Casualty Actuarial Society 1999 Seminar on Ratemaking

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Casualty Actuarial Society 1999 Seminar on Ratemaking. Nashville, TN  March 11-12, 1999. Kim L. Hazelbaker Senior Vice President. Light Truck Sales By Model Year Percent of New Vehicle Sales. 47.5%. Percent of Passenger Vehicle Registrations By Vehicle Type, Weight, and Model Year. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Text of Casualty Actuarial Society 1999 Seminar on Ratemaking

  • Casualty Actuarial Society1999 Seminar on RatemakingKim L. Hazelbaker Senior Vice PresidentNashville, TN March 11-12, 1999

  • Light Truck Sales By Model YearPercent of New Vehicle Sales47.5%

  • Percent of Passenger Vehicle Registrations By Vehicle Type, Weight, and Model Year Vehicle type Weight(lb)19751985199519961997Cars
  • 1998 Model Ford Passenger Vehicles

  • 1998 Model GM Passenger Vehicles

  • 1997 Ford Escort1997 Ford Expedition

  • 1997 Ford Escort1997 Ford Expedition

  • 1997 Ford Escort1997 Ford Expedition

  • Ford Excursion - 2000 Model Year

  • Ford Super Concept Truck

  • Occupant Death Rates 1990-95 Passenger VehiclesDeaths per Million Vehicles per Yearvehicle weight (lb)

    Sheet:

    cars/passenger vans

    utility vehicles

    pickups

  • Occupant Death Rates in Single-Vehicle Crashes 1990-95 Passenger VehiclesDeaths per Million Vehicles per Yearvehicle weight (lb)

    Sheet:

    cars/passenger vans

    utility vehicles

    pickups

  • Occupant Death Rates in Two-Vehicle Crashes 1990-95 Passenger VehiclesDeaths per Million Vehicles per Yearvehicle weight (lb)

    Sheet:

    cars/passenger vans

    utility vehicles

    pickups

  • Occupant Death Rates in Other Vehicles inTwo-Vehicle Crashes, 1990-95 Passenger Vehicles Deaths per Million Vehicles per Yearvehicle weight (lb)

    Sheet:

    cars/passenger vans

    utility vehicles

    pickups

  • Mix of Other Vehicles in Two-Vehicle Fatal Crashes 1990-95 Passenger Vehiclesdeaths in carsOTHERMEDIUM/ HEAVY TRUCKUTILITIESCARS 3500-CARS 2500-CARS
  • Characteristics That Influence Compatibility/Aggressivity in Crashes Between Two Passenger VehiclesWeight Differences decrease risk in the heavier vehicles and increase risk in the lighter vehiclesStructural Mismatches contribute to override/underrideStiffness Differences can decrease the risk if the heavier vehicles are less stiff than the lighter vehiclesHigh Performance is associated with increased crash severity

  • Crash compatibility

  • Companies that Supply Data to HLDIAetna/TravelersAllstateAmerican FamilyAuto Club of MichiganFarmersGEICOThe HartfordKemperLiberty MutualMass. CARMotorsNationwideProgressivePrudentialSAFECOState FarmUSAA

  • VINDICATORInformation Decoded from Vehicle Identification NumbersVIN Positions12345678910 11 12-17World Manufacturer IdentificationVehicle Attributes: Car Line Series Body Type Engine RestraintsCheck DigitModel YearPlant CodeSequential Numberalso: antilock brakes, antitheft devices, daytime running lights

  • Size of HLDI DatabaseNumber of Vehicles in Files, December 1997Model YearNumber of Vehicles199012,906,089199112,649,043199212,104,987199312,856,615199412,517,661199512,129,47519968,898,26319977,759,49019981,319,290Total93,139,913

  • Collision Losses vs. Property Damage Losses1995-97 ModelsAverage LossPayment Per Insured Vehicle YearAverage Loss Payment Per Claimcollisionproperty damageClaim Frequency(claims per 100 insured vehicle years)collisionproperty damage9.06.03.0collisionproperty damage$270$180$90$3,000$2,000$1,000passenger cars, and passenger vanspickups, utility vehicle,and large vans

    Sheet:

    Collision

    Property Damage

    East

    West

    Sheet:

    Collision

    Property Damage

    East

    West

    Sheet:

    Collision

    Property Damage

    East

    West

  • Collision and Property Damage Liability LossesBy Vehicle Type and Size Class, 1995-97 ModelsAverage Loss Payment per Insured Vehicle Year$relative$relativeCars small $268120$7998 midsize $250112$7390 large$20692$6277Passenger Vans $16574$6479Pickupssmall $20089$101125 standard $16875$95117Utilitysmall$21194$94116 Vehiclesmidsize$21295$98121 large$13560$107132All passenger vehicles$224100$81100CollisionProperty Damage Liability

  • Collision vs. Property Damage LiabilityAverage Loss Payment Per Insured Vehicle Year, 1995-97 Modelsproperty damage liabilityHigh Collision Low Property DamageLow Collision Low Property DamageLow Collision High Property DamageHigh Collision High Property Damagecollisionsmall sportsmdsize sportsmdsize luxurymini sportslarge luxuryvery lg luxurymdsize 2-drmdsize 4-drvery lg swvery lg 4-drlarge 4-drpass vanssmall 4-drmini 4-drmini 2-drsmall 2-drsmall utilitystd pickupmidsize utilitylarge vanlarge utilitysmall pickupmdsize swlarge 2-dr

    Sheet:

  • The Washington Post January 24, 1999

  • New Yorker March 9, 1998

  • Miami Herald February 14, 1998

  • Nissan SUT - 2000 Model Year

  • Ford Explorer SportTrac - 2001 Model Year

  • Lincoln Blackwood - 2001 Model Year

  • COMP-0300HLDI-GN-1150COMP-0321COMP-0302COMP-0303HLDI-GN-1149HLDI-GN-11521.Source: FARS, 1991-96; NVPP, R.L. Polk and Company, 1990-952.4000- for cars/passenger vans is actually 4000+ lbs.COMP-03041.Source: FARS, 1991-96; NVPP, R.L. Polk and Company, 1990-952.4000- for cars/passenger vans is actually 4000+ lbs.COMP-03051.Source: FARS, 1991-96; NVPP, R.L. Polk and Company, 1990-952.4000- for cars/passenger vans is actually 4000+ lbs.COMP-03061.Source: FARS, 1991-96; NVPP, R.L. Polk and Company, 1990-952.4000- for cars/passenger vans is actually 4000+ lbs.COMP-0307COMP-0311COMP-0301HLDI-GN-0459HLDI-GN-0460HLDI-GN-0461HLDI-PDL-0481COMP-0320HLDI-PDL-0480SFC-0653SFC-0660SFC-0658HLDI-GN-1154HLDI-GN-1151HLDI-GN-1153