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September 2012
CERI Commodity Report — Crude Oil
Relevant • Independent • Objective
CERI Commodity Report – Crude Oil Editor-in-Chief: Dinara Millington ([email protected]) About CERI The Canadian Energy Research Institute is an independent, not-for-profit research establishment created through a partnership of industry, academia, and government in 1975. Our mission is to provide relevant, independent, objective economic research in energy and related environmental issues. We strive to build bridges between scholarship and policy, combining the insights of scientific research, economic analysis, and practical experience. In doing so, we broaden the knowledge of young researchers in areas related to energy, the economy, and the environment while honing their expertise in a range of analytical techniques. For more information about CERI, please visit our website at www.ceri.ca.
The most obvious reason is that the market had anticipated the loss of Iranian production, and hence had already priced in some of that loss. In December of last year the Israeli government convinced the EU that it had to impose hard sanctions in light of alternative, which had the Israeli Defense Forces launch an attack to stop Iran's alleged nuclear programme. The six-month lead-in time for the EU embargo also gave buyers of Iranian oil half a year to find alternative suppliers. The second reason is that no one knows, yet, how much Iranian oil is reaching the market. In June, Iran told OPEC that its production in May had risen to 3.7 MMbpd. A secondary source, such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that the figure was closer to 3.3 MMbpd (see Figure 1). In July, the IEA calculated that production had fallen again to 2.9 MMbpd. Iranian officials did not report their production levels. As well, tracking Iranian tankers, which would give a better picture, is now difficult. Their transponders have been shut off. Figure 1: Iranian Production (MMbpd)
Source: IEA, Oil Market Report Another reason has to do with new supplies of oil coming on-stream and replacing lost Iranian production. Non-OPEC supply is forecast to increase by 0.6 MMbpd (to 53.6 MMbpd) in 4Q12, from maintenance and hurricane disruptions in 3Q12, which will be 0.9 MMbpd higher than it averaged in 2011. On an annual basis, the IEA expects non-OPEC production to increase by 0.4 MMbpd
Why Haven’t Sanctions Against Iran Affected Oil Prices? When Libya's civil unrest shut in the country's oil production last year, Brent crude prices rose about 25 percent from the start of the revolution in February to highs above US$125 a barrel in May 2011. The reason for the price surge was obvious. Fighting had knocked out 1.4 million barrels a day (MMbpd) of Libyan oil almost immediately. The quality end of the crude complex, particularly relevant for Europe's high-spec refineries, was caught short. Libya's light, sweet, paraffin-rich oil was hard to replace. The strict European Union (EU) embargo and another round of sanctions imposed by the US Congress have restricted Iran's oil trade, even though global demand for crude is higher this year than when Libya's output was shut in. Similar volume that was lost last year from Libya could be removed from the market. Far greater volumes would be lost, too, if Iran did what some of its politicians say it will, and shut down the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world's oil passes. However, oil prices have fallen from a peak of US$125/bbl in April to around US$100/bbl in mid-July 2012. Even a late summer increase in the price, which has seen Brent gain more than US$10/bbl, was largely due to macroeconomic reasons: a Eurozone deal in June and expectations for more stimulus cash in the US. In short, the Iran factor has barely moved the price, let alone spiked it. Why? This article will attempt to shed some light.
CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil
Page 2
by the end of 2012 and 0.7 MMbpd in 2013. The new sources of oil are expected from various regions, such as the US Bakken, Kashagan in Kazakhstan, Alberta’s oil sands and the pre-salt basins of Brazil. The future expectations of increased oil supply from non-OPEC regions give the global oil market some comfort. But, the main reason for the lack of increase in oil price is explained by loosening supplies within OPEC. The 30 MMbpd production ceiling the group set last year has become immaterial. The latest statistics indicate that OPEC’s output is around 31.2 MMbpd. Libyan production has reached pre-war levels and Iraq has overtaken Iran as OPEC's second-largest producer. Iraq has added 0.4 MMbpd to supply since September of last year, totaling its output to just over 3.0 MMbpd. Those additions, though significant, pale in comparison to the efforts of Saudi Arabia, which focused on replenishing and building global inventories thus preventing any price rises beyond a rough band of a few dollars either side of US$100/bbl (i.e., Brent price equivalent). Production has been steady, around 9.5-9.7 MMbpd for most of this year. This is not really an effort to capitalize on Iran's misfortunes, say Saudi sources. It comes from King Abdullah's wish to see the market balanced, and prices within a range that will not deteriorate global oil demand and keep the Kingdom's customer base. Nevertheless, the impact is the same. Saudi increased production raises global inventories, which in turn means that the world can cope with the loss of Iranian oil. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports that crude stocks rose by 1 MMbpd in May and June. That compares with a 1.2 MMbpd draw on stocks in the same period last year, during Libya's war. This situation leaves Iran isolated. Reduced oil exports will drain the Iranian economy, which heavily depends on petro-dollars, and at the same time it seems that there is no lasting damage on the economies of import-dependent countries that are imposing the sanctions. How will Iran respond? One of the options that Iran had mentioned was to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a
threat that is usually guaranteed a jump in oil prices, but has had a muted impact this year. The UAE and Saudi Arabia have already opened new oil export pipelines, totalling 6.5 MMbpd of capacity, or about 40 percent of the volume that sails through the Strait. That weakens the Hormuz threat. In any event, shutting down the Strait under the watchful gaze of the US military would take some effort and most likely be short-lived. Another response may include proxy retaliation elsewhere in the Middle East. Iran's influence in Iraq, say some analysts, could be used to destabilize its fragile politics and slow its oil-production growth. Saudi Arabia's strategy to keep the market balanced, though, is not about to change. As sanctions continue, it is inevitable Iran's oil output will fall steeply. Country officials have already confirmed that sanctions have forced the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) to shut-in production, with estimates ranging from 0.2 MMbpd to as much as 0.5MMbpd in September 2012. However, other group members will pick up Iran’s market share and new production outside the group may loosen supplies even further. In short, Iran's options are shrinking along with its economy. If the situation persists where sanctions against Iran are not lifted, the IEA’s forecast is predicting a 1.2 MMbpd shortfall in Iranian production to 2.5 MMbpd by 2017. Crude oil exports are expected to hover in a narrow range around 1 MMbpd in 4Q12 compared with around 2.5 MMbpd over the same period a year ago. One thing for sure, prolonged sanctions will be the new norm in the country. And a weakened Iran may be dangerous. But a negotiated settlement to the nuclear issue looks increasingly attractive. References: International Energy Agency, Oil Market Report. October 2012 ________, Medium-Term Oil Market Report. October 2012 Energy Information Administration, Weekly Petroleum Status Report, September 2012
Relevant • Independent • Objective
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CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil
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Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 5
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CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil
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Relevant • Independent • Objective
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World Supply and Demand Balance (MMbpd)
OPEC Crude Oil Production (MMbpd)
WTI Price Projections ($US/barrel)
2009 2010 2011 2012 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12
World Demand 85.4 88.1 89.0 89.8 86.9 87.6 89.1 89.8 88.7 87.7 89.5 89.8 89.2 89.0 90.1 90.4
OECD 46.3 46.9 46.6 46.2 46.0 45.4 46.7 46.8 47.1 45.4 47.0 46.8 46.3 45.6 46.6 46.5
non-OECD 39.1 41.1 42.4 43.5 40.9 42.2 42.4 43.0 41.6 42.3 42.6 43.0 42.8 43.4 43.8 43.9
World Supply 85.4 87.3 88.4 90.7 86.6 86.7 87.5 88.1 88.5 87.5 88.4 89.4 90.8 90.7 90.8 91.2
Non-OPEC 51.4 52.6 52.8 53.2 52.2 52.5 52.6 53.2 52.8 52.4 52.7 53.2 53.4 52.9 53.0 53.6
OPEC NGLs 4.9 5.4 5.8 6.2 5.2 5.2 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.4
OPEC Crude 26.7 26.8 27.2 28.5 29.2 29.0 29.4 29.3 29.9 29.4 29.9 30.3 31.4 31.7 31.5 31.2
Supply - Demand1 0.0 -0.8 -0.5 0.9 -0.4 -0.8 -1.7 -1.7 -0.3 -0.1 -1.1 -0.4 1.6 1.7 0.7 0.2
OECD
Stocks (MMbbls) 2664 2682 2762 2742 2664 2631 2676 2665 2601 2659 2702 2737
Days Cover 58 59 59 59 57 58 57 57 56 58 58 59
Sustainable
Capacity Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12
Saudi Arabia 10.85 10.00 9.90 9.80 1.95 1.85 1.75
Iran 4.00 2.90 2.85 2.63 -0.44 -0.49 -0.71
UAE 2.85 2.68 2.69 2.69 0.46 0.47 0.47
Kuwait 2.65 2.76 2.76 2.78 0.54 0.54 0.56
Qatar 0.90 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.02 0.02 0.02
Nigeria 2.60 2.16 2.30 2.06 0.49 0.63 0.39
Libya 1.75 1.45 1.38 1.44 -0.02 -0.09 -0.03
Algeria 1.43 1.19 1.18 1.17 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03
Ecuador 0.49 0.48 0.50 0.50 0.05 0.07 0.07
OPEC-11 32.12 28.55 28.61 28.05 1.24 1.30 0.74
Iraq1 2.50 3.02 3.07 3.12
Total OPEC 34.62 31.57 31.68 31.17
Production Over (+)/Under (-) Target
2010 2011 2012 2013 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13
High Price Case 97.90 99.28 97.90 97.90 99.00 100.10 100.10
Reference Case 79.48 95.04 94.36 90.25 89.51 93.99 102.99 93.30 92.16 89.00 89.00 90.00 91.00 91.00
Low Price Case 75.65 76.71 75.65 75.65 76.50 77.35 77.35
CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil
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Data Appendix
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 9
A1: Historic Light Sweet Crude Futures Prices ($US per barrel)
A2: Historic Crude Product Futures Prices (¢US per gallon)
Notes (Tables A1 and A2): Prices are listed by contract month. Close: final contract close on the last day of trading. Last 3 Day Average Close: simple average con-
tract close on last three days of trading. Average When Near Month: simple average closing price on trading days when contract was near month. 12-Month Strip
Average: simple average of daily near 12-month contract closing prices in a given contract month. Spread: difference between one-month and two-month forward
prices in a given period. Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).
NYMEX Light Sweet Crude
Last 3 Day Avg. When 12-Month Spread
Close Average Near Mo. Strip Avg. (1-2 Mo.)
2009 58.61 58.58 55.69 63.97 -1.78
2010 77.20 77.37 78.28 81.19 -0.91
2011 94.11 93.62 94.15 96.21 -0.69
3Q 2011 91.01 91.57 94.86 96.36 -0.45
4Q 2011 90.07 90.29 88.55 89.59 -0.14
1Q 2012 100.51 99.50 99.42 100.76 -0.23
2Q 2012 99.85 100.62 103.27 104.98 -0.45
3Q 2012 89.97 90.19 87.38 88.91 -0.31
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -1.1% -1.5% -7.9% -7.7%
Oct-11 86.89 86.85 87.36 88.74 -0.23
Nov-11 85.30 86.58 83.00 84.21 -0.24
Dec-11 98.01 97.45 95.29 95.84 0.04
Jan-12 97.22 94.88 98.12 99.19 -0.16
Feb-12 98.46 99.81 100.45 101.62 -0.16
Mar-12 105.84 103.80 99.70 101.48 -0.37
Apr-12 105.61 106.92 106.88 108.69 -0.48
May-12 102.27 103.05 103.99 105.84 -0.50
Jun-12 91.66 91.90 98.93 100.40 -0.38
Jul-12 81.80 83.03 85.38 86.80 -0.27
Aug-12 91.44 91.32 84.90 86.56 -0.38
Sep-12 96.68 96.22 91.85 93.36 -0.28
Oct-12 91.87 93.05 95.93 97.50 -0.33
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 5.7% 7.1% 9.8% 9.9%
NYMEX Unleaded Gasoline NYMEX Heating Oil
Last 3 Day Avg. When 12-Month Spread Last 3 Day Avg. When 12-Month Spread
Close Average Near Mo. Strip Avg. (1-2 Mo.) Close Average Near Mo. Strip Avg. (1-2 Mo.)
2009 165.0 164.0 160.6 166.3 -0.6 162.6 161.4 161.8 175.0 -2.3
2010 210.3 209.5 208.8 203.7 -0.4 210.7 210.2 210.3 220.1 -1.8
2011 286.8 284.4 280.2 268.9 2.1 296.5 294.6 292.1 298.6 -0.9
3Q 2011 305.9 302.7 297.3 273.5 7.7 303.6 301.3 300.2 309.1 -1.2
4Q 2011 261.2 262.1 266.3 255.3 2.9 295.3 296.0 298.5 303.5 -0.4
1Q 2012 287.0 287.8 280.2 283.9 -5.6 305.6 306.8 304.7 307.9 -4.9
2Q 2012 313.3 315.0 318.2 299.9 4.5 301.9 303.9 310.1 317.2 -0.6
3Q 2012 291.6 288.8 283.4 249.6 12.7 290.3 287.4 282.7 289.5 -0.4
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -4.7% -4.6% -4.7% -8.7% -4.4% -4.6% -5.8% -6.3%
Oct-11 262.6 263.2 272.5 259.1 4.0 279.5 281.0 293.4 300.6 -0.8
Nov-11 264.3 268.9 268.1 254.1 4.5 304.3 306.7 295.9 299.2 0.2
Dec-11 256.8 254.2 258.3 252.6 0.3 302.1 300.4 306.3 310.6 -0.4
Jan-12 268.0 267.0 259.8 263.8 -0.4 291.8 291.0 290.2 295.6 -0.9
Feb-12 288.7 289.5 279.6 282.8 -0.6 306.3 306.2 304.6 306.6 0.7
Mar-12 304.2 307.0 301.0 305.1 -15.8 318.8 323.3 319.4 321.4 -14.6
Apr-12 339.0 339.6 334.3 319.8 1.4 316.8 317.8 322.7 330.4 -1.0
May-12 318.4 319.1 325.4 304.6 6.0 318.3 318.6 315.6 322.4 -0.5
Jun-12 282.5 286.3 295.0 275.3 6.1 270.6 275.2 291.9 298.8 -0.4
Jul-12 272.7 265.4 265.1 233.0 8.5 269.6 261.4 261.4 268.4 -0.2
Aug-12 291.5 291.3 282.1 246.0 11.0 284.2 287.0 281.4 287.7 -0.1
Sep-12 310.6 309.6 303.0 269.8 18.5 317.0 313.7 305.4 312.5 -0.8
Oct-12 334.2 318.9 299.6 271.1 13.6 316.9 314.4 314.6 318.7 0.2
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 27.3% 21.2% 9.9% 4.6% 13.4% 11.9% 7.2% 6.0%
CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil
Page 10
A3: World Crude Oil Contract Prices (FOB, $US per barrel)
A4: North American Posted Crude Prices (FOB, $US per barrel)
Notes: 1. ANS is Delivered price on US West Coast. 2. Edmonton Light Sweet. 3. Hardisty Heavy. Posted prices are based on price at the end of each month. Sources:
Oil & Gas Journal; Natural Resources Canada.
Notes: 1. Urals is Delivered price at Mediterranean. Contract prices are based on prices at the end of each month. Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.
Saudi U.A.E. Oman U.K. Norway Russia Venez. Kuwait Ecuador Mexico Nigeria Indon.
Arab Lgt Dubai Oman Brent Ekofisk Urals1 T.J. Light Blend Oriente Isthmus Bonny Lgt Minas
2009 72.41 73.86 74.05 73.63 74.44 72.58 72.99 73.22 67.42 72.88 75.44 77.94
2010 78.28 78.54 78.77 80.17 80.78 78.12 77.86 76.95 72.56 77.75 81.53 83.05
2011 107.94 106.21 106.63 111.11 112.67 108.85 105.01 105.65 100.89 105.40 113.53 114.59
2Q 2011 111.94 110.17 110.55 116.61 118.46 113.52 110.71 109.38 104.11 110.60 118.73 120.46
3Q 2011 108.05 106.23 106.57 112.37 113.94 110.24 103.33 105.40 101.28 103.21 113.74 116.02
4Q 2011 108.32 106.50 107.18 109.32 110.73 108.65 107.11 106.87 103.48 109.00 112.67 114.07
1Q 2012 118.09 116.17 116.99 118.49 119.92 116.94 112.94 117.04 111.60 114.97 121.14 126.86
2Q 2012 107.31 106.48 106.56 108.39 109.26 106.90 103.57 106.13 101.78 105.47 110.81 118.40
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -4.1% -3.3% -3.6% -7.0% -7.8% -5.8% -6.4% -3.0% -2.2% -4.6% -6.7% -1.7%
Jun-11 107.36 106.35 106.39 111.97 113.97 109.40 104.70 105.37 95.27 104.59 113.98 115.05
Jul-11 115.46 111.98 112.22 118.27 120.26 116.91 111.06 111.25 106.63 110.94 120.01 124.25
Aug-11 105.61 103.88 104.24 110.58 112.19 109.20 99.50 103.46 97.09 99.39 112.32 115.32
Sep-11 103.09 102.82 103.26 108.27 109.36 104.62 99.42 101.49 100.12 99.31 108.89 108.49
Oct-11 106.40 104.13 104.96 109.44 111.42 108.10 103.40 104.09 103.69 105.18 113.09 110.01
Nov-11 110.59 108.94 109.30 110.66 111.76 110.54 109.64 109.46 105.75 111.54 114.21 117.85
Dec-11 107.96 106.43 107.28 107.86 109.01 107.31 108.28 107.06 100.99 110.27 110.71 114.35
Jan-12 112.82 109.86 110.91 110.58 112.25 109.91 108.04 112.00 104.11 110.02 113.08 120.41
Feb-12 118.01 116.17 117.15 119.56 121.02 118.50 112.36 116.79 112.44 114.42 122.36 126.31
Mar-12 123.43 122.47 122.92 125.33 126.48 122.41 118.41 122.32 118.26 120.46 127.98 133.85
Apr-12 118.94 117.30 117.44 119.71 120.59 117.69 114.07 117.53 113.86 116.04 122.36 130.15
May-12 108.48 107.71 107.76 110.27 111.24 109.21 105.16 107.55 102.25 107.20 112.87 120.21
Jun-12 94.51 94.44 94.49 95.19 95.96 93.81 91.48 93.32 89.22 93.16 97.19 104.83
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -12.0% -11.2% -11.2% -15.0% -15.8% -14.3% -12.6% -11.4% -6.4% -10.9% -14.7% -8.9%
United States Canada Light vs. Heavy
ANS1 Lost Hills Kern R. WTI WTS GCS Okla. Sw. Kans. Sw. Mich. So. Wyo. Sw. ELS2 HH3
2009 60.21 71.86 64.48 69.37 64.02 62.37 69.37 68.31 61.37 63.40 75.00 70.21
2010 72.17 79.71 72.52 76.52 71.52 69.52 76.52 75.42 68.52 71.18 77.52 71.20
2011 102.36 112.50 103.21 92.00 87.38 85.42 92.42 91.69 84.42 87.64 95.04 83.74
3Q 2011 108.32 111.47 101.17 83.67 78.50 76.67 83.67 82.67 75.67 79.03 91.81 79.18
4Q 2011 106.40 115.77 106.80 92.75 87.75 85.75 92.75 92.92 84.75 89.61 97.26 89.45
1Q 2012 105.15 119.62 110.80 100.58 95.58 93.58 100.58 98.92 92.58 96.78 92.27 85.60
2Q 2012 114.98 106.23 99.33 88.33 83.33 81.33 88.33 87.33 80.33 81.85 83.98 75.71
3Q 2012 97.54 108.23 100.22 89.50 84.50 82.50 89.50 88.42 81.50 83.43 84.33 75.59
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -10.0% -2.9% -0.9% 7.0% 7.6% 7.6% 7.0% 7.0% 7.7% 5.6% -8.1% -4.5%
Sep-11 108.30 109.70 100.65 75.75 70.25 68.75 75.75 74.75 67.75 71.95 92.07 79.42
Oct-11 101.44 122.60 112.60 89.75 84.75 82.75 89.75 88.75 81.75 86.07 92.90 81.86
Nov-11 108.88 116.75 107.00 93.25 88.25 86.25 93.25 95.75 85.25 89.67 101.09 93.36
Dec-11 108.88 107.95 100.80 95.25 90.25 88.25 95.25 94.25 87.25 93.08 97.79 93.14
Jan-12 109.20 111.75 102.80 96.00 91.00 89.00 96.00 95.00 88.00 93.81 96.69 92.13
Feb-12 101.59 126.80 118.20 106.25 101.25 99.25 106.25 105.25 98.25 103.52 94.41 87.50
Mar-12 104.66 120.30 111.40 99.50 94.50 92.50 99.50 96.50 91.50 93.02 85.71 77.16
Apr-12 113.64 118.65 112.75 101.50 96.50 94.50 101.50 100.50 93.50 94.43 83.98 74.04
May-12 116.90 105.60 98.55 87.25 82.25 80.25 87.25 86.25 79.25 81.11 87.28 79.08
Jun-12 114.39 94.45 86.70 76.25 71.25 69.25 76.25 75.25 68.25 70.01 80.66 74.01
Jul-12 104.57 103.85 96.75 86.75 81.75 79.75 86.75 85.50 78.75 80.38 75.90 70.04
Aug-12 91.21 111.80 103.55 93.00 88.00 86.00 93.00 92.00 85.00 86.72 86.51 74.24
Sep-12 96.84 109.05 100.35 88.75 83.75 81.75 88.75 87.75 80.75 83.19 90.58 82.50
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -10.6% -0.6% -0.3% 17.2% 19.2% 18.9% 17.2% 17.4% 19.2% 15.6% -1.6% 3.9%
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 11
A5: Crude Oil Quality Differentials (FOB, $US per barrel)
A6: Crude Oil Spot Prices and Differentials (FOB, $US per barrel)
Notes: 1. OPEC-Reference Basket is average price of seven crude streams: Algeria Saharan Blend, Dubai Fateh, Indonesia Minas, Mexico Isthmus, Nigeria Bonny
Light, Saudi Arabia Light and Venezuela Tia Juana Light. Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.
Notes: 1. Edmonton Light Sweet. 2. Hardisty Heavy. Based on contract prices at the end of each month. Sources: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report: Oil & Gas Jour-nal; Natural Resources Canada.
Light vs. Heavy Sweet vs. Sour
Arab Lt Arab Hv Diff. Isthmus Maya Diff. ELS1 HH2 Diff. GCS WTS Diff.
2009 72.41 70.79 1.62 72.88 67.26 5.61 70.03 65.55 4.47 62.37 64.02 -1.65
2010 78.28 75.91 2.37 77.75 70.09 7.66 75.26 69.13 6.14 69.52 71.52 -2.00
2011 107.94 103.95 3.99 105.40 98.77 6.63 96.69 85.19 11.50 85.42 87.38 -1.96
2Q 2011 111.94 106.69 5.25 110.60 102.48 8.12 106.52 92.73 13.79 91.42 93.42 -2.00
3Q 2011 108.05 103.89 4.17 103.21 99.06 4.15 95.90 82.71 13.19 76.67 78.50 -1.83
4Q 2011 108.32 105.89 2.42 109.00 103.31 5.69 95.04 87.41 7.63 85.75 87.75 -2.00
1Q 2012 118.09 116.59 1.49 114.97 108.80 6.17 92.14 85.47 6.66 93.58 95.58 -2.00
2Q 2012 107.31 105.39 1.92 105.47 99.46 6.01 83.13 74.95 8.18 81.33 83.33 -2.00
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -4.1% -1.2% -4.6% -2.9% -22.0% -19.2% -11.0% -10.8%
Jun-11 107.36 101.91 5.45 104.59 98.26 6.33 99.92 87.19 12.73 80.75 82.75 -2.00
Jul-11 115.46 111.11 4.35 110.94 104.05 6.89 99.57 87.50 12.08 85.25 87.25 -2.00
Aug-11 105.61 101.46 4.15 99.39 95.89 3.50 95.92 81.03 14.89 76.00 78.00 -2.00
Sep-11 103.09 99.09 4.00 99.31 97.25 2.06 92.03 79.39 12.64 68.75 70.25 -1.50
Oct-11 106.40 102.40 4.00 105.18 99.59 5.59 91.02 80.21 10.81 82.75 84.75 -2.00
Nov-11 110.59 108.67 1.92 111.54 105.99 5.55 98.51 90.98 7.53 86.25 88.25 -2.00
Dec-11 107.96 106.61 1.35 110.27 104.34 5.93 95.56 91.01 4.55 88.25 90.25 -2.00
Jan-12 112.82 111.73 1.09 110.02 105.91 4.11 95.33 90.84 4.49 89.00 91.00 -2.00
Feb-12 118.01 116.21 1.80 114.42 108.59 5.83 94.71 87.78 6.93 99.25 101.25 -2.00
Mar-12 123.43 121.84 1.59 120.46 111.90 8.56 86.27 77.66 8.61 92.50 94.50 -2.00
Apr-12 118.94 116.62 2.32 116.04 108.63 7.41 84.63 74.62 10.02 94.50 96.50 -2.00
May-12 108.48 106.89 1.59 107.20 101.32 5.88 86.39 78.27 8.12 80.25 82.25 -2.00
Jun-12 94.51 92.67 1.84 93.16 88.42 4.74 78.44 71.97 6.47 69.25 71.25 -2.00
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -12.0% -9.1% -10.9% -10.0% -21.5% -17.5% -14.2% -13.9%
Spot Prices Differentials
WTI Brent Dubai Urals Basket1 WTI-Brent WTI-Dubai WTI-Urals WTI-Basket
2009 61.93 61.70 61.86 61.00 58.15 -3.09 -3.25 -2.39 0.46
2010 79.48 79.51 78.13 78.17 75.98 -2.31 -0.93 -0.97 1.22
2011 95.04 111.21 106.33 109.61 105.85 -17.10 -12.22 -15.50 -11.74
3Q 2011 89.51 113.33 107.07 112.58 108.86 -22.32 -16.06 -21.57 -17.85
4Q 2011 93.99 109.35 106.51 109.21 107.85 -19.28 -16.44 -19.14 -17.78
1Q 2012 102.99 118.55 116.49 117.50 111.68 -18.04 -15.98 -16.99 -11.17
2Q 2012 93.30 108.31 106.15 106.87 111.32 -8.46 -6.30 -7.02 -11.48
3Q 2012 92.16 109.52 106.12 109.33 0.00 -19.55 -16.15 -19.36 89.97
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 3.0% -3.4% -0.9% -2.9% -100.0%
Sep-11 85.55 113.12 106.30 110.38 107.61 -26.23 -19.41 -23.49 -20.72
Oct-11 86.43 109.41 104.04 108.68 107.61 -24.11 -18.74 -23.38 -22.31
Nov-11 97.14 110.69 108.84 110.93 106.29 -12.68 -10.83 -12.92 -8.28
Dec-11 98.56 107.80 106.53 107.89 109.72 -10.58 -9.31 -10.67 -12.50
Jan-12 100.28 110.52 109.91 109.68 107.34 -12.06 -11.45 -11.22 -8.88
Feb-12 102.22 119.53 116.11 119.32 110.50 -13.69 -10.27 -13.48 -4.66
Mar-12 106.15 125.28 122.53 123.24 116.96 -19.67 -16.92 -17.63 -11.35
Apr-12 103.29 119.57 117.28 117.46 121.60 -17.30 -15.01 -15.19 -19.33
May-12 94.68 110.25 107.32 109.50 118.39 -18.59 -15.66 -17.84 -26.73
Jun-12 82.35 94.80 94.33 93.25 93.98 -13.00 -12.53 -11.45 -12.18
Jul-12 87.90 102.56 99.19 102.83 99.55 -11.12 -7.75 -11.39 -8.11
Aug-12 94.12 113.36 108.62 113.57 109.52 -16.68 -11.94 -16.89 -12.84
Sep-12 94.51 112.95 111.13 111.81 110.67 -21.08 -19.26 -19.94 -18.80
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 10.5% -0.2% 4.5% 1.3% 2.8%
CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil
Page 12
A7: World Petroleum Product Spot Prices ($US per barrel)
A8: Product Spot Prices in Selected American Cities (¢US per gallon)
Notes: 1. Reformulated regular unleaded gasoline. Spot prices are based on average daily prices over a specific timeframe. Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status
Report.
Notes: 1. Regular unleaded gasoline. 2. High Sulfur (3.0%) Residual Fuel Oil. 3. High Sulfur (3.5%) Residual Fuel Oil. Spot prices are based on average daily prices over a specific timeframe. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.
NY Harbor, Barges Rotterdam, Barges Singapore, Cargoes
Gasoline1 No. 2 H.O. Resid.2 Gasoline1 Gasoil Resid.3 Gasoline1 Gasoil Resid.3
2009 69.52 55.92 55.23 70.06 69.38 52.93 70.37 70.43 58.12
2010 87.01 69.70 70.63 87.32 89.75 67.99 88.48 90.39 72.88
2011 116.66 95.72 96.84 116.42 125.02 94.51 119.81 126.25 100.65
3Q 2011 120.19 98.44 98.38 120.98 126.18 98.16 124.47 126.47 102.79
4Q 2011 108.70 98.28 98.57 110.67 127.09 96.93 116.13 125.72 104.26
1Q 2012 125.75 108.03 109.28 125.59 133.17 105.93 130.80 134.41 113.89
2Q 2012 121.35 97.87 114.72 122.98 124.41 96.95 120.18 123.82 103.24
3Q 2012 123.96 97.29 114.72 125.98 126.55 96.50 121.96 127.28 101.73
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 3.1% -1.2% 16.6% 4.1% 0.3% -1.7% -2.0% 0.6% -1.0%
Sep-11 116.67 122.63 98.20 120.72 123.86 98.48 124.36 122.71 102.56
Oct-11 116.62 123.95 98.09 113.48 124.68 97.16 121.96 121.32 102.82
Nov-11 106.95 100.29 100.97 109.85 131.07 98.61 112.80 120.19 106.61
Dec-11 106.58 95.38 96.76 108.90 124.43 94.84 113.90 115.42 103.27
Jan-12 116.29 102.88 102.63 115.85 127.81 102.93 124.01 125.07 111.69
Feb-12 125.73 109.26 109.94 125.47 134.30 105.98 130.86 126.76 113.75
Mar-12 134.38 111.58 114.72 134.99 137.21 108.74 136.60 138.06 115.93
Apr-12 134.43 108.55 114.72 136.35 134.62 106.00 135.06 135.04 113.53
May-12 120.41 98.56 114.72 121.81 125.51 97.89 121.61 124.95 104.45
Jun-12 109.88 86.97 114.72 110.96 112.94 86.80 104.50 111.95 92.18
Jul-12 115.47 91.58 114.72 117.06 119.09 90.83 113.35 119.27 96.09
Aug-12 128.59 99.54 114.72 128.12 128.98 98.95 127.34 130.61 103.99
Sep-12 127.73 100.88 114.72 133.45 132.06 100.03 125.78 132.61 105.56
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 9.5% -17.7% 16.8% 10.5% 6.6% 1.6% 1.1% 8.1% 2.9%
NY Harbor US Gulf Los Angeles
Gasoline1 No. 2 H.O. Distill. Gasoline1 Jet Fuel Distill. Gasoline1 Distill.
2009 196.58 189.77 193.59 192.64 192.32 191.28 206.52 195.21
2010 209.23 212.48 219.41 205.11 214.61 215.59 220.97 220.41
2011 279.50 294.63 301.44 274.58 299.61 296.95 289.49 304.88
3Q 2011 287.47 297.83 305.33 282.27 302.90 300.93 290.13 303.27
4Q 2011 267.83 296.60 301.33 259.07 296.17 296.13 279.60 306.37
1Q 2012 301.10 315.57 320.17 298.17 318.33 316.07 320.17 323.80
2Q 2012 289.50 289.40 297.97 279.90 295.93 294.37 303.67 297.10
3Q 2012 301.30 299.73 310.97 288.23 307.97 306.93 303.67 312.60
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 4.8% 0.6% 1.8% 2.1% 1.7% 2.0% 4.7% 3.1%
Sep-11 276.80 292.10 298.00 269.20 294.80 293.70 291.70 301.10
Oct-11 277.20 295.30 300.80 268.90 296.60 296.00 294.90 308.90
Nov-11 262.90 305.40 309.50 253.90 304.60 304.60 273.70 319.20
Dec-11 263.40 289.10 293.70 254.40 287.30 287.80 270.20 291.00
Jan-12 282.20 305.40 308.00 277.70 308.70 303.40 292.00 308.80
Feb-12 304.40 319.60 322.30 299.90 320.70 317.80 330.20 324.20
Mar-12 316.70 321.70 330.20 316.90 325.60 327.00 338.30 338.40
Apr-12 320.60 315.00 324.20 310.10 322.60 321.70 325.00 325.20
May-12 287.70 291.30 298.70 278.00 297.40 294.70 323.40 300.70
Jun-12 260.20 261.90 271.00 251.60 267.80 266.70 262.60 265.40
Jul-12 274.70 281.30 292.10 264.50 289.20 287.90 281.90 285.40
Aug-12 302.20 304.50 317.90 296.80 315.60 314.30 312.90 322.50
Sep-12 327.00 313.40 322.90 303.40 319.10 318.60 316.20 329.90
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 18.1% 7.3% 8.4% 12.7% 8.2% 8.5% 8.4% 9.6%
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 13
B1: World Petroleum Supply and Demand Balance (million barrels per day)
Notes: 1. Totals for OECD and non-OECD supply include net refining gains; specific regions/groupings within each do not. 2. OPEC demand is an estimate based on
historical annual data. 3. Balance for World equals global stockbuilds (+) and stockdraws (-) for crude oil and petroleum products and miscellaneous gains and loss-
es. Regional surpluses (+) and deficits (-) are balanced through net-imports and stock changes in the short-term, and net-imports in the longer term. Supply includes
crude oil, condensates, NGLs, oil from non-conventional sources and processing gains. Demand is for petroleum products.
Source: IEA Oil Market Report.
OECD Non-OECD OPEC World
N. A. Europe Asia-Pac Total1 Asia Non-Asia FSU Total1 P. Gulf Non-Gulf Total2 Total3
Demand
2007 25.5 15.4 8.4 49.3 16.1 10.8 4.2 31.1 4.2 2.5 6.7 87.1
2008 24.2 15.4 8.1 47.6 16.3 11.5 4.2 32.0 4.3 2.6 7.0 86.7
2009 23.7 14.7 8.0 46.3 17.0 10.8 4.0 31.8 4.5 2.7 7.3 85.4
2010 24.1 14.7 8.1 46.9 18.5 11.0 4.2 33.7 4.7 2.8 7.5 88.1
2011 24.1 14.4 8.1 46.6 18.9 11.1 4.4 34.4 4.9 2.9 7.9 88.9
3Q 2010 24.1 15.0 7.6 46.7 18.0 12.5 4.4 34.9 4.7 2.8 7.5 89.1
4Q 2010 23.8 14.9 8.1 46.8 19.1 11.9 4.4 35.4 4.7 2.8 7.5 89.8
1Q 2011 24.2 14.3 8.6 47.1 19.1 10.5 4.2 33.8 4.9 2.9 7.9 88.7
2Q 2011 23.8 14.2 7.4 45.4 19.1 11.1 4.4 34.6 4.9 2.9 7.9 87.7
3Q 2011 24.2 14.8 8.0 47.0 18.5 11.6 4.6 34.7 4.9 2.9 7.9 89.5
4Q 2011 24.0 14.2 8.6 46.8 19.3 11.2 4.6 35.1 4.9 2.9 7.9 89.8
1Q 2012 23.5 13.8 9.1 46.4 19.5 10.7 4.4 34.6 5.1 3.0 8.2 89.2
2Q 2012 23.8 13.8 8.0 45.6 19.3 11.4 4.5 35.2 5.1 3.0 8.2 89.0
3Q 2012 24.0 14.2 8.2 46.3 18.9 11.9 4.7 35.5 5.1 3.0 8.2 90.1
Supply
2007 13.8 5.0 0.6 20.7 7.4 8.1 12.8 29.1 23.7 10.7 34.9 85.8
2008 13.3 4.8 0.6 19.9 7.5 8.1 12.8 29.2 24.5 10.4 35.6 86.7
2009 13.6 4.5 0.6 20.0 7.4 8.3 13.3 29.8 23.0 10.5 34.1 85.4
2010 14.1 4.1 0.7 20.1 7.8 8.5 13.5 30.7 23.3 10.7 34.6 87.3
2011 14.6 3.8 0.6 20.1 7.7 8.5 13.6 30.7 25.5 9.5 35.7 88.4
3Q 2010 14.0 3.8 0.6 19.6 7.8 8.4 13.5 30.6 23.6 10.5 34.6 87.5
4Q 2010 14.4 4.1 0.6 20.3 7.9 8.5 13.7 31.0 23.9 10.8 35.2 88.1
1Q 2011 14.4 4.0 0.6 20.2 7.9 8.7 13.6 31.1 24.8 10.5 35.8 88.4
2Q 2011 14.3 3.7 0.6 19.8 7.7 8.6 13.6 30.8 25.4 9.4 35.2 87.6
3Q 2011 14.5 3.5 0.6 19.8 7.6 8.6 13.5 30.6 26.0 9.1 35.7 88.4
4Q 2011 15.3 3.7 0.6 20.8 7.6 8.5 13.6 30.6 26.1 9.3 36.1 89.4
1Q 2012 15.6 3.8 0.5 21.1 7.8 8.2 13.7 30.6 26.4 10.3 37.4 90.8
2Q 2012 15.5 3.6 0.5 20.8 7.6 8.0 13.6 30.1 26.6 10.5 37.9 90.7
3Q 2012 15.7 3.2 0.6 20.8 7.6 8.0 13.5 30.1 26.4 10.7 37.8 90.8
Balance
2007 -11.7 -10.4 -7.8 -28.6 -8.7 -2.7 8.6 -2.0 19.5 8.3 28.2 -1.3
2008 -10.9 -10.6 -7.5 -27.7 -8.8 -3.4 8.6 -2.8 20.2 7.9 28.7 0.0
2009 -10.1 -10.2 -7.4 -26.3 -9.6 -2.5 9.3 -2.0 18.5 7.8 26.8 0.0
2010 -10.0 -10.6 -7.4 -26.8 -10.7 -2.5 9.3 -3.0 18.5 8.0 27.1 -0.8
2011 -9.5 -10.6 -7.5 -26.5 -11.2 -2.6 9.2 -3.7 20.6 6.7 27.8 -0.5
3Q 2010 -10.1 -11.2 -7.0 -27.1 -10.2 -4.1 9.1 -4.3 18.8 7.8 27.1 -1.6
4Q 2010 -9.4 -10.8 -7.5 -26.5 -11.2 -3.4 9.3 -4.3 19.2 8.0 27.6 -1.7
1Q 2011 -9.8 -10.3 -8.0 -26.9 -11.2 -1.8 9.4 -2.8 19.9 7.6 27.9 -0.3
2Q 2011 -9.5 -10.5 -6.8 -25.6 -11.4 -2.5 9.2 -3.8 20.5 6.5 27.4 -0.1
3Q 2011 -9.7 -11.3 -7.4 -27.2 -10.9 -3.0 8.9 -4.1 21.1 6.2 27.9 -1.1
4Q 2011 -8.7 -10.5 -8.0 -26.0 -11.7 -2.7 9.0 -4.5 21.2 6.5 28.3 -0.4
1Q 2012 -7.9 -10.0 -8.6 -25.3 -11.7 -2.5 9.3 -4.0 21.2 7.3 29.2 1.6
2Q 2012 -8.3 -10.2 -7.5 -24.8 -11.7 -3.4 9.1 -5.1 21.5 7.6 29.7 1.7
3Q 2012 -8.3 -11.0 -7.6 -25.5 -11.3 -3.9 8.8 -5.5 21.3 7.7 29.6 0.7
CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil
Page 14
B2: World Petroleum Production (million barrels per day)
B3: OECD Commercial Petroleum Stocks (million barrels)
Notes: 1. Production includes crude oil, condensates and NGLs. 2. Reserve-Production ratio is based on latest month production and British Petroleum reserve
estimates. Sources: IEA Oil Market Report and BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
Notes: 1. Product includes only finished petroleum products. 2. Total stocks include NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. All
stocks are closing levels for respective reporting period. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.
OECD Non-OECD OPEC World
N. A. Europe Asia-Pac Total Asia Non-Asia FSU Total P. Gulf Non-Gulf Total Total1
2009 13.60 4.55 0.65 18.81 7.55 8.32 13.28 29.16 23.01 10.49 34.08 82.05
2010 14.07 4.13 0.61 18.82 7.80 8.46 13.55 29.81 23.26 10.73 34.61 83.24
2011 14.60 3.77 0.57 18.93 7.69 8.62 13.58 29.88 25.54 9.55 35.65 84.46
3Q 2011 14.55 3.62 0.51 18.68 7.57 8.52 13.54 29.63 25.96 9.12 35.72 84.03
4Q 2011 15.19 3.74 0.54 19.46 7.58 8.50 13.59 29.67 26.12 9.35 36.11 85.24
1Q 2012 15.58 3.80 0.52 19.90 7.79 8.27 13.73 29.79 26.35 10.34 37.41 87.10
2Q 2012 15.50 3.59 0.54 19.63 7.64 8.03 13.62 29.29 26.57 10.55 37.86 86.78
3Q 2012 15.70 3.25 0.61 19.55 7.63 7.99 13.54 29.17 26.40 10.68 37.81 86.53
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 7.9% -10.2% 19.6% 4.7% 0.8% -6.2% 0.0% -1.6% 1.7% 17.1% 5.9% 3.0%
Sep-11 14.34 3.63 0.51 18.48 7.55 8.32 13.67 29.54 25.89 8.96 35.50 83.52
Oct-11 14.63 3.93 0.60 19.17 7.64 8.38 13.72 29.75 25.90 9.40 35.98 84.90
Nov-11 15.02 3.84 0.54 19.40 7.63 8.48 13.82 29.92 26.23 9.67 36.55 85.87
Dec-11 15.04 3.85 0.60 19.49 7.76 8.50 13.68 29.95 26.21 9.81 36.72 86.16
Jan-12 15.36 3.89 0.50 19.75 7.74 8.52 13.73 29.99 26.30 10.20 37.13 86.87
Feb-12 15.49 3.91 0.49 19.89 7.77 8.12 13.76 29.66 26.37 10.30 37.41 86.96
Mar-12 15.42 3.69 0.48 19.59 7.79 8.03 13.75 29.57 26.47 10.50 37.70 86.86
Apr-12 15.41 3.64 0.52 19.56 7.67 8.02 13.71 29.40 26.82 10.49 38.03 86.99
May-12 15.33 3.51 0.53 19.37 7.74 8.04 13.75 29.52 26.66 10.53 38.01 86.90
Jun-12 15.52 3.45 0.52 19.50 7.56 8.01 13.65 29.22 26.46 10.57 37.73 86.45
Jul-12 15.64 3.52 0.68 19.84 7.64 7.91 13.64 29.20 26.54 10.74 37.90 86.94
Aug-12 15.81 3.26 0.60 19.67 7.62 7.99 13.50 29.11 26.42 10.77 38.01 86.79
Sep-12 15.64 2.95 0.54 19.13 7.64 8.10 13.46 29.19 26.19 10.54 37.50 85.82
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 9.1% -18.7% 5.9% 3.5% 1.2% -2.6% -1.5% -1.2% 1.2% 17.6% 5.6% 2.8%
R/P Ratio2 38.1 13.0 20.3 33.7 11.9 22.6 25.8 21.3 82.0 103.2 86.3 52.8
North America Europe Asia-Pacific OECD
Crude Product Total Crude Product Total Crude Product Total Crude Product1 Total2
2009 470 695 1,309 333 574 972 161 161 383 963 1,431 2,664
2010 471 706 1,327 323 554 947 158 163 390 952 1,422 2,664
2011 464 698 1,313 286 546 898 156 164 390 906 1,408 2,601
2Q 2011 500 680 1,339 318 546 932 160 171 405 977 1,397 2,676
3Q 2011 467 707 1,342 308 539 911 157 181 412 932 1,427 2,665
4Q 2011 464 698 1,313 286 546 898 156 164 390 906 1,408 2,601
1Q 2012 501 666 1,331 310 570 951 155 152 377 966 1,388 2,659
2Q 2012 523 668 1,363 316 539 927 170 167 413 1,010 1,374 2,702
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 4.8% -1.8% 1.7% -0.6% -1.3% -0.6% 6.8% -2.4% 2.0% 3.4% -1.7% 1.0%
Aug-11 484 710 1,361 311 553 930 155 181 410 950 1,443 2,700
Sep-11 467 707 1,342 308 539 911 157 181 412 932 1,427 2,665
Oct-11 476 690 1,334 300 535 901 155 181 408 931 1,406 2,643
Nov-11 476 698 1,336 303 537 909 156 179 409 935 1,414 2,654
Dec-11 464 698 1,313 286 546 898 156 164 390 906 1,408 2,601
Jan-12 479 705 1,340 291 561 921 154 164 391 924 1,430 2,652
Feb-12 478 687 1,323 301 548 919 162 153 386 941 1,388 2,629
Mar-12 501 666 1,331 310 570 951 155 152 377 966 1,388 2,659
Apr-12 510 657 1,334 312 561 945 165 162 403 988 1,379 2,681
May-12 523 659 1,354 311 547 928 172 167 416 1,007 1,373 2,697
Jun-12 523 668 1,363 316 539 927 170 167 413 1,010 1,374 2,702
Jul-12 509 687 1,368 308 558 937 177 173 425 994 1,418 2,729
Aug-12 492 691 1,353 311 562 944 167 182 421 970 1,435 2,718
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 1.7% -2.6% -0.6% 0.1% 1.6% 1.5% 7.5% 0.7% 2.8% 2.1% -0.6% 0.7%
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 15
B4: OPEC Crude Oil Production and Targets (million barrels per day)
Notes: 1. Does not include NGLs; OPEC production targets apply to crude oil only. 2. Iraq does not have an official OPEC target. 3. OPEC-10 production targets. 4. As
of latest month. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.
B5: OECD Refinery Activity Crude Input (MMbpd) - Utilization (percent) - Refining Margins ($US/barrel)
Notes: 1. Based on dated Brent being processed in average US Gulf cracking refinery. 2. Based on dated Brent in average Rotterdam cracking refinery. 3. Based on
spot Dubai in average Singapore hydroskimming refinery. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.
Non-Persian Gulf OPEC-11 OPEC-11
Arabia Iran UAE Kuwait Qatar Venez. Nigeria Libya Algeria Angola Ecuador Total1 Target Iraq2
2009 8.16 3.74 2.27 2.28 0.80 2.67 1.82 1.55 1.24 1.73 0.47 26.72 27.75 2.43
2010 8.24 3.70 2.31 2.30 0.74 2.53 2.08 1.55 1.21 1.73 0.47 26.86 27.75 2.36
2011 9.34 3.62 2.50 2.54 0.74 2.50 2.18 0.46 1.18 1.66 0.50 27.21 27.75 2.67
3Q 2011 9.64 3.53 2.53 2.56 0.82 2.42 2.26 0.04 1.28 1.69 0.49 27.26 24.85 2.67
4Q 2011 9.67 3.51 2.54 2.73 0.74 2.40 2.06 0.55 1.16 1.72 0.49 27.56 24.85 2.68
1Q 2012 9.95 3.37 2.61 2.72 0.75 2.51 2.06 1.30 1.16 1.77 0.48 28.67 24.85 2.69
2Q 2012 10.07 3.14 2.65 2.75 0.74 2.50 2.17 1.40 1.16 1.76 0.48 28.81 24.85 2.92
3Q 2012 9.90 2.80 2.69 2.77 0.75 2.52 2.17 1.42 1.18 1.72 0.49 28.40 24.85 3.07
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 2.7% -20.7% 6.3% 8.2% -8.5% 4.1% -4.0% ##### -7.8% 1.8% 0.0% 4.2% 15.0%
Sep-11 9.40 3.54 2.55 2.65 0.82 2.29 2.18 0.08 1.29 1.70 0.50 27 24.85 2.70
Oct-11 9.45 3.53 2.51 2.65 0.81 2.55 2.02 0.35 1.29 1.72 0.50 27.38 24.85 2.69
Nov-11 9.75 3.55 2.52 2.67 0.82 2.53 2.10 0.55 1.29 1.69 0.50 27.96 24.85 2.68
Dec-11 9.85 3.45 2.58 2.60 0.82 2.50 2.06 0.75 1.29 1.75 0.48 28.13 24.85 2.69
Jan-12 9.85 3.30 2.58 2.75 0.82 2.47 2.04 1.15 1.20 1.70 0.48 28.34 24.85 2.65
Feb-12 10.00 3.35 2.59 2.70 0.75 2.46 2.10 1.29 1.14 1.76 0.48 28.61 24.85 2.62
Mar-12 10.00 3.30 2.65 2.72 0.75 2.55 2.05 1.45 1.14 1.75 0.48 28.84 24.85 2.79
Apr-12 10.10 3.30 2.67 2.74 0.75 2.49 2.15 1.40 1.14 1.75 0.48 28.97 24.85 2.92
May-12 10.00 3.30 2.67 2.74 0.75 2.49 2.18 1.42 1.14 1.80 0.48 28.97 24.85 2.89
Jun-12 10.10 3.00 2.66 2.76 0.73 2.51 2.20 1.38 1.16 1.71 0.48 28.69 24.85 2.91
Jul-12 10.00 2.90 2.68 2.76 0.75 2.56 2.16 1.45 1.19 1.63 0.48 28.55 24.85 3.02
Aug-12 9.90 2.85 2.69 2.76 0.75 2.51 2.30 1.38 1.18 1.79 0.50 28.61 24.85 3.07
Sep-12 9.80 2.63 2.69 2.78 0.75 2.48 2.06 1.44 1.17 1.75 0.50 28.05 24.85 3.12
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 4.3% -25.7% 5.5% 4.9% -8.5% 8.3% -5.5% ##### -9.3% 2.9% 0.0% 3.9% 15.6%
Quotas3 8.05 3.34 2.22 2.22 0.73 1.99 1.67 1.47 1.20 1.52 0.43 24.85
Over/Under4 21.7% -21.3% 21.2% 25.2% 2.7% 24.6% 23.4% -2.0% -2.5% 15.1% 16.3% 12.9%
Persian Gulf
North America Europe Asia-Pacific OECD
Input Util. Margin1 Input Util. Margin2 Input Util. Margin3 Input Util.
2009 17.3 82.1 -1.54 12.2 78.9 1.30 6.4 71.1 -3.23 35.9 78.8
2010 17.7 84.2 -2.10 12.4 81.3 2.28 6.6 73.5 -2.41 36.6 81.1
2011 17.8 84.6 -4.17 12.1 79.7 0.62 6.5 73.0 -1.38 36.4 80.7
2Q 2011 17.6 83.7 -3.31 11.9 78.3 0.27 6.2 70.0 -2.0 35.7 79.1
3Q 2011 18.4 87.9 -3.17 12.4 81.3 0.97 6.4 72.1 -0.6 37.3 82.6
4Q 2011 17.9 85.2 -5.38 12.1 79.4 0.62 6.5 73.2 -1.1 36.5 80.9
1Q 2012 17.7 84.3 -1.46 12.0 78.5 1.72 6.9 77.9 -1.7 36.6 81.1
2Q 2012 18.2 86.8 3.90 11.9 78.2 6.30 6.5 73.3 -0.8 36.7 81.2
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 3.7% -217.8% -0.1% 2203.7% 4.8% -58.5% 2.6%
Aug-11 18.5 88.3 -0.96 12.6 82.7 2.53 6.5 73.4 0.4 37.7 83.5
Sep-11 18.4 87.8 -6.70 12.2 79.9 -0.39 6.4 71.5 -1.0 37.0 81.9
Oct-11 17.6 83.9 -3.83 11.9 78.1 1.52 6.2 70.0 0.4 35.7 79.2
Nov-11 18.0 86.0 -6.00 12.1 79.6 0.55 6.6 73.6 -1.6 36.7 81.4
Dec-11 18.0 85.6 -6.30 12.3 80.6 -0.21 6.8 75.8 -2.1 37.0 82.0
Jan-12 17.5 83.4 -1.86 12.1 79.7 2.69 6.9 76.9 0.8 36.5 80.8
Feb-12 18.0 85.9 -1.86 12.2 79.8 0.80 7.1 79.9 -1.3 37.3 82.6
Mar-12 17.6 83.7 -0.65 11.6 76.2 1.68 6.9 77.1 -4.7 36.0 79.8
Apr-12 17.6 84.1 3.49 11.8 77.5 4.88 6.7 75.1 -2.6 36.1 80.1
May-12 18.2 86.8 3.42 11.9 77.8 5.48 6.6 73.6 -0.3 36.6 81.2
Jun-12 18.7 89.4 4.78 12.1 79.3 8.53 6.4 71.4 0.5 37.2 82.4
Jul-12 18.8 89.5 3.71 12.8 83.7 7.97 6.8 75.7 1.4 38.3 84.8
Aug-12 18.5 88.0 5.68 12.8 83.7 7.83 6.9 77.2 1.8 38.1 84.4
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -0.3% -691.7% 1.2% 209% 5.2% 364.1% 1.1%
CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil
Page 16
C1: US Petroleum Supply and Demand Balance (million barrels per day)
Notes: 1. Does not balance because of unaccounted for crude oil. Regional surpluses (+) and deficits (-) are balanced through net-imports/transfers and stock chang-
es in the short-term, and net-imports/transfers in the longer term. 2. As of most recent month. Supply includes crude oil, condensates, NGLs, oil from non-
conventional sources and processing gains. Demand is for petroleum products. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.
United States1 East Mid-West
Supply Demand Net-Imp. Stk. Chg. Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance
2009 8.91 18.64 9.69 0.16 0.11 5.62 -5.51 1.73 4.71 -2.97
2010 9.48 19.15 9.46 0.05 0.12 5.61 -5.48 2.01 4.86 -2.84
2011 9.89 18.84 8.43 -0.12 0.14 5.40 -5.26 2.26 4.81 -2.56
2Q 2011 9.80 18.75 8.97 0.41 0.13 5.24 -5.11 2.17 4.72 -2.55
3Q 2011 9.92 18.83 8.29 -0.29 0.14 5.21 -5.07 2.26 4.92 -2.66
4Q 2011 10.26 18.68 7.76 -0.32 0.14 5.40 -5.25 2.44 4.89 -2.45
1Q 2012 10.54 18.39 7.71 0.27 0.14 5.38 -5.24 2.48 4.63 -2.15
2Q 2012 10.64 18.64 7.83 0.33 0.14 5.28 -5.14 2.57 4.82 -2.24
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 8.6% -0.6% -12.7% 10.3% 0.7% 18.6% 2.0%
Jul-11 9.86 18.56 8.75 0.40 0.14 5.18 -5.04 2.23 4.83 -2.60
Aug-11 10.04 19.15 8.07 -0.62 0.14 5.21 -5.07 2.26 4.97 -2.71
Sep-11 9.86 18.80 8.05 -0.66 0.13 5.24 -5.11 2.29 4.95 -2.67
Oct-11 10.11 18.56 7.89 -0.36 0.13 5.27 -5.13 2.38 4.98 -2.60
Nov-11 10.29 18.73 7.98 0.07 0.15 5.52 -5.37 2.46 4.88 -2.42
Dec-11 10.37 18.74 7.41 -0.65 0.15 5.40 -5.25 2.48 4.80 -2.33
Jan-12 10.49 18.27 8.11 0.64 0.14 5.35 -5.21 2.48 4.62 -2.13
Feb-12 10.55 18.73 7.48 -0.23 0.14 5.43 -5.29 2.51 4.74 -2.24
Mar-12 10.58 18.17 7.55 0.41 0.15 5.35 -5.21 2.46 4.53 -2.07
Apr-12 10.48 18.28 7.37 -0.02 0.14 5.26 -5.12 2.52 4.65 -2.13
May-12 10.75 18.71 7.94 0.52 0.14 5.30 -5.16 2.61 4.90 -2.30
Jun-12 10.70 18.92 8.18 0.49 0.15 5.27 -5.13 2.59 4.90 -2.31
Jul-12 10.58 18.60 7.54 0.03 0.14 5.10 -4.95 2.49 4.86 -2.38
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 7.3% 0.2% -13.8% 2.1% -1.6% 11.4% 0.7%
% of Total2 100.0% 100.0% 1.4% 27.4% 23.5% 26.1%
South-Central North-West West Finished Petroleum Products
Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance
2009 4.85 4.82 0.03 0.68 0.65 0.03 1.54 2.83 -1.30
2010 5.13 5.14 0.00 0.74 0.65 0.09 1.47 2.90 -1.43
2011 5.29 5.12 0.17 0.79 0.67 0.12 1.42 2.83 -1.41
2Q 2011 5.29 5.25 0.03 0.78 0.67 0.11 1.43 2.86 -1.43
3Q 2011 5.36 5.08 0.27 0.80 0.70 0.10 1.37 2.92 -1.55
4Q 2011 5.40 4.97 0.43 0.83 0.66 0.17 1.44 2.76 -1.32
1Q 2012 5.63 5.04 0.58 0.86 0.70 0.17 1.43 2.65 -1.22
2Q 2012 5.72 5.05 0.67 0.85 0.69 0.16 1.36 2.80 -1.45
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 8.3% -3.9% 8.3% 2.1% -4.9% -2.0%
Jul-11 5.38 4.93 0.45 0.81 0.73 0.08 1.31 2.89 -1.58
Aug-11 5.47 5.26 0.21 0.81 0.72 0.09 1.38 3.00 -1.62
Sep-11 5.23 5.06 0.17 0.77 0.65 0.12 1.43 2.89 -1.46
Oct-11 5.38 4.90 0.47 0.80 0.64 0.16 1.42 2.77 -1.36
Nov-11 5.41 4.88 0.53 0.83 0.66 0.17 1.44 2.80 -1.36
Dec-11 5.42 5.14 0.29 0.84 0.68 0.16 1.47 2.71 -1.24
Jan-12 5.55 4.96 0.59 0.86 0.68 0.18 1.46 2.66 -1.20
Feb-12 5.62 5.19 0.44 0.87 0.71 0.16 1.41 2.66 -1.25
Mar-12 5.70 4.98 0.72 0.87 0.70 0.17 1.40 2.61 -1.21
Apr-12 5.63 5.00 0.63 0.84 0.67 0.17 1.36 2.71 -1.35
May-12 5.76 5.05 0.72 0.86 0.67 0.19 1.37 2.78 -1.41
Jun-12 5.78 5.10 0.67 0.84 0.71 0.13 1.35 2.92 -1.58
Jul-12 5.86 5.02 0.84 0.84 0.76 0.08 1.25 2.86 -1.61
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 9.0% 1.8% 4.2% 4.1% -4.3% -1.0%
% of Total2 55.4% 27.0% 7.9% 4.1% 11.9% 15.4%
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 17
C2: US Petroleum Demand by Product (million barrels per day)
Notes: 1. Total includes other finished petroleum products. 2. Total petroleum demand includes refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons.
Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.
C3: US Petroleum Stocks (million barrels)
Notes: 1. Petroleum stocks include crude oil, finished products, NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. 2. Includes Strategic
Petroleum Reserves. 3. Total includes other finished petroleum products. All stocks are closing levels for respective reporting period. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply
Monthly.
Finished Petroleum Products NGLs Petroleum
Gasoline Jet Fuel Distil. Resid. Total1 Total Total2
2009 8.98 1.40 3.62 0.50 16.62 2.15 18.73
2010 9.03 1.43 3.81 0.54 16.95 2.18 19.15
2011 8.74 1.43 3.85 0.48 16.57 2.26 18.84
2Q 2011 8.86 1.48 3.75 0.52 16.72 2.06 18.75
3Q 2011 8.87 1.48 3.78 0.37 16.77 2.06 18.83
4Q 2011 8.60 1.38 3.93 0.44 16.34 2.37 18.68
1Q 2012 8.48 1.35 3.81 0.41 15.88 2.41 18.39
2Q 2012 8.95 1.44 3.71 0.36 16.49 2.15 18.64
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 1.0% -2.5% -1.1% -30.7% -1.3% 4.2% -0.6%
Jul-11 8.96 1.47 3.45 0.32 16.46 2.03 18.56
Aug-11 8.91 1.56 3.96 0.32 17.11 2.06 19.15
Sep-11 8.75 1.42 3.93 0.48 16.73 2.10 18.80
Oct-11 8.62 1.37 3.94 0.40 16.47 2.20 18.56
Nov-11 8.53 1.43 4.06 0.40 16.41 2.31 18.73
Dec-11 8.66 1.35 3.78 0.52 16.13 2.60 18.74
Jan-12 8.19 1.31 3.81 0.42 15.64 2.57 18.27
Feb-12 8.62 1.35 3.95 0.39 16.14 2.45 18.73
Mar-12 8.63 1.38 3.67 0.42 15.88 2.23 18.17
Apr-12 8.82 1.36 3.66 0.41 16.15 2.13 18.28
May-12 9.00 1.41 3.75 0.29 16.54 2.22 18.71
Jun-12 9.04 1.55 3.73 0.37 16.80 2.09 18.92
Jul-12 8.82 1.47 3.55 0.42 16.38 2.19 18.60
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -1.6% 0.1% 2.9% 32.3% -0.5% 7.6% 0.2%
Petroleum Stocks1 Crude Oil Finished Products
East Mid-West S-Cent N-West West U.S. Total2 Gasoline Jet Fuel Distil. Resid. Total3
2009 192 249 1,164 31 139 1,776 1,052 86 43 165 38 375
2010 173 262 1,182 34 143 1,794 1,059 63 43 164 41 357
2011 171 268 1,134 35 143 1,751 1,027 61 42 150 34 333
2Q 2011 171 264 1,192 34 147 1,808 1,085 56 42 144 37 330
3Q 2011 181 272 1,156 33 140 1,781 1,028 57 46 154 35 335
4Q 2011 171 268 1,134 35 143 1,751 1,027 61 42 150 34 333
1Q 2012 162 271 1,163 36 145 1,777 1,064 54 39 134 36 314
2Q 2012 150 283 1,197 35 144 1,808 1,082 52 38 120 37 296
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -12.6% 6.8% 0.5% 4.6% -2.0% 0.0% -0.3% -7.2% -9.0% -16.5% -1.2% -10.3%
Jul-11 179 271 1,193 32 145 1,820 1,066 54 44 158 37 345
Aug-11 181 269 1,180 32 138 1,801 1,046 55 43 157 39 340
Sep-11 181 272 1,156 33 140 1,781 1,028 57 46 154 35 335
Oct-11 175 268 1,155 33 139 1,770 1,035 56 46 143 37 323
Nov-11 177 267 1,151 34 142 1,772 1,034 58 42 144 39 328
Dec-11 171 268 1,134 35 143 1,751 1,027 61 42 150 34 333
Jan-12 176 274 1,140 36 145 1,771 1,036 63 42 149 34 336
Feb-12 167 271 1,143 36 148 1,764 1,043 59 41 139 36 325
Mar-12 162 271 1,163 36 145 1,777 1,064 54 39 134 36 314
Apr-12 152 276 1,173 36 139 1,776 1,073 51 40 125 34 300
May-12 152 280 1,186 36 139 1,794 1,082 50 40 122 33 295
Jun-12 150 283 1,197 35 144 1,808 1,082 52 38 120 37 296
Jul-12 155 280 1,199 34 142 1,809 1,066 53 40 127 36 303
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -13.6% 3.5% 0.5% 3.7% -1.8% -0.6% -0.1% -2.0% -9.9% -20.0% -4.1% -12.1%
CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil
Page 18
C4: US Petroleum Net Imports by Source (million barrels per day)
Notes: 1. Total includes net-imports from Russia and Asia-Pacific region. 2. Total OPEC includes the other eight cartel members. 3. As of latest month. Source EIA
Petroleum Supply Monthly.
C5: US Regional Crude Oil Production (million barrels per day)
Notes: 1. California includes Federal Offshore crude oil production. 2. Gulf of Mexico includes Federal Offshore production adjacent to Texas and Louisiana. 3. Crude
oil Reserve-Production ratio as of latest production month. Crude oil production does not include NGLs. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.
OPEC
Canada Mexico Lat. Am. Europe Africa M.E. Total1 Venez. S. Arabia Nigeria Total2 P. Gulf
2009 2.26 0.95 1.84 0.37 1.39 1.73 9.90 1.05 1.01 0.79 4.70 1.69
2010 2.34 0.83 1.56 0.30 1.60 1.76 9.46 0.95 1.12 1.00 4.79 1.75
2011 2.41 0.64 1.42 0.09 1.23 1.89 8.43 0.91 1.19 0.80 4.42 1.84
2Q 2011 2.27 0.62 1.56 0.27 1.32 1.89 8.97 0.99 1.16 0.86 4.54 1.84
3Q 2011 2.37 0.68 1.36 -0.09 1.16 2.10 8.29 0.85 1.29 0.77 4.51 2.02
4Q 2011 2.47 0.54 1.33 0.00 0.95 1.96 7.76 0.79 1.22 0.64 4.11 1.91
1Q 2012 2.61 0.54 1.35 0.08 0.76 2.13 7.71 0.85 1.41 0.40 4.05 2.12
2Q 2012 2.59 0.49 1.03 0.02 0.79 2.38 7.83 0.79 1.50 0.43 4.37 2.38
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 13.9% -20.1% -34.0% -91.0% -40.2% 25.6% -12.7% -20.5% 30.1% -49.6% -3.6% 29.4%
Jul-11 2.33 0.75 1.47 -0.03 1.34 2.20 8.75 0.92 1.33 0.87 4.83 2.14
Aug-11 2.31 0.69 1.28 -0.14 1.22 1.97 8.07 0.86 1.08 0.87 4.52 1.91
Sep-11 2.47 0.59 1.32 -0.09 0.92 2.12 8.05 0.79 1.48 0.56 4.18 2.02
Oct-11 2.37 0.58 1.37 -0.01 0.90 1.94 7.89 0.86 1.12 0.69 4.16 1.90
Nov-11 2.45 0.57 1.15 0.12 1.04 1.99 7.99 0.73 1.22 0.70 4.25 1.94
Dec-11 2.58 0.48 1.47 -0.12 0.90 1.96 7.41 0.79 1.31 0.53 3.93 1.90
Jan-12 2.66 0.58 1.26 -0.01 0.86 2.23 8.10 0.71 1.42 0.50 4.09 2.21
Feb-12 2.62 0.60 1.43 0.09 0.68 1.94 7.48 0.90 1.42 0.35 3.89 1.94
Mar-12 2.56 0.43 1.38 0.15 0.76 2.22 7.55 0.95 1.37 0.36 4.18 2.22
Apr-12 2.56 0.54 1.00 0.01 0.78 2.19 7.37 0.85 1.58 0.45 4.19 2.21
May-12 2.62 0.48 1.02 0.07 0.74 2.57 7.94 0.83 1.47 0.36 4.49 2.56
Jun-12 2.59 0.46 1.07 -0.01 0.84 2.37 8.18 0.69 1.45 0.50 4.44 2.37
Jul-12 2.54 0.43 1.25 0.10 0.63 2.12 7.54 0.99 1.47 0.37 4.22 2.12
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 8.8% -42.2% -14.6% -400.0% -52.8% -3.5% -13.8% 7.4% 10.5% -58.0% -12.6% -1.2%
% of Total3 33.6% 5.7% 16.6% 1.3% 8.4% 28.2% 100.0% 13.1% 19.4% 4.9% 55.9% 28.1%
Region of Origin
PAD District U.S. Major Producers
East Mid-West S-Cent N-West West Total Alaska Calif.1 Louis. Texas G. of Mex.2
2009 0.02 0.58 3.06 0.35 1.27 5.27 0.63 0.63 0.20 1.08 1.51
2010 0.02 0.65 3.18 0.35 1.24 5.44 0.62 0.62 0.18 1.12 1.65
2011 0.02 0.79 3.29 0.37 1.17 5.63 0.56 0.60 0.19 1.36 1.45
2Q 2011 0.02 0.73 3.18 0.36 1.19 5.49 0.60 0.59 0.18 1.24 1.49
3Q 2011 0.02 0.79 3.32 0.37 1.12 5.62 0.53 0.60 0.19 1.41 1.43
4Q 2011 0.02 0.87 3.29 0.39 1.15 5.73 0.56 0.58 0.18 1.54 1.28
1Q 2012 0.02 0.96 3.42 0.40 1.20 6.01 0.61 0.59 0.19 1.64 1.28
2Q 2012 0.02 1.00 3.54 0.41 1.14 6.11 0.56 0.57 0.18 1.73 1.31
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 10.7% 36.8% 11.3% 12.9% -4.6% 11.3% -5.9% -3.4% 0.6% 39.5% -11.7%
Jul-11 0.02 0.76 3.29 0.37 1.18 5.61 0.58 0.60 0.19 1.36 1.46
Aug-11 0.02 0.75 3.21 0.35 1.11 5.44 0.54 0.58 0.18 1.36 1.38
Sep-11 0.02 0.85 3.46 0.39 1.08 5.80 0.47 0.61 0.19 1.51 1.45
Oct-11 0.02 0.84 3.38 0.39 1.12 5.75 0.53 0.59 0.18 1.51 1.39
Nov-11 0.02 0.87 3.19 0.40 1.17 5.64 0.58 0.58 0.18 1.54 1.15
Dec-11 0.02 0.90 3.32 0.39 1.15 5.78 0.57 0.58 0.18 1.58 1.29
Jan-12 0.02 0.90 3.22 0.37 1.13 5.65 0.57 0.56 0.18 1.55 1.18
Feb-12 0.03 1.00 3.56 0.42 1.28 6.28 0.65 0.63 0.20 1.70 1.33
Mar-12 0.02 0.97 3.50 0.40 1.20 6.09 0.61 0.59 0.19 1.67 1.33
Apr-12 0.02 0.95 3.44 0.40 1.14 5.94 0.56 0.57 0.18 1.66 1.29
May-12 0.02 1.00 3.67 0.41 1.15 6.26 0.57 0.59 0.18 1.76 1.41
Jun-12 0.02 1.04 3.53 0.42 1.12 6.13 0.55 0.56 0.18 1.77 1.25
Jul-12 0.02 1.08 3.62 0.43 1.12 6.27 0.55 0.57 0.19 1.83 1.27
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 3.9% 42.5% 9.9% 18.0% -5.2% 11.6% -6.0% -5.3% 0.0% 34.8% -12.9%
R/P Ratio3 6.9 7.6 8.6 11.2 17.2 10.2 18.6 15.9 6.2 8.5 8.9
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 19
C6: US Refinery Activity Crude Input (MMbpd) - Utilization (percent)
Notes: 1) As of most recent month. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.
C7: US Refinery Margins ($US per barrel)
Note: Based on specific crude being processed in average cracking refinery in a given area. As of February 2010, NY Harbor Arab Med. is now East Coast Composite.
Source: Oil and Gas Journal.
East Mid-West South-Central North-West West U.S.
Input Util. Input Util. Input Util. Input Util. Input Util. Input Util.
2009 1.25 77.9 3.21 87.1 7.30 86.1 0.55 87.6 2.62 81.8 14.93 84.8
2010 1.14 82.4 3.34 89.7 7.66 89.0 0.55 88.4 2.63 82.2 15.32 87.4
2011 1.20 77.2 3.43 92.6 7.81 90.8 0.56 89.0 2.67 86.9 15.66 89.2
2Q 2011 1.08 66.6 3.36 90.3 7.69 89.0 0.55 87.3 2.55 81.4 15.22 85.8
3Q 2011 1.25 77.4 3.45 92.7 7.94 91.9 0.54 85.8 2.75 88.0 15.93 89.8
4Q 2011 1.46 105.9 3.60 98.0 8.29 97.6 0.60 96.5 2.88 99.6 16.83 98.7
1Q 2012 1.11 102.6 3.57 98.1 8.34 96.9 0.61 97.3 2.85 97.1 16.48 97.6
2Q 2012 1.04 91.3 3.54 98.5 8.16 94.0 0.59 94.3 2.71 92.1 16.05 94.5
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -3.1% 5.4% 6.1% 8.0% 6.5% 5.4%
Jul-11 1.29 79.7 3.48 93.6 7.91 91.5 0.55 87.8 2.79 89.0 16.02 90.3
Aug-11 1.23 75.8 3.37 90.7 8.13 94.1 0.55 88.6 2.74 87.5 16.03 90.4
Sep-11 1.24 76.6 3.49 93.7 7.78 90.0 0.51 81.1 2.74 87.5 15.76 88.8
Oct-11 1.13 69.9 3.36 90.2 7.60 87.9 0.56 89.4 2.39 76.4 15.04 84.8
Nov-11 1.62 127.2 3.72 102.0 8.64 103.7 0.62 100.0 3.13 119.8 17.73 107.5
Dec-11 1.62 131.1 3.72 102.0 8.64 101.5 0.62 100.0 3.13 106.3 17.73 104.6
Jan-12 1.19 117.6 3.66 101.1 8.73 102.0 0.62 100.0 3.12 106.3 17.32 103.4
Feb-12 1.19 114.2 3.66 101.1 8.73 102.1 0.62 100.0 3.11 109.2 17.31 103.8
Mar-12 0.95 79.6 3.38 92.1 7.58 86.8 0.57 92.0 2.33 76.9 14.80 85.9
Apr-12 0.96 80.9 3.55 96.8 7.54 86.4 0.53 84.6 2.35 77.5 14.93 86.6
May-12 1.19 112.7 3.67 106.0 8.73 101.6 0.62 100.0 3.03 109.2 17.23 104.4
Jun-12 0.98 82.7 3.41 93.1 8.22 94.2 0.61 98.2 2.76 91.0 15.98 92.8
Jul-12 0.98 82.7 3.48 94.9 8.18 93.8 0.60 96.3 2.74 90.5 15.98 92.8
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -23.7% -0.1% 3.4% 9.7% -1.7% -0.2%
% of Total1 6.2% 21.8% 51.2% 3.8% 17.1% 100.0%
NY Harbor Chicago US Gulf Los Angeles
(East Coast Comp.) (WTI) (WTS) (ANS)
2009 3.62 5.28 5.06 12.57
2010 5.49 6.42 7.53 14.47
2011 9.38 22.39 16.94 16.76
3Q 2011 16.13 31.77 16.50 14.82
4Q 2011 5.69 17.05 6.33 15.29
1Q 2012 8.72 17.28 12.41 12.19
2Q 2012 11.69 29.64 15.71 9.80
3Q 2012 15.61 35.69 17.98 11.96
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -3.3% 12.3% 9.0% -19.3%
Sep-11 25.86 31.12 7.19 13.57
Oct-11 6.96 27.15 8.47 19.55
Nov-11 6.61 16.37 5.21 12.19
Dec-11 3.51 7.62 5.32 14.13
Jan-12 9.79 11.55 11.35 16.87
Feb-12 8.89 13.56 12.31 7.54
Mar-12 7.47 26.73 13.57 12.16
Apr-12 12.25 25.23 17.11 8.99
May-12 11.19 26.99 13.86 15.94
Jun-12 11.64 36.71 16.15 4.48
Jul-12 14.60 29.10 15.63 7.25
Aug-12 14.91 39.25 18.61 14.23
Sep-12 17.31 38.73 19.69 14.39
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -33.1% 24.5% 173.9% 6.0%
CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil
Page 20
D1: Canada Petroleum Supply and Demand Balances (million barrels per day)
D2: Canada Demand by Product (million barrels per day)
Notes: 1. As of most recent month. See notes for Table C1 for additional comments. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.
D3: Canada Petroleum Stocks (million barrels)
Notes: 1. Total includes other finished petroleum products. 2. Total petroleum demand includes refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.
Notes: 1. Total includes other finished petroleum products. 2. Total petroleum stocks include NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. All stocks are closing levels. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.
Canada East West
Supply Demand Net-Exp Stk. Chg. Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance
2009 3.21 1.68 1.58 0.05 0.30 1.04 -0.74 2.92 0.64 2.28
2010 3.32 1.73 1.68 0.08 0.32 1.07 -0.75 3.01 0.66 2.35
2011 3.53 1.64 1.84 -0.05 0.32 1.02 -0.70 3.21 0.63 2.59
4Q 2010 3.57 1.70 1.89 0.02 0.36 1.04 -0.67 3.20 0.66 2.54
1Q 2011 3.63 1.75 1.78 -0.10 0.38 1.07 -0.69 3.25 0.68 2.58
2Q 2011 3.30 1.56 1.69 -0.06 0.37 0.97 -0.61 2.94 0.58 2.36
3Q 2011 3.61 1.62 1.95 -0.04 0.37 1.01 -0.63 3.24 0.61 2.62
4Q 2011 3.79 1.65 2.15 0.01 0.37 1.02 -0.65 3.42 0.63 2.79
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 6.1% -3.1% 13.9% 1.4% -1.8% 6.7% -5.0%
Jan-11 3.65 1.63 1.92 -0.10 0.38 1.00 -0.62 3.27 0.63 2.63
Feb-11 3.63 1.76 1.74 -0.13 0.37 1.08 -0.71 3.26 0.68 2.58
Mar-11 3.61 1.86 1.69 -0.07 0.38 1.13 -0.76 3.23 0.72 2.51
Apr-11 3.51 1.59 1.85 -0.07 0.40 0.99 -0.60 3.11 0.60 2.51
May-11 3.18 1.57 1.56 -0.05 0.39 0.97 -0.57 2.79 0.60 2.19
Jun-11 3.23 1.51 1.66 -0.05 0.31 0.96 -0.66 2.92 0.55 2.37
Jul-11 3.53 1.54 2.05 0.06 0.36 0.97 -0.61 3.16 0.57 2.60
Aug-11 3.73 1.63 2.02 -0.08 0.39 1.02 -0.63 3.34 0.61 2.73
Sep-11 3.57 1.69 1.79 -0.09 0.37 1.03 -0.67 3.20 0.66 2.54
Oct-11 3.68 1.69 2.00 0.01 0.36 1.05 -0.69 3.32 0.64 2.68
Nov-11 3.72 1.68 2.05 0.01 0.37 1.03 -0.66 3.35 0.64 2.71
Dec-11 3.96 1.58 2.39 0.01 0.38 0.97 -0.60 3.58 0.60 2.98
Jan-12 3.82 1.61 2.15 -0.07 0.37 0.99 -0.62 3.45 0.62 2.84
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 4.8% -1.4% 11.8% -4.1% -0.9% 5.8% -2.1%
% of Total1 100.0% 100.0% 9.6% 61.5% 90.4% 38.5%
Finished Products NGLs Petrol.
Gasoline Distil. Resid. Total1 Total Total2
2009 0.73 0.51 0.09 1.70 0.53 2.22
2010 0.75 0.55 0.09 1.79 0.53 2.32
2011 0.76 0.58 0.08 1.82 0.55 2.37
2Q 2011 0.77 0.55 0.08 1.79 0.49 2.28
3Q 2011 0.80 0.59 0.07 1.90 0.49 2.39
4Q 2011 0.75 0.58 0.08 1.77 0.57 2.35
1Q 2012 0.77 0.56 0.08 1.78 0.57 2.35
2Q 2012 0.82 0.56 0.08 1.89 0.38 2.27
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 6.8% 2.4% 0.1% 5.6% -21.6% -0.3%
Jul-11 0.81 0.53 0.06 1.83 0.48 2.31
Aug-11 0.83 0.60 0.08 1.97 0.54 2.51
Sep-11 0.75 0.65 0.08 1.90 0.45 2.35
Oct-11 0.74 0.56 0.07 1.76 0.50 2.25
Nov-11 0.76 0.63 0.08 1.79 0.55 2.35
Dec-11 0.76 0.54 0.10 1.77 0.67 2.44
Jan-12 0.76 0.57 0.08 1.74 0.56 2.31
Feb-12 0.72 0.55 0.07 1.71 0.57 2.28
Mar-12 0.82 0.57 0.09 1.89 0.56 2.45
Apr-12 0.84 0.51 0.08 1.79 0.38 2.18
May-12 0.81 0.61 0.07 1.89 0.38 2.28
Jun-12 0.81 0.56 0.09 1.98 0.38 2.37
Jul-12 0.84 0.55 0.08 1.98 0.38 2.37
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 3.0% 3.4% 30.2% 8.4% -20.7% 2.3%
Finished Products Crude Oil Petrol.
Gasoline Distil. Resid. Total1 Total Total2
2009 15.5 15.8 2.6 65.8 76.5 142.3
2010 19.2 16.7 3.3 54.5 99.5 154.0
2011 19.0 18.0 2.9 56.1 100.1 156.2
2Q 2011 17.1 14.4 3.0 52.1 98.9 151.0
3Q 2011 19.4 15.1 3.4 54.4 97.1 151.5
4Q 2011 19.0 18.0 2.9 56.1 100.1 156.2
1Q 2012 19.4 17.3 3.1 56.5 101.1 157.6
2Q 2012 16.3 13.7 3.0 50.1 101.1 151.2
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -4.3% -4.9% 2.5% -3.7% 2.2% 0.2%
Jul-11 16.0 16.5 3.2 53.8 100.2 154.0
Aug-11 18.1 15.6 2.8 53.5 98.5 152.0
Sep-11 19.4 15.1 3.4 54.4 97.1 151.5
Oct-11 19.0 15.0 3.2 53.8 98.2 152.0
Nov-11 18.9 14.8 3.2 52.8 100.3 153.0
Dec-11 19.0 18.0 2.9 56.1 100.1 156.2
Jan-12 19.4 18.7 2.6 57.0 101.1 158.1
Feb-12 20.5 18.2 2.7 58.4 101.1 159.5
Mar-12 19.4 17.3 3.1 56.5 101.1 157.6
Apr-12 18.8 17.0 3.1 55.9 101.1 157.0
May-12 17.1 15.0 3.0 51.3 101.1 152.4
Jun-12 16.3 13.7 3.0 50.1 101.1 151.2
Jul-12 17.4 13.9 3.0 51.2 101.1 152.3
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 9.1% -15.5% -6.2% -4.8% 0.9% -1.1%
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 21
D4: Canada Crude Oil Production (million barrels per day)
Note: Total includes small amounts of production from Manitoba and Ontario. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.
D5: Canada Petroleum Imports by Source (thousand barrels per day)
Notes: 1. Includes all non-OPEC production. 2. Includes production by the other seven OPEC members. 3. As of most recent month. Sources: Statistics Canada’s
Energy Statistics Handbook.
Major Producers Canada Petroleum Type
Alta. Sask. B.C. N.W.T. Atlantic Total1 Light SCO Heavy Bitumen NGLs
2009 1.97 0.42 0.03 0.02 0.27 2.74 0.77 0.77 0.43 0.61 0.15
2010 2.06 0.42 0.03 0.02 0.28 2.85 0.80 0.79 0.42 0.68 0.14
2011 2.23 0.43 0.04 0.01 0.27 3.03 0.83 0.86 0.43 0.76 0.14
4Q 2010 2.19 0.43 0.03 0.02 0.27 2.98 0.81 0.90 0.42 0.70 0.14
1Q 2011 2.18 0.44 0.04 0.02 0.27 2.98 0.83 0.84 0.42 0.74 0.14
2Q 2011 2.06 0.40 0.03 0.01 0.27 2.81 0.78 0.74 0.41 0.73 0.14
3Q 2011 2.32 0.43 0.03 0.01 0.28 3.11 0.82 0.94 0.43 0.78 0.14
4Q 2011 2.38 0.47 0.04 0.01 0.26 3.21 0.89 0.93 0.45 0.79 0.14
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 8.4% 8.2% 20.4% -12.6% -0.1% 7.9% 10.5% 3.9% 5.4% 12.8% 2.8%
Jan-11 2.17 0.43 0.04 0.02 0.27 2.96 0.82 0.83 0.42 0.74 0.14
Feb-11 2.21 0.44 0.04 0.02 0.26 3.00 0.82 0.85 0.42 0.75 0.14
Mar-11 2.17 0.44 0.04 0.02 0.27 2.98 0.84 0.83 0.43 0.73 0.14
Apr-11 2.17 0.41 0.04 0.02 0.29 2.97 0.85 0.82 0.41 0.74 0.15
May-11 1.91 0.40 0.03 0.01 0.29 2.68 0.79 0.61 0.42 0.72 0.14
Jun-11 2.09 0.39 0.03 0.00 0.23 2.78 0.72 0.77 0.41 0.74 0.14
Jul-11 2.28 0.41 0.03 0.01 0.28 3.04 0.78 0.90 0.42 0.79 0.14
Aug-11 2.38 0.43 0.03 0.01 0.30 3.19 0.84 0.99 0.43 0.79 0.14
Sep-11 2.30 0.44 0.04 0.01 0.28 3.11 0.85 0.93 0.44 0.75 0.14
Oct-11 2.36 0.46 0.04 0.01 0.27 3.18 0.87 0.95 0.44 0.78 0.14
Nov-11 2.33 0.46 0.04 0.01 0.27 3.17 0.89 0.90 0.44 0.78 0.14
Dec-11 2.45 0.48 0.04 0.01 0.26 3.29 0.92 0.95 0.45 0.81 0.15
Jan-12 2.42 0.47 0.04 0.01 0.26 3.25 0.90 0.94 0.45 0.81 0.14
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 11.6% 9.2% 8.4% -7.7% -2.3% 9.9% 10.1% 13.3% 7.0% 9.6% 0.3%
R/P Ratio2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Non-OPEC OPEC Imports
Mexico U.S. U.K. Norway Total1 Algeria Nigeria S. Arabia Venez. Total2 P. Gulf Total
2009 26 14 108 98 492 129 48 66 25 294 92 786
2010 23 13 99 72 451 112 71 69 27 318 109 770
2011 20 8 40 76 379 129 54 73 15 300 102 679
2Q 2011 21 5 58 46 349 121 47 91 46 317 103 666
3Q 2011 32 7 10 118 369 114 63 57 13 256 67 625
4Q 2011 15 10 26 69 392 143 28 73 0 294 123 686
1Q 2012 15 3 42 41 326 140 63 79 9 364 152 690
2Q 2012 22 0 37 45 354 151 14 80 17 343 160 697
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 7.8% -100.0% -35.9% -2.5% 1.3% 25.4% -70.1% -12.3% -62.7% 8.1% 54.9% 4.5%
Jul-11 29 6 0 75 319 107 84 69 21 281 69 600
Aug-11 39 6 29 180 449 106 21 33 17 177 33 626
Sep-11 27 9 0 100 339 128 83 69 0 311 100 650
Oct-11 33 11 35 101 517 127 31 80 0 238 80 755
Nov-11 10 11 43 33 346 150 32 70 0 400 218 746
Dec-11 0 8 0 72 311 153 22 70 0 245 70 557
Jan-12 22 0 44 45 270 182 62 68 0 400 156 670
Feb-12 0 8 55 2 421 123 69 71 26 337 119 758
Mar-12 22 0 27 76 285 115 59 99 0 356 182 641
Apr-12 19 0 20 24 307 151 12 95 32 333 138 640
May-12 26 0 14 24 367 165 30 77 0 436 241 803
Jun-12 23 0 77 88 388 139 0 67 20 259 100 647
Jul-12 26 0 23 65 395 99 67 69 21 319 132 714
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -10.6% -100.0% #DIV/0! -13.8% 23.6% -7.3% -20.6% 0.0% 0.0% 13.7% 92.7% 19.0%
% of Total3 3.6% 0.0% 3.3% 9.1% 55.3% 13.9% 9.3% 9.6% 2.9% 44.7% 18.5% 100.0%
CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil
Page 22
E1: World Drilling Activity (active oil and gas rigs)
Notes: 1. Does not include active rigs in the Former Soviet Union and onshore rigs in China. 2. As of latest month. Source: Baker Hughes, Inc.
E2: North American Drilling Activity (active oil and gas rigs)
Notes: 1. Excluding Mexico. 2. Includes drilling on inland waterways. 3. As of latest month. Source: Baker Hughes, Inc.
OECD Non-OECD OPEC World
N. A. Europe Asia-Pac Total Asia Non-Asia Total1 P. Gulf Non-Gulf Total Total1
2009 1,432 69 25 1,527 156 323 479 102 170 272 2,277
2010 1,968 78 21 2,067 189 390 579 109 173 282 2,929
2011 2,363 96 18 2,477 -42 666 624 172 161 333 3,433
3Q 2011 2,491 103 17 2,611 -40 658 618 172 155 327 3,557
4Q 2011 2,473 95 19 2,586 -44 673 629 173 155 329 3,544
1Q 2012 2,681 92 19 2,791 -44 670 626 187 167 354 3,772
2Q 2012 2,253 97 25 2,375 -42 663 621 219 157 376 3,372
3Q 2012 2,340 98 25 2,463 -13 647 634 265 126 391 3,488
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -6.1% -4.9% 46.2% -5.7% -68.3% -1.7% 2.6% 54.0% -18.9% 19.5% -1.9%
Sep-11 2,594 98 18 2,710 -39 659 620 173 159 332 3,662
Oct-11 2,629 100 19 2,748 -39 673 634 185 155 340 3,722
Nov-11 2,600 101 16 2,717 -36 673 637 183 146 329 3,683
Dec-11 2,189 83 22 2,294 -58 673 615 152 165 317 3,226
Jan-12 2,679 85 17 2,781 -46 665 619 190 161 351 3,751
Feb-12 2,793 99 20 2,912 -43 676 633 187 169 356 3,901
Mar-12 2,570 91 20 2,681 -42 669 627 184 171 355 3,663
Apr-12 2,222 97 24 2,343 -51 665 614 186 155 341 3,298
May-12 2,225 99 25 2,349 -55 678 623 194 169 363 3,335
Jun-12 2,312 96 26 2,434 -21 647 626 278 146 424 3,484
Jul-12 2,361 93 28 2,482 -15 640 625 281 127 408 3,515
Aug-12 2,341 100 25 2,466 -7 643 636 263 123 386 3,488
Sep-12 2,317 101 23 2,441 -16 657 641 252 127 379 3,461
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -10.7% 3.1% 27.8% -9.9% -59.0% -0.3% 3.4% 45.7% -20.1% 14.2% -5.5%
% of Total2 66.9% 2.9% 0.7% 70.5% -0.5% 19.0% 18.5% 7.3% 3.7% 11.0% 100.0%
United States Canada North America1
East Mid-West S-Cent N-West West Total Land2 Offshore Total Oil Gas Total
2009 71 189 683 109 36 1,086 1,042 44 221 507 800 1,307
2010 112 282 969 131 46 1,540 1,509 32 351 949 942 1,891
2011 133 399 1,132 156 55 1,875 1,843 32 431 1,419 888 2,307
3Q 2011 137 416 1,176 158 59 1,945 1,911 34 443 1,495 894 2,389
4Q 2011 141 442 1,198 170 59 2,010 1,973 38 492 1,624 878 2,502
1Q 2012 137 441 1,187 170 55 1,990 1,948 43 592 1,856 726 2,582
2Q 2012 116 448 1,181 166 59 1,970 1,924 46 172 1,547 595 2,143
3Q 2012 100 444 1,134 172 56 1,905 1,855 51 326 1,746 485 2,231
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -26.5% 6.7% -3.6% 8.8% -5.7% -2.1% -3.0% 49.7% -26.5% 16.8% -45.7% -6.6%
Sep-11 137 441 1,179 159 63 1,978 1,946 32 510 1,581 907 2,488
Oct-11 143 442 1,202 167 62 2,017 1,982 35 508 1,592 933 2,525
Nov-11 140 443 1,204 169 56 2,011 1,975 36 487 1,618 880 2,498
Dec-11 140 441 1,188 173 60 2,003 1,961 42 481 1,663 821 2,484
Jan-12 143 432 1,200 173 55 2,003 1,960 43 577 1,790 790 2,580
Feb-12 139 444 1,179 173 55 1,990 1,949 42 706 1,974 723 2,697
Mar-12 130 447 1,182 165 54 1,979 1,935 43 492 1,804 667 2,471
Apr-12 124 442 1,177 163 55 1,962 1,917 44 158 1,491 629 2,119
May-12 117 452 1,186 166 57 1,977 1,931 46 133 1,511 600 2,110
Jun-12 108 450 1,180 170 64 1,972 1,923 49 227 1,641 558 2,199
Jul-12 108 453 1,150 172 63 1,944 1,894 51 307 1,729 522 2,251
Aug-12 100 443 1,140 173 58 1,913 1,863 50 316 1,742 487 2,229
Sep-12 94 437 1,111 171 47 1,859 1,808 51 355 1,767 447 2,214
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -31.8% -0.9% -5.8% 7.4% -25.3% -6.0% -7.1% 59.2% -30.4% 11.7% -50.7% -11.0%
% of Total3 4.2% 19.7% 50.2% 7.7% 2.1% 84.0% 81.6% 2.3% 16.0% 79.8% 20.2% 100.0%
Geographical Specifications
1. The World: OECD is comprised of countries from three regions: North America (Canada, Mexico, US); Europe (Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic,
Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Slovak
Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK); and Asia-Pacific (Australia, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea). OPEC is comprised of Persian Gulf (Iran,
Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates) and non-Persian Gulf countries (Algeria, Indonesia, Libya, Nigeria, Venezuela). Non-OECD is
comprised of countries from three regions: Former Soviet Union (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kirghizstan, Moldova, Russia,
Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan); Asia (including non-OECD
Oceania); and non-Asia (Africa, Middle East, Latin America, and non-
OECD Europe). 2. United States: East (PADD I) – New England
(Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island,
Vermont); Central Atlantic (Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York,
Pennsylvania, and the District of Columbia) and Lower Atlantic (Florida,
Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia). Mid
-West (PADD II) – Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan,
Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South
Dakota, Tennessee, and Wisconsin. South-Central (PADD III) – Alabama,
Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Mexico and Texas. North-West
(PADD IV) – Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming. West
(PADD V) – Alaska, Arizona, California, Hawaii, Nevada, Oregon,
Washington.
3. Canada: East is comprised of Ontario, Manitoba, Quebec and the
Maritime provinces (New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova
Scotia, and Prince Edward Island). West is comprised of Alberta, British
Columbia, Saskatchewan and the northern territories (NorthWest
Territories, Nunavuut, and Yukon).
Additional Notes
1. Petroleum and oil refer to crude oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs),
whereas crude oil refers to its namesake and field condensates.
Condensates derived from natural gas processing plants are classified as
NGLs. 2. The spot price is for immediate delivery of crude oil or refined
products at a specific location. Spot transactions are generally on a cargo
by cargo basis. In contrast, a futures price is for delivery of a specified
quantity of a commodity at a specified time and place in the future. 3.
Crude oil sold Free-On-Board (FOB) is made available to the buyer at the
loading port at a particular time, with transportation and insurance the
responsibility of the buyer. Crude oil sold Cost-Insurance-Freight (CIF) is
priced at a major destination point, with the seller responsible for the
transportation and insurance to that point. A “Delivered” transaction is
similar to a CIF transaction, except the buyer in the former pays based on the quantity and quality ascertained at the unloading port, whereas in a CIF
transaction, the buyer accepts the quantity and quality as determined at the loading port. 4. Processing gain is the volume of which refinery output is
greater than crude oil inputs. The difference is due to the processing of crude oil products, which in total have a lower specific gravity than crude oil. 5.
Unaccounted for crude oil reconciles the difference between crude input to refineries and the sum of domestic production, net imports/exports, stock
changes and documented losses (in the U.S.). 6. Totals may not equal the sum of their parts in the statistical tables due to rounding.
Crude Stream
Producing
Country or
Region
API
Gravity
(@60° F)
Sulfur
Content
(%)
BBLs/Metric
Tonne
Tapis Blend Malaysia 44 0.1 7.910
Ekofisk Blend Norway 43 0.2 7.773
WTI Texas 40 0.3 7.640
GCS Gulf of Mexico 40 0.3 7.640
Oklahoma Sweet Oklahoma 40 0.3 7.640
Kansas Sweet Kansas 40 0.4 7.640
Wyoming Sweet Wyoming 40 0.2 7.640
ELS Alberta 40 0.5 7.640
Brent Blend United kingdom 38 0.8 7.551
Bonny Light Nigeria 37 0.1 7.506
Oman Blend Oman 36 0.8 7.462
Arabian Light Saudi Arabia 34 1.8 7.373
Minas Indonesia 34 0.1 7.373
Isthmus Mexico 34 1.5 7.373
Michigan Sour Michigan 34 1.7 7.373
WTS Texas 33 1.7 7.328
Urals Russia 32 1.7 7.284
Tia Juana Light Venezuela 32 1.2 7.284
Dubai U.A.E. 31 1.7 7.239
Lost Hills California 30 0.6 7.194
Cano Limon Colombia 28 0.6 7.105
Arabian Heavy Saudi Arabia 27 2.8 7.061
ANS Alaska 27 1.1 7.061
Oriente Ecuador 25 1.4 6.971
Hardisty Heavy Alberta 25 2.1 6.971
Maya Mexico 22 3.3 6.838
Kern River California 13 1.0 6.436
Crude Oil Qualities
For more information, please contact Dinara Millington at [email protected]. Canadian Energy Research Institute 150, 3512 – 33 Street NW Calgary, AB T2L 2A6
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