About PCARRD Told.worldagroforestry.org/downloads/Publications/PDFS/B...i i PHILPI PINE S&T AGENDA ON CLMI ATE CHANGE 20102-016 ABOUT THE MEMBERS OF PCARRD TECHNICAL PANEL ON CLIMATE

TTTTTAbout PCARRD

he Philippine Council for Agriculture, Forestry and NaturalResources Research and Development (PCARRD) is one ofthe sectoral councils under the Department of Science and

Technology (DOST). Established in 1972, PCARRD formulates policies,plans, and programs for science and technology-based developmentin the agriculture, forestry, and natural resources (AFNR) sectors. Itcoord inates, evaluates, and monitors the nat ional research anddevelopment (R&D) efforts in AFNR. It also allocates governmentand external funds for R&D and generates resources to support itsprograms.

The first DOST council to earn an ISO 9001:2000 certification forits quality management system, PCARRD is engaged in activepartnership with international, regional, and national organizations andfunding institutions for joint R&D, human resource development andtraining, technical assistance, and exchange of scientists, information,and technologies.

The Council supports the National Agriculture and ResourcesResearch and Development System (NARRDS), composed of NationalAgriculture and Resources Research and Development Network andthe Regional R&D Consortia. As such, PCARRD has been a potentarm in catalyzing the Philippine AFNR sectors toward self-sufficiencyand global competitiveness.

MAILING ADDRESS PHILIPPINE COUNCIL FOR AGRICULTURE,FORESTRY AND NATURAL RESOURCESRESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENTPaseo de Valmayor, TimuganLos Baños, Laguna, Philippines 4030

TELEPHONES Los Baños - (63) (049) 536-0014 to 536-0015/536-0017 to 536-0020 & 536-0024; 536-5907;536-2330; 536-2305; 536-2383; 536-1956; 536-6980

FAX Los Baños - (63) (049) 536-0016/536-7922DOST, Bicutan, Taguig City (63) (02) 837-1651

E-MAIL [email protected] http://www.pcarrd.dost.gov.ph

PCARRD Policy Advocacy Group Technical Committeeon Climate Change

Dr. Romulo T. Aggangan, ChairDr. Albert P. Aquino, Co-ChairDr. Synan S. BaguioDr. Ernesto O. BrownMr. Richard B. DaiteMr. Roberto P. DevanaderaMr. Anthony C.T.M. ForondaDr. Angelina M. GarcesDr. Susan Sandra L. IlaoDr. Bethilda E. UmaliMr. Marcelino U. Siladan

In collaboration with:

Dr. Leah J. BuendiaDr. Bessie M. BurgosMs. Luz C. FirmalinoDr. Lily Ann D. LandoDr. Elaine F. Lanting

PCARRD Technical Panel on Climate ChangeSecretariat

Mr. Anthony C.T.M. Foronda, HeadMr. Roberto P. DevanaderaMs. Apple Jean C. MartinMs. Danellie Joy O. Medina

LIST OF TEAM MEMBERS

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Philippine Council for Agriculture, Forestry andNatural Resources Research and Development

Department of Science and Technology

Agriculture, Forestry andNatural Resources Sectors

PHILIPPINEPHILIPPINEPHILIPPINEPHILIPPINEPHILIPPINES&T S&T S&T S&T S&T AGENDAGENDAGENDAGENDAGENDAAAAAON CLIMATE CHANGE

20102010201020102010-----20162016201620162016

PHILIPPINE S&T AGENDA ON CLIMATE CHANGE 2010-2016ii

ABOUT THE MEMBERS OF PCARRDTECHNICAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE

Dr. Rodel D. Lasco is Senior Scientist and PhilippinesProgram Coordinator, World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF).

Mr. Leandro V. Buendia is Project Coordinator,USEPA-UNFCCC Project on Regional Capacity BuildingProject for Sustainable National Greenhouse InventoryManagement Systems in Southeast Asia (SEA GHGProject).

Dr. Felino P. Lansigan is Professor, Institute ofStatistics and The School of Environmental Science andManagement, UP Los Baños, College, Laguna.

Dr. Cesar C. Sevilla is Director of the Animal and DairySciences Cluster, College of Agriculture, UP Los Baños,College, Laguna.

Dr. Agnes C. Rola is Professor and Dean, College ofPublic Affairs, UP Los Baños, College, Laguna.

Dr. Cleofe S. Torres is Professor and Dean, College ofDevelopment Communication, UP Los Baños, College,Laguna.

Philippine Council for Agriculture, Forestry and Natural ResourcesResearch and Development. Phil ippine S&T Agenda on Climate Changein the Agriculture, Forestry and Natural Resources Sectors (2010-2016).Los Banos, Laguna: PCARRD-DOST, 2009. ___P.-(Information BulletinSeries No._).

Cover design: Ricarda B. Vil larLayout: Bernabe M. Remoquillo

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Currently, our country is experiencing extremeweather conditions brought about by changing climate. The effects willcontinuously affect our daily lives if we will not come up with concreteand localized strategies to prevent or control climate change. Our sector,the agriculture, forestry and natural resources, are the most vulnerablesince majority of our population depend on it for food, shelter andlivelihood. We realize the urgent need to come up with a holistic andwellcoordinated response mechanisms to minimize the effects of climatechange.

As one of the leading DOST Councils, PCARRD has invested its efforts inthe development of the Philippine S & T Agenda on Climate Change inAgriculture, Forestry and Natural Resources Sectors (PSTACC). TheCouncil crafted the agenda based on various regional and nationalconsultations to capture the issues emanating from the ground andprovide directions towards sustaining productivity and competitivenessof the AFNR sectors amidst climate change.

The PSTACC document will serve as reference for cooperation andpartnership among various AFNR stakeholders in terms of developingS&T projects and/or policies to mainstream response strategies in thenational and local development efforts. The Agenda will also focus onharmonizing national efforts and investments and concentrating thecountry’s limited resources on the most pressing priorities.

I am encouraging everyone to do their share in supporting the PSTACCto counter the effects of this global problem on climate change andprovide more meaningful efforts for national development.

Thank you and Mabuhay!

PPPPPAAAAATRICIO S . FTRICIO S. FTRICIO S . FTRICIO S. FTRICIO S. FAAAAAYLONYLONYLONYLONYLONExecutive Director

MESSAGE

PHILIPPINE COUNCIL FOR AGRICULTURE,FORESTRY AND NATURAL RESOURCES

RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT (PCARRD)Department of Science and Technology (DOST)

PHILIPPINE S&T AGENDA ON CLIMATE CHANGE 2010-2016iv

MESSAGE

It is my pleasure to congratulate the officials and staff ofPCARRD on the successful launching of the Philippine S&T Agendaon Climate Change (PSTACC) for the Agriculture, Forestry, andNatural Resources (AFNR) Sectors.

Climate change has constantly challenged the world, and ourcountry is feeling its impact in the AFNR sectors. Grafting thisAgenda is indeed very timely, as it would primarily address theeffects of this phenomenon on the said sectors. This also serves as aguide for prioritizing and mainstreaming both local and nationalefforts or activities in the AFNR sectors to ensure their productivityand competitiveness in the midst of climate change.

Through consultations with partners and stakeholders in variousparts of the country, PCARRD is assured that the true sense of havinga participative Philippine Agenda has been achieved, May this -serve as the foundation for more fruitful collaborations among allstakeholders to assist the country in coping with the dauntingchallenge of climate change.

Once again, my heart-felt congratulations to PCARRD!

Republic of the PhilippinesDEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

Office of the Secretary

Estrella FEstrella FEstrella FEstrella FEstrella F. Alabastr. Alabastr. Alabastr. Alabastr. AlabastroooooSecretary

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I commend the Philippine Council for Agriculture, Forestry andNatural Resources Research and Development (PCARRD) for proactivelydeveloping this landmark S&T agenda to address the threats of globalclimate change phenomenon in the agriculture, forestry and naturalresources (AFNR) sector.

Indeed, the serious threats of climate change pose an imminent risk inour overall economic well-being and projections, Setting mitigatingmeasures and reorienting efforts and interventions adaptive to this naturaloccurrence will prove to be productive in terms of flexibility andresilience of the AFNR sector,

For NEDA, this is a positive development in situating the directions ofthe national economy, which by far is still dependent on the agricultureand allied sectors as our economic base.

Through this, we are optimistic that our medium-term targets arewell within reach despite existing risks. This agenda will be of great helpin carefully formulating decisive plans and actions for the benefit of oureconomy and the people as a whole.

Again, congratulations for a job well done. Mabuhay tayong lariat!

Augusto SantosAugusto SantosAugusto SantosAugusto SantosAugusto SantosSecretary of Socio-Economic Planningand Director GeneralNational Economic and Development Authority

NATIONAL ECONOMIC AND

DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY

MESSAGE

PHILIPPINE S&T AGENDA ON CLIMATE CHANGE 2010-2016vi

My warmest congratulations to the Philippine Council for Agriculture,Forestry and Natural Resources Research and Development (PCARRD)for coming up with an integrated S&T agenda that is hoped to direct theAFNR sectors in battling the unprecedented impacts of climate change.

This initiative complements the efforts of other agencies, particularly theOffice of the Presidential Adviser on Global Warming and ClimateChange (OPACC) in bringing the nation together to collectively addressthis global phenomenon.

As the impacts of climate change are imminent, we are all the morechallenged to unite and be proactive in ensuring sustained agriculturaldevelopment

With this S&T Agenda, we are one step ahead towards making the AFNRsectors resilient and productive despite the threats of climate change.

Again, my congratulations to PCARRD!

Office of the President of the PhilippinesMalacañan

MESSAGE

Heherson THeherson THeherson THeherson THeher son T. Alvarez. Alvarez. Alvarez. Alvarez. AlvarezSecretary

Office of the Presidential Adviser onGlobal Warming and Climate Change

vii

ACKNOWLEDGMENTSThe Philippine Council for Agriculture, Forestry and Natural

Resources Research and Development (PCARRD) is grateful tothe following people and institutions for their solid team workand unselfish contributions in the crafting of this agenda that wasproduced in just three months:

Members of its Technical Panel on Climate Change, namely:Dr. Rodel D. Lasco; Mr. Leandro V. Buendia; Dr. Felino P.Lansigan; Dr. Agnes C. Rola; Dr. Cesar C. Sevilla; Dr. Cleofe S.Torres, for sharing their valuable time and expertise in thedevelopment of the agenda; and the Secretariat for keeping thework moving within the scheduled time frame;

The Department of Environment and Natural Resources-Ecosystems Research and Development Bureau (DENR-ERDB);UPLB College of Forestry and Natural Resources (CFNR) andSESAM; and ICRAF–Philippines for sharing information on whattheir agencies have done in relation to climate change and fortheir suggestions in the course of developing the Science andTechnology (S&T) Program Framework on Climate Change;

Ms. Bernadeth Lucillo of the Philippine Atmospheric,Geophysical and Astronomical Services Authority-Department ofScience and Technology (PAGASA-DOST), Ms. Resi Marinas of theOffice of the Presidential Adviser on Global Warming andClimate Change (OPACC), Dr. Rodel Lasco who also serves as theEnvironmental Services Cluster Leader for PCARRD, Dr. GinaNilo, Agricultural Ecosystem Expert; Dr. Cesar Sevilla, PastureRuminant Cluster Leader, and Dr. Benigno Pecson, BiotechnologyCluster Leader for serving as resource persons during theConsultation Workshop on S&T Program on Climate Changeheld in February 2009;

The Department of Agriculture-Bureau of Soils and WaterManagement (DA-BSWM), Central Luzon State University, DENR-ERDB, Don Mariano Marcos Memorial State University, ForestProducts Research and Development Institute, Isabela StateUniversity, Mariano Marcos State University, Philippine Rice

PHILIPPINE S&T AGENDA ON CLIMATE CHANGE 2010-2016viii

Research Institute, Silliman University, Southeast Asian RegionalCenter for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture, UPLB,and Visayas State University for sending their experts toparticipate in identifying S&T activities under the ProgramFramework during the workshop:

The various member agencies of the Bicol Consortium forAgriculture and Resources Research and Development, CagayanValley Agriculture and Resources Research and DevelopmentConsortium, Central Luzon Agriculture and Resources Researchand Development Consortium, Highland Agriculture andResources Research and Development Consortium, IlocosAgriculture and Resources Research and DevelopmentConsortium, Northern Mindanao Consortium for Agricultureand Resources, Visayas Consortium for Agriculture andResources Program, and Western Mindanao Agriculture andResources Research and Development Consortium for theirtechnical inputs and validation during the regional consultationson the S&T Program Framework on Climate Change;

The representatives from the Commission on HigherEducation, DENR-ERDB, DOST, National Academy of Scienceand Technology, National Economic Development Authority,OPACC, and PAGASA-DOST for their substantive contributionsduring the National Stakeholders Consultation held in October2009; and

The Policy Advocacy Group Technical Committee onClimate Change for their outstanding efforts and for takingcharge of creatively sourcing the needed resources for thedevelopment of this Philippine S&T Agenda on Climate Changein the AFNR Sectors.

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Topic Page

Foreword xiAcronyms xiiExecutive Summary 1Background and Rationale 3Framework 5

S&T Agenda in Agriculture Sector: Crops and Soils 7 Vulnerability and Impact Assessment 7

State-of-the-Art 7 Gaps 11 S&T Priorities 12 Adaptation 13 State-of-the-Art 13 Gaps 15 S&T Priorities 16 Mitigation 17 State-of-the-Art 17 Gaps 19 S&T Priorities 24

S&T Agenda in Agriculture Sector: Livestock and Poultry 35 Vulnerability and Impact Assessment 35 State-of-the-Art 35 Gaps 43 S&T Priorities 43 Adaptation 44 State-of-the-Art 44 Gaps 45 S&T Priorities 45 Mitigation 46 State-of-the-Art 46 Gaps 47 S&T Priorities 47

Table of Contents

PHILIPPINE S&T AGENDA ON CLIMATE CHANGE 2010-2016x

S&T Agenda: Forestry Sector 53Vulnerability and Impact Assessment 53

State-of-the-Art 53 Gaps 56 S&T Priorities 57 Adaptation 58 State-of-the-Art 58 Gaps 61

S&T Priorities 61 Mitigation 62 State-of-the-Art 62 Gaps 67 S&T Priorities 68 Policy 70 State-of-the-Art 70 Adaptation 72 Mitigation

S&T Agenda: Water Resources Sector 81 Vulnerability and Impact Assessment 81 State-of-the-Art 82 Gaps 84 S&T Priorities 88 Response Mechanisms 92 Adaptation 92 Mitigation 93

S&T Agenda: Policies and Institutions 95 State-of-the-Art 95 Gaps 101 S&T Priorities 101

Cross-Cutting Concerns 107 Integrated Climate Change Information and

Knowledge System 107 Information, Education, and Communication 108 Capacity Building and Enhancement 110 Linkages and Partnerships 111

Appendices 113

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FOREWORD The issue of climate change in the country has started way before

we have ever realized that its catastrophic impacts can happen in reallife. The country ’s records and experiences would attest that muchmore have to be done both on adaptation and mitigation aspects ofresponding to its impacts. Lessons from the recent successivetyphoons “Ondoy,” “Pepeng,” and “Santi,” which practically wroughthavoc to the central, northern and southern parts of Luzon, respectively,have all the more taught us that systematic and quick responses arebadly needed.

Science and technology are tools at our disposal. Their provenworth in enabling our society cope with nature’s wrath should bemaximized. Hence, the crafting of this document comes at a timewhen questions being asked by our countrymen on how to cope betterwith climate change need to be answered. And answers we hope toprovide indeed using science-based information, knowledge, tools, andpractices.

The agenda presented in this document are designed primarily fornational and local policy makers as well as researchers in various R&Dinstitutions. As prioritized, they should serve as guide in steering thecountry ‘s S&T focus and investment in the next six years, particularlyin the AFNR sectors. As guide, they are to serve as our tool and notnecessarily our “master.” At any point in time when new things evolve,its content should be reviewed and updated as necessary. At least, thedocument gives us the benchmark on which our S&T direction might beleveled off and propel its direction towards the development of effectiveresponses to climate change impacts.

To guide the intended users, the document centers on twothematic areas: vulnerabil ity and impact assessment; and developmentof response mechanisms in terms of adaptation and mitigation. Thediscussion on S&T components by sector are structured to addressfour main concerns: vulnerability and impact assessment; responsemechanisms: policy and institutions; and cross-cutting concerns.

Generated by respected national scientists and experts, thisdocument presents authoritative data sets, baselines, and benchmarkson the link between climate change and the AFNR sectors. Whenproperly addressed, these S&T agenda would hopefully helpmainstream climate change concerns in the national and localdevelopment policies, processes, and plans as well as in the lifestyle ofthe Filipino people.

FOREWORD

PHILIPPINE S&T AGENDA ON CLIMATE CHANGE 2010-2016xii

ACRONYMS ACCC Advisory Council on Climate Change ACIAR Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research ADB Asian Development Bank AFMA Agriculture and Fisheries Modernization Act AFNR Agriculture, Forestry, and Natural Resources ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations AusAID Australian Agency for International Development BSWM Bureau of Soils and Water Management BU Bicol University CA College of Agriculture CBFM Community-Based Forest Management CCC Climate Change Commission CCCM Climate and Carbon Cycle Modeling CFNR College of Forestry and Natural Resources CI Conservation International CIP Centro Internacional de la Papa (International Potato Center) CIRCA Centre for Initiatives and Research on Climate Adaptation CLSU Central Luzon State University CLUP Comprehensive Land Use Plan CMU Central Mindanao University CSSAC Camarines Sur State Agricultural College CTA Water consumption-to-availability DA Department of Agriculture DA-RFU Department of Agriculture-Regional Field Unit DENR Department of Environment and Natural Resources DENR-EMB DENR-Environmental Management Bureau DepEd Department of Education DFID Department for International Development (United Kingdom) DIPECHO Disaster Preparedness Echo DND Department of National Defense DOE Department of Energy DOH Department of Health DOST Department of Science and Technology DPWH Department of Public Works and Highways DSWD Department of Social Welfare and Development DOTC Department of Transportation and Communications ECOGOV Environmental Governance EEPSEA Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia ENFOR Environmental Forestry Programme FMB Forest Management Bureau

xiii

GCM Global Circulation Model GEF Global Environment Facility GHG greenhouse gas GIS Geographic Information System GRIPP Green Renewable Independent Power Producer GTZ Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit

(German Technical Cooperation) GWSP Global Water System Project IACCC Inter-Agency Committee on Climate Change IARDS Institute of Agrarian and Rural Development Studies ICRAF World Agroforestry Centre INSTAT Institute of Statistics IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IRRI International Rice Research Institute ISCAF Ifugao State College of Agriculture and Forestry ISF ISP Integrated Social ForestryIndustry Strategic Plans ISPPS Institute of Strategic Planning and Policy Studies ISU Isabela State University IWMI Integrated Water Management Institute JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency LGU local government unit LULUCF land use, land-use change, and forestry MAI Mean Annual Increment MMSU Mariano Marcos State University MPFD Master Plan for Forestry Development MTADP Medium Term Agricultural Development Plan MWSS Metropolitan Waterworks and Sewerage System NAMRIA National Mapping and Resource Information Authority NDCC National Disaster Coordinating Council NDCC-OCD NDCC-Office of Civil Defense NEDA National Economic Development Authority NGO non-government organization NIA National Irrigation Administration NIPAS National Integrated Protected Areas Systems NPC National Power Corporation NWRB National Water Resources BoardOPACC Office of the Presidential Adviser on Global Warming

and Climate Change PA Philippine Agenda PAC Pampanga Agricultural College

ACRONYMS

PHILIPPINE S&T AGENDA ON CLIMATE CHANGE 2010-2016xiv

PAGASA Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and AstronomicalServices Administration

PCA Philippine Coconut Authority PCARRD Philippine Council for Agriculture, Forestry, and Natural

Resources Research and Development PCWA Philippine Climate Watch Alliance Philrice Philippine Rice Research Institute PNCC Philippine Network on Climate Change PSU Pangasinan State University PTFCC Presidential Task Force on Climate Change RCRC Regional Coconut Research Center R&D Research and Development REDD Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and

Forest Degradation RMTU Ramon Magsaysay Technological University SALT Sloping Agriculture and Land Technology SESAM School of Environmental Sciences and Management SRES IPCC emission scenarios S&T Science and Technology SUC Sate Universities and Colleges UNITAR United Nations Institute for Training and Research TCA Tarlac College of Agriculture TLA Timber Lease Agreement UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNFCCC UN Framework Convention on Climate Change UPLB University of the Philippines Los Baños USAID United States Agency for International Development USeP University of Southeastern Philippines USM University of Southern Mindanao WAPC Water availability-per-capita WB World Bank WTA Water withdrawal-to-availability WWF World Wildlife Fund

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARYClimate change are events associated with the increase in

global temperature, changes in precipitation pattern, occurrenceof extreme events, and increase in sea level. Life support systemssuch as agriculture, forestry, and natural resources (AFNR) arehighly vulnerable to this phenomenon. ADB projected that themean cost of climate change for the Philippines and three otherASEAN countries, is about 6.7% of combined gross domesticproduct each year by 2100, if non-market impact andcatastrophic risks are considered.

In 2006, the agriculture sector shares 14.2% of the country’sgross domestic product. Rice and corn are the major cropswhich contributed 34% and 13% gross value added,respectively, to the country’s economy. But these figures arelikely to go down as studies indicate that yield of major cropswould slide by 5-7% due to impacts of climate change.Similarly in 2008, livestock and poultry sector contributed26.47% to the country’s total agricultural output. But this isnow threatened as high temperature, drought, and excessiverainfall adversely affect animal production, nutrition and health.Based on the World Bank study, in one of the major cropproducing regions in the country, the total average annual lossfrom drought, flood, and typhoon inclusive of losses to theinfrastructure can reach P 1,125 million.

Forests play a critical role in climate change as they serve assources and sinks of carbon. They have the greatest potential tosequester carbon through reforestation. agroforesty, andconservation of existing ones. Carbon sequestration isimportant in mitigating global warming that leads to manydisastrous climate extremes. Under rising temperature andprecipitation, change in area of existing life zones is projected tooccur. This could lead to biodiversity loss. Subsequently, thiscould bring about a decline in crop production, food availabilityand worsening livelihood, health, and water supply amongsettlers in the watersheds.

2 PHILIPPINE S&T AGENDA ON CLIMATE CHANGE 2010-2016

Intense rainfall, strong typhoons, and severe droughts bringabout changes in the spatial and temporal distributions of waterresources. This leads to a stiffer competition among variouswater users which could threaten water and food securityparticularly in marginal and vulnerable areas. Thecompetitiveness of the AFNR sectors can be stifled by wateravailability as food production relies heavily on water.

While there are now national and local efforts gearedtowards addressing climate change impacts, it has beenestablished that the Philippines has yet to come up with aneffective and efficient implementing rules and regulations for thenational policy framework on climate change. There arenumerous laws on AFNR but none of these are directed toclimate stresses. Also, synergy among the various AFNRinstitutions is wanting as there are no clear lines of collaborationand coordination between and among them. Hence, there is anurgent effort to take decisive actions to mitigate the threats andadapt to the consequences of climate change.

The Philippine S&T Agenda on Climate Change or PSTACCgenerally aims to sustain the productivity and competitivenessof the AFNR sectors in the midst of climate change or globalwarming. Based on the experts’ comprehensive assessment ofthe vulnerability of the AFNR sectors to climate change impacts,it proposes the priority S&T agenda for climate changeadaptation and mitigation covering the period 2010-2016.

On vulnerability and impact assessment, two major concernsare: (a) mapping of AFNR areas vulnerable to climate change,and (b) monitoring, evaluation, and assessing indicators. Inmapping vulnerable areas, priority should be given to criticalfood production areas, feed grains and pasture crops areas, andvarious forest types. In the monitoring, evaluation, andassessment of indicators, focus should be more on early warningsystems, carrying capacity of areas, agro-meteorology andhydro-meteorology, species-environment interaction, periodicbiological phenomena and climate relations, etiology andvirulence of pathogenic organisms on livestock, socio-economicevaluation of climate change impacts, and integrated assessmentof climate change-related S&T activities and technologies.

3

On response mechanisms, concerns deal with adaptationmechanisms and mitigation measures. For adaptation, prioritiesare on efficient and effective disaster/hazard management;appropriate water and soil/watershed conservation; indigenousgenetic conservation, maintenance, improvement, andutilization; and upgraded production and post-productionsystems. For mitigation, attention should be on techniques forcarbon sequestration and reduction of greenhouse gas emissionsincluding the harnessing of renewable energy resources such asbiomass to energy (e.g. biofuels).

Major propositions under policies and institutions deal onthe integration of climate change concerns in nationalsustainable development policies, mainstreaming climate changeprograms in local governance, and the need for policy andinstitutional landscaping for readiness of Philippine AFNR toclimate change. Salient points for cross cutting concerns includebuild up of an integrated climate change information system,concerted and strategic information, education, andcommunication plan for AFNR sectors, capacity enhancement atthe national, local, and community levels, and creatinginnovative technology transfer modalities for climate change inthe AFNR.

BACKGROUNDAND RATIONALE

Climate change are events associated with the increase inglobal temperature, changes in precipitation pattern, occurrenceof extreme events, and increase in sea level. Examples of theseevents are global warming, typhoons, El Niño, and La Niña. TheIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) FourthAssessment Report (2007) highlights that changes in SoutheastAsia between 2010 and 2099 would include: increase intemperature from 0.72°C to 3.92°C; change in precipitationfrom -2% to 12%; and global rise in sea level from 18cm to 59cm. The Asian Development Bank (ADB), likewise, projects that

BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE


the mean cost of climate change for the Philippines includingthree other ASEAN countries is about 6.7% of combined grossdomestic product each year by 2100. This amounts to twice theglobal average loss.

The Initial Philippines Communication on Climate Changeto United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) indicates that Philippine agriculture sectorcontributes about 33% of the total greenhouse gas (GHG)emissions in 1994 inventory. The forestry sector was a carbonsink during that inventory period.

GHG emission contributes to global warming that results toincreased temperature. From 1906 to 2005, global average airtemperature increased by 0.74°C. Strong temperature increasehas been observed since 1975. The Philippine mean annualtemperature increased by 0.61°C during the period 1951-2006.This resulted to significant increase in frequency of hot days andwarm nights (PAGASA-DOST). Life support systems such asagriculture, forestry, and natural resources are highly vulnerableto these climate change effects. Hence, there is an urgent effortto take decisive actions to mitigate the threats and adapt to theconsequences of climate change.

The Philippine Council for Agriculture, Forestry and NaturalResources Research and Development (PCARRD) drafts thisnational science and technology (S&T) agenda as a consolidatedresponse to climate change in consultation with national experts,the member agencies of the National Agriculture and ResourcesResearch and Development System, and key nationalstakeholders. It presents the framework and the holistic set ofinterventions by which the climate change considerations may bemainstreamed in national and local development efforts.

The Philippine S&T Agenda on Climate Change or PSTACCgenerally aims to sustain the productivity and competitivenessof the AFNR sectors in the midst of climate change/globalwarming. Specifically, it aims to:

5

l Assess the vulnerability of the AFNR sectors to climatechange.

l Assess the impacts of climate change on these sectors andthe impacts of these sectors on climate.

l Develop and implement key S&T projects and/orpolicies to adapt to climate change and to mitigate GHGemissions.

l Build and enhance local capability on adaptation andmitigation strategies.

l Mainstream climate change concerns in local andnational development efforts.

The PSTACC contributes to attaining two of the MilleniumDevelopment Goals, namely: (goal 1) eradication of extremepoverty and hunger and (goal 7) ensure environmental stability.Similarly, it supports the current Medium Term PhilippineDevelopment Plan (MTPDP) in at least three focal areas and welook forward for this being considered in the next MTDP. Onenvironment, it helps strengthen the protection of vulnerableand ecologically fragile areas, especially watersheds and areaswhere biodiversity is highly threatened. On agribusiness, itcontributes in making food plentiful at competitive prices wherethe cost of priority wage goods must be reduced. On energy, itpursues development of renewable energy, specific on biomass,Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), and the emergingcarbon market.

FRAMEWORKClimate change is manifested by increase in temperature,

change in precipitation, and rise in sea level. These certainly haveimpacts on agriculture, forestry, and natural resourcemanagement systems. In keeping with the goal of sustaining theproductivity and competitiveness of the AFNR sectors in themidst of climate change, vulnerability and impact assessmentneeds to be undertaken. Results emanating from such assessmentcan then serve as basis for the development of science-based

FRAMEWORK


Figure 1. Framework on S&T agenda on climate change:agriculture, forestry, and natural resources sectors

strategies for adaptation and mitigation. These strategies wouldthen lead to AFNR sectors being able to adapt to the impacts ofclimate change. In turn, these strategies would help minimize thesectors’ GHG emissions (mitigation) and align the AFNR sectorswith the goals of sustainable development.

7S&T AGENDA ON AGRICULTURE SECTOR: CROPS AND SOILS

S&T AGENDA ONAGRICULTURE SECTOR:CROPS AND SOILS

VULNERABILITY ANDIMPACT ASSESSMENT

State-of-the-Art

About 5-7% decline in yield of major crops in thePhilippines is attributed to climate change.

Between 1971 and 2000, mean annual, maximum, andminimum temperatures in the Philippines have increased by0.14°C (IPCC, 2007). A 1°C rise in temperature reduces grainyield by 5-7% for major crops. This yield reduction is caused byheat stress, decrease in sink formation, shortening of growingperiod, and increased maintenance for respiration. Anextremely high temperature in rice during vegetative growthreduces tiller number and plant height, and negatively affectspanicle and pollen development. Rice plant exposure above35°C for a few hours could lead to increased spikelet sterility byreducing pollen viability.

Since 1980, the Philippines has been experiencing an increasein annual mean rainfall, and since 1990, an increase in thenumber of rainy days. There was also an increase in inter-annualvariability of onset of rainfall in the past decades. This erraticrainfall pattern affected planting schedule and other farmactivities.

PHILIPPINE S&T AGENDA ON CLIMATE CHANGE 2010-20168

Extreme events such as occurrence of heat waves, drought,and heavy rainfall were also observed in recent years. Between1961 and 1998, an increase in hot days and warm nights anddecrease in cold days and nights occurred. There was increasedoccurrence of extreme rains (La Niña) causing flash floods,landslides, and inundation of low-lying areas (Cruz et al., 2006).Drought normally associated with El Niño Southern Oscillationbecame more intense (PAGASA, 2001). All these extreme eventscaused massive crop failures and damage to agriculturalirrigation facilities and infrastructures. The most significantdrought occurrence so far was the 1997-98 El Niño event whichbrought considerable yield decline in rice and corn harvests asshown in Figure 2.

The most serious threat of climate change to Philippineagriculture is the increasing frequency of typhoons. In the lastdecades, the number of typhoons that entered the Philippinearea of responsibility has increased from 15 to 20 per year.These typhoons brought strong winds that destroyed agriculturalfarm and plantations (e.g., sugarcane plantation, fruit trees),caused landslides and flooding, and damaged agriculturalfacilities. The typhoons caused the decline in production of grainand industrial crops and brought infrastructure and economicdamages amounting to billions of pesos.

Figure 2. Rice and corn production in the Philippines(1970-2005)

Source: BAS, 2006


Modeling studies revealed that future climate changewill continue to threaten major crops in the Philippines,with the projected decrease in rice yield of 22% for 2°Cincrease in temperature to as high as 75% for a 4°Cincrease in temperature.

In 2007, rice and corn contributed 34% and 13% grossvalue added, respectively, to the country’s economy. In thestudy by Peng et al. (2004) of the International Rice ResearchInstitute (IRRI), a 1°C rise in temperature above the normalcould lower rice and corn yields in the Philippines by 10%(Figure 3). Sheehy (2002) reported that rice pollination fallsfrom 100% at 34°C to near zero at 40°C leading to crop failure.

Source: Peng et al. (2004).

Figure 3. Relationship between rice yield and temperature

Also, advancing sea level has been a big threat to agriculturalproduction in coastal areas. Sea level rise amplified soil salinity,caused coastal erosion, and displaced areas for crop production.

Modeling studies revealed that climate change will continueto impact agricultural production in the Philippines. In the cropmodeling study by Escaño and Buendia (1994) for the UnitedStates Environmental Protection Agency Modeling Project, anincrease in temperature of +2°C (at 330 ppm carbon dioxideconcentration) was predicted to reduce rice yield by 22%.


Centeno (1995) predicted a yield decrease of 14% due to ahigher increase in temperature and a doubling concentration ofatmospheric carbon dioxide.

IRRI assessed the impacts of climate change on rice and cornproduction in the Philippines using the results of four GlobalCirculation Models (GCMs). As shown in Appendix Table 1, riceshows a generally slight increase in yield of 3.15% and 5.38% inthe first and second crop of IR 64 using climate and carbon cyclemodeling (CCCM); while corn yields tend to decline at 12.64%and 7.07% in the first and second crop, respectively, of PS 3228using CCCM. On the national scale, various GCMs showedconflicting results ranging from 6.6% increase to a 14% declinein yield.

Lansigan and Salvacion (2006) conducted a simulation studyusing an eco-physiological crop simulation model to evaluatethe effect of climate change (i.e., temperature increase anddoubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration) on riceand corn productivity in selected locations in the Philippines.The study evaluated crop yield differences in key representativelocations under an anticipated climate change scenarios definedwith respect to combinations of increased temperature (i.e., 0,0.5, 1.0, 1.5, and 2.0 °C) and carbon dioxide level (i.e. 1xCO2and 2xCO2). The study shows that rice and corn yields tend todecrease while yield variability differed across sites. The studyalso showed that rice has greater change in yield compared withcorn as affected by increase in temperature at both atmosphericcarbon dioxide concentrations.

The most recent study by ADB (2009), using an integratedassessment model, projected that a 4°C increase in temperaturecould result in a decline in rice yield potential in the Philippinesby 75% at the end of the century. It also projects that cornyields will be significantly affected. The impacts could varyamong locations in the Philippines but the most affected orvulnerable areas would be the southern part of the country.


On risk (loss) assessment in agriculture, the World Bank studyin 2008 developed a risk-modeling framework for the riceproduction sector vis-à-vis hydro-meteorological hazards (e.g.,drought, flood, and typhoon) in Region 2. The study providedquantitative and scientifically-based outputs for decision makersengaged in climate risk management practices and policies,disaster risk reduction, and risk transfer. Its results indicated thatthe total average annual loss in Region 2 from drought, flood,and typhoon inclusive of losses to the infrastructure can reach P1,125 million.

GapsClimate change projection studies would be essential in

assessing future impacts on agriculture. In the case of thePhilippines, the country still needs to enhance its capability toestablish and maintain observation facilities and to collect andcompile climatic, social, and biophysical data. Without thesedata, climate change projections and modeling of its futureimpact will be difficult. Projections may end up having highuncertainties due to data limitation.

The country needs to enhance its effort in mappingagricultural areas that are vulnerable to the impacts of climatechange. This can be done through appropriate land use planningand climate change modeling. The Philippines should have acontinuing work on crop modeling to evaluate future impacts ofincreasing temperature on newly introduced major cropvarieties. Some threshold-level settings should be made to assessthe vulnerability of crops to the changing climate. This willinclude assessments of crop production potential as affected byincreasing levels of temperature, decrease or increase inprecipitation (compared to normal); and increase in the level ofatmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. There is a lack ofknowledge of carbon dioxide response for many crops otherthan cereals. IRRI has done some studies on the effect ofincreasing carbon dioxide concentrations in rice. It would beinteresting to know how other major crops in the Philippines


(e.g., fruit trees, root crops, etc.) will respond to elevated carbondioxide concentrations. The combined effects of elevated carbondioxide and climate change on pests, weeds, and diseases arealso not well understood.

The impacts of extreme events on agricultural crops such asdisasters from flooding or submergence, sea level rise or soilsalinity, heat waves, and climate-induced plant diseases andinsect pests, should also be assessed. There is also a need toidentify agricultural communities which could be vulnerable tomultiple stressors due to climate change and environmentalchange.

S&T Priorities

1.1.1.1.1. Knowledge and technology generationKnowledge and technology generationKnowledge and technology generationKnowledge and technology generationKnowledge and technology generation

l Identification of vulnerable areas (e.g., drought-proneareas, flood-prone areas, and salinity-prone areas)through Geographic Information System (GIS) or remotesensing technology. Outcome from this type of studieswill be an essential input for recommending the type ofcrop to plant and appropriate land use.

l Identification of the critical climate thresholds andevaluation of the impacts of extreme weather events likedrought, flooding, diseases and insect pests, and sea levelrise on agricultural production

l Effects of elevated carbon dioxide and increasingtemperature on the yield of major crops in thePhilippines

l Effects of elevated carbon dioxide and increasingtemperature on the occurrence of insect pests anddiseases of major crops in the Philippines

l Effects of climate change on diversity and genetic erosionof vulnerable, threatened, and indigenous crop varieties

l Identification and cloning of genes that could withstandbiotic and abiotic stresses for varietal improvement ofcrops


2 .2.2 .2.2. R&D results utilizationR&D results u tilizationR&D results utilizationR&D results u tilizationR&D resu lts utilization

l Modeling the impacts of climate change on Philippinemajor crops based on the IPCC emission scenarios orSRES (IPCC, 2000) (Note: Using the IPCC SRES emissionscenarios will promote consistency in assumptions andwill allow comparability of results)

3.3.3.3.3. PPPPPolicy analysis and advocacyolicy analysis and advocacyolicy analysis and advocacyolicy analysis and advocacyolicy analysis and advocacy

l Study on the impact of climate change on utilization ofbiofuel crops in the Philippines (research is needed onthe competition for land between bio-energy crops andfood crops)

l Study to identify highly vulnerable micro-environmentsand associated households for the development ofagronomic and economic coping strategies to combatclimate change

l Mainstreaming climate change impacts and vulnerabilityin policy formulation

ADAPTATION

State-of-the-ArtIn recent years, relevant agencies in the Philippines incollaboration with international organizations, havetaken encouraging R&D activities on adaptation inagriculture sector to combat climate change.

Recognizing the adverse impact of increasing temperature onrice, the Philippine Rice Research Institute (Philrice) , incollaboration with IRRI and the University of the Philippines LosBanos (UPLB), evaluates some rice lines or germplasm that canwithstand heat stress or perform best in less water environment.Several studies have already been set up in the country toevaluate the heat tolerance of more than 150 varieties from the


Philippines, Pakistan, Iran, Africa, Nepal, and Saudi Arabia. Toaddress the soil salinity problem brought by sea level rise,PhilRice also screens rice lines or germ plasm that couldwithstand increased soil salinity. Advanced lines are screenedunder the national cooperative testing trials in target areas.PhilRice promotes the use of controlled irrigation technology toimprove water use efficiency and reduce water consumption.

The Bureau of Soils and Water Management (BSWM) of theDepartment of Agriculture (DA) develops strategies for efficientuse of water in agriculture as possible adaptation measure. ThePhilippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical ServicesAdministration (PAGASA) and UPLB develop a knowledge-based crop forecasting system that provides useful informationon crop yield projections and climate variability. PCARRDmonitors and evaluates R&D programs and projects inagriculture which contribute to the development of adaptationtechnologies for other major agricultural crops such as maize,legumes, vegetables, coconut, root crops, and fruit crops. It doesthis in collaboration with international organizations, relevantgovernment agencies, and colleges and universities. Some ofthese adaptation studies are geared towards the improvementof farming systems, enhanced forecasting, crop improvement,integrated pest management, and water use efficiency(Appendix Table 2).

Other international organizations including the InternationalMaize and Wheat Improvement Center, International CropsResearch Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics, and InternationalPotato Center have collaborated with relevant governmentagencies in the Philippines, including PCARRD, to developimproved technologies that could withstand the adverse impactsof climate change on maize, legumes, vegetables, root crops,and other crops.


Gaps

The Philippines has done considerable efforts to developadaptation technologies in agriculture. What is neededis to focus its resources on vulnerable areas and to haveaggressive R&D programs in developing and usingthese potential adaptation technologies to enhance thecountry’s adaptive capacity.

The Philippines can embark on aggressive program topromote the use of more heat/drought-tolerant crop varieties inareas under water stress; more submergence-tolerant cropvarieties; more disease- and pest-tolerant crop varieties; andmore salt-tolerant crop varieties. These technologies are alreadyavailable in the country but would require fine-tuning foreffective adaptation.

Likewise, the country can increase its adaptive capacity byexploring possibilities to modify farming practices and bychanging management philosophy through: (a) alteredapplication of nutrients/fertilizer; (b) altered application ofinsecticides/pesticides; and (c) adjusting planting dates toeffectively adopt to the changing growing season and to copewith climate variability. The Philippines should invest in newtechnologies and should develop agricultural biotechnologiesthat will promote the development and distribution of cropvarieties more tolerant to drought, disease, pest, and salt.

Improvement of agricultural infrastructure is also needed tobolster the development and use of adaptation technologies.These technologies include improvement of irrigation systemsand their efficiencies, and establishment of efficient waterimpounding system in areas vulnerable to drought.


S&T PrioritiesTo enhance the country’s adaptive capacity, the Philippines

has to advance the development of adaptation technologies inagriculture by strengthening its academic and researchinstitutions. It also needs to conduct innovative research inresponse to climate-induced stresses.


l Adaptation researches concerning agro-technology, landand water resources management

l Evaluation of new varieties for heat/drought tolerance,submergence tolerance, soil salinity tolerance, andresistance to insect pests and diseases

l Development of new philosophy in farming practicesand improvement of existing farming practices tocombat climate change

l Evaluation of different planting dates in major crops foroptimum yield

2 .2.2 .2.2 . R&D results utilizationR&D results utilizationR&D results utilizationR&D results utilizationR&D results utilization

l Development of package of adaptation technologies forvulnerable areas (e.g., adaptation technologies fordrought-prone areas, flood-prone areas, saline areas)

3 .3.3 .3.3 . PPPPPolicy analysis and advocacyolicy analysis and advocacyolicy analysis and advocacyolicy analysis and advocacyolicy analysis and advocacy

l Study on sectoral interaction such as between irrigationand water resources, agricultural land use and naturalecosystem, water resources and cropping, in support ofpromoting adaptation technologies

l Study on cost and benefit of potential adaptationtechnologies in agriculture

l Mainstreaming the science of adaptation in policyformulation


R&D institutions in the Philippines participate in theevaluation and promotion of possible measures forreducing greenhouse gases in the agriculture sector.

MITIGATION

State-of-the-Art

PhilRice has collaborated with IRRI in the UNDP Project on“Interregional Research Program on Methane Emission from RiceFields in Asia.” Two rice experimental stations in the country areinvolved: the PhilRice Maligaya Experiment Station in Munoz,Nueva Ecija and the IRRI site in Los Banos, Laguna. These siteshave been equipped with closed chamber system designed forfrequent sampling and long-term measurements of emissionrates. The treatments being evaluated in these stations are : (a)effect of rice cultivar (IR72 and IR 64), (b) crop establishment(transplanted vs. direct seeded), (c) water regime (e.g.,continuous flooding, mid-season drainage, and intermittentirrigation), (d) rates of nitrogen-phosphorous-potassium (NPK)fertilizer application including the use of phosphogypsum, and(d) use of different types and rates of organic fertilizers (Cortonet al., 2000; and Wassmann et al., 2000). Findings from thisproject could serve as basis for mitigation strategies that wouldreduce methane emissions from rice fields in the Philippines.Table 1 shows potential options for the reduction of methaneemissions in rice fields. In a continuously flooded field, there is apotential to reduce methane emission by 63% using compost ascompared to application of fresh rice straw. Mid-season drainagehas the potential to reduce methane emission to as high as 80%as compared to continuously flooded rice fields.

The DA-BSWM promotes the use organic farming to enhancesoil carbon sequestration and reduce the use of chemicalfertilizer. The latter is one of the main sources of nitrous oxideemissions in agriculture. The program promotes sustainable


agriculture through organic farming in rice. By shifting fromconventional farming to organic farming, GHG emissions arelessened while maintaining sustainable growth in agriculturalproduction.

PCARRD, on the other hand, monitors projects dealing onbioenergy and use of organic fertilizer (Table 2). Agriculturalcrops and residues are seen as sources of feed stocks for energyto displace fossil fuels. Crop biomass and residues can be burneddirectly and can also be processed further to generate liquid fuelssuch as ethanol or diesel fuel. When such fuels are burned forenergy, they release the carbon dioxide back to the atmospherewhere they originally belong (i.e., plant absorbs carbon dioxidevia photosynthetic carbon uptake). However, this “biogeniccarbon dioxide” displaces carbon dioxide which otherwisewould have come from fossil carbon.

Table 1. Potential mitigation measures to reduce methaneemissions from rice fields

Note: Values in parenthesis are reduction effects for each mit igation practice or modif iedcrop management

Source: Wassman et. Al. (2000)

Management Practice

Continuous Flooding, Organic Amendm ent

Mid-season Drainage, Organic Amendment

Continuous F looding, No

Organic Amendment

Water regime Mid-season drainage (7-44%)

Mid-season drainage (15-80%)

Alternate flooding/drying (59 – 61%)

Alternate flooding/drying (21– 46%)

Early/dual drainage (7-46%) Organic amendments

Compost (58-63%) Biogas residues (10-16%)

Mineral amendment

Phosphogypsum (27-37%) Phosphogypsum (9-73%)Ammonium sulphate (10-67%) Table urea (10-39%)

Straw management

Fallow incorporation (11%) Mulching (11%)

Crop establishment

Direct wet seeding (16-22%)


Table 2. Some completed, ongoing, and proposed projects incrops sector monitored by PCARRD related tomitigation of climate change

Strategy Project Title Status Agencies Involved

Bioenergy Integrated R&D Program on Biof uels: Subprogram on Utilization of Sweet Sorghum and Cassava as Feedstocks for Ethanol Production

Ongoing

MMSU, UPLB, ISU, PSU, TCA, UPLBCA-La Granja, CMU, PAC, RMTU, DA-RFUs, RCRC, LGUs

Bioenergy Integrated R&D Program on Jatropha curcas for Biodiesel

Ongoing UPLB, CLSU

Organic fertilizer

Investment Package For the Commercial Production of Organic Fertilizer (LGU-based and private entrepreneur-based model)

Ongoing UPLB

Gaps

There are potential mitigation practices in agriculturethat can be evaluated through R&D activities whichcould contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gaseswhile ensuring food security.

In addition to reducing methane emission from rice fields,sequestering carbon in soils, and bio-energy, IPCC (2007)suggests other options which can be evaluated for application toPhilippine condition. Table 3 provides the list of possibleoptions with their relative mitigation potential, challenges andopportunities in adoption, and co-benefits and contribution tosustainable development.


Table 3. Other potential mitigation options in agriculturefor the Philippines

Source: Smith et. al., 2007

Cropland ManagementCropland ManagementCropland ManagementCropland ManagementCropland Management

AgrAgrAgrAgrAgronomyonomyonomyonomyonomy. .... Mitigation can be achieved by improvingagronomic practices of crops to increase yields and generatehigher inputs of carbon residue. This could lead to increased soilcarbon storage. Examples of such agronomic practices include:(a) use of improved crop varieties, (b) extending crop rotationswith perennial crops that allocate more carbon below ground,and (c) provision of temporary vegetative cover betweensuccessive agricultural crops or between rows of trees or vine

Practice Relative Mitigat io n Potential

(unit of product ion )

Challenge/ Barrier

Opportunity Co-benefit and Contribution to

Sustainable Development

Cropland management - Agronomy - Nutr ient management - Tillage/res idue management - Water management

Potential to sequester soil carbon by 0.55-1.14tCO2/ha/year; and reduce nitrous ox ide emiss ions by 0.02-0.07 tCO 2-eq/ha per year

Some measures may challenge ex isting traditional practices.

Effic ient application of these management practices prov ides oppor tunity for better economic returns.

Increases productivity (food security); improves soil, water, and air quality; promotes water and energy conservation; and supports biodivers ity and wildl ife habitat

Agro-forestry, set-aside, land use change

Potential to sequester carbon by 0.70-3.04tCO2/ha per year; reduce methane emiss ion by 0.02 tCO2-eq/ha per year; and reduce nitrous ox ide emiss ion by 0.02-2.30 tCO 2-eq/ha per year

Cropland convers ion reduces areas intended for food production.

Fuelwood harvest from trees could be used for bioenergy; could mean additional returns to farmers. Set- as ide is usually an option only on surplus agricultural land or on croplands of marginal productivity.

Promotes biodiversity and wildl ife habitat; energy conservation and, in some cases, poverty reduction Improves the quality of soil, water, and air; promotes water and energy conservation; supports biodivers ity, wildli fe habitats , and conservation of other biomes

Restoration of degraded lands

Potential to sequester carbon by 3.45 tCO2/ha per year.

Where this practice involves higher nitrogen application, the benefit of carbon sequestration may be partly offset by higher nitrous ox ide emiss ions.

The practice could reclaim the soil productivity .

Increases productivity (food security); improves soil and water quality and aesthetic and amenity value; and supports biodivers ity, wildli fe habitats , and conservation of other biomes


crops. These vegetative cover crops add carbon to soils andprevent soil erosion, thus, reducing loss of soil carbon. They alsoextract some forms of nitrogen available for plants from soils,thereby reducing nitrous oxide emissions. The challenge in usingthis mitigation practice is in the management of nitrogenfertilizer requirements so as not to offset the gains in carbonwith the nitrous oxide emissions from nitrogen fertilizerapplication. It can also improve soil quality (due to increasedsoil carbon storage from higher inputs of carbon residue),prevent erosion, improve water retention, and enhance theconservation of biodiversity by favoring soil microbialcommunities.

Nutrient management.Nutrient management.Nutrient management.Nutrient management.Nutrient management. Mitigation practices that improvenitrogen use efficiency include: (a) placing the nitrogen moreprecisely into the soil to make it more accessible to crop roots(precision farming), (b) using slow or controlled release ofnitrogen fertilizer, (c) applying nitrogen when least susceptible tolosses (improved timing); and (d) avoiding applications ofnitrogen fertilizer in excess of immediate plant requirements. Fora given type of soil and farming system, this practice wouldrequire the establishment of a relationship between the rate ofnitrogen application, crop yield, and soil mineral nitrogen statusas shown in Figure 4. The practice should also ensure that the soilis in a sufficiently fertile state to maximize the efficient use ofnutrients already in the soil or could be available from othersources such as organic residues. The challenge in adopting thispractice is how to convince the farmers to spend more resourcesin monitoring the level of nitrogen and to ensure that thenitrogen is sufficient for the crop.

TTTTTil lage/Rillage/Ril lage/Rillage/Rillage/Residue management:esidue management:esidue management:esidue management:esidue management: This practice is achievedby growing crops using minimal or reduced tillage or withouttillage at all. Soil disturbance stimulates soil carbon lossesthrough enhanced decomposition and erosion, but in reducedtillage or no-till soil, carbon is conserved. The challenge in usingthis practice is that minimum tillage increases weed populationsand, therefore, may increase dependence on chemical controlwhich is costly and maybe damaging to environment.


Source: DEFRA, 2007. A review of research to identify best practice for reducinggreenhouse gases from agriculture and land management. Department for Environment,Food and Rural Affairs. Defra Project AC0208. London, United Kingdom.

Figure 4. Example of the relationship between the rate ofnitrogen application, crop yield, and soil mineralnitrogen status

AgrAgrAgrAgrAgrooooo-----forestrforestrforestrforestrforestryyyyy, Set-aside, Land Use Change, Set-aside, Land Use Change, Set-aside, Land Use Change, Set-aside, Land Use Change, Set-aside, Land Use Change

Agroforestry is achieved by growing food crops on land thatalso grows trees for timber, firewood, or other tree products.Set-aside is implemented by allowing or encouraging thereversion of cropland to another land cover, typically onesimilar to the native vegetation. With these practices, increase invegetation is promoted (biomass stock) which often leads toincreases in soil carbon storage and reduction in direct nitrousoxide emissions through lower nitrogen inputs (IPCC, 2007).The challenge with adopting agroforestry is that it could entailhigh investment. For set-aside practice, it could be considered asan extreme change in land use which is unlikely to be adoptedby subsistence farmers. Thus, a provision for suitable financialincentives must be explored if this mitigation practice is to beadopted.


Restoration of Degraded LandsRestoration of Degraded LandsRestoration of Degraded LandsRestoration of Degraded LandsRestoration of Degraded Lands

The idea of this mitigation practice is to restore lost carbonusing practices that reclaim productivity : (a) planting of grasses,(b) application of organic substrates such as manures, biosolids,and compost, (c) reducing tillage and crop residue management;and (d) water conservation. Using this practice should ensurethat the benefit of carbon sequestration is not offset by theadditional nitrous oxide emissions from the use of nitrogenfertilizer.

Many studies on mitigation in the agriculture sector aredone to quantify the amount of greenhouse gas emissionsin relation to crop yields. Less, or none at all, is done toassess the economics or the cost-effectiveness of mitigationpractices.

IPCC (2007) categorized mitigation potential in agricultureinto two types: (a) technical mitigation potential, and (2)economic mitigation potential. Technical mitigation potentialrefers to the possible amount of greenhouse gases that is reducedby implementing a technology or practice (e.g., reducing theamount of nitrogen fertilizer application will reduce nitrousoxide emission). This type considers only practical constraintswith no reference to cost. Economic mitigation potential, on theother hand, considers the costs. A review of mitigation studies inagriculture conducted in the Philippines revealed that most ofthe studies are geared towards the quantification of greenhousegas emissions and the amount carbon stored or sequestered inthe soil. The information about the cost effectiveness ofmitigation practices is very limited.


S&T Priorities

1.1 .1 .1 .1 . Knowledge and technology generationKnowledge and technology generationKnowledge and technology generationKnowledge and technology generationKnowledge and technology generation

l Development of marginal abatement cost curve (MACcurve) for potential mitigation options in agriculture

l Study on efficient use of nitrogen fertilizer (precisionfarming) and practices that reduce its application (and,thus, also of nitrous oxide emissions) which enhance cropproductivity and environmental quality

l Study on the economics of recycling agricultural residuesfor bioenergy and the economics of growing energycrops

l Development of a crop–livestock–forestry integrationsystems as an effective and sustainable approach toreduce GHG emissions.

2.2.2.2.2. R&D results utilizationR&D results utilizationR&D results utilizationR&D results utilizationR&D results utilization

l Development of package of mitigation technologies foragriculture which consider the technical and economicmitigation potential.

3 .3.3 .3.3 . PPPPPolicy analysis and advocacyolicy analysis and advocacyolicy analysis and advocacyolicy analysis and advocacyolicy analysis and advocacy

l Study on the design of efficient policies to implementmitigation options in agriculture

l Development of innovative strategies and appropriategovernment investment and backing for biofuelproduction from agricultural residues and energy crops


Priority S&T Areas in Agricultureand Water Resources

PRIORITY AREA 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 I . Vulnerability and Impact

Assessment Research and Development

1. Mapping of agriculture production areas vulnerable to climatic extremes (i .e. drought, floods, flashfloods , lands lides /erosion, sea level r ise, marginal lands)

2. Impac t and vulnerabili ty assessment - Development and validation of

techniques/ methodologies for assessing the effects of cl imate change on agriculture and natural resources

- Effec t of inc reased temperature and salt water intrus ion in vulnerable agr icultural produc tion areas

- Impact assessment - Effec ts of temperature extremes

II. Response Mechanisms

Research and Development

1. Effic ient and Effective Disaster/Hazard Management - Developing technologies and

approaches to inc rease res il iency of vulnerable AFNR areas

2. Appropriate W ater and Soil /Watershed Conservation - Management of priori ty

watersheds - Promotion of the use of compost

and organic fertilizer 3. Water Conservation and

Management for Drought and Flooded Conditions - Improvement of drip and spr ink ler

irr igation systems - Sustainable use of shal low

groundwater for agricultural production (Management of groundwater resources for irr igation)

- Minimizing evaporation losses in water reservoir (Enhancing the effic iency of water harves ting technologies)

4. Soil Conservation and Management - Improved land management and

use/sustainable upland farming systems (aerobic r ice prodn sys)


1. Improved Crop Production Systems - Development of cropping

calendars (adjustments in cropping)

- Analysis of cl imatic r isk and coping strategies in c rop produc tion sys tems

2. Upgraded Production Systems Protected agriculture

3. Techniques for Carbon Seques tration and for GHG Emission Reduction - Carbon sequestration valuation of

different vegetation and types in the Philippines

- Developing models for community-based carbon sequestering and carbon trading mechanisms (agro-fores tr y)

4. Development of New Biofuels - Identi fication and development of

second generation biofuels III. Policy and Institutions

Policy

1. Streamlining outputs of strategies for adaptation and mitigation for policy mak ing

IV. Cross – Cutt ing Concerns Research and Development

1. Development/fabrication of weather ins truments

2. Monitoring of c limate ex tremes using real time instruments with data loggers

3. Generation of farm/community level- solar radiation, temperature, humidity, pond evaporation data

Technology Transfer 1. Conservation farming

2. Organic agriculture

3. W atershed management

4. W ater saving technologies (uplands)

5. Farming system and c ropping systems adjustments

6. Use of renewable /alternative energy

7. Climate change adaptation and mitigation s trategies

5.

6.

7.

8.

PRIORITY AREA 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


PRIORITY AREA 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: Agricultural Resources Management Research Division, PCARRD, 2009

Knowledge and Informat ion Management

1. Consolidation of c limate change -related information into databases

2. Development of interactive databases on forecasting methods (on cl imate) modules for cl imate change adaptation (yield and climate change)

3. Improved knowledge and information management and transfer

Capabilit y Building

1. Upgrading of fac ili ties/equipment or fabrication of high quality, affordable instruments

1. Development of efficient weather database management sys tems

4. Putting up of early warning system for c limate extremes/ floods/ lands lides /drought

5. Human resource development


CRD Priority Areas on Climate Change(2010 – 2016)

PRIORITY AREAS 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Impact Assessment and Vulnerability Knowledge and technology generation • Mapping of

agriculture production areas vulnerable to climatic extremes (i.e. drought, floods, flashfloods, landslides/erosion, sea level rise, marginal lands)

1. Corn GIS 2. Other crops

• Identification of the critical climate thresholds and evaluation of the impacts of extreme weather events on agricultural production like drought, flooding, diseases and insect pests, and sea level rise 1. Chickpea 2. Coconut based

S&T interventions 3. Abaca (national

multiloc) 4. Corn

(Biofertilizers for enhanced corn prod’n)

5. Pigeon pea 6. Rice 7. Corn 8. Other crops


• Effects of elevated carbon dioxide and increasing temperature on the yield of major crops in the Philippines

• Effects of elevated

carbon dioxide and increasing temperature on the occurrence of insect pests and d iseases of major crops in the Philippines

� Effects of climate change on diversity and genetic erosion of vulnerable, threatened and indigenous crop varieties

• Identification and cloning of genes that could withstand biotic and abiotic stresses for varietal improvement of crops 1. P lant

identification 2. Gene cloning 3. Application,

engineering Policy analysis and advocacy • Study on the impact

of climate change on utilization of biofuel crops in the Philippines (research is needed on the competition for land between bio-energy crops and food crops)

PRIORITY AREAS 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


• Study to identify highly vulnerable micro-environments and associated households for the development of agronomic and economic coping strategies to combat climate change

• Mainstreaming climate change impacts and vulnerability in policy formulation

R&D results utilization

• Modeling the impacts of climate change on Philippine major crops based on the IPCC emission scenarios or SRES (IPCC, 2000) (Note: Using the IPCC SRES emission scenarios will promote consistency in assumptions and will allow comparability of results)

Capability building and governance

• Strengthening the use of weather and climate-related information (weather forecasting) to improve risk preparedness and to safeguard and maximize agricultural production in the country

PRIORITY AREAS 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


• Establishment and maintenance of observation facilities for the collection and compilation of climatic, social, and biophysical data in support of climate change studies

• Improvement of information-sharing and data networking on climate change in the Philippines

• Awareness

campaign, education, and training on the impacts of climate change and vulnerability of major crops

Adaptation

Knowledge and technology generation • Adaptation

researches concerning agro-technology, land and water resources management

• Evaluation of new varie ties for heat/drought tolerance, submergence tolerance, soil salinity tolerance, and resistance to insect pests and d iseases 1. Rice 2. Drought resistant

peanut varieties 3. Pest resistant

peanut varieties 4. Other crops

PRIORITY AREAS 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


• Development of new philosophy in farming practices and improvement of existing farming practices to combat climate change 1. Rice 2. Other crops

• Evaluation of different planting dates in major crops for optimum yield

Policy analysis and advocacy

• Study on sectoral interaction such as between irrigation and water resources, agricultural land use and natural ecosystem, water resources and cropping, in support of promoting adaptation technologies

• Study on cost and benefit of potential adaptation technologies in agriculture

• Mainstreaming the science of adaptation in policy formulation

R&D results utilization

� Development of package of adaptation technologies for vulnerable areas (e.g., adaptation technologies for drought-prone areas, flood-prone areas, saline areas)

PRIORITY AREAS 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


Source: Crops Research Division, and Agricultural Resources and ManagementResearch Division, PCARRD, 2009.

Capability building and governance

• Improvement of agricultural facilities and infrastructure in support of developing and promoting adaptation technologies

• Increase awareness on the availability and utilization of potential adaptation technologies in agriculture (e.g., new rice var ieties for salt tolerance)

PRIORITY AREAS 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


REFERENCESCenteno, M. G. 1995. “Rice production in the Philippines under current and future

climates.” In R.B. Matthews, M.J. Kropff, D. Bachelet, and H. H. van Laar,eds., Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Rice Production in Asia.International Rice Research Institute, Philippines and CAB International,United Kingdom.

Corton T.M., J.B. Bajita, F.S. Grospe, R.R. Pamplona, C.A. Asis, Jr., R. Wassmann,R.S. Lantin, and L.V. Buendia. 2000. Methane emission from irrigated andintensively managed rice fields in Central Luzon (Philippines). Nutrient cyclingin agroecosystems 58: pp.37–53.

DEFRA. 2007. A review of research to identify best practice for reducing greenhousegases from agriculture and land management. Defra Project AC0206. London.United Kingdom.

Escaño, C. R., and L. V. Buendia. 1994. “Climate impact assessment for agriculture inthe Philippines: simulation of rice yield under c limate change scenarios.” In C.Rosenzweig and A. Iglesias, eds. Implications of Climate Change forInternational Agriculture: Crop Modeling Studies. US Environmental ProtectionAgency, Office of Policy, Planning and Evaluation, Climate Change Division,Adaptation Branch, Washington, DC.

IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and NewYork, New York, United States.

Lansigan, F.P. and A.R. Salvacion. 2006. Vulnerability of agricultural crop productionsystem to variable and changing climate: identifying coping and adaptivestrategies for eff icient water resources management. SEARCA and UPLB. (inpress).

Shaobing Peng et al., “Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from globalwarming.” In the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 6 July2004, pp. 9971–75; Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,“Warmer Evening Temperatures Lower Rice Yields,” press release(Washington, DC: 29 June 2004).

Sheehy, J.E. (2002). International Rice Research Institute, e-mail to Janet Larsen, EarthPolicy Institute, 1 October 2002; Pedro Sanchez, “The Climate Change–SoilFert ility–Food Security Nexus” speech, Sustainable Food Security for All by2020, Bonn, Germany, 4–6 September 2002.

Wassmann R, L.V. Buendia, R.S. Lantin, C.S. Bueno, L.A. Lubigan, LA, A. Umali , N.N.Nocon, A.M. Javellana, and H.U. Neue. 2000. Mechanisms of cropmanagement impact on methane emissions from rice fields in Los Banos,Philippines. Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems. 58: pp.23–36.

35S&T AGENDA ON AGRICULTURE SECTOR: LIVESTOCK AND POULTRY

VULNERABILITY AND IMPACT ASSESSMENT

In 2008, livestock and poultry sector contributed 26.47%to the country’s total agricultural output. But this is nowthreatened by both direct and indirect climate change impacts.The former include high environmental temperatures, excessiverainfall, flooding, and droughts. The latter include low foragesupply, high cost of feed grains, high cost of fossil fuel, andemergence of new diseases, among others.

State-of-the-Art

1.1.1.1.1. Direct effects of high envirDirect effects of high envirDirect effects of high envirDirect effects of high envirDirect effects of high environmental temperature andonmental temperature andonmental temperature andonmental temperature andonmental temperature andhumidity on animal prhumidity on animal prhumidity on animal prhumidity on animal prhumidity on animal productionoductionoductionoductionoduction

Efficient productivity of farm animals is attained within anarrow range of temperatures. For efficient productivity, theseanimals should be able to effectively dissipate body heat intothe surroundings to stay within the thermo neutral or comfortzone. Under a hot and humid environment, the behavioral andphysiological cooling mechanisms of high-producing farmanimals such as reduction in voluntary feed intake, seekingshade, sweating, hyperventilation, defecation, urination, andsalivation may not be sufficient to dissipate body heat.Consequently, they succumb to excess heat load resulting inthermal stress. Heat-stressed animals will exhibit poorproduction and reproduction performance or may even die ofheat stroke.

S&T AGENDA ONAGRICULTURE SECTOR:LIVESTOCK AND POULTRY


The diet of ruminants is highly lignified and fibrous. As such,it requires longer period of fermentation in the rumen, a processthat generates high amount of heat inside the body, amongother fermentation end-products. As well, fast-growing modernswine and poultry breeds generate more body heat when fedhigh-energy diets in a hot environment. Animals subjected to aregime of continuous high ambient temperature initially willreduce their voluntary feed intake and subsequently suffer fromlower meat, milk and egg production, lower reproductive rate,and poor health condition.

Limited local studies related to the vulnerability of livestockand poultry to high temperature and humidity conform to thefindings of numerous studies done in foreign countries. Inpoultry, a study comparing the production and physiologicalresponses between native chicken and commercial broilerssubjected to different combinations of temperature andhumidity showed the adaptability of the native chicken over thebroilers. Figure 5 shows the large increment of cloacaltemperature of broilers from 40.61oC at comfort zone (21 oC and20% relative humidity) to 44.5oC in a hot and humidenvironment (35 oC and 80% humidity). This indicates anincrease of 8.7% in cloacal temperature compared to only 4.7%increment among native chickens. The lower temperature insidethe cloaca of the native chicken illustrates its adaptability to hightemperature and humidity. Likewise, the broilers succumbedmore to the deleterious effects of heat stress as shown bydecreasing feed consumption and lower average total liveweight gain with increasing environmental temperature andhumidity (Figures 6 and 7). This agrees with the findings ofother studies that animals with a higher level of production aremore sensitive to heat stress (Valtorta, nd).

In swine, an analysis of three-year (2005 to 2008) monthlyproduction data of 24 commercial farms (15 large, 4 mediumand 5 small) with a total of 1,761 sow level was conducted byVega et al. (2002). Statistical analysis revealed a “third quarterswine reproductive syndrome,” where values for farrowinginterval and non-productive days were found to be worst


Figure 5. Average cloacal temperature of native andcommercial broiler chickens at differentenvironmental conditions (CZ -comfort zone;WA - warm arid; WH - wet humid; HA - hot arid;HH-hot humid)

Figure 6. Average feed consumption of native and commercialbroiler chickens at different environmentalconditions (CZ - comfort zone; WA - warm arid; WH -wet humid; HA- hot arid; HH - hot humid) id; WH-wetand humid; HA- hot and arid;


Figure 7. Average total liveweight gain of native andcommercial broiler chickens at differentenvironmental conditions (CZ - comfort zone;WA - warm arid; WH-wet humid; HA - hot arid;HH - hot humid)

during the months of July, August, and September (Figure 8).Among the possible reasons were that the animals weresubjected to prolonged heat stress during the hot months of thesecond quarter (April – June) and continued until the hot andhumid months of the third quarter (July – August) in time forparturition. Humidity per se has no direct negative impact onthe animals. But combined with high temperature, it contributesto the occurrence of heat stress. Further, there were significantinteraction effects between farm sizes and months of the year.Values for reproductive indices such as weaning to conceptioninterval, farrowing rate, farrowing interval, incidence ofabortion in sows, and non productive days were better forlarge-sized farms compared with the medium- and small-sizedfarms (Figure 9). The better reproductive performance of sowsin large commercial farms can partly be attributed to bettermanagement and higher level of technology adoption.


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Similar observations were reported in Thailand on theseasonal effects of high ambient temperature on reproductiveperformance of sows (Tummuruk et a.l, 2002). Boars whensubjected to 32-34 oC for three consecutive days, have increasednumber of morphologically abnormal sperm cells and loweredsperm motility. Consequently, elevated temperature conditionsare detrimental to spermatogenesis (Wettemann et al., 1979).Studies have documented the decrease in feed intake of swinefatteners by almost 50% and feed conversion efficiency by 20%with increase in temperature from 15 oC to 35 oC (Myers andBucklin, 2001).

The hot climatic condition limits the potential for milk yieldof dairy animals in the lowlands. With the desire to furtherimprove genetic composition of the local dairy animals throughthe infusion of the temperate breeds, susceptibility to heat stresswill be a major concern that may entail additional expenses foradaptation. In Argentina, dairy animals exhibited 10-14%decrease in milk production after exposure to a three-day heatwave (Valtorta, nd).

A survey conducted in Laguna on the interrelationships ofanimal production, animal health, and the environment showedthat majority of the smallholder farmers as well as mostcommercial animal raisers perceived weather change as the majorpredisposing factor in the outbreak of diseases, followed by lackof health management and inadequate feeding and poorsanitation (Espaldon et al., 2008).

2.2.2.2.2. Direct effects of drDirect effects of drDirect effects of drDirect effects of drDirect effects of drought and eought and eought and eought and eought and exxxxxcessive rainfall oncessive rainfall oncessive rainfall oncessive rainfall oncessive rainfall onanimal pranimal pranimal pranimal pranimal productionoductionoductionoductionoduction

Ruminants are most likely to be directly affected by theoccurrence of either drought or excessive rainfall. Both grazingand stall-fed ruminants will likely suffer from inadequate feed(forage) supply under both climatic extremes, while swine andpoultry will be indirectly affected due to feed crop failure.Continuous rains, flooding, and typhoons will shorten grazingperiod. Prolonged drought, on the other hand, will extend


grazing activity of ruminants and deplete water supply fordrinking and bathing heat-stressed animals. Under bothscenarios, animals will have reduced feed intake and, thus, lowproductivity.

3.3.3.3.3. Indirect impacts of eIndirect impacts of eIndirect impacts of eIndirect impacts of eIndirect impacts of extreme climate events on thextreme climate events on thextreme climate events on thextreme climate events on thextreme climate events on thenutritional and health nutritional and health nutritional and health nutritional and health nutritional and health status of livestock and poultrstatus of livestock and poultrstatus of livestock and poultrstatus of livestock and poultrstatus of livestock and poultryyyyy

The indirect effects of climate change on livestock andpoultry include the predisposition of animals to factors thatlower feed intake, provide inadequate nutrition, and favordisease outbreak. The existing overgrazed, eroded pastures willbecome more unproductive with changes in climate.

Climate change will have a negative impact on the yield ofmajor sources of feed ingredients of swine and poultry diets, aswell as the feeding value of forage for ruminants. Water scarcityfor irrigation, prolonged dry season, and frequency of plantdiseases outbreak may result in the substitution of conventionalfeed crops with non-feed crops and weed invasion of pastures.Among ruminants, lignification of pasture grasses with increasingtemperature will prolong rumen fermentation resulting in lowerfeed intake and higher carbon dioxide and methane emissions.

Another major indirect impact of climate change onlivestock and poultry is fungal contamination (mycotoxins) ofstored feed ingredients due to prolonged rainfall.

Disruption and frequent changes in the feeding regime ofanimals brought about by shortage in feed supply and poorquality of feeds will result in low productivity or increase in thecost of prevention and control of nutritionally-related diseaseoccurrences.

Climatic factors play important role in the etiology of animaldiseases, particularly those of respiratory in nature. Outbreak ofwater-borne, water-mediated, and vector-borne diseases is likelyto increase morbidity and mortality of animals during extremeclimatic events. Major disease incidence results from confluence


of predisposing and causal factors such as poor nutrition,weakened immune system, and heat stress which are allinfluenced by climate change. Nonetheless, climate change willbe favorable to some diseases and unfavorable to others.

Gaps

With the paucity of local research and information on theimpact of climate change on livestock and poultry, there remainsa wide area for research on the effects of heat stress as influencedby breed, feeding system, level of nutrition, housing, andmanagement. In particular, additional information are neededwith regards the modification of the environment throughhousing management, genetic development of less heat-sensitivebreeds/strains, and better feeding and nutritional strategies. Inshort, there is a need to understand the localized impacts ofclimate change not only on livestock and poultry, but on theadaptive capacity of the producers to the impacts of climatechange (IPCC, 2007).

While there are potential substitutes to conventional feedingredients for swine and poultry, like corn and soybean oilmeal, their utilization in commercial feed mixture has remaineduneconomical and impractical.

S&T Priorities


l GIS-assisted identification and evaluation of vulnerableareas for feed grains, pasture crops against drought,salinity, waterlogging, and shading

l Trend analysis of livestock productivity by year andseason

l Assessing the impact of climate change on the etiologyand virulence of pathogenic organisms on livestock

l Trend analysis of occurrence of climate sensitive animaldiseases


l Identification and economic valuation of the differenteffects of climate change on livestock and poultryproductivity

2.2.2.2.2. PPPPPolicy analysis and advocacyolicy analysis and advocacyolicy analysis and advocacyolicy analysis and advocacyolicy analysis and advocacy

l Review of pasture lease agreementsl Review of livestock farm zoning policiesl Study on the impact of declining agricultural land and

water supply on feed crop and pasture productionl Supply chain analysis to pinpoint areas where use of

fossil fuel can be minimized

ADAPTATION

State-of-the-Art

Animal production in the country, through the initiative ofthe private sector, has kept pace with the advances intechnologies specially of foreign origin. Foremost among these isthe use of genetically superior breeds of swine, poultry, anddairy cattle. Since most of improved breeds are developed intemperate countries, these are highly susceptible to heat stress.Thus, commercial and smallholder animal producers developadaptive mechanisms to minimize the effects of heat stress onproductivity of genetically superior breeds. While pig pens thenhad concrete walls, these have now been replaced with ironbars or bamboo poles (in the case of smallholder farms) forbetter ventilation. More recently, there has been an increasingadoption of tunnel ventilation in commercial swine and poultryfarms primarily to minimize heat stress and consequentlyprevent outbreak of diseases. Smallholder swine and poultryhouses are built using light materials instead of galvanized ironsheets as roofing materials of animal pens and poultry houses tominimize heat. In some dairy farms, electric fans are used toimprove air movement inside the pens.


In the field of nutrition, commercial feed mills shift to feedwheat as substitute energy source in swine and poultry dietsduring shortfall in the harvest of yellow corn due to drought,typhoons, or flooding. With regards disease prevention,majority of animal producers employ herd health preventionprograms through immunization and nutrient supplementationto improve the immune system of animals during hot andhumid condition.

Gaps

Adaptation to climate change of livestock and poultry hasbeen limited to the modification of the physical environment.This involves minimizing the effects of heat stress and the use ofcommercial vaccines and supplements to build-up the immunesystem of animal breeds. There are no definite plans andprograms to explore adaptation of farm animals to climatechange through genetic or nutritional means. Majority of studieson native animals have been towards its improvement ratherthan on exploring and use of their inherent tolerance to heat.Similarly, animal nutritional studies tend to focus more onmaximizing productive performance.

There is a need to review land use zoning laws for livestockand poultry to prevent land degradation through grazing,minimize pollution, and promote economic well-being of farmfamilies.

S&T Priorities

Knowledge and technology generationKnowledge and technology generationKnowledge and technology generationKnowledge and technology generationKnowledge and technology generation

l Improving heat tolerance through breedingl Molecular identification of genetic markers for heat

tolerance and disease resistancel Establishing favorable microclimatic conditions for better

housing managementl Development of vaccines for common and emerging

animal diseases


l Improved nutritional management schemes or feedingstrategies adapted to extreme climatic conditions

l Physical modification of the environment tailored fit todifferent production systems

l Development of breeding management interventionsattuned to the changing climatic conditions

l Identification and conservation of indigenous animalgenetic resources adapted to extreme climatic conditions

PPPPPolicy analysis and advocacyolicy analysis and advocacyolicy analysis and advocacyolicy analysis and advocacyolicy analysis and advocacy

l Improving pasture management systems and naturalresource use

l Development of farm models for appropriate animalproduction systems

MITIGATION

State-of-the-Art

Livestock and poultry production requires large tract ofagricultural land for grazing and feed crop production. Withdecreasing land area and an increasing demand for animalproducts, animal production systems have shifted from theextensive, less efficient (grazing animals) to the more efficientand intensive (swine, poultry, dairy cattle) system. Theindustrialization of animal production and the consequentconcentration of large number of animals in small areas haveresulted in serious environmental concerns. These constitute thesector’s contribution to climate change, pollution, and humanhealth.

Manure and enteric fermentation end products from animalproduction are significant sources of greenhouse gases. InLaguna, the global warming potential from livestock andpoultry was estimated at 50.144 tons of carbon dioxide(Espaldon et al, 2008). The combined population of carabaos,


cattle, goats, sheep, and horses contributed 36.52 tons, whileswine and poultry species contributed 12.18 tons and 1.44 tonsof carbon dioxide equivalent, respectively.

However, the socio-economic contribution of livestock tothe livelihood and food security of large population of Filipinosoutweighs its greenhouse gases emissions. Thus, complicatedtrade-offs between resource use, greenhouse gases emissions,and livelihoods need to be assessed. These are made morecomplex still when food security issues that may arise in relationto biofuels are added to the mix (Thornton and Herrero, 2008).

Gaps

The present concern is the development of a climate changeprogram that will address the sustainability and economicviability of livestock production systems, while mitigating thenegative impacts of livestock and poultry on the environment.

Proper nutrition for better digestion of feeds will minimizemethane and nitrous oxide emissions from animal wastes. Atpresent, enzymes and other feed additives are widely used incommercial feed formulations of swine and poultry to improvethe conversion of feed nutrients into animal products. There areno similar nutritional interventions in ruminants to minimizemethane and carbon dioxide emission from rumenfermentation.

S&T PrioritiesPriorities for knowledge and technology generation are asfollows:l Improvement of digestibility of both conventional and

unconventional feedsl Revisit crop-animal integration for efficient use of

resource and conservation and use of biodiversityl Study on nutritional intervention to minimize enteric gas

emissionl Study on more efficient and economical means of animal

waste management


Priority S&T Areas in Livestock SectorPRIORITY AREA 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

I. Vulnerability Assessment

Knowledge and Technology Generat ion

1. Trend analysis of livestock productivity by year and season

2. Identification and economic valuation of the different effects of climate change on livestock and poultry productivity

3. Trend analysis of occurrence of climate sensitive animal diseases

4. Assessing the impact of climate change on the etiology and virulence of pathogenic organisms on livestock

5. GIS-assisted identification and evaluation of vulnerable areas for feed grains, pasture crops against drought, salinity, waterlogging, and shading

Policy Analysis and Advocacy

1. Review of pasture lease agreements

2. Review of livestock farm zoning policies

3. Supply chain analysis to pinpoint areas where use of fossil f uel can be minimized

4. Study on the impact of declining agr icultural land and water supply on f eed crop and pasture production

Capability Building and Governance

1. Improve knowledge and inf ormation management on the impact of climate change

Source: Livestock Research Division, PCARRD, 2009.


II. Adaptat ion

Knowledge and Technology Generation

1. Molecular identification of genetic markers for heat tolerance and disease resistance

2. Improving heat tolerance through breeding

3. Establishing favorable microclimatic conditions for better housing management

4. Development of vaccines for common and emerging animal diseases

5. Improved nutritional management schemes or feeding strategies adapted to extreme climatic conditions

6. Physical modification of the environment tailor fit to different production systems

7. Development of breeding management interventions attuned to the changing climatic conditions

8. Identification and conservation of indigenous animal genetic resources adapted to extreme climatic conditions

Policy analysis and advocacy

1. Improving pasture management systems and natural resource use

2. Development of farm models for appropriate animal production systems

Capability Building and Governance

1. Upgrading of laboratories and other facilities to meet requirements of environment and climate-related R&D

2. Manpower resources development through degree and non-degree trainings

PRIORITY AREA 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


III. Mitigation

Knowledge and Technology Generat ion

1. Improvement of digestibility of both conventional and unconventional feeds

2. Revisit crop-animal integration for efficient use of resource and conservation and use of biodiversity

3. Study on nutr itional intervention to minimize enter ic gas emission

4. Study on more efficient and economical means of animal waste management

B. Policy analysis and advocacy

1. Improve knowledge and inf ormation management

2. Streamline outputs of strategies f or adaptation and mitigation for policy making

PRIORITY AREA 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


REFERENCESEscarlos, J. Jr. 1998. Physiologic and Immunologic Responses of Philippine Native and

Commercial Broiler Chickens to Hot Environment. PhD Dissertation.University of the Philippines Los Baños.

Espaldon, M.V.O., A.J. Alcantara, C.C. Sevilla, C.A. Valdez, M.V. Paraso, S.A. Alaira,A.E. dela Cruz and M.J. Sobremisana. 2008. A GIS-Aided Study ofEnvironmental animal Health and Production in Laguna Province, Philippines.University of the Philippines Los Baños, College, Laguna, Philippines.

FAO. 2006 Livestock Long Shadow: Environmental Issues and Options. Viale delleTerme di Caracalla, 00153 Rome, Italy

IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007: Mit igation. Contribution of Working Group III to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and NewYork, New York, United States.

Myers, R. and R. Bucklin. 2001. Influence of Hot-Humid Environment on GrowthPerformance and Reproduction in Swine. Univers ity of Florida Extension.Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences.

Thornton, P.. and M. Herrero, 2008. “Climate change, vulnerability and livestockkeepers: challenges for poverty alleviat ion.” Proceedings of InternationalConference on Livestock and Global Climate Change. Cambridge UniversityPress.

Tummaruk, P, W. Tantasuparuk, M. Techakumphu, and A. Kunavongkrit. 2002.Seasonal effects on the reproductive performance of gilts and sows. Thai J VetMed 32(3).

Vega, R.S.A., E.M. Agbisit Jr, A.T. Calub, and E.C. Villar. 2002. The third quarterreproductive syndrome as experienced by commercial farms. AnimalHusbandry & Agriculture Journal, March 2002.

Wettemann R.P., M.E. Wells , and R.K. Johnson. 1979. Reproductive characteris tics ofboars during and after exposure to increased ambient temperature. Journalof Animal Science 49:1501-1505.


53S&T AGENDA ON FORESTRY SECTOR

S&T AGENDA ONFORESTRY SECTOR

Among the ecosystems greatly affected by climate change arethe forests. In 1996, only 6.1 M ha (20%) of Philippine forestare left (FMB, 1997). Projected adverse impacts of climatechange on forests include increased occurrence of forest fires,increased occurrence of pests and diseases, and loss of thousandsof species (IPCC, 2007). With reduction in forest area, forest-dependent communities will be affected most severely as climatechange threatens the services which ecosystems provide such asfood and fuel wood; regulation of water, climate and erosion;biodiversity; and recreational, cultural, and religious services.

Research on terrestrial ecosystems and climate change in thePhilippines started about ten years ago. Initially, most of theresearch efforts focused on the role of these ecosystems in carbonsequestration and climate change mitigation. More recently, theimpacts of climate change on forest ecosystems and potentialadaptation measures have also been investigated.

VULNERABILITY AND IMPACT ASSESSMENT

State-of- the-ArtAmong the projected impacts of climate change are the loss

of thousands of species as well as changes in natural ecosystems.Globally, about 20% to 30% of species will be at increasinglyhigh risk of extinction possibly by 2100 (global uncertaintyranges from 10% to 40%, but regional data vary from as low as1% to as high as 80%) as global mean temperatures exceed 2-3°C above pre-industrial levels (Fischlin et al., 2007).


Global vegetation models do not agree on whether tropicalforests will increase or decrease as a result of climate change. Butany major shift in rainfall pattern will affect distribution ofvegetation types. Shifts in rainfall patterns could increaseconversion of forests to agricultural land by increasing migrationfrom areas affected by drought and erosion. Productivity willincrease or decrease depending on rainfall. Temperature changeaffects the climate of a certain area drastically leading to a loss ofa few species of plants and animals that may significantly drainthe biodiversity of these forests. A 2-3°C increase intemperatures will have marginal effects in the tropics butextended exposure to temperatures of 35-40°C combined withwater shortage may damage plant tissue (Hudson and Brown,2006)

A decade ago, it was hypothesized that tropical forest areasin the Philippines will likely expand as temperature andprecipitation increase in many parts of the country (Cruz, 1997).Temperature change may lead to a loss of a few species of plantsand animals that may significantly erode the biodiversity ofthese forests. Although it is also possible that these species mayadapt to stresses in the environment over the period of timeclimate change occurs, it is also possible to speculate that therewill be no significant changes in the biodiversity of the forests.

Since that time, only one research project has been conductedon the potential impacts of climate change on Philippine forestsand local communities. This was composed of a series of studiesunder the project “An integrated assessment of climate changeimpacts, adaptation, and vulnerability in watershed areas andcommunities in Southeast Asia.” This is part of the globalinitiative to promote climate adaptation research.

One study employed the Holdridge Life Zone system (Lascoet al., 2007). The Holdridge Life Zone is an ecologicalclassification system based on the three climatic factors, i.e.precipitation, heat (biotemperature), and humidity (potentialevapotranspiration ratio (Holdridge, 1967). Holdridge defines alife zone as a group of associations related through the effects of


these three major climatic factors. The current vegetation typesin the Philippines fall under dry forest, moist forest, and wetforest. Using GIS, it was simulated how these forest types willchange under increasing rainfall and temperature consistent withearlier projections as contained in the Philippines’ InitialNational Communication (1999) to the UN FrameworkConvention on Climate Change (UNFCC). Early GlobalCirculation Models (GCM) simulations showed that thePhilippines will experience up to 3oC rise in temperature and100% rise in precipitation. More recent GCMs simulationsshowed that precipitation will rise but at a much lower rate. Thedry forests are the most vulnerable terrestrial ecosystems in thePhilippines – they could disappear even with just 25% increasein rainfall (Figure 10). These forests types are found in NorthernLuzon, Negros, Cebu, Palawan, Basilan and General Santos.

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Figure 10. Projected change in area of existing life zones in thePhilippines under rising temperature and precipitation(X-axis legend: Number before P is the % increase inprecipitation; numberbefore T is the increase intemperature in oC)


Various climate change scenario models have predicteddecrease in precipitation and increase temperature in thePantabangan-Carrangalan Watershed in the next 20, 50, and 80years. This is expected to further cause negative effects on thefood availability, crop production, livelihood, health, and watersupply of the residents in the watershed.

Further increase in temperature and decrease inprecipitation present a gloomy scenario to the small farmers inthe watershed studied. Not only will their crop productiondecline, but starvation is likely to be experienced which wouldresult to malnutrition and other kinds of diseases. Many of themwould be engaging in other jobs since the farms they tend couldbe confiscated because of unpaid debts. Availing of high interestloans may no longer be an available adaptation option sincethey do not have collateral to guarantee their loan. Moreover,lenders would also be selective of their clients and wouldprovide loans only to individuals who have capacity to pay. Thepoor farmers also have no choice but to stay in their area becausethey do not have money to transfer to other locations. Hence, intimes of extreme weather conditions like typhoons, they needto evacuate to safer places like schools.

In another study in Lantapan, Bukidnon, impacts of climatevariability and extremes on crops, farm income, domestic andfarm water, soil, and health were assessed.

Gaps

Studies on climate change vulnerability and impacts on forestecosystems and upland communities have just begun and indeedthere are still gaps. This is because of lack of resources andtechnical capacity to conduct impacts and vulnerability research.In view of the onset of climate change, the Philippines need toaggressively invest on research and development on climatechange. Some of the gaps include:

1. Establishment of baseline information2. Assessment of the impacts of climate change on adaptation


l No solid national or regional scale assessment of theimpacts of climate change on water- related disasters likeflashfloods, landslides, siltation among others

l Documentation of best practices (indigenous orotherwise) on water resources for domestic, agricultural,and industrial/commercial purposes

3. Lack of funding on climate change assessmentl Studies conducted only in selected areas having global

significance

S&T PrioritiesImpacts of and vulnerability to climate change R&D

priorities of PCARRD are as follows (Table 4):

Table 1. Climate change R&D priorities

Problem Area/Relevant ISP Target

Assu mption Research and Development

Expected Output

Inadequate climate change impact and vulnerabil ity studies on various forest types and other environmental services (i.e., water) by elevation

• Mangrove/ Beach • Terrestrial • Agroforestry • Urban • Plantation

Climate change scenarios available from PAGASA; historical data

Climate change impact and vulnerabil ity studies on various forest types and other environmental services ( i.e., water ) by elevation • Mangrove/ Beach • Ter restrial • Agroforestry • Urban • Plantation

Vulnerabil ity assessments of various ecosystems

No monitoring of impacts • Phenology • Cropping patterns/systems • Insect infestation

Monitoring of climate change impacts on: • Phenology • Cropping patterns or

systems • Insect infestation

Observed impacts of c limate change on forests

Lack of information on carrying capacity of and impacts (sea level rise and other climate-extreme events) on small is land ecosystems (priority on the Eastern board)

Assessment of carry ing capacity of and climate change impacts on small island ecosystem

Car rying capacity

Lack of database on: • Coping mechanisms of

people • Biophysical character istics

(i.e., flora and fauna, soil, climate)

• Socio-economics

Available data Gather information and develop database for: • Coping mechanisms of

people • Biophysical

characteristics (i.e. flora and fauna, soil, climate)

• Socio-economics

Climate change database

Source: National Consultation Workshop, PCARRD, 2009.


Future studies need to look at how climate change and theaccompanying change in forest types will affect the biodiversityat the species level with special emphasis on rare, threatened,and endangered species. It is also recommended that a thoroughreview of existing policies on managing forest ecosystems in thecountry be conducted. This is to address the projected impactsof climate change and safeguard the country’s forest resourcesfrom irreparable damage. In addition, more refined climatechange scenarios using downscaling techniques are needed tobetter estimate changes in precipitation and temperatures.

ADAPTATION

Adaptation refers to adjustments in natural or humansystems in response to observed or expected changes in climatestimuli, or their effects in order to alleviate adverse impacts, ortake advantage of opportunities (Adger et al., 2005; IPCC,2001; McCarthy et al., 2001). The IPCC suggests the followingpotential adaptation strategies for forest ecosystems in Asia:improved technologies for tree plantation development andreforestation; improvement of protection from fires, insects anddiseases; comprehensive intersectoral programs that combinemeasures to control deforestation and forest degradation withmeasures to increase agricultural productivity and sustainability;extending rotation cycles; reducing damage to remaining trees;reducing logging waste; implementing soil conservationpractices; and using wood in a more carbon-efficient way suchthat a large fraction of their carbon is conserved (Cruz et al.,2007).

State-of-the-ArtAs shown earlier, certain forest types in the Philippines,

especially the dry forest types, are highly vulnerable and couldbe replaced by other types of forests. The laws and regulationsmay need to be re-assessed and updated to focus more on howforest management can be improved to mitigate climate change.


Special attention may be given to areas classified as dry forests,such as those in Northern Luzon, Negros, Cebu, Palawan, Basilan,and General Santos.

In light of this, a national adaptation strategy shouldprobably focus on identifying forested areas that are more at riskand the unique species these areas harbor. Specific adaptationoptions could include conservation and management ofvulnerable species, assisting local communities that are highlydependent on forests at risk, and others.

As part of the Pantabangan-Carranglan Watershed research,adaptation practices and ideas of farmers and stakeholders toclimate variability were documented (Table 5).

Table 5. Adaptation options to climate variability and extremesfor agriculture and forest in Pantabangan-CarrangalanWatershed, Philippines (Lasco et al. 2007)

Land Use Adaptation Option

Tree plantation Adjust silvicultural treatment schedules. Plant species that can adjust to variable climate situations. Observe proper timing of tree planting projects or activ it ies. Implement proper silvicultural practices. Construct f ire lines. Control burning. Do supplemental watering.

Grasslands Hold supplemental feeding of dependents. For agroforestry, adapt SALT method of farming in combination with organic farming. Promote ISF or CBFM. Increase fund for forest protection, regeneration from national government. Increase linkage building of LGU-GO-NGO. Introduce drainage measures. Control burning. Introduce drought-resistant species. Conduct intensive information dissemination campaign among stakeholders.

Natural forest Put up safety net measures for farmers ( by local and national governments). Strengthen coordination between local government units. Cancel timber lease agreements or TLAs (total logging ban).

Source: Multi-stakeholder workshop, 2004


The project also studied the trade-offs between climatechange adaptation strategies in the water sector, forest resources,and local communities (Lasco, et al., 2006). Severalobservations emerged as follows:

1. Adaptation strategies in one sector could have positive and/or negative impact in other sectors. This implies that whilesectoral analyses have their merits, they are not sufficient. Across-sectoral analysis at the watershed scale should be doneto reveal potential synergies and conflicts between sectors.

2. Cross-sectoral analysis of adaptation strategies will enablemanagers to anticipate potential conflicts early on. As wehave shown, certain adaptation strategies could negativelyaffect other sectors. For example, reforestation may requiremore labor from farmers or increased expenditures bygovernment agencies. If these effects are not considered,adaptation strategies may not be implemented at all for lackof cooperation by affected sectors. By considering these atthe beginning, there will be greater opportunities for findingsolutions.

3. It is possible to identify climate change adaptation strategiesthat could address more than one sector, thus, enhancingsynergy. A good example of this is tree planting/reforestation, which was identified as an adaptation strategyby all three sectors. By focusing on such strategies, conflictsare avoided. There is also a greater chance of stakeholderacceptance when all are convinced of the desirability ofimplementing common adaptation strategies.

4. Cost is the major limiting factor for adaptation strategies.The most common trade-off identified for all sectors is theadditional cost that will be incurred in the implementationof adaptation strategies such as in the construction of awater-impounding structure or in tree planting. Indeveloping countries such as the Philippines, priority forclimate change adaptation is low. Adaptation strategies that


meet other (“more important”) goals may have betterchances of implementation. For example, reforestation andtree planting are on-going in the watershed, irrespective ofclimate change considerations.

GapsTo date, there are only a couple of studies on climate change

adaptation in Philippine forests. Clearly, much remains to bedone. There are gaps in knowledge in almost all areas. Table 6below shows the current knowledge gaps and proposed S&Tinterventions. Much still needs to be done when it comes toknowledge gaps in climate change adaptation. The mainchallenge is to systematically bridge the communities, local andinternational institutions, and the environment with theadaptation process.

Effective communication through information disseminationis needed to bridge the knowledge gaps in climate changeadaptation. Information availability and dissemination are veryimportant to improve the capacity of the scientific community(research institutions, government agencies, and policy makers).There is also a need for communication to enhance monitoringsystems and develop early warning systems. It should furtherdevelop mechanisms and tools for translating availableinformation to policy makers to enable them to decide onpolicies/strategies that will enable the Philippines to adapt betterto a changing climate.

S&T PrioritiesThe priorities for addressing the gaps in the development of

adaptation strategies in the forestry sector are shown in Table 6.


Table 6. Gaps and R&D priorities in the development ofadaptation strategies

Knowledge Gap S&T Intervention Expected Output

Lack of information on how forest ecosystems help upland/local communities adapt to climate change (coping mechanisms)

Documentation and assessment of local practices, knowledge, research results on the use of forest resources to enhance resilience of local communities to climate change

Best practices for adaptation using forest resources

Lack of information on adaptation strategies by ecosystems: • Urban • Mangrove/ Beach • Terrestrial • Plantation • Agroforestry

Assessment and documentation of adaptation strategies by ecosystems: • Urban • Mangrove/ Beach • Terrestrial • Plantation • Agroforestry

Adaptation strategies and measures for terrestrial and other ecosystems

Lack of economic analysis on adaptation activities in forestry • Valuation studies on

environmental serv ices

Economic analysis of adaptation activities in forestry

Valuation studies on environmental services Benefit-cost analysis of adaptation activities

Economic analysis of adaptation activities in forestry

MITIGATION

State-of- the-ArtThe world’s tropical forests covering 17.6M km2 contain

428Gt carbon in vegetation and soils. It is estimated that about60Gt carbon is exchanged between terrestrial ecosystems and theatmosphere every year, with a net terrestrial uptake of 0.7±1.0Gt. However, land use, land-use change, and forestry(LULUCF) activities, mainly tropical deforestation, are alsosignificant net sources of carbon dioxide, accounting for 1.6GtC/yr of anthropogenic emissions (IPCC, 2007; Watson et al.2000).

Source: National Consultation Workshop, PCARRD, 2009.


Tropical forests have the largest potential to mitigate climatechange among the world’s forests through (a) conservation ofexisting carbon pools (e.g., reduced impact logging); (b)expansion of carbon sinks (e.g., reforestation, agroforestry), and(c) substitution of wood products for fossil fuels. In tropical Asia,it is estimated that forestation, agroforestry, regeneration, andavoided deforestation activities have the potential to sequester7.50, 2.03, 3.8-7.7, and 3.3-5.8 billion tC between 1995 and2050 (Brown et al., 1996). Recently, there has been aprogressive accumulation of new information in the Philippinesbased on field studies, the findings of which are synthesizedbelow.

Carbon Stocks of Philippine FCarbon Stocks of Philippine FCarbon Stocks of Philippine FCarbon Stocks of Philippine FCarbon Stocks of Ph ilippine Forestorestorestorestorestand Other Ecosystemsand Other Ecosystemsand Other Ecosystemsand Other Ecosystemsand Other Ecosystems

The Philippines has a total of about 16 M ha of forest lands.Primary dipterocarp forests cover 0.8 M ha. They are the richestterrestrial biodiversity resource of the country. The IPCC defaultvalues for closed-canopy forests in the Philippines is equivalentto 165-260 tC/ha based on 50% carbon content (Houghton etal., 1997). There are limited data available on carbon stocks ofpine, mossy, and mangrove forests. As expected, they havegenerally lower carbon stocks than dipterocarp forests (90-184tC/ha). Secondary forests are the most dynamic andeconomically important forest types in the Philippines (Lasco etal., 2001). Studies have estimated that secondary forests havecarbon stocks ranging from 118 to 306 tC/ha (Appendix Table3).

To rehabilitate denuded grassland areas, the government ispromoting the establishment of tree plantations as well aspermanent reforestation activities. Usually fast growing treespecies such as Gmelina arborea, Acacia mangium, andPterocarpus indicus are planted. The exact area of rehabilitateduplands is not known, but has been estimated at 600,000 ha.Harvesting is allowed in tree plantations by private individualsand groups but not in government reforestation projects.Numerous data are now available on the carbon density of treeplantations, the mean estimate being 59 tC/ha (AppendixTable 3).


Agroforestry is widely promoted to help stabilize uplandfarms in sloping areas. There is a great variety of agroforestrysystems ranging from alley cropping to multistory systems.Consequently, there is also a wide range of carbon stocks foundin these systems (1.7-113 tC/ha) with some agroforestry farmssuch as alley cropping having little biomass carbon. Brushlandsare those forest areas that have been severely degraded so thatthere is less than 10% cover. Little information is available oncarbon stocks in these areas. Grasslands cover a substantial area ofthe country as a result of severe degradation from farming andgrazing. They have a much lower biomass carbon stocks,estimated at 29 tC/ha.

Rate of Carbon SequestrationRate of Carbon SequestrationRate of Carbon SequestrationRate of Carbon SequestrationRate of Carbon Sequestration

The rate of carbon sequestration of the various land usesvaries from 0.9 tC/ha/yr for natural forests to 17.5 tC/ha/yr forfast growing tree plantations (Appendix Table 4). While someinformation has been gathered in recent years, there are stilllimited data on carbon sequestration compared to carbon stocks.This is because carbon stocks can be easily calculated usingallometric equations (mainly from Brown, 1997). In contrast,biomass change and carbon sequestration require long-termmonitoring. Estimation may be easier in tree plantations, becausethe year of establishment is usually known, than in native forests.

Reliance on allometric equations derived from literaturefrom other countries also has limitations. Biomass estimates fromallometric equations seem to be higher than that fromdestructive sampling (Lasco et al., 2000). This is assumingdestructive sampling is more accurate than the use of equations.Thus, one of the most urgent research needs in the future is todevelop allometric equations specific to Philippine forest types.

National Greenhouse Gas InventoriesNational Greenhouse Gas InventoriesNational Greenhouse Gas InventoriesNational Greenhouse Gas InventoriesNational Greenhouse Gas Inventories

To determine the contribution of land use change andforestry (LUCF), activities involving greenhouse gas emissions orsinks, the IPCC has developed guidelines for the national


inventory of greenhouse gases emitted and absorbed by forestland (the latest version is in IPCC, 2006). This is to helpstandardize the methods of all Parties to the UNFCCC in theconduct of their inventories.

Compilation of the greenhouse gas inventory in thePhilippines started as early as November 1991 (Francisco, 1997).The most recent inventory is that of 1994 as contained in the1999 Philippines Initial National Communication. Table 7compares the results of the 1994 inventory with two previousinventories, using 1990 as base year. It will be noted that theLUCF sector turned from a huge net source of greenhouse gasesto a slight sink in the latest inventory. Such dramatic shift in theLUCF is not unique to the Philippines. A recent analysis of theUNFCCC Secretariat revealed that the LUCF estimates of othercountries have varied widely over the years (Ravindranath et al.,2001).

Table 7. Total emissions from the LUCF sector of thePhilippines (Gg CO

2equivalent)

Source 1990 inventoryby the US Country Studies Program (Francisco, 1997)

1990 inventoryby the ALGAS

project (ADB, 1998)

1994 inventory as contained in the

Philippines Initial National

Communication, 1999

Change i n forests and biomass stocks

-48654 2622 -68323

Forest and grassland conversion

120738 80069 68197

Abandonment of managed lands

-1331 -1331 Not determined

Net emissions 70753 81360 -126 Total Philippine emissions

128,620 164,103 100,738

Proport ion of total Philippine emissions (%)

55.01 49.58 -0.13


The estimates derived by the US Country Studies Programdiffer from the latest inventory primarily because of emissionsfrom land conversion. This is due to the much higherdeforestation rate used in the 1990 inventory compared to the1994 inventory. The ALGAS estimates are unique in that changein biomass stocks is a net source rather than a net sink.

On the basis of the new data in Appendix Tables 4 and 5,the greenhouse gas uptake and emissions using the 1996 IPCCRevised Guidelines were recalculated using the same methodused in earlier inventories (Lasco and Pulhin, 2003). Acomparison of the results reveals that the LUCF sector is asignificant net sink (-105 Mt CO

2equivalent) in this calculation,

which is based on 1997-1998 land cover data. It is a much highernet sink compared to the 1994 inventory (-0.126 Mt CO2

equivalent) (Table 8). This finding is also consistent with,although a little lower than, our previous calculation (142 MtCO

2equivalent) (Lasco and Pulhin, 2001). This shows that with

availability of more data, it becomes possible to refine estimatesof the contribution of LUCF to national greenhouse gasemission.

Total LUCF sector sequestration is almost equal to the totalnet greenhouse gas emission of the Philippines from all sources(101 Mt in 1994). This shows the importance of Philippineforests in climate change mitigation — they absorb practically allthe fossil fuel emissions of the country.

Table 8. Comparison of greenhouse gas emissions and sinksfrom the LUCF sector in the Philippines between the1994 and two 1997-1998 inventories

Source CO2 equ ivalent (M ton), from 1994 Inventory (Philippine NC, 1999)

1997-98 Inventory

(Lasco and Pulhin 2001)

1997-98 Inventory*

Biomass growth -111

-222 -218

Harvests 42 31 27 On site and of f site burning 36 23 43 Decay 33 23 40 Net Absorption -0.126 -142 -107

* These values were calculated by the authors for this study. Source: Lasco and Pulhin, 2003


GapsThe experience of the Philippines in quantifying carbon

sequestration of trees and building research capability can beused by other developing countries with limited resources. Thereis no need to wait for a large research budget to makepreliminary estimates of carbon sequestration of trees in a givencountry. Scientists can start with existing biomass informationwithin the country or from other countries (such as the IPCCvalues) to gain rough estimates which can be refined later. Thisapproach can be used to highlight the importance of treeplanting in the mitigation of climate change in the country,especially among policy makers.

For capacity building programs to succeed, two ingredientsseem crucial: genuine interest by local scientists and linkage withstrategic partners, both in the North and in the South. Most ofthe early carbon sequestration research in the country was carriedout by a group of researchers and students from theEnvironmental Forestry Programme of the University of thePhilippines Los Banos. Their work started without any outsidefinancial support and was driven by local scientific interest. Later,partnerships were established with groups with similar interestfrom developed and developing countries.

Inspite of the presence of denuded lands that can bedeveloped for carbon sequestration projects, there are still veryfew projects underway. Thus far, while at least eight energyCDM projects have been registered for the Philippines, not asingle one is in forestry. This could be attributed to severalreasons. First, there was the initial hesitance of many sectors toallow forestry projects even in the pre-CDM years; this deprivedthe Philippines of valuable experience that could have been usedin CDM. Second, initial economic studies have shown thatincome from carbon credits is not sufficient to recover the costof tree planting using standard government costs. This impliesthat carbon credits are best used as a supplemental source ofincome for farmers and project developers. Third, thetransaction costs of forestry CDM projects are enormous(US$100,000 by one estimate) and could prove to be the mostsignificant barrier to project fruition. One way to overcome this


barrier is to partner with potential buyers who may be able toshoulder the upfront costs as in the case of the Laguna LakeDevelopment Authority and the World Bank project.Government institutions must also find ways to encourageproject developers by simplifying rules and regulations forforestry carbon projects.

The research community must also ensure that relevantinformation is made available to project developers. Among theknowledge gaps that need to be filled are as follows:

1. Carbon sequestration rates of Philippine trees especiallyin various agro-ecological zones of the country

2. Site-specific biomass allometric equations3. Economic analysis of forestry carbon projects4. Models of production systems (e.g., agroforestry

systems) that will optimize carbon5. Economic benefits6. Long-term carbon sequestration of trees considering the

effect of climate extremes especially typhoons

S&T PrioritiesMajor considerations for R&D, thus, emerge. First, the

Philippines has a great potential for climate change mitigationprojects in forestry. Research has shown that planted trees in thePhilippines can sequester significant amount of carbon. Second,initial economic studies have shown the income from carboncredits is not sufficient to recover the cost of tree planting (usingstandard DENR costs). This implies that carbon credits are bestused as a supplemental source of income for farmers and projectdevelopers. Third, the transaction costs of forestry CDM projectsare enormous (US$100,000 by one estimate) and could proveto be the most significant barrier to project fruition. One way toovercome this barrier is to partner with a potential buyer whomay be able to shoulder the upfront costs. Fourth, governmentinstitutions particularly the Forest Management Bureau (FMB) ofDENR must find ways to encourage project developers bysimplifying rules and regulations for forestry carbon projects. Asit is, forestry projects have few takers because of its complexityand high transaction costs.


The research community must also ensure that relevantinformation is made available to project developers. Knowledgegaps that need to be filled include the following:

1. Technological innovations that will create synergybetween adaptation and mitigation in forestry, and suitcertain forest typologies and land characteristics

2. Institutional approach/mechanisms on the ground (localor community level)

3. Economic viability of forestry carbon developmentprojects

4. Potential carbon sequestration rates of Philippine forestrycarbon development (e.g., agroforestation system -purely tree establishment and agroforestry farm),especially in various agro-ecological zones of thecountry;

5. Models of project schemes (e.g., purely treeestablishment and agroforestry farm development) suitedfor a certain/present forest area typologies and landcover characteristics that will optimize economic benefits,carbon sequestration, and other environmental services(e.g., watershed rehabilitation and habitat restoration forbiodiversity consideration)

On the National ScaleOn the National ScaleOn the National ScaleOn the National ScaleOn the National Scale

1. It is necessary to have a baseline information of the statusof forest resources (forest cover and land use) in thePhilippines, especially reported status as of 1989.

2. There is a need for guidelines and policy support for theimplementation of forestry carbon development projectswhich includes land use planning (e.g., delineation/mapping) at field (municipal to provincial) level offorest areas for rehabilitation, production, conservation,and protection.

3. There is a need to assess the forestry sector’s contributionto the national GHG emissions and sinks using the new2006 IPCC guidelines.


POLICY

State-of- the-Art

AdaptationTo date, there has been little consideration of an overall

climate change adaptation strategy and options for thePhilippine forest ecosystems. The 1999 Philippines InitialNational Communication contains adaptation options forwatershed management that partly apply to forest ecosystems.These are mainly contained in the laws and policies governingthe use and conservation of forest resources in the Philippines.

1. Presidential Decree 705 of 1975 (Revised Forestry Codeof the Philippines) embodies the general mandate of theConstitution in managing and conserving forestresources.

2. DENR Administrative Order No. 24 Series of 1991promulgates the shift of logging from old-growth foreststo secondary (residual) forests, effective as of 1992. Priorto this, logging was confined to old-growth forests.

3. Republic Act No 7586 or the National IntegratedProtected Areas Systems (NIPAS) Act of 1992 stipulatesthat the management, protection, sustainabledevelopment, and rehabilitation of protected areas shallbe undertaken primarily to ensure the conservation ofbiological diversity. However, not all of the remainingnatural forests are covered by NIPAS. All remaining old-growth forests are protected but logging is still allowedin secondary forests.

4. Republic Act No 8371 or the Indigenous Peoples’ RightsAct of 1997 recognizes the vested rights of indigenouspeoples over their ancestral lands within forestlands,including secondary forest. The implementing guidelinesof this law are still being finalized.


5. Executive Order 363 of 1995 adopts community-basedforest management (CBFM) as a national strategy toensure the sustainable development of the country’sforests and to promote social justice.

6. Executive Order 318 of 2004 on ‘Promoting SustainableForest Management in the Philippines’ is an attempt torevise Presidential Decree 705 and aims to attainsustainable forest management in the country’sproduction forests.

All of the above provide the overall framework for climatechange adaptation in the Philippines. Watershed management,forest conservation, and greater local community participationare strategies that could also contribute towards climate changeadaptation. For example, protecting existing forests allows fornatural adjustment to a new climate regime. Greater localcommunity involvement could minimize the financial cost foradaptation of state agencies.

In terms of actual activities on the ground, the governmenthas been actively pursuing several initiatives in spite of its limitedresources. These include the following:

1. Conservation of remaining forests in NIPAS sites andwatershed areas

2. Reforestation and rehabilitation of barren upland areasthrough tree planting

and agroforestry3. Community-based forestry activities such as community

organizing and development

The private sector is less involved today compared to theirinvolvement during the height of logging activities in the 1950sand 1960s. However, civil society is more involved ascommunity-based programs increase.

The incorporation of climate change concerns in planning forforest resources is unfortunately not yet a priority in thegovernment. The more urgent concern is the protection ofremaining forests from human exploitation, which is viewed as


the more imminent threat. However, the incorporation ofclimate change concerns early on in the planning process couldhelp avert some of the negative impacts and improve the copingcapacity of forest ecosystems. As shown earlier by the results ofour analysis based on the Holdridge life zone system, certainforest types in the Philippines especially the dry forest types arehighly vulnerable. They could be entirely replaced by othertypes of forests in the future. The laws and regulationsmentioned above may, therefore, need to be reassessed andupdated to focus more on how forest management can beimproved to mitigate climate change impacts. Special focuscould be given to areas classified as dry forests such as those inNorthern Luzon, Negros, Cebu, Palawan, Basilan, and GeneralSantos.

In this light, a national adaptation strategy should probablyfocus on identifying forested areas that are more at risk and theunique species they harbor. Specific adaptation options couldinclude conservation and management of vulnerable species andassisting local communities that are highly dependent on forestsat risk among others.

Mitigation

Pursuant to Executive Order No. 192 dated 10 June 1987,DENR acts as the primary government agency responsible forthe conservation, management, development, and proper use ofthe country’s environment and natural resources. As thedesignated national authority for CDM in the Philippines, theDENR supports policies and measures that protect the climatesystem against human-induced change appropriate to thespecific conditions of the State. DENR facilitates and promotesCDM project activities that (a) contribute to the UNFCCCobjective, (b) lead to the transfer of environmentally safe andsound technology and know-how, (c) contribute to theconservation of biological diversity and sustainable use ofnatural resources, (d) comply with all other pertinent laws andregulations, and (e) provide measures to alleviate poverty as


Priority S&T Areas in the Forestry SectorR & D PRIORITIES 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Vulnerability assessment of forestland areas using latest available climate scenario models, biophysica l, and socio-economic inform ation Identification of available adaptat ion and mitigation strategies for the forestry sector Identification of existing po licies and institutional arrang em ents that facilitate science-based decision m aking Setting up of perm anent plots in identified priorit y vulnerable forestry areas and monitoring of critical biot ic and abiotic as well as socio-economic indicators of climate change in the forest areas Development of new and verifying existing, and implementing appropriate adaptation and m itigation strategies in prioritized vulnerable forestry areas Policy advocacy and inst itutional arrangements that would facilitate science-based decision m aking on m ainstreaming adaptation and m itigation strategies Integration o f IEC, ICT, and technical and inf rastructure development to enable the science community to (a) assess vulnerability and impact of climate change on the forestry sector, (b) develop appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies, and (c) popularize science-based decisions

part of their contribution to sustainable development. All theseare geared towards the realization of its vision of “a nationenjoying and sustaining its natural resources and a clean andhealthy environment.”

Source: Forestry and Environment Research Division, PCARRD, 2009.


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81S&T AGENDA ON WATER RESOURCES SECTOR

S&T AGENDA ONWATER RESOURCESSECTOR

VULNERABILITY AND IMPACT ASSESSMENTClimate change and climate variability are expected to have

profound effects and impacts on the hydrology of an area aswell as on the spatial and temporal distr ibution of waterresources. The disproportionate increase in the mean level andin the variability of hydrologic variables such as rainfall andstream flows will lead to more frequent occurrence of extremehydrologic and climatic events including intense rainfall, strongtyphoons, and severe droughts. These can threaten water andfood security especially in marginal and vulnerable areas.Climate change is expected to alter the hydrologic regime in anarea, which will affect the availability of water resources in timeand also in space (IPCC, 2007; GWSP, 2005; Vörösmarty et al.,2004; Alcamo et al., 2002).

Reliable access to and dependable supply of water resourceshave direct impacts on the viability and sustainability ofagriculture. A dependable water supply is an important factor inagricultural production systems. Sustainable crop productionsystem is dependent on available water for irrigation. Thehydrologic integrity of watershed determines the dependabilityof water supply throughout the crop-growing season (Lansiganet al., 2008).

The 1970-1980 decade saw the development of severalwater resources projects implemented through the constructionof dams and reservoirs, including irrigation systems, throughoutthe country. This was mainly due to increasing population andrapid urban expansion. These two factors resulted in sharp


increases in water demands for domestic and industrial uses,exerting pressure on the limited water supply. The engineeringapproach to water resources development faced manylimitations due to financial constraints including problems inoperations and maintenance of facilities.

In the Philippines, innovative strategies towards improvingwater use efficiency of existing water systems have beenexplored. These include the rehabilitation of existing irrigationfacilities, introduction of volumetric water pricing to encourageefficient water use, and promoting participatory irrigationmanagement (Lansigan et al., 2008). However, thedependability and sustainability of water resources arethreatened by changing climate since the temporal and spatialdistributions are being altered. Thus, these changes put pressureon water resources and lead to competition among variouswater uses.

State-of-the-Art

Government policies have defined priority uses for waterresources: for power and energy generation, irrigation,industrial, municipal, and domestic uses. Water resources are alsoneeded for ecological services to maintain the integrity andbalance of ecosystems. As water resources become limited, andtheir distributions altered by climate change, competitionbetween various water uses is inevitable. Thus, relevant policieson water resources allocation including water pricing andconsideration of providing environmental flows in ecosystemsare important issues and challenges that need to be addressed.

A challenging issue is how changing climate and climatevariability affect water scarcity. Climate impact studies alsoemphasize effect on water availability and water stressconsidering the various water demands and uses. Water scarcityin watersheds often leads to a situation where water forirrigation is allocated for other purposes such as domestic andindustrial uses. Thus, agriculture such as crop production is oftensacrificed in favor of more pressing needs for water. It isanticipated that pressure on water resources and competition for


water will become even much greater in the near future (2025)as population increases tremendously. A country’s ability to copewith increasing pressure on its water resources depends much onwhether it will experience physical or economic water scarcity(IWMI, 2000; Cosgrave and Rijsberman, 2000).

Three plausible scenarios (Cosgrave and Rijsberman, 2000)may be considered in the analysis of water scarcity, and they arediscussed below.

1. “Business-as-usual” scenario - assumes essentially acontinuation of current policies on resources use andmanagement and extrapolation of trend.

2. “Technology, economics, and private sector investment”scenario - involves private sector initiatives in researchand development, and assumes that globalization driveseconomic growth but the poorest countries are leftbehind.

3. “Values and lifestyles change” scenario - assumessustainable development with emphasis on research anddevelopment in the poorest countries. Under thisscenario, water and food scarcity in the poorest countrieswill be limited.

Water stress and scarcity may be evaluated using differentplausible indicators of comparing supply and demand. Earlierstudies showed that water scarcity can be analyzed usingdifferent water stress indices (Alcamo et al., 2002), namely:

(a) Water withdrawal-to-availability (WTA) ratio whereWTA = Annual Withdrawal/Annual Available WaterResources, with 0 < WTA < 1

(b) Water consumption-to-availability (CTA) ratio whereCTA = Annual Consumption/ Annual Available WaterResources, with 0 < CTA < 1

(c) Water availability-per-capita (WAPC) ratio where WAPC= Annual Available Water Resources / Population Count,with WAPC > 0


Water withdrawal refers to the total water withdrawn foranthropogenic water uses (irrigation, domestic, and industrial).Water consumption is water withdrawal that is used but notreturned to the general source of the withdrawal (Alcamo et al.,2002). Water indices WTA and CTA account for various wateruses such as domestic, industrial, and agriculture. Water stressoccurs when either WTA is greater than 0.40; CTA exceeds 0.20;WAPC is less than 1,000 cu.m. per capita (severe water stress); orwhen WAPC ratio is between 1,000 and 1,700 cu.m per capita(mild water stress).

These indices were also used to assess water stress or scarcityin different water resources regions in the Philippines for threetime periods (2010, 2015, and 2025) considering populationforecasts based on current population growth rate (Lansigan,2009). Water resources availability for each region wasevaluated for 50% and 80% dependability levels. Resultsshowed that different indices yield varying degrees of waterscarcity in different areas that may likely experience water stressin the coming years represented by the three scenarios.

It should be noted that the analyses using the different waterstress indices assumed that total water resources available remainsrelatively the same. Changes due to socio-economic drivers (e.g.,population increase, economic growth, technological advances)may bring about change in water withdrawals (Alcamo et al.,2002). While uncertainty exists on the future distributions andalso uses of water resources, the years 2010, 2015, and 2025were selected only to represent future conditions under the‘business-as-usual’ scenario for different time periods.Nevertheless, the analysis provides information on the extent orgeographical coverage and magnitude of water stress expectedin the Philippines.

GapsData and information regarding the vulnerability, effects,

and impacts of climate change on hydrologic variability in thePhilippines are very limited. Most studies done are for some


selected watersheds and/or water resources systems. Thefollowing are some of the data, information, and knowledgegaps that need to be addressed:

1 .1 .1 .1 .1 . Observed local needs for better and reliable dataObserved local needs for better and reliable dataObserved local needs for better and reliable dataObserved local needs for better and reliable dataObserved local needs for better and reliable datafor adaptive strategyfor adaptive strategyfor adaptive strategyfor adaptive strategyfor adaptive strategy

Reliable hydrologic data and information are needed to beable to develop and implement science-based adaptationstrategies. These include updating of frequency analysis ofhydrologic variables and estimation of recurrence interval orreturn periods of events related to hydrologic cycles includingextreme events.

2 .2.2 .2.2. Understanding climate projections and theirUnderstanding climate projections and theirUnderstanding climate projections and theirUnderstanding climate projections and theirUnderstanding climate projections and theirimpacts from global to local and watershedimpacts from global to local and watershedimpacts from global to local and watershedimpacts from global to local and watershedimpacts from global to local and watershedlevelslevelslevelslevelslevels

Most of the climate change projections as well as assessmentof impacts on various sectors are based on global climatescenarios. While some global climate scenarios have beendownscaled to plausible regional climate projections, theseprojections have to be further downscaled to local climatescenarios to facilitate the development of more effective andefficient adaptation measures.

3 .3.3 .3.3. Impacts of climate change on hydrologic Impacts of climate change on hydrologic Impacts of climate change on hydrologic Impacts of climate change on hydrologic Impacts of climate change on hydrologicvariability to water resources availabilityvariability to water resources availabilityvariability to water resources availabilityvariability to water resources availabilityvariability to water resources availability

There is still need to evaluate and determine the effects andimpacts of climate variability on hydrologic variability. Includedhere are the shifts and alterations of hydrologic regimes inwatersheds as well as their implications to water resourcesavailability to local administrative units (e.g., local level such asprovince and municipality).


4 .4.4 .4.4 . Improved understanding of sources ofImproved understanding of sources ofImproved understanding of sources ofImproved understanding of sources ofImproved understanding of sources ofuncertainty in modeling climate variabilityuncertainty in modeling climate variabilityuncertainty in modeling climate variabilityuncertainty in modeling climate variabilityuncertainty in modeling climate variability

Studies on vulnerability assessment and effects and impactsof climate variability are often based on climate scenarios thatmay likely happen and on simulation models. Sources ofuncertainty other than the defined climate scenarios and modelsused are not taken into account. For example, the adaptivecapacity of stakeholders is often not considered.

5 .5.5 .5.5 . Downscaling of medium-term forecasts andDownscaling of medium-term forecasts andDownscaling of medium-term forecasts andDownscaling of medium-term forecasts andDownscaling of medium-term forecasts andseasonal climate outlookseasonal climate outlookseasonal climate outlookseasonal climate outlookseasonal climate outlook

While seasonal climate three to six months in advance cannow be predicted with reasonable accuracy, its utility to guidelocal adaptation strategies depends on how these forecasts canbe downscaled or translated down to the provincial level at theleast. Several approaches including statistical and probabilisticmethods and use of available local weather datasets should beexplored to develop local forecasts based on global and regionalseasonal climate outlook.

6 .6.6 .6.6 . Mismatch of scales of climate models withMismatch of scales of climate models withMismatch of scales of climate models withMismatch of scales of climate models withMismatch of scales of climate models withwatershed models for water managementwatershed models for water managementwatershed models for water managementwatershed models for water managementwatershed models for water management

Simulation models are often used to study climate changeand its effects and impacts on water resources at the watershedlevel. An interface should be developed that links climatemodel with watershed model. Climate models with higherresolutions, which account for adequate land-surface propertiesand interactions, are needed to be able to evaluate the effects ofclimate at the watershed level. Use of statistical and physically-based downscaling approaches may be helpful.


7 .7.7 .7.7. Improved methods to better assess the impactsImproved methods to better assess the impactsImproved methods to better assess the impactsImproved methods to better assess the impactsImproved methods to better assess the impactsof changing climate variability on freshwaterof changing climate variability on freshwaterof changing climate variability on freshwaterof changing climate variability on freshwaterof changing climate variability on freshwaterresourcesresourcesresourcesresourcesresour ces

There is a need for effective and efficient methods andtechniques to better evaluate the effects and impacts of climatechange on freshwater ecosystems.

8 .8.8 .8.8. Inadequate understanding of the impacts ofInadequate understanding of the impacts ofInadequate understanding of the impacts ofInadequate understanding of the impacts ofInadequate understanding of the impacts ofclimate change on aquatic ecosystemsclimate change on aquatic ecosystemsclimate change on aquatic ecosystemsclimate change on aquatic ecosystemsclimate change on aquatic ecosystems

There is inadequate understanding of the impacts of climatechange on aquatic ecosystems not only due to temperatureincrease but also due to the changes in flow regimes and waterlevels. Studies on effects and impacts of climate change on waterregimes in aquatic ecosystems including the effects on coastalresources and distributions are very limited.

9 .9.9 .9.9. Socio-economic aspects of climate changeSocio-economic aspects of climate changeSocio-economic aspects of climate changeSocio-economic aspects of climate changeSocio-economic aspects of climate changeimpacts on water resourcesimpacts on water resourcesimpacts on water resourcesimpacts on water resourcesimpacts on water resources

Considering the various water demands for different uses,the socio-economics of climate change impacts on waterresources are only being studied recently. These are needed togenerate information on cost-effective adaptation measuresconsidering other uses of limited available water resources withcompeting uses.

10.10.10.10.10.Climate change and water stress or scarcity atClimate change and water stress or scarcity atClimate change and water stress or scarcity atClimate change and water stress or scarcity atClimate change and water stress or scarcity atthe national and provincial levelsthe national and provincial levelsthe national and provincial levelsthe national and provincial levelsthe national and provincial levels

Studies on water stress and scarcity for different scenarioshave been done at the global level (Alcamo et al., 2004;Vörösmarty et al., 2006). Data and information on waterscarcity at national and provincial levels are needed to developan optimal or reasonable strategy to address water stress at locallevel. A number of indicators to be used may also be explored.Plausible scenarios of water demands and uses and resourcesdevelopment, together with socio-economic development andtechnological advances may be considered.


S&T Priorities

ResearchResearchResearchResearchResearch

Adaptation strategies can be formulated from good practicesincluding indigenous technologies, which can be evaluated fortechnical soundness, cost-effectiveness, and social acceptability.Some priority research and development activities that need tobe supported are discussed below.

1. Studies on downscaling climate scenarios and1. Studies on downscaling climate scenarios and1. Studies on downscaling climate scenarios and1. Studies on downscaling climate scenarios and1. Studies on downscaling climate scenarios andprojections at national levelprojections at national levelprojections at national levelprojections at national levelprojections at national level

This involves the translation of global or regional climatescenarios to reasonable climate projections for the Philippines, oreven, for the provincial level. Statistical procedures including useof available historical weather and climate data sets and also theadvances in science and technology (e.g., informationtechnology, space technology) may be used.

Development and application of robust procedures fordownscaling seasonal climate forecasts are useful in establishingefficient early warning system. And this may be done at the locallevel based on medium-term forecasts coupled with localobservations from gauging stations.

2. Ef fects of climate change on hydrologic2. Effects of climate change on hydrologic2. Ef fects of climate change on hydrologic2. Effects of climate change on hydrologic2. Effects of climate change on hydrologicvariability including extreme eventsvariability including extreme eventsvariability including extreme eventsvariability including extreme eventsvariability including extreme events

Shifts in hydrologic regimes of watersheds exhibited inhydrographs have to be evaluated. Frequency of occurrence ofextreme events under climate change has to be determined. Thishas direct implications on the updating of design standards forengineering structures such as drainage system, roads, and floodcontrol structures, among others.


3 .3.3 .3.3. Dependability of water supply from differentDependability of water supply f rom differentDependability of water supply from differentDependability of water supply f rom differentDependability of water supply from dif ferentmajor watershedsmajor watershedsmajor watershedsmajor watershedsmajor watersheds

Dependability of water supply from different watershedsand different geographical areas in the country has to beevaluated in the light of significant land use and land coverchanges in the last three to four decades. The evaluation andassessment of water supply should make use of advances inscience and technology. While water resources potentials in thecountry are analyzed by hydrological regions, appropriateestimation procedures should be used to come up with estimatesof water resources available in each administrative unit (e.g.,region or province).

4. Impacts of climate change on water resources4. Impacts of climate change on water resources4. Impacts of climate change on water resources4. Impacts of climate change on water resources4. Impacts of climate change on water resourcesscarcityscarcityscarcityscarcityscarcity

Impacts of climate change on water resources scarcity fordifferent uses based on annual and monthly demand and supplyshould consider changes in seasonal patterns and extreme eventsin an area. Most studies done in the past involved analysis ofwater supply and demand on an annual basis which may notaccount for the temporal dimension.

5. Coupled climate and land-use modeling to5. Coupled climate and land-use modeling to5. Coupled climate and land-use modeling to5. Coupled climate and land-use modeling to5. Coupled climate and land-use modeling toaccount for feedbacks between land use andaccount for feedbacks between land use andaccount for feedbacks between land use andaccount for feedbacks between land use andaccount for feedbacks between land use andclimate changeclimate changeclimate changeclimate changeclimate change

Rational watershed management and land use planning thatconsider climate change involve the evaluation and assessmentof land use activities under different climate scenarios. This canbe facilitated with the use of climate model linked withwatershed model that considers land surface properties andinteractions.


6. Development of indicators of climate change6. Development of indicators of climate change6. Development of indicators of climate change6. Development of indicators of climate change6. Development of indicators of climate changeimpacts on freshwaterimpacts on freshwaterimpacts on freshwaterimpacts on freshwaterimpacts on freshwater

There is a need for research to develop other indicators thatmay be used to evaluate climate impacts on freshwaterecosystems. These indicators will be useful for monitoring andassessment studies.

77777 ..... Consideration of “green water” and “blueConsideration of “green water” and “blueConsideration of “green water” and “blueConsideration of “green water” and “blueConsideration of “green water” and “bluewater” in water resources evaluationwater” in water resources evaluationwater” in water resources evaluationwater” in water resources evaluationwater” in water resources evaluation

Water resources assessment should consider all availablewater resources and their re-use including “green water” (soilwater originating from rainfall) and also “blue water” (surfaceand groundwater). It is noted that rainfed agriculture holds thegreatest potential for increasing yields in view of closing thefood gap over the coming decade and of reducing poverty(Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management inAgriculture, 2007).

8. T8. T8. T8. T8. Techniques and prechniques and prechniques and prechniques and prechniques and procedures to communicateocedures to communicateocedures to communicateocedures to communicateocedures to communicateresults of probabilistic approaches for riskresults of probabilistic approaches for riskresults of probabilistic approaches for riskresults of probabilistic approaches for riskresults of probabilistic approaches for riskanalysis by end-usersanalysis by end-usersanalysis by end-usersanalysis by end-usersanalysis by end-users

Innovative methods should be developed to facilitate theuse of results generated from researches useful in formulatingknowledge-based adaptation measures. For example,information on seasonal climate forecasts and projections maybe translated into layman’s terms to facilitate betterunderstanding and application.

9. Exploring applicability of weather index-based9. Exploring applicability of weather index-based9. Exploring applicability of weather index-based9. Exploring applicability of weather index-based9. Exploring applicability of weather index-basedadaptation measuresadaptation measuresadaptation measuresadaptation measuresadaptation measures

Other adaptation measures such as agri-insurance are nowbeing studied and piloted making use of weather indices.Efficiency and effectiveness of weather index-based measuresmay be evaluated as risk-sharing mechanism in agriculture.


PPPPPolicies and Institutionsolicies and Institu tionsolicies and Institutionsolicies and Institu tionsolicies and Institutions

Mainstreaming climate change adaptation in localgovernment planning and operations requires adequate policysupport and institutional infrastructure for their successfulimplementation. The following are priority needs for policiesand institutional support:

1. Need for policy to develop local-scale datasets1. Need for policy to develop local-scale datasets1. Need for policy to develop local-scale datasets1. Need for policy to develop local-scale datasets1. Need for policy to develop local-scale datasetsand simple model or protocoland simple model or protocoland simple model or protocoland simple model or protocoland simple model or protocol

This should consider the use of climate models linked withwatershed model that will enable evaluation of systemsvulnerability to climate variability. This involves simpleindicators that are easily understood and measured, andanalytical procedures that are readily applied.

2. Assessment of impacts on water resources2. Assessment of impacts on water resources2. Assessment of impacts on water resources2. Assessment of impacts on water resources2. Assessment of impacts on water resourcesquantity and qualityquantity and qualityquantity and qualityquantity and qualityquantity and quality

Considering different climate proofing interventions anddevelopment initiatives, as well as water re-use, impacts ofclimate change on water resources quantity and quality shouldbe done. This will also involve the development of newassessment procedures and indicators to include the ecologicalstatus of water resources systems.

3. Establishment of an early warning system at local3. Establishment of an early warning system at local3. Establishment of an early warning system at local3. Establishment of an early warning system at local3. Establishment of an early warning system at locallevellevellevellevellevel

This consists of cost-effective instrumentation set-up (e.g.,automatic weather station), procedures and protocols for dataand information collection and dissemination, mobilization ofstakeholders, and appropriate decision-support system fordecision-makers at the LGU level.


4. Risk sharing mechanism using weather index-4. Risk sharing mechanism using weather index-4. Risk sharing mechanism using weather index-4. Risk sharing mechanism using weather index-4. Risk sharing mechanism using weather index-based agri-insurancebased agr i- insurancebased agri-insurancebased agr i- insurancebased agri- insurance

Other sound strategies to distribute or share climate risks inagricultural production should also be explored. For example,the weather-based agri-insurance schemes provide an objectiverisk-sharing arrangement. However, their effectiveimplementation requires that institutional or local support andincentives (e.g., tax credits or exemption) be extended toproviders of agri-insurance products.

RESPONSE MECHANISMS

A suite of response mechanisms or strategies are critical inaddressing climate change impacts in the AFNR sectors, ingeneral, and in water resources sector, in particular. These can bein terms of adaptation schemes to cope with changing climate,or mitigation measures that lower contributions to greenhousegas emissions.

Adaptation

1. Early warning system is an effective strategy to adapt tothe impacts of climate change particularly to the waterresources-related processes and hydrologic variables suchrainfall, stream flows, floodwaters, etc. This involves theuse of short- to medium-term weather forecasts andclimate projections based on local observationalnetworks and available historical data plus considerationof current global and regional seasonal climate outlook.

2. Reliable seasonal climate forecasts downscaled to aprovince are useful information for making appropriateadaptation measures at the local level. This informationcan be used as part of the early warning system to advisestakeholders on interventions to be done such asadjusting schedule of crop production activities, timingand dosage of irrigation, and related activities. Short-


term seasonal climate forecasts can also be used as inputsto knowledge-based crop forecasting system to providereasonable estimates of crop yields under the expectedseasonal outlook (Lansigan, et al., 2008).

3. While climate change is expected to alter the hydrologicregimes in an area, and also result to thedisproportionate increase in the mean level and varianceof hydrologic variables, there are no reliable projectionsof future changes in hydrologic processes. Nevertheless,adoption of water-efficient technologies and goodpractices , e.g. improving water-use efficiency and water-demand management, are no-regrets options to addressclimate change. Thus, it is always beneficial to promotestrategies or measures to improve water management.

4. Science-based operational policy for hydropower damsand reservoirs are needed to manage and operate thewater resources system control structures incorporatingclimate change risks, and considering the multiple uses ofsuch structures. Updating of operation rule curve may beimperative in the light of increased frequency ofoccurrence of more intense extreme hydrologic events.

Mitigation1. Wastewater management and water reuse need to be

further studied and quantified in the context of waterscarcity assessment. Measures to reuse water resourceswill contribute to lessen water stress.

2. Improving irrigation and fertilization strategies inagricultural crop production systems may reduce carbondioxide emissions from energy systems to deliver theirrigation water, and nitrous oxide emissions throughproper timing and dosage of inputs (Wassmann et al.,2000; Wassmann, 2008).


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and scenario analysis. In: Rijsberman, F. (Ed.) World Water Scenarios.Earthscan Publications, 243-281.

Alcamo, J., P. Döll, T. Henrichs, F. Kaspar, B. Lehner, T. Rösch, and S. Siebert. 2003.Global estimates of water withdrawals and availability under current and future“business-as-usual” conditions. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 48 (3), 339-348.

Bates, B., Z.W. Kundzewics, S. Wu, and J.P. Palutikot (Eds.). 2008. Climate Change andWater. IPCC Technical Report VI. IPCC Secretariat, Geneva, 210 pp.

Cosgrave, W.J. and F.R. Rijsberman, 2000. World water vision: making watereverybody’s business. World Water Council.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2007). Fourth AssessmentReport. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.

International Water Management Institute. 2000. Water issues for 2025: A researchperspective. Colombo.

Lansigan, F.P. 2009. Frequency analysis of extreme hydrologic events and assessmentof water stress in a changing c limate in the Philippines. pp. 497-501. In:Taniguchi, M., W.C. Burnett, Y. Fukushima, M. Haigh, and Y. Umezawa(Eds.), 2009. From Headwaters to the Ocean: Hydrological Changes andWatershed Management. CRC Press, Taylor and Francis Group. Leiden, TheNetherlands. 679 pp.

Vörösmarty, C.,P., J. Green, J. Salisbutry, and R. Lammers, 2000.Global waterresources: Vulnerability from climate change and population growth. Science,289, 284-288.

Vörösmarty, C., D. Lettenmaier, C. Leveque, M. Meybeck, C.Pahl-Wostl, J. Alcamo, W.Cosgrove, H. Grassl, H. Hoff, C. Jaeger, P. Kabat, F. Lansigan, H. Lins, R.Lawford, R. Naiman, and M. Niasse. 2004. Humans transforming the globalwater system. Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union (AGU), v. 85,no.48, 30 Nov 2004, pp. 509-520.

Wassmann R., L.V. Buendia, R.S. Lantin, C.S. Bueno, L.A. Lubigan, A. Umali, N.N.Nocon, A.M. Javellana, and H.U. Neue. 2000. Mechanisms of cropmanagement impact on methane emissions from rice fields in Los Banos,Philippines. Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems. 58: pp.23–36.

95S&T AGENDA ON POLICIES AND INSTITUTIONS

S&T AGENDA ON POLICIESAND INSTITUTIONS

State-of- the- Art 1

Climate PClimate PClimate PClimate PClimate Policiesoliciesoliciesoliciesolicies

Climate policy has to be integrated into major sectors thatcause climate change or which are affected by climate changeimpacts. The AFNR sectors are among such important sectors.The interplay of different levels of decision-making will becritical for successful climate policy. Both adaptation andmitigation concern all levels, from the local to the global, andthe interactions between levels are complex and multi-directional. While adaptation to climate change at the local levelis crucial, local adaptation measures need to be supported bynational framework. Crafting climate policies would providethe regulatory framework to guide different stakeholders in thedevelopment and implementation of effective adaptation andmitigation strategies (Perez, 2008). It also has a role in definingclimate risk management strategies to help the most vulnerable.

Philippine PPhilippine PPhilippine PPhilippine PPhilippine Policies on Agriculture, Folicies on Agriculture, Folicies on Agriculture, Folicies on Agriculture, Folicies on Agriculture, Forestrorestrorestrorestrorestryyyyy, and, and, and, and, andNatural Resources Natural Resources Natural Resources Natural Resources Natural Resources and their Impacts on Climateand their Impacts on Climateand their Impacts on Climateand their Impacts on Climateand their Impacts on ClimateVVVVVariabilityariabilityariabilityariabilityariability

A recent study concluded that the Philippines has afragmented climate policy at the national level (Perez, 2008).LGUs, on the other hand, are seen as having the most significant

1 This section benef ited from the papers of (a) Rosa T. Perez. 2008. A RegionalReview of the Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia (RRECCS) CountryPaper: Philippines, ADB, Manila (RETA 6427), and (b) Rodel Lasco and BerndMarkus-Liss. 2008 Climate Change Adaptation in the Philippines: A Review ofPolicies and Institutions-(An Interim Report) GTZ.


role in identifying and appropriately addressing climate changeimpacts at the local level. LGUs can adopt localized strategieswhich are appropriate in their areas.

Furthermore, Lasco and Markus-Liss (2008), in theirassessment of mainstreaming climate change impacts in theagriculture, forestry, and natural resources sector policies and thegeneral development policies in the Philippines showed the lackof recognition of these hazards. There are currently no existingpolicies or measures which directly address climate change andits impacts on the population, natural resources, andinfrastructures. However, there are a number of laws, which maynot directly deal with climate change, but could contribute instrengthening the adaptive capacity to deal with its impacts.

Indeed, the country has enough laws for managingagriculture, forestry, and natural resources — but not directed toclimatic stresses. Current laws provide for the wise use of waterresources which is largely affected by climate variability. TheAgriculture and Fisheries Modernization Act or AFMAmodernizes agriculture by designing adaptation strategies forclimate change and global trade concerns. The latestadministrative order creates a Presidential Task Force on ClimateChange (PTFCC) that can enhance institutional capacity to tackleclimate change issues.

The Philippine Climate Change Act (Republic Act 9729) wassigned into law by President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo lastOctober 23, 2009 to steer the country towards achieving aneffective response to climate change. A national climate changeaction plan would be crafted to mainstream climate change intothe government policy formulation process. The law also createsa Climate Change Commission tasked with coordinating,monitoring and evaluating programs and action plans, and willrepresent the country in international fora.


PPPPPolicies versus P lansolicies versus Plansolicies versus P lansolicies versus Plansolicies versus Plans

Consistent with the lack of climate policy statements, thePhilippines Medium Term Development Plan (2004-2010) doesnot mention specifically of climate change issues. This impliesthat the level of climate change adaptation mainstreaming in thePhilippines is still rather low. But according to Lasco and Markus-Liss (2008), the same is true for many countries in the Asia-Pacificregion and the developing world in general. Whenever climatechange is recognized, the focus has been more on mitigation.

Previous agriculture and forestry development planscontained mitigation measures only. The Medium TermAgricultural Development Plan (MTADP, 1993-1998) used theKey Production Area approach for this planning period. Underthis scheme, government support was focused on areas whereland and water resources could be put to the best use. Under thePlan, the main mitigation measures include:

a. Balanced Fertilization Program - provides locationspecific recommendation for organic and inorganicfertilizers aimed at sustaining high crop yields over longcropping seasons without depleting the natural resourcebase. It also provides guidelines for strategic distributionof appropriate fertilizers.

b. Reduction of program area for irrigated rice fieldsc. Judicious use of pesticides through Integrated Pest

Managementd. Utilization of low-water use crops

The Master Plan for Forestry Development (1990) serves asthe government’s blueprint for managing the country’s forestlands and resources. GHG mitigation measures are contained inthe following sub-programs: (a) Soil and WatershedConservation, (b) People-Oriented Forestry, (c) ForestProtection, and d) Establishment of Forest Plantation. Butbecause of the geographical location of the country, emphasis onadaptation to risks associated with current climate variability andextremes (e.g., tropical cyclones) is needed.


InstitutionsInstitutionsInstitutionsInstitutionsInstitutions

Climate change measures, particularly those on adaptation,require coordinated efforts among the different sectors ofsociety. This is recognized and demonstrated in currentinstitutions created to oversee climate change measures in thecountry such as the Inter-agency Committee on Climate Change(IACCC) and PTFCC. Other key stakeholders and institutions arealso identified and described in Table 9. But just like the currentdecentralization process, these offices have overlapping rolesand mandates.

There seems to be no synergy among the institutionsworking in the agriculture, forestry, and natural resources sector.As can be seen in Table 4, there are no clear lines of collaborationand coordination to be effective in addressing climate risks,while their roles may be distinct. National agencies and researchinstitutions should naturally work together in an integrativemanner. And this seems to be a challenge for change in thetraditional system. The local governments work in isolation dueto the absence of an overarching national institutionalframework where inter-local sharing of experiences can happen.

Climate change also implies the increasing need formonitoring, coordination, and integration across scales, sectors,and levels of decision-making. A well-balanced and integratedapproach to monitoring and decision-making is needed toprovide win-win solutions and avoid negative cross-sectoralfeedbacks of measures or non-action in one sector (World Bank,no date).

National and InternationallyNational and InternationallyNational and InternationallyNational and InternationallyNational and Internationally-Supported P-Supported P-Supported P-Supported P-Supported Prrrrrojectsojectsojectsojectsojects

In the Philippines, there have been a lot of projects, studies,and activities that tackled climate change issues and concerns(Perez, 2008). Past and current activities include disaster riskreduction designs, environmental projects, and energy efficiencymeasures that have co-benefits in strengthening adaptive


Table 9. Key stakeholders and institutions on climate changeadaptation in the Philippines

Source: Lasco and Markus-Liss , 2008

capacity and have contributed to mitigation efforts. Most of theprojects financed by GEF focus more on the mitigation of GHGemissions. Some are enabling activities to develop capacities suchas preparation of national communication, preparation of CDMprojects, and overcoming barriers in the use of technologies.

Type of Institution Key Institution Role with respect to Climate Change Adaptation

Climate Change Coordination and Advisory Bodies

IACCC; PTFCC; Advisory Council on Climate Change Mitigation, Adaptation and Communication; Presidential Adviser on Global Warming and Climate Change

Overlapping ( thus, confused roles) but basically, coordination of and advisory on national climate change initiatives, preparing positions for international climate change policy

National Agencies

NEDA Preparation of bluepr int of government programs (i.e. MTDP)

NDCC and its local version (regional, provincial, and municipal DCC)

Coordination of disaster management measures dur ing emergency

Sectoral National Government Agencies (e.g., D ENR, DOE, DA, DOST, DND , DSWD, DOH, DPWH, DOTC, DepED, etc.)

Implementation of climate change adaptation projects based on their sectoral mandate, as stated in their names

PAGASA Provision of weather information NWRB Implementation of Water Code

Research Institutions

UPLB; ICRAF; Klima/Manila Observatory; Centre for Initiatives and Research on Climate Change Adaptation; Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia, SUCs (e.g., UPLB, Bicol University)

Research (basic and applied) on climate change adaptation-related issues.

NGO/CSO Networks Philippine Network on Climate Change Philippine Climate Watch Alliance

Advocacy, awareness building, participation in IACCC and international climate change policy discussions; adaptation and the poor

Local Partners, CSOs, and Private Sector

LGUs (e.g. Provincial Government of Albay); various community organizations, corporations and their foundations

Implement climate change adaptation projects on the ground

Multilateral and Bilateral Organizations and International NGOs

WB, UNDP, ADB USAID, AusAID, GTZ, DFID, JICA, WWF, CI, Oxfam

Funding var ious development and conservation programs in the country, including most of the above-mentioned projects and institutions


Appendix Table 5 lists the key foreign-assisted projectsrelated to climate change adaptation in the Philippines ascompiled by Lasco and Markus-Liss (2008). Among them areprojects with implicit relation to climate change adaptation suchas Community-Based Forest Management-projects supported byGTZ/KfW or JICA and the USAID supported EnvironmentalGovernance Project. Most of these have components forcapacity building, inter-agency collaboration, and someadaptation strategies, though these were not fully specified.Projects for agriculture sector governance to address climatevariability are scanty. These projects are still wanting in policiesas well as in program translation and institutionalization offindings.

Local InitiativesLocal In itiativesLocal InitiativesLocal In itiativesLocal Initiatives

The implementation of global and regional climate policyand the results of the internationally funded projects can beeffective only insofar as these initiatives can be translatedultimately to the national and local level goals. Thedevelopment of a national or local climate policy necessarilytakes into account the overlaps that occur in complementaryenvironmental policy initiatives such as the Philippine Clean AirAct, Clean Water Act, Renewable Energy Act, Solid WasteManagement Act, forest policies and regulations, andbiodiversity, among others. It should also consider thegeographic differences in climate impacts and vulnerability aswell as the resources needed by communities to address these(Perez, 2008).

As global political efforts on climate change appear to stall,much of the innovative political actions on climate change istaking place at regional and local levels, depending on localleadership for direction and guidance. Furthermore, anysuccessful action on climate change ultimately depends on localimplementation and behavioral changes. One of the mostcomprehensive and ambitious efforts to address climate changeissues at the local government level comes from Albay Province(Perez, 2008). Some examples of local initiatives are shown inAppendix Table 6.


GapsSome of the weaknesses of climate change-related policies

and institutions in the Philippines are discussed below (Lasco andMarkus-Liss, 2008).:

1. Though there is awareness and concern among policy-makers, climate change is not a priority concern inPhilippine policies. There is no consistent national policyand strategy. As a result budget allocations for climatechange-related aspects are low.

2. There is little integration of climate change aspects inplanning and programming at the national level. If thereare references to climate change, they address mostlymitigation, and only very little on adaptation.

3. There is also insufficient integration of climate changerisk management in local decision-making processes,planning, and budget allocation. Knowledge andcapacities of LGUs to deal with adaptation to climatechange impacts are weak. Lack of devolution in DENRconstrains its possibilities to act adequately andeffectively in natural resources management.

4. In the absence of a comprehensive national action planon climate change, project-based or sectoral approacheshave been adopted that lead to inefficient use ofresources compared to a coherent cross-sectoral andintegrative approach.

5. Due to lack of prioritization and consistent policydirection, allocation of resources with regard to climatechange mitigation and adaptation are at least partlyquestionable. An example is the forest sector which is nota priority area in national budget allocations despite itshigh relevance to climate change.

6. Sectoral policies and programs to support climate changemitigation and adaptation in the agriculture, forestry,and natural resources sectors are either insufficient orstalled (forest policy, Community-Based ForestManagement , land law), and partly contradictory(biofuels, mining). Promising policies for sustainablenatural resources management (forest, marine, waterresources) are not adequately implemented.


7. Mandates and roles of various climate change institutions(IACCC, PTFCC, OPACC, ACCC) are not clear and arepartly overlapping. Institutional capacities are weak andcommunication between and among institutions andrelated agencies is insufficient. There is a lack of resourcesand of a consistent approach to coordinate Philippineclimate change strategies across all government agencies.

8. Data and information with regard to climate change areinsufficient to effectively monitor the country’s GHGemissions and climate change impacts and to underpinrelated policies and strategies. Especially, data on forestand land use changes are either not available, inaccurateor outdated.

9. Awareness and knowledge of climate change adaptationand of new climate change-related instruments andmechanisms such as Reducing Emissions fromDeforestation and Forest Degradation or REDD areinsufficient in DENR as well as at the local level.

S&T PrioritiesBased on the above analysis, the following key R&D issues

need to be addressed:

1. Study how institutions deal with climate events and howthey mitigate impacts. Examine the role of localinstitutions and their interaction in climate riskmanagement and define their strengths and limitations.The roles could include risk mapping, hazard mapping,identifying priorities to reduce vulnerability, developingplan to mitigate risks in these priority areas, determiningappropriate adaptation strategies, communication andinformation dissemination.

2. Assess institutional capacity, e.g., human resources, skillsand performance, management capacity (mandates,availability of financial resources, management practices,and processes), level of participation, authority, stability/adaptability of concerned institutions.


3. Study the extent to which climate risk managementmeasures are institutionalized and streamlined withinlocal government systems; and examine legal andregulatory environments that would reduce vulnerabilityamong the population.

4. Integrate climate change in development plans bymainstreaming climate change adaptation (not justmitigation) in national decision-making and localplanning and budgeting processes.

Specific needs for effective planning and implementationof adaptation measures include the following :

l Generation of scientific knowledge for informeddecision making particularly in the implementationof vulnerability-reducing adaptations (i.e.,partnershipbetween information generators and informationusers)

l Building capacity and partnerships for generating,evaluating, integrating, communicating, and applyingknowledge for adaptation

l Researches on past and present adaptation to derivelessons that can be used to create adaptation in thefuture, e.g., risk reduction capabilities, benefits, costs,characterization and quantification of uncertainties,and distribution of outcomes

l Linking sustainable development and adaptationl Data and information needs at the level where

adaptation will take place such as climate data,changes, and trends

Socio-economic and environmental data need to bespatially referenced and associated with spatial climatedata. These adaptation strategies will also be subject tocost benefit analysis.


5. Formulate a consistent strategic climate changeframework and national action plan for the AFNRsectors. There is a need to assess sector level policies thatcan address climate change issues; but it is also importantto study and analyze inter-sectoral policy contradictions.

6. Develop tools and approaches for mainstreaming climatechange into local agriculture and natural resourcesdevelopment and investment plans. There are availableforecasting models that can be used in training extensionagents so they can advice farmer groups on what crops toplant and when to plant. These models can be linkedwith global models, regional, provincial, and locallyproduced data. Dynamic cropping calendar is also to beestablished. Quick response capacities also need to bedeveloped. Likewise, open communication with expertsregarding field observations of agricultural productionproblems can mitigate significant damages. Improvementof early warning and response systems will also minimizedamages. There is an extreme need to localize seasonalforecasts by PAGASA.

7. Study feasibility of climate change risk insurancemechanisms and products for private sector andhousehold level, as well as for farming communities. Theweather index insurance can also be an alternative or cancomplement the crop insurance scheme now in use. Theprivate sector can provide this service to groups offarmers or vulnerable communities. There could be lawsand regulations where risks can be shared. The studycould also look at the role of local microfinanceinstitutions in mitigating climate-related risks, such asassessing risk and vulnerability of potential clients.

8. Implement existing policies for sustainable resourcemanagement. Monitoring their consequences cancontribute to the data base for knowledge management.Building an information base for monitoring impacts inthe AFNR sectors is part of mainstreaming climate changein planning.

9. Clarify mandates, functions, and tasks of existing climatechange institutions to avoid unnecessary duplications.


Local institutions should be strengthened and inter- locallinkages built. The collaboration between managers ofweather data, water resources, farmers and policy makersneeds also to be looked into. Strengthening extensionservices, community and local government focus are twoimportant elements for climate change adaptation.

10. There must be a strong political will and advocacy forlegislative measures on land use conversion and irrigationsystems development to attain food security underepisodes of climate risks.

Many in the above list are already being addressed in oneway or the other by existing and/or upcoming projects andprograms. But institutionalization of these structures, capacitybuilding, search for tools for adaptation strategies and decisionsunder uncertainty, and creating a data base integrating climatethat is friendly to the farmers and local officials will be of utmostimportance.


REFERENCESAhmed, I.H. (ed). 2009. Climate Policy Integration: Towards Operationalization, Dept. of

Economic and Social Affairs, The United Nations, New York, USA.

Burton, Ian, Robert W. Kates and Gilbert F. White. 1993. The Environment as Hazard.The Guilford Press, New York.

Lasco, Rodel and Bernd Markus-Liss, 2008. Climate Change Adaptation in thePhilippines: A Review of Policies and Institut ions-(An Interim Report) GTZ.

Perez, Rosa T. 2008. A Regional Review of the Economics of Climate Change inSoutheast As ia (RRECCS) –Country Paper: Philippines, ADB, Manila (RETA6427).

Research for the Environment: Governance of Mitigation of and Adaptation to ClimateChange, Helmholts Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ http://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=17224, accessed Sept. 27, 2009

The World Bank, Climate Change Governance http://beta.worldbank.org/node/4696,accessed Sept. 27, 2009

107CROSS-CUTTING CONCERNS

CROSS-CUTTING CONCERNS

Integrated Climate ChangeInformation and Knowledge System

Science-based information is key to sound adaptation to andmitigation of adverse climate change impacts. They are thefoundation for a sound S&T agenda, decision making andactions. Development of a Philippine Information Base onClimate Change is, therefore, a must.

Priorities for this concern include:

1. Consolidation of climate change-related data,information, and knowledge

2. Assigning an overall organization to manage centralizedconsolidated climate change information andknowledge system

3. Establishment and maintenance of observation facilitiesfor the collection and compilation of climatic, social, andbiophysical data in support of climate change studies

4. Improvement of climate change information andknowledge management systems and sharing throughoutthe country

5. Formulation of policies, guidelines, and protocol oncollection, consolidation, sharing, and use of climatechange data, information and knowledge

Specific to water resources, S&T agenda on this aspect are asfollows:

1. Updating of the water resources meta-database of currentinformation sources on water resources systems in thecountry

2. Developing new indicators to include ecological status ofwater resources systems


3. Mapping and assessing the current state of these waterresources systems.

4. Development of integrated watershed models thatdepict the linkages and feedbacks among the various keycomponents (e.g., hydrology, biodiversity, water use)which can then be coupled with downscaled local climatescenarios to study future states of water resources systems

Information, Education, andCommunication

A strategic information, communication, and education (IEC)plan should back up the implementation of the national S&Tagenda on climate change. More than public awareness, whichunfortunately has become the focus of most IEC efforts, thereshould be a deliberate communication plan that would addressthe long-term need for information and knowledge building.This should move the affected sectors (including households andcommunities depending on AFNR areas) from mere awarenessto concrete actions that would enable them to adapt to andmitigate effectively the impacts of climate change.

Educating the affected public should be the heart of IECefforts. Climate change is a name that many might have heard ofor talked about but is rarely fully understood. Generally,knowledge precedes action and unless one understands thephenomenon he is bracing himself to, adaptation and mitigationmeasures would remain meaningless and ineffective.

Priorities for IEC are as follows:

1. Baseline studies of the knowledge, attitude, perception,and communication practices of the various segments ofsociety or communities concerning climate change

2. Baseline studies of current local adaptation andmitigation practices as basis for behavior changecommunication

3. Formulation of a national strategic communication planthat would guide and provide for local adaptation ofmessages, channels, and approaches


4. Conduct of policy advocacy among policy makers anddecision makers so that the climate change concernscould be mainstreamed in national and localdevelopment policies and plans

5. Assigning a body which would coordinate andharmonize the IEC efforts being undertaken by variousgovernment and non-government institutions on climatechange at various levels

6. Identification of a national climate change championwho will have the charisma and influence over thepublic’s behavior towards climate change

7. Equipping extension and other development workerswith new communication strategies more appropriate forclimate change impacts (e.g., risk communication, crisiscommunication, social marketing, participatorycommunication among others)

8. Training the media practitioners on the science of climatechange to enable them to cover the subject matter withease and confidence

9. Partnership with the mass media (newspapers, radio, andtelevision, mobile phones, internet) and the businesssectors so that product advertisements and commercialswould integrate messages on climate change impacts,adaptation and mitigation (these may be credited as partof their corporate social responsibility)

10. Integration of topics on the science of climate change aswell as on response mechanisms to climate changeimpacts in the elementary and high school curricula

11. Integration or inclusion of climate change topics in thefarmers’ IPM schools

12. Production of communication materials (tarpaulins,streamers, bill boards, radio and TV plugs) that wouldmake the messages on climate change visible and audible(and to serve as stimuli for public discussion)

13. Training the scientists and technical experts onpopularization of the science of climate change to thelaymen

14. Strengthen the partnership between scientists andcommunicators so both can work together incommunicating the very urgent topic of climate changeto unscientific public


Capacity Building andEnhancement

To prepare the relevant systems to carry out the work,capacity building on new knowledge, methods, tools, andpractices as well as enhancement of current ones need to bedone. This should address both the human and physicalresources involved in carrying out the S&T work related toclimate change.

On the human resources side, the following are thesuggested priorities:

1. Improvement of knowledge and informationmanagement on climate change impacts

2. Human resources development through degree and non-degree programs

3. Strengthening the use and application of weather andclimate-related information (weather forecasting) toimprove risk preparedness

4. Capacity building to reach out to larger community ofstakeholders and the society-at-large throughcollaborative research, training programs, scientificworkshops, and other educational activities

For the physical resources, the items listed below need to beconsidered

1. Upgrading of facilities and equipment or fabrication ofhigh quality affordable instruments

2. Putting up of early warning systems for climate extremes,floods, landslides, drought

3. Improvement of facilities and infrastructure in the AFNRsectors to enable the science community to assessvulnerability and impacts of climate change and developappropriate adaptation and mitigation technologies


Linkages and PartnershipsClimate change is everybody’s concern and the AFNR sectors

alone cannot muster all the resources needed to address all theitems listed in this S&T agenda. Hence, efforts to address climatechange impacts should emanate from other sectors as well.Strategic linkages and partnership should be deliberately workedout for complementing and maximizing information,technologies, skills, and other resources. This necessitatesmapping of “which sectors are doing what, and what do theyhave” in climate change adaptation and mitigation andidentifying those that have direct role and contribution to therealization of the agenda. Oftentimes, this is done loosely sothat the envisioned partnership does not accomplish much ofwhat is expected of it. There is a science and art of partnershipand this must also be incorporated as part of the overall strategyin working out this S&T agenda for climate change.



APPENDICESAppendix Table 1. Change in yield and maturity period forselected climate scenarios (IV and A assessment for rice and cornproduction)

Study Site

Rice Variety

Cropping Season

Yield Base

(1 ha-1)

Change in yield (%)

CCCM GFDL GISS UKMO

A. Rice CLSU IR 64 First 4.76 3.78 6.09 2.73 4.2

Second 3.02 7.28 1.99 7.28 5.63IR 72 First 3.86 1.55 3.63 -6.73 0.26

Second 2.82 0 -2.84 4.26 -10.28

UPLB IR 64 First 4.71 7.64 11.46 9.13 -12.1Second 4.42 6.85 8.6 -13.12 -6.56

IR 72 First 3.51 6.27 11.4 9.67 -21.65Second 4.61 1.95 6.72 -13.67 -7.38

CSSAC IR 64 First 5.14 3.89 8.37 --22.37 4.47Second4.23 4.23 4.49 8.51 -13.95 -9.46

IR 72 First 3.46 1.73 7.8 -27.17 -0.058Second 4.3 3.02 6.51 -14.19 -9.77

CMU IR 64 First 5.22 1.92 1.53 1.92 -6.51Second 3.81 11.29 18.11 7.61 5.25

IR 72 First 4.5 7.56 6.89 2.44 -4.44Second 3.63 12.95 16.53 6.34 3.03

USM IR 64 First 4 -1.5 10.5 -84 -10.25Second 5.2 0 23.27 -12.31 16.73

IR 72 First 3.28 -7.01 14.02 -85.06 10.37Second 4.97 -2.01 20.72 -16.5 15.29

B. CornISU P3228 First 6.73 -11.41 -8.62 -13.08 -5.79

Second 5.71 -3.68 0.35 -11.21 -2.98SWEET First 5.63 -10.48 -8.88 -11.37 -6.75

Second 4.91 -7.94 -4.68 -17.72 -9.16

CMU P3228 First 9.54 -11.43 -8.39 -13.1 -12.68Second 7.96 -1.38 4.65 -7.16 2.67

SWEET First 8.49 -11.66 -8.95 -12.25 -12.37Second 7.42 -8.36 -1.75 -15.09 -2.02

USM P3228 First 7.14 -15.27 -17.93 -17.79 -14.57Second 6.94 -16.14 -16.14 -17.29 -8.07

SWEET First 5.99 -15.86 -22.87 -18.36 -15.86Second 5.61 -18.18 -18.72 -18.18 -6.6

Source: Philippines Initial National Communicat ion (1999)CCCM = Climate and Carbon Cycle ModellingGFDL = Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryGISS = Goddard Inst itute for Space StudiesUKMO = United Kingdom Meteorological Office


Appendix Table 2. Some completed, ongoing, and proposedprojects in crops sector related to climate change adaptationmonitored by PCARRD

Strateg y Commodity Project Title Status Agencies Involved

Farming system

Var ious crops

National Program for Sustainable Upland Farming through the Establishment of “Barangay Sagip Saka” (Conservation Farming Villages)

Ongoing UPLB, ISCAF, BUCAF, Silliman University, USeP, LGUs

Farming system

Var ious crops

Evaluation and Adoption of Improved Farming Practices on Soil and Water Resources, Bohol Island

Ongoing ACIAR, BSWM, DENR, ICRAF

Farming system

Coconut Coconut-based S&T Intervention for the Rehabili tation of Selected Calamity-Stricken Areas in Albay

Ongoing BU/BUCAF, PCA, CSSAC

Forecasting Var ious crops

Installation, Testing, and Evaluation of Data Logging Equipment in Monitoring Weather Parameters in the Agrometeorological Station

Completed UPLB, PAGASA

Forecasting Corn Analys is of Climatic Risk and Coping Strategies in Two Major Corn-Growing Areas in the Phil ippines

Completed UPLB-INSTAT

Germplasm Conservation and Util ization

F ruit crops, ornamentals and medicinal plants

Acquis ition, conservation, and management of genetic resources of priority fruit and ornamental plants

Completed

Integrated Pest Management

F ruit Crops Development of site-specific Integrated Pest M in mango

Completed

Off-season production

F ruit crops Improved production of saba, lakatan, latundan cultivars in different cropping systems

Ongoing

Varietal Improvement

Coconut Action program on the adoption of suitable technologies with emphasis on coconut-varieties and hybrids from the MULTILOC Project

Completed


Corn Marker-assisted varietal improvement of maize for y ield and res istance to s talk rot complex

Completed



Corn Development of transgenic corn varieties resistant to Asiatic corn borer

Completed


Fruit crops Varietal improvement of papaya Completed


Fruit crops Development of transgenic papaya resistant to papaya ringspot virus

Completed


Legumes, Vegetab les, Rootcrops

Enhancing adoption of ICRISAT legume varieties and technologies in the Philippines

Completed


Legumes, Vegetab les, Rootcrops

Identification, improvement, and evaluat ion of detoxification process of wild yam for El Nino and La Nina-affected areas

Completed


Abaca National multilocational trials of promising abaca bunchy top resistant genotypes

Ongoing

Water management

Rice Water Resources Management Center Demonst ration Farm and Training Facility for Pressurized Irrigation Systems

Completed CLSU

Strategy Commodity Project Title Status Agencies Invo lved

Appendix Table 2. Continued ….


Appendix Table 3. Above ground biomass and carbon density offorest land cover in the Philippines

Land Cover Age (yr)

Carbon content, %

Bio mass(t/ha)

Carbon (t /ha)

Location Source of data

A. Protection Forests

1. Old growth 50 370-520 165-260

IPCC default (Houghton et al ., 1997)

2. Mossy 45.0 408.5 183.8 Mak il ing Lasco et al., 2000

3. Pine 48.8 184.6 90.1 Baguio Lasco et al., 2000

4. Submarginal 0.0

5. Mangrove 44.0 401.8 176.8 Quezon Lasco et al., 2000

B. Secondary Forest 45.4 672.8 305.5 Mak il ing Lasco et al., 2000

45.0 262.0 117.9 Mindanao Kawahara et al., 1981

44.0 547.0 240.7 Mak il ing Lasco et al., 2004

44.7 446.0 199.4 Leyte Lasco et al., 1999

Mean 44.6 465.9 207.9

C. Brushland s 45.4 63.8 29.0 Leyte Lasco et al., 1999

D. Tree Plantatio n 0.0 Mahogany 44.0 41.60 590.40 245.6 Mak il ing Racelis, 2000

Tree legumes 43.10 530.70 228.7 Mak il ing Lasco et al., 2000

Dipterocarps 66 45.4 541.4 245.8 Mak il ing Racelis, 2000

A. auriculiformis 16.0 46.60 164.83 76.8 N. Ecija Lasco et al., 2000

Teak 45.70 74.82 34.2 N. Ecija Lasco et al., 2000

Mahogany 45.00 17.00 7.7 Leyte Lasco et al., 1999

Gmelina 45.00 124.00 55.8 Leyte Lasco et al., 1999

A. mangium 45.00 195.80 88.1 Leyte Lasco et al., 1999

Gmelina 7.0 45.00 120.70 54.3 Mindanao Kawahara et al., 1981



P. falcataria 4.0 45.00 69.50 31.3 Mindanao Kawahara et al., 1981







Source of area: F MB, 1998 except tree plantat ions. Grasslands and agroforestry are esti mates from vari ous li terature sources.% carbon of trees onlyCarbon content assumed to be 45% for all data f rom Kawahara et al. 1981* Carbon content assumed to be 45%


Mahogany 16.0 45.00 261.00 117.5 Mindanao Kawahara et al., 1981

A. auriculiformis* 6 45.00 7.39 3.3 N. Ec ija Lasco, 2001 A. auriculiformis 2*

6 45.00 9.97

4.5 N. Ec ija Sakurai et al., 1994

A. auriculiformis 3* 9 45.00 42.51 19.1 N. Ec ija A. auriculiformis 4* 9 45.00 32 14.4 N. Ec ija A. auriculiformis 5* 9 45.00 46.11 20.7 N. Ec ija A. auriculiformis 6* 9 45.00 39.73 17.9 N. Ec ija Tectona grandis 1* 13 45.00 8.7 3.9 N. Ec ija T. grandis 2* 13 45.00 22.3 10.0 N. Ec ija Gmelina arborea 1* 6 45.00 17.22 7.7 N. Ec ija G. arborea 2* 6 45.00 7.71 3.5 N. Ec ija Pinus kesiya* 13 45.00 107.83 48.5 N. Ec ija P. kesiya + broadleaf spp.*

13 45.00 83.24

37.5 N. Ec ija Acacia mangium*

4.0 45.00 56.9

25.6 Leyte Buante 1997; Lasco 2001

Gmelina arborea* 4.0 45.00

70.2 31.6 Leyte

Buante 1997; Lasco 2001

A. auriculiformis* 4.0 45.00

63.5 28.6 Leyte

Buante 1997; Lasco 2001

Acacia ner iifolia* 4.0 45.00 87.13 39.2 Iloilo Lasco 2001A. holosericea*

4.0 45.00 34.4

15.5 Iloilo Lachica-Lustica 1997

A. crassicarpa* 4.0 45.00 155.79 70.1 Iloilo A. aulacocarpa* 4.0 45.00 56.36 25.4 Iloilo Leucaena divers ifol ia* 4.0 45.00 0.66 0.3 Iloilo Casuarina cuminghiana*

4.0 45.00 3.21

1.4 Iloilo C. equis itifolia* 4.0 45.00 15.55 7.0 Iloilo Eucalyptus citrodora* 4.0 45.00 52.41 23.6 Iloilo E. cloeziana* 4.0 45.00 48.27 21.7 Iloilo E. pell ita* 4.0 45.00 33.99 15.3 Iloilo E. tereticornis* 4.0 45.00 49.87 22.4 Iloilo Mahogany 80.0 45.00 564.92 254.2 Makil ing Lasco 2001

Mahogany 80.0 45.00 634.99

285.7 Makil ing Sakurai et al., 1994

Dipterocarps 80.0 45.00 536.12 241.3 Makil ing Dipterocarps 80.0 45.00 279.14 125.6 Makil ing

Mean 132.3 59.0 E. Grasslands

I. cyl indrica 44.5 20.1 8.9 Leyte Lasco et al. 1999

S. spontaneum 41.3 36.9 15.2 Leyte Lasco et al., 1999

Mean 42.9 28.5 12.1 F. Agroforestry

Fallow sys tem* 45.0 32.0 14.4 Cebu Lasco and Suson, 1989

Coconut+coffee 44.0 99.2 43.6 Makil ing Zamora, 1999 Narra+cacao 44.0 191.6 84.3 Makiling Zamora, 1999

Alley cropping 45.0 3.8 1.7 Makiling Lasco et al., 2001c

Gmelina+cacao 44.0 257.7 113.4 Makiling Lasco et al., 2001c

Home garden 45.0 32.7 14.7 Isabela Castro, 2000 Mean 102.8 45.4

S f FMB, 1998 except tree plantations. Grasslands and agroforestry are estimates from

Source: Lasco et al., 2003

Land Cover Age (yr)

Carbon content, %

Biomass(t /ha)

Carbon (t/ha)

Location Source of data


Appendix Table 4. Mean annual increment (MAI) of above groundbiomass and carbon in the Philippines

Land Cover Age (yr)

BiomassMAI (t/ha)

Carbon MAI (t/ha)

Location Source of Data

A. Protection Forests nd nd nd B. Secondary Forest nd 2.1 0.9 Leyte Lasco et al., 1999

nd 4.9 1.19

Mindanao Kawahara et al., 1981

Mean 3.5 1.1 C. Brushlands 9.5 4.3 Leyte Lasco et al., 1999 D. Tree Plantation

Mahogany 44 14.24 6.4 Makiling Racelis, 2000 Dipterocarps 66 7.369001 3.3 Makiling Racelis, 2000 A. auriculiformis 16 9.08 4.1 N. Ecija Lasco et al., 2000 Mahogany 8.39 3.3 Leyte Lasco et al., 1999 Gmelina 18.84 8.2 Leyte Lasco et al., 1999

Gmelina 711.3 5.51


Gmelina 910.5 4.37


Gmelina 99.6 6.04


P. falcataria 420.2 7.82












Mahogany 16 19.6 7.33 Mindanao Kawahara et al., 1981

A. auriculiformis* 6 1.231766 0.6 N. Ecija Lasco, 2001 A. auriculiformis 2*

61.661289

0.7 N. Ecija Sakurai et al., 1994

A. auriculiformis 3* 9 4.723807 2.1 N. Ecija A. auriculiformis 4* 9 3.555892 1.6 N. Ecija A. auriculiformis 5* 9 5.123389 2.3 N. Ecija A. auriculiformis 6* 9 4.414571 2.0 N. Ecija Tectona grandis 1* 13 0.669576 0.3 N. Ecija T. grandis 2* 13 1.71554 0.8 N. Ecija Gmelina arborea 1* 6 2.869172 1.3 N. Ecija G. arborea 2* 6 1.285075 0.6 N. Ecija Pinus kesiya* 13 8.29455 3.7 N. Ecija P. kesiya + broadleaf spp*. 13 6.403308 2.9 N. Ecija Acacia mangium*

414.225

6.4 Leyte Buante, 1997Lasco 2001


Gmelina arborea*4

17.55 7.9 Leyte

Buante, 1997Lasco 2001

A. auriculiformis* 4

15.875 7.1 Leyte

Buante, 1997Lasco 2001

Acacia neriifolia* 4 21.78127 9.8 Iloilo Lasco, 2001 A. holosericea*

48.599975

3.9 Iloilo Lachica-Lustica, 1997

A. crassicarpa* 4 38.94815 17.5 Iloilo A. aulacocarpa* 4 14.09045 6.3 Iloilo Leucaena diversifolia * 4 0.164304 0.1 Iloilo Casuarina cuminghiana* 4 0.802636 0.4 Iloilo C. equisitifolia* 4 3.886252 1.7 Iloilo Eucalyptus citrodora* 4 13.10143 5.9 Iloilo E. cloeziana* 4 12.06799 5.4 Iloilo E. pellita* 4 8.498015 3.8 Iloilo E. teret icornis* 4 12.46637 5.6 Iloilo Mahogany 80 7.061438 3.2 Makiling Lasco 2001

Mahogany 80 7.937386

3.6 Makiling Sakurai et al., 1994

Dipterocarps 80 6.701469 3.0 Makiling Dipterocarps 80 3.489233 1.6 Makiling

Mean 9.1 4.2 E. Grasslands nd nd nd F. Agroforestry

Fallow system** nd 10.6 5.3 Cebu Lasco and Suson, 1989

Source of area: FMB, 1998 except tree plantations. Grasslands and agroforestrywhich are estimates from various literature sources% Carbon of t rees onlyCarbon content assumed to be 45% for all data from Kawahara et al. , 1981* Carbon content assumed to be 45%** Carbon content assumed to be 50%

Source: Lasco et al., 2003

Land Cover Age (yr)

BiomassMAI (t/ha)

Carbon MAI

(t/ha)

Location Source of Data



Appendix Table 5. Internationally-supported projects on climatechange adaptation in the Philippines

Project Title Fun dingAgency/Partner

Description (objectives, implementation, expected o utput, budget)

Philippines: Climate Change Adaptation Project, Phase I (PhilCCAP1)

• GEF- World Bank • EMB-DENR, DA,

PAGASA-DOST, NAMRIA, NIA, NDCC-OCD, NEDA, DA

• Aims to reduce the negative impacts of increasing risks due to climate change on poverty alleviation and economic development, particularly on agr iculture, forestry, and natural resources as well as infrastructure sectors, and in part through enhanced inter -agency coordination with respect to climate change adaptation and natural hazard risk management

• Budget: Initial US$ 5 M • Duration: 2009-2014

Strengthening the Philippines’ Institutional Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change

• Gov’t of Spain and UNDP

• DENR, NEDA, DA

• Seeks to assist the GoP in achieving the MDGs through adaptation measures to climate change. Specifically , it aims to assist build capacities of national agencies, local authorities, and vulnerable communities to effectively develop coping mechanisms to emerging climate change pressures; develop tools and systems to enable appropriate planning and implementation of climate change adaptation; and provide information on technological adaptation and sustainable development options useful for addressing the negative impacts of climate change at the local level.

• Budget: US$ 8.62 M • Duration: Sept 2008 - Dec 2011

National Communications Support Programme

• GEF- UNDP • DENR IACCC

Secretariat

• Provide technical and policy support to Parties not included in Annex I (NAI) to UNFCCC

• Assistance to the Phil ippines in prepar ing its Second National Communication to UNFCCC, with two main activities: (a) GHG inventory and (b) vulnerabil ity assessment studies

• Duration: 2006 – 2009

National Program Support for the Environment and Natural Resources Management

• World Bank • DENR

• Aims to strengthen the allocative efficiency of DENR's limited budget resources, through better prioritization and partnership arrangements, facilitating scaling up and better l inking of plans and budgets. The project components include: (a) policy development, planning, monitoring, and evaluation; (b) integrated ecosystem management; and (c) environmental and natural resource management.

• Budget: Loan US$ 50 M and national contribution PhP 87 M • Duration: June 2007- Dec 2012

Promoting Climate Change Adaptation in Asia and the Pacific

• ADB (from Gov’t of Japan and Gov’t of UK)

• Designed to help address the need to (a mainstream adaptation issues into investment planning, (b) develop a national capacity for adaptation, and (c) coordinate and strengthen international community responses for adaptation.

• Budget: US$ 3.6 M • Duration: November 2007 - wil l be completed about

48 months later


Project Title FundingAgency/Partner

Description (object ives, implementation, expected ou tput, b udg et)

RETA - Addressing Climate Change in the Asia and Pacific Region

• Asian Development Bank (ADB)

• Aims to improve region-specific knowledge and understanding of c limate change challenges facing the Asia and Pacific region, and to make suggestions for policy makers and development planners in the region about measures to address climate change in selected areas. Main output will be three major publications on (a) c limate change and energy, (b) building climate resilience in the agr iculture sector, and (c) climate change and migration in the context of the Asia and Pacific region targeting policy makers and development planners in the region.

• Budget: US$1.25 M

Climate Change Fund

• Asian Development Bank (ADB)

• Aims to facilitate greater investments in developing countr ies in Asia and the Pacific to address causes and consequences of global warming. Money from the fund will be used to provide grant financing for technical assistance, investment projects, research, and other activities.

• Budget: initial US$40 mill ion

Disaster Preparedness in the Philippines (DIPECHO)

• European Commission Humanitarian Aid (with funding from various donor and aid agencies)

• Suppor ts the integration of disaster risk reduction measures in socio-economic and development plans, training, awareness raising, advocacy at municipal, provincial and regional levels. At national level, it aims to contribute to the elaboration of strategic frameworks for disaster risk reduction as well as the development of school curr icula.

• Between November 2006 and May 2008, DIPECHO supported various projects on disaster preparedness throughout the Philippines, spending around €1.4 mill ion.

Friends of the Reef

• World Wildlife Fund (WWF)

• Aims to increase awareness and advocacy activities by highlighting stor ies and show-cases from previous, current, and future coral bleaching in major reef countr ies throughout the Asia-Pacific region then using this information to call for emission reduction in regional countr ies.

• Enacts local stakeholders and decision makers to develop, test and implement plans to increase coral reef resil ience to major threats in the region, including c limate change. In the Philippines, the s ites are in Tubataha National Park and El Nido National Park.

Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation in Watershed Management and Upland Farming in the Philippines

• United Nations Institute for Training and Research (START)

• ENFOR, College of Forestry and Natural Resources, UPLB/ School of Environmental Sciences and Management (SESAM), UPLB/ World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF-Philippines)

• Aims to promote climate change adaptation by upland farmers and watershed managers at the national and local levels in the Philippines by generating information on c limate change adaptation for watershed resources and upland farms that will be useful for decis ion-making by national policy-makers and local stakeholders

• Based on the assessment of vulnerabil ity and adaptation polic ies/strategies, c limate risks adaptation communication materials will be developed for policy makers, local farmers, and other local stakeholders. It is also expected that the project wil l contribute to the preparation of the Philippines Second National Communication to the UNFCCC.



Policy and Institutional Landscaping for Climate Risk Management (the case of Angat Reservoir)

• International Research Institute for Climate and Society

• ISPPS, College of Public Affairs, UPLB

• NWRB, PAGASA, NPC, MWSS,NIA

• Using the case of Angat reservoir, the project aims to promote understanding of the climate-related problems, tcur rent institutional and policy landscape, and decision-making processes involved in the reservoir operation. This would be useful in developing decision suppor t tools for water allocation and a training module for capacity building activities with water resources managers.

Enhancing the Climate Change Adaptation Capacity of LGUs and Scientists in the Philippines

• IARDS, College of Public Affairs, UPLB

• APN Capable Program

• Selected LGUs and SUCs

• With selected LGUs in Pampanga, Batangas, Cavite, and Isabela, this study aims to facil itate the institution of mechanisms to strengthen LGU-scientific community partnership and capacity to formulate climate change response strategies; assist LGUs in the preparation of indicative climate change adaptation plans, programs and policies; and disseminate the findings of the study to policy makers and various sectors.

Analysis of the Climate Change Adaptation Behavior of Households, Communities and Institutions to a Typhoon Event

• EEPSEA • IARDS, College of

Public Affairs, UPLB

• Aims to examine the adaptation behavior of households, communities, and institutions towards major typhoon events (using the case of Milenyo), analyze adaptation barr iers and recommend feasible adaptation options to minimize risks, improve resil ience, and enhance adaptive capacity

Developing Local, National and Regional Capacities to Sustain Climate Change Initiatives in the Philippines and East Asia (DEVCAP)

• USAID • Klima

• Aims to develop the national and regional capacities of government, civil society, and the private sector to actively partic ipate in the global effort to address climate change. Specifically, the project involves: broadening and fortifying the resource base needed to sustain c limate change initiatives; increasing access to information and helping build the knowledge pool that will enable effective participation in climate change activities; and facilitating the forging of linkages/networks of actors engaged in climate change.

Climate Change Program

• Japan / JICA • NEDA

• Program Loan: general budget support extended to GOP’s action plans to tackle c limate change. Predetermined amount will be disbursed based on the policy matr ix which is agreed between GoP and donor agency and its performance. Related investment projects and/or technical assistance could be considered at the same time. The Program will contribute in reducing the risks caused by climate change by (a) mitigation through GHGabsorption and emission reduction, (b) capacity development for adaptation, (c) crosscutting issues of c limate change.

• Duration 2009-2015 • Loan amount: 30 Bln Yen (about US$ 322 M) • Feasibility Study planned for Feb.-Aug. 2009, JICA

Loan Agreement planned f or 2010

Sources of Data: (a) Lasco and Markus-Liss, 2008 and (b) R and E data base,CPAf, UPLB

Project Title Fun dingAgency/Partner

Description (objectives, implementation, expected o utput, budget)

Appendix Table 5. Cont inued ….


Appendix Table 6. Local initiatives on climate changein the Philippines

Location Proponent Initiative

Albay • Provincial Government of Albay

• Center for I nitiatives and Research in Climate Adaptation (CIRCA)

The Albay Provincial legislation unanim ously proclaim ed the 1st and pioneering prototype f or local C limate Change Adaptation, launching in Albay t he Action on Clim ate Change (A2C2).in t he day-to-day activities of the province and resolved that environment shall be included in the curricula of all schools, colleges, and universities in Albay in August 2007. An example of a resolution enact ed is SP Ordinance 2007-51 which calls for updating and review of Com prehensive Land Use Plan (CLUP) for disaster r isk reduction and climate change adaptation. It also reorganized the Provincial Land Use Committee under Provincial Executive Order 2007-07 and CLUP Technical Working Group under Provincial Executive Order in order to implement such ordinance.

Boracay - Tourism Sector

Mm unicipality of Malay, Aklan (where Boracay belongs), DOT, DENR, Boracay Foundation Inc., Boracay Chamber of Commerce and Industry, and Mother Earth Foundation, GreenPeace

Environmental management plans f or the island to - include energy efficiency measures - promote of renewable energy use especially in the construction or expansion of establishments - provide regular energy audits, training, and workshops among establishm ent s to ensure t he continuation and replication of successful practices - energy and water conservation, ecological waste m anagement

Makati City, Metro Manila

Bacolod City, Negros Occidental

GRIPP (Green Renewable Independent Power Producer) and Greenpeace Bacolod and Makati cities have demonstrated that local governments can take action and play a critical role in contributing to global efforts at curbing dangerous climate change even while they forge real, sustainable solutions that address environmental problems at the local level like air pollution and municipal waste.

Both cities became the pilot sites for the use of the electric jeepneys under the the GRIPP's Climate Friendly Cities project, by launching for replication of t he project in cities around the country, and for enabling the massive uptake of renewable energy alternatives in order to mitigate climate change.

Camarines Sur

Caceres Auxiliary Bishop Jose Rojas, Jr., Lead convener and Chairman, Bishop of the Prelature of Libmanan.

The Camarines Sur Clim ate Change Summit held in July 2008 created awareness among the people of t he ill-eff ects of global warming and consider workable alternatives to lessen its impact.

Sources: (a) respective LGU websites and newsletters; (b) Perez, 2008

My warmest congratulations to the Philippine Council for Agriculture,Forestry and Natural Resources Research and Development (PCARRD)for coming up with an integrated S&T agenda that is hoped to directthe AFNR sectors in battling the unprecedented impacts of climatechange.

This initiative complements the efforts of other agencies, particularlythe Office of the Presidential Adviser on Global Warming and ClimateChange (OPACC) in bringing the nation together to collectivelyaddress this global phenomenon.

As the impacts of climate change are imminent, we are all the morechallenged to unite and be proactive in ensuring sustained agriculturaldevelopment

With this S&T Agenda, we are one step ahead towards making theAFNR sectors resilient and productive despite the threats of climatechange.

Again, my congratulations to PCARRD!

Office of the President of the PhilippinesMalacañan

MESSAGE

Heherson THeherson THeherson THeherson THeherson T. Alvarez. Alvarez. Alvarez. Alvarez. AlvarezSecretary

Office of the Presidential Adviser onGlobal Warming and Climate Change


ACRONYMS ACCC Advisory Council on Climate Change ACIAR Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research ADB Asian Development Bank AFMA Agriculture and Fisheries Modernization Act AFNR Agriculture, Forestry, and Natural Resources ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations AusAID Australian Agency for International Development BSWM Bureau of Soils and Water Management BU Bicol University CA College of Agriculture CBFM Community-Based Forest Management CCC Climate Change Commission CCCM Climate and Carbon Cycle Modeling CFNR College of Forestry and Natural Resources CI Conservation International CIP Centro Internacional de la Papa (International Potato Center) CIRCA Centre for Initiatives and Research on Climate Adaptation CLSU Central Luzon State University CLUP Comprehensive Land Use Plan CMU Central Mindanao University CSSAC Camarines Sur State Agricultural College CTA Water consumption-to-availability DA Department of Agriculture DA-RFU Department of Agriculture-Regional Field Unit DENR Department of Environment and Natural Resources DENR-EMB DENR-Environmental Management Bureau DepEd Department of Education DFID Department for International Development (United Kingdom) DIPECHO Disaster Preparedness Echo DND Department of National Defense DOE Department of Energy DOH Department of Health DOST Department of Science and Technology DPWH Department of Public Works and Highways DSWD Department of Social Welfare and Development DOTC Department of Transportation and Communications ECOGOV Environmental Governance EEPSEA Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia ENFOR Environmental Forestry Programme FMB Forest Management Bureau

GCM Global Circulation Model GEF Global Environment Facility GHG greenhouse gas GIS Geographic Information System GRIPP Green Renewable Independent Power Producer GTZ Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit

(German Technical Cooperation) GWSP Global Water System Project IACCC Inter-Agency Committee on Climate Change IARDS Institute of Agrarian and Rural Development Studies ICRAF World Agroforestry Centre INSTAT Institute of Statistics IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IRRI International Rice Research Institute ISCAF Ifugao State College of Agriculture and Forestry ISF ISP Integrated Social ForestryIndustry Strategic Plans ISPPS Institute of Strategic Planning and Policy Studies ISU Isabela State University IWMI Integrated Water Management Institute JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency LGU local government unit LULUCF land use, land-use change, and forestry MAI Mean Annual Increment MMSU Mariano Marcos State University MPFD Master Plan for Forestry Development MTADP Medium Term Agricultural Development Plan MWSS Metropolitan Waterworks and Sewerage System NAMRIA National Mapping and Resource Information Authority NDCC National Disaster Coordinating Council NDCC-OCD NDCC-Office of Civil Defense NEDA National Economic Development Authority NGO non-government organization NIA National Irrigation Administration NIPAS National Integrated Protected Areas Systems NPC National Power Corporation NWRB National Water Resources BoardOPACC Office of the Presidential Adviser on Global Warming

and Climate Change PA Philippine Agenda PAC Pampanga Agricultural College

ACRONYMS


PAGASA Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and AstronomicalServices Administration

PCA Philippine Coconut Authority PCARRD Philippine Council for Agriculture, Forestry, and Natural

Resources Research and Development PCWA Philippine Climate Watch Alliance Philrice Philippine Rice Research Institute PNCC Philippine Network on Climate Change PSU Pangasinan State University PTFCC Presidential Task Force on Climate Change RCRC Regional Coconut Research Center R&D Research and Development REDD Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and

Forest Degradation RMTU Ramon Magsaysay Technological University SALT Sloping Agriculture and Land Technology SESAM School of Environmental Sciences and Management SRES IPCC emission scenarios S&T Science and Technology SUC Sate Universities and Colleges UNITAR United Nations Institute for Training and Research TCA Tarlac College of Agriculture TLA Timber Lease Agreement UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNFCCC UN Framework Convention on Climate Change UPLB University of the Philippines Los Baños USAID United States Agency for International Development USeP University of Southeastern Philippines USM University of Southern Mindanao WAPC Water availability-per-capita WB World Bank WTA Water withdrawal-to-availability WWF World Wildlife Fund

DEPARTMEN T OF AGRICULTUREREPUBLIC OF TH E PHILIPPIN ESe- mail: rd@b ar.gov.p h website: www.b ar.g ov.p h

ISO 9001:2000

Bureau of Agricultural Research

MESSAGE I commend PCARRD for developing the Philippine S&T Agenda on Climate Change (PSTACC) in Agriculture, Forestry and Natural Resources Sectors. This is indeed a great initiative that would surely benefit the country’s AFNR sectors, the sectors considered as highly vulnerable to the harmful effects of climate change. Climate change is a serious threat that requires an urgent proactive response. Needed today are immediate actions that

would address the compelling adverse effects of climate variability on the country’s highly vulnerable sectors, which include the agriculture and fisheries sectors among others. The Bureau of Agricultural Research, committed on helping the country’s farmers and fisherfolk, has also developed in consultation with experts group an R&D agenda and program addressing the impact of climate change in agriculture and fisheries. The program includes among others the enhancement of the adaptive capacity of the agricultural sector in coping with the threats brought by climate change. We are glad to find out that our program is coherent with and complement the S&T Agenda of PCARRD. At this time when we are faced with great challenges, all actions to be taken should be directed towards a common goal. With this agenda, we are provided with a clear track to follow towards the attainment that specific goal. We hope that through PSTACC, BAR’s R&D program, and other agencies’ action plans and programs, we will be able to address the forthcoming problems on changing climate. Again, congratulations PCARRD! NICOMEDES P. ELAZAR, Ph.D., CESO IV Director

TTTTTAbout PCARRD

he Philippine Council for Agriculture, Forestry and NaturalResources Research and Development (PCARRD) is one ofthe sectoral councils under the Department of Science and

Technology (DOST). Established in 1972, PCARRD formulates policies,plans, and programs for science and technology-based developmentin the agriculture, forestry, and natural resources (AFNR) sectors. Itcoord inates, evaluates, and monitors the nat ional research anddevelopment (R&D) efforts in AFNR. It also allocates governmentand external funds for R&D and generates resources to support itsprograms.

The first DOST council to earn an ISO 9001:2000 certification forits quality management system, PCARRD is engaged in activepartnership with international, regional, and national organizations andfunding institutions for joint R&D, human resource development andtraining, technical assistance, and exchange of scientists, information,and technologies.

The Council supports the National Agriculture and ResourcesResearch and Development System (NARRDS), composed of NationalAgriculture and Resources Research and Development Network andthe Regional R&D Consortia. As such, PCARRD has been a potentarm in catalyzing the Philippine AFNR sectors toward self-sufficiencyand global competitiveness.

MAILING ADDRESS PHILIPPINE COUNCIL FOR AGRICULTURE,FORESTRY AND NATURAL RESOURCESRESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENTPaseo de Valmayor, TimuganLos Baños, Laguna, Philippines 4030

TELEPHONES Los Baños - (63) (049) 536-0014 to 536-0015/536-0017 to 536-0020 & 536-0024; 536-5907;536-2330; 536-2305; 536-2383; 536-1956; 536-6980

FAX Los Baños - (63) (049) 536-0016/536-7922DOST, Bicutan, Taguig City (63) (02) 837-1651

E-MAIL [email protected] http://www.pcarrd.dost.gov.ph

PCARRD Policy Advocacy Group Technical Committeeon Climate Change

Dr. Romulo T. Aggangan, ChairDr. Albert P. Aquino, Co-ChairDr. Synan S. BaguioDr. Ernesto O. BrownMr. Richard B. DaiteMr. Roberto P. DevanaderaMr. Anthony C.T.M. ForondaDr. Angelina M. GarcesDr. Susan Sandra L. IlaoDr. Bethilda E. UmaliMr. Marcelino U. Siladan

In collaboration with:

Dr. Leah J. BuendiaDr. Bessie M. BurgosMs. Luz C. FirmalinoDr. Lily Ann D. LandoDr. Elaine F. Lanting

PCARRD Technical Panel on Climate ChangeSecretariat

Mr. Anthony C.T.M. Foronda, HeadMr. Roberto P. DevanaderaMs. Apple Jean C. MartinMs. Danellie Joy O. Medina

LIST OF TEAM MEMBERS

Documents

About PCARRD Told.worldagroforestry.org/downloads/Publications/PDFS/B...i i PHILPI PINE S&T AGENDA ON CLMI ATE CHANGE 20102-016 ABOUT THE MEMBERS OF PCARRD TECHNICAL PANEL ON CLIMATE