Cost-benefit and feasibility analysis for establishing a foot and mouth disease free zone in Rukwa region in Tanzania STDF/PPG/516

Barbara Häsler1 , Kevin Queenan1, Jonathan Rushton2, James Mlangwa3

1Royal Veterinary College London, UK 2University of Liverpool, UK 3Sokoine University of Agriculture, UK

Acknowledgments

Standards and Trade Development Facility

Dr Joram Mghwira and Dr Michael Madege, Department of Veterinary Services,

Ministry of Livestock and Fisheries Development, Tanzania

Dr Yona Sinkala - CVO, Zambia

Dr Muyeye Mululuma from the Zambian Veterinary Services

Kaini M Kamwela, Officer in charge Zonal Veterinary Centre, Sumbawanga, Tanzania

Value chain actors at all stages

Academic colleagues in UK and Tanzania

Aim and scope

Aim: to estimate the costs and benefits of establishing an FMD-free zone

in Tanzania

Including consideration of the following:

Target livestock products and markets to determine demand and trade benefits

of the establishment of an FMD-zone

Livestock population, productivity level, potential access to markets,

access to slaughterhouses and processing plants of the proposed zone

Human resource needs and infrastructural requirements related to upfront

and ongoing costs

The environmental impact of this FMD-free zone from a conservation and

tourism point of view

Experiences in other countries

Alternative investments for FMD management

Approach

Part 1: Scoping visit Tanzania (September 2016) • Semi-structured interviews and secondary data collection to gain overview of the geographic,

livestock, human population, socio-economic, disease, infrastructure, governance and service characteristics

Part 2: • Primary and secondary data collection and analysis by the national and international consultants

• Updating of the national control plan by MALF members

• Development of cost-benefit analysis models

Part 3: Second visit to Tanzania (March 2017) • Discussion of progress, addressing of data gaps

• Full analyses, report writing

Part 4: Study tour to Zambia in July 2017 • Meeting with the Zambian Chief Veterinary Officer and the coordinator of the Disease Control Unit,

visit of laboratory facilities at the Central Veterinary Research Institute

• Visit to Mbala (Northern Province) to review planned locations of veterinary quarantine and loading ramps on the Zambian side of the border

• Visit of Tanzanian border crossing

Part 5: Preparation of final report

Why Rukwa region?

Geographical location

Potential for livestock production

Infrastructure for livestock production

Public/private partnerships

District council

Producers cooperative

Kalambo ranch

and blocks

Nkundi ranch

Border market

Beef producer

Primary market

Regional administration

secretariat

South Western Zone Veterinary

Centre

SAAFI abattoir

SWA municipality director

Mbala Abattoir, Zambia

(Study tour)

Dominance of small-scale cattle holders

Small-scale: 33,155/39,367 = 84.3%

Medium-scale: 4,896/39,367= 12.4%

Large-scale: 1,316/39,367= 3.3%

Agropastoralist system

Cattle has major importance in cultivation/traction

Many castrated animals, low offtake rates

Selling of animals based on needs, little commercial interest

Store of wealth

Social capital

Conflicts between crop-producers and livestock keepers over land use; exacerbated by influx of new animals

FMD occurrence perceived to be low, CBPP more important

Kalambo ranch

NARCO ranch, since 1974

23,526 hectares of land for its own use

660 cattle, Boran and Boran-Friesian

Slaughter on ranch, sell to butchers

Rents 13 blocks of land (2000-4000 ha each) to producers for livestock keeping, 764 to >1500 animals per block

Nkundi ranch

Since 2004, former multiplication unit

16,800 acres of land

714 cattle, Boran-zebu cross-breeds

Part of SAAFI operations, delivered to SAAFI abattoir

Market dynamics

Lack of market opportunities mentioned by all

Small proportion of animals stays within Rukwa region for

local slaughter, breeding or traction

Major flux to Zambeef and Dayow Beef abattoirs in Zambia

and abattoirs outside the region

SAAFI – Sumbawanga Agricultural and Animal Food

Industries Limited

• Abattoir with capacity of 150 heads per shift, 300 heads per day

• Modern facilities with slaughter line, processing and packaging

unit (incl. meat cuts), cold storage including cold transport

• Rendering plant for all by-products

• SAAFI ranch

• Good business in 2007 and 2008

• Current operations: zero

Cost-benefit analysis

FMD control plan

Staged approach

• Year 1: Implementation of vaccination in Nkundi and Kalambo ranches including all of Nkasi

district

• Year 2: Implementation of vaccination expanded to Sumbawanga, both the district and the

municipality

• Years 3 to 10: Vaccination of the whole region

Surveillance

• Support FMD control in the designated ranches by ensuring that all FMD clinical disease and

suspect cases are reported

• Identify the virus strains involved to inform vaccine matching

• Surveillance area: All of district

Costs and benefits considered

Intervention costs

Vaccination campaign

• Vaccines and materials

• Vehicles

• Staff

• Communication

• Storage

Surveillance system

• Stakeholder training

• Communication campaign

• Training of health officials

• Equipment

• Sampling

• Testing

• Border check points

Benefits

Production loss avoidance in

livestock populations, i.e. avoidance

of losses due to

• mortality

• abortion

• reduced milk yield

• reduced weight gain

• loss of traction

Expenditure reduction, i.e. decrease

in expenditures for palliative

treatment

Reduction in outbreak investigation

costs

BCR

NPV

Comparison

with trade

income

Results cost-benefit analysis

[m TSh] 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Total intervention

costs

undiscounted

3673 7206 8695 8929 9179 9439 9706 9967 10252 10541

Total benefits

undiscounted 216 504 659 843 843 843 843 843 843 843

Benefit cost ratio Median 0.09; 90% central range 0.07 to 0.11

Net present value In million TSh: Median -63,500; 90% central range -73.500 to -54.800

In million USD: Median -28.59; 90% central range -33.07 to -24.66

→ a 53% increase in price for export quality hindquarter cuts would be needed to cover the shortfall

Feasibility considerations

Feasibility considerations

Vaccine production and vaccine supply chains

Capacity of veterinary services

Awareness and commitment from official bodies

Porous internal and external borders, livestock movements (incl. illegal movements)

Value addition outside country; disconnected supply chains

Market opportunities questionable

Enforceable movement control and surveillance measures dependent on livestock

identification, but Tanzanian Livestock Identification and Traceability System (LITS)

not rolled out yet to Rukwa region

Strong local champion / continuity / sustainability

Funding

Recommendations

Recommendations

Refine the existing national FMD control plan and reconnect with the FAO’s Progressive Control Pathway (PCP)

Identify champions who can assume leadership and initiate next steps and make them happen

Conduct research into understanding the offtake rates and incentivising farmers

Create stable market opportunities, connect demand and supply across different stakeholders in the system

Enable the rolling out of LITS

Promote private public partnerships

Include other diseases in control efforts, use synergies

Thank you for your attention!