Electric “Grid” Savings and Non-Electric Benefits for Residential HVAC-effected UES Measures

Electric “Grid” Savingsand

Non-Electric Benefitsfor

Residential HVAC-effected UES Measures

Regional Technical ForumMarch 20, 2013

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Overview• For residential measures that effect heating and cooling usage:

– RTF electric savings estimates should be reliable from an electric utility planning perspective (i.e. “Grid Savings”).

• Measured Savings are considered reliable.– There appear to be non-electric benefits the RTF can account for in

its cost-effectiveness tests.• Measured Savings < Modeled Savings.

• Primary questions: – Is the following proposed framework for “Grid Savings” and NEB’s

correct?– How should RTF monetize non-electric benefits?

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Framework

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Modeled Savings (“The Whole Pie”)• Definition: Estimated electric energy savings; based on physics (lower UA = lower heating energy use).

• Example: Model assumes 100% electrically heated houses and “typical” usage.

Modeled Savings

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Model Correction

Components of Modeled Savings

Model Correction• Definition: Adjustment to modeled savings to account for non-typical usage.

• Example: Partial Occupancy; occupants are away for the winter months and leave t-stat at a very low setting.

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Measured Electric Sav-

ings


Measured Electric Savings (a.k.a “Grid Savings”)• Definition: Electric energy savings for the population, measured through submetering or billing studies.

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Fuel Savings

Increased Com-

fort


Non-Electric Benefits

Non-Electric Benefits• Definition: Portion of the Modeled Savings that apply to the following two non-electric components:

• Fuel Savings (Non-electric)- Example: Occupant stops using their wood stove in the efficient-case, in favor of the electric heating system.- Example: Occupant continues using their wood stove, but uses less wood because of the lower house heat loss.

• Increased Comfort- Example: Occupants operate their house at a warmer (winter) and cooler (summer) temperature in the efficient-

case.

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Measured Electric Sav-

ings

Model Correction

Fuel Sav-ings

Increased Comfort



Not to Scale – These will vary by program, region, modeling method, etc.

𝑀𝑜𝑑𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑑𝑆𝑎𝑣𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑠=𝑀𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑒𝑑𝐸𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐 𝑆𝑎𝑣𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑠+𝑀𝑜𝑑𝑒𝑙𝐶𝑜𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛+𝑁𝑜𝑛𝐸𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐 𝐵𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑓𝑖𝑡𝑠

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Examples• DHP• Weatherization

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ID Item Source/Method Heating Zone 1 Heating Zone 3

A Modeled Savings Metering Study 4000 4000



B Measured Electric Savings Billing Study All Sites 2300 300




C Measured Electric Savings + Non-electric Fuel Savings Billing Study Filtered for No

Supplemental Fuel 2900 2700






Non-electric Benefits

Fuel Savings C – B 600 2400






Non-electric Benefits

Fuel Savings C – B 600 2400

Increased Comfort A - C 1100 1300

Using DHP as an Example

Grid Savings (kWh)Non-Electric

Benefits(need to monetize)Notes: 1. All values in kWh/yr.

2. Values and method are for example only – we’ll discuss DHP measure specifics later.3. Model Correction is assumed to be 0 kWh/yr based on design of Metering Study.

Model Correction

Measured Electric Savings

Model Correction

Fuel Savings

Increased Comfort



Fuel Savings

Fuel Savings

Increased Comfort

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ID Item Source/Method

A Modeled SavingsSEEM runs

calibrated to RBSA “post” t-stat setting; houses with “good” electric & gas bills only

T-stat: 68°F

pre & post

B Modeled Savings – Increased ComfortSEEM runs

calibrated to RBSA “pre” and “post” t-stat setting; houses with “good” electric & gas bills only

Tstat: 65°F pre68°F post

C Model Correction Rough estimate based on RBSA data% of houses with electric & gas heat only and with poor PRISM R-square

D NEB Fuel SavingsRough estimate based on 2 sources

i. RBSA: % of heat supplied by “other” fuels in electric heat homesii. DHP: % of fuel savings in the DHP measure

Measured Electric Savings B – C – D

Non Electric Benefits

Fuel Savings D




T-stat: 68°F

pre & post







T-stat: 68°F

pre & post








T-stat: 68°F

pre & post










T-stat: 68°F

pre & post








Non Electric Benefits

Fuel Savings D

Increased Comfort A – B




T-stat: 68°F

pre & post








Using Weatherization as an Example

Note: This method is shown for illustration of the framework only; it has not been reviewed by the RTF and may not meet the RTF’s guidelines.




T-stat: 68°F

pre & post


Model Correction

Fuel Savings

Model Correction

Fuel Savings


Increased Comfort

Fuel Savings


Model Correction

Fuel Savings

Increased Comfort

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Next Steps

• In both examples, Non-Electric Benefits are quantified in kWh’s.

• We need to then monetize the Non-Electric Benefits

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Model Correction

Fuel Savings

Increased Comfort



ProCost InputsData Set NameMeasure Index NameCosts must be denominated in the same year as 'Input Cost Reference Year' =2006

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8Input Data

Category NameMeasure

NameSavings (kwh/yr) Life (yrs)

Capital Cost

Annual O&M

Shape Pointer

Non-E Val ($/yr)

Measure A Measure A 500 20 385$ 10$ ResDHWMeasure B Measure B 300 20 200$ (5)$ FLAT 15Measure C Measure C 150 20 35$ -$ ResDHW -5

ProCost Version: ProCost 2.3 - Build 257fRun Time: Friday, 16 March , 2012 at 12:55 PM

Data Source(s)

kWh/$ Conversi

on

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How to Monetize the Non-Electric benefits?• Option 1: Convert each Non-Electric Benefits into Dollars

– Non-Electric Fuel Savings• Convert kWh savings to cords of wood savings to dollar savings

– Issue: Many assumptions needed (Btu/cord; efficiency of stove, $/cord, pollution benefit, etc.)

– Increased Comfort• Value at the retail cost of electricity

– Occupant chose to pay for more electricity, so value of comfort should be at least equivalent to the price of electricity, if not more.

– Issue: Split between Increased Comfort and Non-Electric Fuel Savings is unknown.

• Option 2: Value both Non-Electric Benefits at the retail cost of electricity– Same logic as for Increased Comfort above– The “many assumptions” for converting kWh savings to cords of wood to dollar savings

would likely be “calibrated” to this value.• (Value of wood calibrated to be no lower than value of electricity.)


Model Correction

Fuel Savings

Increased Comfort



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Decisions

1. Adopt the presented framework for quantifying Measured Electric Savings and NEB’s?– Current Method

• NEB’s are not included in the cost-effectiveness test.

– Proposed Method• Quantify and Monetize NEB’s according to framework.• Include in cost-effectiveness test.

2. How to Monetize NEB’s?– Option 1: Convert each Non-Electric Benefits into Dollars; or – Option 2: Value both Non-Electric Benefits at the retail cost of electricity– Other Options


Model Correction

Fuel Savings

Increased Comfort



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Background Slides

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Related slides from the January 2014 RTF Meeting (“SEEM 94 Calibration to RBSA Data” Presentation)

Documents

Electric “Grid” Savings and Non-Electric Benefits for Residential HVAC-effected UES Measures