Global Climate Change

Solutions

Uncertainity

Will certainty ever be possible using even the best of mathematical tools that can be imagined. Questions of certainty at some points - perhaps at the very beginning - become questions not of methodology but of philosophy. Go find a quantum physicist at your local hang out and ask her some time. Go ahead.www.zimbio.com/environmental+issues+and+greenwashing/articles/72/Global+Warming+CBO+Uncertainty+RULES

The One Percent Doctrine

In November, 2001, Vice-President Dick Cheney announced that if there was "If there's a 1% chance that Pakistani scientists are helping al-Qaedea build or develop a nuclear weapon, we have to treat it as a certainty in terms of our response. It's not about our analysis ... It's about our response.”

How do we deal with low-probability, high-impact events?

Henson, p.279 (2008)

The Climate Change Challenge

Three types of goals:

• Stabilizing emissions

• Stabilizing concentrations

• Stabilizing temperatures

The Predicament

Selecting a Target

1996 and 2005- European Union and UK Met Office

2 deg C (3.6 deg F) above pre-industrial levels or about 1.2 deg C (2.1 deg F) above today’s global average temperature

The Predicament

2 deg C – Is this possible?

Global emission cuts of at least 10% within 10 to 20 years

The Predicament

The wedge strategy

The Predicament

Cumulative per capita carbon dioxide emissions

Hansen, Fig. 24, 2009

Annual carbon dioxide growth as observed through 2008, in IPCC (2001) scenarios and in the alternative scenario of Hansen et al. (2000).

Hansen, Fig. 16, 2009

http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Storms/

Atmospheric carbon dioxide simulated with a carbon cycle model under the assumption that coal emissions are phased out over the periods 2010-2030. Future carbon dioxide levels depend on the size of oil and gas reserves and on other potential actions.Hansen, Fig. 23, 2009

Fossil fuel emissions by fuel type for the world and Japan since 1900.

(Data sources are Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and British Petroleum.)

Hansen, Fig. 25, 2009

Did Kyoto make any difference?

Current and cumulative fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions.

Hansen, Fig. 27, 2009

Fossil fuel emissions by type for the United States and China.

(Data sources are Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and British petroleum.)

Hansen, Fig. 28, 2009

By 2009, US energy consumption falls well below government and industry projections. Lovin’s projection of replacement of soft technologies replacement of traditional energy was also inaccurate.

Hansen, 2009 Fig. 2

Tackling Climate Change in the U.S.

Potential Carbons Emissions Reductions from Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy by 2030

American Solar Energy Society

January 2007

www.ases.org/climatechange

www.ases.org/climatechange

www.ases.org/climatechange

Figure 1. Triangle of U.S. fossil fuel carbon reductions needed by 2030 for a 60% to 80% reduction from today’s levels by 2050.

mill

ion

met

ric to

ns

Potential carbon reductions in 2030 from energy efficiency and renewable technologies and paths to achieve reductions of 60% and 80%

43% renewables

57% energy efficiency

www.ases.org/climatechange

The results strongly suggest that energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies have the potential to provide most, if not all, of the U.S. carbon emissions reductions that will be needed to help limit the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide to 450 ppm.

www.ases.org/climatechange

Houston, we have a solution!

“How can I live on this piece of land without spoiling it?

Aldo Leopold

In 1933 he was appointed Professor of Game Management in the Agricultural Economics Department at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, the first such professorship of wildlife management.

He emphasized biodiversity and ecology and was a founder of the science of wildlife management. in 1935 he helped found the Wilderness Society, dedicated to expanding and protecting the nation's wilderness areas. He regarded the society as "one of the focal points of a new attitude—an intelligent humility toward man's place in nature.”

Leopold on his land ethic:

"The land ethic simply enlarges the boundaries of the community to include soils, waters, plants, and animals, or collectively: the land." "This sounds simple: do we not already sing our love for and obligation to the land of the free and the home of the brave? Yes, but just what and whom do we love?

Certainly not the soil, which we are sending helter-skelter down river. Certainly not the waters, which we assume have no function except to turn turbines, float barges, and carry off sewage.

Certainly not the plants, of which we exterminate whole communities without batting an eye. Certainly not the animals, of which we have already extirpated many of the largest and most beautiful species.

A land ethic of course cannot prevent the alteration, management, and use of these ‘resources,’ but it does affirm their right to continued existence, and, at least in spots, their continued existence in a natural state.

In short, a land ethic changes the role of Homo sapiens from conqueror of the land-community to plain member and citizen of it. It implies respect for his fellow-members, and also respect for the community as such."

Assessment of Target COAssessment of Target CO22

PhenomenonTargetPhenomenonTarget COCO22 ((ppmppm))

1. Arctic Sea Ice1. Arctic Sea Ice 300300--325325

2. Ice Sheets/Sea Level2. Ice Sheets/Sea Level 300300--350350

3. Shifting Climatic Zones3. Shifting Climatic Zones 300300--350350

4. Alpine Water Supplies4. Alpine Water Supplies 300300--350350

5. Avoid Ocean Acidification5. Avoid Ocean Acidification 300300--350350

Initial Target COInitial Target CO22 = 350* = 350* ppmppm*assumes CH*assumes CH44, O, O33, Black Soot decrease, Black Soot decrease

Initial Target COInitial Target CO22: 350 : 350 ppmppm

Technically Feasible Technically Feasible (but not if business(but not if business--asas--usual continues)usual continues)

Quick Coal PhaseQuick Coal Phase--Out CriticalOut Critical(long lifetime of atmospheric CO(long lifetime of atmospheric CO22))

(must halt construction of any new coal (must halt construction of any new coal plants that do not capture & store COplants that do not capture & store CO22))

““Free WillFree Will”” AlternativeAlternative

1. Phase Out Coal CO1. Phase Out Coal CO22 EmissionsEmissions-- by 2025/2030 developed/developing countriesby 2025/2030 developed/developing countries

2. Rising Carbon Price2. Rising Carbon Price-- discourages unconventional fossil fuels & extraction discourages unconventional fossil fuels & extraction of every last drop of oil (Arctic, etc.)of every last drop of oil (Arctic, etc.)

3. Soil & Biosphere CO3. Soil & Biosphere CO22 SequestrationSequestration-- improved farming & forestry practicesimproved farming & forestry practices

4. Reduce non4. Reduce non--COCO22ForcingsForcings-- reduce CHreduce CH44, O, O33, trace gases, black soot, trace gases, black soot

The ChallengeThe Challenge

We can avoid destroying creation! We can avoid destroying creation!

(+cleaner planet, + good jobs!)(+cleaner planet, + good jobs!)

We have to figure out how to live We have to figure out how to live without fossil fuels somedaywithout fossil fuels someday……

Why not now?Why not now?

WhatWhat’’s the Solution?*s the Solution?*

(Not Carbon Cap or % Target!!!)(Not Carbon Cap or % Target!!!)

1. Coal Emissions Phase1. Coal Emissions Phase--OutOutUK, US, Germany Should LeadUK, US, Germany Should Lead

2. Carbon Price & 100% Dividend2. Carbon Price & 100% Dividend

**Just my opinions, of courseJust my opinions, of course

Carbon Tax & 100% DividendCarbon Tax & 100% Dividend

1. Tax Large & Growing (but get it in place!)1. Tax Large & Growing (but get it in place!)-- tap efficiency potential & life style choicestap efficiency potential & life style choices

2. Entire Tax Returned2. Entire Tax Returned-- equal monthly deposits in bank accountsequal monthly deposits in bank accounts

3. Limited Government Role3. Limited Government Role-- keep hands off money!keep hands off money!-- eliminate fossil subsidieseliminate fossil subsidies-- let marketplace choose winnerslet marketplace choose winners-- change profit motivation of utilitieschange profit motivation of utilities-- watch U.S. modernize & emissions fall!watch U.S. modernize & emissions fall!

Intergenerational ConflictIntergenerational Conflict

Intergenerational inequity Intergenerational inequity and injustice is the and injustice is the result, affecting the young and unborn.result, affecting the young and unborn.

‘‘Did not knowDid not know’’ defense defense of prior generations no of prior generations no longer viable.longer viable.

Ethical and legal liability Ethical and legal liability questions raised by questions raised by actions that deceived the public.actions that deceived the public.

Continued failure Continued failure of political process (not even of political process (not even available to young and unborn) may cause available to young and unborn) may cause increasing public protests.increasing public protests.

Jim Hansen Web SiteJim Hansen Web Site

www.columbia.edu/~jeh1www.columbia.edu/~jeh1includesincludes

Target Atmospheric COTarget Atmospheric CO22: Where Should : Where Should Humanity Aim?Humanity Aim?

Global Warming Twenty Years Later: Tipping Global Warming Twenty Years Later: Tipping Points NearPoints Near

http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Storms/

Fossil fuel and net land-use emissions (1751-2008). Hansen, Fig. 22, 2009

Climate forcings due to greenhouse gas and surface reflectivity changes. Multiplication for the sum of these two forcings by 0.75 degree Celsius per watt yields the calculated temperature. The estimate for observed temperature is Antarctic temperature divided by two.

Hansen et al., 2008

Earth's energy imbalance (currently about 0.5 watts/sq meter) is deposited almost entirely into the ocean, where it contributes to iceberg and ice shelf melting. After ice sheet disintegration begins, a substantial fraction of the energy imbalance may go into melting ice (about a 5 cm/yr rise or 5 m per century)

Hansen, 2009 Fig. 7

Deep ocean temperature during the Cenozoic era. CO2varies from 170 ppm to about 1500 ppm during this time.

from Zachos et al., 2001

Earth is the "Goldilocks" planet, not too hot, not too cold, just right for life to exist.

Hansen, Fig. 29, 2009

Fossil fuel emissions and the fraction that appears in the atmosphere. China’s annual emissions now exceed those of the US but the US is responsible for about 3x more human-made CO2 in the air today than is China.

Hansen, Fig. 16, 2009

(Emissions data from http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/meth_reg.html

www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Emissions/

• Direct economic losses of global disasters have increased in recent decades.

• The increases in disaster losses primarily result from storms and floods.

• Adaptation to extreme weather events should play a central rolein reducing societal vulnerabilities to climate and climate change.

• Mitigation of GHG emissions should also play a central role in response to anthropogenic climate change, though it does not have an effect for several decades on the hazard risk.

“Climate Change and Disaster Losses:Understanding and Attributing Trends and Projections”

May 2006Munich Re and the U.S. National Science Foundation

http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/sparc/research/projects/extreme_events/munich_workshop/executive_summary.pdf