3/24/2013

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Systems of Production

How Do We ProduceThe Pig Of The Future?

Dr Michael BrummBrumm Swine Consultancy, Inc

North Mankato, MN USA

mbrumm@hickorytech.net

To predict the future we must understand where we’re coming from

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Fao.org

FAOSTAT | © FAO Statistics Division 2012 17 October 2012 

2010Million

Hd

China 476.27

USA 64.93

Brazil 38.96

Germany 26.51

Spain 25.34

Mexico 15.44

Poland 14.87

France 14.53

Denmark 13.17

Netherlands 12.26

Canada 11.84

Ukraine 7.58

Fao.org

FAOSTAT | © FAO Statistics Division 2012 17 October 2012 

2010Million

Hd

China 476.27

USA 64.93

Brazil 38.96

Germany 26.51

Spain 25.34

Mexico 15.44

Poland 14.87

France 14.53

Denmark 13.17

Netherlands 12.26

Canada 11.84

Ukraine 7.58

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Fao.org

2010Million

Hd

China 476.27

USA 64.93

Brazil 38.96

Germany 26.51

Spain 25.34

Mexico 15.44

Poland 14.87

France 14.53

Denmark 13.17

Netherlands 12.26

Canada 11.84

Ukraine 7.58FAOSTAT | © FAO Statistics Division 2012 

17 October 2012 

Fao.org

FAOSTAT | © FAO Statistics Division 2012 17 October 2012 

2010Million

Hd

China 476.27

USA 64.93

Brazil 38.96

Germany 26.51

Spain 25.34

Mexico 15.44

Poland 14.87

France 14.53

Denmark 13.17

Netherlands 12.26

Canada 11.84

Ukraine 7.58

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Pig Production Will Remain in US

October 2012 ‐ Informe SIP‐Interpig 2011. SIP consultors/ Spainwww.sipconsultors.com

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October 2012 ‐ Informe SIP‐Interpig 2011. SIP consultors/ Spainwww.sipconsultors.com

Latta, Harris, Hanon & PenningrothBreed‐Wean – 50th (90th)%tile estimates

2010 2011

Labor/pig $4.88 ($4.65) $5.91($5.40)

Facilities/pig $5.61 ($4.35) $6.38 ($5.20)

Other $2.97 ($2.43) $1.76 ($1.00)

Costs normally born by contractor $13.45 (11.43) $14.04 ($11.60)

Genetics $3.36 ($2.12) $3.00 ($0.65)

Vet/Med $3.65 ($3.11) $3.77 ($2.70)

General and Administrative $1.48 ($1.16) $1.38 ($0.70)

Feed $11.15 ($10.07) $17.38 ($14.89)

Non‐facility interest $0.44 ($0.27) $0.21 ($0.00)

Total $33.53 ($28.16) $39.78 ($33.00)

Corn $4.12 $6.70SBM $299 $319

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Latta, Harris, Hanon & PenningrothBreed‐Wean

• Genetic costs

– Includes semen, breeding supplies, royalties, sow depreciation, (gain)loss on sale or death. Breeding stock development costs are capitalized.

– What impacts genetic costs?

• Disease (closed herd due to PRRS)

• Cull sow value

• Turning the herd

Latta, Harris, Hanon & PenningrothBreed‐Wean 18 owned + 1 contracted (3000 sow avg inventory 2011)

2010 2011

<2000 >2000 <2000 >2000

Labor/pig $5.61 $5.23 $6.08 $5.21

Facilities/pig $4.71 $5.67 $4.76 $5.97

Other $1.88 $1.25 $1.94 $1.49

Costs normally born by contractor $12.21 $12.14 $12.78 $12.68

Genetics $3.33 $2.59 $2.67 $2.55

Vet/Med $3.28 $2.46 $3.57 $2.56

General and Administrative $1.59 $0.90 $1.32 $0.94

Feed $11.45 $11.43 $14.51 $14.64

Non‐facility interest $0.25 $0.43 $0.24 $0.27

Total $32.08 $29.53 $35.06 $33.71

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Latta, Harris, Hanon & PenningrothBreed‐Wean

• 2011

– Of the 10 herds with costs below the group average, 5 were <2000 and 5 were >2000.

– On average size matters, but individually size isn’t an issue.

Latta, Harris, Hanon & PenningrothWean‐Finish Cost of Gain, $/cwt

2010 2011

Farms 9 12

Average cost of gain $38.43 $46.31

Range $35.85‐$44.54 $40.08‐49.72

Labor/Facilities/Other range $6.12‐9.52 $6.13‐10.14

Feed range $24.88‐32.31 $29.33‐38.76

Veterinary range(where do vaccines happen)

$0.17‐3.57 $0.40‐3.30

Corn $4.12 $6.70SBM $299 $319

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How We Have Improved

Grow‐Finish ‐ US

SGraphics1987

PigCHAMP1995

PigCHAMP1999

PigCHAMP2000

MetaFarms2008‐2011

In wt 50 56.7 56.9 55 54

Out Wt 235 241 250 245 264.8

ADG 1.46 1.56 1.58 1.56 1.75

F/G 3.49 3.21 3.09 2.96 2.95

Mortality 3.0% 3.0% 3.1% 4.1% 3.9%

How We Have Improved

Wean‐Finish ‐ US

SGraphics1989

PigCHAMP1990

PigCHAMP1999

PigCHAMP2000

MetaFarms2008‐2011

In wt 13 15.2 10.8 12.1 13

Out Wt 235 229.6 239 250 264.8

ADG 1.19 1.17 1.40 1.35 1.53

F/G 3.26 3.10 2.76 2.71 2.67

Mortality 3.85% 3.68% 6.12% 5.5%

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USDA Federally InspectedBarrow and Gilt Carcass Wt, (1977‐2011)

77.3

90.9

86.4

95.5

81.8

72.7

100

R² = 0.9835

160

170

180

190

200

210

220Wt, lb

Year

kg

If trend continues, US carcass weight will be 99 kg (218 lb) in 2022

y = 0.0112x + 8.6012R² = 0.9452

8.00

8.25

8.50

8.75

9.00

9.25

9.50

9.75

10.00

10.25

10.50

10.75

11.00

Pig

s/l

itte

r

Month

Pig per litterUSDA Hogs and Pigs Report

10.16

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PigCHAMP Pigs/Female/YrUS Producers

15

18

21

24

27

30

US Pork Industry 1959‐2009

www.pork.org

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Future Production Goals

• From weaning to slaughter

– 2 lb/d daily live weight gain

– 2:1 feed:gain live weight gain feed conversion

• Corrected 1550 kcal/lb diet ME basis

• Slaughter weights will continue to increase

Future Production Goals

• Breed‐Wean– 38‐40 pigs/inventoried female/yr?

– 60 pigs/female lifetime

– Weaning age – legislated or voluntary?

• Farrow‐Finish– 7500 lb live weight sales/inventoried female/yr

• 5600 lb carcass wt sales/inventoried female/yr– US Target based on 75% carcass yield

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Production Trends

• Pork production tends to follow grain production

– Cheaper to ship chilled pork than feed grains

– Utilization of manure nutrients by cropping systems

– Removal from urban centers

• Risk is more disconnect production‐consumer

Multi‐site production

• Keep sows in low pig density regions –reduces PRRS and other air born virus risk

• Grow pigs in feed grain producing regions

– Manure production matches grain production

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Change is a Constant

Brown‐Brandl, et alTrans ASAE 47(1):259‐270

W * 3.412 = btu/hr

Pig Housing Systems

0

58

116

174

232

290

348

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

22 44 66 88 110 132 154 176 198 220

Watt

Btu/hr

Pig Wt, kg

Sensible Plus Latent Heat Production by Growing Pigs

Prior to 1988 1988‐2002 Brumm estimate of 2012

Trans ASAE 47(1):259-270

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Iowa‐Southern MinnesotaLive Weight at Slaughter

250

255

260

265

270

275

280

Lb

Week

2011 2008-2012 2012 2013

Lactating Sow Metabolic HeatSow Heat Production (based on CIGR)

Average size of animals 425 lbs 192.8kgDays of Pregnancy 110 days

Gestation or Farrowing? Farrowing

Temperature 68 F 20.0C

W/sow Btu/sow/hr

Base TOTAL heat production 433 1476Adjustment for Temp 100.0%

Percent Sensible 64.8%

Sensible Heat Production 280 957

Latent Heat Loss 152 520 0.498 lbs H2O/hr-hd

226 g H2O/hr-hd

Based on: Pedersen, Soeren. 2002. Heat and Moisture Production for Pigs on Animal and House Level. ASAE Paper 024178. St. Joseph, MI.

Courtesy Dr Jay Harmon

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Pig Housing Systems

• Metabolic Heat Production + Global Warming Trends

– How do we provide thermal‐neutral conditions that maximize pig performance/comfort?

Skin Temperature35 C ?

Natural ConvectionEvaporation

Rad

iationwith

 Surfaces

Conduction to Floor

Forced Convection

Paths of Cooling pigs  

Explore Non‐Evaporative Cooling Paths such as Floor Cooling 

Slide Courtesy Dr Larry Jacobson

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Future Production Facilities

• ‘Green’ Barn Project

– University of Minnesota leader

• Design Targets

– 50% reduction in energy use and emissions

– Maintain/improve pig performance

‘Green’ BarnDesign Options Matrix

Partially Slatted

Version A: Geothermal and heat pump for heating and cooling (PEX tubing) floor (140 kW heating and cooling) plus direct fire for room heat. (136 m3/h-pig max)

Version B: Geothermalonly heating and cooling of floor and room (475 kW heating and cooling) (68 m3/h-pig max)

Fully Slatted

Version C: Evaporative Cooling only (twice normal cooling capacity) (170 m3/h-pig )

Version D: Geothermalheating and cooling of room air (475 kW heating and cooling) (68 m3/h-pig max)

NOTE: All barns include outdoor covered manure storage

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Versions A and B

Pig Housing Systems

• We have assumed 100% responsibility for pig living conditions.

• We have an ethical responsibility to provide for the needs of the animals under our care.

• The public has an unrealistic view of past production practices.

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Pig Housing Systems

• We have assumed 100% responsibility for pig living conditions.

• We have an ethical responsibility to provide for the needs of the animals under our care.

• The public has an unrealistic view of past production practices.

• We increasingly have a responsibility to educate the un‐informed about how we carry out this responsibility. 

Welfare

• How do we define welfare?

• Perception vs Science?

Right or Wrong – the Consumer is Always Right!

However, the animal rights groups are driving the debate, not the consumer.

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New Technologywill keep coming

Food Safety

• Consumers expect safe food

• Recalls due to pathogens rare

• Recalls due to adultration – big concern

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Food Safety

• Germany – Dioxin contamination

• US Homeland Security Law Application

– Feed compounders must put in place systems to track all ingredients back to source

– Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points (HACCP)

What Was versus What Is

• Closeouts – what are we really measuring?

– ADG, Feed Conversion, P/S/Y

• Tell us what the last group did

– Statistical Process Control Charting

– Long term management decisions

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Are we measuringthe right thing?

PIC Expected Intervention

Nursery 2280 2400

Grow‐Fin 4140 4300

Wean‐Fin 3920 3940

K State Expected Intervention

Nursery 2325 2475

Grow‐Fin 4200 4500

Wean‐Fin 3900 4200

kcal ME/ lb liveweight gain

Are we measuringthe right thing?

• We get paid on carcass wt, not live wt

• Yet we compute performance on liveweight

• When will be begin thinking of f/g or $ per lb of carcass wt gain? 

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KState, 2012 Swine DayLow/Low High/Low High/High P Value

In Wt 109.3 109.3 109.3

D81 Wt 279.6 281.7 278.0 0.44

ADG 2.08 2.13 2.09 0.35

F/G 2.71 2.86 2.94 0.0001

F/G % of L/L 105.5% 108.5%

HCW 210.2 210.4 206.1 0.11

Yield, % 75.1 74.7 74.1 0.001

Low/Low – corn/soy for 81dHigh/Low – 30% DDGS +19% Midds 64 d followed by corn/soy 17 dHigh/High – 30% DDGS + 19% Midds 81 d

KState, 2012 Swine DayLow/Low High/Low High/High P Value

CW @ start75% yield

82.0 82.0 82.0

HCW 210.2 210.4 206.1 0.11

HCW gain 128.2 128.4 124.1

Feed 461.5 493.1 496.0

CW F/G 3.60 3.84 4.00

% of L/L 106.7% 111.1%

% of L/L LW 105.5% 108.5%

Low/Low – corn/soy for 81dHigh/Low – 30% DDGS +19% Midds 64 d followed by corn/soy 17 dHigh/High – 30% DDGS + 19% Midds 81 d

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What Was versus What Is

• Monitoring the current growth process– Water

• Daily total – looks at health challenge• Daily patterns – looks at thermal neutral zone

– Feed deliveries vs expected deliveries by day on feed

• Monitors feed intake (disappearance)

– Load Cells on Bins• Inventory management• Limit out‐of‐feed events

– Monitoring pig weight gain

Continuous Weighing

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Scale Barns

Information Age

• The future will be smart phone apps and scan codes at sites linked in one system

• Right now you formulate and budget with one system and grind/deliver and pay with another

• Joel Stave’s PrairieESystems

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Information Age

• What information should we gather in the future?

• How to turn the information we gather into management decisions?

The man who makes no mistakes does not usually make anything.

William Connor Magee, Irish clergyman

3/24/2013

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Systems of Production

How Do We ProduceThe Pig Of The Future?

Dr Michael BrummBrumm Swine Consultancy, Inc

North Mankato, MN USA

mbrumm@hickorytech.netBlog:  www.Mnpork.com