Fight or Flight in Civil War? Evidence from Rebel ... · Areas of Rebel Control in Aleppo at the time of our study . 3 Figure 2. Sampling Locations in Aleppo . 4 Figure 3. Sampling

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Fight or Flight in Civil War? Evidence from Rebel Controlled Syria

Vera Mironova

Sam Whitt

Supplementary Online Appendix

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Figure 1. Areas of Rebel Control in Aleppo at the time of our study

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Figure 2. Sampling Locations in Aleppo

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Figure 3. Sampling Locations In and Around Idlib

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Table 1. Selective Incentive Hypotheses

(1.a) (1.b) (2.a) (2.b) (2.c) (2.d)

Access to

resources

Access to

resources

Safe in

current location

Safe in

current location

Saw violence

recently

Nearly

injured

fsafighter -0.0407 -1.382*** -0.0549 -1.142*** 1.021** 0.885**

(0.155) (0.194) (0.0753) (0.0720) (0.410) (0.375)

islamist 0.545*** -0.807*** 0.590*** -0.479*** 1.417** 1.564***

(0.119) (0.0511) (0.221) (0.0326) (0.709) (0.445)

civilian -1.343*** -1.082***

(0.0650) (0.141)

Ex-FSA 0.625***

(0.0365)

female -0.277 -0.430 0.103 0.220 -1.262* -1.098**

(0.206) (0.281) (0.173) (0.197) (0.671) (0.527)

age 0.00478 0.00195 0.0106*** 0.00903*** -0.0271 -0.00735

(0.00366) (0.00431) (0.000815) (0.00131) (0.0187) (0.0177)

education -0.0666 -0.0216 -0.0577 -0.0607 -0.184 -0.0633

(0.0671) (0.0910) (0.0880) (0.0572) (0.297) (0.261)

employed -0.165*** -0.0870 -0.0423 -0.0947*** -0.418 0.591

(0.0468) (0.0572) (0.0893) (0.0322) (0.570) (0.503)

Constant 2.499*** 3.767*** 2.017*** 3.184*** 1.744* -0.497

(0.0320) (0.0652) (0.334) (0.126) (1.059) (0.970)

Constant group Civilians Refugees Civilians Refugees Civilians Civilians

Observations 175 234 173 265 175 175

R2 0.157 0.156 0.167 0.123

LL -101.1 -108.4

Regression OLS OLS OLS OLS Logit Logit

Robust standard errors in parentheses

*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

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Table 2. Opportunity Cost Hypotheses

(3.a) (3.b) (3.b.1) (3.b.2) (3.b.3)

VARIABLES education employed whitecollar bluecollar student

fsafighter 0.170 0.0977 -0.0267 -0.0183 0.526

(0.121) (0.0711) (0.375) (0.608) (0.400)

islamist -0.0504 0.0458 -0.157 0.706 -0.0274

(0.129) (0.0791) (0.401) (0.567) (0.446)

exfighter -0.333** 0.0733 -0.911** 1.151** 0.345

(0.148) (0.0759) (0.442) (0.538) (0.425)

civilian 0.233* 0.133** -0.131 0.883* 0.107

(0.122) (0.0646) (0.349) (0.506) (0.385)

Constant 2.433***

(0.0932)

0.767***

(0.0551)

-0.475*

(0.266)

-2.197***

(0.430)

-1.099***

(0.298)

Constant group Refugees Refugees Refugees Refugees Refugees

Observations 296 297 305 305 305

R-squared 0.075 0.017

LL -192.20 -135.02 -181.87

Regression OLS OLS Logit Logit Logit


*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

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Table 3. Social Sanctioning Hypotheses

(4.a) (4.b) (5.a) (5.b)

VARIABLES Social distance in

community

Social distance in

community

Importance of

religion

More religious

since war?

fsafighter -0.791*** -0.192 -0.303 -0.147

(0.265) (0.183) (0.188) (0.0944)

islamist -0.817*** -0.168 0.476*** 0.260***

(0.0271) (0.229) (0.0275) (0.0200)

civilian -0.610*** -0.799*** -0.183

(0.135) (0.226) (0.174)

exfighter -0.424*** -0.301*** 0.0680**

(0.0320) (0.0334) (0.0297)

female -0.371* -0.325 0.109 0.0554

(0.200) (0.305) (0.199) (0.122)

age 0.00499 -0.00305** -0.0101*** -0.00983**

(0.00616) (0.00132) (0.00291) (0.00395)

education -0.160 0.0106 -0.00563 -0.0474

(0.117) (0.0324) (0.0899) (0.0472)

employed 0.185 0.0919 0.114 0.0526

(0.167) (0.0651) (0.153) (0.0876)

Constant 2.406*** 1.670*** 3.617*** 1.801***

(0.0908) (0.320) (0.121) (0.201)

Constant

group

Refugees Refugees Refugees Refugees

Observations 282 173 283 284

R2 0.0385 0.0281 0.0878 0.0334

Regression OLS OLS OLS OLS


*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

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Table 4. Social Identity Hypotheses

(6.a) (6.b) (6.c) (6.d) (6.e)

Close to people

in current location

Close to

FSA

Close to other

Rebel groups

Close to

Foreign fighters

Close to

ISIS

fsafighter 0.425 0.106 0.190* 0.153 0.468***

(0.302) (0.0799) (0.111) (0.154) (0.00857)

islamist 0.511*** -0.262*** 1.019***

(0.145) (0.0458) (0.0365)

civilian 0.281** -0.604*** -0.378*** -0.237*** 0.301***

(0.109) (0.160) (0.0280) (0.0409) (0.00740)

exfighter 0.0219 0.346*** 0.287*** -0.305***

(0.0601) (0.0494) (0.00884) (0.0192)

female -0.262 0.00474 -0.146 0.477** 0.128*

(0.553) (0.244) (0.241) (0.195) (0.0716)

age 0.00529 0.00486 -0.000924 -0.00239 0.00656*

(0.00324) (0.00765) (0.00594) (0.00316) (0.00362)

education -0.102 0.0260 -0.0313 -0.114* -0.0114

(0.121) (0.0237) (0.0402) (0.0609) (0.0574)

employed 0.247 0.0327 0.0874 -0.112 0.183

(0.228) (0.0832) (0.189) (0.305) (0.114)

Constant 3.220*** 3.181*** 3.012*** 2.713*** 1.133***

(0.220) (0.323) (0.115) (0.288) (0.230)

Constant Group Refugees Refugees Refugees Refugees Refugees

Observations 241 279 279 218 158

R2 0.108 0.0732 0.156 0.0367 0.0148

Regression OLS OLS OLS OLS OLS


*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

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Table 5. Dictator Game Behavior

(6.f) (6.g)

VARIABLES Altruism

toward local

person

Altruism

toward FSA

rebel

fsafighter -6.548 102.7

(21.47) (98.90)

civilian -11.15** -30.83*

(4.683) (16.86)

exfighter 52.05***

(14.21)

female -99.18* -57.30***

(57.83) (14.27)

age -0.351 1.374

(0.777) (1.122)

education 10.22*** 9.495

(3.666) (35.68)

employed 60.39* -72.34***

(34.14) (21.18)

Constant 420.7*** 306.8***

(12.57) (60.35)

Observations 187 217

Number of location2 3 4

R2 0.146 0.0873


*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

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Table 6. Emotional Responses to Violence (Basic Negative Affect Components + Fatigue)

(7.a) (7.b) (7.c) (7.d) (7.e)

VARIABLES Fear Hostility Sadness Guilt Fatigue

fsafighter -0.314* -0.0811 -1.000*** -0.128*** -0.215*

(0.172) (0.139) (0.0915) (0.0406) (0.111)

islamist -0.810*** 0.695*** -0.535*** -1.052*** -0.876***

(0.109) (0.121) (0.0206) (0.0265) (0.0733)

civilian -0.310*** 0.0276 -1.059*** -0.102 -0.512***

(0.115) (0.227) (0.192) (0.0756) (0.0467)

exfighter -0.215* -0.104 -0.906*** -0.407*** -0.319***

(0.118) (0.121) (0.0258) (0.0388) (0.0636)

female 0.459 0.280 -0.417*** -0.608** -0.170

(0.636) (0.691) (0.107) (0.247) (0.428)

age -0.00575 -0.0154* -0.00408 0.00130 0.00961

(0.00561) (0.00809) (0.00908) (0.00319) (0.00742)

education 0.0122 0.0901 0.0297 -0.200 -0.0183

(0.111) (0.137) (0.0745) (0.151) (0.0775)

employed -0.193 -0.208** -0.395 0.252 -0.481*

(0.186) (0.0856) (0.277) (0.185) (0.251)

Constant 3.392*** 3.176*** 4.209*** 3.218*** 3.474***

(0.500) (0.287) (0.245) (0.261) (0.241)

Observations 282 282 284 284 283

Number of location2 4 4 4 4 4

R2 0.0634 0.0412 0.0489 0.0910 0.0542


*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

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Table 7. Emotional Responses to Violence (Basic Positive Affect Components)

(1) (2) (3)

VARIABLES A1c_strong A1d_determined A1f_happy

fsafighter 0.153 -0.101 -0.0983

(0.209) (0.0770) (0.238)

islamist 0.703*** -0.117*** -0.219***

(0.0380) (0.0261) (0.0674)

civilian 0.177 -0.391*** -0.210**

(0.141) (0.0373) (0.0884)

exfighter -0.0699 -0.0361 -0.0773

(0.0551) (0.0322) (0.0792)

female 0.116 0.387* -0.570

(0.171) (0.221) (0.454)

age -0.00301 0.0160*** 0.0171*

(0.00621) (0.00372) (0.00881)

education -0.0228 0.0998 -0.0382

(0.138) (0.0608) (0.148)

employed -0.127 0.228 0.413***

(0.222) (0.204) (0.0827)

Constant 2.848*** 2.129*** 2.096***

(0.127) (0.158) (0.354)

Observations 281 280 283

Number of location2 4 4 4

R2 0.0422 0.0437 0.0586


*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

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Table 8. Perceptions of Agency

(8.a) (8.b) (8.c) (8.d)

VARIABLES I feel I have no

Other option but to

stay here

I feel I have no

influence

over the direction

of my life

I am optimistic

about

My future

I am very

worried about my

future

fsafighter -1.120*** 0.657*** 0.597*** 0.0735

(0.0110) (0.126) (0.189) (0.213)

islamist 0.0672 0.459*** -0.890***

(0.139) (0.0422) (0.0665)

civilian -0.644*** 0.480*** 0.375** 0.103

(0.0149) (0.127) (0.165) (0.177)

exfighter -0.465*** 0.0770 0.208*** -0.222**

(0.115) (0.157) (0.0441) (0.0960)

female 0.168 -0.656 0.586** 0.0492

(0.208) (0.794) (0.265) (0.324)

age -0.00447 -0.0146*** -0.00287 -0.00319

(0.0109) (0.00227) (0.00371) (0.00968)

education -0.130 -0.0930 0.132 -0.130

(0.109) (0.0743) (0.0937) (0.107)

employed 0.0682 0.225** 0.0565 0.0233

(0.154) (0.108) (0.143) (0.142)

Constant 3.885*** 3.476*** 1.748*** 3.644***

(0.478) (0.338) (0.312) (0.578)


Number of

location2

4 4 4 4

R2 0.0377 0.0874 0.0260 0.110


*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

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Table 9. Perceptions of Agency (Rebels vs. Civilians in the Conflict Zone)

To what extent do you AGREE with the

following statements?

FSA

fighters

Syrian civilians

(constant) N

I would go somewhere safer if I had family,

friends to help me

-0.467***

(0.059)

2.531***

(0.241) 144

I would go somewhere safer if I had money to do

so

-0.594***

(0.075)

2.475***

(0.110) 139

I would go somewhere safer if traveling were less

dangerous

-0.241

(0.266)

2.342***

(0.217) 132

I am staying here to protect my family -0.179

(0.175)

2.846***

(0.275) 138

I am staying here to protect my home, business,

property

0.0875

(0.131)

2.913***

(0.228) 142

I am staying here to fight 0.666***

(0.128)

2.841***

(0.264) 145

I am staying here to help others who are fighting

in the war

0.583**

(0.231)

2.963***

(0.144) 146


*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

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Table 10. Risk Tolerance by Group

(9.a) (9.b) (9.c) (9.d)

VARIABLES I’m not afraid

to take risks

I avoid risks

whenever

possible

Risk

Game

1

Risk

Game

2

fsafighter 0.577*** -0.301*** 0.609 -0.0350

(0.133) (0.0218) (0.507) (0.221)

islamist 0.963*** -0.629***

(0.0785) (0.0276)

civilian 0.0742*** 0.318 0.444 -0.250

(0.0232) (0.243) (0.546) (0.239)

exfighter 0.170* 0.381*** -0.0419 -0.810***

(0.0920) (0.0388) (0.121) (0.0199)

female 0.0397 -0.244* -0.126 -0.398*

(0.391) (0.141) (0.559) (0.235)

age 0.000128 0.00435 -0.00132 -0.00376

(0.00852) (0.00645) (0.00587) (0.00689)

education 0.211** 0.0127 -0.0581 -0.00451

(0.0874) (0.119) (0.156) (0.0644)

employed 0.267*** -0.312** 0.313 0.220

(0.0923) (0.135) (0.329) (0.204)

Constant 1.579*** 2.873*** 2.965*** 4.047***

(0.221) (0.315) (0.477) (0.296)

Constant group Refugees Refugees Refugees Refugees


Number of location2 4 4 4 4

R2 0.0899 0.0758 0.0325 0.0355


*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

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Table 11. Risk Tolerance By Location

(1) (2)

VARIABLES revrisk1 revrisk2

aleppo 1.298*** 0.940***

(0.319) (0.310)

idlib -0.212 0.375

(0.306) (0.309)

kilis 0.155 0.853***

(0.326) (0.299)

female -0.642** -0.604*

(0.277) (0.343)

age -0.00373 -0.00516

(0.0102) (0.00873)

education -0.119 -0.0231

(0.130) (0.138)

employed 0.231 0.175

(0.285) (0.262)

Constant 3.185*** 3.352***

(0.472) (0.462)

Constant group Ex-FSA Ex-FSA

Observations 218 214

R2 0.176 0.0727


*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

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Table 12. Victimization by Property Destruction

(11.a) (11.b) (11.c) (11.d)

VARIABLES Home

damaged

Home destroyed Home

confiscated

Business

damaged

fsafighter -2.149*** -1.401*** -2.325*** -1.324***

(0.450) (0.425) (0.660) (0.467)

islamist -0.794* -2.241*** 0.645 0.144

(0.414) (0.549) (0.420) (0.420)

civilian -1.934*** -1.026*** -2.303*** -1.338***

(0.409) (0.380) (0.591) (0.434)

exfighter -0.548 -0.0563 -0.222 0.349

(0.412) (0.404) (0.437) (0.420)

female -0.121 -0.228 -0.0586 -0.873

(0.469) (0.450) (0.646) (0.599)

age -0.0256* -0.0110 -0.00231 0.00524

(0.0149) (0.0145) (0.0171) (0.0149)

education 0.173 -0.220 0.0978 0.428**

(0.195) (0.198) (0.228) (0.204)

employed 0.314 0.419 0.737 0.852*

(0.381) (0.400) (0.463) (0.441)

Constant 0.629 0.634 -1.404 -2.285***

(0.748) (0.753) (0.871) (0.808)

Constant Group Refugees Refugees Refugees Refugees


LL -166.4 -161.4 -125.7 -155.5

Standard errors in parentheses

*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

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Table 13. Victimization by Loss of Family Members

(11.e) (11.f) (11.g)

VARIABLES Family injured Family killed Family missing

fsafighter 0.105 0.605 0.434

(0.382) (0.385) (0.382)

islamist 0.981** 1.837*** 0.386

(0.444) (0.468) (0.406)

civilian 0.249 0.747** 0.00786

(0.365) (0.369) (0.360)

exfighter -0.0514 1.920*** 0.955**

(0.403) (0.473) (0.421)

female -0.0513 -0.107 0.0883

(0.400) (0.401) (0.396)

age 0.00792 -0.0363*** 0.0261*

(0.0135) (0.0140) (0.0135)

education -0.0250 0.150 0.0157

(0.183) (0.195) (0.183)

employed 0.709** -0.0751 -0.109

(0.350) (0.378) (0.352)

Constant -0.551 0.401 -0.764

(0.694) (0.726) (0.692)



LL -184.6 -170.1 -188.9


*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

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Table 14. Victimization by Loss of Friends

(11.h) (11.i) (11.j)

VARIABLES Friends injured Friends killed Friends missing

fsafighter 0.914** 0.573 0.259

(0.400) (0.390) (0.393)

islamist 2.376*** 1.968*** 1.685***

(0.556) (0.548) (0.550)

civilian 0.272 0.737** -0.373

(0.366) (0.375) (0.364)

exfighter 28.27 1.699*** 0.331

(159,302) (0.499) (0.423)

female 0.231 -0.270 -0.000217

(0.423) (0.408) (0.402)

age -0.00418 0.00766 -0.0195

(0.0154) (0.0150) (0.0138)

education 0.426* 0.0609 -0.126

(0.227) (0.207) (0.192)

employed 0.622 0.342 0.328

(0.418) (0.385) (0.370)

Constant -1.592** -0.503 1.058

(0.806) (0.756) (0.728)



LL -136.7 -155.6 -170.8


*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

19

Table 15. Sectarian Grievances

(1) (2) (5) (7) (3) (4)

Close to

People

of same

religion

Close to

Sunni

Muslims

Close to

Alawites

Close to

Assad

Supporters

Dictator

Game:

To

Assad

territory

Dictator

Game:

To

Assad

Supporter

fsafighter -0.532*** -0.00244 0.419 0.143*** 26.58 -0.830

(0.158) (0.233) (0.292) (0.0335) (28.08) (1.512)

islamist 0.671*** 0.218*** -0.304*** -0.124***

(0.0447) (0.0478) (0.0404) (0.00707)

civilian -0.547** -0.487*** 0.507*** 0.263*** 39.74*** 19.50***

(0.275) (0.160) (0.160) (0.101) (9.562) (7.488)

exfighter -0.168** 0.0113 0.436*** 0.0388*** 83.72*** 12.13***

(0.0782) (0.0879) (0.0259) (0.0115) (5.972) (2.698)

female 0.231 -0.0693 -0.0565 0.146*** 13.59 -8.926**

(0.189) (0.191) (0.238) (0.0442) (18.75) (3.590)

age -0.000951 -0.00723 -0.00347 0.00337** -0.796 -0.131

(0.00569) (0.00640) (0.00528) (0.00131) (0.537) (0.185)

education -0.0343 0.00570 0.110 -0.0145 4.651 1.480

(0.0847) (0.107) (0.0890) (0.0229) (12.91) (7.019)

employed 0.210 -0.314 -0.0302 0.0230 -11.05 4.451

(0.154) (0.192) (0.0676) (0.119) (26.18) (4.146)

Constant 2.270*** 3.891*** 1.215*** 1.039*** 28.59 -1.311

(0.389) (0.377) (0.0722) (0.165) (41.13) (14.10)

N 280 278 278 275 216 215

R2 0.130 0.0668 0.0370 0.0324 0.007 0.0202


*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

20

Table 16. Willingness to Reconcile with Assad Supporters

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

Live

together

in a

common

state

Support

the same

political

leaders

Support

the same

political

parties

Live

peacefully

in same

towns

Live

peacefully

as

neighbors

Respect

each

other’s

Religion

fsafighter 0.229 -0.492* -0.260 0.0831 0.0649 -0.381**

(0.165) (0.281) (0.226) (0.122) (0.0765) (0.191)

islamist 0.167 -0.552*** -0.745*** -0.609*** 0.156*** -0.00273

(0.108) (0.0518) (0.0861) (0.0488) (0.0363) (0.141)

civilian 0.260*** -0.238*** -0.197*** -0.0379 0.0653 -0.148***

(0.0127) (0.0148) (0.0406) (0.188) (0.110) (0.0382)

exfighter 0.611*** -0.230*** -0.168* -0.522*** -0.494*** 0.161

(0.107) (0.0797) (0.0965) (0.0724) (0.0501) (0.144)

female 0.807 -0.0344 -0.213 -0.174 -0.149 0.204

(0.636) (0.323) (0.504) (0.242) (0.211) (0.804)

age -0.00242 0.0115 0.00728 0.0141*** 0.00784*** -0.00360

(0.00508) (0.00901) (0.00554) (0.00459) (0.00139) (0.00419)

education 0.117 -0.120 -0.221*** -0.00926 0.00163 0.146

(0.0748) (0.138) (0.0622) (0.102) (0.0750) (0.163)

employed -0.281* 0.424** 0.306* -0.208* -0.286* -0.177*

(0.150) (0.210) (0.171) (0.118) (0.146) (0.106)

Constant 2.007*** 1.845*** 2.412*** 2.984*** 3.313*** 2.081***

(0.293) (0.302) (0.193) (0.309) (0.135) (0.247)

N 284 282 284 283 283 280

R2 0.0713 0.0480 0.0571 0.0887 0.0165 0.0273


*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

21

Table 17. Willingness to Reconcile with Assad Supporters, Continued

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

VARIABLES Treat

Each other

fairly

Trust one

another

Work

Together

In

business

Be close

friends

Forgive

wrongs

Of the

past

Avoid

another war

fsafighter -0.274 0.428** -0.0121 0.0129 -0.259* 0.452***

(0.236) (0.172) (0.0295) (0.237) (0.144) (0.0917)

islamist -0.436*** 0.230*** 0.201*** 0.109*** -0.273*** 0.450***

(0.137) (0.0552) (0.0188) (0.0255) (0.00508) (0.0464)

civilian -0.177*** 0.0727 -0.172** -0.227** -0.206*** 0.410**

(0.0350) (0.119) (0.0794) (0.0889) (0.0681) (0.182)

exfighter -0.373** -0.00733 -0.110* -0.140* 0.238*** 0.0738

(0.146) (0.0502) (0.0574) (0.0792) (0.0226) (0.0678)

female 0.288 -0.147 -0.307*** -0.227* -0.308*** -0.0542

(0.786) (0.374) (0.119) (0.127) (0.0673) (0.253)

age -0.00937* 0.0104 0.00957* -0.00833 0.00486 0.00613

(0.00555) (0.00763) (0.00503) (0.00912) (0.00542) (0.00457)

education 0.0947 0.0851 -0.0104 0.0643 -0.00234 0.0541

(0.138) (0.0836) (0.150) (0.147) (0.0243) (0.113)

employed -0.0818 -0.244 0.0589 0.0700 0.156 0.203

(0.251) (0.194) (0.275) (0.251) (0.193) (0.155)

Constant 2.624*** 1.843*** 2.576*** 2.399*** 1.920*** 2.291***

(0.326) (0.212) (0.189) (0.742) (0.236) (0.279)

Observations 275 283 276 280 284 284

Number of

location2

4 4 4 4 4 4

R2 0.0140 0.0394 0.0337 0.0362 0.0176 0.00939


*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

22

Table 18. Political Grievances

(H14.a) (H14.b) (H14.c) (H14.d) (H15.a)

VARIABLES Support

military

victory

Support

negotiating

For peace

Support

Unified Syrian

State

Want more

regional

autonomy

No Amnesty

for war crimes

fsafighter 1.127*** -0.925*** -0.0929** 0.300*** 0.182**

(0.127) (0.249) (0.0454) (0.0310) (0.0799)

islamist 1.586*** -1.624*** -0.267*** -0.533*** 0.277***

(0.106) (0.146) (0.00817) (0.104) (0.0166)

civilian 0.157*** 0.0633 -0.134** 0.722*** 0.0827

(0.0198) (0.132) (0.0556) (0.158) (0.0831)

exfighter 0.484*** -0.482*** -0.280*** -0.130 0.280***

(0.102) (0.154) (0.0245) (0.102) (0.0211)

female 0.469 -0.328 0.251*** 0.0225 -0.168**

(0.631) (0.851) (0.0322) (0.588) (0.0801)

age 0.000975 0.00829 -0.00106 0.00207 -0.00358**

(0.00788) (0.00661) (0.00495) (0.00447) (0.00172)

education 0.0535 -0.0287 0.0482 -0.0780 0.0225

(0.0436) (0.0805) (0.0395) (0.0798) (0.0177)

employed -0.0311 -0.00534 0.0445 -0.0762 -0.134

(0.141) (0.108) (0.0895) (0.220) (0.0930)

Constant 2.283*** 2.556*** 3.671*** 2.500*** 2.885***

(0.205) (0.194) (0.122) (0.176) (0.0638)

Observations 282 279 283 284 282

Number of

location2

4 4 4 4 4

R2 0.131 0.142 0.0164 0.0891 0.0269


*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

23

Table 19. Reasons Given for Fighting (Active, Former FSA and Islamists)

Why did you join this group? Active FSA Former FSA Islamists

Reasons

given

Main

reason

Reasons

given

Main

reason

Reasons

given

Main

reason

I support the goals of the group 62.3 17.8 78.0 50.0 100.0 50.0

I felt inspired by people in the

group 52.5 1.8 92.0 4.0 61.2 6.8

Because all my friends joined 47.5 3.6 84.0 10.0 44.9

All my family wanted me to

join 16.4 1.8 8.0 4.1

Because I wanted people to

respect me 9.8 1.8 0.0 0.0

To defend my community 70.5 12.5 54.0 26.0 83.7 18.2

Because Assad must be

defeated 68.9 12.5 74.0 89.8

To take revenge against

Assad's forces 78.7 44.6 84.0 8.0 79.6

I didn't want to join, but was

forced to 4.9 1.8 0.0 0.0

I joined because I needed

money 0.0 1.8 0.0 0.0

I joined to fight for Islam, to

build an Islamic state - - - - 71.4 25.0

I joined to get training, combat

experience - - - - 71.4

Fatwas by the Ulama led me to

fight - - - - 63.3

N 61 56 50 50 49 44

24

Table 20. Reasons Given for Not Joining Other Groups (Islamists Only)

Why did you join this group as opposed to FSA or other rebel groups? Reasons given

All my friends joined this group 40.8

I feel closer to people in this group than other groups 49.0

I support the goals of this group more than other groups 46.9

I am inspired by the leaders of this group 65.3

This group provides better training, support than other groups 59.2

This group cares more about their fighters than other groups 46.9

This group provides better financial support than other groups 26.5

If something happens to me, this group will help my family 55.1

This is the only group that truly fights for Islam 63.3

This is the strongest rebel group in Syria now 10.2

N 49

Table 21. Reasons given for Quitting FSA (ex-FSA fighters only)

Why are you no longer fighting? Reasons given Main reason

I was wounded and am no longer able to fight 34.0 14.0

I had to take care of my family 28.0 12.0

The group no longer wanted me to fight with them 0.0

My family wanted me to leave 24.0 2.0

I decided I no longer supported the group's goals 8.0 4.0

I left because there was a lack of discipline in the group 44.0 16.0

I left because we were no longer working as a team 36.0 4.0

Fighting became too emotionally stressful for me 0.0

I felt it was impossible to win, so I stopped fighting 56.0 44.0

I decided fighting was not worth the risks I was taking 14.0 2.0

The risks of dying outweigh the benefits of victory 12.0 2.0

N 50 50

25

Table 22. Reasons given for Leaving Syria (Refugees only)

Why did you decide to leave Syria? Reasons for Leaving Main reason

Too dangerous to stay 56.7 40.7

People threatened me that I should leave 35.0 11.9

My family convince me to leave 46.7 6.8

My friends convinced me to leave 38.3 5.1

Most of my neighbors also left 31.7 1.7

I had no other place in Syria to stay 26.7 1.7

Government forces destroyed my home 31.7 5.1

The costs of living inside Syria became too high 31.7 5.1

I ran out of money and could no longer stay 16.7 5.1

Government forces took over my town 43.3 13.6

Rebel groups took control of my town 13.3 3.4

N 60 59

Table 24. Reasons Given for Staying in Syria (Civilians in Syria only)

To what extent do you agree with the following statements? % agree N

I have no other option but to stay here 66.3 80

I would go somewhere safer if I had family, friends to help me 47.6 84

I would go somewhere safer if I had money to do so 42.2 83

I would go somewhere safer if travel were less dangerous 34.9 76

I am staying to protect my family 51.3 80

I am staying to protect my home/property 59.0 83

I am staying to fight 56.5 85

I am staying to help those who are fighting 62.4 85

26

Table 25. Why do you think other people join your group? (Former FSA and Islamists)

Why do you think other people join your group? Former FSA Islamists

Reasons

given

Reasons

given

Main

reason

They support the goals of the group 70.0 85.7 33.3

They felt inspired by people in the group 80.0 73.5 6.3

Because all their friends joined 48.0 34.7

Their families wanted them to join 0.0 8.2

Because they wanted respect 0.0 2.0

To defend their communities 64.0 98.0 20.8

Because Assad must be defeated 44.0 93.9 4.2

To take revenge against Assad's forces 70.0 89.8 14.6

They didn't want to join, but were forced 0.0 2.0

They joined because they needed money 0.0 0.0

They joined to fight for Islam, to build an Islamic

state 24.0 83.7 20.8

To get training, combat experience 10.0 69.4

N 50 49 48

Documents

Fight or Flight in Civil War? Evidence from Rebel ... · Areas of Rebel Control in Aleppo at the time of our study . 3 Figure 2. Sampling Locations in Aleppo . 4 Figure 3. Sampling