Scientific Annals of the Danube Delta Institute for Research and Development, Tulcea – Romania 2001

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HUMAN POPULATION DINAMICS FORECAST WITHINFLUVIO-MARITIME PART OF THE DANUBE DELTA

Vasilica IGN�TESCU1, Mihaela CONDUR2

1National Institute for Research and Development Danube Delta Tulcea165, Babadag str., Ro-8800 Tulcea / Romania, E-mail: ignatescu@indd.tim.ro

2 Environmental Protection Inspectoate-Constanta County

Abstract: The Danube Delta Biosphere Reserve’ human population represent an important “actor” inassessing the strategy for the sustainable development of the socio-economic systems.The fluvio-maritime Delta is the part of the Danube Delta with the highest areas surrounding thestrictly protected zones where economic activities are not allowed. In this part of the Danube DeltaBiosphere Reserve the local communities are grouped in six rural settlements: Sfantu Gheorghe andC.A. Rosetti - with 4 villages and one hamlet – and one city: Sulina. The results of the studies carriedout in these communities showed that the local population, which is involved in, and dependent, moreor less on the use of the natural resources, is of 2204 inhabitants settled in 946 households. Thesefigures indicate that the population density in the area is high enough and these setlements arealmost compact. The number of the entire population of the fluvio-maritime delta decreased in the lastthree decades with 17,8 % and with 6,5% in comparison with the last census. The greatestdecreasing was recorded within rural settlements. The increasing and/or decreasing of the inhabitantsnumber is due to the total demography stem: the natural stem and the migratory one. The agestructure of the population indicate small percentages of the “young” category in comparison with the“third age” category which has recorded 18,0% of the entire population. These results lead us to theconclusion that the eldering population tendency is occuring in the fluvio-maritime part of the DanubeDelta. The studies regarding the forecast of the sustainable use of the natural resources and thesocio-economic development were carried out in each settlement. The results have pointed out thatthe population number will record a 3-4% increasing on short term and a 5-8% increasing on amedium term.

Matherial and methods

For the elaboration of these study statistical methods were used, for collecting and processing of data,for informing and documentation in field, sociologic enquiry, documents existing in villages and townsand at County Statistics.

Results and discusions

In 2000 year, in that area, were 7297 inhabitants representing 52.4 % from entire population ofDanube Delta. Average density reported to administrative territory is quite low, meaning 6.4inhabitants /square km. Large bodies of water determine the density of population reported to landsurface to be higher, that means 7,6 inhabitants on square km. The lowest density (128,3 inhabitantsin 56,5 families on square km reported to villages surface) is recorded to C.A.Rosetti village. The hightdensity of population is registered in Sfantu Gheorghe village with 850 families with 2024 inhabitantson square km.-reported to village surface) (fig. No 1).

Human Population development

By studying the population of the last three decades it appears the fact that the number decrease with17.8% in fluvio maritime delta, and comparing with the data of the last census the population decreasewith 6.6%.Studying data of the population it appear the fact that the number, in maritime delta, decrease in aslower manner than in river delta for the period between 1971-2000. After 1992 (time of last census) itis registered a approximate stability of the population, in maritime delta, the decrease is only 0.8 % peryear. By the data from local councils the situation is different (Fig. 2 and Fig. 3).

Scientific Annals of the Danube Delta Institute for Research and Development, Tulcea – Romania 2001

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Fig no 1 Inhabitants on square km.-reported to village surface

Fig. 2 Human population dinamics in fluvio maritime delta

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Scientific Annals of the Danube Delta Institute for Research and Development, Tulcea – Romania 2001

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Fig 3 Population evolution in numbers

The rural zone lost over 50% of it’s population, in the same time in Sulina town the population increasewith over 17% that fact , obvious , on behalf of migrating actions of the village population to town.In 2000, C.A. Rosetti was registered with 60.3% less population than 1971 and Sf. Gheorghe with33.5%.Comparing to 1992, at large view, the decreasing of number of inhabitants since 2000 was 6.6% with5.2% in rural zones and 7.2% in Sulina Town. This last data confirm the stability of the population.After 1992 it is a decrease of the number even in Sulina town, as a result of deplete of economicactivities, especially industry and transport .Increasing and/or decreasing of the number of inhabitants is given by the total demographic stem thatmeans natural stem and migratory one.In towns (Sulina) the increasing of number of inhabitants in 1971-2000 was determined by increasingof migratory stem. The decreasing of the number of the population is determined, especially in the lastten years, by important decrease of natural stem. Fig 4 presents the situation in 2000 that is the samefor early years

Fig.4 The movement of population in fluvio maritime delta

In rural zone the migratory stem is positive, that means a part of people who left at the beginning ofperiod came back. The natural stem, the situation is the same from other parts of our country,meaning negative.

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Scientific Annals of the Danube Delta Institute for Research and Development, Tulcea – Romania 2001

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It is important the fact that this phenomena is happening in a zone that has a positive natural stemcorrelated with birth rate, hope of life and low mortality. The correlation was with food diet with lot offish, no pollution ad lack of stress.

In our days , the natality rate is low, mortality rare is increasing conducting to a negative natural stemand with hight values. From figure 4 it can observe that this value is different for different villages frommaritime delta. Comparing with rural zone, Sulina city, natality arise has the smallest value 8 children/1000 inhabitants – that is very small – and mortality rate is smaller than rural zone –12.1/ 1000inhabitants. That conduct to a negative natural stem but relatively small comparing with data from ruralzone. The smaller percent of mortality is correlated with health care system. There is a hospital, a birthhouse, pharmacy and communication, transport for intervention and resolve emergency cases anddiagnose and treatment .At the other side there are 5 villages of C.A. Rosetti hamlet, extremely isolated, low communication,no equipment, where mortality rate is 29.3/1000 inhabitants, that determining a natural stem over 4times smaller than in Sulina town. A similar negative situation is at Sf. Gheorghe, where natural stemis 13.9. The low rate of natality has complex causes, some the same from others parts of our country.The segment on which can be made modification with a semnificative result not only natality but alsomortality rate is improving by health care.

The population dynamic influenced and influence other demographic index, for example the structureon age ranges. In fig. No 5 it is presented the situation in 2000. There is not a good situation. Theyoung population represents only 17.6% and the population over 60 years, is near 18% meaning aprocess of growing old throw the population of maritime delta. This process is for all our country , butis more intense in this area. This phenomena would be a positive one if the older population have alonger life (hope). But this fact is due the small percent of young population. The real good think is thesegment of population that represents labour hand is enough well represented (64%).

At detailed look it is clear that the big situation is determined by the situation on different zones. InSulina town , the population between 15-60 years is in a greater percent than in rural zone (68.6) andolder population percent is smaller. The most difficult problem is in C.A. Rosetti village, where , despitethe greatest percentage of young population (19.4%) the percentage of population at working age isthe smaller (47.7%), with a 33% for old population. An intermediate situation is at Sfantu Gheorghewhere the percentage of population at working age is 60%.

The data for all country, in 1992, have very close values: 0-14 years –22.7%;15-59 years –60.9%; 60years and over –16.4%. This values are not changing the situation because the trend is for older of thepopulation. It is fact that this process begins when the percent of old population, over 65 years, isover 4%, and is obvious when is over 7%. The data for maritime delta were in 2000, for populationover 65 years –12.9%. In rural zones the percentage of this category of population (19.8%) wasgreater than in urban zones (10,0%). The percentage of 0-14 years age group represents 17.2% inurban zones and 18.6% in rural zones. The total situation for range of age and zone in study is17.6% (fig no 6) .

Conclusions

Analising demographic data before 2000 year it arise the fact that after 1971 occurs a decreasing ofnumber of inhabitants of fluvio-maritime delta.It is obvious that after the establish of Danube Delta - Biosphere Protected area, these process ofdecreasing, slow and reach a relative stability .The natural stem is negative so if we analize only this indicator, the number of inhabitants shoulddecrease with an equal value of its rate.The point is that natural stem rate is increasing and expected to increase (following socio – economicdevelopment) and compensate even cover the lose from natural stem. It is difficult to advance anumber for increase or decrease of the number of population. From some calculations made, for eachvillage, with taking into account of valorification of natural resources and socio – economicdevelopment resulted that population from fluvio –maritime delta will have same number or registera slow increase of about 3-4 % on short terms (5 eyers) and 5-8 % on medium term. (Fig. no 6) Human population in fluvio maritime delta, heterogenous from ethnic point, with healthy moral andsocial principles and representing a hight biologic potential and is capable to consolidate and formhealthy human systems . It depends only of socio-economic politics that will be applied in that area.

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Fig.5 Range of age for population in fluvio-maritime delta

Fig. No 6 Prognosis of number of human population in fluvio maritime delta

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