Bridging the Gap Between Bridging the Gap Between Seasonal Climate Forecasts and Seasonal Climate Forecasts and Decisionmakers in AgricultureDecisionmakers in Agriculture

ACIAR ACIAR-PCARRD/-PCARRD/PAGASAPAGASA--PIDSPIDS-L-LSUSU//SARDI-NSWDPI/USSARDI-NSWDPI/US

PROJECT LAUNCHPROJECT LAUNCHJuly July 2727, 2005, 9:00 a.m. - 12:00 n, 2005, 9:00 a.m. - 12:00 noonoon

Camellia-Dahlia Room, Dusit Hotel NikkoCamellia-Dahlia Room, Dusit Hotel Nikko Makati CityMakati City

Plan of ActivitiesPlan of Activities

Seasonal Climate ForecastingSeasonal Climate Forecasting Farm and Policy Level Case StudiesFarm and Policy Level Case Studies Dissemination Dissemination

Plan of ActivitiesPlan of ActivitiesSSeasonal Climate Forecastingeasonal Climate Forecasting

Improving the capacity of PAGASA Improving the capacity of PAGASA to develop and deliver SCFto develop and deliver SCF Document status of climate data in Document status of climate data in

the Philippines and update database the Philippines and update database in RAINMANin RAINMAN

Prepare seasonal climate forecasts to Prepare seasonal climate forecasts to be used in the farm level and policy be used in the farm level and policy level studieslevel studies

Produce information package re SCFProduce information package re SCF

Plan of ActivitiesPlan of ActivitiesValuing SCFValuing SCF

Distilling key practical and Distilling key practical and methodological features of methodological features of economic and psychological economic and psychological approaches to valuing SCFapproaches to valuing SCF Compare the strengths and Compare the strengths and

weaknesses of different approaches weaknesses of different approaches to valuing SCFto valuing SCF

Plan of ActivitiesPlan of ActivitiesCase StudiesCase Studies

3.3. Estimating the potential economic Estimating the potential economic value of SCF for farm level and policy value of SCF for farm level and policy level case studieslevel case studiesa.a. Expected returns from decisions based on Expected returns from decisions based on

knowledge of average rainfall conditions knowledge of average rainfall conditions will be compared with expected returns will be compared with expected returns from decisions based on rainfall from decisions based on rainfall probabilities from SCF.probabilities from SCF.

b.b. Compare alternative methods in terms of Compare alternative methods in terms of ease of use, sensitivity to input ease of use, sensitivity to input assumptions and conclusions regarding assumptions and conclusions regarding potential value of SCF.potential value of SCF.

Sites for the Farm Level Case StudiesSites for the Farm Level Case Studies

SiteSite Impact of Impact of ENSOENSO

Availability of dataAvailability of data

Rainfed corn in Rainfed corn in Isabela ProvinceIsabela Province* Top corn-* Top corn-producing provinceproducing province

Medium Medium impactimpact

Adequate rainfall data. Adequate rainfall data. Production data at provincial Production data at provincial level.level.

Rainfed corn in Rainfed corn in Leyte ProvinceLeyte Province

High impactHigh impact Rainfall data is okay. Rainfall data is okay. Production data at provincial Production data at provincial level. level. Secondary data on biophysical Secondary data on biophysical and socioeconomic and socioeconomic characteristics for Matalom.characteristics for Matalom.

Rainfed corn in Rainfed corn in Bukidnon Province Bukidnon Province * Second top corn-* Second top corn-producing provinceproducing province

Very high Very high impactimpact

Rainfall data is okay. Rainfall data is okay. Production data at provincial Production data at provincial level. level. Secondary data on biophysical Secondary data on biophysical and socioeconomic and socioeconomic characteristics.characteristics.

Plan of ActivitiesPlan of ActivitiesFarm Level Case StudiesFarm Level Case Studies

The studies will provide The studies will provide information about how farmers information about how farmers and other decision makers use and other decision makers use SCF to make real decisions. SCF to make real decisions.

They will also be used to estimate They will also be used to estimate the value of SCF.the value of SCF.

The policy case study will show the The policy case study will show the potential economic value of SCF to potential economic value of SCF to policy level decisions in the policy level decisions in the PhilippinesPhilippines Focuses on procurement and storage Focuses on procurement and storage

of riceof rice NFA responsible for stabilization of NFA responsible for stabilization of

grains supply and prices, both at the grains supply and prices, both at the farmgate and consumer levelsfarmgate and consumer levels

Plan of ActivitiesPlan of ActivitiesPolicy Case StudyPolicy Case Study

Plan of ActivitiesPlan of ActivitiesPolicy Case StudyPolicy Case Study

Philippines net importer of ricePhilippines net importer of rice Grain storage and price decisions are Grain storage and price decisions are

based on expected total grain based on expected total grain production, where total production is production, where total production is projected using statistical forecast projected using statistical forecast based on expected harvested areas based on expected harvested areas and potential yield per hectare.and potential yield per hectare.

Volume of Rice ImportsVolume of Rice Imports(in metric tons) (in metric tons) Philippines, 1980 - 2005Philippines, 1980 - 2005

0

250,000

500,000

750,000

1,000,000

1,250,000

1,500,000

1,750,000

2,000,000

2,250,000

2,500,000

2,750,000

3,000,000

3,250,000

3,500,000

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

ENSO Year Rice

Sources:Sources:Volume of Imports: NFAVolume of Imports: NFAENSO Years: Dr. Wilfredo ENSO Years: Dr. Wilfredo David’s presentation on ENSODavid’s presentation on ENSO

Plan of ActivitiesPlan of ActivitiesPolicy Case StudyPolicy Case Study

This study will explore the links between This study will explore the links between SCF and grain storage policy and evaluate SCF and grain storage policy and evaluate its impact in terms of efficient grain its impact in terms of efficient grain storage and pricing decisions at the storage and pricing decisions at the national and local levels.national and local levels.

This study will examine the impact of ENSO This study will examine the impact of ENSO on the price and regional supply or rice on the price and regional supply or rice purchased by the Philippines, given that purchased by the Philippines, given that ENSO has an impact across Asia. ENSO has an impact across Asia.

Plan of ActivitiesPlan of Activities Actual and Potential Uses of Actual and Potential Uses of

SCFSCF4.4. Identifying factors leading to a gap Identifying factors leading to a gap

between actual and potential values of between actual and potential values of SCFSCFa.a. Describe how SCF are currently being used Describe how SCF are currently being used

in the case study areas in the case study areas b.b. Estimate the actual value of SCF to farm Estimate the actual value of SCF to farm

and policy level decisions in the Philippinesand policy level decisions in the Philippinesc.c. Assess reasons for the divergence in Assess reasons for the divergence in

actual and potential values actual and potential values

Plan of ActivitiesPlan of ActivitiesDisseminationDissemination

5.5. Developing and implementing Developing and implementing strategies to better match forecasts strategies to better match forecasts with decisionmakers’ needswith decisionmakers’ needsa.a. How to present SCF information to farmers How to present SCF information to farmers b.b. How to educate decisionmakers in the use How to educate decisionmakers in the use

of SCF technologies of SCF technologies

Dissemination StrategiesDissemination StrategiesWhat are the information to be What are the information to be

disseminated?disseminated? Basic concepts about weather/climateBasic concepts about weather/climate

various climate phenomena/events, risks various climate phenomena/events, risks involved, the science of seasonal climate involved, the science of seasonal climate forecasts, etc.forecasts, etc.

Regular weather/climate Regular weather/climate outlook/forecastsoutlook/forecasts

Results of project’s various Results of project’s various research/case studies/surveysresearch/case studies/surveys

Dissemination StrategiesDissemination StrategiesWho are our target Who are our target beneficiaries/users?beneficiaries/users?

Basically, the ones making Basically, the ones making decisions in the and affecting the decisions in the and affecting the agriculture sector:agriculture sector:

Farmers - at the farm levelFarmers - at the farm level Policymakers – both at the Policymakers – both at the

national/macro level and the local levelnational/macro level and the local level

Dissemination StrategiesDissemination StrategiesHoHow do we reach them?w do we reach them?

IEC type of activities – seminars, fora, IEC type of activities – seminars, fora, lectures, handouts/publications thru lectures, handouts/publications thru various conduits such as:various conduits such as: LGUsLGUs NGOsNGOs Research centers/groups especially those Research centers/groups especially those

working with farmersworking with farmers Media, especially local media (provincial Media, especially local media (provincial

radio-television stations, local newspapers radio-television stations, local newspapers and media groups), the PIA and and media groups), the PIA and DevComNetDevComNet

Dissemination StrategiesDissemination StrategiesHow do we reach them?How do we reach them?

Dialogues with various groups Dialogues with various groups (especially one case studies and (especially one case studies and surveys)surveys) Farmers groupsFarmers groups Community leaders/associationsCommunity leaders/associations Leagues of barangays, municipalities/cities Leagues of barangays, municipalities/cities

and provincesand provinces MediaMedia InternetInternet

Pulong Saliksikan at PIDS on basic Pulong Saliksikan at PIDS on basic climate concepts and their implications climate concepts and their implications (with government technical and policy (with government technical and policy level representatives)level representatives)

Seminar-workshop at Leyte State Seminar-workshop at Leyte State University (with provincial and municipal University (with provincial and municipal agriculturists, and members of academe agriculturists, and members of academe in the region)in the region)

Quarterly Climate Outlook Fora of Quarterly Climate Outlook Fora of PAGASAPAGASA

Dissemination StrategiesDissemination StrategiesWhat have we done so far?What have we done so far?

Dissemination StrategiesDissemination StrategiesWhat have we done so far?What have we done so far?

Handouts on basic concepts (for media, Handouts on basic concepts (for media, LGUs, NGOs)LGUs, NGOs)

This project launch to introduce the This project launch to introduce the project and to solicit your interest project and to solicit your interest support and feedbacksupport and feedback

Project website detailing the project Project website detailing the project description, objectives and progress of description, objectives and progress of workworkURL is: URL is: http://dirp3.pids.gov.ph/ACIARhttp://dirp3.pids.gov.ph/ACIAR