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    Ministry of Earth Sciences Proposals for XII Five Year Plan

    GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

    TWELFTH FIVE YEAR PLAN

    (2012-17)

    WORKING GROUP DOCUMENT

    Earth System Science Organisation (ESSO)

    Ministry of Earth Sciences

    October 2011

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    Ministry of Earth Sciences Proposals for XII Five Year Plan

    TABLE OF CONTENT

    No. Item Page

    Preface 3

    Executive Summary 5

    1 Introduction 31

    2 Achievements of the XI Five Year Plan (2007-2012) 34

    3 Proposals for XII Five Year Plan ( Continuing and New programs)

    60

    3.1 Atmospheric & Climate Science and Services 60

    3.2 Atmospheric processes and Modeling and Services 68

    3.3 Climate Change Research 83

    3.4 Airborne Platforms 102

    3.5 Ocean Observations 106

    3.6 Ocean Science and Services 111

    3.7 Ocean Survey & Mineral Resources 139

    3.8 Ocean Technology 150

    3.9 Ocean Research Vessels 168

    3.10 Polar Sciences & Cryosphere 171

    3.11 Seismological Research 180

    3.12 Geoscience 196

    3.13 High Performance Computing 198

    3.14 Research, Education, Training and Outreach 201

    4 Year-wise Summary of Financial Requirement 214

    Annex -1: Composition of Working Group of XII Plan

    Annex 2: Composition of Sub-working Groups for XII Plan

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    Ministry of Earth Sciences Proposals for XII Five Year Plan

    PREFACE

    The Earth behaves as a single inter-linked system. The energy and material transfer within and across different sub-systems, viz., atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, geosphere, and biosphere are complex. The understanding of such interactions can lead to improved prediction of weather, climate and hazards for societal, economic and environmental benefits. According to a recent survey, the net economic benefit of various services being rendered by the Earth System Science Organization (ESSO) can contribute from 0.4 to 1.2 per cent of GDP.

    During the XI plan period (2007-2012), the major focus was on the observation

    systems for improving services related to oceanic, geological and atmospheric hazards, and improving short-term forecasts. Some of the major highlights were setting up of the state-of-the-art tsunami warning system, two desalination plants in the Lakshadweep Islands, centre for climate change research, advanced training school for earth system science and climate change, third polar station at the Larsmann Hills in Antarctica, high performance computing facility, first scientific expedition to the North Pole, successful testing of remotely operable vehicle and soil tester beyond 5000m. Various services were augmented/improved such as agro-meteorology for farmers, fog forecast for aviation, weather and air quality forecasting for Delhi, seasonal forecast of monsoon, cyclone forecast, ocean state forecasting, potential fishing zone advisories, ornamental fishery, coastal water quality, etc. The preparation of our additional claim of Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) under Legal Continental Shelf Program based on scientific data of 31,000 line km was highly acclaimed. This was possible due to availability of high quality atmospheric/oceanic observations and high computing resources, their assimilation in models and integration and collaboration among various units of ESSO. The focus during the XII plan would be on discovering new phenomena, exploring sea bed and polar regions, understanding of various earth processes and their interaction, developing earth system science model and application of knowledge for improving/developing services for societal benefits. The major task would be to develop climate services in view of climate change and variability. Apart from continuing many operational programs related to observations of atmosphere, ocean, snow and ice and land surface and services related to weather and hazards. The major missions planned are related to monsoon, earthquake, mountain meteorology, cloud physics, ocean exploration, acquisition of observing platforms, such as aircrafts and ships, and augmenting observing systems.

    The development of program for the XIIth Plan largely depends on inputs from four Group of Expert Committees in Ocean Science, Atmospheric Sciences, Information and Services, Technology, Solid Earth and Cryosphere Studies to develop Vision and Prospective Plan for 10 years. I would like to thank all the members of three committees, particularly the Chairpersons viz., Dr. P.S. Goel Former Secretary, MoES, Dr. Harsh Gupta Former Secretary, DOD, Dr. J. Srinivasan, Professor IISc, Bangalore and Dr. S.R. Shetye, Director, NIO, Goa for providing their valuable time and advice towards preparation of these documents.

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    Ministry of Earth Sciences Proposals for XII Five Year Plan

    The Working Group and Sub-groups led by Dr. J. Srinivasan, Prof. V.K. Gaur,

    and Dr. A.K. Singhvi, for atmospheric, ocean, cryosphere and geosciences, respectively, constituted by the Planning Commission in April 2011, had deliberated extensively. The outcome of these meetings have culminated into the formulation of the draft proposals for XII Plan period enumerated in this report. I sincerely thank all the Members of the Working Group for their contributions and guidance in shaping the course of the ESSO for the next five years and beyond. The effort of the officers and scientists of the ESSO in preparing this Report is commendable.

    Dr. Shailesh Nayak Chairman, Working Group Ministry of Earth Sciences

    Date: September, 2011 Place: New Delhi

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    Ministry of Earth Sciences Proposals for XII Five Year Plan

    Executive Summary 1. Introduction The Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) was established by the Government of India in 2006 to address holistically various aspects relating to earth processes for understanding the variability of earth system and for improving forecast of the weather, climate and hazards The Earth System Science Organization (ESSO) works as an executive arm of the MoES for implementing its policies and programmes. The Planning Commission has constituted a Working Group for MoES to develop proposals for the 12th Plan, vide Order NO.12016/3/2011-S&T dated 18.04.2011 (Annexure). The Working Group had two meetings, and had deliberated various issues extensively in line with the approach to 12th Plan exercise suggested by Planning Commission. The Working Group finally has given consent to the draft 12th Plan proposals of the Ministry. This document describes the salient achievements during the 11th Plan period (2007-12), the proposed plan for the 12th Plan (2012-17), and financial outlay. 2. Achievements during 11th Plan (2007-12): 2.1 Atmospheric Science, Technology and Services: The meteorological services have significant impact on society in general.

    The upgradation of weather forecasting capabilities to an optimum level was one of the major priority programs launched during 11th Plan. It has four components, viz., atmospheric observation network; strengthening of computing facilities, data integration and product generation and dissemination of information. The activities related to computing, integration and product generation and dissemination have been completed. The argumentation of observational network is progressing. IMD now has a network of automatic weather stations, Doppler Weather Radars (DWR), state-of-the-art upper air systems etc. These observations are now being used to run its global and regional numerical prediction models on High Performance Computing Systems (HPC). It has improved forecasting capabilities for high impact weather events like cyclones, severe thunderstorm, heavy rainfall and floods in a significant manner. A Web-interfaced National Satellite Data Centre was established for archiving all satellite data available till date and serving near real time value added products. A complete end-to-end forecasting system that includes acquisition of data from various observing systems, linkage to a central data processing system, their utilization in the numerical models, providing a state-of-the-art IT based environment to all forecasters across the country has been installed. This involves integration of all observations and overlaying them on model outputs and synoptic charts along with proper visualization and customized dissemination of weather forecast to the end users. A set of four High Performance Computing systems (HPCS), one each at INCOIS, IITM, IMD, and NCMRWF have been installed for global data processing, assimilation and numerical weather prediction (NWP) for weather and ocean state forecasting services. The combined strength of HPC in the ESSO is about 125 TeraFlops, which has significantly improved coupled atmosphericocean modelling capability.

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    Ministry of Earth Sciences Proposals for XII Five Year Plan

    With the commissioning of HPCs, Global Forecast System (GFS T382/L64) having spatial resolution of 35 km was made operational at IMD, incorporating Grid Point Statistical Interpolation (GSI) scheme for global data assimilation for the generation of global scale forecasts up to 7 days in advance. At NCMRWF, continuous efforts are on to enhance the accuracy and reliability of the forecasts by increasing resolution, improving physical processes, data assimilation, optimizing use of satellite and DWR data, coupling land, ocean and atmosphere, ensemble forecasting along with extensive verification and validation. The horizontal resolution of the Global Forecast System (GFS) was increased from T254L64 (50km) to T382L64 (~35km) along with assimilation of direct satellite radiances which was subsequently made operational at IMD. Experimental runs with higher resoluti