Crompton Greaves, 1st February 2013

7/29/2019 Crompton Greaves, 1st February 2013

1/12

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

EBITDA 2.0 182.7 (98.9) 1365.1 (99.9)

EBITDA margin (%) 0.1 6.0 (597) 4.7 (460.1)

Source: Company, Angel Research

Crompton Greaves (CG) reported a disappointing performance for 3QFY2013,

which was below our estimates and street expectations. The company posted a

loss of `69cr mainly on account of `108cr restructuring loss at its Belgium unit

(since most of the transformers had to be reworked at Hungary unit due toproduct defects). The company also incurred an additional loss of`121cr towards

VRS package of 199 redundant workers.

The companys international business has been a

drag on its consolidated margins over the last few quarters. However, standalone

margins were propping up the consolidated margins during these quarters. But in

3QFY2013, CGs standalone margins also disappointed, contracting by 320bp

yoy to 7.6%. The contraction in margins was on account of revenue deferral and

shutdown of Nasik plant (due to an accident).

The consolidated order intake for 3QFY2013 has come in at `2,267cr, a yoy

decline of 33%. This is on account of a 41% yoy decline in order intake in the

Power Systems segment to `1,728cr, although a 17% yoy growth in Industrialsegments order intake at `539cr did offset the impact partially. The order

backlog stood at`9,200cr, increasing 15% yoy.

Although the company is expected to register a healthy

11-12% yoy sales growth, supported by healthy order backlog, its operating margins

are expected to remain under pressure for the next few quarters. On a positive note,

the Management has indicated that all exceptional losses due to Belgium units

restructuring have been accounted for and the company is expected to save up to

14mn euros/year on account of the same. We are of the opinion that CGs margins

will bottom out in FY2013 and we expect the operating margin to gradually improve

over the next 14 to 18 months. Given the attractive valuation (stock trading at 0.5x

FY2014E EV/Sales compared to its five year trading range of 0.6x to 1.6x and

median of 1.1x),

% chg 9.5 12.4 7.9 13.6

% chg 12.4 (59.7) (43.2) 108.0

EBITDA (%) 13.4 7.1 3.8 6.3

P/E (x) 7.4 18.4 32.4 15.6

P/BV (x) 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.7

RoE (%) 32.1 10.9 5.8 11.5

RoCE (%) 33.7 13.4 5.3 13.6

EV/Sales (x) 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5

EV/EBITDA (x) 4.9 8.5 15.2 8.4


CMP `107

Target Price `129

Investment Period 12 months

Stock Info

Sector

Net Debt (` cr) 202

Bloomberg Code

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters 41.7

MF / Banks / Indian Fls 21.8

FII / NRIs / OCBs 18.6

Indian Public / Others 17.9

Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

Sensex 7.5 15.7 21.6

CG (14.5) (19.7) (56.9)

Reuters Code CRG.BO

CRG@IN

BSE Sensex 19,895

Nifty 6,035

Avg. Daily Volume 433,546

Face Value (`) 2

Beta 1.3

52 Week High / Low 167/100

Capital Goods

Market Cap (` cr) 6,858

022-39357800 Ext: 6839

[email protected]

Performance Highlights

3QFY2013 Result Update | Capital Goods

January 31, 2013


2/12

Crompton Greaves | 3QFY2013 Result Update

January 31, 2013 2

Exhibit 1:Quarterly performance (consolidated)

Other operating income - - - - -

Stock adjustments (78) 406 (53) (428) 489

Raw Material 2,135 1,723 23.9 2,025 5.4 6,332 5,088 24.4

(% of total income) 69.2 70.3 (1.1) 67.4 67.8 68.3

Employee Cost 440 393 12.0 442 (0.4) 1,303 1,072 21.5

(% of total income) 14.8 13.0 15.1 15.0 13.1

Other Expenses 473 323 46.5 374 26.3 1,195 931 28.4

(% of total income) 15.9 10.7 12.8 18.9 18.3

(EBITDA %) 0.1 6.0 (597) 4.7 3.5 7.2

Interest 21 11 89.3 19 12.1 50 32 54.7

Depreciation 57 63 (9.7) 54 3.9 158 196 (19.6)

Other Income 30 15 96.3 21 46.2 70 52 35.0

PBT (%) (1.5) 4.1 2.9 1.9 5.1

Total Tax 23 49 (53.2) 41 (44.9) 109 143 (23.7)

(% of PBT) (50.1) 39.2 49.3 64.7 34.4

PAT Margins(%) (6.4) 2.5 1.4 0.7 3.3

Extra ordinary exp/(inc) 121 0 0 121 -


Exhibit 2:Actual vs Estimates

EBITDA 2 171 (98.8)



3/12


January 31, 2013 3

Exhibit 3:Segment-wise performance (Standalone)

Power Systems 670 754 (11.2) 624 7.5 1,889 1,922 (1.7)Consumer Products 607 503 20.6 584 3.9 1,845 1,527 20.8

Industrial Systems 376 389 (3.1) 389 (3.3) 1,104 1,127 (2.0)

Others 103 2 5,244.0 91 13.1 280 8 3,509.4

Power Systems 53 81 (34.6) 62 (14.0) 171 220 (22.2)

Consumer Products 63 59 6.9 56 13.7 204 189 8.0

Industrial Systems 58 57 1.6 60 (4.2) 161 173 (7.3)

Others 2 0 1,085.0 6 (63.3) 13 1 1,403.6

Power Systems 36.9 45.8 36.9 36.9 41.9

Consumer Products 34.6 30.5 34.6 36.1 33.3

Industrial Systems 23.1 23.6 23.1 21.6 24.6

Others 5.4 0.1 5.4 5.5 0.2

Power Systems 9.9 10.7 9.9 9.1 11.4



Others 7.1 10.4 7.1 4.5 10.8



4/12


January 31, 2013 4

Exhibit 4:Segment-wise performance (Consolidated)

Power Systems 1,818 2,069 (12.1) 1,782 2.0 5,276 5,347 (1.3)Consumer Products 607 503 20.6 584 3.9 1,845 1,527 20.8

Industrial Systems 452 503 (10.2) 482 (6.2) 1,338 1,349 (0.8)

Others 106 5 2,245.4 94 12.2 290 16 1,707.4

Power Systems (105) 52 (302.0) 10 (1,145.6) (52) 185 (127.9)

Consumer Products 63 59 6.9 56 13.7 204 189 8.0

Industrial Systems 51 49 2.8 70 (27.7) 158 156 1.0

Others 3 1 236.0 7 (61.9) 13 3 414.6

Power Systems 60.9 67.2 60.6 60.3 64.9



Others 3.6 0.1 3.2 3.3 0.2

Power Systems (5.8) 2.5 0.6 (1.0) 3.5



Others 2.4 16.6 7.0 4.5 15.8


Belgium restructuring leads to losses in overseas business

CGs overseas business has suffered on account of slowdown in Europe and

transfer of orders from Belgium unit to Hungary unit, leading to execution delays.

Consequently, International revenues are down 14.4% yoy to `1,226cr in

3QFY2013.

The employee cost of CGs international subsidiaries remains high at ~28% of

total revenues compared to only ~6% for the standalone business. In order to

rationalize employee cost, the company has reduced 199 jobs (total of 730employees) and transferred orders from Belgium unit to the Hungary unit to avail

to lower labor costs. The restructuring of Belgium operations led to a loss of

`108cr in 3QFY2013 (since most of the transformers had to be reworked at the

Hungary unit due to product defects) at the EBITDA level, dragging the

consolidated OPM by 597bp yoy to 0.1%. Consequently, the company reported an

overall loss of `69cr in 3QFY2013 in its bottom-line. In addition, the company

incurred a further one-off loss of `121cr on account of VRS package offered to

outgoing workers.

The Management has indicated that all exceptional losses due to Belgium units

restructuring have been accounted for and the company is expected to save up to14mn euros/year on account of the same.


5/12

Crom pton Greaves | 3Q FY20 13 Resul t Upda te

January 31, 201 3 5

Exhibit 5 :Employee expenses as % of t otal revenueremain high for International business

Source: Compa ny, Angel Research

Exhibit 6 :Belgium Restructuring has led to losses ininternational subsidiary

Source: Compa ny, A ngel Research

Standalone business margin disappoints

Although international b usiness has been a drag on C G s consolidated m arg ins in

the last few quarters, standalone margins were propping up the consolidated

m argins during these quarters. However, in 3Q FY201 3, CG s standalon e marg ins

also disappointed, contracting by 320bp yoy to 7.6%. The contraction in margins

was on account of revenue deferral and shutdown of Nashik plant (due to an

accident).

The companys standalone revenue posted a subdued 7.4% yoy growth to

` 1,74 6cr m ainly on a ccount of a sharp decl ine of 11 .2% yoy in the Power system s

segment to ` 670cr. Though Power Grid Corporation of India (PGCIL) orders have

retained traction in spite of slowdown in generation capacity addition, CG has

seen intense competition from domestic as well as Chinese and Korean

comp anies, which ha s imp acted its m arket share and ma rgins.

Exhibit 7 :Consolidated: EBITDA and EBITDA margin

Source: Compa ny, Angel Research

Exhibit 8 :Standalone: EBITDA and EBITDA margin

Source: Compa ny, A ngel Research

Consumer products

For the Consumer products segment, the company reported a robust revenuegrowth of 20.6% yoy to ` 607cr in 3Q FY2013 (`503cr in corresponding quarter

last year) on a con solid ated ba sis. How ever, the O PM contracted by 13 4b p yoy to

10.4% (probably due to higher promotional expenses in festive season).

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

3Q

FY10

4Q

FY10

1Q

FY11

2Q

FY11

3Q

FY11

4Q

FY11

1Q

FY12

2Q

FY12

3Q

FY12

4Q

FY12

1Q

FY13

2Q

FY13

3Q

FY13

Interna tio na l Sub s Sta nd alo ne b usiness

11.4

14.8

9 .210 .7 11.2 9 .5

(0.5)

5 .1

0 .5 1 .4 0 .7(0.8)

(10.6)(17)

(12)

(7)

(2)

3

8

13

18

(1,500)

(1 ,000)

(500)

-

500

1 ,000

1 ,500

3Q

FY10

4Q

FY10

1Q

FY11

2Q

FY11

3Q

FY11

4Q

FY11

1Q

FY12

2Q

FY12

3Q

FY12

4Q

FY12

1Q

FY13

2Q

FY13

3Q

FY13

EBIDTA (`cr ) EBIDTA Margins (%)

14.2

16.1

12.913.9 14 .2

12.8

7 .5

8 .4

6. 0 6 .9 5 .94 .7

0 .1

0 .0

4 .0

8 .0

12 .0

16 .0

20 .0

-

90

180

270

360

450

3Q

FY10

4Q

FY10

1Q

FY11

2Q

FY11

3Q

FY11

4Q

FY11

1Q

FY12

2Q

FY12

3Q

FY12

4Q

FY12

1Q

FY13

2Q

FY13

3Q

FY13

EBITDA (` cr, LHS) EBITDAM (%, RHS)

16.6 16.715.6 16.0

16 .315.0

12 .711.1 10 .8 10.2 9 .5

8 .8

7 .6

0 .0

4 .0

8 .0

12.0

16.0

20.0

-

90

180

270

360

3Q

FY10

4Q

FY10

1Q

FY11

2Q

FY11

3Q

FY11

4Q

FY11

1Q

FY12

2Q

FY12

3Q

FY12

4Q

FY12

1Q

FY13

2Q

FY13

3Q

FY13

EBITDA ( ` cr , LHS) EBITDAM ( %, RHS)


6/12


January 31, 2013 6

Industrial Systems- Capex slowdown taking a toll

The Industrial systems segments revenue declined by 10.2% yoy on a consolidated

basis to `452cr, due to capex slowdown in sectors like cement, power, among

others. However, the Management has indicated that industrial segment should

see some recovery in the next quarter. On the margins front, the Industrial systems

segment witnessed expansion in EBIT margin by 143bp yoy to 11.3%.

The consolidated order intake for 3QFY2013 was `2,267cr, a yoy

decline of 33%, driven by 41% yoy decline in the Power system segment to

`1,728cr, offset to a small extent by 17% yoy growth in Industrial segment to

`539cr. The order backlog stood at`9,200cr, increasing 15% yoy.

Exhibit 9:Decent show on Order inflow front


Exhibit 10:Order backlog provides decent visibility


A play on margin recovery

Revival in International subsidiaries key to margin expansion:

CGs power and industrial segment are facing several headwinds on the

international and domestic business fronts. As far as the domestic Power segment

(standalone) is concerned, even though PGCIL orders have retained traction, CG

has been facing intense competition leading to falling margins as well as declining

market share. CGs overseas business has suffered on account of slowdown in

Europe and transfer of orders from the Belgium unit to Hungary unit, leading to

execution delays. The restructuring at Belgium unit has been a drag on profitabilityof the company. However, we are of the opinion that CGs margins will bottom out

in FY2013 and we expect operating margin to gradually improve over the next 14

to 18 months.

Outlook and valuation

Although the company is expected to register a healthy 11-12% yoy sales growth,

supported by healthy order backlog, its operating margins are expected to remain

under pressure for the next few quarters. On a positive note, the Management has

indicated that all exceptional losses due to Belgium units restructuring have been

accounted for and the company is expected to save up to 14mn euros/year onaccount of the same. We are of the opinion that CGs margins will bottom out in

FY2013 and we expect the operating margin to gradually improve over the next

14 to 18 months. Given the attractive valuations (stock trading at 0.5x FY2014E

2,0

52

2,5

88

1,7

04

2,2

60

3,4

01

2,8

96

2,7

18

2575

2267

-

700

1,400

2,100

2,800

3,500

4,200

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY12

1QFY13

2QFY13

3QFY13

(`cr)

7,0

17

7,1

65

7,0

88

7,1

20

8,0

00

8366

9172

9400

9200

15

12

4

0

1417

29

32

15

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

-

1,500

3,000

4,500

6,000

7,500

9,000

10,500

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY12

1QFY13

2QFY13

3QFY13

%(`cr)


7/12


January 31, 2013 7

EV/Sales compared to its five year trading range of 0.6x to 1.6x and median of

1.1x) ,

Exhibit 11:One-year forward P/E band


Exhibit 12:Peer comparison

ABB* Reduce 651 573 (11.9) 5.2 4.5 74.9 29.5 59.1 7.1 16.5

BHEL Neutral 228 - - 2.8 2.4 9.3 10.4 (13.2) 33.5 24.5

BGR Energy Neutral 243 - - 9.9 9.0 9.9 9.0 (7.1) 0.0 0.0

Jyoti Structures Buy 41 51 26.3 0.5 0.4 4.4 3.5 2.2 11.3 12.7

KEC International Buy 61 78 28.4 1.3 1.1 11.4 6.9 3.9 17.0 23.6

Thermax Neutral 580 - - 3.7 3.2 20.5 18.8 (4.5) 19.3 18.4

Source: Company, Angel Research Note*: December year end.

Company Background

Crompton Greaves (CG), part of the US$4bn Avantha Group, is one of the

leading players in the power T&D equipment business in India. The company

operates across three segments - power systems, consumer products and industrial

systems. CG is a globally diversified company and derives ~50% of its order

backlog from international operations, led by a series of acquisitions undertaken

over FY2006-11. Europe and North America are the two biggest markets outside

Asia and jointly account for ~45% of the company's order backlog.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Jan-0

7

May-0

7

Sep-0

7

Jan-0

8

May-0

8

Sep-0

8

Jan-0

9

May-0

9

Sep-0

9

Jan-1

0

May-1

0

Sep-1

0

Jan-1

1

May-1

1

Sep-1

1

Jan-1

2

May-1

2

Sep-1

2

Jan-1

3

Share Price (`) 6x 12x 18x 24x


8/12


January 31, 2013 8

Profit & Loss statement (consolidated)

% chg 27.9 4.6 9.5 12.4 7.9 13.6

% chg 33.8 28.3 5.2 -40% -43% 89%

(% of Net Sales) 11.4 14.0 13.4 7.1 3.8 6.3

Depreciation 122 155 194 260 229 248

EBIT 874 1,122 1,150 544 232 625

% chg 41.5 28.4 2.5 (52.7) (57.3) 168.8

(% of Net Sales) 10.0 12.3 11.5 4.8 1.9 4.5

Interest & other Charges 81 43 34 57 74 76

Other Income 74 110 113 63 90 102

(% of PBT) 8.5 9.2 9.2 11.4 36.1 15.7

Recurring PBT 867 1,189 1,229 550 248 651

% chg 40.9 37.1 3.4 (55.3) (54.9) 162.2

Extraordinary Inc/(exp) 0 35 (38) 0 (121) 0

Tax 305 365 310 182 42 216

(% of PBT) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

PAT (reported) 563 824 919 368 206 435

Add: Share of earnings of asso. (1) 3 8 5 5 5

Less: Minority interest (MI) 2 3 0.4 (1) (1) (1)

Prior period items 0 0 0.0 0 0 0

% chg 54.8 47.3 12.4 (59.7) (43.2) 108.0

(% of Net Sales) 6.4 9.0 9.3 3.3 1.7 3.2

% chg 1,448.0 (15.8) 12.4 (59.7) (43.2) 108.0

Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable withprevious year numbers


9/12


January 31, 2013 9

Balance Sheet (consolidated)

Equity Share Capital 73 128 128 128 128 128Preference Capital - - - - - -

Reserves & Surplus 1,758 2,376 3,146 3,483 3,544 3,858

Minority Interest 14 4 16 16 16 16

Total Loans 718 501 395 985 985 985

Deferred Tax Liability 85 95 124 136 136 136

Others - - 266 235 235 235

Gross Block 3,029 2,986 3,780 4,409 4,959 5,509

Less: Acc. Depreciation 1,704 1,723 1,943 2,261 2,490 2,738

Capital Work-in-Progress 54 114 104 110 109 109

Goodwill - - - - - -

Deferred Tax Asset 133 90 108 187 187 187

Cash 566 669 298 498 331 28

Loans & Advances 229 246 436 522 566 639

Inventories 1,095 1,041 1,189 1,223 1,297 1,436

Debtors 2,056 2,146 2,543 3,143 3,325 3,854

Others 105 300 501 649 661 683

Current liabilities 2,976 3,017 3,213 3,783 4,186 4,549

Mis. Exp. not written off - - - - - -



10/12


January 31, 2013 10

Cash Flow Statement (consolidated)

Depreciation 122 155 194 260 229 248(Inc)/Dec in Working Capital 6 54 (507) (228) 93 (400)

Others 166 (50) (15) 75 74 76

Direct taxes paid (217) (292) (334) (244) (42) (216)

(Inc.)/Dec.in Fixed Assets (201) (290) (746) (372) (550) (465)

(Inc.)/Dec. in Investments (120) (294) (10) (90) - -

Other income - - - - - -

Issue of Equity - - - - - -

Inc./(Dec.) in loans (137) (217) (38) 423 - -

Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (81) (116) (119) (119) (24) (121)

Others (83) (45) (14) (55) (74) (76)

Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 321 94 (361) 199 (167) (302)



11/12


January 31, 2013 11

Key Ratios

P/E (on FDEPS) 7.0 8.3 7.4 18.4 32.4 15.6P/CEPS 5.8 7.0 6.1 10.8 15.6 10.0

P/BV 2.2 2.8 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.7

Dividend yield (%) 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.5 0.3 1.8

EV/Sales 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5

EV/EBITDA 4.0 5.0 4.9 8.5 15.2 8.4

EV / Total Assets 1.5 2.1 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4

OB/Sales 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4

EPS (Basic) 15.3 12.9 14.4 5.8 3.3 6.9

EPS (fully diluted) 15.3 12.9 14.4 5.8 3.3 6.9

Cash EPS 18.6 15.3 17.5 9.9 6.9 10.7

DPS 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.6 0.4 1.9

Book Value 49.5 38.8 50.8 56.3 57.2 62.1

EBIT margin 10.0 12.3 11.5 4.8 1.9 4.5

Tax retention ratio (%) 99.6 99.7 99.7 99.7 99.7 99.7

Asset turnover (x) 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.6

RoIC (Pre-tax) 18.6 22.6 20.1 7.9 3.0 7.3

RoIC (Post-tax) 18.5 22.5 20.1 7.8 3.0 7.2

Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 10.3 7.0 7.6 8.2 7.5 7.7

Leverage (x) 0.2 (0.1) (0.1) (0.0) 0.0 0.1

Operating ROE 20.2 21.0 18.4 7.9 2.9 7.2

RoCE (Pre-tax) 35.9 39.0 33.7 13.4 5.3 13.6

Angel RoIC (Pre-tax) 18.8 22.9 20.5 8.0 3.0 7.4

RoE 35.7 38.0 32.1 10.9 5.8 11.5

Asset Turnover (Gross Block) (x) 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.6

Inventory / Sales (days) 45.1 42.6 40.7 39.1 37.9 36.2

Receivables (days) 78.9 83.9 85.5 92.3 97.3 95.0

Payables (days) 132.4 139.1 133.2 130.3 136.1 133.8WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) 21.4 24.4 36.9 43.1 39.3 38.6

Net debt to Equity 0.0 (0.2) (0.1) (0.0) 0.0 0.1

Net debt to EBITDA 0.0 (0.4) (0.2) (0.0) 0.3 0.5

Interest Coverage 10.8 26.2 33.5 9.6 3.1 8.2



12/12


January 31 2013 12

Research Team Tel: 022 3935 7800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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Disclosure of Interest Statement Crompton Greaves

1. Analyst ownership of the stock No

2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No

3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No

4. Broking relationship with company covered No

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.

Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)

Documents

Crompton Greaves, 1st February 2013