Crompton Greaves - 1 June 2015

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Crompton Greaves (CRG) Industrials

Plugging the hole.

BUY

JUNE 01, 2015

RESULT H B C D F Z C B L C I N

Cautious

D L U C [

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F D Z C Q G D L U C [

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Stock data Forecasts/Valuations 2015 2016E 2017E

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T = U C V E ? @ < @ = W V X D C J G M L S I G L I S F G L J J F G P S P L Q L K J Q K P L Q P S P G S P F P I G J I L K K Q L

Y U W V C D @ Z [ \ C B C D ? E C S G I F L S G I N H S G H I K S G I N M M Q I L Q S M Q J K L G M N N K N G J J K M Q N

] D ^ ? @ C I J S K G M L L F J S K G M L K O K L Q N R K P Q L O K L Q K R N G M F M S G I N F L Q I

PBIT< = > ? @ A B C D ? E C H N H I P H I M F L P F O P K Q J R O P M Q M R P P Q H P G P P H P G L I L O K S Q J R

T = U C V E ? @ < @ = W V X D C K G P K L K G M H M J M F I H H K N Q H S N Q M N M Q P N G M F S S G S F L P M Q F

Y U W V C D @ Z [ \ C B C D ? E C S J S S J M S M J N M J M Q I P F Q P O S Q I R K G L P M K G L P J O M Q H R

] D ^ ? @ C O P L P R O F R K N O N I R _ ` O K G J S F Q P R N P F Q F O S J M R K J O P G K F N R

Revenue mix (%)< = > ? @ A B C D ? E C S H Q P S J Q S N K Q J S L Q P S N Q J S F Q H

T = U C V E ? @ < @ = W V X D C N P Q P S F Q I S H Q J S I Q J N K Q P S I Q S

Y U W V C D @ Z [ \ C B C D ? E C K I Q M K H Q J K F Q J P M Q F K J Q P K J Q I

PBIT margins (%)< = > ? @ A B C D ? E C I Q S J Q S J Q N I Q K I Q K J Q K

T = U C V E ? @ < @ = W V X D C K S Q N K P Q S K K Q J K P Q M K P Q H K K Q H

Y U W V C D @ Z [ \ C B C D ? E C K M Q K K M Q K I Q N K M Q H K M Q K K M Q P

% change

Crompton Greaves Industrials

KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH 117

Exhibit 6: Crompton Greaves, 4QFY15 subsidiaries revenue model (Rs mn)

m n o

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n

k r \ g d s t

n u

\ v w g b

u

a

u o u

a

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g \ c x y

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a

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a e b

Exhibit 7: Crompton Greaves (overseas), raw material as cost of sales, March fiscal year-ends (%)

m n o

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k r \ g d s t

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\ v w g b

u

a

u o u

a

n

g \ c x y

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4QFY15 4QFY15E 4QFY14 3QFY15 vs est. yoy qoq FY2015 FY2014 % change

Sales 16,605 17,561 17,694 14,746 (5.4) (6.2) 12.6 61,761 60,608 1.9 a b c d e f d f g h i j i i k l g h m j n o p l g h m j i i i l g h q j r n m l g q s p l g n s m l h o s o g i h j r m t l g i t j i n n l o s t

u v w x y g h j o o p l g h j q n r l h j k h m g h n s r l g h p k s k l g h j t m r l k r k g k r h s q l

z { | } { v d ~ { g r j k m i l g r j i t t l g h t j n h m l g o s i l g o t s q l g k i j t t m l g k n j m n i l t s m

a } c w d d g k j m h t l g k j r h n l g k j n m i l g o s m l k s m g h q j m t i l g h q j m n m l g t s k l

v d ~ a b c g k j k q p l g k j m p k l g o j t r h l g h h s m l i t s p g h t j t m p l g h t j n o n l g q s o l

EBITDA (59) 70 28 (111) NA NA NA (109) (47) NA v d ~ e x w } d g h k h l k o n r r h r g n t i s n l g h o o s k l g r o k s o l o h m m r q g m o s k l

e v d ~ d f v g k m o l g k p l g k q k l g k i p l r q r s i r s q t s r g h j o r p l g h j h r m l r s i

d c ~ d x { v w e g k r i l g q t r l g q i r l g q o h l g n s k l g h m s n l g r s k l g h j i n i l g h j m o r l g q s h l

g p q r l g k q n l g h p n l g r r k l g o j r k r l g o j h m m l

{ b g o o l q g o i k l g k q k l g n k i l g q q m l o t s t

Net profit (970) (340) (458) (1,226) NA NA NA (3,374) (2,624) NAa b v ~ { w ~ e { ~ v d } f g h j r m q l h g h j r m q l

z g o j r k q l g k i t l g i o k l g h j o h h l g n j o h r l g o j m i r l r r s n

Key ratios (%)z { | } { v d ~ { u { d f n m s r n i s r i o s q i t s t n r s q

a } c w d d d b c s u { d f o o s k o h s i o q s k o k s r o q s k

v d ~ d b c s u { d f o t s o o h s q h q s h h i s k h m s q

EBITDA margin (0.4) 0.4 0.2 (0.8) (0.2) (0.1) { ~ e g n s m l g o s t l g h s h l g i s t l g q s i l g k s i l

{ b ~ { v d g o s k l h s k g h k q s p l g k r s r l g h r s p l g o t s n l

} { ~ e g n s r l g h s p l g o s i l g r s k l g n s n l g q s k l

% change

Industrials Crompton Greaves

118 KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH

Exhibit 8: Constant currency analysis of Crompton's subsidiary EBITDA, March fiscal year ends (Rs. mn)

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by currency

H V C E Q L U J F U X R H Z P F E D C V F L M C Y f R F Q W H W F M Y ` H ` F Q

`i l J M I P L R C H B C D E C F E J F U X R H Z P F E

Y C U R L M C Y h k o H M F E C ` K C M Q L F R J F E L E Q H

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`\ a J M [ K G a o W H W ] I P L R C H B C D E C F E H D Y C D L M f R H I E Y C U R L M C Y F J H K Q i k o W H W Q H

`\ \ _ a J M [ L V G F U Q C Y J W U K D D C M U W ] _

Yoy growth

4QFY15 4QFY14 3QFY15 Yoy qoq FY2015 FY2014 %

Sales 19,969 17,694 16,088 12.9 24.1 65,080 60,306 7.9

EBITDA (70) 28 (121) (350.4) (42.0) (162) (47) 247.5

Key ratios (%)

EBITDA margin (0.4) 0.2 (0.8) -51 bps 41 bps (0.2) (0.1) -18 bps

Growth (%)



Exhibit 9: Quarterly order booking and backlog trend for Crompton's overseas subsidiaries, March fiscal year-ends, 2008-2015

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Exhibit 10: Quarterly order booking and backlog trend for Crompton's standalone power segment, 4QFY09 - 4QFY15

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Exhibit 11: Crompton Greaves, revised revenue growth and margin assumptions, March fiscal year-ends, 2014-17E (Rs. mn)

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2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2016E 2017E 2016E 2017E

Standalone power ! " # # " $ $ " % & ! ' % & '

( ) * + , - % . ' & / % & ' $ & " & " & & /

0 1 2 3 / ! / ! / $ / % & ! ' % & '

0 1 2 3 4 5 ) 6 7 % . ' # & & " # & $ # & # & $ # &

Consumer products ! " " ! $ ! " " / / ! " $ " & ! " & !

( ) * + , - % . ' # & " & " ! & # " & $ " & $ " & $

0 1 2 3 ! $ " ! ! / ! # ! # / / " & ! " & !

0 1 2 3 4 5 ) 6 7 % . ' " " & # " & ! " & " & " & " &

Industrial systems " ! # " $ ! ! " / $ / " " / ! " " " ! % & ' % " & ! '

( ) * + , - % . ' % $ & ' " & $ / & " " & " # & ! " $ &

0 1 2 3 " # " $ " / " # / ! " $ / ! % / & / ' % " & '

0 1 2 3 4 5 ) 6 7 % . ' " $ & " $ & " " $ & " " & $ " " & $ " &

Standalone (total) ! # / $ ! # # $ $ / # # $ % " & ' % & '

( ) * + , - % . ' & $ ! & / & " # & / # & " $ & "

0 1 2 3 8 9 / / / $ / / " " # $ / # % & ' % & '

0 1 2 3 8 9 4 5 ) 6 7 % . ' & # & & # # & $ # & " # &

Overseas # # " $ / " / " ! " ! " ! # ! / # " % " / & ! ' % & '

( ) * + , - % . ' " # & $ & " % / & $ ' % " & ' % " & # ' &

0 1 2 3 8 9 " / " % " $ # ' " / ! " ! ! / / % ! & ' % ! & '

0 1 2 3 8 9 4 5 ) 6 7 % . ' $ & % $ & ' " & # & $ & ! &

Consolidated

Revenues 134,806 140,131 130,445 138,050 140,967 154,170 (7.5) (10.5) ( ) * + , - % . ' " " & ! & $ % / & # ' & % $ & ' # & !

EBITDA 6,820 6,424 8,427 9,730 9,154 11,725 (7.9) (17.0) 0 1 2 3 8 9 4 5 ) 6 7 % . ' & " ! & / / & & $ / & & /

: , - ) 7 ; * 4 " " & " " & # " ! / $ & ! " / # / & $ " & ! / &

8 < ) ; 7 5 , 7 *

= 9 3 " " " # / / " ! $ / " $ % " & ' % " # & '

EPS (Rs) 4.1 2.9 6.3 9.4 7.7 11.7 (17.5) (19.8) 0 = > 6 ) * + , - % . ' " & % $ & $ ' " " & ! & # " " & / & "

Old estimates % changeNew estimates



Exhibit 12: Estimates build in steady growth in standalone business and overseas margin of 4% in FY2017E x b

u

a k \

u

e b `

n

] q ]

n

k r

u n

g s [ \ ] ^ _ ` a b ^ \ c d e \ ] f e g h b s ? f @ x

m n o

] ^ e p q

n

k r \ g d s t

n u

\ v w g b

u

a

u o u

a

n

g \ c x y

o

a

u

a e b e b

u

a k \

u

e b

2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2014 2015 2016E 2017E

Financials (Rs mn)

Net sales 136,315 140,131 130,445 138,050 75,707 78,370 84,732 92,900 60,306 61,761 45,713 45,149A B C D E F D F G H I J K H L M N G H I I K O J O N G H P P K J H Q N G H P Q K I P J N G R L K M S J N G O H K Q I O N G O O K H Q I N G Q S K M I S N G R J K I M I N G R H K Q O J N G S S K Q I R N G S I K O Q R N

T U V W U X D Y Z U [ \ ] F X G L H K Q R I N G L I K L R R N G Q Q K J M J N G L I K H Q S N G M R K H J O N G M O K L M L N G R P K O J P N G R O K Q H O N G I R K J J R N G I R K J J O N G P M K I S L N G P M K I R R N

A W C [ ] ^ D D G H L K M P H N G H L K L I R N G H M K O J R N G H M K Q J L N G S K O R S N G M K P I J N G S K L P I N G M K J S R N G H S K O M O N G H S K O J R N G H J K O Q P N G H J K O R S N

_ X ` D Y A B C G H L K I P P N G H Q K S R R N G H Q K P R P N G H L K I P O N G Q K O L O N G Q K I Q O N G L K M M O N G H H K R O H N G L K L O P N G H J K J O L N G Q K O J M N G O K R M R N

EBITDA 6,120 6,424 8,427 9,730 6,167 6,533 7,550 8,366 (47) (109) 877 1,364_ X ` D Y Z E \ ] W D H K S L H H K P O S H K S R J H K R L O O J R H K J M O H K P S I H K S Q J O Q I P H O P H O P H O

a E X D Y D F X G L R O N G H K J S O N G H K J M S N G R M S N P P J P S I P S I P S I G H K H Q O N G H K P Q L N G H K P L O N G Q L O N

b D C Y D \ Z U X Z ] E G P K R P H N G P K R P J N G P K I Q R N G P K I J I N G Q L S N G L R S N G L S M N G L Q I N G H K O P L N G H K R M R N G H K S S H N G H K I P H N

PBT 4,023 4,031 6,447 8,469 6,200 6,869 8,090 9,105 (2,179) (2,838) (1,643) (636)c U B G P K I R H N G P K P P J N G P K S Q S N G P K R J Q N G H K L H S N G H K R Q S N G P K H Q S N G P K S M Q N G S S O N G M I R N G I J J N G H M J N

Net profit 1,662 1,811 3,963 5,861 4,287 5,185 5,906 6,647 (2,626) (3,374) (1,943) (786)

EPS 2.7 2.9 6.3 9.4 6.8 8.3 9.4 10.6 (4.2) (5.4) (3.1) (1.3)

Key ratios (%)T d e f U [ D F R O g J R Q g J R O g M R O g M O I g L O S g I O S g J O I g J M L g H R J g J M M g M M R g P

A W C [ e f U [ D F H S g I H S g P H P g J H H g M R g I R g O M g Q M g S P S g M P I g Q P I g R P I g Q

_ A e f U [ D F H S g P H I g P H S g J H S g J H H g R H J g O H H g I H P g R H R g M H R g I H L g J H O g J

EBITDA margin 4.5 4.6 6.5 7.0 8.1 8.3 8.9 9.0 (0.1) (0.2) 1.9 3.0h i c d U Y j Z E I g J P g L S g L R g H Q g P Q g Q L g M L g Q G I g R N G S g R N G I g R N G H g S N

c U B Y U X D M Q g O M M g H I Q g M I J g Q I J g L P S g M P O g J P O g J G P J g M N G H Q g L N G H Q g I N G P I g R N

h k c d U Y j Z E H g P H g I I g J S g P M g O R g R O g J O g P G S g S N G M g M N G S g I N G H g O N

Consolidated Standalone Subsidiaries



Exhibit 13: Consolidated financials of Crompton Greaves, March fiscal year-ends, 2009-17E (Rs. mn)

l m n o p q r s m t u v w x y z m { v | } w ~ { { n { m w v n { q ~

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E

Income statement

Operating income 91,409 100,051 112,486 120,944 134,806 140,131 130,445 138,050

EBITDA 12,770 13,438 8,036 3,832 6,820 6,424 8,427 9,730

Net profits 8,241 9,191 3,676 838 2,587 1,811 3,963 5,861

EPS (Rs) 12.8 14.3 5.7 1.3 4.1 2.9 6.3 9.4

Balance sheet

Total sources of funds 30,095 37,607 46,666 56,046 60,523 63,627 61,553 61,248

Total application of funds 30,095 37,607 46,666 56,046 60,523 63,627 61,553 61,248

Free cash flow

Net cashflow from operating activites 9,442 10,563 5,605 4,133 4,449 3,195 (1,271) 6,878

Cash (used) / realised in investing activities (5,751) (7,382) (4,623) (11,367) (978) 136 (40) (303)

Free cash flow 4,812 (1,777) (490) (6,918) 2,218 (1,321) 5,378 4,050

Ratios

Documents

Crompton Greaves - 1 June 2015