Climate data, Trends and Scenarios in Sri Lanka AS-12 Senaka Basnayake Center for Climate Change...
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Climate data, Trends and Climate data, Trends and Scenarios in Sri Lanka Scenarios in Sri Lanka AS-12 AS-12 Senaka Basnayake Center for Climate Change Studies (CCCS) Department of Meteorology Colombo Sri Lanka
Climate data, Trends and Scenarios in Sri Lanka AS-12 Senaka Basnayake Center for Climate Change Studies (CCCS) Department of Meteorology Colombo Sri Lanka
Climate data, Trends and Scenarios in Sri Lanka AS-12 Senaka
Basnayake Center for Climate Change Studies (CCCS) Department of
Meteorology Colombo Sri Lanka
Slide 2
Outline of the Presentation Meteorological data required Trend
analysis performed Encountered & anticipated problems of
climate scenario development
Slide 3
Overall Objectives Project the climate change scenarios in the
coconut and tea growing areas based on the Global Circulation Model
results relevant to South Asia.
Slide 4
CLIMATE DATA
Slide 5
Required climate data Temperature (1961-1990) -Minimum -Maximum
-Mean Rainfall (1961-1990) At time resolutions Daily Monthly At
spatial resolutions Farm level National NCEP Re-analysis
(1961-1990) HISTORICAL DATA
Slide 6
Global Circulation Model outputs 2020, 2050 At time resolutions
Daily Monthly At spatial resolutions Regional level FUTURE DATA
Required climate data contd.
Slide 7
Slide 8
Map of Sri Lanka showing tea and coconut growing area Tea
Coconut
Slide 9
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Slide 13
TREND ANALYSIS
Slide 14
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TREND ANALYSIS FOR TEA GROWING AREAS
Slide 16
TREND ANALYSIS FOR TEA GROWING AREAS contd.
Slide 17
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Slide 19
TREND ANALYSIS FOR COCONUT GROWING AREAS
Slide 20
TREND ANALYSIS FOR COCONUT GROWING AREAS contd.
Slide 21
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SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT
Slide 23
Scenario Development Baseline Climate Dynamical Methods Direct
GCM Or interpolated GCM Validation Regenalisation
Slide 24
Downscaling in Brief
Slide 25
Criteria for selection of Downscaling method 1.Availability
2.Suitability/Feasibility Therefore SDSM has been selected
Slide 26
SDSM ( Statistical Downscaling Method) This has an ability to
develop climate scenarios at a single-site of daily surface climate
variables under current and future climate forcing.
Slide 27
Baseline Climatological data (1961-1990) NCEP Reanalysis data
(1961-1990) Global Circulation Model (2020 and 2050) Data input for
SDSM
Slide 28
Problems encountered Lack of computerized data (some data still
in hard copies) Downloading of NCEP and GCM from other web sites
was also not possible, Because it gives outputs for the whole globe
but not for the area which we are interested. Downloading NCEP and
GCM data has to be postponed for about two months due to the delay
of establishment of Canadian web site on NCEP/GCM data to the area
which covers Sri Lanka. These will be made available at
http://www.cics.uvic.ca in near future
Slide 29
Problems anticipated Since SDSM generates site specific
scenarios, spatial interpolations will have to be carried out to
get the spatial distribution over a particular area or country
GIS/Surfer will be used to overcome this problem
