20
Relevant Independent Objecve 34 rigs from the previous week and down 585 rigs from the previous year. Offshore rigs remain unchanged from the previous week and are down 19 rigs over the previous year, while inland waters’ rigs are unchanged from the previous week, but are down 10 rigs from the previous year. Table 1.1 shows the rig count in the United States, as well as oil- and gas-directed drilling acvity. Table 1.1: Rig Count in the United States Source: WTRG Economics 1 Figure 1.1 illustrates the total US rotary rig count between January 2012 and present. The monthly averages decreased dramacally from 1,930 rigs in September 2014 to 1,109 rigs in March 2015. In terms of weekly averages, total US rotary rig count decreased from 1,929 rigs as of week ending November 21, 2014 to 954 rigs as of April 17, 2015. This is the lowest rig count since July 31, 2009. Figure 1.1: US Rotary Rig Count – Total Acve Rigs Source: Energy Economist 2 March 2015 CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas Analyzing Rig In-Acvity Paul Kralovic Despite the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price rebounding from a low of US$43.39 per barrel on March 17, 2015 to US$55.26 per barrel on April 21, 2015, the lower prices are creang uncertainty for producers. And with capital spending budgets being reduced among oil and gas producers, nowhere is the impact being felt more than drilling acvity. It is hard to imagine that between August 29, 2014 and December 5, 2014 total US rig acvity – 15 consecuve weeks – exceeded the 1,900-level. In the past 4 months, however, along with the decrease in the price of crude oil, rig acvity has plummeted to below 1,000 rigs. The same story rings true in Canada. When natural gas prices fell several years ago, producers tended to focus their aenon to oil-directed drilling. With both commodies in a lower price environment, the reducon of capital spending will likely affect both industries. This arcle delves deeper into North American drilling acvity – both in the US and Canada – and what it may mean for the industry. US Drilling Acvity The total rotary rig count in the US is 954, as of the week of April 17, 2015, down 34 rigs from the previous week and down 877 rigs from the same me last year – a decrease of 47.9 percent. The total includes 3 classificaons: offshore, land and inland. As of April 17, 2015, there are 33 rigs offshore, 921 land-based and 4 rigs that are located in inland waters. Land rigs are down CERI Commodity Report – Natural Gas Editor-in-Chief: Dinara Millington ([email protected]) Contents Featured Arcle ................................................................................. 1 Natural Gas Prices.............................................................................. 6 Weather ............................................................................................ 8 Consumpon and Producon............................................................. 10 Transportaon................................................................................... 12 Storage .............................................................................................. 14 Liquefied Natural Gas ........................................................................ 17 Drilling Acvity .................................................................................. 19 US Rig Count Change Percent Change 04/17/2015 04/10/2015 04/18/2014 Weekly Annual Weekly Annual Total U.S. 954 988 1,831 (34) (877) -3.4% -47.9% Offshore 33 33 52 0 (19) 0.0% -36.5% Land 921 955 1,779 (34) (858) -3.6% -48.2% Inland Waters 4 4 14 0 (10) 0.0% -71.4% Oil 734 760 1,510 (26) (776) -3.4% -51.4% Percent 76.9% 76.9% 82.5% 0.0% -5.5% Gas 217 225 316 (8) (99) -3.6% -31.3% Percent 22.7% 22.8% 17.3% -0.0% 5.5% U.S. & Canada 1,034 1,087 2,030 (53) (996) -4.9% -49.1%

CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas · March 2015 CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas Analyzing Rig In-Activity Paul Kralovic Despite the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price

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Page 1: CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas · March 2015 CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas Analyzing Rig In-Activity Paul Kralovic Despite the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price

Relevant • Independent • Objective

34 rigs from the previous week and down 585 rigs from the previous year. Offshore rigs remain unchanged from the previous week and are down 19 rigs over the previous year, while inland waters’ rigs are unchanged from the previous week, but are down 10 rigs from the previous year. Table 1.1 shows the rig count in the United States, as well as oil- and gas-directed drilling activity. Table 1.1: Rig Count in the United States

Source: WTRG Economics1 Figure 1.1 illustrates the total US rotary rig count between January 2012 and present. The monthly averages decreased dramatically from 1,930 rigs in September 2014 to 1,109 rigs in March 2015. In terms of weekly averages, total US rotary rig count decreased from 1,929 rigs as of week ending November 21, 2014 to 954 rigs as of April 17, 2015. This is the lowest rig count since July 31, 2009. Figure 1.1: US Rotary Rig Count – Total Active Rigs

Source: Energy Economist2

March 2015

CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas

Analyzing Rig In-Activity Paul Kralovic Despite the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price rebounding from a low of US$43.39 per barrel on March 17, 2015 to US$55.26 per barrel on April 21, 2015, the lower prices are creating uncertainty for producers. And with capital spending budgets being reduced among oil and gas producers, nowhere is the impact being felt more than drilling activity. It is hard to imagine that between August 29, 2014 and December 5, 2014 total US rig activity – 15 consecutive weeks – exceeded the 1,900-level. In the past 4 months, however, along with the decrease in the price of crude oil, rig activity has plummeted to below 1,000 rigs. The same story rings true in Canada. When natural gas prices fell several years ago, producers tended to focus their attention to oil-directed drilling. With both commodities in a lower price environment, the reduction of capital spending will likely affect both industries. This article delves deeper into North American drilling activity – both in the US and Canada – and what it may mean for the industry. US Drilling Activity The total rotary rig count in the US is 954, as of the week of April 17, 2015, down 34 rigs from the previous week and down 877 rigs from the same time last year – a decrease of 47.9 percent. The total includes 3 classifications: offshore, land and inland. As of April 17, 2015, there are 33 rigs offshore, 921 land-based and 4 rigs that are located in inland waters. Land rigs are down

CERI Commodity Report – Natural Gas Editor-in-Chief: Dinara Millington ([email protected]) Contents Featured Article ................................................................................. 1 Natural Gas Prices.............................................................................. 6 Weather ............................................................................................ 8 Consumption and Production............................................................. 10 Transportation................................................................................... 12 Storage .............................................................................................. 14 Liquefied Natural Gas ........................................................................ 17 Drilling Activity .................................................................................. 19

US Rig Count Change Percent Change

04/17/2015 04/10/2015 04/18/2014 Weekly Annual Weekly Annual

Total U.S. 954 988 1,831 (34) (877) -3.4% -47.9%

Offshore 33 33 52 0 (19) 0.0% -36.5%

Land 921 955 1,779 (34) (858) -3.6% -48.2%

Inland Waters 4 4 14 0 (10) 0.0% -71.4%

Oil 734 760 1,510 (26) (776) -3.4% -51.4%

Percent 76.9% 76.9% 82.5% 0.0% -5.5%

Gas 217 225 316 (8) (99) -3.6% -31.3%

Percent 22.7% 22.8% 17.3% -0.0% 5.5%

U.S. & Canada 1,034 1,087 2,030 (53) (996) -4.9% -49.1%

Page 2: CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas · March 2015 CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas Analyzing Rig In-Activity Paul Kralovic Despite the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price

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Analyzing the oil markets, it’s not a surprise that total oil-directed rigs in the US have been reduced by half, from 1,609 rigs on October 10, 2014 to 734 rigs on April 17, 2015. This is down from 1,510 at the same time last year, or down 51.4 percent. As of April 17, 2015, natural gas rigs decreased to 217, spending 9 consecutive weeks in the 200-level. Natural gas-directed rigs are down 31.3 percent over the last year, when rigs numbered 316. The percentage of gas-directed drilling decreased to less than 20 percent, only rebounding to 22 percent this week due to the dramatic fall in oil rig activity in the past several months. Figure 1.2 illustrates the total US rotary rig count used to drill for natural gas from January 2012 and present. As of April 17, natural gas rigs number a mere 217 rigs and gas-directed drilling accounts for approximately 22 percent. Figure 1.2: US Rotary Rig Count – Drilling for Natural Gas

Source: Energy Economist3

Table 1.2 shows rig activity by trajectory and well depth. Of the total rotary rig count in the US, horizontal drilling is the largest category by trajectory. As of the week of April 17, 2015, there are 741 rigs that utilize horizontal drilling, down 29 rigs from the previous week and down 483 rigs from the same time last year – a decrease of 39.5 percent. As of April 17, 2015, there are 122 vertical rigs and 91 directional rigs. Vertical drilling is down 6 rigs from last week and down 269 rigs from the previous year – a decrease of 68.8 percent. Directional drilling is up 1 rig from the previous week but down 125 rigs from the previous year; this a decrease of 57.9 percent from the previous year.

Table 1.2: Rig Count in the United States by Trajectory and Depth

Source: Baker Hughes4

As illustrated in Table 1.2, US data regarding drilling depth is categorized into 4 groups: under 5,000 ft, 5,000 ft to 10,000 ft, 10,000 ft to 15,000 ft, and over 15,000 ft. It is important to note that regardless of trajectory and well depth, rig activity is down considerably from the previous week and at the same time last year. For example, as of April 17, 2015, rigs under 5,000 ft, 5,000 ft to 10,000 ft, 10,000 ft to 15,000 ft, and over 15,000 ft. are all down from the previous week and down from the same time last year. This trend is mirrored in vertical and directional drilling as well, lending to the fact that the decrease in rig activity is price-based rather than the result of longer drilling lengths resulting in less need for multiple vertical or short horizontal leg wells. Canadian Drilling Activity Canadian drilling activity is not faring much better than its southern neighbor. According to Baker Hughes, the total rotary rig count in Canada is 80 as of the week of April 17, 2015, down 19 rigs from the previous week. This is, however, 119 rigs lower than the same time last year, or a decrease of 59.8 percent. Drilling in both Canada and the United States totaled 1,034 rigs at April 17, 2015, down 996 rigs from the same time last year – a decrease of 49.1 percent.

US Rig Count Change Percent Change

04/17/2015 04/10/2015 04/18/2014 Weekly Annual Weekly Annual

Total U.S. 954 988 1,831 (34) (877) -3.4% -47.9%

Directional 91 90 216 1 -125 1.1% -57.9%

<5k 9 10 34

>15k 19 17 42

10k-15k 33 31 63

5k-10k 30 32 77

Horizontal 741 770 1,224 -29 -483 -3.8% -39.5%

<5k 11 14 63

>15k 180 187 299

10k-15k 302 306 434

5k-10k 248 263 428

Vertical 122 128 391 -6 -269 -4.7% -68.8%

<5k 23 22 62

>15k 8 8 26

10k-15k 52 57 175

5k-10k 39 41 128

Page 3: CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas · March 2015 CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas Analyzing Rig In-Activity Paul Kralovic Despite the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price

Relevant • Independent • Objective

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Table 1.3 shows the rig count in Canada. Table 1.3: Rig Count in Canada

Source: WTRG Economics5

Figure 1.3 illustrates the total Canadian rotary rig count between January 2012 and present. The figure shows the cyclical nature of Canadian drilling rig activity. Spring thaw impacts drilling with annual plunges due to drilling crews needing to move their equipment to avoid environmental damage. That being said, it is clear that the peak of winter drilling activity this past year is considerably lower than in past years, as is the trough of the cycle. Figure 1.3: Canadian Rotary Rig Count – Total Active Rigs

Source: Energy Economist6

Of the 80 active rigs in Canada, as of week ending April 17, 2015, 20 rigs are oil-directed while 60 rigs are gas-directed. Oil-directed rigs are down from 85 rigs at the same time a year ago and gas-directed drilling rigs are down from 114 rigs at the same time last year. That’s down 76.5 percent and 47.4 percent, respectively. Interestingly, due to the rapid decline in oil-directed drilling thus far, as of April 2015, 78.3 percent of the total

drilling are gas-directed, up from a monthly average of 68.7 percent in March 2015 and up from 41.3 percent in March 2014. It is also important to note that rig utilization is only 18 percent in March 2015, down from 49 percent in March 2014. Figure 1.4 illustrates Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) rigs by province since January 2014. There are 49 active rigs in Alberta as of April 20, 2015, the lowest amount since May 4, 2010. This is mirrored by only 4 active rigs in Saskatchewan and 23 rigs in British Columbia, as of April 20, 2015. According to the CAODC, the total average number of active rigs in Alberta is 99 in March, down from 211 in February and down from 272 in January; this is down from 282 rigs in March of last year. And with a week left in April, drilling does not appear to be turning around; the total average number of active rigs in Alberta is 52. The total average number of active rigs in the WCSB is 165 in March, down from 317 in February and down from 388 in January, according to data from the CAODC. Figure 1.4: WCSB Active Rigs by Province – Weekly Average

Source: CAODC and CERI

Figure 1.5 illustrates the number of horizontal wells drilled across Canada thus far in the first quarter. Of the total rotary rig count in Canada, horizontal drilling is the largest category by trajectory. In 1Q2015, 79.1 percent of wells drilled are horizontal, this is up from 72.2 percent of wells in the first quarter of 2014 and 66.0 percent of wells drilled in the first quarter of 2013. Drilling activity in the first quarter of 2015 is 1,906 total wells drilled, of which 1,508 wells are horizontal. This is down significantly from 3,508 total wells drilled in the first quarter of 2014, of which 2,534 were horizontal.

Canadian Rig Count Change Percent Change

04/17/2015 04/10/2015 04/18/2014 Weekly Annual Weekly Annual

Canada 80 99 199 (19) (119) -19.2% -59.8%

Oil 20 20 85 0 (65) 0.0% -76.5%

Percent 25.0% 20.2% 42.7% 4.8% -17.7%

Gas 60 79 114 (19) (54) -24.1% -47.4%

Percent 75.0% 79.8% 57.3% -4.8% 17.7%

U.S. & Canada 1,034 1,087 2,030 (53) (996) -4.9% -49.1%

Page 4: CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas · March 2015 CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas Analyzing Rig In-Activity Paul Kralovic Despite the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price

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Figure 1.5: Horizontal Wells Drilled across Canada in the First Quarter

Source: Daily Oil Bulletin, April 8, 2015

Figure 1.6 illustrates the total metres rig released in the first quarter in western and northern Canada. In the first quarter of 2015, the total number of development and exploratory metres drilled was 4.74 million metres, down from 7.7 million metres in the first quarter of 2014 – a 39 percent decrease. Figure 1.6: Total Meters Rig Released in First Quarter in Western and Northern Canada

Source: Daily Oil Bulletin, April 20, 2015

What Does it All Mean? While technological advancements in horizontal drilling have been profound, affecting the rig count, the significant decreases in rig activity of the past several months is price-based rather than the result of longer drilling lengths, which would require fewer multiple vertical, or short horizontal leg wells. Schlumberger is the latest in a long line of energy companies announcing layoffs. On April 17, 2015, the world’s largest oilfield services provider announced that it plans to cut 11,000 jobs – this is in addition to the 9,000 jobs that it announced they would cut in January of this year.7 The Houston- and Paris-based company is blaming lower prices and lower drilling activity. Other large players facing reductions in their workforce’s include ConocoPhillips, Talisman, Nexen, Baker Hughes, Halliburton and Shell. CAODC’s updated forecast for 2015 estimates a total 6,612 wells will be drilled in Western Canada with drilling contractors recording 76,696 operating days.8 This is downgraded from its original forecast, released at end-November 2014 that estimated 10,354 wells drilled and 119,578 operating days.9 To put this into perspective, 11,226 rigs were released and 11,534 rigs were completed during 2014, up from 2013 when 11,102 rigs were released and 10,847 rigs were completed.10 Drilling contractors recorded a total of 131,021 operating days in 2014,11 an increase from 120,175 operating days in 2013.12 The CAODC estimates that up to 23,000 jobs are threatened if their forecast is realized, including 3,400 direct jobs and up to 19,500 indirect jobs.13 The industry association suggests that a single active drilling rig equals 135 jobs, directly at the rig, indirectly in the service sector and labour-intensive jobs in rural communities near the oil and gas exploration and production.14 The Petroleum Services Association of Canada (PSAC) shares the sentiment. The Calgary-based organization estimates only 7,650 new wells in 2015 in Canada, nearly 2,450 wells, or 24 percent, lower than their original forecast, released in October of last year. Their original 2015 forecast estimated 10,100 wells, but was downgraded due to lower oil and natural gas prices.15

Page 5: CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas · March 2015 CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas Analyzing Rig In-Activity Paul Kralovic Despite the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price

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Endnotes 1WTRG Economics, North American Rotary Rig Counts, http://www.wtrg.com/rotaryrigs.html 2www.energyeconomist.com website, Weekly Rotary Rig Count, http://www.energyeconomist.com/a6257783p/exploration/rotaryrigweekly.html 3ibid 4Baker Hughes, US Rig Count – Total Report, http://gis.bakerhughesdirect.com/Reports/StdRptTotals.aspx 5WTRG Economics, North American Rotary Rig Counts, http://www.wtrg.com/rotaryrigs.html 6www.energyeconomist.com website, Weekly Rotary Rig Count, http://www.energyeconomist.com/a6257783p/exploration/rotaryrigweekly.html 7Powersource website, Schlumberger to cut more jobs, expects delay in U.S. land drilling recovery, http://powersource.post-gazette.com/powersource/companies-powersource/2015/04/17/Schlumberger-to-cut-more-jobs-expects-delay-in-U-S-land-drilling-recovery/stories/201504170294

8CAODC website, CAODC Forecast – 2015, http://www.caodc.ca/caodc-forecast-2015 9ibid 10ibid 11CAODC website, CAODC Drilling Activity 2014, http://www.caodc.ca/caodc-drilling-activity-2014 12CAODC website, CAODC Drilling Activity 2013, http://www.caodc.ca/forecast-2013 13CAODC website, Oil Drillers Buckling Prices Decline, http://www.caodc.ca/media-room/press-releases/oil-drillers-buckling-prices-decline 14CAODC website, Rig Counts, http://www.caodc.ca/rig-counts 15Calgary Herald website, http://calgaryherald.com/business/energy/psac-drilling-forecast-adjusted-lower-to-7650-wells-in-2015

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CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas

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-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

Jan

-15

US

To

tal

Lo

uis

ian

aG

OM

Fe

de

ral

Wa

ters

Te

xa

s

US

M

ark

eta

ble

P

ro

du

ctio

n (B

cfp

d)

Page 11: CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas · March 2015 CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas Analyzing Rig In-Activity Paul Kralovic Despite the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price

Relevant • Independent • Objective

Page 11

SOU

RC

E: S

tati

stics

Can

ada,

NEB

. SO

UR

CE:

Sta

tisti

cs C

anad

a, N

EB.

SOU

RC

E: S

tati

stics

Can

ada,

NEB

. SO

UR

CE:

Sta

tisti

cs C

anad

a, N

EB.

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

20

13

20

14

20

15

BC

, Y

uk

on

, N

WT

M

ark

eta

ble

Pro

du

ctio

n (B

cfp

d)

02468

10

12

14

16

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

20

13

20

14

20

15

Alb

erta

M

ark

eta

ble

P

ro

du

ctio

n (B

cfp

d)

0.0

0.5

1.0

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

20

13

20

14

20

15

Sa

sk

atc

he

wan M

arke

ta

ble

Pro

du

ctio

n (B

cfp

d)

0.0

0

0.2

5

0.5

0

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

20

13

20

14

20

15

Ea

st C

oa

st M

ark

eta

ble

P

ro

du

ctio

n (B

cfp

d)

Page 12: CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas · March 2015 CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas Analyzing Rig In-Activity Paul Kralovic Despite the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price

CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas

Page 12

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI.

SO

UR

CE:

CER

I.

SOU

RC

E: N

EB.

SOU

RC

E: N

EB.

02468

10

12

14

16

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

20

13

20

14

20

15

Syste

m F

ie

ld

R

ec

eip

ts

Tra

nsC

an

ad

a +

W

estc

oa

st; M

on

th

ly A

ve

ra

ge

(B

cfp

d)

02468

10

12

14

16

Mar-

14

May-1

4Ju

l-14

Sep

-14

No

v-1

4Jan

-15

Mar-

15

Em

pre

ss

Mc

Ne

ill

AB

-BC

All

ian

ce

Alb

erta

S

yste

m D

elive

rie

s (B

cfp

d)

0123456789

10

Feb

-14

Ap

r-14

Ju

n-1

4A

ug

-14

Oct-

14

Dec-1

4F

eb

-15

Kin

gs

ga

teM

on

ch

yE

lmo

reH

un

tin

gd

on

Ca

na

dia

n G

as E

xp

orts to

th

e U

S

By E

xp

ort P

oin

t -W

est (B

cfp

d)

0123456

Feb

-14

Ap

r-14

Ju

n-1

4A

ug

-14

Oct-

14

Dec-1

4F

eb

-15

Em

ers

on

Iro

qu

ois

Oth

ers

Nia

ga

ra

Ca

na

dia

n G

as E

xp

orts to

th

e U

S

By E

xp

ort P

oin

t -E

ast (B

cfp

d)

Page 13: CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas · March 2015 CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas Analyzing Rig In-Activity Paul Kralovic Despite the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price

Relevant • Independent • Objective

Page 13

SOU

RC

E: N

EB.

SOU

RC

E: N

EB.

SOU

RC

E: N

EB, E

IA.

SOU

RC

E: N

EB.

02468

10

12

Feb

-14

Ap

r-14

Ju

n-1

4A

ug

-14

Oct-

14

Dec-1

4F

eb

-15

We

st

Mid

We

st

Ea

st

US

Im

po

rts o

f C

an

ad

ia

n G

as

By U

S R

eg

io

n (B

cfp

d)

02468

10

12

14

16

18

Feb

-14

Ap

r-14

Ju

n-1

4A

ug

-14

Oct-

14

Dec-1

4F

eb

-15

We

st

Mid

We

st

Ea

st

Ave

ra

ge

C

an

ad

ia

n E

xp

ort P

ric

e

By U

S R

eg

io

n (C

$/G

J)

01234

Feb

-14

Ap

r-14

Ju

n-1

4A

ug

-14

Oct-

14

Dec-1

4F

eb

-15

Co

urt

rig

ht

Sa

rnia

St.

Cla

irO

the

r

Ca

na

dia

n G

as Im

po

rts

By Im

po

rt P

oin

t (B

cfp

d)

02468

10

12

14 Ja

n-1

4M

ar-

14

Ma

y-1

4J

ul-

14

Sep

-14

No

v-1

4J

an

-15

Ca

na

da

Me

xic

o

To

ta

l U

S P

ip

elin

e G

as Im

po

rts (B

cfp

d)

Page 14: CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas · March 2015 CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas Analyzing Rig In-Activity Paul Kralovic Despite the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price

CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas

Page 14

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

Pla

tts

Gas

Dai

ly.

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

Pla

tts

Gas

Dai

ly.

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

Pla

tts

Gas

Dai

ly.

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

Pla

tts

Gas

Dai

ly.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,0

00

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Y

ea

r A

vg

.2

01

42

01

5

Ca

na

dia

n W

ork

ing

G

as S

to

ra

ge

(B

cf, M

on

th

-e

nd

)

0

500

1,0

00

1,5

00

2,0

00

2,5

00

3,0

00

3,5

00

4,0

00

4,5

00

Ma

r-1

4M

ay

-14

Ju

l-1

4S

ep

-14

No

v-1

4J

an

-15

Ma

r-1

5

Ea

st

We

st

Pro

du

cin

g R

eg

ion

US

S

torage by R

egion (B

cf, M

onth

-end)

0

500

1,0

00

1,5

00

2,0

00

2,5

00

3,0

00

3,5

00

4,0

00

4,5

00

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Y

ea

r A

vg

.2

01

42

01

5

US

L

ow

er-4

8 W

ork

in

g G

as S

to

ra

ge

(B

cf, M

on

th

-e

nd

)

0

10

0

200

300

400

500

600

700

80

0

900

Ma

r-1

4M

ay

-14

Ju

l-1

4S

ep

-14

No

v-1

4J

an

-15

Ma

r-1

5

We

st

Ea

st

Canadian S

torage by R

egion (B

cf, M

onth-end)

Page 15: CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas · March 2015 CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas Analyzing Rig In-Activity Paul Kralovic Despite the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price

Relevant • Independent • Objective

Page 15

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

Pla

tts

Gas

Dai

ly.

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

Pla

tts

Gas

Dai

ly.

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

Pla

tts

Gas

Dai

ly.

-140

-100

-60

-20

20

60

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

WC

_IJ

_W

D

5-Y

ea

r A

vg

.2

01

42

01

5

We

ste

rn

C

an

ad

a S

to

ra

ge

In

je

ctio

ns/W

ith

dra

wals

(B

cf, M

on

th

-e

nd

)

-250

-200

-150

-100

-500

50

100

150

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Y

ea

r A

vg

.2

01

42

01

5

Canadian S

torage

Injections/W

ithdraw

als (B

cf, M

onth

-end)

-100

-80

-60

-40

-200

20

40

60

80

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Y

ea

r A

vg

.2

01

42

01

5

Eastern C

anadian S

torage Injections/W

ithdraw

als

(B

cf, M

onth-end)

Page 16: CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas · March 2015 CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas Analyzing Rig In-Activity Paul Kralovic Despite the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price

CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas

Page 16

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

Pla

tts

Gas

Dai

ly.

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

Pla

tts

Gas

Dai

ly.

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

Pla

tts

Gas

Dai

ly.

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

Pla

tts

Gas

Dai

ly.

-150

-100

-500

50

100

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Y

ea

r A

vg

.2

01

42

01

5

US

W

estern C

onsum

ing R

egion S

torage

Injections/W

ithdraw

als (B

cf, M

onth-end)

-400

-300

-200

-1000

100

200

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Y

ea

r A

vg

.2

01

42

01

5

US

P

roducing R

egion S

torage Injections/W

ithdraw

als

(B

cf, M

onth-end)

-12

00

-10

00

-800

-600

-400

-2000

200

400

600

800

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Y

ea

r A

vg

.2

01

42

01

5

US

S

torage

Injections/W

ithdraw

als (B

cf, M

onth-end)

-700

-500

-300

-100

100

300

500

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Y

ea

r A

vg

.2

01

42

01

5

US

E

astern S

torage

Injections/W

ithdraw

als (B

cf, M

onth-end)

Page 17: CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas · March 2015 CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas Analyzing Rig In-Activity Paul Kralovic Despite the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price

Relevant • Independent • Objective

Page 17

SOU

RC

E: U

S D

OE.

SO

UR

CE:

US

DO

E.

SOU

RC

E: U

S D

OE.

SO

UR

CE:

US

DO

E.

02468

Feb

-13

May-1

3A

ug

-13

No

v-1

3F

eb

-14

May-1

4A

ug

-14

No

v-1

4F

eb

-15

Fre

ep

ort

La

ke

Ch

arl

es

Sa

bin

e P

as

sC

am

ero

nG

old

en

Pa

ss

Gu

lf L

NG

US

G

oM

L

NG

Im

po

rts B

y F

ac

ility (B

cf)

05

10

15

20

Feb

-13

May-1

3A

ug

-13

No

v-1

3F

eb

-14

May-1

4A

ug

-14

No

v-1

4F

eb

-15

Oth

er

Nig

eri

aT

rin

ida

dN

orw

ay

Qa

tar

Ye

me

n

US

L

NG

Im

po

rts B

y O

rig

in

(B

cf)

02468

10

12

14

16

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3N

ov-1

3F

eb

-14

Ma

y-1

4A

ug

-14

No

v-1

4F

eb

-15

Co

ve

Po

int

Elb

a I

sla

nd

Ev

ere

ttN

E G

ate

wa

yN

ep

tun

e

Ea

ste

rn

U

S L

NG

Im

po

rts B

y F

ac

ility (B

cf)

02468

10

12

14

16

18

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

20

13

20

14

20

15

Volum

e-W

eighted A

verage LN

G P

rice (U

S$/M

MB

tu)

Page 18: CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas · March 2015 CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas Analyzing Rig In-Activity Paul Kralovic Despite the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price

CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas

Page 18

SOU

RC

E: U

S D

OE,

NEB

. SO

UR

CE:

US

DO

E.

SOU

RC

E: E

IA, U

S D

OE.

SO

UR

CE:

US

DO

E.

0123456 Feb

-13

May-1

3A

ug

-13

No

v-1

3F

eb

-14

May-1

4A

ug

-14

No

v-1

4F

eb

-15

Japan

US

L

NG

E

xp

orts to

J

ap

an

(B

cf)

01234567 Feb

-13

May-1

3A

ug

-13

No

v-1

3F

eb

-14

May-1

4A

ug

-14

No

v-1

4F

eb

-15

Me

xic

oB

razil

Ja

pa

n

US

L

NG

R

e-E

xp

orts

By D

estina

tion

(B

cf)

Page 19: CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas · March 2015 CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas Analyzing Rig In-Activity Paul Kralovic Despite the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price

Relevant • Independent • Objective

Page 19

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

CA

OD

C, B

aker

Hu

ghes

. SO

UR

CE:

CER

I, C

AO

DC

.

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

CA

OD

C.

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

CA

OD

C.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,0

00 Ja

n-0

6J

an

-07

Ja

n-0

8J

an

-09

Ja

n-1

0J

an

-11

Ja

n-1

2J

an

-13

Jan

-14

Ja

n-1

5

Ac

tiv

e R

igs

To

tal

Rig

Dri

llin

g F

lee

t

Ca

na

dia

n R

ig

F

le

et U

tiliza

tio

n

We

ek

ly A

ve

ra

ge

Ac

tive

Rig

s

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

70

0 Jan

-09

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

Jan

-15

SK

AB

BC

WC

SB

A

ctive

R

ig

s b

y P

ro

vin

ce

We

ek

ly A

ve

ra

ge

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

15

913

17

21

25

29

33

37

41

45

49

5-Y

ea

r A

vg

.2

01

42

01

5

We

ste

rn

C

an

ad

a A

ctive

R

ig

s

We

ek

ly A

ve

ra

ge

Week N

um

ber

0

50

0

1,0

00

1,5

00

2,0

00

2,5

00

3,0

00 Jan

-06

Jan

-07

Jan

-08

Jan

-09

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

Jan

-15

US

WC

SB

No

rth A

me

ric

an A

ctive

R

ig

s

Page 20: CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas · March 2015 CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas Analyzing Rig In-Activity Paul Kralovic Despite the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price

CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas

Page 20

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

Bak

er H

ugh

es.

SO

UR

CE:

CER

I, B

aker

Hu

ghe

s.

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

Bak

er H

ugh

es.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40

%

50%

60%

70%

80

%

90%

100%

0

200

400

600

800

1,0

00

1,2

00

1,4

00

1,6

00

1,8

00

2,0

00

2,2

00

2,4

00 Jan

-06

Jan

-07

Jan

-08

Jan

-09

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

Jan

-15

Oil

-dir

ec

ted

Ga

s-d

ire

cte

dG

as

-dir

ec

ted

%

US

T

ota

l A

ctive

R

ig

s

0

50

0

1,0

00

1,5

00

2,0

00

2,5

00 Jan

-06

Ja

n-0

7J

an

-08

Jan

-09

Ja

n-1

0J

an

-11

Ja

n-1

2J

an

-13

Ja

n-1

4J

an

-15

To

tal

Oil

-dir

ec

ted

Go

M G

as

-dir

ec

ted

On

sh

ore

Ga

s-d

ire

cte

d

US

T

ota

l A

ctive

R

ig

s

0

20

40

60

80

100

120 J

an

-06

Jan

-07

Jan

-08

Jan

-09

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

Jan

-15

Oil

-dir

ec

ted

Ga

s-d

ire

cte

d

US

G

ulf o

f M

ex

ic

o A

ctive

R

ig

s