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BT nhóm Môn Lập và phân tích dự án trường ĐH Bách Khoa
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1
Lp: L24 Thnh vin nhm
Nguyn V Phng Lin 61302044 Nguyn H Hng Phc 61303042
Th Thanh Tho 61303699
MN LP V PHN TCH D N BI TP NHM
Cu 1: Mt thit b c chi ph u t ban u l 10 t ng, trong 50% l vn vay vi li sut n 10%/nm, vn v li c tr u trong 15 nm. Doanh thu v chi ph (cha tnh khu hao) hng nm ln lt l 10 v 5 t ng. Phng php khu hao u c p dng vi tui th 10 nm, gi tr cn li SV = 0. Gi bn d kin sau 10 nm s dng l 2 t ng, thu sut thu thu nhp doanh nghip v cho cc khon di/ ht vn l 25%. MARR = 20%. Gi s thit b vn tip tc to ra doanh thu v chi ph nh c ngay c khi c khu hao hon ton. Hy dng phng php PW xc nh xem phng n u t ny c ng gi khng.
S tin cng ty vay: 10 50% = 5 t Tin vay vn tr hng nm: 5/15 = 0.333 t
S tin li tr hng nm: 5 10% = 0.5 t Khu hao: D = (10-0)/10 = 1 t
D khu hao: 2-0 = 2 t CFBT = Doanh thu Chi ph TI = CFBT Khu hao Tr li Thu = (TI) (TR) CFAT =CFBT Thu Tr li Tr vn
Nm Thu nhp
Chi ph CFBT D Tr li Tr vn TI Thu CFAT
0 5 -5 -5
1 10 10 5 5 1 0.5 0.333 3.5 0.875 3.292
10 2 2 2 0.5 1.5
11 15 10 5 5 0 0.5 0.333 4.5 1.125 3.045
PW = -5 + 3.292*(P/A,10,20%) + 1.5*(P/F,10,20%) +3.045*(P/A,5,20%)*(P/F,10,20%) = -5 + 3.292*4.192 + 1.5*0.162 + 3.045*2.991*0.162 = 10.52 PW > 0 Phng n ng gi u t. Cu 2: Cng ty ang xem xt cc c hi u t:
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D n u t ban u (tr) Li tc rng hng nm (tr) Tui th
A 100 40 5
B 150 50 5
C 200 60 5
Vi MARR = 10%, cng ty s chn tp d n no nu: a.Ngn sch ca cng ty l 300 triu ng b.Ngn sch ca cng ty l 450 triu ng
Th t Tp d n P (Triu ) PW Ghi ch
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
A B C AB AC BC ABC
-100 -150 -200 -250 -300 -350 -450
51.64 39.55 27.46 91.19 79.1 67.01 118.65
- Loi b trc Loi b trc - Loi b trc Loi b trc -
a. Ngn sch ca cng ty l 300 triu ng
Cng ty chn tp d n 4 (A, B) b. Ngn sch ca cng ty l 450 triu ng
Cng ty chn tp d n 7 (A, B, C) Cu 3: Tnh chi ph s dng vn ca cng ty c cu trc vn nh sau: Vn vay: Tri phiu (2 triu $): Mnh gi $1.000, li sut 10%/nm, tr li theo qu,
s mn hn sau 10 nm, c gi bn hin ti trn th trng l $1.100/tri phiu.
Vay ngn hng (2 triu $): Li sut 8%/nm, tr li hng thng. Vn c phn: C phiu u i (1 triu $): Mnh gi $100. C tc hng nm = 12%. Gi th
trng = $90. C phiu thng (5 triu $): Mnh gi $100. Gi s dng vn l 12%/ nm
Thu sut thu thu nhp doanh nghip tC= 25% Chi ph s dng vn vay tri phiu:
Li sut thc phi tr hng k r =
= 10.38%
Po x (1- fc) = r x F(P/A, i%, n) + F(P/F, i%, n)
1.100 = 10.38% x 1.000 x (P/A,i%, 10) + 1.000 x (P/F, i%, 10)
i% = RB trc thu = 8.83%
RB sau thu = 8.83% x (1-25%) =6.62%
Chi ph s dng vn vay ngn hng:
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Li sut thc phi tr hng thng r =
= 8.3%
RL sau thu = 8.3% x (1-25%) = 6,22%
Chi ph s dng vn c phiu u i:
Rp
13.33% Rp sau thu = 13.33%
Chi ph s dng vn c phiu thng:
Rc = 12% x (1-25%) = 9%
Chi ph s dng vn WACC:
WACC =
Cu 4: D n A c gi tr u t ban u l 250 tr, gi tr cn li SV = 0, thu nhp rng hng nm (trong vng 4 nm) l bin c lp tun theo phn phi chun c gi tr k vng l 100 tr v lch chun 50 tr. MARR = 10%. a.Tnh E(PW), (PW) ca phng n. b.Tnh xc sut phng n khng ng gi c.Tnh xc sut PW ca phng n nm trong khong 100-200 tr Tnh xc sut PW > 200 tr
J 0 1 2 3 4
P -250
A 100 100 100 100
SV 0
Aj -250 100 100 100 100
Var(Aj)= 2(Aj) 0 2500 2500 2500 2500
a. E(PW) =
= -250 + 100x(P/A,10%,4)= -250 + 1000x3.170 = 67
(Triu )
=
=
(Triu )
b. P(PW200)= P(Z>
=F(1.67) = 0.4525 =45.25%
P(100
4