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April 2012
CERI Commodity Report — Crude Oil
Relevant • Independent • Objective
CERI Commodity Report – Crude Oil Editor-in-Chief: Dinara Millington ([email protected]) About CERI The Canadian Energy Research Institute is an independent, not-for-profit research establishment created through a partnership of industry, academia, and government in 1975. Our mission is to provide relevant, independent, objective economic research in energy and related environmental issues. We strive to build bridges between scholarship and policy, combining the insights of scientific research, economic analysis, and practical experience. In doing so, we broaden the knowledge of young researchers in areas related to energy, the economy, and the environment while honing their expertise in a range of analytical techniques. For more information about CERI, please visit our website at www.ceri.ca.
replacement based on the presumption that DDT would cause more deaths and would harm more lives than its alternative. Moreover, DDT has been shown to be effective in controlling the transmission of malaria by killing mosquitoes that carry the parasite, and it could be argued that the suffering of millions of people from malaria could have been prevented. Regardless of the side taken on environmental movements, the controversy surrounding Silent Spring shows the difficulties in being aware about a potential impact, and identifying the most effective way to balance problems brought on by development of an industry, or product, versus the problems that arise should one discontinue use altogether. Oil sands exploitation is within such a realm of controversy because the pace of development has increased in the past few years. As more projects come online the impacts of those projects intensify; hence, there has been concern over the legacy such development will bring. In oil sands exploration the environmental concerns of note may be classed as greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs), land use, water use and tailings pond toxicity. This article will address GHGs emissions in more detail. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Greenhouse gas emissions from oil sands production and upgrading are often talked about, especially in relation to climate change and Canada’s emission reduction goals. It is well established that anthropogenic influences (i.e., human activities) are correlated with the warming trend in global climate. However, plans to reduce GHGs, or even to craft resilient adoptive measures, flounder due to disagreement between countries on appropriate mitigation techniques. Figure 1 below shows the emissions projection from CERI Study 126.3 While uncertainties make long-term projections difficult, it is not unreasonable to assume that within a generation, emissions from the oil sands may reside within the 100-200 Mt/yr range. Compared with the 2010 world emissions of approximately 33,000 Mt4 the future amount of oil sands emissions seems
S.O.S. – “Silent” Oil Sands By Zoey Walden Introduction This issue primarily addresses the implications of the precautionary principle. The premise is that if the effects are not known, and there may be irreversible damage to the environment, then it is better to err on the side of caution (i.e., no development). This precautionary approach has been used as justification by environmental groups, as well as within larger bodies such as the European Union to delay major infrastructure projects until the effects can be known. Since the effects may take decades to become apparent it is not prudent to halt all production until everything can be known. Background When Rachel Carson released Silent Spring1 in 1962 it became an oft quoted piece on the perils of inaction towards environmental degradation. This book, which was largely centered on the use of synthetic pesticides, succeeded in bringing environmental awareness to an unprecedented share of American people and was considered instrumental in the eventual abandonment of DDT2 as a pesticide. Consequently, it has often been credited with spurring the contemporary environmental movement. However, while Silent Spring did point out inadequacies in monitoring, and its concerns about the adverse effects of synthetic fertilizers were not completed unwarranted – observation did show thinning of bird shell eggs that was attributable to DDT – the risks to humans could still have been imaginary. Therefore, there was ambiguity over the effectiveness of spending billions of dollars to remove DDT and finding a
CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil
Page 2
miniscule, although Canada’s per capita GHG emissions are more than double the world average. Figure 1: GHG Emissions from Oil Sands Activity (2008-2035)
Source: CERI In a scenario where oil sands emissions are to be reduced substantially, wide proliferation of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technologies in conjunction with other piloted technologies such as solvent/steam injections and electric heating could play important roles but entail abatement costs exceeding one hundred dollars per Mt abated. A “tough-on-oil-sands” approach that requires substantial abatement could render all new projects uneconomical unless subsidized. This would eliminate oil royalty revenues to the Alberta government, which could have been invested into long-term socially beneficial projects such as hospitals and roads, and could deprive the more economically challenged northern regions of employment opportunities. If protecting people from adverse change is the goal then the loss of government revenue streams and oil sands employment may affect the quality of life more substantially then reducing/eliminating 100-200 Mt/yr of future GHG emissions. Beyond the difference in magnitude of oil sands and global emissions one also has to consider how emissions compare to the economic output of an industry. Figure 2 shows emission intensity as a function of GDP in the year 2006. Oil and gas extraction has an intensity of 1.25 kt CO2e/2006 (106) dollars GDP with pesticide and fertilizer manufacturing topping the list at 10.47 CO2e/2006 (106) dollars GDP. This disparity suggests that Canada could lower the GHG intensity of its own economy by specializing in oil extraction and importing fertilizers thereby moving emissions to other countries. While this
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would allow Canada to appear to be meeting emission goals it would do nothing to address the actual associated problems of climate change; yet, as ludicrous as the above sounds shuffling is a common practice in order to meet emission targets and could be the major consequence of shutting down an industry in one country. In any case, coal-powered generation and transportation emit far more GHGs globally than the oil sands ever will. Figure 2: Emission Intensity of Economic Sectors in Canada (Kt CO2eq/2006 106 dollars GDP)
Source: CERI, Statistics Canada Precaution in the Oil Sands Environmentalists believe in the intrinsic value of ecosystem components and the need for protectionism for future generations. Silent Spring was important in that it did draw awareness to the fact doing nothing may have severe repercussions and there should be implementation of measures to prevent adverse health and environmental impacts even if there is a lack of full scientific certainty. Unfortunately, the precautionary approach, which is based largely on proven or hypothetical risks, tends to focus on avoiding one thing, be it DDT or oil sands development, and paints contrasting scenarios where that one thing shall exist or not. In the case of oil sands emissions there have been calls to shut down the oil sands because its increasing emissions are an affront to Canada’s emission goals. Interestingly, there is no holistic examination of the oil sands contribution to society and scenarios which allow for emission improvements for society as a whole. In general there has been fragmented public decision-making about potential hazards in the presence of uncertainty with decisions on a case-by-case basis
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Relevant • Independent • Objective
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without examination of the synergistic effects of multiple activities. The fact that environmental impacts are rarely limited to a single industry and that mitigation strategies may involve cross-industry cooperation rarely enters into the discussion. In reality, if the goal is to protect human health, or improve quality of living, or protect a certain amount of biodiversity, most of the solutions will also be integrated. The Canadian Environmental Protection Act (1999) recognizes to a degree the integrated nature of the environmental consequences of economic development and has enshrined the precautionary principle in its mandate. Furthermore, the University of Lethbridge argues that the goal of risk management in conjunction with the precautionary principle should be to undertake “scientifically sound, cost-effective integrated actions that reduce risks while taking into account [various considerations]”5 in order to best manage the uncertainty of complex situations. However, while this principle looks wonderful on paper there is minimal definition on what constitutes a threat or who is responsible for cost-effective measures to prevent that
threat. More work is needed to define these integrated paradigms, to quantify repercussions and to portray the trade-offs in a realistic way. Looking for the middle ground and recognizing the integrated nature of environmental problems – and environmental solutions – may address environmental concerns while avoiding a costly shut-down of an industry based on overly simplistic narrow arguments. This would involve cross-sector/stakeholder discussions surrounding how to address the issue of cumulative impacts without focusing on a solely sectored or industrial approach. Endnotes 1Carson, Rachel. Silent Spring. Fawcett Publications: New York, 1962. 2Dichlorophenyltrichloroethane 3Accessible at http://www.ceri.ca 4Steep Increase in Global CO2 Emissions Despite Reductions by Industrialized Countries with Binding Kyoto Targets. September 21st 2011. Science Daily. Accessed May 9th 2012 at http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/09/110921074750.htm 5Definition of the Precautionary Principle. Accessed May 10th 2012 from http://www.chamber.ca/images/uploads/Proposed_ resolutions/2011/08-Definition.pdf
CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil
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Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 5
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CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil
Page 6
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CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil
Page 8
World Supply and Demand Balance (MMbpd)
OPEC Crude Oil Production (MMbpd)
2009 2010 2011 2012 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12
World Demand 85.6 88.4 89.2 90.0 86.9 87.6 89.2 89.9 89.2 88.0 89.7 89.9 89.5 88.6 90.7 91.1
OECD 45.6 46.2 45.6 45.2 46.0 45.3 46.7 46.7 46.3 44.5 45.9 45.8 45.5 43.9 45.6 45.6
non-OECD 39.9 42.2 43.5 44.8 40.9 42.3 42.5 43.1 42.8 43.4 43.7 44.2 43.9 44.7 45.0 45.5
World Supply 85.5 87.2 88.3 90.2 86.5 86.8 87.4 88.1 88.3 87.3 88.2 89.4 90.7 89.8 90.1 90.7
Non-OPEC 51.5 52.6 52.7 53.3 52.1 52.5 52.5 53.1 52.7 52.3 52.6 53.3 53.3 52.8 53.3 53.9
OPEC NGLs 4.9 5.3 5.8 6.4 5.2 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.2 6.2 6.5 6.5
OPEC Crude 26.7 26.9 27.2 28.0 29.2 29.1 29.5 29.4 29.9 29.3 29.8 30.2 31.2 30.8 30.3 30.3
Supply - Demand1 -0.1 -1.2 -0.9 0.2 -0.3 -0.7 -1.7 -1.7 -0.9 -0.5 -1.4 -0.5 1.1 1.3 -0.6 -1.0
OECD
Stocks (MMbbls) 2664 2682 2762 2742 2664 2631 2676 2665 2600 2652 2709 2681
Days Cover 58 59 59 59 58 59 58 58 57 60 59 59
Sustainable
Capacity Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12
Saudi Arabia 10.85 10.00 10.00 10.00 1.95 1.95 1.95
Iran 4.00 3.35 3.30 3.30 0.01 -0.04 -0.04
UAE 2.85 2.59 2.65 2.67 0.37 0.43 0.45
Kuwait 2.65 2.70 2.72 2.74 0.48 0.50 0.52
Qatar 0.90 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.02 0.02 0.02
Nigeria 2.60 2.10 2.05 2.15 0.43 0.38 0.48
Libya 1.75 1.29 1.35 1.40 -0.18 -0.12 -0.07
Algeria 1.43 1.14 1.14 1.14 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06
Ecuador 0.49 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.05 0.05 0.05
OPEC-11 32.12 28.61 28.61 28.82 1.30 1.30 1.51
Iraq1 2.50 2.62 2.83 3.03
Total OPEC 34.62 31.23 31.44 31.85
Production Over (+)/Under (-) Target
Relevant • Independent • Objective
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Data Appendix
CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil
Page 10
A1: Historic Light Sweet Crude Futures Prices ($US per barrel)
A2: Historic Crude Product Futures Prices (¢US per gallon)
Notes (Tables A1 and A2): Prices are listed by contract month. Close: final contract close on the last day of trading. Last 3 Day Average Close: simple average con-
tract close on last three days of trading. Average When Near Month: simple average closing price on trading days when contract was near month. 12-Month Strip
Average: simple average of daily near 12-month contract closing prices in a given contract month. Spread: difference between one-month and two-month forward
prices in a given period. Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).
NYMEX Light Sweet Crude
Last 3 Day Avg. When 12-Month Spread
Close Average Near Mo. Strip Avg. (1-2 Mo.)
2009 58.61 58.58 55.69 63.97 -1.78
2010 77.20 77.37 78.28 81.19 -0.91
2011 94.11 93.62 94.15 96.21 -0.69
1Q 2011 90.75 89.32 88.54 92.18 -1.40
2Q 2011 104.63 103.29 104.65 106.69 -0.75
3Q 2011 91.01 91.57 94.86 96.36 -0.45
4Q 2011 90.07 90.29 88.55 89.59 -0.14
1Q 2012 100.51 99.50 99.42 100.76 -0.23
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 10.8% 11.4% 12.3% 9.3%
May-11 111.45 108.91 107.66 109.49 -0.55
Jun-11 98.44 98.48 105.16 106.76 -0.51
Jul-11 93.26 93.74 98.82 100.68 -0.52
Aug-11 97.50 96.89 95.25 96.21 -0.49
Sep-11 82.26 84.07 90.52 92.20 -0.34
Oct-11 86.89 86.85 87.36 88.74 -0.23
Nov-11 85.30 86.58 83.00 84.21 -0.24
Dec-11 98.01 97.45 95.29 95.84 0.04
Jan-12 97.22 94.88 98.12 99.19 -0.16
Feb-12 98.46 99.81 100.45 101.62 -0.16
Mar-12 105.84 103.80 99.70 101.48 -0.37
Apr-12 105.61 106.92 106.88 108.69 -0.48
May-12 102.27 103.05 103.99 105.84 -0.50
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -8.2% -5.4% -3.4% -3.3%
NYMEX Unleaded Gasoline NYMEX Heating Oil
Last 3 Day Avg. When 12-Month Spread Last 3 Day Avg. When 12-Month Spread
Close Average Near Mo. Strip Avg. (1-2 Mo.) Close Average Near Mo. Strip Avg. (1-2 Mo.)
2009 165.0 164.0 160.6 166.3 -0.6 162.6 161.4 161.8 175.0 -2.3
2010 210.3 209.5 208.8 203.7 -0.4 210.7 210.2 210.3 220.1 -1.8
2011 286.8 284.4 280.2 268.9 2.1 296.5 294.6 292.1 298.6 -0.9
1Q 2011 255.8 252.8 245.1 248.7 -5.0 273.9 270.9 262.5 268.5 -0.7
2Q 2011 324.1 320.2 312.0 298.0 2.8 313.4 310.3 307.2 313.3 -1.3
3Q 2011 305.9 302.7 297.3 273.5 7.7 303.6 301.3 300.2 309.1 -1.2
4Q 2011 261.2 262.1 266.3 255.3 2.9 295.3 296.0 298.5 303.5 -0.4
1Q 2012 287.0 287.8 280.2 283.9 -5.6 305.6 306.8 304.7 307.9 -4.9
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 12.2% 13.9% 14.3% 14.1% 11.6% 13.3% 16.1% 14.6%
May-11 346.5 343.8 326.8 312.4 3.2 325.6 324.0 320.6 329.8 -1.4
Jun-11 315.0 309.7 309.6 291.0 5.7 305.6 301.0 296.4 296.5 -1.2
Jul-11 303.2 297.7 295.1 273.7 4.2 293.3 289.3 297.7 307.4 -1.5
Aug-11 311.3 312.4 309.9 284.1 5.0 309.6 309.5 307.7 316.8 -1.2
Sep-11 303.2 297.8 287.0 262.8 13.9 307.8 305.2 295.1 302.9 -0.9
Oct-11 262.6 263.2 272.5 259.1 4.0 279.5 281.0 293.4 300.6 -0.8
Nov-11 264.3 268.9 268.1 254.1 4.5 304.3 306.7 295.9 299.2 0.2
Dec-11 256.8 254.2 258.3 252.6 0.3 302.1 300.4 306.3 310.6 -0.4
Jan-12 268.0 267.0 259.8 263.8 -0.4 291.8 291.0 290.2 295.6 -0.9
Feb-12 288.7 289.5 279.6 282.8 -0.6 306.3 306.2 304.6 306.6 0.7
Mar-12 304.2 307.0 301.0 305.1 -15.8 318.8 323.3 319.4 321.4 -14.6
Apr-12 339.0 339.6 334.3 319.8 1.4 316.8 317.8 322.7 330.4 -1.0
May-12 318.4 319.1 325.4 304.6 6.0 318.3 318.6 315.6 322.4 -0.5
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -8.1% -7.2% -0.4% -2.5% -2.2% -1.7% -1.6% -2.2%
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 11
A3: World Crude Oil Contract Prices (FOB, $US per barrel)
A4: North American Posted Crude Prices (FOB, $US per barrel)
Notes: 1. ANS is Delivered price on US West Coast. 2. Edmonton Light Sweet. 3. Hardisty Heavy. Posted prices are based on price at the end of each month. Sources:
Oil & Gas Journal; Natural Resources Canada.
Notes: 1. Urals is Delivered price at Mediterranean. Contract prices are based on prices at the end of each month. Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.
Saudi U.A.E. Oman U.K. Norway Russia Venez. Kuwait Ecuador Mexico Nigeria Indon.
Arab Lgt Dubai Oman Brent Ekofisk Urals1 T.J. Light Blend Oriente Isthmus Bonny Lgt Minas
2009 72.41 73.86 74.05 73.63 74.44 72.58 72.99 73.22 67.42 72.88 75.44 77.94
2010 78.28 78.54 78.77 80.17 80.78 78.12 77.86 76.95 72.56 77.75 81.53 83.05
2011 107.94 106.21 106.63 111.11 112.67 108.85 105.01 105.65 100.89 105.40 113.53 114.59
1Q 2011 103.46 101.94 102.22 106.13 107.57 102.99 98.91 100.93 94.70 98.80 108.96 107.80
2Q 2011 111.94 110.17 110.55 116.61 118.46 113.52 110.71 109.38 104.11 110.60 118.73 120.46
3Q 2011 108.05 106.23 106.57 112.37 113.94 110.24 103.33 105.40 101.28 103.21 113.74 116.02
4Q 2011 108.32 106.50 107.18 109.32 110.73 108.65 107.11 106.87 103.48 109.00 112.67 114.07
1Q 2012 118.09 116.17 116.99 118.49 119.92 116.94 112.94 117.04 111.60 114.97 121.14 126.86
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 14.1% 14.0% 14.5% 11.6% 11.5% 13.5% 14.2% 16.0% 17.8% 16.4% 11.2% 17.7%
Mar-11 111.07 109.46 109.70 114.59 116.99 111.47 108.53 108.23 105.99 108.42 119.04 115.58
Apr-11 120.89 118.09 118.52 125.27 126.67 121.05 119.72 117.61 115.04 119.61 127.49 129.54
May-11 107.58 106.06 106.75 112.59 114.73 110.10 107.70 105.16 102.01 107.59 114.73 116.79
Jun-11 107.36 106.35 106.39 111.97 113.97 109.40 104.70 105.37 95.27 104.59 113.98 115.05
Jul-11 115.46 111.98 112.22 118.27 120.26 116.91 111.06 111.25 106.63 110.94 120.01 124.25
Aug-11 105.61 103.88 104.24 110.58 112.19 109.20 99.50 103.46 97.09 99.39 112.32 115.32
Sep-11 103.09 102.82 103.26 108.27 109.36 104.62 99.42 101.49 100.12 99.31 108.89 108.49
Oct-11 106.40 104.13 104.96 109.44 111.42 108.10 103.40 104.09 103.69 105.18 113.09 110.01
Nov-11 110.59 108.94 109.30 110.66 111.76 110.54 109.64 109.46 105.75 111.54 114.21 117.85
Dec-11 107.96 106.43 107.28 107.86 109.01 107.31 108.28 107.06 100.99 110.27 110.71 114.35
Jan-12 112.82 109.86 110.91 110.58 112.25 109.91 108.04 112.00 104.11 110.02 113.08 120.41
Feb-12 118.01 116.17 117.15 119.56 121.02 118.50 112.36 116.79 112.44 114.42 122.36 126.31
Mar-12 123.43 122.47 122.92 125.33 126.48 122.41 118.41 122.32 118.26 120.46 127.98 133.85
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 11.1% 11.9% 12.1% 9.4% 8.1% 9.8% 9.1% 13.0% 11.6% 11.1% 7.5% 15.8%
United States Canada Light vs. Heavy
ANS1 Lost Hills Kern R. WTI WTS GCS Okla. Sw. Kans. Sw. Mich. So. Wyo. Sw. ELS2 HH3
2009 60.21 71.86 64.48 69.37 64.02 62.37 69.37 68.31 61.37 63.40 75.00 70.21
2010 72.17 79.71 72.52 76.52 71.52 69.52 76.52 75.42 68.52 71.18 77.52 71.20
2011 102.36 112.50 103.21 92.00 87.38 85.42 92.42 91.69 84.42 87.64 95.04 83.74
1Q 2011 88.20 107.28 98.90 93.17 89.83 87.83 94.83 93.83 86.83 88.87 88.01 76.58
2Q 2011 106.51 115.47 105.97 98.42 93.42 91.42 98.42 97.33 90.42 93.06 103.09 89.74
3Q 2011 108.32 111.47 101.17 83.67 78.50 76.67 83.67 82.67 75.67 79.03 91.81 79.18
4Q 2011 106.40 115.77 106.80 92.75 87.75 85.75 92.75 92.92 84.75 89.61 97.26 89.45
1Q 2012 105.15 119.62 110.80 100.58 95.58 93.58 100.58 98.92 92.58 96.78 92.27 85.60
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 19.2% 11.5% 12.0% 8.0% 6.4% 6.5% 6.1% 5.4% 6.6% 8.9% 4.8% 11.8%
Mar-11 93.11 120.95 112.50 104.50 99.50 97.50 104.50 103.50 96.50 98.44 97.02 84.71
Apr-11 93.11 127.55 117.75 110.50 105.50 103.50 110.50 109.50 102.50 104.43 110.68 94.00
May-11 110.06 113.75 104.45 97.00 92.00 90.00 97.00 96.25 89.00 92.09 100.91 89.98
Jun-11 116.36 105.10 95.70 87.75 82.75 80.75 87.75 86.25 79.75 82.66 97.67 85.23
Jul-11 108.33 111.15 100.65 92.25 87.25 85.25 92.25 91.25 84.25 87.20 95.20 83.66
Aug-11 108.33 113.55 102.20 83.00 78.00 76.00 83.00 82.00 75.00 77.95 88.15 74.47
Sep-11 108.30 109.70 100.65 75.75 70.25 68.75 75.75 74.75 67.75 71.95 92.07 79.42
Oct-11 101.44 122.60 112.60 89.75 84.75 82.75 89.75 88.75 81.75 86.07 92.90 81.86
Nov-11 108.88 116.75 107.00 93.25 88.25 86.25 93.25 95.75 85.25 89.67 101.09 93.36
Dec-11 108.88 107.95 100.80 95.25 90.25 88.25 95.25 94.25 87.25 93.08 97.79 93.14
Jan-12 109.20 111.75 102.80 96.00 91.00 89.00 96.00 95.00 88.00 93.81 96.69 92.13
Feb-12 101.59 126.80 118.20 106.25 101.25 99.25 106.25 105.25 98.25 103.52 94.41 87.50
Mar-12 104.66 120.30 111.40 99.50 94.50 92.50 99.50 96.50 91.50 93.02 85.71 77.16
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 12.4% -0.5% -1.0% -4.8% -5.0% -5.1% -4.8% -6.8% -5.2% -5.5% -11.7% -8.9%
CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil
Page 12
A5: Crude Oil Quality Differentials (FOB, $US per barrel)
A6: Crude Oil spot Prices and Differentials (FOB, $US per barrel)
Notes: 1. OPEC-Reference Basket is average price of seven crude streams: Algeria Saharan Blend, Dubai Fateh, Indonesia Minas, Mexico Isthmus, Nigeria Bonny
Light, Saudi Arabia Light and Venezuela Tia Juana Light. Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.
Notes: 1. Edmonton Light Sweet. 2. Hardisty Heavy. Based on contract prices at the end of each month. Sources: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report: Oil & Gas Jour-nal; Natural Resources Canada.
Light vs. Heavy Sweet vs. Sour
Arab Lt Arab Hv Diff. Isthmus Maya Diff. ELS1 HH2 Diff. GCS WTS Diff.
2009 72.41 70.79 1.62 72.88 67.26 5.61 70.03 65.55 4.47 62.37 64.02 -1.65
2010 78.28 75.91 2.37 77.75 70.09 7.66 75.26 69.13 6.14 69.52 71.52 -2.00
2011 107.94 103.95 3.99 105.40 98.77 6.63 96.69 85.19 11.50 85.42 87.38 -1.96
1Q 2011 103.46 99.34 4.12 98.80 90.24 8.56 89.27 77.67 11.60 87.83 89.83 -2.00
2Q 2011 111.94 106.69 5.25 110.60 102.48 8.12 106.52 92.73 13.79 91.42 93.42 -2.00
3Q 2011 108.05 103.89 4.17 103.21 99.06 4.15 95.90 82.71 13.19 76.67 78.50 -1.83
4Q 2011 108.32 105.89 2.42 109.00 103.31 5.69 95.04 87.41 7.63 85.75 87.75 -2.00
1Q 2012 118.09 116.59 1.49 114.97 105.99 8.98 92.14 85.47 6.66 93.58 95.58 -2.00
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 14.1% 17.4% 16.4% 17.4% 3.2% 10.0% 6.5% 6.4%
Mar-11 111.07 106.72 4.35 108.42 99.11 9.31 99.34 86.74 12.60 97.50 99.50 -2.00
Apr-11 120.89 115.84 5.05 119.61 109.35 10.26 115.57 98.15 17.42 103.50 105.50 -2.00
May-11 107.58 102.33 5.25 107.59 99.82 7.77 104.21 92.93 11.28 90.00 92.00 -2.00
Jun-11 107.36 101.91 5.45 104.59 98.26 6.33 99.92 87.19 12.73 80.75 82.75 -2.00
Jul-11 115.46 111.11 4.35 110.94 104.05 6.89 99.57 87.50 12.08 85.25 87.25 -2.00
Aug-11 105.61 101.46 4.15 99.39 95.89 3.50 95.92 81.03 14.89 76.00 78.00 -2.00
Sep-11 103.09 99.09 4.00 99.31 97.25 2.06 92.03 79.39 12.64 68.75 70.25 -1.50
Oct-11 106.40 102.40 4.00 105.18 99.59 5.59 91.02 80.21 10.81 82.75 84.75 -2.00
Nov-11 110.59 108.67 1.92 111.54 105.99 5.55 98.51 90.98 7.53 86.25 88.25 -2.00
Dec-11 107.96 106.61 1.35 110.27 104.34 5.93 95.56 91.01 4.55 88.25 90.25 -2.00
Jan-12 112.82 111.73 1.09 110.02 105.99 4.03 95.33 90.84 4.49 89.00 91.00 -2.00
Feb-12 118.01 116.21 1.80 114.42 105.99 8.43 94.71 87.78 6.93 99.25 101.25 -2.00
Mar-12 123.43 121.84 1.59 120.46 105.99 14.47 86.27 77.66 8.61 92.50 94.50 -2.00
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 11.1% 14.2% 11.1% 6.9% -13.2% -10.5% -5.1% -5.0%
Spot Prices Differentials
WTI Brent Dubai Urals Basket1 WTI-Brent WTI-Dubai WTI-Urals WTI-Basket
2009 61.93 61.70 61.86 61.00 58.15 -3.09 -3.25 -2.39 0.46
2010 79.48 79.51 78.13 78.17 75.98 -2.31 -0.93 -0.97 1.22
2011 95.04 111.21 106.33 109.61 105.85 -17.10 -12.22 -15.50 -11.74
1Q 2011 94.49 105.43 100.90 102.67 101.27 -14.68 -10.15 -11.92 -10.52
2Q 2011 102.28 116.99 110.67 114.16 112.58 -12.36 -6.04 -9.53 -7.95
3Q 2011 89.51 113.33 107.07 112.58 108.86 -22.32 -16.06 -21.57 -17.85
4Q 2011 93.99 109.35 106.51 109.21 107.85 -19.28 -16.44 -19.14 -17.78
1Q 2012 102.99 118.55 116.49 117.50 111.68 -18.04 -15.98 -16.99 -11.17
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 9.0% 12.4% 15.5% 14.4% 10.3%
Apr-11 109.89 123.49 116.00 119.38 118.09 -12.04 -4.55 -7.93 -6.64
May-11 101.22 114.55 108.38 110.96 109.94 -16.11 -9.94 -12.52 -11.50
Jun-11 96.21 114.04 107.77 111.67 109.04 -20.78 -14.51 -18.41 -15.78
Jul-11 97.26 116.88 109.99 114.90 111.62 -19.38 -12.49 -17.40 -14.12
Aug-11 86.30 110.37 105.02 109.17 106.32 -28.11 -22.76 -26.91 -24.06
Sep-11 85.55 113.12 106.30 110.38 107.61 -26.23 -19.41 -23.49 -20.72
Oct-11 86.43 109.41 104.04 108.68 107.61 -24.11 -18.74 -23.38 -22.31
Nov-11 97.14 110.69 108.84 110.93 106.29 -12.68 -10.83 -12.92 -8.28
Dec-11 98.56 107.80 106.53 107.89 109.72 -10.58 -9.31 -10.67 -12.50
Jan-12 100.28 110.52 109.91 109.68 107.34 -12.06 -11.45 -11.22 -8.88
Feb-12 102.21 119.53 116.11 119.32 110.50 -13.69 -10.27 -13.48 -4.66
Mar-12 106.15 125.28 122.53 123.24 116.96 -19.67 -16.92 -17.63 -11.35
Apr-12 103.29 119.57 117.28 117.46 121.60 -17.30 -15.01 -15.19 -19.33
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -6.0% -3.2% 1.1% -1.6% 3.0%
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 13
A7: World Petroleum Product Spot Prices ($US per barrel)
A8: Product Spot Prices in Selected American Cities (¢US per gallon)
Notes: 1. Reformulated regular unleaded gasoline. Spot prices are based on average daily prices over a specific timeframe. Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status
Report.
Notes: 1. Regular unleaded gasoline. 2. High Sulfur (3.0%) Residual Fuel Oil. 3. High Sulfur (3.5%) Residual Fuel Oil. Spot prices are based on average daily prices over a specific timeframe. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.
NY Harbor, Barges Rotterdam, Barges Singapore, Cargoes
Gasoline1 No. 2 H.O. Resid.2 Gasoline1 Gasoil Resid.3 Gasoline1 Gasoil Resid.3
2008 103.11 120.22 73.64 99.25 122.69 72.42 103.27 120.25 79.12
2009 69.52 55.92 55.23 70.06 69.38 52.93 70.37 69.15 58.12
2010 87.01 69.70 70.63 87.32 89.75 67.99 88.48 80.83 72.88
1Q 2011 110.64 118.14 89.04 111.05 117.69 87.93 113.49 119.30 93.13
2Q 2011 127.98 98.22 101.29 126.14 128.62 96.82 124.95 110.65 102.69
3Q 2011 120.19 98.44 98.38 120.98 126.18 98.16 124.47 114.90 102.79
4Q 2011 108.70 98.28 98.57 110.67 127.09 96.93 116.13 116.34 104.26
1Q 2012 125.75 108.03 109.28 125.59 133.17 105.93 130.80 127.11 113.89
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 13.7% -8.6% 22.7% 13.1% 13.2% 20.5% 15.3% 6.5% 22.3%
Apr-11 133.13 134.20 104.44 132.26 135.69 101.04 129.97 138.01 106.24
May-11 126.78 124.00 97.28 128.39 124.04 96.36 124.82 126.61 100.87
Jun-11 118.83 124.51 101.13 121.77 125.11 98.09 120.33 125.95 102.66
Jul-11 126.96 128.83 102.08 127.11 128.50 101.49 126.15 128.46 105.16
Aug-11 119.58 123.56 97.75 121.78 124.17 98.06 122.85 122.99 102.41
Sep-11 116.67 122.63 98.20 120.72 123.86 98.48 124.36 122.71 102.56
Oct-11 116.62 123.95 98.09 113.48 124.68 97.16 121.96 121.32 102.82
Nov-11 106.95 100.29 100.97 109.85 131.07 98.61 112.80 120.19 106.61
Dec-11 106.58 95.38 96.76 108.90 124.43 94.84 113.90 115.42 103.27
Jan-12 116.29 102.88 102.63 115.85 127.81 102.93 124.01 125.07 111.68
Feb-12 125.73 109.26 109.94 125.47 134.30 105.98 130.86 126.76 113.75
Mar-12 134.38 111.58 114.72 134.99 137.21 108.74 136.60 129.20 115.93
Apr-12 134.43 108.55 114.72 136.35 134.62 106.00 135.06 126.52 113.53
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 1.0% -19.1% 9.8% 3.1% -0.8% 4.9% 3.9% -8.3% 6.9%
NY Harbor US Gulf Los Angeles
Gasoline1 No. 2 H.O. Distill. Gasoline1 Jet Fuel Distill. Gasoline1 Distill.
2009 196.58 189.77 193.59 192.64 192.32 191.28 206.52 195.21
2010 209.23 212.48 219.41 205.11 214.61 215.59 220.97 220.41
2011 279.50 294.63 301.44 274.58 299.61 296.95 289.49 304.88
1Q 2011 261.47 280.27 287.10 258.67 286.10 282.50 278.60 290.03
2Q 2011 301.23 303.83 312.00 298.30 313.27 308.23 309.63 319.83
3Q 2011 287.47 297.83 305.33 282.27 302.90 300.93 290.13 303.27
4Q 2011 267.83 296.60 301.33 259.07 296.17 296.13 279.60 306.37
1Q 2012 301.10 315.57 320.17 298.17 318.33 316.07 320.17 323.80
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 15.2% 12.6% 11.5% 15.3% 11.3% 11.9% 14.9% 11.6%
Apr-11 317.80 319.60 327.10 313.60 326.70 323.10 337.30 338.70
May-11 302.40 295.20 303.50 302.40 308.50 300.10 305.50 313.40
Jun-11 283.50 296.70 305.40 278.90 304.60 301.50 286.10 307.40
Jul-11 302.10 306.80 317.00 297.50 313.10 311.70 294.80 311.60
Aug-11 283.50 294.60 301.00 280.10 300.80 297.40 283.90 297.10
Sep-11 276.80 292.10 298.00 269.20 294.80 293.70 291.70 301.10
Oct-11 277.20 295.30 300.80 268.90 296.60 296.00 294.90 308.90
Nov-11 262.90 305.40 309.50 253.90 304.60 304.60 273.70 319.20
Dec-11 263.40 289.10 293.70 254.40 287.30 287.80 270.20 291.00
Jan-12 282.20 305.40 308.00 277.70 308.70 303.40 292.00 308.80
Feb-12 304.40 319.60 322.30 299.90 320.70 317.80 330.20 324.20
Mar-12 316.70 321.70 330.20 316.90 325.60 327.00 338.30 338.40
Apr-12 320.60 315.00 324.20 310.10 322.60 321.70 325.00 325.20
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 0.9% -1.4% -0.9% -1.1% -1.3% -0.4% -3.6% -4.0%
CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil
Page 14
B1: World Petroleum Supply and Demand Balance (million barrels per day)
Notes: 1. Totals for OECD and non-OECD supply include net refining gains; specific regions/groupings within each do not. 2. OPEC demand is an estimate based on
historical annual data. 3. Balance for World equals global stockbuilds (+) and stockdraws (-) for crude oil and petroleum products and miscellaneous gains and
losses. Regional surpluses (+) and deficits (-) are balanced through net-imports and stock changes in the short-term, and net-imports in the longer term. Supply
includes crude oil, condensates, NGLs, oil from non-conventional sources and processing gains. Demand is for petroleum products.
Source: IEA Oil Market Report.
OECD Non-OECD OPEC World
N. A. Europe Asia-Pac Total1 Asia Non-Asia FSU Total1 P. Gulf Non-Gulf Total2 Total3
Demand
2007 25.5 15.4 8.4 49.3 16.1 10.8 4.2 31.1 4.2 2.5 6.7 87.1
2008 24.2 15.4 8.1 47.6 16.2 11.6 4.2 32.0 4.3 2.6 7.0 86.6
2009 23.3 14.7 7.7 45.6 17.0 11.4 4.2 32.6 4.5 2.7 7.3 85.6
2010 23.8 14.6 7.8 46.2 18.3 11.9 4.4 34.6 4.7 2.8 7.5 88.4
2011 23.5 14.3 7.9 45.6 18.9 12.1 4.7 35.7 4.9 2.9 7.9 89.2
1Q 2010 23.4 14.3 8.2 46.0 17.8 11.2 4.4 33.4 4.7 2.8 7.5 86.9
2Q 2010 23.7 14.3 7.3 45.3 18.5 12.0 4.3 34.8 4.7 2.8 7.5 87.6
3Q 2010 24.1 14.9 7.6 46.7 17.9 12.6 4.5 35.0 4.7 2.8 7.5 89.2
4Q 2010 23.8 14.8 8.1 46.7 19.1 12.0 4.6 35.7 4.7 2.8 7.5 89.9
1Q 2011 23.8 14.2 8.3 46.3 19.0 11.4 4.5 34.9 4.9 2.9 7.9 89.2
2Q 2011 23.3 14.1 7.1 44.5 18.9 12.0 4.6 35.5 4.9 2.9 7.9 88.0
3Q 2011 23.6 14.7 7.7 45.9 18.4 12.6 4.8 35.8 4.9 2.9 7.9 89.7
4Q 2011 23.4 14.1 8.3 45.8 19.3 12.1 4.8 36.2 4.9 2.9 7.9 89.9
1Q 2012 23.2 13.7 8.7 45.5 19.4 11.6 4.7 35.7 5.1 3.0 8.2 89.5
Supply
2007 13.8 5.0 0.6 20.7 7.4 8.1 12.8 29.1 23.7 10.7 34.9 85.8
2008 13.3 4.8 0.6 19.9 7.5 8.1 12.8 29.2 24.5 10.4 35.6 86.7
2009 13.6 4.5 0.6 20.0 7.5 8.3 13.3 29.9 23.0 10.5 34.1 85.5
2010 14.1 4.1 0.6 20.0 7.8 8.4 13.5 30.6 23.3 10.7 34.6 87.2
2011 14.5 3.8 0.5 20.1 7.7 8.5 13.6 30.8 25.5 9.5 35.6 88.3
1Q 2010 14.0 4.5 0.6 20.3 7.7 8.3 13.5 30.3 23.1 10.2 34.1 86.5
2Q 2010 13.9 4.1 0.6 19.9 7.8 8.4 13.5 30.6 23.1 10.2 34.0 86.8
3Q 2010 14.0 3.8 0.6 19.6 7.8 8.4 13.5 30.6 23.6 10.5 34.6 87.4
4Q 2010 14.4 4.2 0.6 20.4 7.9 8.5 13.6 30.9 23.9 10.8 35.2 88.1
1Q 2011 14.3 4.1 0.5 20.2 7.8 8.6 13.6 30.9 24.8 10.5 35.8 88.2
2Q 2011 14.3 3.8 0.5 19.8 7.7 8.5 13.6 30.7 25.4 9.4 35.2 87.4
3Q 2011 14.5 3.6 0.5 19.8 7.6 8.6 13.5 30.6 26.0 9.1 35.7 88.2
4Q 2011 15.2 3.8 0.5 20.7 7.6 8.5 13.6 30.7 26.1 9.4 36.1 89.4
1Q 2012 15.3 3.9 0.5 21.0 7.8 8.2 13.8 30.8 26.4 10.3 37.4 90.6
Balance
2007 -11.7 -10.4 -7.8 -28.6 -8.7 -2.7 8.6 -2.0 19.5 8.3 28.2 -1.3
2008 -10.9 -10.6 -7.5 -27.7 -8.7 -3.5 8.6 -2.8 20.2 7.9 28.7 0.1
2009 -9.7 -10.2 -7.1 -25.6 -9.5 -3.1 9.1 -2.7 18.5 7.8 26.8 -0.1
2010 -9.7 -10.5 -7.2 -26.2 -10.5 -3.5 9.1 -4.0 18.6 7.9 27.1 -1.2
2011 -9.0 -10.5 -7.4 -25.5 -11.2 -3.6 8.9 -5.0 20.6 6.7 27.7 -0.9
1Q 2010 -9.4 -9.8 -7.6 -25.7 -10.1 -2.9 9.1 -3.0 18.3 7.5 26.5 -0.4
2Q 2010 -9.8 -10.2 -6.7 -25.4 -10.7 -3.6 9.2 -4.1 18.4 7.4 26.5 -0.8
3Q 2010 -10.1 -11.1 -7.0 -27.1 -10.1 -4.2 9.0 -4.4 18.8 7.8 27.1 -1.8
4Q 2010 -9.4 -10.6 -7.5 -26.3 -11.2 -3.5 9.0 -4.7 19.2 8.0 27.6 -1.8
1Q 2011 -9.5 -10.1 -7.8 -26.1 -11.2 -2.8 9.1 -4.0 19.9 7.6 27.9 -1.0
2Q 2011 -9.0 -10.3 -6.6 -24.7 -11.2 -3.5 9.0 -4.8 20.5 6.5 27.4 -0.6
3Q 2011 -9.1 -11.1 -7.2 -26.1 -10.8 -4.0 8.7 -5.2 21.1 6.2 27.9 -1.5
4Q 2011 -8.2 -10.3 -7.8 -25.1 -11.7 -3.6 8.8 -5.6 21.2 6.5 28.3 -0.5
1Q 2012 -7.9 -9.8 -8.2 -24.5 -11.6 -3.4 9.1 -4.9 21.3 7.3 29.2 1.1
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 15
B2: World Petroleum Production (million barrels per day)
B3: OECD Commercial Petroleum Stocks (million barrels)
Notes: 1. Production includes crude oil, condensates and NGLs. 2. Reserve-Production ratio is based on latest month production and British Petroleum reserve
estimates. Sources: IEA Oil Market Report and BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
Notes: 1. Product includes only finished petroleum products. 2. Total stocks include NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. All
stocks are closing levels for respective reporting period. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.
OECD Non-OECD OPEC World
N. A. Europe Asia-Pac Total Asia Non-Asia FSU Total P. Gulf Non-Gulf Total Total1
2009 13.60 4.55 0.65 18.81 7.55 8.32 13.28 29.16 23.01 10.49 34.08 82.05
2010 14.09 4.14 0.61 18.84 7.80 8.46 13.55 29.81 23.31 10.71 34.64 83.29
2011 14.54 3.83 0.52 18.89 7.68 8.57 13.58 29.82 25.50 9.54 35.60 84.31
1Q 2011 14.36 4.12 0.52 18.99 7.86 8.60 13.64 30.09 24.79 10.45 35.76 84.84
2Q 2011 14.26 3.81 0.50 18.58 7.65 8.43 13.58 29.66 25.39 9.35 35.22 83.46
3Q 2011 14.55 3.62 0.51 18.68 7.57 8.52 13.54 29.63 25.96 9.12 35.72 84.03
4Q 2011 15.18 3.83 0.54 19.55 7.58 8.53 13.57 29.67 26.14 9.36 36.14 85.36
1Q 2012 15.31 3.87 0.50 19.69 7.74 8.25 13.75 29.74 26.42 10.26 37.37 86.80
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 6.6% -6.1% -3.8% 3.7% -1.5% -4.1% 0.8% -1.2% 6.6% -1.9% 4.5% 2.3%
Apr-11 14.57 4.12 0.51 19.20 7.77 8.30 13.63 29.68 24.87 9.43 34.82 83.70
May-11 13.96 3.73 0.58 18.27 7.68 8.42 13.63 29.73 25.24 9.29 34.99 82.99
Jun-11 14.06 3.68 0.50 18.24 7.67 8.52 13.56 29.76 26.20 9.39 36.00 84.00
Jul-11 14.35 3.84 0.50 18.69 7.62 8.44 13.48 29.54 26.01 9.27 35.88 84.11
Aug-11 14.73 3.56 0.53 18.82 7.59 8.59 13.56 29.73 26.16 9.24 36.02 84.57
Sep-11 14.34 3.63 0.51 18.48 7.55 8.32 13.67 29.54 25.89 8.96 35.50 83.52
Oct-11 14.63 3.93 0.60 19.17 7.64 8.38 13.72 29.75 25.90 9.40 35.98 84.90
Nov-11 15.02 3.84 0.54 19.40 7.63 8.48 13.82 29.92 26.23 9.67 36.55 85.87
Dec-11 15.04 3.85 0.60 19.49 7.76 8.50 13.68 29.95 26.21 9.81 36.72 86.16
Jan-12 15.36 3.89 0.50 19.75 7.74 8.52 13.73 29.99 26.30 10.20 37.13 86.87
Feb-12 15.49 3.91 0.49 19.89 7.77 8.12 13.76 29.66 26.37 10.30 37.41 86.96
Mar-12 15.07 3.81 0.52 19.40 7.71 8.08 13.76 29.54 26.62 10.29 37.62 86.56
Apr-12 14.86 3.74 0.55 19.15 7.74 8.11 13.71 29.56 26.89 10.45 38.08 86.79
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 2.0% -9.2% 7.8% -0.3% -0.4% -2.3% 0.6% -0.4% 8.1% 10.8% 9.4% 3.7%
R/P Ratio2 13.7 10.0 21.0 13.2 13.0 22.3 25.2 21.2 75.6 81.6 75.8 43.7
North America Europe Asia-Pacific OECD
Crude Product Total Crude Product Total Crude Product Total Crude Product1 Total2
2009 470 695 1,309 333 574 972 161 161 383 963 1,431 2,664
2010 471 706 1,327 323 554 947 158 163 390 952 1,422 2,664
2011 464 698 1,313 286 545 898 156 164 390 906 1,407 2,600
1Q 2011 497 653 1,295 323 567 955 158 155 382 979 1,375 2,631
2Q 2011 500 680 1,339 318 546 932 160 171 405 977 1,397 2,676
3Q 2011 467 707 1,342 308 539 911 157 181 412 932 1,427 2,665
4Q 2011 464 698 1,313 286 545 898 156 164 390 906 1,407 2,600
1Q 2012 501 682 1,342 307 544 923 163 151 384 972 1,377 2,649
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 0.8% 4.4% 3.6% -4.9% -3.9% -3.3% 3.1% -2.6% 0.8% -0.7% 0.2% 0.7%
Mar-11 497 653 1,295 323 567 955 158 155 382 979 1,375 2,631
Apr-11 511 649 1,311 314 560 940 167 168 408 991 1,377 2,659
May-11 514 670 1,339 320 556 942 161 170 406 994 1,396 2,687
Jun-11 500 680 1,339 318 546 932 160 171 405 977 1,397 2,676
Jul-11 487 711 1,361 310 548 926 164 177 412 961 1,436 2,698
Aug-11 484 710 1,361 311 553 930 155 181 410 950 1,443 2,700
Sep-11 467 707 1,342 308 539 911 157 181 412 932 1,427 2,665
Oct-11 476 690 1,334 300 535 901 155 181 408 931 1,406 2,643
Nov-11 476 698 1,336 303 537 909 156 179 409 935 1,414 2,654
Dec-11 464 698 1,313 286 545 898 156 164 390 906 1,407 2,600
Jan-12 475 704 1,336 291 560 920 154 164 391 920 1,429 2,646
Feb-12 483 687 1,327 304 548 922 162 153 386 948 1,388 2,635
Mar-12 501 682 1,342 307 544 923 163 151 384 972 1,377 2,649
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 0.8% 4.4% 3.6% -4.9% -3.9% -3.3% 3.1% -2.6% 0.8% -0.7% 0.2% 0.7%
CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil
Page 16
B4: OPEC Crude Oil Production and Targets (million barrels per day)
Notes: 1. Does not include NGLs; OPEC production targets apply to crude oil only. 2. Iraq does not have an official OPEC target. 3. OPEC-10 production targets. 4. As
of latest month. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.
B5: OECD Refinery Activity Crude Input (MMbpd) - Utilization (percent) - Refining Margins ($US/barrel)
Notes: 1. Based on dated Brent being processed in average US Gulf cracking refinery. 2. Based on dated Brent in average Rotterdam cracking refinery. 3. Based on
spot Dubai in average Singapore hydroskimming refinery. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.
Non-Persian Gulf OPEC-11 OPEC-11
Arabia Iran UAE Kuwait Qatar Venez. Nigeria Libya Algeria Angola Ecuador Total1 Target Iraq2
2009 8.16 3.74 2.27 2.28 0.80 2.67 1.82 1.55 1.24 1.73 0.47 26.72 27.75 2.43
2010 8.32 3.70 2.31 2.30 0.74 2.53 2.08 1.55 1.21 1.73 0.47 26.94 27.75 2.36
2011 9.34 3.58 2.50 2.54 0.74 2.50 2.18 0.46 1.18 1.64 0.50 27.15 27.75 2.67
1Q 2011 8.83 3.63 2.48 2.36 0.82 2.54 2.14 1.13 1.27 1.61 0.50 27.31 24.85 2.66
2Q 2011 9.20 3.65 2.48 2.45 0.82 2.56 2.25 0.12 1.26 1.55 0.50 26.82 24.85 2.67
3Q 2011 9.64 3.53 2.53 2.56 0.82 2.42 2.26 0.04 1.28 1.69 0.49 27.26 24.85 2.67
4Q 2011 9.67 3.51 2.54 2.73 0.74 2.40 2.06 0.55 1.16 1.72 0.49 27.56 24.85 2.68
1Q 2012 9.95 3.32 2.61 2.72 0.75 2.46 2.06 1.26 1.16 1.73 0.48 28.49 24.85 2.70
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 12.7% -8.5% 5.2% 15.3% -8.5% -3.1% -3.7% 11.5% -8.7% 7.5% -4.0% 4.3% 1.5%
Apr-11 8.80 3.60 2.51 2.41 0.81 2.52 2.22 0.20 1.28 1.58 0.50 26.42 24.85 2.60
May-11 9.00 3.70 2.42 2.44 0.82 2.49 2.25 0.08 1.24 1.57 0.50 26.51 24.85 2.68
Jun-11 9.80 3.65 2.50 2.49 0.82 2.62 2.28 0.08 1.26 1.49 0.50 27.49 24.85 2.72
Jul-11 9.70 3.53 2.50 2.51 0.82 2.43 2.32 0.06 1.28 1.67 0.49 27.3 24.85 2.65
Aug-11 9.80 3.51 2.53 2.53 0.82 2.51 2.28 0.00 1.28 1.69 0.49 27.43 24.85 2.68
Sep-11 9.40 3.54 2.55 2.65 0.82 2.29 2.18 0.08 1.29 1.70 0.50 27 24.85 2.70
Oct-11 9.45 3.53 2.51 2.65 0.81 2.55 2.02 0.35 1.29 1.72 0.50 27.38 24.85 2.69
Nov-11 9.75 3.55 2.52 2.67 0.82 2.53 2.10 0.55 1.29 1.69 0.50 27.96 24.85 2.68
Dec-11 9.85 3.45 2.58 2.60 0.82 2.50 2.06 0.75 1.29 1.75 0.48 28.13 24.85 2.69
Jan-12 9.85 3.30 2.58 2.75 0.82 2.47 2.04 1.15 1.20 1.70 0.48 28.34 24.85 2.65
Feb-12 10.00 3.35 2.59 2.70 0.75 2.46 2.10 1.29 1.14 1.76 0.48 28.61 24.85 2.62
Mar-12 10.00 3.30 2.65 2.72 0.75 2.44 2.05 1.35 1.14 1.73 0.48 28.61 24.85 2.83
Apr-12 10.00 3.30 2.67 2.74 0.75 2.44 2.15 1.40 1.14 1.75 0.48 28.82 24.85 3.03
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 13.6% -8.3% 6.4% 13.7% -7.4% -3.2% -3.2% 600.0% -10.9% 10.8% -4.0% 9.1% 16.5%
Quotas3 8.05 3.34 2.22 2.22 0.73 1.99 1.67 1.47 1.20 1.52 0.43 24.85
Over/Under4 24.2% -1.2% 20.3% 23.4% 2.7% 22.6% 28.7% -4.8% -5.0% 15.1% 11.6% 16.0%
Persian Gulf
North America Europe Asia-Pacific OECD
Input Util. Margin1 Input Util. Margin2 Input Util. Margin3 Input Util.
2009 17.3 82.1 -1.54 12.2 78.9 1.30 6.4 71.1 -3.23 35.9 78.8
2010 17.7 84.2 -2.10 12.4 81.3 2.28 6.6 73.5 -2.41 36.6 81.1
2011 17.8 84.6 -4.17 12.1 79.7 0.62 6.5 73.0 -1.38 36.4 80.7
1Q 2011 17.2 81.8 -4.83 12.2 79.7 0.62 6.8 76.7 -1.8 36.2 80.1
2Q 2011 17.6 83.7 -3.31 11.9 78.3 0.27 6.2 70.0 -2.0 35.7 79.1
3Q 2011 18.4 87.9 -3.17 12.4 81.3 0.97 6.4 72.1 -0.6 37.3 82.6
4Q 2011 17.9 85.2 -5.38 12.1 79.4 0.62 6.5 73.2 -1.1 36.5 80.9
1Q 2012 17.6 83.7 -1.86 12.0 78.5 1.72 6.8 76.5 -1.7 36.3 80.5
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 2.3% -61.5% -1.5% 176.5% -0.3% -7.1% 0.5%
Mar-11 17.4 83.1 -4.82 11.7 77.0 0.54 6.5 72.4 -1.6 35.6 78.9
Apr-11 17.1 81.7 -4.13 11.6 76.2 -0.13 6.5 72.5 -2.1 35.2 78.0
May-11 17.5 83.3 -1.67 12.0 78.4 1.23 6.0 67.8 -2.0 35.5 78.6
Jun-11 18.1 86.1 -4.12 12.2 80.2 -0.28 6.2 69.7 -1.9 36.5 80.9
Jul-11 18.4 87.7 -1.86 12.4 81.3 0.78 6.4 71.6 -1.2 37.2 82.4
Aug-11 18.5 88.3 -0.96 12.6 82.7 2.53 6.5 73.4 0.4 37.7 83.5
Sep-11 18.4 87.8 -6.70 12.2 79.9 -0.39 6.4 71.5 -1.0 37.0 81.9
Oct-11 17.6 83.9 -3.83 11.9 78.1 1.52 6.2 70.0 0.4 35.7 79.2
Nov-11 18.0 86.0 -6.00 12.1 79.6 0.55 6.6 73.6 -1.6 36.7 81.4
Dec-11 18.0 85.6 -6.30 12.3 80.6 -0.21 6.8 75.8 -2.1 37.0 82.0
Jan-12 17.5 83.4 -1.86 12.1 79.7 2.69 6.9 76.9 0.8 36.5 80.8
Feb-12 17.9 85.1 -1.86 12.2 79.9 0.80 6.9 77.1 -1.3 36.9 81.8
Mar-12 17.3 82.6 -1.86 11.6 76.1 1.68 6.7 75.6 -4.7 35.7 79.0
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -0.6% -61.4% -1.2% 211% 4.5% 201.9% 0.1%
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 17
C1: US Petroleum Supply and Demand Balance (million barrels per day)
Notes: 1. Does not balance because of unaccounted for crude oil. Regional surpluses (+) and deficits (-) are balanced through net-imports/transfers and stock
changes in the short-term, and net-imports/transfers in the longer term. 2. As of most recent month. Supply includes crude oil, condensates, NGLs, oil from non-
conventional sources and processing gains. Demand is for petroleum products. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.
United States1 East Mid-West
Supply Demand Net-Imp. Stk. Chg. Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance
2008 7.71 19.41 11.04 0.20 0.13 5.83 -5.70 1.02 4.97 -3.95
2009 8.91 18.64 9.69 0.16 0.11 5.62 -5.51 1.73 4.71 -2.97
2010 9.48 19.15 9.46 0.05 0.12 5.61 -5.48 2.01 4.86 -2.84
3Q 2010 9.50 19.50 9.85 0.21 0.13 5.56 -5.44 2.06 4.98 -2.92
4Q 2010 9.72 19.26 8.59 -0.69 0.15 5.69 -5.54 2.11 4.95 -2.83
1Q 2011 9.59 19.08 8.71 -0.29 0.13 5.74 -5.61 2.16 4.73 -2.58
2Q 2011 9.80 18.75 8.97 0.41 0.13 5.24 -5.11 2.17 4.72 -2.55
3Q 2011 9.92 18.83 8.29 -0.29 0.14 5.21 -5.07 2.26 4.92 -2.66
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 4.5% -3.4% -15.9% 7.0% -6.3% 9.8% -1.2%
Nov-10 9.70 19.07 8.54 -0.67 0.17 5.55 -5.37 2.13 4.86 -2.72
Dec-10 9.85 19.76 8.54 -1.04 0.15 6.11 -5.96 2.12 5.01 -2.89
Jan-11 9.53 19.12 9.27 0.32 0.13 5.82 -5.69 2.15 4.73 -2.57
Feb-11 9.45 18.87 7.93 -1.07 0.14 5.61 -5.47 2.12 4.77 -2.65
Mar-11 9.78 19.25 8.93 -0.13 0.12 5.79 -5.67 2.19 4.70 -2.51
Apr-11 9.69 18.61 8.69 0.22 0.12 5.37 -5.26 2.14 4.63 -2.49
May-11 9.85 18.36 9.03 0.93 0.14 5.01 -4.87 2.17 4.61 -2.43
Jun-11 9.85 19.28 9.19 0.10 0.13 5.35 -5.22 2.19 4.93 -2.74
Jul-11 9.86 18.56 8.75 0.40 0.14 5.18 -5.04 2.23 4.83 -2.60
Aug-11 10.04 19.15 8.07 -0.62 0.14 5.21 -5.07 2.26 4.97 -2.71
Sep-11 9.86 18.80 8.05 -0.66 0.13 5.24 -5.11 2.29 4.95 -2.67
Oct-11 10.11 18.56 7.89 -0.36 0.13 5.27 -5.13 2.38 4.98 -2.60
Nov-11 10.29 18.73 7.98 0.07 0.15 5.52 -5.37 2.46 4.88 -2.42
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 6.1% -1.8% -6.5% -13.8% -0.5% 15.5% 0.4%
% of Total2 100.0% 100.0% 1.5% 29.5% 23.9% 26.0%
South-Central North-West West Finished Petroleum Products
Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance
2008 4.33 4.90 -0.56 0.65 0.68 -0.03 1.58 3.04 -1.46
2009 4.85 4.82 0.03 0.68 0.65 0.03 1.54 2.83 -1.30
2010 5.13 5.14 0.00 0.74 0.65 0.09 1.47 2.90 -1.43
3Q 2010 5.12 5.28 -0.15 0.75 0.70 0.04 1.44 2.98 -1.55
4Q 2010 5.22 5.13 0.09 0.76 0.64 0.12 1.48 2.85 -1.37
1Q 2011 5.12 5.18 -0.05 0.77 0.66 0.11 1.41 2.77 -1.36
2Q 2011 5.29 5.25 0.03 0.78 0.67 0.11 1.43 2.86 -1.43
3Q 2011 5.36 5.08 0.27 0.80 0.70 0.10 1.37 2.92 -1.55
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 4.5% -3.7% 6.5% -0.5% -4.5% -2.0%
Nov-10 5.17 5.21 -0.05 0.76 0.62 0.14 1.47 2.84 -1.37
Dec-10 5.33 5.15 0.18 0.76 0.65 0.11 1.49 2.84 -1.34
Jan-11 5.18 5.26 -0.08 0.76 0.64 0.12 1.31 2.68 -1.37
Feb-11 4.95 5.02 -0.07 0.76 0.67 0.09 1.48 2.80 -1.32
Mar-11 5.24 5.25 -0.02 0.78 0.67 0.11 1.46 2.84 -1.38
Apr-11 5.21 5.12 0.09 0.77 0.63 0.14 1.46 2.87 -1.40
May-11 5.33 5.27 0.05 0.79 0.66 0.13 1.42 2.82 -1.40
Jun-11 5.32 5.36 -0.04 0.79 0.73 0.06 1.41 2.90 -1.49
Jul-11 5.38 4.93 0.45 0.81 0.73 0.08 1.31 2.89 -1.58
Aug-11 5.47 5.26 0.21 0.81 0.72 0.09 1.38 3.00 -1.62
Sep-11 5.23 5.06 0.17 0.77 0.65 0.12 1.43 2.89 -1.46
Oct-11 5.38 4.90 0.47 0.80 0.64 0.16 1.42 2.77 -1.36
Nov-11 5.41 4.88 0.53 0.83 0.66 0.17 1.44 2.80 -1.36
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 4.7% -6.3% 8.7% 5.3% -1.6% -1.2%
% of Total2 52.6% 26.1% 8.1% 3.5% 14.0% 15.0%
CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil
Page 18
C2: US Petroleum Demand by Product (million barrels per day)
Notes: 1. Total includes other finished petroleum products. 2. Total petroleum demand includes refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons.
Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.
C3: US Petroleum Stocks (million barrels)
Notes: 1. Petroleum stocks include crude oil, finished products, NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. 2. Includes Strategic
Petroleum Reserves. 3. Total includes other finished petroleum products. All stocks are closing levels for respective reporting period. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply
Monthly.
Finished Petroleum Products NGLs Petroleum
Gasoline Jet Fuel Distil. Resid. Total1 Total Total2
2008 8.92 1.46 3.81 0.62 17.11 1.97 19.04
2009 8.98 1.40 3.62 0.50 16.62 2.15 18.73
2010 9.03 1.43 3.81 0.54 16.95 2.18 19.15
3Q 2010 9.27 1.48 3.82 0.52 17.43 2.04 19.50
4Q 2010 8.99 1.40 3.94 0.57 16.93 2.33 19.26
1Q 2011 8.60 1.36 3.94 0.60 16.47 2.55 19.08
2Q 2011 8.86 1.48 3.75 0.52 16.72 2.06 18.75
3Q 2011 8.87 1.48 3.78 0.37 16.77 2.06 18.83
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -4.3% -0.2% -1.0% -28.1% -3.8% 1.2% -3.4%
Nov-10 8.90 1.40 3.88 0.63 16.90 2.21 19.07
Dec-10 8.97 1.38 4.17 0.57 17.07 2.67 19.76
Jan-11 8.41 1.36 3.97 0.62 16.37 2.74 19.12
Feb-11 8.65 1.34 3.87 0.63 16.35 2.52 18.87
Mar-11 8.75 1.39 3.99 0.55 16.69 2.40 19.25
Apr-11 8.76 1.45 3.69 0.60 16.53 2.08 18.61
May-11 8.78 1.43 3.66 0.48 16.43 2.00 18.36
Jun-11 9.05 1.55 3.90 0.47 17.20 2.09 19.28
Jul-11 8.96 1.47 3.45 0.32 16.46 2.03 18.56
Aug-11 8.91 1.56 3.96 0.32 17.11 2.06 19.15
Sep-11 8.75 1.42 3.93 0.48 16.73 2.10 18.80
Oct-11 8.62 1.37 3.94 0.40 16.47 2.20 18.56
Nov-11 8.53 1.43 4.06 0.40 16.41 2.31 18.73
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -4.2% 2.1% 4.6% -36.8% -2.9% 4.7% -1.8%
Petroleum Stocks1 Crude Oil Finished Products
East Mid-West S-Cent N-West West U.S. Total2 Gasoline Jet Fuel Distil. Resid. Total3
2008 182 234 1,148 30 141 1,735 1,026 98 38 146 36 368
2009 192 249 1,164 31 139 1,776 1,052 86 43 165 38 375
2010 173 262 1,182 34 143 1,794 1,059 63 43 164 41 357
3Q 2010 192 270 1,218 33 143 1,857 1,087 70 47 167 40 367
4Q 2010 173 262 1,182 34 143 1,794 1,059 63 43 164 41 357
1Q 2011 163 256 1,174 34 141 1,770 1,089 61 40 149 37 336
2Q 2011 171 264 1,192 34 147 1,808 1,085 56 42 144 37 330
3Q 2011 181 272 1,156 33 140 1,781 1,028 57 46 154 35 335
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -5.9% 0.5% -5.2% -0.4% -2.0% -4.1% -5.4% -18.6% -1.6% -7.8% -13.2% -8.6%
Nov-10 186 261 1,199 34 146 1,826 1,077 66 44 162 41 352
Dec-10 173 262 1,182 34 143 1,794 1,059 63 43 164 41 357
Jan-11 178 262 1,188 35 141 1,803 1,074 69 41 162 39 361
Feb-11 176 259 1,164 35 139 1,773 1,077 68 39 154 35 346
Mar-11 163 256 1,174 34 141 1,770 1,089 61 40 149 37 336
Apr-11 160 257 1,180 35 144 1,776 1,096 55 39 143 39 326
May-11 169 262 1,193 35 146 1,805 1,096 57 41 145 37 331
Jun-11 171 264 1,192 34 147 1,808 1,085 56 42 144 37 330
Jul-11 179 271 1,193 32 145 1,820 1,066 54 44 158 37 345
Aug-11 181 269 1,180 32 138 1,801 1,046 55 43 157 39 340
Sep-11 181 272 1,156 33 140 1,781 1,028 57 46 154 35 335
Oct-11 175 268 1,155 33 139 1,770 1,035 56 46 143 37 323
Nov-11 177 267 1,151 34 142 1,772 1,034 58 42 144 39 328
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -4.5% 2.4% -4.0% -1.0% -2.6% -3.0% -4.0% -10.9% -4.5% -11.1% -3.1% -7.1%
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 19
C4: US Petroleum Net Imports by Source (million barrels per day)
Notes: 1. Total includes net-imports from Russia and Asia-Pacific region. 2. Total OPEC includes the other eight cartel members. 3. As of latest month. Source EIA
Petroleum Supply Monthly.
C5: US Regional Crude Oil Production (million barrels per day)
Notes: 1. California includes Federal Offshore crude oil production. 2. Gulf of Mexico includes Federal Offshore production adjacent to Texas and Louisiana. 3. Crude
oil Reserve-Production ratio as of latest production month. Crude oil production does not include NGLs. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.
OPEC
Canada Mexico Lat. Am. Europe Africa M.E. Total1 Venez. S. Arabia Nigeria Total2 P. Gulf
2008 2.46 1.30 2.15 0.86 1.69 2.40 12.87 1.19 1.53 0.99 5.90 2.37
2009 2.26 0.95 1.84 0.37 1.39 1.73 9.90 1.05 1.01 0.79 4.70 1.69
2010 2.34 0.83 1.56 0.30 1.60 1.76 9.46 0.95 1.12 1.00 4.79 1.75
3Q 2010 2.35 0.87 1.59 0.21 1.74 1.78 9.85 0.95 1.12 1.08 4.98 1.78
4Q 2010 2.33 0.77 1.47 0.05 1.52 1.61 8.59 0.91 1.12 0.92 4.29 1.56
1Q 2011 2.54 0.70 1.43 0.18 1.49 1.61 8.71 1.01 1.11 0.94 4.52 1.59
2Q 2011 2.27 0.62 1.56 0.27 1.32 1.89 8.97 0.99 1.16 0.86 4.54 1.84
3Q 2011 2.37 0.68 1.36 -0.09 1.16 2.10 8.29 0.85 1.29 0.77 4.51 2.02
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 1.0% -22.5% -15.0% -139.9% -33.2% 18.2% -15.9% -10.4% 15.9% -28.7% -9.6% 13.9%
Nov-10 2.33 0.81 1.56 -0.11 1.50 1.69 8.54 0.91 1.14 0.85 4.40 1.65
Dec-10 2.52 0.66 1.38 0.19 1.61 1.56 8.54 0.89 1.09 1.04 4.28 1.56
Jan-11 2.58 0.82 1.62 0.22 1.59 1.71 9.27 1.02 1.10 0.99 4.75 1.69
Feb-11 2.62 0.59 1.21 0.03 1.39 1.45 7.93 0.98 1.11 0.95 4.35 1.43
Mar-11 2.43 0.70 1.47 0.28 1.50 1.66 8.93 1.04 1.11 0.88 4.46 1.64
Apr-11 2.36 0.44 1.62 0.20 1.42 1.71 8.69 0.96 1.11 0.91 4.38 1.68
May-11 2.21 0.70 1.55 0.28 1.32 1.87 9.03 0.98 1.19 0.83 4.46 1.81
Jun-11 2.25 0.70 1.51 0.33 1.21 2.09 9.19 1.04 1.17 0.85 4.78 2.03
Jul-11 2.33 0.75 1.47 -0.03 1.34 2.20 8.75 0.92 1.33 0.87 4.83 2.14
Aug-11 2.31 0.69 1.28 -0.14 1.22 1.97 8.07 0.86 1.08 0.87 4.52 1.91
Sep-11 2.47 0.59 1.32 -0.09 0.92 2.12 8.05 0.79 1.48 0.56 4.18 2.02
Oct-11 2.37 0.58 1.37 -0.01 0.90 1.94 7.89 0.86 1.12 0.69 4.16 1.90
Nov-11 2.45 0.57 1.15 0.12 1.04 1.99 7.99 0.73 1.22 0.70 4.25 1.94
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 5.3% -30.0% -26.2% -215.2% -30.4% 17.9% -6.5% -20.5% 7.1% -17.9% -3.4% 17.8%
% of Total3 30.7% 7.1% 14.4% 1.5% 13.0% 24.9% 100.0% 9.1% 15.3% 8.7% 53.2% 24.3%
Region of Origin
PAD District U.S. Major Producers
East Mid-West S-Cent N-West West Total Alaska Calif.1 Louis. Texas G. of Mex.2
2008 0.02 0.53 2.70 0.36 1.34 4.95 0.68 0.65 0.20 1.07 1.16
2009 0.02 0.58 3.06 0.35 1.27 5.27 0.63 0.63 0.20 1.08 1.51
2010 0.02 0.65 3.18 0.35 1.24 5.44 0.62 0.62 0.18 1.12 1.65
3Q 2010 0.02 0.66 3.18 0.35 1.18 5.40 0.57 0.61 0.18 1.11 1.62
4Q 2010 0.02 0.72 3.24 0.37 1.22 5.56 0.59 0.62 0.18 1.18 1.60
1Q 2011 0.02 0.76 3.35 0.37 1.21 5.71 0.58 0.63 0.19 1.23 1.61
2Q 2011 0.02 0.73 3.18 0.36 1.19 5.49 0.60 0.59 0.18 1.24 1.49
3Q 2011 0.02 0.79 3.32 0.37 1.12 5.62 0.53 0.60 0.19 1.41 1.43
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 4.2% 18.6% 4.2% 5.6% -5.0% 4.1% -6.6% -3.0% 3.0% 26.8% -11.6%
Nov-10 0.02 0.73 3.21 0.37 1.24 5.57 0.61 0.63 0.18 1.19 1.57
Dec-10 0.02 0.72 3.27 0.37 1.24 5.62 0.62 0.62 0.18 1.21 1.60
Jan-11 0.02 0.71 3.14 0.36 1.19 5.41 0.59 0.60 0.18 1.09 1.53
Feb-11 0.02 0.81 3.63 0.40 1.36 6.23 0.68 0.68 0.21 1.37 1.75
Mar-11 0.02 0.75 3.27 0.36 1.08 5.48 0.46 0.61 0.18 1.25 1.56
Apr-11 0.02 0.69 3.03 0.35 1.15 5.24 0.57 0.58 0.17 1.14 1.46
May-11 0.02 0.75 3.26 0.37 1.22 5.63 0.61 0.61 0.18 1.28 1.51
Jun-11 0.02 0.74 3.26 0.37 1.20 5.59 0.61 0.60 0.19 1.29 1.49
Jul-11 0.02 0.76 3.29 0.37 1.18 5.61 0.58 0.60 0.19 1.36 1.46
Aug-11 0.02 0.75 3.21 0.35 1.11 5.44 0.54 0.58 0.18 1.36 1.38
Sep-11 0.02 0.85 3.46 0.39 1.08 5.80 0.47 0.61 0.19 1.51 1.45
Oct-11 0.02 0.84 3.38 0.39 1.12 5.75 0.53 0.59 0.18 1.51 1.39
Nov-11 0.02 0.87 3.19 0.40 1.17 5.64 0.58 0.58 0.18 1.54 1.15
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -0.6% 19.5% -0.7% 8.7% -6.1% 1.3% -4.7% -7.4% -0.8% 29.8% -26.6%
R/P Ratio3 5.9 7.4 9.5 14.2 15.8 10.8 16.7 15.0 7.2 9.8 9.5
CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil
Page 20
C6: US Refinery Activity Crude Input (MMbpd) - Utilization (percent)
Notes: 1) As of most recent month. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.
C7: US Refinery Margins ($US per barrel)
Note: Based on specific crude being processed in average cracking refinery in a given area. As of February 2010, NY Harbor Arab Med. is now East Coast Composite.
Source: Oil and Gas Journal.
East Mid-West South-Central North-West West U.S.
Input Util. Input Util. Input Util. Input Util. Input Util. Input Util.
2008 1.33 77.4 3.22 87.7 7.01 83.2 0.54 88.1 2.76 86.2 14.86 84.3
2009 1.25 77.9 3.21 87.1 7.30 86.1 0.55 87.6 2.62 81.8 14.93 84.8
2010 1.14 82.4 3.34 89.7 7.66 89.0 0.55 88.4 2.63 82.2 15.32 87.4
3Q 2010 1.18 84.1 3.43 92.2 7.79 90.3 0.57 91.8 2.60 80.9 15.57 88.5
4Q 2010 1.05 78.6 3.37 90.9 7.94 92.5 0.57 91.6 2.81 89.4 15.73 90.5
1Q 2011 1.00 63.0 3.32 89.3 7.32 84.7 0.54 86.4 2.49 79.6 14.67 82.9
2Q 2011 1.08 66.6 3.36 90.3 7.69 89.0 0.55 87.3 2.55 81.4 15.22 85.8
3Q 2011 1.25 77.4 3.45 92.7 7.94 91.9 0.54 85.8 2.75 88.0 15.93 89.8
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 6.6% 0.4% 2.0% -6.3% 5.7% 2.3%
Nov-10 0.92 65.8 3.28 88.1 7.73 89.6 0.55 88.1 2.65 82.2 15.13 86.0
Dec-10 1.40 115.9 3.73 102.0 8.63 101.5 0.62 100.5 3.22 108.3 17.59 103.8
Jan-11 1.05 66.4 3.37 90.5 7.69 89.0 0.53 84.5 2.39 76.4 15.03 84.9
Feb-11 0.98 62.0 3.33 89.5 6.81 78.7 0.55 88.6 2.45 78.3 14.12 79.8
Mar-11 0.96 60.6 3.28 88.0 7.47 86.4 0.54 86.1 2.63 84.0 14.87 84.0
Apr-11 0.96 59.3 3.26 87.7 7.48 86.5 0.49 79.2 2.53 81.0 14.73 83.1
May-11 1.15 71.2 3.33 89.5 7.64 88.4 0.56 90.1 2.44 78.1 15.13 85.3
Jun-11 1.12 69.2 3.49 93.7 7.95 92.0 0.58 92.8 2.66 85.0 15.80 89.1
Jul-11 1.29 79.7 3.48 93.6 7.91 91.5 0.55 87.8 2.79 89.0 16.02 90.3
Aug-11 1.23 75.8 3.37 90.7 8.13 94.1 0.55 88.6 2.74 87.5 16.03 90.4
Sep-11 1.24 76.6 3.49 93.7 7.78 90.0 0.51 81.1 2.74 87.5 15.76 88.8
Oct-11 1.13 69.9 3.36 90.2 7.60 87.9 0.56 89.4 2.39 76.4 15.04 84.8
Nov-11 1.62 127.2 3.72 102.0 8.64 103.7 0.62 100.0 3.13 119.8 17.73 107.5
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 76.1% 13.3% 11.7% 13.7% 18.2% 17.2%
% of Total1 9.1% 21.0% 48.7% 3.5% 17.6% 100.0%
NY Harbor Chicago US Gulf Los Angeles
(East Coast Comp.) (WTI) (WTS) (ANS)
2009 3.62 5.28 5.06 12.57
2010 5.49 6.42 7.53 14.47
2011 9.38 22.39 16.94 16.76
1Q 2011 5.62 13.93 20.41 18.64
2Q 2011 10.07 26.80 24.52 18.30
3Q 2011 16.13 31.77 16.50 14.82
4Q 2011 5.69 17.05 6.33 15.29
1Q 2012 8.71 17.28 12.41 10.35
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 55.0% 24.0% -39.2% -44.5%
Apr-11 7.89 24.42 25.26 23.46
May-11 13.09 30.07 23.85 17.27
Jun-11 9.24 25.90 24.45 14.16
Jul-11 11.89 28.98 28.34 13.47
Aug-11 10.65 35.22 13.96 17.42
Sep-11 25.86 31.12 7.19 13.57
Oct-11 6.96 27.15 8.47 19.55
Nov-11 6.61 16.37 5.21 12.19
Dec-11 3.51 7.62 5.32 14.13
Jan-12 9.79 11.55 11.35 16.87
Feb-12 8.89 13.56 12.31 7.54
Mar-12 7.46 26.73 13.57 6.63
Apr-12 12.37 25.30 17.57 3.56
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 56.8% 3.6% -30.4% -84.8%
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 21
D1: Canada Petroleum Supply and Demand Balances (million barrels per day)
D2: Canada Demand by Product (million barrels per day)
Notes: 1. As of most recent month. See notes for Table C1 for additional comments. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.
D3: Canada Petroleum Stocks (million barrels)
Notes: 1. Total includes other finished petroleum products. 2. Total petroleum demand includes refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.
Notes: 1. Total includes other finished petroleum products. 2. Total petroleum stocks include NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. All stocks are closing levels. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.
Canada East West
Supply Demand Net-Exp Stk. Chg. Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance
2008 3.21 1.77 1.48 0.03 0.37 1.09 -0.72 2.84 0.68 2.17
2009 3.22 1.68 1.59 0.04 0.30 1.04 -0.74 2.93 0.64 2.29
2010 3.36 1.74 1.69 0.07 0.32 1.08 -0.76 3.04 0.67 2.38
3Q 2010 3.36 1.81 1.71 0.16 0.37 1.12 -0.76 3.00 0.69 2.31
4Q 2010 3.61 1.73 1.90 0.02 0.36 1.06 -0.69 3.25 0.68 2.58
1Q 2011 3.64 1.78 1.76 -0.10 0.37 1.09 -0.71 3.26 0.69 2.57
2Q 2011 3.31 1.60 1.65 -0.06 0.37 1.00 -0.64 2.94 0.60 2.34
3Q 2011 3.62 1.64 1.94 -0.04 0.37 1.02 -0.65 3.25 0.62 2.63
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 7.6% -9.1% 13.4% 1.7% -9.0% 8.3% -9.4%
Sep-10 3.29 1.70 1.80 0.21 0.39 1.06 -0.67 2.90 0.64 2.26
Oct-10 3.41 1.61 1.83 0.03 0.35 0.96 -0.61 3.06 0.66 2.41
Nov-10 3.71 1.77 1.98 0.03 0.38 1.07 -0.70 3.34 0.69 2.64
Dec-10 3.72 1.81 1.89 -0.01 0.36 1.13 -0.77 3.35 0.68 2.67
Jan-11 3.65 1.66 1.90 -0.09 0.38 1.02 -0.63 3.27 0.64 2.63
Feb-11 3.64 1.79 1.71 -0.13 0.37 1.09 -0.73 3.27 0.69 2.58
Mar-11 3.62 1.88 1.67 -0.07 0.38 1.15 -0.77 3.24 0.73 2.51
Apr-11 3.52 1.62 1.83 -0.07 0.40 1.01 -0.61 3.13 0.61 2.51
May-11 3.17 1.65 1.47 -0.05 0.39 1.02 -0.62 2.78 0.63 2.15
Jun-11 3.23 1.54 1.63 -0.05 0.31 0.98 -0.67 2.92 0.56 2.36
Jul-11 3.54 1.56 2.04 0.06 0.36 0.99 -0.62 3.18 0.58 2.60
Aug-11 3.72 1.66 1.98 -0.08 0.39 1.04 -0.65 3.33 0.62 2.71
Sep-11 3.60 1.71 1.81 -0.09 0.36 1.04 -0.68 3.24 0.67 2.57
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 9.4% 0.2% 0.3% -7.6% -2.4% 11.7% 4.6%
% of Total1 100.0% 100.0% 10.0% 60.8% 90.0% 39.2%
Finished Products NGLs Petrol.
Gasoline Distil. Resid. Total1 Total Total2
2008 0.72 0.54 0.11 1.73 0.55 2.28
2009 0.73 0.51 0.09 1.70 0.53 2.22
2010 0.75 0.55 0.09 1.79 0.53 2.32
3Q 2010 0.79 0.55 0.07 1.86 0.49 2.35
4Q 2010 0.75 0.58 0.10 1.83 0.59 2.42
1Q 2011 0.73 0.58 0.10 1.81 0.65 2.45
2Q 2011 0.77 0.55 0.08 1.79 0.49 2.28
3Q 2011 0.80 0.59 0.07 1.90 0.51 2.41
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 0.5% 7.8% -1.7% 2.0% 4.7% 2.5%
Nov-10 0.76 0.57 0.10 1.82 0.60 2.43
Dec-10 0.77 0.63 0.10 1.90 0.61 2.51
Jan-11 0.70 0.56 0.11 1.74 0.69 2.42
Feb-11 0.73 0.60 0.10 1.82 0.63 2.44
Mar-11 0.76 0.59 0.09 1.86 0.63 2.49
Apr-11 0.73 0.51 0.07 1.69 0.54 2.22
May-11 0.76 0.56 0.08 1.76 0.49 2.25
Jun-11 0.81 0.58 0.08 1.93 0.44 2.37
Jul-11 0.81 0.53 0.06 1.83 0.50 2.33
Aug-11 0.83 0.60 0.08 1.97 0.53 2.50
Sep-11 0.75 0.65 0.08 1.90 0.50 2.39
Oct-11 0.74 0.56 0.08 1.73 0.50 2.23
Nov-11 0.75 0.61 0.10 1.82 0.50 2.31
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -1.5% 7.9% 0.5% -0.4% -17.4% -4.6%
Finished Products Crude Oil Petrol.
Gasoline Distil. Resid. Total1 Total Total2
2008 14.2 17.1 3.1 70.3 71.9 142.2
2009 15.5 15.8 2.6 65.8 76.5 142.3
2010 19.2 16.7 3.3 54.5 99.5 154.0
3Q 2010 16.1 15.4 3.7 52.7 95.8 148.5
4Q 2010 19.2 16.7 3.3 54.5 99.5 154.0
1Q 2011 20.1 15.5 3.6 56.2 94.5 150.7
2Q 2011 17.1 14.4 3.0 52.1 98.9 151.0
3Q 2011 19.4 15.1 3.4 54.4 97.1 151.5
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 20.0% -1.6% -7.3% 3.3% 1.3% 2.0%
Nov-10 18.2 16.5 3.3 54.1 100.5 154.6
Dec-10 19.2 16.7 3.3 54.5 99.5 154.0
Jan-11 19.5 16.3 3.7 55.3 98.5 153.9
Feb-11 19.8 16.1 3.3 55.2 95.8 151.0
Mar-11 20.1 15.5 3.6 56.2 94.5 150.7
Apr-11 18.1 17.2 3.8 56.5 99.1 155.6
May-11 17.6 15.4 3.6 54.9 99.8 154.7
Jun-11 17.1 14.4 3.0 52.1 98.9 151.0
Jul-11 16.0 16.5 3.2 53.8 100.2 154.0
Aug-11 18.1 15.6 2.8 53.5 98.5 152.0
Sep-11 19.4 15.1 3.4 54.4 97.1 151.5
Oct-11 19.0 15.0 3.2 53.8 98.2 152.0
Nov-11 18.9 14.8 3.2 52.8 100.3 153.0
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 3.7% -10.3% -4.6% -2.4% -0.3% -1.0%
CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil
Page 22
D4: Canada Crude Oil Production (million barrels per day)
Note: Total includes small amounts of production from Manitoba and Ontario. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.
D5: Canada Petroleum Imports by Source (thousand barrels per day)
Notes: 1. Includes all non-OPEC production. 2. Includes production by the other seven OPEC members. 3. As of most recent month. Sources: Statistics Canada’s
Energy Statistics Handbook.
Non-OPEC OPEC Imports
Mexico U.S. U.K. Norway Total1 Algeria Nigeria S. Arabia Venez. Total2 P. Gulf Total
2008 26 24 112 141 497 177 23 64 34 347 113 844
2009 26 14 108 98 492 129 48 66 25 294 92 786
2010 23 13 99 72 451 112 71 69 27 318 109 770
3Q 2010 24 9 93 91 469 113 72 90 42 344 117 813
4Q 2010 7 6 73 50 411 125 76 45 11 314 102 725
1Q 2011 15 9 65 69 407 138 78 70 0 332 115 739
2Q 2011 21 5 58 46 349 121 47 91 46 317 103 666
3Q 2011 45 7 10 128 392 128 63 57 13 271 67 662
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 87.4% -22.9% -89.7% 40.8% -16.4% 12.8% -12.7% -37.3% -69.8% -21.4% -42.5% -18.5%
Nov-10 13 6 80 0 356 103 110 69 33 403 157 759
Dec-10 9 8 88 82 444 136 66 66 0 351 149 796
Jan-11 10 10 13 67 361 134 31 69 0 299 133 660
Feb-11 13 8 75 50 341 113 92 76 0 352 148 694
Mar-11 20 8 107 91 519 168 111 65 0 345 65 864
Apr-11 24 8 51 35 361 151 32 70 32 322 107 684
May-11 20 4 39 25 333 116 63 135 87 402 135 734
Jun-11 18 4 84 80 354 95 46 67 20 227 67 582
Jul-11 29 6 0 75 319 107 84 69 21 281 69 600
Aug-11 79 6 29 208 517 148 21 33 17 220 33 737
Sep-11 27 9 0 100 339 128 83 69 0 311 100 650
Oct-11 33 11 35 101 517 127 31 80 0 238 80 755
Nov-11 10 11 43 33 346 150 32 70 0 400 218 746
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -20.8% 86.0% -46.5% #DIV/0! -2.8% 45.6% -71.2% 2.2% -100.0% -0.9% 39.0% -1.8%
% of Total3 1.4% 1.4% 5.7% 4.4% 46.4% 20.1% 4.3% 9.4% 0.0% 53.6% 29.2% 100.0%
Major Producers Canada Petroleum Type
Alta. Sask. B.C. N.W.T. Atlantic Total1 Light SCO Heavy Bitumen NGLs
2008 1.87 0.44 0.03 0.02 0.34 2.74 0.87 0.56 0.46 0.69 0.16
2009 1.98 0.42 0.03 0.02 0.27 2.75 0.77 0.76 0.43 0.63 0.16
2010 2.09 0.42 0.03 0.02 0.28 2.88 0.80 0.78 0.42 0.71 0.15
3Q 2010 2.10 0.42 0.03 0.01 0.28 2.87 0.79 0.82 0.42 0.69 0.15
4Q 2010 2.24 0.43 0.03 0.02 0.27 3.02 0.81 0.90 0.42 0.73 0.15
1Q 2011 2.19 0.44 0.04 0.02 0.27 2.99 0.83 0.84 0.42 0.74 0.15
2Q 2011 2.06 0.40 0.03 0.01 0.27 2.81 0.79 0.72 0.41 0.73 0.14
3Q 2011 2.32 0.43 0.03 0.01 0.28 3.11 0.82 0.94 0.43 0.78 0.14
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 10.7% 2.6% -1.6% -54.3% 0.6% 8.1% 4.1% 14.2% 1.2% 13.2% -6.4%
Sep-10 1.99 0.42 0.03 0.02 0.30 2.79 0.81 0.77 0.42 0.64 0.15
Oct-10 2.09 0.43 0.03 0.02 0.26 2.86 0.79 0.79 0.43 0.70 0.15
Nov-10 2.31 0.43 0.03 0.02 0.28 3.11 0.82 0.95 0.43 0.76 0.15
Dec-10 2.32 0.43 0.03 0.02 0.26 3.10 0.82 0.95 0.42 0.75 0.16
Jan-11 2.18 0.43 0.03 0.02 0.27 2.97 0.82 0.83 0.42 0.74 0.15
Feb-11 2.22 0.44 0.04 0.02 0.26 3.01 0.82 0.85 0.42 0.75 0.15
Mar-11 2.19 0.44 0.04 0.02 0.27 2.99 0.84 0.83 0.43 0.73 0.16
Apr-11 2.19 0.41 0.04 0.02 0.29 2.98 0.85 0.82 0.41 0.74 0.16
May-11 1.91 0.40 0.03 0.01 0.29 2.68 0.79 0.61 0.42 0.72 0.13
Jun-11 2.09 0.39 0.03 0.00 0.23 2.78 0.72 0.72 0.41 0.74 0.13
Jul-11 2.28 0.41 0.03 0.01 0.28 3.04 0.79 0.90 0.42 0.79 0.14
Aug-11 2.38 0.43 0.03 0.01 0.30 3.19 0.83 0.99 0.43 0.79 0.14
Sep-11 2.30 0.44 0.04 0.01 0.27 3.10 0.84 0.93 0.43 0.75 0.14
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 15.5% 6.4% 12.1% -50.2% -7.6% 11.1% 4.4% 21.5% 4.1% 16.3% -5.6%
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 23
E1: World Drilling Activity (active oil and gas rigs)
Notes: 1. Does not include active rigs in the Former Soviet Union and onshore rigs in China. 2. As of latest month. Source: Baker Hughes, Inc.
E2: North American Drilling Activity (active oil and gas rigs)
Notes: 1. Excluding Mexico. 2. Includes drilling on inland waterways. 3. As of latest month. Source: Baker Hughes, Inc.
OECD Non-OECD OPEC World
N. A. Europe Asia-Pac Total Asia Non-Asia Total1 P. Gulf Non-Gulf Total Total1
2009 1,432 69 25 1,527 156 323 479 102 170 272 2,277
2010 1,968 78 21 2,067 189 390 579 109 173 282 2,929
2011 2,363 96 18 2,477 -42 666 624 172 161 333 3,433
1Q 2011 2,386 93 17 2,496 -49 679 630 167 176 343 3,469
2Q 2011 2,104 92 17 2,213 -36 653 618 176 156 332 3,163
3Q 2011 2,491 103 17 2,611 -40 658 618 172 155 327 3,557
4Q 2011 2,473 95 19 2,586 -44 673 629 173 155 329 3,544
1Q 2012 2,681 92 19 2,791 -44 670 626 187 167 354 3,772
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 12.4% -1.8% 9.6% 11.8% -10.9% -1.3% -0.5% 11.8% -4.9% 3.2% 8.7%
Mar-11 2,372 92 16 2,480 -51 660 609 174 171 345 3,434
Apr-11 2,054 89 17 2,160 -43 637 594 180 168 348 3,102
May-11 2,064 94 15 2,173 -32 663 631 174 152 326 3,130
Jun-11 2,193 94 18 2,305 -32 660 628 174 149 323 3,256
Jul-11 2,345 101 17 2,463 -39 653 614 174 144 318 3,395
Aug-11 2,534 110 17 2,661 -42 662 620 170 162 332 3,613
Sep-11 2,594 98 18 2,710 -39 659 620 173 159 332 3,662
Oct-11 2,629 100 19 2,748 -39 673 634 185 155 340 3,722
Nov-11 2,600 101 16 2,717 -36 673 637 183 146 329 3,683
Dec-11 2,189 83 22 2,294 -58 673 615 152 165 317 3,226
Jan-12 2,679 85 17 2,781 -46 665 619 190 161 351 3,751
Feb-12 2,793 99 20 2,912 -43 676 633 187 169 356 3,901
Mar-12 2,570 91 20 2,681 -42 669 627 184 171 355 3,663
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 8.3% -1.1% 25.0% 8.1% -17.6% 1.4% 3.0% 5.7% 0.0% 2.9% 6.7%
% of Total2 70.2% 2.5% 0.5% 73.2% -1.1% 18.3% 17.1% 5.0% 4.7% 9.7% 100.0%
United States Canada North America1
East Mid-West S-Cent N-West West Total Land2 Offshore Total Oil Gas Total
2009 71 189 683 109 36 1,086 1,042 44 221 507 800 1,307
2010 112 282 969 131 46 1,540 1,509 32 351 949 942 1,891
2011 133 399 1,132 156 55 1,875 1,843 32 431 1,419 888 2,307
1Q 2011 126 355 1,041 146 50 1,716 1,691 26 603 1,419 900 2,319
2Q 2011 127 382 1,115 152 53 1,829 1,798 31 188 1,137 880 2,017
3Q 2011 137 416 1,176 158 59 1,945 1,911 34 443 1,495 894 2,389
4Q 2011 141 442 1,198 170 59 2,010 1,973 38 492 1,624 878 2,502
1Q 2012 137 441 1,187 170 55 1,990 1,948 43 592 1,856 726 2,582
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 9.3% 24.2% 14.1% 17.0% 10.5% 16.0% 15.2% 65.3% -1.8% 30.8% -19.3% 11.3%
Mar-11 121 354 1,044 151 51 1,720 1,694 26 567 1,403 884 2,287
Apr-11 121 380 1,087 152 51 1,790 1,762 28 184 1,088 885 1,973
May-11 129 384 1,117 153 54 1,836 1,804 32 143 1,101 878 1,979
Jun-11 132 382 1,141 153 55 1,863 1,829 34 236 1,222 877 2,099
Jul-11 137 387 1,161 159 56 1,900 1,865 35 347 1,368 880 2,248
Aug-11 136 421 1,186 156 59 1,957 1,923 35 473 1,536 894 2,430
Sep-11 137 441 1,179 159 63 1,978 1,946 32 510 1,581 907 2,488
Oct-11 143 442 1,202 167 62 2,017 1,982 35 508 1,592 933 2,525
Nov-11 140 443 1,204 169 56 2,011 1,975 36 487 1,618 880 2,498
Dec-11 140 441 1,188 173 60 2,003 1,961 42 481 1,663 821 2,484
Jan-12 143 432 1,200 173 55 2,003 1,960 43 577 1,790 790 2,580
Feb-12 139 444 1,179 173 55 1,990 1,949 42 706 1,974 723 2,697
Mar-12 130 447 1,182 165 54 1,979 1,935 43 492 1,804 667 2,471
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 7.6% 26.3% 13.3% 9.7% 6.1% 15.0% 14.2% 67.8% -13.2% 28.6% -24.6% 8.0%
% of Total3 5.3% 18.1% 47.8% 6.7% 2.2% 80.1% 78.3% 1.7% 19.9% 73.0% 27.0% 100.0%
CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil
Page 24
Geographical Specifications
1. The World: OECD is comprised of countries from three regions: North America (Canada, Mexico, US); Europe (Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic,
Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Slovak
Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK); and Asia-Pacific (Australia, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea). OPEC is comprised of Persian Gulf (Iran,
Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates) and non-Persian Gulf countries (Algeria, Indonesia, Libya, Nigeria, Venezuela). Non-OECD is
comprised of countries from three regions: Former Soviet Union (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kirghizstan, Moldova, Russia,
Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan); Asia (including non-OECD
Oceania); and non-Asia (Africa, Middle East, Latin America, and non-
OECD Europe). 2. United States: East (PADD I) – New England
(Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island,
Vermont); Central Atlantic (Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York,
Pennsylvania, and the District of Columbia) and Lower Atlantic (Florida,
Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia). Mid
-West (PADD II) – Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan,
Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South
Dakota, Tennessee, and Wisconsin. South-Central (PADD III) – Alabama,
Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Mexico and Texas. North-West
(PADD IV) – Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming. West
(PADD V) – Alaska, Arizona, California, Hawaii, Nevada, Oregon,
Washington.
3. Canada: East is comprised of Ontario, Manitoba, Quebec and the
Maritime provinces (New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova
Scotia, and Prince Edward Island). West is comprised of Alberta, British
Columbia, Saskatchewan and the northern territories (NorthWest
Territories, Nunavuut, and Yukon).
Additional Notes
1. Petroleum and oil refer to crude oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs),
whereas crude oil refers to its namesake and field condensates.
Condensates derived from natural gas processing plants are classified as
NGLs. 2. The spot price is for immediate delivery of crude oil or refined
products at a specific location. Spot transactions are generally on a cargo
by cargo basis. In contrast, a futures price is for delivery of a specified
quantity of a commodity at a specified time and place in the future. 3.
Crude oil sold Free-On-Board (FOB) is made available to the buyer at the
loading port at a particular time, with transportation and insurance the
responsibility of the buyer. Crude oil sold Cost-Insurance-Freight (CIF) is
priced at a major destination point, with the seller responsible for the
transportation and insurance to that point. A “Delivered” transaction is
similar to a CIF transaction, except the buyer in the former pays based on the quantity and quality ascertained at the unloading port, whereas in a CIF
transaction, the buyer accepts the quantity and quality as determined at the loading port. 4. Processing gain is the volume of which refinery output is
greater than crude oil inputs. The difference is due to the processing of crude oil products, which in total have a lower specific gravity than crude oil. 5.
Unaccounted for crude oil reconciles the difference between crude input to refineries and the sum of domestic production, net imports/exports, stock
changes and documented losses (in the U.S.). 6. Totals may not equal the sum of their parts in the statistical tables due to rounding.
Crude Stream
Producing
Country or
Region
API
Gravity
(@60° F)
Sulfur
Content
(%)
BBLs/Metric
Tonne
Tapis Blend Malaysia 44 0.1 7.910
Ekofisk Blend Norway 43 0.2 7.773
WTI Texas 40 0.3 7.640
GCS Gulf of Mexico 40 0.3 7.640
Oklahoma Sweet Oklahoma 40 0.3 7.640
Kansas Sweet Kansas 40 0.4 7.640
Wyoming Sweet Wyoming 40 0.2 7.640
ELS Alberta 40 0.5 7.640
Brent Blend United kingdom 38 0.8 7.551
Bonny Light Nigeria 37 0.1 7.506
Oman Blend Oman 36 0.8 7.462
Arabian Light Saudi Arabia 34 1.8 7.373
Minas Indonesia 34 0.1 7.373
Isthmus Mexico 34 1.5 7.373
Michigan Sour Michigan 34 1.7 7.373
WTS Texas 33 1.7 7.328
Urals Russia 32 1.7 7.284
Tia Juana Light Venezuela 32 1.2 7.284
Dubai U.A.E. 31 1.7 7.239
Lost Hills California 30 0.6 7.194
Cano Limon Colombia 28 0.6 7.105
Arabian Heavy Saudi Arabia 27 2.8 7.061
ANS Alaska 27 1.1 7.061
Oriente Ecuador 25 1.4 6.971
Hardisty Heavy Alberta 25 2.1 6.971
Maya Mexico 22 3.3 6.838
Kern River California 13 1.0 6.436
Crude Oil Qualities
For more information, please contact Dinara Millington at [email protected]. Canadian Energy Research Institute 150, 3512 – 33 Street NW Calgary, AB T2L 2A6
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