Economic and Market Report Q3 2016 - acea.be · In its autumn forecast, the ... The car market in the United States remained stable during the first nine ... Of which the US 10,794,739

Economic and Market Report

EU Automotive Industry Quarter 3 2016

December 2016

ACEA Economic and Market Report: Quarter 3 2016 – December 2016 1

CONTENTS EU economic outlook .................................................................................................................... 2

Passenger cars ............................................................................................................................... 4

Registrations ............................................................................................................................. 4

World ..................................................................................................................................... 4

The European Union ............................................................................................................... 7

Registrations by alternative fuel type .................................................................................. 9

Diesel penetration ............................................................................................................. 11

Production ............................................................................................................................... 12

World ................................................................................................................................... 12

The European Union ............................................................................................................. 15

Trade ....................................................................................................................................... 16

Imports ................................................................................................................................. 17

Exports ................................................................................................................................ 18

Commercial vehicles .................................................................................................................... 19

Registrations ........................................................................................................................... 19

The European Union ............................................................................................................ 19

Global production outlook ....................................................................................................... 24

Trade ....................................................................................................................................... 26

Imports ................................................................................................................................. 27

Exports ................................................................................................................................ 28


EU ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

The European economy is expected to continue to grow at a moderate rate in the near future,

although various barriers to growth remain, including (geo)political uncertainty, the fragile

situation of global trade and weak economic growth outside the EU. In its autumn forecast, the

European Commission predicts EU GDP growth to be 1.8% in 2016, 1.6% in 2017 and 1.8% in 2018.

Figure 1: EU GDP growth forecast (in %)

Source: EUROPEAN COMMISSION, DG ECFIN


Table 1: European Economic Forecast Autumn 2016

EU FORECAST 2016 2017 2018

GDP GROWTH (%, YOY) 1.8 1.6 1.8

INFLATION (%, YOY) 0.3 1.6 1.7

UNEMPLOYMENT (%) 8.6 8.3 7.9

Source: EUROPEAN COMMISSION, DG ECFIN

Inflation in the European Union is expected to rise above 1%, as an increase in oil prices seems to

be imminent. According to the Commission’s latest forecast, EU inflation will rise from 0.3% this

year to 1.6% in 2017 and 1.7% in 2018.

Job creation will continue to benefit from moderate growth of wages and domestic demand

expansion, further stimulated by the fiscal policy measures and structural reforms that have been

implemented in some member states. Consequently, unemployment rates in the EU are forecasted

to fall relatively fast over the next few years: from 8.6% in 2016 to 8.3% in 2017 and 7.9% in 2018.


PASSENGER CARS

REGISTRATIONS

WORLD

Demand for passenger cars in Europe1 improved noticeably during the first nine months of 2016

(+4.9%), accounting for 23.6% of the global market. The EU region contributed significantly to the

positive global picture, mainly thanks to better macroeconomic conditions which directly improved

internal demand. With 11.2 million passenger cars sold in the EU, results were 8.0% higher than in

the same period last year. This represents a solid and rather consistent performance, especially

considering the fact that the first three quarters of 2015 were already strong. However, some risks

remain, also following the Brexit vote, and this uncertainty will inevitably continue to affect the car

market.

From January to September 2016, Russian demand dropped (‐15.1%) due to very high inflation and

the resulting decline in consumer confidence. Recent months, however, have shown a relative

stabilisation and also the Ukrainian market started to show signs of a possible recovery, with car

registrations up 53.4% during first three quarters. Although the first half of the year saw positive

momentum, Turkey returned to negative territory (‐2.3%) following the failed coup in July.

Nine months into 2016, Japanese passenger car sales were down 4.2% compared to 2015, because

of Japan’s weak domestic economy and consumption. For this reason, the Japanese government

decided to delay the consumption tax hike planned for April 2017 to October 2019. The downturn

in Japan was partially offset by the growth observed in South Korean sales, which went up 3.1%

during the same period.

The car market in the United States remained stable during the first nine months of the year, with

about 11 million passenger cars sold so far in 2016, accounting for 19.3% of the global market.

1 Includes Belarus, Bosnia‐Herzegovina, Kazakhstan, Macedonia, Russia, Serbia, Turkey, Ukraine and

Uzbekistan


Over the first three quarters of 2016, passenger car demand in South America contracted by 15.1%

to 2.3 million units, as a result of high inflation, currency devaluations and low consumer

confidence. Brazil accounted for more than 90% of the volume loss in the region, with a

contradiction of 362,697 units or a 22.6% fall compared to the same period in 2015.

Chinese passenger car sales did increase (+14.7%), partially driven by the remarkable performance

of the SUV segment. The Chinese market reached 15.5 million units sold and accounted for more

than a quarter of global passenger car sales.

Looking at the other emerging markets, passenger car demand in India increased significantly

during the third quarter after a slow start of 2016. Indian sales reached 2.3 million units, up 10.5%

compared to first nine months of 2015.

Globally, 56 million passenger cars were sold so far in 2016, 4.4% more than in the same period one

year ago.


Table 2: World new passenger car registrations

JAN‐SEP 20162 JAN‐SEP 2015 % change 16/15 % share 2016

EUROPE 13,193,634 12,576,446 +4.9 23.6

EU3 11,243,263 10,413,745 +8.0 20.1

EFTA 364,003 362,995 +0.3 0.6

RUSSIA 944,736 1,112,497 ‐15.1 1.7

TURKEY 489,355 500,905 ‐2.3 0.9

UKRAINE 42,363 27,622 +53.4 0.1

OTHERS‐EUROPE4 109,914 158,682 ‐30.7 0.2

NORTH AMERICA5 12,915,701 12,866,230 +0.4 23.1

Of which the US 10,794,739 10,890,268 ‐0.9 19.3

SOUTH AMERICA 2,266,088 2,668,260 ‐15.1 4.0

Of which Brazil 1,240,966 1,603,663 ‐22.6 2.2

ASIA 24,772,235 22,608,685 +9.6 44.2

CHINA 15,529,653 13,541,045 +14.7 27.7

JAPAN 3,138,034 3,277,320 ‐4.2 5.6

INDIA 2,289,404 2,071,621 +10.5 4.1

SOUTH KOREA 1,108,662 1,074,834 +3.1 2.0

OTHERS‐ASIA6 2,706,482 2,643,865 +2.4 4.8

MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA 2,869,995 2,925,357 ‐1.9 5.1

WORLD 56,017,653 53,644,978 +4.4 100.0

Source: IHS MARKIT, ACEA

2 Provisional figures

3 Data for Malta not available

4 Includes Belarus, Bosnia‐Herzegovina, Kazakhstan, Macedonia, Serbia and Uzbekistan

5 Based on production type

6 Includes Hong Kong, Taiwan and all the other South Asian countries, excluding India


THE EUROPEAN UNION

The European passenger car market grew significantly in September 2016, bringing the year‐to‐

date total volume to 11.2 million units, up 8.0% compared to the same period one year ago. In

volume terms, 2016 saw the highest September total on record to date.

The overall increase during the first three quarters of 2016 showed the market’s ongoing recovery,

with all five big markets posting solid growth rates. Growth was especially strong in Southern

Europe, where the need for fleet renewal had become particularly acute. Italy (+17.4%) and Spain

(+11.5%) recorded double‐digit growth over the period, followed by Germany (+6.1%), France

(+5.7%) and the United Kingdom (+2.6%).

Table 3: Top 5 – New passenger car registrations in the EU

JAN‐SEP 2016 JAN‐SEP 2015 % change 16/15

GERMANY 2,555,783 2,407,938 +6.1

UNITED KINGDOM 2,150,495 2,096,886 +2.6

FRANCE 1,502,450 1,421,435 +5.7

ITALY 1,406,035 1,197,274 +17.4

SPAIN 874,220 783,918 +11.5

EU7 11,243,263 10,413,745 +8.0

Source: ACEA

7 Data for Malta not available


Figure 2: New passenger car registrations in the EU | 12‐month trend

Source: ACEA


Registrations by alternative fuel type

Over the first three quarters of 2016, demand for alternative fuel vehicles (AFV) in the EU grew by

4.7%, totalling 440,238 units. AFVs represented almost 4% of total passenger car registrations.

However, results were diverse among different vehicle categories. On the one hand, registrations

of new electrically chargeable (ECV) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) continued their positive

momentum, posting double‐digit percentage gains both in the third quarter (+20.2% and +29.2%

respectively) and over the first nine months of 2016 (+18.9% and +27.1%). Growth in the ECV

segment was particularly supported by plug‐in electric cars (+20.5%), which represented more than

half of all ECV registrations. Demand for cars powered by propane, ethanol or natural gas (NGV),

on the other hand, fell by 22.8% so far in 2016, continuing the trend of the first half of the year. The

main reason for this drop in demand is the contraction of the Italian market, which accounted for

the majority of these vehicles.

Among the EU’s major markets, Spain (+59.2%), the UK (+24.3%) and Germany (+15.0%) saw

substantial increases in AFV registrations over the period. Growth in these countries was fully

driven by demand for electric and hybrid electric vehicles. Italy performed less well than in 2015 (‐

14.6%), mainly due to the sharp decline in registrations of propane and gas‐fuelled cars, which

where only partly offset by increases in the sales of electric (+16.3%) and hybrid electric (+48.8%)

cars. France only showed a modest uplift (+2.2%) in total AFV registrations, due to decreases in the

HEV and LPG segments. However, France still accounted for the second largest number of HEV

registrations (35,513 units) after the United Kingdom.

Among the EU+EFTA countries, Norway maintained its leading position with the largest number

of ECVs registered over the period: 33,386 units, up 34.2% compared to the first nine months of

2015.


Table 4: New passenger car registrations in the EU by alternative fuel type


ECV8 105,241 88,545 +18.9

Of which BEV 45,403 38,502 +17.9

Of which PHEV 58,070 48,196 +20.5

HEV9 200,854 158,012 +27.1

Other AFV10 134,143 173,777 ‐22.8

Total AFV 440,238 420,334 +4.7

Source: ACEA

Figure 3: Top 10 ‐ New alternative fuel car registrations in EU+EFTA | Jan‐Sep 2016

Source: ACEA

8 Electrically chargeable vehicles (ECV): battery electric (BEV), extended‐range electric (EREV), fuel cell

electric (FCEV) and plug‐in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV)

9 Hybrid electric vehicles (HEV): full and mild hybrids

10 Alternative fuel vehicles other than electric: natural gas (NGV), LPG‐fuelled and ethanol (E85) vehicles


Diesel penetration

So far in 2016, 49.8% of all new passenger cars registered in Western Europe ran on diesel, about

two percentage points less than in the same period last year. In the EU‐15, diesel’s market share

fell from 52.0% to 50.2% of total registrations during the first nine months of the year.

Results were diverse across Western Europe: diesel’s market share increased slightly in Denmark,

Switzerland, Italy, the UK and Austria, while notable declines were observed in Norway, Greece,

Belgium, Spain, the Netherlands, Luxembourg and France.

Table 5: Share of diesel in new passenger cars in Western Europe

JAN‐SEP 2016 JAN‐SEP 2015

AUSTRIA 57.8% 57.6%

BELGIUM 52.3% 59.7%

DENMARK 35.2% 29.8%

FINLAND 33.1% 35.3%

FRANCE 52.5% 58.2%

GERMANY 46.5% 47.7%

GREECE 53.3% 61.9%

IRELAND 70.1% 71.0%

ITALY 56.6% 55.0%

LUXEMBOURG 64.2% 70.0%

NETHERLANDS 18.4% 24.4%

PORTUGAL 64.3% 67.2%

SPAIN 57.0% 63.2%

SWEDEN 51.8% 57.7%

UNITED KINGDOM 48.1% 47.8%

EU‐15 50.2% 52.0%

ICELAND 44.8% 48.0%

NORWAY 30.7% 41.0%

SWITZERLAND 39.7% 37.8%

EFTA 37.0% 39.1%

WESTERN EUROPE 49.8% 51.6%

Source: AAA


PRODUCTION

WORLD

European passenger car production increased (+3.4%) in the first three quarters of 2016, this was

mainly the result of high domestic demand (especially in the EU perimeter). Production in Russia

and Ukraine continued to decrease, although at a lower rate compared to last year.

US output remained stable compared to one year ago (+0.4%) as demand for cars slowed, with

production counting 7 million units so far in 2016.

Through the first three quarters of 2016, passenger car production in South America continued to

drop sharply compared to last year. Between January and September, the region produced around

1.6 million units, 16.4% less than in the same period in 2015. Volume continues to be lost in Brazil

(‐16.9%), where several factors, including high inflation and interest rates, are still affecting

domestic demand and thus production.

Over the first three quarters of 2016, production in China accelerated back into double‐digit growth

(+11.7%), as a result of more stable financial markets and increased demand under the

government’s stimulus policy. China maintained its leading position among passenger car

producers with 14.6 million units, accounting for more than a quarter of global production.

Japanese production declined (‐1.3%) to around 5.7 million units during the first nine months of

2016, still affected by stagnant domestic sales. During the same period, passenger car production

in South Korea contradicted by 3.6%, mainly due to sluggish export demand from South American

and African markets.

From January to September 2016, Thailand and Indonesia posted positive results, with production

up respectively 12.2% and 5.6%. Strong domestic sales and improved exports boosted Indian

production (+5.2%) as well, which totalled 2.6 million units over the same period.

Globally 56.4 million passenger cars were produced during the first nine months of the year, 3.6%

more than in the same period in 2015.


Table 6: World passenger car production

JAN‐SEP 201611 JAN‐SEP 2015 % change 16/15 % share 2016

EUROPE 14,510,277 14,032,579 +3.4 25.7

EU 12,967,626 12,381,168 +4.7 23.0

RUSSIA 818,741 901,311 ‐9.2 1.5

TURKEY 591,612 529,160 +11.8 1.0

UKRAINE 2,099 3,068 ‐31.6 0.0

OTHERS‐EUROPE12 130,199 217,872 ‐40.2 0.2

NORTH AMERICA 10,733,144 10,596,906 +1.3 19.0

Of which the US 7,078,622 7,053,388 +0.4 12.5

SOUTH AMERICA 1,595,107 1,906,914 ‐16.4 2.8

Of which Brazil 1,295,870 1,559,756 ‐16.9 2.3

ASIA 28,269,466 26,740,571 +5.7 50.1

CHINA 14,596,560 13,062,720 +11.7 25.9

JAPAN 5,702,957 5,780,155 ‐1.3 10.1

SOUTH KOREA 2,974,161 3,084,107 ‐3.6 5.3

INDIA 2,626,455 2,497,787 +5.2 4.7

THAILAND 742,151 661,230 +12.2 1.3

INDONESIA 675,139 639,480 +5.6 1.2

OTHERS‐ASIA13 952,043 1,015,092 ‐6.2 1.7

MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA 1,311,679 1,183,880 +10.8 2.3

WORLD 56,419,673 54,460,850 +3.6 100.0

Source: IHS MARKIT, OICA

11 Provisional figures

12 Includes Belarus, Kazakhstan, Serbia and Uzbekistan

13 Includes Taiwan, Australia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines and Vietnam


Figure 4: Top 10 – World passenger car producers

Source: IHS MARKIT, OICA

+11.7

+4.7

+0.4

‐1.3

‐3.6+5.2

‐2.0 +9.0‐16.9

‐9.2

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

China EU US Japan SouthKorea

India Mexico Canada Brazil Russia

Jan‐Sep 2015 Jan‐Sep 2016


THE EUROPEAN UNION

Within the European Union perimeter, passenger car production increased by 4.7% during the first

three quarters of the year, reaching almost 13 million units. The EU accounts for 23.0% of global

passenger car production and is the world’s second largest producer after China.

The main producing countries of Western Europe showed significant growth so far in 2016, all

spurred by continuing growth of domestic demand: France (+10.9%), the UK (+10.5%), Italy

(+8.8%), Spain (+8.4%) and Germany (+1.1%).

Production in Central European countries slowed down over the first nine months of the year. This

was especially the case in Romania (‐8.8%) and Hungary (‐4.0%), while the Czech Republic (+11.8%)

and Poland (+2.9%) contributed positively to the EU’s output increase over the period.

Table 7: Top 10 – Passenger car producers in the EU


GERMANY 4,378,700 4,329,795 +1.1

SPAIN 1,807,921 1,667,198 +8.4

UNITED KINGDOM 1,292,453 1,169,476 +10.5

FRANCE 1,282,000 1,156,000 +10.9

CZECH REPUBLIC 1,088,400 973,127 +11.8

SLOVAKIA 782,781 770,000 +1.7

ITALY 536,726 493,417 +8.8

POLAND 428,700 416,500 +2.9

HUNGARY 322,190 335,630 ‐4.0

ROMANIA 272,183 298,355 ‐8.8

EU 12,967,626 12,381,168 +4.7

Source: OICA


TRADE

From January to September 2016, the EU exported 4 million passenger cars worth €92.6 billion. In

parallel, the value of EU imports strongly increased (+16.6%) during the same period.

EU passenger car exports fell both in value (‐4.0%) and in volume terms (‐3.6%) – although exports

recovered slightly compared to the first quarter, when declines were even more significant.

So far in 2016, the EU generated a trade surplus worth €64.9 billion, down 10.7% compared to the

same period one year ago.

Table 8: EU passenger car trade

Trade in value (€m) JAN‐SEP 2016 JAN‐SEP 2015 % change 16/15

IMPORTS 27,678 23,746 +16.6

EXPORTS 92,595 96,405 ‐4.0

TRADE BALANCE 64,918 72,660 ‐10.7

Trade in volume (units) JAN‐SEP 2016 JAN‐SEP 2015 % change 16/15

IMPORTS 2,083,254 1,805,539 +15.4

EXPORTS 4,031,018 4,182,111 ‐3.6

Source: EUROSTAT


IMPORTS

During the first three quarters of 2016, most passenger cars imported into the EU came from

Turkey and Japan, the latter also accounted for the highest import value (+20.5%). Turkish imports

recovered significantly in both value (+16.9%) and volume terms (+16.8%) over the last few months,

after the first quarter saw serious declines.

Imports from South Korea and the United States also significantly increased over the first nine

months of the year. Together with Japan and Turkey, these countries represented more than 65%

of all EU passenger car imports.

Table 9: Origin of most passenger car imports


WORLD 27,678 23,746 +16.6

JAPAN 6,756 5,608 +20.5

UNITED STATES 5,448 4,938 +10.3

TURKEY 4,351 3,723 +16.9

SOUTH KOREA 3,597 3,254 +10.6

SOUTH AFRICA 2,118 1,706 +24.1

Source: EUROSTAT

Table 10: Origin of most passenger car imports


WORLD 2,083,254 1,805,539 +15.4

TURKEY 448,847 384,347 +16.8

JAPAN 420,348 351,272 +19.7

SOUTH KOREA 306,212 278,684 +9.9

UNITED STATES 190,340 176,620 +7.8

MOROCCO 137,453 115,828 +18.7

Source: EUROSTAT


EXPORTS

Nine months into the year, EU passenger car exports to the United States declined from 908,216

units to 847,245, down 6.7% compared to one year ago. However, the US remained the EU's most

valuable export market for passenger cars, with exports totalling more than €27 billion –

representing about 30% of the total.

Negative results were also recorded in export volumes to China, Turkey and Switzerland. Japan was

the only major export partner to show an increase over the period, both in value (+14.9%) and in

volume terms (+19.9%).

Table 11: Main destinations of EU passenger car exports


WORLD 92,595 96,405 ‐4.0

UNITED STATES 27,183 29,660 ‐8.4

CHINA 14,735 14,109 +4.4

TURKEY 6,117 5,842 +4.7

JAPAN 5,408 4,707 +14.9

SWITZERLAND 5,383 5,801 ‐7.2

Source: EUROSTAT

Table 12: Main destinations of EU passenger car exports


WORLD 4,031,018 4,182,111 ‐3.6

UNITED STATES 847,245 908,216 ‐6.7

TURKEY 412,371 423,046 ‐2.5

CHINA 359,998 373,759 ‐3.7

JAPAN 218,406 182,144 +19.9

SWITZERLAND 208,016 229,025 ‐9.2

Source: EUROSTAT


COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

REGISTRATIONS

THE EUROPEAN UNION

From January to September 2016, demand for new commercial vehicles in the EU continued the

positive momentum from previous months, with September 2016 marking the 21st consecutive

month of growth. The EU market expanded by 13.3% over the period, reaching more than 1.7

million commercial vehicle registrations. Growth was sustained across all segments, but was

especially strong for light commercial vehicles (+13.5%) and trucks (+13.5%).

Looking at the largest markets, Italy saw the highest upturn (+40.2%), followed by Spain (+13.1%),

Germany (+11.3%), France (+10.1%) and the UK14 (+2.9%).

Table 13: New commercial vehicle registrations in the EU | by type


LCV ≤ 3,5t15 1,422,657 1,253,719 13.5%

MHCV > 3,5t16 271,132 238,812 13.5%

MHBC > 3,5t17 29,580 28,648 3.3%

TOTAL CV 1,723,369 1,521,179 13.3%

Source: ACEA

14 MHCV and MHBC categories have been updated to take into account SMMT official quarterly data

15 New light commercial vehicles (LCV) up to 3.5 tonnes

16 New medium and heavy commercial vehicles (MHCV) over 3.5 tonnes

17 New medium and heavy buses and coaches (MHBC) over 3.5 tonnes


Figure 5: New commercial vehicle registrations in the EU big 5 markets

Source: ACEA

FRANCE UK GERMANY ITALY SPAIN

Jan‐Sep 2015 308,335 327,381 237,972 105,617 128,981

Jan‐Sep 2016 339,471 337,003 264,790 148,086 145,838

+10.1% +2.9%

+11.3%

+40.2% +13.1%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000


New light commercial vehicles (LCV) up to 3.5 tonnes

Over the first nine months of 2016, new registrations of light commercial vehicles totalled more

than 1.4 million units, up 13.5% compared when to the same period one year ago. September 2016

marked the 37th consecutive month of growth in the segment, which accounts for the majority of

sales in the EU commercial vehicle market.

All major markets saw demand for vans increase during this period. Italy (+41.5%) posted the

strongest growth, followed by Spain (+13.0%), Germany (+12.9%), France (+9.8%) and the United

Kingdom (+2.7%).

Figure 6: New light commercial vehicle registrations in the EU big 5 markets

Source: ACEA

FRANCE UK GERMANY ITALY SPAIN

Jan‐Sep 2015 272,148 284,161 168,100 92,306 112,162

Jan‐Sep 2016 298,744 291,714 189,795 130,592 126,692

+9.8%+2.7%

+12.9%

+41.5% +13.0%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000


New medium and heavy commercial vehicles (MHCV) over 3.5 tonnes18

Nine months into the year, the EU market showed a double‐digit increase (+13.5%) in the truck

segment, which totalled 271,132 new registrations.

All major markets saw their demand for trucks increase strongly during this period: Italy (+37.2%),

France (+15.5%), Spain (+13.4%), the UK (+10.1%) and Germany (+6.9%).

Noteworthy was the contribution of some of the youngest EU member states, especially Romania

(+41.0%) and Poland (+23.8%) performed very well.

Figure 7: New medium and heavy commercial vehicle registrations in the EU big 5 markets

Source: ACEA

18 Excluding buses & coaches

GERMANY UK FRANCE SPAIN ITALY

Jan‐Sep 2015 65,932 37,011 30,842 14,799 11,402

Jan‐Sep 2016 70,486 38,518 35,609 16,788 15,646

+6.9%

+4.1%+15.5%

+13.4% +37.2%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000


New medium and heavy buses and coaches (MHBC) over 3.5 tonnes

So far in 2016, new bus and coach registrations increased (+3.3%) compared to the same period a

year ago, totalling 29,580 units.

Demand was primarily driven by Spain (+16.7%), Germany (+14.4%) and the United Kingdom

(+9.1%), while France (‐4.2%) and Italy (‐3.2%) saw demand decline over this period.

Figure 8: Top 5 – New medium and heavy bus and coach registrations in the EU | by country

Source: ACEA

UK FRANCE GERMANY SPAIN ITALY

Jan‐Sep 2015 6,209 5,345 3,940 2,020 1,909

Jan‐Sep 2016 6,771 5,118 4,509 2,358 1,848

+9.1%

‐4.2%

+14.4%

+16.7%

‐3.2%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000


GLOBAL PRODUCTION OUTLOOK19

In 2016, European20 commercial vehicle production is expected to grow (+4.3%) and reach around

3.4 million units. This growth will mainly be driven by an increase in domestic demand, especially

in van and truck segments. This upturn is expected to be broadly supported by improving economic

conditions in many parts of the Eurozone, which should also contribute to improving consumer

confidence.

Commercial vehicle production in China21 closely follows market demand. Hence, fuelled by

recovering internal demand Chinese output is projected to further rise (+2.2%), reaching around

5.8 million units by the end of 2016.

Production in North America is also on an upward trajectory, supported by broad economic

recovery and an increase in demand across all commercial vehicle segments. Production is

expected to reach 4.3 million units, which would mean a 7% year‐on‐year increase.

Japanese production is expected to further decline, as domestic sales have been sluggish since the

consumption‐tax increase. This will most likely result in a lower production total of about 1.6 million

units for the whole region22.

South America will probably see its commercial vehicle production fall (‐4.4%) to around 0.6 million

units as a consequence of Brazil’s continuing economic crisis.

Production trends in parts of the Middle East and Africa (MEA) are showing signs of improvement.

As a result, the region is expected to produce around 0.5 million commercial vehicles in 2016, up

13.8% compared to 2015.

19 Commercial vehicle production figures not available on a quarterly basis

20 Includes Turkey and CIS countries

21 Includes Hong Kong and Taiwan

22 Includes Japan and South Korea


Figure 9: World commercial vehicle production | by region23

Source: IHS MARKIT

23 IHS 2016 production forecast

+2.2

+7.0

+4.3

‐0.4

‐3.4

‐4.4+13.8

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

GreaterChina

NorthAmerica

Europe South Asia Japan/Korea SouthAmerica

MiddleEast/Africa

2015 2016


TRADE

Over the first three quarters of 2016, EU exports of light and heavy commercial vehicles have

managed to recover from the sharp declines observed during the first half of the year (now +0.1%

and ‐1.5% respectively), with total exports adding up to around €7.6 billion. A stable result, when

compared to the same period last year.

Despite a significant increase in the total value of commercial vehicle and bus imports (+27.0%),

the EU’s trade balance remained positive over the period, generating a positive trade surplus of

about €2 billion.

Table 14: EU commercial vehicles (CV), buses and coaches (BC) trade | by type

Trade in value (€m) CV up to 5t CV over 5t + BC Total CV + BC

JAN‐SEP 2016

IMPORTS 4,352 1,373 5,726

EXPORTS 2,978 4,621 7,598

TRADE BALANCE ‐1,375 3,247 1,873

JAN‐SEP 2015

IMPORTS 3,392 1,118 4,510

EXPORTS 2,976 4,692 7,668

TRADE BALANCE ‐416 3,574 3,159

% change 16/15

IMPORTS +28.3 +22.9 +27.0

EXPORTS +0.1 ‐1.5 ‐0.9

Source: EUROSTAT


IMPORTS

So far in 2016, most EU commercial vehicle imports originated from Turkey (+18.6%). China came

second with 59,930 units, although imports were down 10.3% compared to last year.

Imports of commercial vehicles from Serbia, Thailand and South Africa increased significantly

during the first nine months of the year, while imports from the United States and especially

Argentina declined considerably.

In total, the EU imported 406,120 commercial vehicles (including buses and coaches) over the first

three quarters of 2016, 11.5% more than last year.

Table 15: Top 10 – Origin of EU commercial vehicle and bus imports


WORLD 406,120 364,407 +11.5

TURKEY 254,335 214,451 +18.6

CHINA 59,930 66,780 ‐10.3

THAILAND 31,539 22,035 +43.1

SOUTH AFRICA 17,592 13,028 +35.0

MOROCCO 14,207 12,953 +9.7

UNITED STATES 6,337 6,832 ‐7.3

SWITZERLAND 4,798 4,092 +17.3

SERBIA 3,120 370 +743.2

ARGENTINA 2,976 5,668 ‐47.5

NORWAY 2,451 2,275 +7.7

Source: EUROSTAT


EXPORTS

From January to September 2016, EU commercial vehicle exports markedly increased (+59.5%)

compared to the first three quarters of 2015. Substantial growth was observed in exports to

Cameroon, Norway and especially Hong Kong, the latter mainly driven by the truck segment.

Exports to Australia decelerated in the third quarter, after the uplift observed in the first semester.

Exports to Ukraine, traditionally a key market for EU commercial vehicle trade, are gaining

momentum again, they were up 42.3% compared to the same period last year.

At the same time, exports to the United States (‐56.3%), Turkey (‐19.5%) and Switzerland (‐1.5%)

all declined during this period.

Table 16: Top 10 – Destinations of EU commercial vehicle and bus exports


WORLD 648,009 406,391 +59.5

HONG KONG 285,041 1,089 ∞

TURKEY 39,816 49,474 ‐19.5

SWITZERLAND 20,963 21,286 ‐1.5

NORWAY 20,660 17,921 +15.3

UNITED STATES 19,451 44,456 ‐56.3

UKRAINE 15,771 11,085 +42.3

NIGERIA 14,670 13,558 +8.2

AUSTRALIA 13,798 13,927 ‐0.9

ISRAEL 10,916 10,570 +3.3

CAMEROON 10,548 3,583 +194.4

Source: EUROSTAT


ABOUT ACEA

ACEA represents the 15 Europe‐based car, van, truck and bus manufacturers:

BMW Group, DAF Trucks, Daimler, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, Ford of Europe,

Hyundai Motor Europe, Iveco, Jaguar Land Rover, Opel Group, PSA Group, Renault

Group, Toyota Motor Europe, Volkswagen Group, Volvo Cars, and Volvo Group.

More information can be found on www.acea.be or @ACEA_eu.

ABOUT THE EU AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY

12.2 million people ‐ or 5.6% of the EU employed population ‐ work in the sector.

The 3.1 million jobs in automotive manufacturing represent 10.4% of EU manufacturing employment.

Motor vehicles account for over €400 billion in tax contributions in the EU15.

The sector is also a key driver of knowledge and innovation, representing Europe's largest private contributor to R&D, with €44.7 billion invested annually.

The automobile industry generates a trade surplus of €100.4 billion for the EU.

European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA) Avenue des Nerviens 85 | B‐1040 Brussels | www.acea.be T +32 2 732 55 50 | F +32 738 73 10 | [email protected] | @ACEA_eu

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