GFD WATER GFD ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH „CLIMATE CHANGE – IMPACTS ON HYDROLOGY AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT “ Scientific Study on the Impacts of the Decreasing

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GFD ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH

„CLIMATE CHANGE –

IMPACTS ON HYDROLOGY AND

REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT “

Scientific Study on the Impacts of the Decreasing Water Level of Lake

Neusiedl, Austria

International Congress “Global Climate Change and Environmental Effects”October 18-20, Konya, Turkey

Monika SchönerkleeDeputy Head of Water DepartmentAustrian Research Centers GmbH – ARC (www.arcs.ac.at) 2444 Seibersdorf, [email protected]

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CONTENT OF PRESENTATION Background and objectives Climate change forecasts und lake water level scenarios for the Lake Neusiedl

Occurrence probabilities Water surface areas and water depths

Types of use and limitations for the lake water level scenarios Tourism Retail trade Fishery Etc.

Effects on agriculture Economic analysis (NUTS 3 Region Nordburgenland) of the selected scenarios

Regional effects on gross value added Regional effects on employment situation

Summary, conclusion and perspectives

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Background

Lake Neusiedl, is situated in the border region between Austria and Hungary, between the foothills of the Eastern Alps and the Pannonian plain

Endorheic lake with a total area of about 320 km² of which 180 km² are covered by reed, and with an average depth of 1.2 m

This area is counted among the driest areas of Austria with an annual precipitation of 500-700 mm

Lake area has been declared as UNESCO World Cultural Heritage Area

Tourism (especially sailing) is an important regional economic factor

Climate change forecasts for the region expect an increase of the annual average temperatures with a probable decrease of yearly precipitation

Lake Neusiedl

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Lake hydrology and study objectives

Water balance of the Lake Neusiedl is dominated by precipitation (500-700 mm/a) and evapotranspiration (no relevant inflow and outflow)

Fluctuations in seasonal distribution of precipitation Significant deficits in precipitation and the characteristic

high evapotranspiration in the last years caused low lake water levels

Climate change forecasts expect more frequent dry periods which could lead to a contiuous drying of the lake

Observed low lake levels showed first negative effects on tourism (especially sailing) which is an important regional economic factor.

Objectives of the study: Development of realistic scenarios Analyse the (negative) impacts of low lake water levels on

tourism and different economic sectors of the Lake Neusiedl region

Water Level Hydrograph of Lake Neusiedl (since 1965)

115,00

115,10

115,20

115,30

115,40

115,50

115,60

115,70

115,80

115,90

116,00

116,10

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1966

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1997

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2003

2004

2005

2006

Lak

e w

ater

leve

l [m

a.s

.l.]

Minimum levelSeptember 2003:115,05 m a.s.l.

Maximum levelMay 1996:115,96 m a.s.l.

Mean level115,47 m a.s.l.

Average water level: ~ 115,50 m a.s.l.Maximum water level: ~ 116,00 m a.s.l.Minimum water level: 115,05 m a.s.l.

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2003:2003:311 mm311 mm

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Climate change forecasts for the Lake Neusiedl region

Source: BOKU Study „Auswirkungen einer Klimaänderung auf den Wasserhaushalt des Neusiedler Sees“ (2005)

Change of annual precipitation:

Forecasts show higher uncertainties

Bandwidth of -20 % to +20 % (-5 % to 0 % most probable)

Increase of annual average temperature:

2020 (period 2010-2030): +1,9°C

2040 (period 2030-2050): +2,5°C

Warming is most significant during winter and summer

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Selection of 4 relevant lake water levels scenarios

Further use-specific analysis and assessment for the two (three) low lake water level scenarios for which significant impacts on various tourism and economic sectors can be expected

115.50 m a.s.l. Corresponds to the average lake water level of 115.47 m a.s.l. of the time period 1965-2005

115.20 m a.s.l. Feasible starting level of artificially supplying water to the lake

115.00 m a.s.l. Level which is slightly below the minimum lake water level of the dry year 2003 (115.06 m a.s.l.)

114.70 m a.s.l. Extreme event under the current climate conditions (period 1991-2004). Recurring event in case of climate change conditions (climate change scenarios 2020 and 2040)

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Climate scenarios – Occurence probabilities and average durations below the respective levels

SzenarioClimate change (compared to period

1961-90)

Lake water level

115.20 m a.s.l.

Lake water level

115.00 m a.s.l.

Lake water level

114.70 m a.s.l.

Occurence probability

Average duration below

level



level



level

Current situation(1991-2004)

T: + 0.7°C

Prec: ± 0 % 12.2 years 138 days 71.4 years 78 days > 500 years -

Climate scenario 2020(Period 2010-2030)

T: + 1.9°C

Prec.: - 5% 2.6 years 191 days 6.9 years 213 days 22.7 years 191 days

Climate scenario 2040(Period 2030-2050)

T: + 2,5°C

Prec.: - 5% 1.8 years 223 days 3.5 years 190 days 12.5 years 196 days

Source: BOKU Studie „Auswirkungen einer Klimaänderung auf den Wasserhaushalt des Neusiedler Sees“ (2005)

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GIS Analysis: Water surface areas for the selected lake water levels

115.50 m a.s.l. 115.20 m a.s.l.

115.00 m a.s.l. 114.70 m a.s.l.

Use of digital terrain model for the lake and the surrounding area:

115.50 m a.s.l.: nearly the entire reed belt is impounded

115.20 m a.s.l : only about 50% of the reed belt are impounded

114.70 m a.s.l :nearly the entire reed belt area dries up

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Distribution of water depths for the selected lake water levels

Lake water levels 115.00 m a.s.l. and 114.70 m a.s.l.:

Significant increase of extremely shallow lake areas (< 1.2 m) mainly for the north and north-western part of the lake

In these areas higher water depths are only reached in more than 100 meters distance from the shore.

(own GIS analysis based on Bacsatyai et al., 1997)

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Distribution of water depths for the selected lake water levels (Detail view of the northern lake shore Neusiedl)

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Distribution of water depths for the selected lake water levels (Detail view of the eastern lake shore Podersdorf)

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Sector-wise analysis of limitations, estimation of turnover decrease

Determination of turnover decrease is based on the following approach: Analysis of use limitations for different lake water levels (mapping of water depth distribution and lake water

surface) Interviews and expert opinions Analysis of two existing tourist surveys (questionnaires) (T-MONA, 2005) Analysis of tourism statistics (over-night stays, yearly distribution, communities etc.) (WKO, 2006, Burgenländische

Statistiken: Tourismus, 2005) Consideration of lake water level hydrograph and occurrence probability of the selected scenarios Determination of bandwidths of turnover decrease which are appropriate to consider a number of uncertainty

factors Calculation of agricultural decrease is based on climate forecasts only (not on the lake water levels)

The selected band-widths include: Validity of climate change forecasts and natural climate variability Definite time and duration of low lake water levels, its occurrence probabilities and consequence effects in the

following years Different tourism characteristics of the lake municipalities and the general tourist behaviour.

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Summer tourism (Bathing)Extremely shallow water depths in the shore areas in general, respectively in the bathing areas

Swimming is only possible with greater distance from the lake shore (especially for the lake water levels 115.0 m a.s.l. and 114.7m a.s.l.

Bathing areas on the northern lake shore (Neusiedl, Weiden, Breitenbrunn) are most signifcantly affected

Water sports (Sailing, surfing etc.)A minimum water depth of 1.2-1.3 m is required for sailing conditions – with regard to the currently used boats on the lake (considering local wind, waves and mud transport conditions)

Water depths < 1m – sailing is limited to only a few boat categories

Liners/ferry boatsCan be operated without problems for lake water levels above 115.2 m a.s.l. At lake lavels of about 115.0 m a.s.l. only limited use For lake levels below 114.7 m a.s.l. not possible any more (using the current type of ships)

Lake Neusiedl area – Types of use and limitations due to low lake levels

The number of guests visiting this region will be a result of its attractiveness for different touristic uses:

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Bycicle tourism, cultural tourism and retail trade Due to the low lake water levels and the decline of over-night stays as

well as day visitors a decrase of retail trade activites is to be expected.

Fishery Extremely low water levels will cause a drying up of the reed belt as

important living space for young fish – negative influence on fishery Strong dependence on funding measures (Besatzmaßnahmen) Economic interrelation with local gastronomy

Reed culture Intermittent lowering of the water level will cause only minor economic

effects on this sector

Lake Neusiedl area – Types of use and limitations due to low lake levels

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Tourism – Guest surveys and guest motivation

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Rundreise

Privat&Berufl.

Staedte

Wanderung

Verwandte

Kur

Radfahren

Kultur

Event

Aktiv

Bade

Wellness

Erholung

Url

au

bsart

in %

Region Neusiedlersee gesamt - Nächtigungen pro Monat 2000 - 2005

-

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

250.000

300.000

350.000

400.000

Jän Feb Mär Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Dez

Nä

ch

tig

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ge

n p

ro M

on

at

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Percentage of overnight stays during summer > 88 % (clear peak of overnight stays in August)

Motivation of guests focusses on relaxing, bathing and water sports (according to guest surveys by the local tourism agency)

Occurence of low lake water levels mostly during late summer (August/September)

Decrease of overnight stays and day-visitors is to be expected for the low lake water levels during summer period

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Correlations between climate and agricultural yield for the lake Neusiedl area

Question: Which influence of climate variability on the agricultural yield of the most important crops could be identified for the last 9 years?

Approach: Estimation of the decrease of agricultural production was based on detailed climatic and agro-statistical analysis of the period 1997-2005 laying a specific focus on the dry year 2003 (corresponds with the climate scenario of the lake water level 115.0 m a.s.l.)

Results: Functions for estimating the yield decrease in relation to temperature and precipitation changes

Application: Economic analysis of climate scenarios which also influence the lake water level

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Regression model for the dependence of wheat yield on precipitation and temperature in the north of Burgenland

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10

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70

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30

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60

70

14,0

14,515,0

15,516,0

16,517,0

17,5

150200

250300

Yie

ld (

dt/h

a)

Yie

ld (

dt/h

a)

Tem

p.m

ean

April

- Ju

ne

Precipitation sum Feb. - June

Winter wheat 1997-2005Districts Eisenstadt U. + Neusiedl

per °C increase: - 2.1 ± 7.7 dt/haper 100 mm more precipitation: + 6.3 ± 7.7 dt/ha

r² = 0.75

Yield functions of eight relevant agricultural crops (including confidence intervals)

Estimation of decrease of agricultural production (potential losses only refer to annual crops)

Agricultural production is directly affected by the growth-relevant climatic conditions (scenarios) which determine the lake water level

High percentage of sandy soils which are subject to drying up and with high irrigation demand

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Estimation of the economic value of potential yield decrease

Districts ND+EU Production value 2005 in Mio. € *

Decrease of production value Scenario 2003 – 115.0 m a.s.l. (Mio. €)

Decrease of production value Scenario 114,7 m (Mio. €)

Wheat 6,33 1,67 2,85 Barley 1,71 0,39 0,67 Maize 7,07 1,80 3,06 Other crops 1,07 0,26 0,45 Peas 0,59 0,14 0,23 Soja beans 0,17 0,03 0,06 Potatoes 1,16 0,46 0,78 Sugar beat 8,78 0,36 0,61 Rape 0,77 0,37 0,62 Sun flower 1,17 0,25 0,43

Total 28,82 5,73 9,75 From 2 5 Estimation of

uncertainty To 12 20

* Source: http://www.agrarstatistik.at/

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Estimation of decrease in turnover (bandwidths) for the selected water level scenarios for the NUTS3 Region Nordburgenland

Decrease in turnover per year for selected water level scenarios

115.20 m a.s.l. 115.00 m a.s.l 114.70 m a.s.l.

Affected sectors Maximum Minimum Maximum Minimum

Overnight stays of tourists

none

-10% 0% -35% -10 %

Day visitors -15% -5% -50% -30%

Water sportsSailing: -20%Surfing: - 10%

Kite surfing: 0%

Sailing: -90%Surfing: - 65%

Kite surfing: -50%

Retail sales -1% 0% -2% -1%

Agriculture (without viniculture) -40% -5% -60% -25%

Reed culture none none

Fishery none -25%

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Economic analysis of the various affected sector

Regional economic analysis of potential effects by using the method of multi-regional input-output analysis:

Captures the linkages of the supply and reference structures of the different economic

sectors Determines direct (within the sector), indirect (on sectors from which services have

been supplied) and induced (due to income changes) effects on- Value added

- Employment

Calculations were carried out for the NUTS 3 Region Nordburgenland (Districts: Neusiedl, Rust, Eisenstadt, Eisenstadt-Umgebung, Mattersburg)

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Gross value added Burgenland 2003

Gross value added Nordburgenland 2003

Agriculture 146 Mio 97 Mio

Retail trade 141 Mio 85 Mio

Summer tourism (overnight stays) 137 Mio 83 Mio

Summer tourism (day visitors) 18 Mio 11 Mio

Sailing, surfing, kite surfing 1,5 Mio 1,5 Mio

Lake baths 490.000 490.000

Fishery 410.000 274.000

Liners/ferries 310.000 310.000

Radverleih 6

Economic analysis – Status Quo

Source: Statistik Austria, analysis and calculations by ExAqua

Gross value added (EURO)

Total gross value added of affected sectors ~ 278 Mio EURO

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Economic Analysis – Assessment of the Lake Water Level Scenarios (Value added)

Decrease of gross value added per year for the NUTS 3 Region Nordburgenland:

Total decrease of value added for the region NUTS 3 NordburgenlandScenario 115.00 m a.s.l. (average) and 114.70 m a.s.l. (average)

0 5 10 15 20 25

Agriculture

Summer tourism (overnight stays)

Summer tourism (day-visitors)

Retail sales

Sailing, surfing, kite surfing

Bathing

Lake liners

Bycicle rentals

Value added decrase in Mio Euro

Scenario 115.0 (average)

Scenario 114.7 (average)

Most affected sectors: Tourism, hotel and restaurant business Agriculture Retail trade

Lake level

115.0 m a.s.l.

Lake level 114.7 m a.s.l.

Minimum 2 Mio. € 20 Mio. €

Maximum 24 Mio. € 62 Mio. €

Average 13 Mio. € 41 Mio. €

Decrease of 1.46 % of total gross value added within the region Nordburgenland, 15% of concerned sectors

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Economic Analysis – Assessment of the Lake Water Level Scenarios (Employment)

Decrease of employment (full-time equivalents) per year for the NUTS 3 Region Nordburgenland:

Lake level

115.0 m a.s.l.

Lake level

114.7 m a.s.l.

Minimum 273 861

Maximum 1.829 3.521

Average 1.016 2.191

Most affected sectors: Agriculture Tourism, hotel and restaurant business Retail trade

Total decrease of employment for the region NUTS 3 NordburgenlandScenario 115.00 m a.s.l. (average) and 114.70 m a.s.l. (average)

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Agriculture

Summer tourism (overnight stays)

Summer tourism (day-visitors)

Retail sales

Sailing, surfing, kite surfing

Bathing

Lake liners

Fishery

Employment decrase in full-time equivalents

Scenario 115.0 (average.Scenario 114.7 (average)

Employment decrease of 3.8 % within the region Nordburgenland

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Economic analysis – Results

→ Gross value added and employment situation are directly related to the lake water level scenarios

→ Water level of 114.7 m a.s.l. – compared to a water level of 115.0 m a.s.l. – would create an even

- 3 times higher decrease of value added and a- 2.5 times higher employment decrease

The strongest affected sectors are: Tourism, hotel and restaurant business

More distinctive decrease for overnight stays than for day-visitors Negative image of a dry year with low lake level can negatively affect the following years

Agriculture: Climate change shows significant effects on agriculture, however, not related to the lake water

levels Retail trade

Calculated gross value added and employment decreases correspond only to the year of low lake water level occurrence, potential consequences for the subsequent years are not considered.

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Summary of Economic Analysis – Gross value added

ScenarioLake water level

115.00 m a.s.l.Lake water level

114.70 m a.s.l.

Probability of occurrence

Calculated

Decrease of gross value addedin Mio EURO per year


Calculated

Decrease of gross value added in Mio EURO per year

Minimum Mean Maximum Minimum Mean Maximum

Current situation(1991-2004) 71.4 years

2.2 (0.98)*

13.0 (7.5)*

23.8 (13.9)*

> 500 years

20.0 (17.6)*

41.2 (32.5)*

62.3 (47.5)*

Climate scenario 2020(2010-2030)

6.9 years 22.7 years



* Values not considering agriculture

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Summary of Economic Analysis – Employment situation

ScenarioLake water level

115.00 m a.s.l.Lake water level

114.70 m a.s.l.


Calculated

Decrease of employmentin Mio EURO per year


Calculated

Decrease of employment in Mio EURO per year

Minimum Mean Maximum Minimum Mean Maximum

Current situation(1991-2004) 71.4 years

85 (23)*

473 (192)*

861 (361)*

> 500 years

568 (144)*

1271 (835)*

1973 (1225)*





* Values not considering agriculture

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Summary and Conclusions

Low lake water levels will occur more frequently (due to climate change forecasts)

Results of economic analysis show significant decrease of gross value added and employment situation for the region Nordburgenland, resp. Lake Neusiedl region for the lake water level scenarios 115.0 m a.s.l. and 114.7 m a.s.l.

Economic forecasts are strongly dependent on the following factors of uncertainty: Climate change forecasts and climate variability

Time and duration of low lake water level conditions

Occurence probabilities – Negative effects on the following years

General tourism behaviour

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Ways forward – Options for the FutureWhich measures are feasible and appropriate in order to counteract to the negative

economic forecasts? Tourism strategies

Reducing the dependence of tourism on the lake water level by intensifying further tourism offers like wellness, culture, wine, cycling etc.

Intensifying quality tourism (investments in tourism infrastructure and employees). Extending the tourist high season to spring and early summer respectively autumn where higher lake

water levels occur, targeting year-round tourism. Addressing new target groups (in addition to bathing and water sport tourists) and international tourists.

Water management strategies Artificial stabilization of the lake water balance: Currently two options are discussed, which either intend

to use ground water (bank filtration from the Danube river), or water from the river Raab on the Hungarian side.

Optimisation of irrigation management and use of draught resistant cultures in agriculture. Development of a transboundary water management plan for the Lake Neusiedl region (e.g. INTERREG)

………….

Assessment and coordination of different options with regard to environment, economomy and efficiency (Multicriteria – Assessment)

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The Austrian Research Centers

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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!

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Documents

GFD WATER GFD ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH „CLIMATE CHANGE – IMPACTS ON HYDROLOGY AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT “ Scientific Study on the Impacts of the Decreasing