2016 level, Supply and Demand 2017 to 2024

• Appendix 3: Job Openings at Three-digit NOC level, Total 2018 to 2024

• Appendix 4: Job Openings at Four-digit NOC level, T otal 2018 to 2024


Appendix 1: Components of Manitoba’s Future Labour Force, 2017 to 2024

2017 2018 2020 2022 2024 2018 to 2024

Per cent Change

Demographics:

Population Level 1,347,300 1,364,000 1,398,500 1,433,700 1,469,100 121,800 9.0%

Natural Increase (births-deaths)

6,300 6,500 6,700 6,900 6,800 300 4.6%

Total net In Migration 10,200 10,300 10,600 10,800 10,800 500 4.9%

Immigration 13,100 13,100 13,100 13,100 13,100 - -

Net Interprovincial Migration

-4,500 -4,300 -4,000 -3,800 -3,800 -500 -11.6%

The Labour Market:

Source Population 1,013,300 1,025,100 1,049,200 1,074,700 1,101,600 76,500 7.5%

Labour Force 680,900 687,100 705,300 722,500 738,600 51,500 7.5%

Employment 644,100 650,600 668,700 684,900 699,800 49,200 7.6%

Unemployment 36,800 36,400 36,700 37,700 38,900 2,500 6.9%

Unemployment Rate (%)

5.4 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.3 -0.1

Participation Rate (%) 67.2 67.0 67.2 67.2 67.0 -0.2

Worker Demand versus Supply:

Demand for Workers 673,600 680,300 699,200 716,100 731,600 51,300 7.5%

Supply of Workers 680,900 687,100 705,300 722,500 738,600 51,500 7.5%

Demand Imbalance -8,800 -6,800 -6,100 -6,400 -7,000

Table continued on next page.


2017 2018 2020 2022 2024 2018 to 2024

Per cent Change

Source of Job Openings:

Expansion demand 11,100 6,700 9,100 8,100 7,100 400

Replacement demand 15,000 15,300 15,700 16,000 16,100 800 5.2%

Retirements 12,200 12,500 12,800 13,100 13,300 800 6.4%

Deaths 2,800 2,800 2,900 2,900 2,900 100 3.6%

Sources of Supply Change:

New Entrants 13,500 13,000 13,000 13,300 13,600 600 4.6%

Net In-mobility 7,500 8,500 12,200 11,000 10,300 1,800 21.2%

net In-migration 5,200 5,300 5,500 5,600 5,600 300 5.7%

net other mobility 2,200 3,200 6,700 5,400 4,700 1,500 46.9%


Appendix 2: Detailed Occupation Summary One-digit NOC Level, Supply and Demand, 2018 to 2024

NOC 0-9: ALL occupations

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024



Total 2018-2024

New Entrants 92,600

Net In-Mobility 75,800

Total Demand Change 168,700

Expansion Demand 58,000

Replacement Demand 110,700

NOC 0: Management occupations

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024



Total 2018-2024

New Entrants 0






NOC 1: Business, Finance and Administration occupations

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024



Total 2018-2024

New Entrants 13,300





NOC 2: Natural and Applied Sciences and Related occupations

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024



Total 2018-2024

New Entrants 6,100






NOC 3: Health occupations

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024



Total 2018-2024

New Entrants 10,000


Total demand Change 17,600



NOC 4: Occupations in Education, Law and Social, Community and Government Services

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024



Total 2018-2024

New Entrants 14,400






NOC 5: Occupations in Art, Culture, Recreation and Sport

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024



Total 2018-2024

New Entrants 2,400





NOC 6: Sales and Service occupations

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024



Total 2018-2024

New Entrants 23,600






NOC 7: Trades, Transport and Equipment operators and Related occupations

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024



Total 2018-2024

New Entrants 15,900





NOC 8: Natural Resources, Agriculture and Related Production occupations

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024



Total 2018-2024

New Entrants 2,300

Net In-Mobility 100


Expansion Demand -200



NOC 9: Occupations in Manufacturing and Utilities

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024



Total 2018-2024

New Entrants 4,600






Appendix 3: Job Openings at Three-digit NOC Level, Total 2018 to 2024

Three-digit NOC Codes and Titles Job openings

NOC 0: Management occupations#062 Retail and wholesale trade managers 4,700

#082 Managers in agriculture, horticulture and aquaculture 3,500

#001 Legislators and senior management 2,400

#071 Managers in construction and facility operation and maintenance 2,300

#011 Administrative services managers 1,700

#063 Managers in food service and accommodation 1,500

#012 Managers in financial and business services 1,400

#042 Managers in education and social and community services 1,400

#091 Managers in manufacturing and utilities 1,200

#031 Managers in health care 700

#021 Managers in engineering, architecture, science and information systems 600

#060 Corporate sales managers 600

#073 Managers in transportation 400

#051 Managers in art, culture, recreation and sport 300

#041 Managers in public administration 200

#043 Managers in public protection services 200

#065 Managers in customer and personal services, n.e.c. 200

#013 Managers in communication (except broadcasting) 100

#081 Managers in natural resources production and fishing 0

NOC 1: Business, Finance and Administration

#122 Administrative and regulatory occupations 4,700

#141 General office workers 4,300

#124 Office administrative assistants - general, legal and medical 3,300

#111 Auditors, accountants and investment professionals 2,700

#143 Financial, insurance and related administrative support workers 2,600

#152 Supply chain logistics, tracking and scheduling co-ordination occupations 2,200

#131 Finance, insurance and related business administrative occupations 2,100

#112 Human resources and business service professionals 1,500

#121 Administrative services supervisors 900

#151 Mail and message distribution occupations 800

#145 Library, correspondence and other clerks 600

#142 Office equipment operators 500

#125 Court reporters, transcriptionists, records management technicians and statistical officers

300




NOC 2: Natural and Applied Sciences and Related occupations#217 Computer and information systems professionals 1,600

#224 Technical occupations in electronics and electrical engineering 1,100

#213 Civil, mechanical, electrical and chemical engineers 1,000

#228 Technical occupations in computer and information systems 900

#223 Technical occupations in civil, mechanical and industrial engineering 600

#226 Other technical inspectors and regulatory officers 500

#225 Technical occupations in architecture, drafting, surveying, geomatics and meteorology

400

#212 Life science professionals 300

#214 Other engineers 300

#222 Technical occupations in life sciences 300

#215 Architects, urban planners and land surveyors 200

#221 Technical occupations in physical sciences 200

#227 Transportation officers and controllers 200

#211 Physical science professionals 100

#216 Mathematicians, statisticians and actuaries 100

NOC 3: Health occupations

#341 Assisting occupations in support of health services 6,000

#301 Professional occupations in nursing 5,600

#321 Medical technologists and technicians (except dental health) 1,500

#323 Other technical occupations in health care 1,500

#311 Physicians, dentists and veterinarians 1,400

#314 Therapy and assessment professionals 600

#313 Pharmacists, dietitians and nutritionists 500

#312 Optometrists, chiropractors and other health diagnosing and treating professionals 300

#322 Technical occupations in dental health care 300



NOC 4: Occupations in Education, Law and Social, Community and government Services#441 Home care providers and educational support occupations 6,000

#403 Secondary and elementary school teachers and educational counsellors 5,600

#421 Paraprofessional occupations in legal, social, community and education services 4,800

#415 Social and community service professionals 2,000

#416 Policy and program researchers, consultants and officers 1,600

#431 Occupations in front-line public protection services 1,200

#401 University professors and post-secondary assistants 800

#402 College and other vocational instructors 800

#411 Judges, lawyers and Quebec notaries 400

#442 Legal and public protection support occupations 400

NOC 5: Occupations in Art, Culture, Recreation and Sport

#513 Creative and performing artists 1,100

#524 Creative designers and craftspersons 1,000

#512 Writing, translating and related communications professionals 600

#525 Athletes, coaches, referees and related occupations 500

#522 Photographers, graphic arts technicians and technical and co-ordinating occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting and the performing arts

400

#521 Technical occupations in libraries, public archives, museums and art galleries 300

#523 Announcers and other performers, n.e.c. 200

#511 Librarians, archivists, conservators and curators 100



NOC 6: Sales and Service occupations#673 Cleaners 6,000

#642 Retail salespersons 4,600

#632 Chefs and cooks 2,400

#671 Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related support occupations 2,400

#655 Customer and information services representatives 2,000

#661 Cashiers 2,000

#651 Occupations in food and beverage service 1,900

#623 Insurance, real estate and financial sales occupations 1,800

#662 Other sales support and related occupations 1,500

#654 Security guards and related security service occupations 1,300

#634 Specialized occupations in personal and customer services 1,200

#641 Sales and account representatives - wholesale trade (non-technical) 1,100

#622 Technical sales specialists in wholesale trade and retail and wholesale buyers 1,000

#631 Service supervisors 1,000

#621 Retail sales supervisors 600

#674 Other service support and related occupations, n.e.c. 600

#633 Butchers and bakers 500

#652 Occupations in travel and accommodation 500

#656 Other occupations in personal service 500

#653 Tourism and amusement services occupations 300

#672 Support occupations in accommodation, travel and amusement services 300



NOC 7: Trades, Transport and Equipment operators and Related occupations#751 Motor vehicle and transit drivers 5,300

#732 Automotive service technicians 1,900

#723 Machining, metal forming, shaping and erecting trades 1,800

#731 Machinery and transportation equipment mechanics (except motor vehicle) 1,500

#745 Longshore workers and material handlers 1,500

#724 Electrical trades and electrical power line and telecommunications workers 1,300

#727 Carpenters and cabinetmakers 1,300

#720 Contractors and supervisors, industrial, electrical and construction trades and related workers

1,100

#761 Trades helpers and labourers 1,100

#730 Contractors and supervisors, maintenance trades and heavy equipment and transport operators

800

#729 Other construction trades 700

#744 Other installers, repairers and servicers 600

#752 Heavy equipment operators 600

#725 Plumbers, pipefitters and gas fitters 400

#738 Printing press operators and other trades and related occupations, n.e.c. 400

#728 Masonry and plastering trades 300

#753 Other transport equipment operators and related maintenance workers 300

#762 Public works and other labourers, n.e.c. 300

#733 Other mechanics and related repairers 200

#736 Train crew operating occupations 200

#737 Crane operators, drillers and blasters 100



NOC 8: Natural Resources, Agriculture and Related Production occupations#843 Agriculture and horticulture workers 900

#861 Harvesting, landscaping and natural resources labourers 900

#825 Contractors and supervisors, agriculture, horticulture and related operations and services

200

#826 Fishing vessel masters and fishermen/women 200

#821 Supervisors, logging and forestry 0

#822 Contractors and supervisors, mining, oil and gas 0

#823 Underground miners, oil and gas drillers and related occupations 0

#824 Logging machinery operators 0

#841 Mine service workers and operators in oil and gas drilling 0

#842 Logging and forestry workers 0

#844 Other workers in fishing and trapping and hunting occupations 0

NOC 9: Occupations in Manufacturing and Utilities

#961 Labourers in processing, manufacturing and utilities 1,900

#952 Mechanical, electrical and electronics assemblers 1,300

#946 Machine operators and related workers in food, beverage and associated products processing

1,000

#953 Other assembly and related occupations 800

#921 Supervisors, processing and manufacturing occupations 700

#941 Machine operators and related workers in mineral and metal products processing and manufacturing

700

#924 Utilities equipment operators and controllers 600

#942 Machine operators and related workers in chemical, plastic and rubber processing 400

#944 Machine operators and related workers in textile, fabric, fur and leather products processing and manufacturing

400

#922 Supervisors, assembly and fabrication 300

#947 Printing equipment operators and related occupations 300

#943 Machine operators and related workers in pulp and paper production and wood processing and manufacturing

200

#923 Central control and process operators in processing and manufacturing 100


Appendix 4: Job Openings and Labour Market Tightness at the 4-digit NOC level, 2018-2024

NOC Occupation Title

Skill

Lev

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Labour Market Tightness (Yellow = neutral; Red = tight; Grey = unavailable)

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2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Management Occupations#0011 Legislators 0 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 200

#0012 Senior government managers and officials 0 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 200

#0013Senior managers - financial, communications and other business services

0 1,300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 400 500

#0014

Senior managers - health, education, social and community services and membership organizations

0 1,200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 400 500

#0015Senior managers - trade, broadcasting and other services, n.e.c.

0 1,200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 400 500

#0016Senior managers - construction, transportation, production and utilities

0 1,800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 500 600

#0111 Financial managers 0 2,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 500 700

#0112 Human resources managers 0 1,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 500

#0113 Purchasing managers 0 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 200

#0114 Other administrative services managers 0 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#0121Insurance, real estate and financial brokerage managers

0 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#0122 Banking, credit and other investment managers 0 2,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 400 400

#0124Advertising, marketing and public relations managers

0 1,600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 200 400

#0125 Other business services managers 0 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 200

#0131 Telecommunication carriers managers 0 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#0132 Postal and courier services managers 0 100 0 0 0

#0211 Engineering managers 0 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 200

#0212 Architecture and science managers 0 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#0213Computer and information systems managers

0 1,200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#0311 Managers in health care 0 1,600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 500 700

#0411Government managers - health and social policy development and program administration

0 100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#0412Government managers - economic analysis, policy development and program administration

0 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 100

#0413Government managers - education policy development and program administration

0 0 0 0 0




Skill

Lev

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2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Management Occupations

#0414 Other managers in public administration 0 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#0421Administrators - post-secondary education and vocational training

0 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 200 200

#0422School principals and administrators of elementary and secondary education

0 1,300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 400 600

#0423Managers in social, community and correctional services

0 1,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 400 600

#0431 Commissioned police officers 0 0 0 0 0

#0432 Fire chiefs and senior fire-fighting officers 0 100 0 0 0

#0433 Commissioned officers of the Canadian Forces 0 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#0511 Library, archive, museum and art gallery managers 0 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#0512Managers - publishing, motion pictures, broadcasting and performing arts

0 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 100

#0513Recreation, sports and fitness program and service directors

0 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#0601 Corporate sales managers 0 1,900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 400 600

#0621 Retail and wholesale trade managers 0 13,700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1,300 3,400 4,700

#0631 Restaurant and food service managers 0 3,900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 500 600 1,100

#0632 Accommodation service managers 0 1,300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#0651Managers in customer and personal services, n.e.c.

0 900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#0711 Construction managers 0 3,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 600 800

#0712 Home building and renovation managers 0 1,900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 300 400 700

#0714 Facility operation and maintenance managers 0 2,200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 600 800

#0731 Managers in transportation 0 1,400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#0811Managers in natural resources production and fishing

0 100 0 0 0

#0821 Managers in agriculture 0 11,700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -600 4,000 3,400

#0822 Managers in horticulture 0 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#0823 Managers in aquaculture 0 0 0 0 0

#0911 Manufacturing managers 0 2,800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 300 800 1,100

#0912 Utilities managers 0 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100



Skill

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2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024


#1111 Financial auditors and accountants A 6,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 500 1,100 1,600

#1112 Financial and investment analysts A 1,00 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#1113Securities agents, investment dealers and brokers

A 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#1114 Other financial officers A 3,700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 600 800

#1121 Human resources professionals A 2,400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 400 600

#1122Professional occupations in business management consulting

A 1,400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#1123Professional occupations in advertising, marketing and public relations

A 2,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 300 500

#1211Supervisors, general office and administrative support workers

B 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 200

#1212 Supervisors, finance and insurance office workers B 800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 200

#1213Supervisors, library, correspondence and related information workers

B 100 0 0 0

#1214Supervisors, mail and message distribution occupations

B 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#1215Supervisors, supply chain, tracking and scheduling co-ordination occupations

B 1,400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#1221 Administrative officers B 7,300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 600 1,900 2,500

#1222 Executive assistants B 1,200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#1223 Human resources and recruitment officers B 800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#1224 Property administrators B 1,600 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 300 500 700

#1225 Purchasing agents and officers B 1,400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#1226 Conference and event planners B 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#1227 Court officers and justices of the peace B 100 0 0 0

#1228Employment insurance, immigration, border services and revenue officers

B 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#1241 Administrative assistants B 8,200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 700 1,700 2,400

#1242 Legal administrative assistants B 1,200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#1243 Medical administrative assistants B 1,800 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 300 400 600

#1251Court reporters, medical transcriptionists and related occupations

B 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#1252Health information management occupations

B 300 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 0 100 100

#1253 Records management technicians B 100 0 0 0




Skill

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2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024


#1254Statistical officers and related research support occupations

B 100 0 0 0

#1311 Accounting technicians and bookkeepers B 4,600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 300 1,100 1,500

#1312 Insurance adjusters and claims examiners B 1,200 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 400

#1313 Insurance underwriters B 700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 100

#1314 Assessors, valuators and appraisers B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#1315 Customs, ship and other brokers B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#1411 General office support workers C 9,700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1,000 2,000 2,900

#1414 Receptionists C 5,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 500 700 1,200

#1415 Personnel clerks C 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 100

#1416 Court clerks C 100 0 0 0

#1422 Data entry clerks C 1,600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 500

#1423Desktop publishing operators and related occupations

C 0 0 0 0

#1431 Accounting and related clerks C 6,200 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 500 1,300 1,800

#1432 Payroll clerks C 1,700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 300 500

#1434 Banking, insurance and other financial clerks C 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#1435 Collectors C 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#1451 Library assistants and clerks C 300 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#1452Correspondence, publication and regulatory clerks

C 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#1454 Survey interviewers and statistical clerks C 1,000 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#1511 Mail, postal and related workers C 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 200 300

#1512 Letter carriers C 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 200 300

#1513Couriers, messengers and door-to-door distributors

C 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#1521 Shippers and receivers C 4,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 300 600 900

#1522 Storekeepers and partspersons C 1,700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#1523 Production logistics co-ordinators C 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#1524 Purchasing and inventory control workers C 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#1525 Dispatchers C 1,300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#1526 Transportation route and crew schedulers C 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0



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#2111 Physicists and astronomers A 100 x 0 0 0

#2112 Chemists A 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#2113 Geoscientists and oceanographers A 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#2114 Meteorologists and climatologists A 100 0 0 0

#2115Other professional occupations in physical sciences

A 0 0 0 0

#2121 Biologists and related scientists A 700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 100

#2122 Forestry professionals A 0 0 0 0

#2123Agricultural representatives, consultants and specialists

A 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2131 Civil engineers A 1,800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#2132 Mechanical engineers A 1,400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#2133 Electrical and electronics engineers A 1,200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#2134 Chemical engineers A 100 0 0 0

#2141 Industrial and manufacturing engineers A 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2142 Metallurgical and materials engineers A 0 0 0 0

#2143 Mining engineers A 100 0 0 0

#2144 Geological engineers A 0 0 0 0

#2145 Petroleum engineers A 0 0 0 0

#2146 Aerospace engineers A 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#2147Computer engineers (except software engineers and designers)

A 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2148 Other professional engineers, n.e.c. A 100 0 0 0

#2151 Architects A 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2152 Landscape architects A 100 0 0 0

#2153 Urban and land use planners A 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 100

#2154 Land surveyors A 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 100

#2161 Mathematicians, statisticians and actuaries A 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 100

#2171 Information systems analysts and consultants A 3,300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 600 800

#2172 Database analysts and data administrators A 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2173 Software engineers and designers A 700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2174Computer programmers and interactive media developers

A 2,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 500




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#2175 Web designers and developers A 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 100

#2211 Chemical technologists and technicians B 700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2212Geological and mineral technologists and technicians

B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#2221 Biological technologists and technicians B 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 100

#2222 Agricultural and fish products inspectors B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 100

#2223 Forestry technologists and technicians B 100 0 0 0

#2224 Conservation and fishery officers B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#2225Landscape and horticulture technicians and specialists

B 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2231Civil engineering technologists and technicians

B 900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 100

#2232Mechanical engineering technologists and technicians

B 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2233Industrial engineering and manufacturing technologists and technicians

B 800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 200

#2234 Construction estimators B 800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 200 200

#2241Electrical and electronics engineering technologists and technicians

B 1,300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#2242Electronic service technicians (household and business equipment)

B 2,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 400 600

#2243Industrial instrument technicians and mechanics

B 100 0 0 0

#2244Aircraft instrument, electrical and avionics mechanics, technicians and inspectors

B 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2251Architectural technologists and technicians

B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#2252 Industrial designers B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 100

#2253 Drafting technologists and technicians B 1,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 200

#2254Land survey technologists and technicians

B 100 0 0 0

#2255Technical occupations in geomatics and meteorology

B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 100

#2261Non-destructive testers and inspection technicians

B 100 0 0 0

#2262 Engineering inspectors and regulatory officers B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#2263Inspectors in public and environmental health and occupational health and safety

B 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 200 300




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Natural and applied sciences and related occupations#2264 Construction inspectors B 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2271 Air pilots, flight engineers and flying instructors B 800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2272 Air traffic controllers and related occupations B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2273 Deck officers, water transport B 0 0 0 0

#2274 Engineer officers, water transport B 0 0 0 0

#2275Railway traffic controllers and marine traffic regulators

B 100 0 0 0

#2281 Computer network technicians B 2,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 300 500

#2282 User support technicians B 1,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 400

#2283 Information systems testing technicians B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0



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Health occupations

#3011 Nursing co-ordinators and supervisors A 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#3012Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses

A 15,200 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 2,600 2,900 5,400

#3111 Specialist physicians A 1,600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 300 600

#3112 General practitioners and family physicians A 2,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 300 300 600

#3113 Dentists A 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#3114 Veterinarians A 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 100

#3121 Optometrists A 200 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 0 0 100

#3122 Chiropractors A 300 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#3124 Allied primary health practitioners A 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 100

#3125Other professional occupations in health diagnosing and treating

A 100 0 0 0

#3131 Pharmacists A 1,300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 200 300

#3132 Dietitians and nutritionists A 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 100

#3141 Audiologists and speech-language pathologists A 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 100

#3142 Physiotherapists A 900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 300

#3143 Occupational therapists A 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#3144Other professional occupations in therapy and assessment

A 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 100

#3211 Medical laboratory technologists B 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 100 200 300

#3212Medical laboratory technicians and pathologists' assistants

B 900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#3213Animal health technologists and veterinary technicians

B 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 100

#3214Respiratory therapists, clinical perfusionists and cardiopulmonary technologists

B 300 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 100 100 100

#3215 Medical radiation technologists B 800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 300

#3216 Medical sonographers B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#3217Cardiology technologists and electrophysiological diagnostic technologists, n.e.c.

B 100 0 0 100

#3219Other medical technologists and technicians (except dental health)

B 1,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 200 300

#3221 Denturists B 100 0 0 0

#3222 Dental hygienists and dental therapists B 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 100

#3223Dental technologists, technicians and laboratory assistants

B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100




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Health occupations#3231 Opticians B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#3232 Practitioners of natural healing B 200 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#3233 Licensed practical nurses B 2,400 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 400 400 800

#3234 Paramedical occupations B 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#3236 Massage therapists B 1,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#3237Other technical occupations in therapy and assessment

B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 100

#3411 Dental assistants C 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#3413Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates

C 16,900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2,500 2,800 5,300

#3414Other assisting occupations in support of health services

C 1,700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 300 500



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#4011 University professors and lecturers A 2,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 600 700

#4012 Post-secondary teaching and research assistants A 2,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#4021 College and other vocational instructors A 2,700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 600 800

#4031 Secondary school teachers A 5,700 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 800 1,100 1,900

#4032 Elementary school and kindergarten teachers A 10,700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1,500 1,900 3,400

#4033 Educational counsellors A 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#4111 Judges A 100 0 0 0

#4112 Lawyers and Quebec notaries A 2,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#4151 Psychologists A 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 100

#4152 Social workers A 2,700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 400 400 800

#4153 Family, marriage and other related counsellors A 1,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#4154 Professional occupations in religion A 1,600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 400 500

#4155Probation and parole officers and related occupations

A 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 100

#4156 Employment counsellors A 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#4161Natural and applied science policy researchers, consultants and program officers

A 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 100

#4162Economists and economic policy researchers and analysts

A 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 100

#4163Business development officers and marketing researchers and consultants

A 1,400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#4164Social policy researchers, consultants and program officers

A 900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 200

#4165Health policy researchers, consultants and program officers

A 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#4166Education policy researchers, consultants and program officers

A 800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 200

#4167Recreation, sports and fitness policy researchers, consultants and program officers

A 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#4168 Program officers unique to government A 400 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#4169Other professional occupations in social science, n.e.c.

A 100 0 0 0

#4211 Paralegal and related occupations B 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#4212 Social and community service workers B 7,700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1,000 1,200 2,200




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#4214 Early childhood educators and assistants B 7,600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1,100 900 2,000

#4215 Instructors of persons with disabilities B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 100

#4216 Other instructors B 800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 200 200

#4217 Other religious occupations B 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#4311 Police officers (except commissioned) B 1,900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 400 600

#4312 Firefighters B 800 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 100 200 300

#4313 Non-commissioned ranks of the Canadian Forces B 1,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 100 300

#4411 Home child care providers C 3,900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 500 600 1,200

#4412Home support workers, housekeepers and related occupations

C 6,300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 800 1,200 2,100

#4413Elementary and secondary school teacher assistants

C 8,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1,200 1,600 2,800

#4421 Sheriffs and bailiffs C 100 0 0 0

#4422 Correctional service officers C 1,700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#4423By-law enforcement and other regulatory officers, n.e.c.

C 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100



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Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport#5111 Librarians A 100 0 0 0

#5112 Conservators and curators A 100 0 0 0

#5113 Archivists A 100 0 0 0

#5121 Authors and writers A 700 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 100 200 300

#5122 Editors A 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 0 100

#5123 Journalists A 300 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 100 0 100

#5125Translators, terminologists and interpreters

A 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 100

#5131Producers, directors, choreographers and related occupations

A 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#5132 Conductors, composers and arrangers A 100 0 0 0

#5133 Musicians and singers A 1,400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 200 500

#5134 Dancers A 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 100

#5135 Actors and comedians A 200 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 100 0 100

#5136 Painters, sculptors and other visual artists A 500 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 100 100 300

#5211 Library and public archive technicians B 500 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 100 100 200

#5212Technical occupations related to museums and art galleries

B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 0 100

#5221 Photographers B 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#5222 Film and video camera operators B 100 0 0 0

#5223 Graphic arts technicians B 100 0 0 0

#5224 Broadcast technicians B 100 0 0 0

#5225 Audio and video recording technicians B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#5226

Other technical and co-ordinating occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting and the performing arts

B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#5227

Support occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting, photography and the performing arts

B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#5231 Announcers and other broadcasters B 200 2 3 3 3 2 3 3 100 100 100

#5232 Other performers, n.e.c. B 100 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 0 0 100

#5241 Graphic designers and illustrators B 1,700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 300 500




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#5242 Interior designers and interior decorators B 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#5243Theatre, fashion, exhibit and other creative designers

B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#5244 Artisans and craftspersons B 500 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 100 200 200

#5245 Patternmakers - textile, leather and fur products B 0 0 0 0

#5251 Athletes B 0 0 0 0

#5252 Coaches B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 100

#5253 Sports officials and referees B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#5254Program leaders and instructors in recreation, sport and fitness

B 2,800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 300 200 400



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Sales and service occupations#6211 Retail sales supervisors B 2,400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 300 300 600

#6221 Technical sales specialists - wholesale trade B 2,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 500 700

#6222 Retail and wholesale buyers B 1,300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#6231 Insurance agents and brokers B 2,700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 300 500

#6232 Real estate agents and salespersons B 2,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 400 400 800

#6235 Financial sales representatives B 2,600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#6311 Food service supervisors B 1,700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 100 400

#6312 Executive housekeepers B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 100

#6313Accommodation, travel, tourism and related services supervisors

B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#6314Customer and information services supervisors

B 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#6315 Cleaning supervisors B 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#6316 Other services supervisors B 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 200

#6321 Chefs B 1,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 200 400

#6322 Cooks B 8,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1,100 900 2,000

#6331Butchers, meat cutters and fishmongers - retail and wholesale

B 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#6332 Bakers B 1,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 200 400

#6341 Hairstylists and barbers B 3,300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 300 400 700

#6342 Tailors, dressmakers, furriers and milliners B 600 2 3 3 2 2 3 2 100 200 100

#6343 Shoe repairers and shoemakers B 0 0 0 0

#6344Jewellers, jewellery and watch repairers and related occupations

B 100 0 0 0

#6345 Upholsterers B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 0

#6346 Funeral directors and embalmers B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 100

#6411Sales and account representatives - wholesale trade (non-technical)

C 3,700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 300 800 1,100

#6421 Retail salespersons C 21,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2,200 2,400 4,600

#6511 Maîtres d'hôtel and hosts/hostesses C 900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 0 200

#6512 Bartenders C 1,700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 100 300

#6513 Food and beverage servers C 8,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1,100 300 1,400




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Sales and service occupations#6521 Travel counsellors C 600 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#6522 Pursers and flight attendants C 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#6523 Airline ticket and service agents C 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#6524

Ground and water transport ticket agents, cargo service representatives and related clerks

C 100 0 0 0

#6525 Hotel front desk clerks C 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#6531 Tour and travel guides C 100 0 0 0

#6532 Outdoor sport and recreational guides C 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#6533 Casino occupations C 800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#6541Security guards and related security service occupations

C 4,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 500 800 1,300

#6551Customer services representatives - financial institutions

C 3,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 400 500

#6552Other customer and information services representatives

C 7,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 700 800 1,500

#6561 Image, social and other personal consultants C 100 0 0 0

#6562Estheticians, electrologists and related occupations

C 1,600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 100 300

#6563 Pet groomers and animal care workers C 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 100

#6564 Other personal service occupations C 0 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 0 0

#6611 Cashiers D 10,200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1,100 900 2,000

#6621 Service station attendants D 1,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 100 200

#6622 Store shelf stockers, clerks and order fillers D 5,600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 600 400 1,000

#6623 Other sales related occupations D 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 300

#6711Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related support occupations

D 12,800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1,800 600 2,400

#6721Support occupations in accommodation, travel and facilities set-up services

D 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 100

#6722Operators and attendants in amusement, recreation and sport

D 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#6731 Light duty cleaners D 9,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1,100 1,700 2,800

#6732 Specialized cleaners D 2,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 200 400

#6733 Janitors, caretakers and building superintendents D 8,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 1,900 2,900

#6741 Dry cleaning, laundry and related occupations D 1,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#6742 Other service support occupations, n.e.c. D 900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200



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#7201

Contractors and supervisors, machining, metal forming, shaping and erecting trades and related occupations

B 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#7202

Contractors and supervisors, electrical trades and telecommunications occupations

B 700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 200

#7203Contractors and supervisors, pipefitting trades

B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7204Contractors and supervisors, carpentry trades

B 800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 200

#7205

Contractors and supervisors, other construction trades, installers, repairers and servicers

B 1,700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 400 500

#7231Machinists and machining and tooling inspectors

B 1,200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#7232 Tool and die makers B 200 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 0 100 100

#7233 Sheet metal workers B 800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7234 Boilermakers B 100 0 0 0

#7235Structural metal and platework fabricators and fitters

B 100 0 0 0

#7236 Ironworkers B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7237 Welders and related machine operators B 4,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 400 700 1,100

#7241Electricians (except industrial and power system)

B 3,400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 500 500

#7242 Industrial electricians B 900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 200 200

#7243 Power system electricians B 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 100

#7244 Electrical power line and cable workers B 800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7245 Telecommunications line and cable workers B 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7246Telecommunications installation and repair workers

B 700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#7247Cable television service and maintenance technicians

B 0 0 0 0

#7251 Plumbers B 2,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 200 300

#7252Steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler system installers

B 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7253 Gas fitters B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#7271 Carpenters B 6,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 500 800 1,300

#7272 Cabinetmakers B 700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -100 100 0

#7281 Bricklayers B 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 100




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Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations#7282 Concrete finishers B 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#7283 Tilesetters B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#7284Plasterers, drywall installers and finishers and lathers

B 1,300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#7291 Roofers and shinglers B 900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7292 Glaziers B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#7293 Insulators B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#7294Painters and decorators (except interior decorators)

B 1,600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#7295 Floor covering installers B 700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7301Contractors and supervisors, mechanic trades

B 800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#7302Contractors and supervisors, heavy equipment operator crews

B 1,600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 300 300

#7303 Supervisors, printing and related occupations B 100 0 0 100

#7304 Supervisors, railway transport operations B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 100

#7305Supervisors, motor transport and other ground transit operators

B 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7311 Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics B 2,200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 400 600

#7312 Heavy-duty equipment mechanics B 2,300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#7313 Refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics B 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 200

#7314 Railway carmen/women B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 100

#7315 Aircraft mechanics and aircraft inspectors B 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 200 200

#7316 Machine fitters B 100 0 0 0

#7318 Elevator constructors and mechanics B 100 0 0 0

#7321Automotive service technicians, truck and bus mechanics and mechanical repairers

B 6,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 500 1,100 1,600

#7322 Motor vehicle body repairers B 1,400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#7331 Oil and solid fuel heating mechanics B 0 0 0 0

#7332 Appliance servicers and repairers B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7333 Electrical mechanics B 200 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#7334Motorcycle, all-terrain vehicle and other related mechanics

B 100 0 0 0

#7335Other small engine and small equipment repairers

B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#7361 Railway and yard locomotive engineers B 400 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100




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#7362 Railway conductors and brakemen/women B 300 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#7371 Crane operators B 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7372Drillers and blasters - surface mining, quarrying and construction

B 100 0 0 0

#7373 Water well drillers B 0 0 0 0

#7381 Printing press operators B 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#7384 Other trades and related occupations, n.e.c. B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7441Residential and commercial installers and servicers

C 1,900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 300

#7442 Waterworks and gas maintenance workers C 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#7444 Pest controllers and fumigators C 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#7445 Other repairers and servicers C 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7451 Longshore workers C 0 0 0 0

#7452 Material handlers C 5,700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 500 900 1,400

#7511 Transport truck drivers C 15,400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1,000 3,000 3,100

#7512Bus drivers, subway operators and other transit operators

C 3,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 800 1,000

#7513 Taxi and limousine drivers and chauffeurs C 2,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 400 500

#7514 Delivery and courier service drivers C 3,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 500 800

#7521 Heavy equipment operators (except crane) C 3,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -100 600 400

#7522Public works maintenance equipment operators and related workers

C 700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#7531 Railway yard and track maintenance workers C 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#7532 Water transport deck and engine room crew C 0 0 0 0

#7533Boat and cable ferry operators and related occupations

C 0 0 0 0

#7534 Air transport ramp attendants C 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 100

#7535Other automotive mechanical installers and servicers

C 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 0 100

#7611 Construction trades helpers and labourers D 7,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 300 700 1,000

#7612 Other trades helpers and labourers D 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 100

#7621 Public works and maintenance labourers D 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#7622 Railway and motor transport labourers D 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 00 100 200



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Natural resources, agriculture and related occupations

#8211 Supervisors, logging and forestry B 0 0 0 0

#8221 Supervisors, mining and quarrying B 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -100 100 0

#8222Contractors and supervisors, oil and gas drilling and services

B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#8231 Underground production and development miners B 1,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#8232Oil and gas well drillers, servicers, testers and related workers

B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -200 200 0

#8241 Logging machinery operators B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 -100 0

#8252

Agricultural service contractors, farm supervisors and specialized livestock workers

B 700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#8255Contractors and supervisors, landscaping, grounds maintenance and horticulture services

B 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 100

#8261 Fishing masters and officers B 0 0 0 0

#8262 Fishermen/women B 400 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 100 100 200

#8411Underground mine service and support workers

C 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#8412Oil and gas well drilling and related workers and services operators

C 100 0 0 0

#8421 Chain saw and skidder operators C 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#8422 Silviculture and forestry workers C 0 0 0 0

#8431 General farm workers C 7,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -300 1,200 900

#8432 Nursery and greenhouse workers C 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#8441 Fishing vessel deckhands C 0 0 0 0

#8442 Trappers and hunters C 0 0 0 0

#8611 Harvesting labourers D 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#8612Landscaping and grounds maintenance labourers

D 3,300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 400 500 900

#8613 Aquaculture and marine harvest labourers D 0 0 0 0

#8614 Mine labourers D 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -100 100 0

#8615Oil and gas drilling, servicing and related labourers

D 100 0 0 0

#8616 Logging and forestry labourers D 0 0 0 0



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#9211 Supervisors, mineral and metal processing B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 0 100

#9212Supervisors, petroleum, gas and chemical processing and utilities

B 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 200 200

#9213Supervisors, food, beverage and associated products processing

B 700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 200

#9214Supervisors, plastic and rubber products manufacturing

B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 100

#9215 Supervisors, forest products processing B 100 0 0 100

#9217Supervisors, textile, fabric, fur and leather products processing and manufacturing

B 100 0 0 0

#9221 Supervisors, motor vehicle assembling B 100 0 0 0

#9222 Supervisors, electronics manufacturing B 100 0 0 0

#9223 Supervisors, electrical products manufacturing B 100 0 0 0

#9224 Supervisors, furniture and fixtures manufacturing B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 0

#9226Supervisors, other mechanical and metal products manufacturing

B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 0

#9227Supervisors, other products manufacturing and assembly

B 100 0 0 0

#9231Central control and process operators, mineral and metal processing

B 100 0 0 0

#9232Petroleum, gas and chemical process operators

B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#9235Pulping, papermaking and coating control operators

B 0 0 0 0

#9241 Power engineers and power systems operators B 1,300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#9243 Water and waste treatment plant operators B 700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#9411Machine operators, mineral and metal processing

C 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9412 Foundry workers C 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9413Glass forming and finishing machine operators and glass cutters

C 100 0 0 0

#9414 Concrete, clay and stone forming operators C 100 0 0 0

#9415Inspectors and testers, mineral and metal processing

C 100 0 0 0

#9416Metalworking and forging machine operators

C 900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#9417 Machining tool operators C 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9418 Other metal products machine operators C 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9421 Chemical plant machine operators C 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100




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#9422 Plastics processing machine operators C 700 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 200 100 300

#9423Rubber processing machine operators and related workers

C 200 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 100

#9431 Sawmill machine operators C 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#9432 Pulp mill machine operators C 0 0 0 0

#9433Papermaking and finishing machine operators

C 0 0 0 0

#9434 Other wood processing machine operators C 100 0 0 0

#9435 Paper converting machine operators C 200 3 3 3 2 2 3 2 100 0 100

#9436Lumber graders and other wood processing inspectors and graders

C 100 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0 0 0

#9437 Woodworking machine operators C 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -100 100 0

#9441Textile fibre and yarn, hide and pelt processing machine operators and workers

C 100 0 0 0

#9442Weavers, knitters and other fabric making occupations

C 100 0 0 0

#9445 Fabric, fur and leather cutters C 100 0 0 0

#9446 Industrial sewing machine operators C 1,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#9447Inspectors and graders, textile, fabric, fur and leather products manufacturing

C 100 0 0 0

#9461Process control and machine operators, food, beverage and associated products processing

C 1,400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 400

#9462Industrial butchers and meat cutters, poultry preparers and related workers

C 2,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 300 500

#9463 Fish and seafood plant workers C 0 0 0 0

#9465Testers and graders, food, beverage and associated products processing

C 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9471 Plateless printing equipment operators C 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9472Camera, platemaking and other prepress occupations

C 100 0 0 0

#9473 Binding and finishing machine operators C 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 100

#9474 Photographic and film processors C 100 0 0 0

#9521Aircraft assemblers and aircraft assembly inspectors

C 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 200

#9522Motor vehicle assemblers, inspectors and testers

C 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9523Electronics assemblers, fabricators, inspectors and testers

C 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100




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#9524

Assemblers and inspectors, electrical appliance, apparatus and equipment manufacturing

C 400 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 100 100 200

#9525Assemblers, fabricators and inspectors, industrial electrical motors and transformers

C 200 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 0 0 100

#9526 Mechanical assemblers and inspectors C 1900 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 200 400 700

#9527Machine operators and inspectors, electrical apparatus manufacturing

C 100 0 0 0

#9531 Boat assemblers and inspectors C 0 0 0 0

#9532Furniture and fixture assemblers and inspectors

C 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -200 100 0

#9533Other wood products assemblers and inspectors

C 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -100 100 0

#9534 Furniture finishers and refinishers C 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#9535Plastic products assemblers, finishers and inspectors

C 500 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#9536Industrial painters, coaters and metal finishing process operators

C 1,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#9537Other products assemblers, finishers and inspectors

C 1,300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 100

#9611 Labourers in mineral and metal processing D 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9612 Labourers in metal fabrication D 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9613Labourers in chemical products processing and utilities

D 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9614 Labourers in wood, pulp and paper processing D 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 100

#9615Labourers in rubber and plastic products manufacturing

D 200 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 100

#9616 Labourers in textile processing D 0 0 0 0

#9617Labourers in food, beverage and associated products processing

D 3,700 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 300 600 900

#9618 Labourers in fish and seafood processing D 100 0 0 0

#9619Other labourers in processing, manufacturing and utilities

D 2,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 400 600


Key Data SourcesA variety of qualitative and quantitative data and information sources were used, including:

• Stokes Economic Consulting (SECINC)

• International Monetary Fund (IMF)

• Manitoba Bureau of Statistics

• Manitoba Finance - Budget 2016

• Statistics Canada

• National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2011

For more information:

Labour Market Information Unit Manitoba Jobs and the EconomyPhone: 204-945-8836Fax: 204-945-1354E-mail: [email protected]

manitoba.ca/lmi

Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2018 to 2024

Documents

Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2018-2024 · 2018-10-26 · Projection System (COPS) and labour market forecasts prepared for particular industries by sector councils,