Disampaikan dalam acara: FGD Sinkronisasi Kelembagaan Penyelenggaraan Telekomunikasi

Kemenko Polhukam, Jakarta, 25 April 2013

By: Eddy Satriya Asdep Telematika dan Utilitas

DEPUTI INFRASTRUKTUR DAN PENGEMBANGAN WILAYAH

Kemenko Perekonomian

1

MP3EI, Kasus IM2 dan Dunia Usaha

CONTENT: 1. MP3EI: The Way We Are

2. Economy, ICT and Connectivity

3. ICT Industry is not an ATM

1.MP3EI: The Way We Are

Before, Now, and Then……!!! (China , America, and Indonesia)

China constructs Bridges

What can Indonesia do???

America exports Chopsticks

Rich Natural Resources most of them are still intact to be processed into higher VA products

Natural Gas Thermal Coal Geothermal Palm Oil Cocoa Tin Nickel Bauxite Frequency Spectrum

Key

Metrics

About 165 TCF of

reserves at production rate ± 3 TCF

pa

World second largest

exporter

Home of 40% of world’s

resources (the largest

in the world)

World’s largest

exporter; >19 mil tons per

year

At 770 thou tons/year, world’s 2nd

largest producer

At 65 thou tons/year, world’s 2nd

largest producer

Own ± 12% of world’s reserves

(4th largest)

World’s 7th largest

reserves; world’s 4th

largest production

700 MHz outside

Java, Potential

arrangement for Java

area

2300-2360 MHz urban nationwide

About 40% is assumed feasible. Up to now, 1.200 MW has been developed.

Will be at least partially processed

domestically by 2013 (new mining law:

4/2009)

• Abundant resources for gas-based energy and petrochemical industries

• Not including Non- Conventional Gases, from Coal Bed Methane and Coal Gassification

5

6

148

10794

57

46

37

2826

17

Legislative

Demokrat

Golkar

PDI-P

PKS

PAN

PPP

PKB

Gerindra

Political Stability: the world’s third largest

democracy

Appointed

Appointed

38%

Directly

elected

Directly

elected

62%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2002 2007 2009 Source: World Bank, 2009

% of appointed local government heads vs. directly elected

In election year 2009, President wins

more than 60% votes from 176 million

registered voters

(election year 2009)

7

(New) Democracy YES!

Just Recently (20 Sept

2012)

An humble Major from

small city Solo in Central

Java, JOKO WIDODO

paired with AHOK from

Belitung (Sumatera),

unsurprisingly won the

most prestigious position

as DKI Jaya - Jakarta

governors. Courtesy of Antara

8

Indonesia Economic Corridors: Masterplan

Basically MP3EI is based on these

strategic initiatives:

1. Encourage a large scale investment

realization in 22 main economic

activities

2. Synchronization of national action

plan to revitalize the real sector

performance

3. The development of center of

excellence in 6 (six) economic

corridors

Main strategy of MP3EI:

1. Economic potential development

through economic corridor

2. Strengthening the national

connectivity

3. Strengthening national human

resources capability and science

and technology

9

MP3EI aims at accelerating Indonesia’s economic transformation through cross-entity synergy and collaboration

2010 GDP ~ US$ 700 B GDP/c US$ 3,005 17th major nation

2014 GDP: US$ ~ 1,2

T GDP/c: US$ ~ 4.800 14 major economy

2025 GDP: US$ 3,8 – 4,5T GDP/c: 13.000 – 16.100 US$ 12 high income country

1

2

3

Developing economic potential through economic corridors

Strengthening national human resources capability and science & technology

Strengthening national connectivity

• Coordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs, National Development and Planning Agency, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Public Works, Ministry of Transportation, Ministry of Forestry, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (other relevant Ministries), Governors, Chamber of Commerce leaders, experts, business players

• 9 Working Groups: 3 Cross-sector Working Groups (Regulation, Connectivity, HR & Tech) and 6 Working Groups of Economic Corridors)

In creating economic transformation for Indonesia, MP3EI employs three pillars…

… and revolves in the cross-entity efforts to ensure sound projects coordination, consisting of:

Chairman : President

Vice Chairman: Vice President

DAILY IMPLEMENTATION TEAM

Chairman: Coordinating Minister of Economic Affair

Vice Chairman 1: Minister of National Dev Planning Agency

Vice Chairman 2: Chairman of National Economic Committee

SECRETARIAT

Java

EC

Team

Sumatra

EC

Team

Sulawesi

EC

Team

Kalimantan

EC

Team

Bali-NT

EC

Team

Papua-

Kep.Maluku

EC Team

REGULATION

Working Group

CONNECTIVITY

Working Group HR & TECH

Working Group

Note

*EC

Economic

Corridor 10

10

Presentase Realisasi GB 2011 berdasar nilai investasi (bukan jumlah proyek)

Realisasi GB berdasar investasi (dalam Rp T)

Papua - Maluku

Belum GB Sudah GB

80 100%

Bali - NT 40 100%

Sulawesi 64 18%

Kalimantan 26 95% 5%

Jawa 171 98%

Sumatera 90 97% 3%

100%

Total

Investasi

411,63

Campuran Pemerintah

77,14

94,46

Swast

a

80,24

BUMN

159,78

KE Sulawesi sudah GB sebanyak 7 dari 11 proyek, namun proyek-proyek yang belum berhasil GB bernilai cukup besar (di sektor pertambangan mineral).

Sejauh ini sudah 92% proyek yang terealisasikan untuk GB di tahun 2011. Hanya Sulawesi saja yang realisasi dari total proyeknya masih tersisa di 63%

Total Investasi Rp Triliun

37

proyek

42

proyek

22

proyek 10

proyek 111

proyek

11 11

6% 35,5 94%

100%

Bali - NT 4,4 37% 63%

Sulawesi 10,4 100%

Kalimantan 99,3 100%

Jawa 92,6 100%

Sumatera 37,8 17% 83%

Belum GB Sudah GB

Papua - Maluku

Swast

a

115,56

Campuran

13,07

BUMN Pemerintah

42,00

41,65

Total

Investasi

212,28

Ini mengindikasikan terdapat proyek-proyek yang bernilai besar namun belum GB di KE Sumatera dan KE Papua-Maluku (Sumatera: jalan tol, investasi BUMN pupu,, Papua: Freeport).

Sejauh ini sudah 81% proyek yang terealisasikan untuk GB di tahun 2012. Jawa dan Sulawesi sudah GB 100%.

Total Investasi Rp Triliun

20

proyek

28

proyek

21

proyek 4

proyek 71

proyek

Presentase Realisasi GB 2012 berdasar nilai investasi (bukan jumlah proyek)

Realisasi GB berdasar investasi (dalam Rp T)

12

Koridor Ekonomi

Jumlah Proyek Nilai Investasi

Total (Rp. Milyar)

Infrastrukt

ur Sektor Riil Infrastruktur Sektor Riil Proyek

Nilai

Investasi

(Rp. Milyar)

Sumatera 32 7

25.814,9

36.719,0 39 62.533,9

Jawa 13 31

74.840,0

40.934,0 44 115.774,0

Kalimantan 9 11

14.628,0

94.250,7 20 108.878,7

Sulawesi 9 7

7.880,0

2.858,0 16 10.738,0

Bali-NT 5 4

16.838,0

26.435,0 9 43.273,0

Papua-Kep.Maluku 14 4 3.085,0

201.480,0 18 204.565,0

Total 82 64

143.085,9

402.676,7 146 545.762,6

Nilai rencana proyek yang akan GB lebih banyak dari GB tahun 2012, dan nilai investasinya sekitar dua kali lipat dari rencana GB 2012. * Desember 2012 13

13

2. Economy, ICT and

Connectivity

2010 2011 2012

TARGET RPJM

REALIZATION TARGET

RPJM REALIZATION TARGET RPJM REALIZATION*)

Economic Growth 5,5- 5,6 6,2 6,0 - 6,3 6,5 6,4 - 6,9 6,23

Inflation 4 - 6 7 4,0 - 6,0 3,8 4,0 - 6,0 4,30

Unemployment 7,6 7,1 7,3 - 7,4 6,6 6,7 - 7,0 6,14 (Agt)

Poverty 12,0 - 13,5 13,33 11,5 - 12,5 12,49 10,5 - 11,5 11,66 (Sept)

When Realizations meet Targets

2013 2014

STATUS TARGET RPJM

TARGET APBN 2013

TARGET RPJM

TARGET RKP

Economic Growth 6,7 - 7,4 6,8 7,0%-7,7% 6,8 – 7,2

Inflation 3,5 – 5,5 4,9 3,5 – 5,5 4,5 + 1

Unemployment 6,0 - 6,6 5,8 – 6,1 5%-6% 5,0 – 6,0

Poverty 9,5 - 10,5 9,5 – 10,5 8%-10% 8,0 – 10,0

1 On Track/on Trend 2 =Need Efforts

2

1

1

2

*) Tentaive figure

Source: Bappenas 2013 15

16

Macroeconomics in Brief

Source: BPS

Sumber : telabs, 2012 17

Internet : The Sector or Country ?

Indonesia is above world average… Indonesia >100 (above world mobile average)

18

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*

Pe

r 1

00

in

ha

bita

nts

Global ICT developments, 2001-2011*

Mobile-cellular telephone subscriptions

Internet users

Fixed telephone lines

Active mobile-broadband subscriptions

Fixed (wired)-broadband subscriptions

* Estimate.

Source: ITU World Telecommunication /ICT Indicators database

18

ICT sebagai tulang punggung ekonomi modern, juga merupakan salah satu fokus penguatan konektivitas nasional...

Kebutuhan lalu lintas data (traffic) meningkat drastis ...

... begitu pula dengan jaringan.

Economic Architecture: Regional and Trans-Regional Forum

20 SOURCE: BAPPENAS

Indonesia Located In The Heart of the World Global Trade Future > 70% of the world ocean container flows associated with Asia ...

1. Includes NE, SE, and S. Asia 2. Includes domestic Note: Container flows based on forecasts excluding empties and transshipment but including domestic for intra-regional trade; some trades excluded for display purposes; CAGR based on 2007-2015

Global container trade flows based on primary trade, 2015 (in million TEUs)

Transpacific West bound (CAGR=5.2%)

Intra-Asia1,2 (CAGR=7.4%) Transpacific

East bound (CAGR=2.2%)

Europe – Far East (CAGR= 8.2%)

Transatlantic (CAGR=1.5%)

Intra-Europe2

(CAGR=1.2%)

Far East – Australasia (CAGR=2.0%)

Far East – Latin America (CAGR=6.4%)

Europe – Latin America (CAGR=2.2%)

North America – Latin America (CAGR=2.7%)

Far East – Middle East (CAGR=5.8%)

= 1 Juta TEUs (2015, non-Asia related)

Far East – Europe (CAGR= 3.4%)

North America2

(CAGR=2.5%)

Latin America2

(CAGR=3.6%)

= 1 Juta TEUs (2015, Asia related) 4.6

17.1

7.3

5.9

9.3

3.9 17.5

9.5

4.1

58.9

9.8

1.7

1.5

7.4

Asia related

> 70%

KP3EI

21 SOURCE: BCG analysis, Singapore case study

Domestically, Trade Route is growing rapidly Inter-island trade developed with the growth of CAGR = 37% in the last 5 years…

= Selected major domestic goods routes (MT/yr)

Inter-island trade increased 5x from 638 million tons in 2006 to

3,153 million tons ins 2011

39 MT 70% CAGR

9 MT 18% CAGR

10 MT 36% CAGR

56 MT 35% CAGR

74 MT 40% CAGR

13 MT 85% CAGR

66 MT 6% CAGR

18 MT 27% CAGR

2 MT 70% CAGR

2 MT 96% CAGR

2 MT 52% CAGR

8 MT 73% CAGR

8 MT 2% CAGR

20 MT 50% CAGR

51 MT 66% CAGR = Route is part of "Pendulum Nusantara" (MT/yr)

Note: Province to province origin-destination goods flow for all means of transportation (sea, air, land), CAGR 2006-2011 Source: OD Matrix - Ministry of Transportation 2006 and 2011

KP3EI

22

Integrasi SISLOGNAS, SISTRANAS, RPJMN/RTRWN dan ICT untuk memperkuat Konektivitas Nasional

NATIONAL STRATEGY ON CONNECTIVITY STRENGHTENING

Focus on strengthening National Connectivity is to support the acceleration and expansion of Indonesia’s

Economic Development through:

Connectivity in the Economic Growth Centers in the Corridors between the

Center of Economic Growth to rural areas, including non-corridor areas

1. Meningkatkan dan membangun jalan dan jalur pelayaran di koridor

2. Meningkatkan & fasilitas infrastruktur dengan kereta api penumpang dan barang

3. Meningkatkan akses jalan lokal yang menghubungkan pusat-pusat pertumbuhan dengan fasilitas pendukung (pelabuhan, energi)

1. Menetapkan pelabuhan laut dan bandara di barat dan timur Indonesia sebagai hub internasional

2. Membuka gateway internasional yang baru (link) ke luar negeri

3. Mengembangkan exchange internasional di pusat-pusat pertumbuhan

1. Mendorong arus barang dan jasa antar-ekonomi koridor untuk meningkatkan daya saing regional dan global yang efisien dan efektif

2. Mengurangi biaya logistik dan ekonomi antar-ekonomi koridor umtuk pengiriman barang dan jasa

24 SOURCE: BAPPENAS

NATIONAL COORDINATION ON ACTUALIZING ASEAN CONNECTIVITY

Ketua:

WAMEN PPN/WAKA BAPPENAS

Sekretaris Wakil Ketua

UNIT KERJA

KELEMBAGAAN UNIT KERJA HUBUNGAN

ANTAR MASYARAKAT

UNIT KERJA

PENGHUBUNG DENGAN

ASEAN

UNIT KERJA

INFRASTRUKTUR

TIM KERJA KONEKTIVITAS

UNIT KERJA

SISLOGNAS

UNIT KERJA ICT DAN

ENERGI

UNIT KERJA

TRANSPORTASI DAN KE-PU-

AN, DAN KONEKTIVITAS

ASEAN

25 SOURCE: BAPPENAS

3. ICT Industry is not an ATM

Industry Challenge

Indonesia Focus

28

29

Funding Challenge : ICT Fund

Source : Intel, BAPPENAS, 2011

Action Plan Broadband Economy in Indonesia (Mid-term)

Policy and Regulation:

• Accelerating Convergence Law

• TKDN System

• Regulation for supporting ICT Industry Growth

• Spectrum Refarming Regulation

Infrastructure: • National Broadband Network

• Backbone • Rural Last Mile

• Accelerating Implementation of USO Telecom & Internet Village

• Accelerating Backbone Network Deployment in Eastern Indonesia

Funding: • ICT Fund (USO + APBN) • Public Private Partnership • “Tax Concern” for ICT

Aplication, Content & Industry: • ICT Creative Industry • Free/Open Source & Open Platform • Developing ICT local industry

Institutional Capacity Building: • Developing “Skilled ICT Workers” • Empowering ICT SMB • Native ICT Enterpreneurship Developement

30

Regulasi ICT

• UU No. 36 Tahun 1999 tentang Telekomunikasi

• UU No. 32 Tahun 2002 tentang Penyiaran

• UU No. 11 Tahun 2008 tentang Informasi dan Transaksi Elektronik (ITE)

• UU No. 14 Tahun 2008 tentang Keterbukaan Informasi Publik (KIP)

• RUU Konvergensi Telematika masih dalam pembahasan di tingkat DPR

31

Struktur Industri ICT

1. Infrastruktur

2. Kebijakan dan Kerangka Regulasi

3. SDM/ICT Profesional

4. Aplikasi/Konten

5. Ekosistem/Technopark

32

PERAN TELEKOMUNIKASI

1. Sangat Strategis

2. Punya sejarah panjang sejak zaman Belanda

3. Berkontribusi besar dlm GDP

4. Telah mampu memberikan layanan infrastruktur terbaik dg berbagai pilihan (fixed line, 2G, 3G, 3,5G – post paid, prepaid-basic and data services, cable TV, etc.)

5. Diharapkan melalui aplikasi Broadband bisa menjadi meta-infrastructure menuju KBE

33

TOO BIG TO BE failed

1. Triliun Rupiah sudah diinvestasikan oleh Pemerintah, BUMN dan Swasta

2. The sector suffered/enjoyed a lot in the past!

3. Up and Down of the industry

4. Tulang punggung new economy

5. Membuka lapangan kerja yang luar biasa banyak utk berbagai tingkatan termasuk SME dan K5!

34

Hyper Competition with 11 operators in market…

35 Sumber : KADIN TIK & Ristek, 2012

Telcos vs. ATM Dunia telekomunikasi secara teknis betul-betul mengenal ATM sebagai Asynchronous Transfer Mode tapi tidak betul kalau itu diartikan

AUTOMATIC TELLER MACHINE/ ANJUNGAN TUNAI MANDIRI

Let’s put things right, folks!

36

REPUBLIC Of INDONESIA

COORDINATING MINISTRY FOR ECONOMIC AFFAIRS

Eddy Satriya Head of International Cooperation Division,

Secretariat of KP3EI

Deputy Assistant for ICT and Utility

Jalan Medan Merdeka Barat No. 7, Jakarta Pusat - Indonesia

Phone: +62 21 34832611; Fax: +62 21 34832609 email: satriyaeddy@gmail.com @EddySatriya

Recent publications are available on: eddysatriya.wordpress.com

kolom.pacific.net.id

Eddy Satriya • 1989 :Graduated from Bandung Institute of Technology

(Telecommunication Engineering)

• 1997 :Graduated from University of Connecticut (MA in Economics)

• 1989-90: Program Management Consultancy (PMC-IV) for Telecommunication Development

• 1990-2005: Working in Bappenas (The National Development Planning Agency).

• 1995 : Secretary to Board of Commissioners of PT.Telkomsel

• 1997- present: Visiting Lecturer in University of Indonesia, University of Pelita Harapan, and ITB

• 2002-present : Actively writes various article and column in national papers and magazines.

• 2005 (Dec)-present: Working in Coordinating Ministry for Economics Affairs

• 2011 - Present: Head of International Cooperation Division, Secretariat of KP3EI

Contact: satriyaeddy@gmail.com 62.21.3511466 – t

62.21.3511464 – f