7/25/2019 BUAD 831 Assignment 1

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BUAD 831Dr. Hyde

Assignment 1Forecasting

1. (30 points) Using the data belo!

a) Use a 3"month mo#ing a#erage model to $orecast sales for periods 6-11.

b) Use a %"month mo#ing a#erage model to $orecast sales for periods 6-11.c) Use an e&ponential smoothing model ith '. to $orecast sales for periods 6-11. Assme a

$orecast o$ *%!000 $or period %.

d) Use an e&ponential smoothing model ith '.* to $orecast sales for periods 6-11. Assme a

$orecast o$ *%!000 $or period %.e) +ompare the $orecasts in (a)"(d) $or periods * " 10. ,hich is best- ,hy- pport yor anser

ith appropriate statistics.$) tarting ith yor soltion to part (d)! complete a doble smoothing model for periods 6 -10$or

sales. Again! assme a $orecast o$ *%!000 $or period %.

Note: Do parts a-d, and f using Excel.

/eriod ales1 3%!% 2!1803 %2!*%2 *3!0% **!31%* %!30 *!008 *0!0% 2!%0

10 83!00

. ee the posted 4&cel $ile ith UD tition data $rom 000 5 012. 6o ha#e a daghter ho iscrrently in thgrade. he hopes to attend UD right a$ter she $inishes high school. 7i#en the datain the attached $ile! se a linear model to $orecast her 9A: associated 2"year tition andmandatory $ees (ronded to the nearest 1!000). Use the data set that re$lects yor residency stats.

;$ yo se the ation sing scienti$ic notation andyo=ll ha#e to change the $ormatting to get the e&act nmber yo need. 12 pts

Note: The data does NOT include study abroad tuition and progra fees. !hen you finish the proble,

pic" your #a$ up off the floor and proceed to %roble &'.

3. he table belo shos historical data regarding actal and pro?ected in#entory le#els. ( pts

/eriod 1 3 2 % * 8

Actal %0 0 *0 "0

"10

*% *0 8%

Forecaste 20 *% 0 80 0 % %0 80

7/25/2019 BUAD 831 Assignment 1

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d

a) For periods 1 5 8! on a#erage! did the $orecast nderestimate or o#erestimate- And! by homany nits! on a#erage! did the $orecast nderestimate @o#erestimate per period- 6o mst?sti$y yor anser ith calclations.

b) For periods 1 5 8! the $orecast de#iated $rom actal by an a#erage o$ nits per period.6o mst ?sti$y yor anser ith calclations.

c) ;n this particlar case! hich per$ormance measre old be best to e#alate #arios$orecasting methods $or monthly ending in#entory 5 B;A! AD or 4- Csti$y yoranser.

E)T*+ *EDT / pts0

y policy is to proide no input3help on extra credit 4uestions. +lso, it5s all or nothing 6 full credit orno credit.

6o ?st too o#er as regional manager $or one o$ yor company=s p"and"coming prodcts. heprodct ent on the maret December 013E it=s no Canary 01%. he prodct has been e&periencingslo groth (as e&pected). 4&ponential smoothing ith trend has been sed to $orecast monthlydemand $or the prodct dring these past 13 months. 6o=#e looed at the $orecasted #s actal $or thepast $e months and the $orecast seems to be per$orming ade>ately.

9ne o$ yor employees ?st told yo that she has disco#ered a typo in the initial December $orecast. ;tas entered as %0!000 bt shold ha#e been %!000. he $orecast o#er the past 1 months has ne#er beencorrected.

,hat are yo going to do abot ne&t month=s $orecast- (7ou ust #ustify your course of action.)