1

Benny Daniel; VP-Consulting; Mobility-EI

Frost & Sullivan

Future of Autonomous Vehicles 12 Key Business Streams to generate >$200Bn by 2030

1

2

Technology SAE L0 SAE L1 SAE L2 SAE L3 SAE L4 SAE L5

Adaptive Cruise Control ● ● ● ● ●

Parking Helper L1 ●

Active Lane Centering ● ● ● ● ●

Parking Helper L2 ● ● ● ●

Highway Pilot L2 ● ● ● ●

Traffic Jam Pilot ● ● ●

AD System L3 ●

AD System L4 - Highway ●

AD System L4 - City ●

Parking Valet ● ●

AD System L5 ●

ADAS Market: Product Segmentation, Europe and North America, 2018

LEVELS OF AUTOMATION

L0

NO DRIVING AUTOMATION

Driver drives the vehicle, vehicle can provide

assist features.

L1

DRIVING AUTOMATION ASSISTANCE

Either steering or braking assist, but not

simultaneously.

L2

PARTIAL DRIVING AUTOMATION

Steering and braking assist together as support

feature only, human driver to supervise.

L3

CONDITIONAL DRIVING AUTOMATION

Automation of full driving task with human

fallback; driver to respond promptly when

alerted.

L4

CONDITIONAL DRIVING AUTOMATION

Full automation in pre-determined conditions;

human to drive when system not engaged.

L5

FULL DRIVING AUTOMATION

Vehicle drives itself always unless the human

intends to drive.

SAE Definition for Various Levels of Automation Features within each level of automation will drive adoption within use cases in ownership and usership

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Autonomous Driving SAE Levels: Priority By Use Case, 2025-2030

Note: Technologies mentioned here are not an exhaustive list of L3, L4 and L5 functions.

Automated

Driving System

L3

Automated

Driving System

L4 (highway)

Automated

Driving System

L4 (City)

Parking

Valet

Automated

Driving

System L5

Technology

SAE L3

SAE L4

SAE L5

Ownership

Usership

Robo Taxis

Shuttles

Car Sharing

Ride Sharing

SAE Definition for Various Levels of Automation Development and deployment of AD features for

Low Medium High Impact:

5

18 Million Highly Automated Vehicles (L3/4/5) Globally by 2030 L3 to peak at 35% of total autonomous car market by 2026; L4 to enter ownership.

- - - 82 477

1,171

2,242

3,827

5,622

7,487

9,305

11,291

13,316

15,404

18,031

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

L3 L4 L5

Global Autonomous Driving, Market Volumes, 2016-2030

Un

its in

Th

ou

san

ds

(‘000s)

Years

Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis

L3

L4

6

Years

Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis

Global Autonomous Driving, Market Revenue, 2016-2030

AD Services to Account for 65% of Revenues by 2030 60% of ADS to be led by Shuttle Services, with China contributing an overall 50% to ADS revenues.

$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $2.02 $8.33

$14.10 $17.67

$23.31

$31.54

$39.73

$48.48

$69.85

$95.79

$127.62

$173.12

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

AD Product Revenue AD Service Revenue

$ in

Billio

n

65%

7

1. User Based

Insurance

2. Vehicle Data

Services

3. Maintenance and

Predictive Model

Peripheral Services

1. In-vehicle feature

updates

2. Valet Parking /

Parking

3. BOOM

Hotspots: 12 Revenue Opportunities for Key Stakeholders Represents 65% of Overall Autonomous Market in 2030; 12 streams to cover $200 Bn in revenue.

Mobility

Autonomous

Service Revenue

12 UNIQUE Revenue propositions

1. Pods

2. Taxi

3. Shuttles

1. Kerb Side Delivery

2. Refuse / Recover /

City Logistics

3. Hub 2 Hub

[Highway Logistics)

Logistics & Services 3 4 Vehicle Services 2

1. Pods

2. Taxi

3. Shuttles

Mobility 1 1

Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis

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Expected YoY Global Penetration Rate Of Autonomous Shuttles by Number of Rides, Global, 2018–2030

Shared Mobility: Shuttles (By Rides) $74.42 Billion By 2030! Based on a weighted average of the fare ($3.6 per autonomous trip) globally.

2018 2026 2030

0 1.59 Total Estimated Number of Trips (in Billion)

Global Average Fare per ride for a certain

length (in US$) NA 3.13 3.16 3.32 3.41 3.5 3.9

Autonomous Rides Penetration 0 5.7% 11.4% 19% 22.9% 26.8% 30.7%

Value ($ Billion) 0 1.25 5.04 16.38 27.63 45.61 74.5

13.02

2023 2025 2027 2028 2029 2030

0.41 4.92 8.09 20.7

Today fare per Ride is estimated at $3.9: Constitutes of: 15% Operator Profit = $0.6 30%

Labor Cost =$1.2 35% Operation Cost (Insurance, parking) = $1.4 20% Maintenance Cost (Service, Fuel) = $0.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

ROW

China

ASEAN

Africa

SAM

Europe

NAR86% Y

oY

Gro

wth

Ra

te:

To

tal

Ma

rke

t S

ize

(B

illio

n R

ide

s)

75%

69%

65%

87% 193% 115%

63%

Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis

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Expected YoY Global Adoption Rate Of Autonomous Taxis by Number of Rides, Global, 2018–2030

Shared Mobility: Automated Taxi (By Rides): $38.61B by 2030! China and North America being the major markets.

2018 2026 2030

0 0.85 Total Estimated Number of Trips (in Billion)

Global Average Fare per ride (in US$) NA 0 4.3 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.4

Autonomous Trips Penetration 0 0 0.6% 1.4% 2.1% 2.9% 3.7%

Value ($ Billion) 0 0 3.64 12.52 20.53 29.24 38.61

4.64

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

ROW

China

ASEAN

Africa

SAM

Europe

NAR

2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

0

243.7% To

tal M

ark

et

Siz

e

(In

Billio

n R

ide

s)

63.9%

42.4%

32.1%

2.02 3.28 6.08

Markets include developed regions like Australia, Japan and Singapore where autonomous taxis are likely to grow faster.

The average cost per trip by 2030 is expected to be around $3.64 estimating 30-40% of the total to be driver costs.

Years

Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis

??

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SHORT TERM MEDIUM TERM LONG TERM

Ow

ne

rsh

ip

Sh

are

d

Autonomous

Parking/

Chauffeur

L3 Robo

Taxi

Highway

auto pilot

(L3)

Fleet

V2X

Intra Fleet

Platooning

Scheduled

/in fleet

platooning

Traffic jam

Assist

L5 Geo

Fenced

Shuttles

Geo fenced

– Airports,

Construction

sites

Hub-hub

Transfer

Intra State

Long Haul

Inter State

Long Haul

Hub-Dock

Transfer

(Regional)

Dock-dock

Transfer

(Regional)

Go

od

s

L5 Ride

Hailing L4 Shuttles

L4 Vehicle

L4 Robo

Taxis

CONVENIENCE

SA

FE

TY

?

COST

Use Cases Driving Autonomous Adoption Convenience driver in ownership and usership. Cost primary driver in logistics.

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Electronic Platform

Vehicle Platform (Electric)

Ease of Use , User Delight 1

3D Approach for the OS 2

HMI and Infotainment Features 3

3D Car as the Menu 4

IoT Integration 5

Future Of Vehicle Platforms & Architectures CASE Convergence will lead to 3 Platforms as Building Blocks for AD Development

Digital Platform

Diagnostics and Vehicle Health Monitoring

Electrical Power Systems

Backup Autonomous Driving System

Redundant Braking and Steering Systems

1

2

3

4

Redundancy ECUs 1

Domain Controllers &

Interfacing Units 2

Cyber Security Modules 3

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Ecosystem: Providing “Cost” and “Convenience” in Autonomous OEMs planning foray into ecosystem via partnership / acquisition or in-house model.

(1)

Hardware

(2)

Software

(3)

Cloud

(4)

Fleet Management Services

Car In car In-car Outside AI Service MAP Others S/W; P/F Fleet

ICE

EV

LID

AR

RA

DA

R

CA

ME

RA

OS

M/W

AP

I

V2V

V2X

AU

TO

NO

MO

US

CO

NN

EC

TIV

ITY

HD

Fle

et

Deplo

ym

ent

Invento

ry M

gm

t

Custo

mer

Engagem

ent

Paym

ent

Cars

Other

Vital

Partners

Consortium

Mode

Acquisition Mode

Conquest Mode

Hybrid Mode

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Future Ownership & Usership Structures Users to access multiple structures based on their day to day needs and travel scenarios.

OWNERSHIP USERSHIP

Full

Ownership

Leased

Ownership

Exclusive

Licence

Shared

Licence

Fleet

Service

Private Owned

Service

STATUS DRIVEN ACCESS DRIVEN COST DRIVEN

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Key Takeaways & Discussion Points

1 in 6 cars sold (18Mn) globally to be automated (L3, L4 and L5) by 2030 -China leading; Shuttle Programs and Automated Taxis to have biggest share of revenue pie

12 Key Autonomous Driving Based Services to Account for $200Bn by 2030 -Shuttles and Robotaxis contribute 54%.

OEMs Will Consider Options to Capitalize on future AD Service market -Options include: Consortiums, Partnerships, Acquisitions or Hybrid

Tier 1 Supplier Role will Evolve (Integrator; H/W agnostic S/W) -Tech partnership, acquisition or consortiums vital to develop new mobility ecosystems!

Autonomous to Disrupt Existing New Mobility Business Models -Likely convergence of e-hailing and car sharing operations to Ride Sharing by 2025/30!

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Benny Daniel

Vice President – Consulting

Mobility-EI

Direct: +44 2089 968 528

Mobile: +44 7597 694 310

bdaniel@frost.com

Get In Touch!