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CLIMATE CHANGE and SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT-

CHALLENGES, RESPONSES and OPPORTUNITIES

Source: Time Magazine, 1997 PAGASA/DOST

Presented by:

Ma. Rosario Griño WoodChair, Science Department

Professor: Science/Biology, EPM DepartmentsFaculty and Research Associate; : ESI,

Miriam CollegeMember of the Board

Phil. Network on Climate Change , mwood@mc.edu.ph

For: PhilExport Membership General Assembly

Sofitel, ManilOctober 1, 2009

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Presentation Outline

Source: Time Magazine, 1997

•Climate Change and Vulnerability of the Philippines to Climate Change Impacts

•Climate Change and Sustainable Development

•Responses and Opportunities ** UNFCCC ** Kyoto Protocol- Mitigation ** Adaptation

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Our precious planetOur precious planet

““I am speaking to all world citizens, I am speaking to all world citizens, and particularly world leaders , that and particularly world leaders , that we must take urgent action to fight we must take urgent action to fight against climate change. Unless we against climate change. Unless we

take action now, we will regret deeply take action now, we will regret deeply for the future of our humanity, for the for the future of our humanity, for the

future of our planet earth”.future of our planet earth”. Ban Ki MoonBan Ki Moon

UN Secretary GeneralUN Secretary General

Source: Time Magazine, 1997

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Global warming (IPCC-AR4, 2007)

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal• Observed/measured increases ( 0.75oC;

1906-2005)in global average temperatures;

• Eleven of the last twelve years (1995 -2006) -among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature since 1850

• Over the past 50 years- Hot days and hot nights have become more frequent.

• For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2°C per decade is projected

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Source: National Geographic Magazine (2004)

Shrinking sea iceShrinking sea ice

Projections:Projections:

-150 cubic km or -150 cubic km or 150 B tonnes/yr of 150 B tonnes/yr of Arctic glaciersArctic glaciers

-Arctic ice-free by -Arctic ice-free by 20442044

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Increasing Sea Level Rise (IPCC-AR4, 2007)

• Sea level rise : -thermal expansion, and melting

glaciers, ice caps, and polar ice sheets.

• 1.8mm/yr-3.1mm/yr- rate of global average sea level rise from 1961 to 1993; 18cm-59cm-(2 m)- projected sea level rise at the end of the 21st century

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What are the causes of this global phenomenon?

• The way society produces energy

• The way society uses finite energy

• The way society consumes other resources (natural and man-made)

Emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs)-

CO2, N2O, CH4, HFCs, SF6

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Figure 2.1 The greenhouse effect

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Signals of Climate Change … GHGs, GHGs, Indicators of human Indicators of human influenceinfluence

CO2 inc by 30% since 1780-rate of inc unprecedented during the past 20,000 yrs.

CH4 inc by a factor of 2.5 during the industrial revolution.

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Radiative ForcingNatural: The SUN, Volcanoes, etc

Anthropogenic: GHGs, Aerosols, etc

Global Warming: Increase in global temperature

Changes in OtherClimate Parameters• Precipitation, cloudiness• Wind Circulation•Atmospheric pressure

Changes in Ocean•Temperature•Sea level rise•Ocean circulation •Salinity/Acidity

Changes in Cryosphere• melting glaciers, ice caps/polar ice sheets.•Decline in mountain glaciers, permafrost

Floods landslidesDrought forest firesEl Nino/La NinaStrong typhoonsHeat waves, etc.

Coastal floodingHigher storm surgesSalt water intrusionCoral bleachingFish migration, etc.

Impacts on systems and sectors: Agriculture (Food, fiber and forest products), Hydrology (Fresh water resources), Ecosystems, Coastal Systems and low lying areas, Industry, Settlement and Society and Health

Normal Weather and Climate/Climate variability

Increases in positive Radiative forcing, such as GHGs

Accelerated sea levelrise (ASLR)Reduced freshwateravailability in long runExtinction of species

CLIMATE CHANGE

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Anomalies in the Country’s Climate: 1951-2006

• inc of 0.6104oC in observed mean annual mean temperature;

• Inc of 0.3742oC in observed annual max temp;

• Inc of 0.8940oC in observed annual min temp;

• Inc no. of hot days and warm nights;

• Decrease no. of cold days and cool nights;

• Inc of annual mean rainfall and rainy days

• Inc in inter-annual variability of onset rainfall;

• Ave of 20 cyclones cross PAR, 8-9 landfall each year (inc of 4.2 in frequency,1990-2003) 11

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Vulnerability to Climate Change • Philippine Archipelago- - 7,107 islands; coastline of 34,000 Km-267,000 sq Km water-70% of municipalities depend on coastline and marine ecosystems as source of livelihood-located within the Pacific typhoon belt area-82.5% of Filipino population at risk to tropical cyclones; flooding & storm surge ( M PhP10-10,000, 1950s-2000)-27% of 14.9 M homes have roofs/walls w/ sub-standard

materials & of make-shift, non-engineered structures (NSCB 2003) -A mega-diverse country-9th among 10 SEA countries in forest cover-4th most disaster-prone country in the world (Germanwatch

2007)

-

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Vulnerability…• The degree to which a system is susceptible to and

unable to cope with the adverse effects of climate change including climate variability and extremes.

-function of:

1. the character, magnitude, and the rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed;

2. sensitivity of natural and social systems to weather and climate (geographic characteristic; the characteristic of the population-level of development and demographic structure;

3. adaptation measures/ actions in place to reduce the burden of adverse (economic, health) outcomes population13

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Vulnerable populations…• Refugees• Indigenous and native peoples• Nomadic populations• Elderly people• Children• Women• People with chronic illnes• People with low income• Homeless people

( Urban poor )14

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Considerations in Addressing Climate Change

• CC has 5 dimensions- scientific, technical, economic, social, political

• CC is both an environment and a development issue.

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Challenges in Addressing CC…

• Recognize the clear link between Climate Change & Sustainable Development

… that the worsening adverse impacts of CC spawned by increasing build-up of GHG emissions into the atmosphere are clear manifestations of a flawed development model that pursues sustainable economic growth…

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Challenges…• CC-SD link through:

- ‘Change Climate lens’ - how CC policies could accomplish SD

- ‘Sustainable Development lens’ - how alternative development pathways could shape future GHG emissions, thus influence the capacity of communities to cope with CC

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Challenges…

• Need to create an enabling policy and institutional framework that will facilitate the mainstreaming of CC in the development process both at the national and international levels- lead to the implementation of policy actions that will reduce the vulnerability and increase the resilience of poor local communities to climate and disaster risk

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RESPONDING to Climate Change Challenges

PMP of Climate Change• Prevention (P)• Mitigation (M)• Preparedness (P)

>> HAZARD Analysis>> VULNERABILITY assessment>> ADAPTATION measures>> IEC, Research, Early Warning Systems, etc.

WMO

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Mitigation… Anthropogenic intervention to

-reduce the anthropogenic forcing of the climate system; includes strategies to reduce greenhouse gas sources and emissions and enhancing greenhouse gas sinks (CC).

-reduce the adverse effects of CC impacts on vulnerable groups (CCA-DRR)

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Mitigation measures…

• Change of lifestyle

• Process/product design

• Fuel switch

• Energy efficiency

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Adaptation…

Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities.

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Why is adaptation necessary?

• Main way by which societies can address the impacts of warming; to compliment emission reduction measures (mitigation).

• Moderate damage on natural ecosystems due to the inevitable impacts, and more severe impacts predicted in the future.

• Reduce the vulnerability of highly vulnerable ecosystems and populations to climate change.

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Adaptation: Key Points Adaptation as being complimentary to

mitigation (IPCC AR3, 2001)…

- Adaptation has potentials to reduce adverse impacts significantly, but will not be able to prevent all damages.

- Natural ecosystems are only allowed to adapt to CC ex post while human systems have the ability to make anticipatory adaptation.

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Key Points…

- Planned adaptation can reduce vulnerability and offer the potential to take advantage of available opportunities.

- The cost of adaptation often are marginal to other management or development cost.

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Key Points…

-National adaptation strategies must fit in with national plans for development and poverty reduction.

-To improve the effectiveness of adaptation to CC, it is necessary to:

-- consider the stresses other than climate.

-- ensure consistency with existing policy efforts, development objectives and systems (that lessen pressure on resources and improve management of environmental risk).26

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Key Points… -The ability to adapt differs by region, country,

and social group, and changes over time.

-The ability for adaptation depends on wealth, technology, information, skills, infrastructure, management, capabilities, access to resources.

-Adaptation is a serious issue for developed and developing countries; for small island states, adaptation must be the main response to Climate Change.

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Adaptation: Key IssuesDifferences in key features:

Mitigation..Adaptation

** Impacts & scope

of measures global local

** Time until effects

are felt long short

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Differences in key features… Mitigation…..Adaptation

** Criteria GHG red’n - No common

Inc. of sinks measure to

evaluate

the adapt’n

to different

impacts

** Target countries -Annex 1 -All countries29

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Adapting to climate change (IPCC-WM0)

• Various types of adaptation:

>>anticipatory (proactive),

>>reactive,

>>autonomous (spontaneous)

>>planned

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Potential Adaptive Responses

• Technological

• Behavioural

• Managerial

• Policy

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Adaptations to: DROUGHT/DRYING - (IPCC-AR4, 2007) * Food, Fiber and Forestry

Crops: development of new drought-resistant varieties; intercropping; crop residue retention; weed management; irrigation; water harvesting

Livestock: supplementary feeding; change in stocking rate; altered grazing and rotation of pasture

Social: Improved extension services; diversification of income (SL)* Water resources

Management of small water catchment areas; leak reductionWater demand management (metering and pricing)Soil moisture conservation e.g. mulchingEducation for sustainable water use

* Human healthGrain storage and provision of emergency feeding stationsProvision of safe drinking water and sanitationStrengthening of public institutions and health systemsAccess to international food markets

* Industry, settlement and Society

Improve adaptation capacities, especially for livelihoods

Incorporate climate change in development programmes

Improved water supply systems and co-ordination between jurisdictions

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Adaptations to: Increased Rainfall/Flooding (IPCC-AR4, 2007)

* Food, Fiber and ForestryCrops: Polders and improved drainage; development and

promotion of alternative crops; adjustment of plantation and harvesting schedule;

Social: Improved extension Services* Water resources

Enhanced implementation of protection measures including flood forecasting and warning, regulation through planning legislation and zoning; promotion of insurance* Human health

Early-warning systems; disaster preparedness planning; effective post-event emergency relief* Industry, settlement and Society

Improved flood protection infrastructure “Flood-proof” buildingsChange land use in high-risk areasManaged realignment and “Making Space for

Water”/emergency preparednessEmpower community institutions

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Adaptations to: Warming/Heatwaves (IPCC-AR4, 2007)

* Food, Fiber and ForestryCrops: Development of new heat-resistant varieties; altered timing of

cropping activities; pest control and surveillance of cropsLivestock: Housing and shade provision; change to heat-tolerant

breedsForestry: Fire management through altered stand layout, landscape

planning, dead timber salvaging, clearing undergrowth. Insect control through prescribed burning, non-chemical pest control

Social: Diversification of income* Water resources

Water demand management (metering and pricing)Education for sustainable water use

* Human healthInternational surveillance systems for disease emergenceStrengthening of public institutions and health systemsNational and regional heat warning systemsMeasures to reduce urban heat island effects through creating green

spacesChange of lifestyle

* Industry, settlement and SocietyAssistance programmes for especially vulnerable groupsTechnological change/change of lifestyle

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Adaptations to: Wind speed/Storminess (IPCC-AR4, 2007)

* Food, Fiber and ForestryCrops: Development of wind-resistant crops

* Water resourcesCoastal defense design and implementation to protect

water supply against contamination* Human health

Early-warning systems; disaster preparedness planning; effective post-event emergency relief* Industry, settlement and Society

Emergency preparedness/ early-warning systemsMore resilient infrastructureFinancial risk management options for both developed

and developing regions

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Responses to CC…

What are existing Institutional Framework and policies that address climate change?

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• International

Level-

- UNFCCC; 1992, 1994

- Kyoto Protocol, 1997, 200337

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UNFCCC; 1992 / 1994Ultimate objective is.. ‘to achieve the stabilization

of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference of the climate system. Such level should be achieve at a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner (Article 2).

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UNFCCC Principles

• …common but differentiated responsibility…

• …precautionary measure…

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Kyoto Protocol COP 3, Dec.1997, 2003

• 1st international policy on CC mitigation

• Sets legally binding targets for 37 industrialized countries and the EU (Annex I countries) for reducing GHG emissions to an average of 5.2% against their 1990 levels over the first commitment period, 2008-2012.

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3 Flexible Mechanisms

1. Emissions trading (ET)-Annex I countries buy and sell emission credits among themselves, domestically among governments, and between companies or within companies

2. Joint Implementation (JI)- Annex I countries obtain credits for emission reductions by investing in low-emission tech or the development of sinks in other industrialized countries.

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3. Clean Development Mechanism, CDM

- Annex I countries use investments in sustainable development in developing countries to purchase ‘certified emissions reductions’, CERs.

- aims to create an incentive for Annex I countries to supply financing and tech needed for developing countries to make the transition to cleaner production and develop low-emission pathways

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The Copenhagen (COP 15) Challenge… • A strong, effective and fair global deal on

the ‘4 building blocks’-Mitigation, Adaptation, Technology Development , Finance

-- Annex I countries must make mandatory, absolute commitments for deeper cuts than under Kyoto;

Bali- average of 25% to 40% below 1990 levels by 2020; 80% or more by 2050

-- Annex I countries facilitate tech transfer, & adequate, predictable, sustainable financing for mitigation and adaptation

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At the National Level…Significant Milestones in the

Philippines’ Response to Address Climate Change

Created the Inter-Agency Committee on Climate Change (IACCC) in May 1991

Signed the UNFCCC on June 1992 and ratified it on August 2, 1994

Signed the Kyoto Protocol on April 15, 1998 and ratified it on November 20, 2003

Designated the DENR as the National Authority for CDM on June 25, 2004 by virtue of Executive Order No. 320

Issued DENR Adm. Order 2005-17, August 2005 on the Implementing Rules and Regulations Governing E.O. 320

Created the Presidential Task Force on Climate Change (PTFCC) on Presidential Administrative Order No. 171Signed February 20, 2007

Created an Advisory Council on Climate Change Mitigation, Adaptation and Communication DENR Special Order No. 2007-653, September 25, 2007

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• Philippine National Action Plan on CC

Aimed at:-- integrating climate change concerns into

the government’s development plans and programs,

--develop adaptation response to climate change impacts,

--design mitigation measures which are “no regrets” in character;

Philippine Initiatives on Mitigation and Adaptation

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ADB Climate Change Project (1991)

–conducted vulnerability studies–generated a rapid assessment of

the country’s vulnerable sectors and areas to climate change (agriculture, water resources and coastal areas)

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Pipeline Projects onPipeline Projects onAdaptation and Mitigationto Adaptation and Mitigationto

Climate ChangeClimate Change

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Climate Change AdaptationPhase 1

GEF Implementing Agency/Executing Agency: The World Bank

• The proposed project, the first phase of a long-term adaptation by the Government of the Philippines, has the following four building blocks:

Improve coordination of adaptation policy by DENR Implement climate risk reduction in key productive

sectorsStrengthen proactive disaster management within

the NDCCEnhance provision of scientific information for

climate risk management

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MDG-F 1656 Joint Programme Proposal:Strengthening the Philippines’ Institutional Capacity to

Adapt to Climate Change• UNDP/Spain MDG Achievement Fund under the

MDG-F Country Thematic Window for Environment and Climate Change and is aligned with the priority area of “Enhancing Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change”

• Objective

Aims to achieve three outcomes in the area of:policy / planning / programming;capacity development of concerned national

govt. institutions and local governments and local higher educational institutions; and

capacity development of communities to develop demonstrable climate change adaptation measures.

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What are the opportunities for moving CC, CCM, CCA and DRR forward?

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• Existence of inter-agency and local special bodies that address climate and disaster risk.

NDCC- the inter-agency task to respond weather and climate-related disasters. The existence of DCCs at the national, provincial, city/municipal and barangay levels, provides the opportunities for greater cohesion and cross-sectoral participation on sharing of practices, experiences, expertise, and developing policy recommendations, tools, methods and approaches for assessing climate and disaster risks.

IACCC- on CDM

Opportunities…on Policy and Governance

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MOVING FORWARD… on Policy Reform and Governance

– Review the over-all existing economic development strategy to conform w/ the principles of PA21 localized and institutionalized at all levels of governance;

– Integration of DRR and CCA; develop and implement a comprehensive and coherent national policy strategy and framework that integrates CC-CCA. CCA-DRR into existing development/sectoral policies, plans (i.e.,MTPDP, land use plans and building code) and programs, as well as their institutional and funding mechanisms at the national and local levels;

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Opportunities…on Awareness and Capacity Building

• Integrated and holistic nature of CSOs’ intervention package that combines community organizing, IEC using popular tri-media, livelihood development, environmental protection and advocacy.

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Moving Forward…on Awareness and Capacity Building

- Production & dissemination of IEC mats on CC, CCM, CCA-DRR in popular form

- Mandatory curriculum integration and extensive IEC campaigns and capacity building programs to:

--develop ‘functional literacy’ on CC, CR, CCA

--produce a rich pool of community trainers & technicians

--facilitate integration of CC and CCA-DRR into business’ programs & initiatives

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Opportunities…on Livelihood Development

- Existing diversified sustainable livelihood/economic activities (off-farm, home-based micro-enterprise) to the poor, vulnerable, marginalized sectors.

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- Vigorously pursue the development, enhancement, replication and scaling up, and promotion of cost effective, environmentally sustainable, socially acceptable, culturally compatible technologies that build the capacity of business to mitigate CC, and of vulnerable communities to adapt to the adverse impacts while at the same time providing profit, income and employment opportunities

Moving Forward…on Technology Development and Diffusion

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Moving Forward…on Technology Development and Diffusion

• Strengthen linkages with research institutions to:

- facilitate sharing and exchange of knowledge and information among scientists/experts, business community, policy/decision makers, advocates and practitioners to foster better understanding of mitigative and adaptive technologies ;

- mainstream scientific evidence of socio-economic impacts/costs and benefits of mitigative and adapative technologies to provide a sound basis for policy and program formulation

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Opportunities…on Advocacy and Networking

-Existence of inter-sectoral coordination and stakeholder partnership

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Moving Forward…on Advocacy and Networking

Establish/ Strengthen:

• linkages/partnerships w/ NGOs, other CSOs, the academe and LGUs through collaborative projects, research and documentation on CCA-DRR

• CSO advocacy and lobby work at national and local levels to mainstream CC- CCA into development policy, plans and budgets

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Opportunities…on Financing

Availability of funding support from various donor agencies/institutions- NGOs, business and multilateral development agncies (UN Systems, AF, CCF, GEF, WBCIF, etc)

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- Allocate funding resources equitably for CC adaptation and mitigation projects ( technology development, awareness and capacity building, policy research, demo projects, etc)

-Promote micro-finance/insurance schemes such as

revolving credit mechanisms that mobilize own

savings of the poor and vulnerable sectors, and other

forms of social protection (i.e., employment support

through public works/food-for-work schemes)

;

Moving Forward…on Financing

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- Build and maintain a gender-disaggregated database (covering socio-economic and bio-physical and climatic data and information at the local/community level) that can serve as important inputs to local vulnerability and adaptation assessment and planning, and for the development of popular IEC materials for use and dissemination at the local level;

- Undertake collaborative research projects with academic/research institutions to bridge the gap between science, policy and practice, and to increase CSO capacity in research and documentation of local/community-based initiatives and practices that can enhance local adaptation;

Moving Forward…on Database/Knowledge

Management

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Moving Forward…on Database/Knowledge Management

• Develop and disseminate best practice tools and methodologies as inputs to mainstream CC and facilitate sharing and exchange of initiatives, lessons and experience gained from climate mitigation and adaptation intervention.

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Moving Forward…on Program Design and Management

- Develop & implement programs/projects with clearly defined intervention schemes (entry, consolidation/ strengthening, and phase-out) that will enhance human, social, financial, physical & natural capital of the poor and vulnerable sectors including women;

- Develop & institutionalize participatory monitoring & evaluation systems for comprehensive/sectoral programs/projects that incorporate CC-CCM, CC-CCA, and SD criteria and indicators against which to measure effectiveness and sustainability of prog/projects

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What can I do?

• Be Informed!

• Be Heard!

• Be Committed!

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THE GLOBAL POLITICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE…”we know the answers. We have capacities, financially and in technology. What I am worried about is that, still there is a lacking part, which is the political will”. Ban Ki Moon , UN Sec.Gen

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Thank You! Ma. Rosario G. Wood

mwood@mc.edu.ph

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